Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly preview of key events and data releases that could impact the futures market, including economic data from China and the US, agricultural reports, and central bank publications [2][3]. - It also presents expected values for various economic indicators and analyzes how different data outcomes might affect different types of futures prices [3][8]. Key Events and Data Releases January 12 - China's central bank will release December 2025 financial statistics, with expected social financing scale increment of 1950 billion yuan, social financing scale stock growth of 8.2%, new RMB loans of 750 billion yuan, and M2 growth of 7.9% [3]. - China's Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs will publish the monthly report on the supply - demand situation of agricultural products [4]. January 13 - The US Department of Agriculture will release the monthly crop supply - demand report and quarterly grain inventory report [5][6]. - The US Labor Department will announce the December 2025 CPI, with expected unadjusted CPI annual rate of 2.7%, unadjusted core CPI annual rate of 2.7%, core CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment, and CPI monthly rate of 0.3% after seasonal adjustment [8]. - The US Commerce Department will disclose the October 2025 new home sales, with an expected annualized total of 705,000 units [9]. January 14 - The US Energy Information Administration will issue the monthly short - term energy outlook report [10]. - China will hold a press conference to introduce the 2025 annual and December import - export situation, with expected December export growth of 2.9% and import growth of 0.8% in US dollars [12]. - OPEC will publish the monthly crude oil market report [13]. - The US Commerce Department will announce December 2025 retail sales, with expected monthly rates of 0.4% for retail sales and core retail sales [14]. - The US Labor Department will release December 2025 PPI, with expected monthly rate of 0.2% and annual rate of 2.6% [15]. - The US National Association of Realtors will disclose December 2025 existing home sales, with an expected annualized total of 4.22 million units [16]. - The US Energy Information Administration will announce the EIA crude oil inventory change for the week ending January 9, with the previous value being a decrease of 3.832 million barrels [17]. January 15 - The Federal Reserve will publish the economic situation Beige Book [18]. - The US Labor Department will announce the initial jobless claims for the week ending January 10, with an expected value of 210,000 [19]. January 16 - The Federal Reserve will release December 2025 industrial output, with an expected monthly rate of 0.2% [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained at a low level last week due to the New Year's Day holiday, with only 2 new bonds issued, totaling approximately $38 million. The secondary market's high-yield segment outperformed the investment-grade segment. The yields of short - and long - term US Treasuries showed a divergent trend [1][2][3]. Summary by Directory 1. Primary Market - Affected by the New Year's Day holiday, the primary market issuance of Chinese offshore bonds remained low, with 2 new bonds issued, totaling about $38 million. Chongqing Puli Development issued a senior bond worth 220 million RMB, the largest issuance last week, and Zhangdian State - owned Assets issued a senior unsecured bond worth 48 million RMB with a coupon rate of 6.9%, the highest - priced new bond last week [7][8][10]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Chinese US Dollar Bond Index Performance - The Chinese US dollar bond index (Bloomberg Barclays) declined 0.04% week - on - week, while the emerging market US dollar bond index rose 0.03%. The investment - grade index of Chinese US dollar bonds closed at 202.6423, down 0.06% week - on - week, and the high - yield index closed at 160.354, up 0.11% week - on - week. The Chinese US dollar bond return index (Markit iBoxx) rose 0.03% week - on - week. The investment - grade return index closed at 244.3846, up 0.01% week - on - week, and the high - yield return index closed at 241.6935, up 0.16% week - on - week [11][14]. 2.2 Chinese US Dollar Bond Performance by Industry - Different industries showed different yield changes. The communication and energy sectors led the rise, with yields down 14.6bps and 5.8bps respectively. The real estate and essential consumer sectors led the decline, with yields up 13.7Mbps and 99.9bps respectively [18][23]. 2.3 Chinese US Dollar Bond Performance by Different Ratings - According to Bloomberg's comprehensive ratings, investment - grade names generally declined, with the weekly yield of A - rated names up 0.8bps and that of BBB - rated names up 1.9bps. Most high - yield names declined, with the yield of BB - rated names down 4.1bps, the yield of DD+ to NR - rated names up about 12.0bps, and the yield of unrated names up 4.4Mbps [20]. 2.4 Hot Events in the Bond Market Last Week - China Jinmao provided asset collateral for the debt of "23 Jinmao MTN001". Fantasia Group had overdue borrowing principal of 1.4411 billion yuan as of November 30, 2025. Shanghai Shimao Construction had new overdue interest - bearing debts of about 1.85 billion yuan from December 22 to 28, 2025 [24][25][26]. 2.5 Main Rating Adjustments Last Week - Moody's downgraded Vanke's corporate family rating to Ca from Caa2 and maintained a negative outlook. United International rated Quzhou Grand Garden Group A - with a stable outlook. Zhongchengxin Asia - Pacific rated Sanya Urban Transport Group Ag - with a stable outlook [28]. 3. US Treasury Bond Quotes - The table shows the quotes of 30 US Treasury bonds with maturities over 6 months, sorted by yield to maturity from high to low, including information such as code, maturity date, current price, yield to maturity, and coupon [29]. 4. Macro Data Tracking - As of January 2, the yields of US Treasury bonds showed different trends. The 1 - year yield was 3.4666%, down 1.24bps from last week; the 2 - year yield was 3.4733%, down 0.57bps; the 5 - year yield was 3.7427%, up 4.69bps; and the 10 - year yield was 4.1907%, up 6.3bps [33]. 5. Macro News - The Fed's December meeting minutes showed serious disagreements. The US initial jobless claims were lower than expected. New US tax measures for some cross - border remittances came into effect. The Bank of Korea will comprehensively revise monetary and liquidity statistics. The Bank of Japan's December policy meeting minutes hinted at future interest rate hikes. Turkey implemented a visa - free policy for Chinese ordinary passport holders. China's manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and composite PMIs in December 2025 all entered the expansion zone. China's service trade grew steadily in the first 11 months of 2025. China had a current account surplus of $492.8 billion in the first three quarters of 2025. The operating income of state - owned enterprises from January to November 2025 increased 1% year - on - year. China's foreign debt scale decreased steadily. The 2026 national subsidy plan was officially released. The decline in China's national commercial housing transaction volume in 2025 narrowed compared to the previous year. The average price of new homes in 100 Chinese cities in December 2025 increased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while the average price of second - hand homes decreased. The auto market is expected to have positive growth in January 2026 and face more pressure in February [32][34][40].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a macroeconomic calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data releases and meetings that could impact market conditions and investment strategies [1]. Domestic Data - PMI data is scheduled for release on January 31, February 4, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30, October 31, November 30, and December 31 [1]. - Foreign trade data will be released on March 14, February 10, February 14, June 9, February 9, February 14, and December 10 [1]. - Financial data is expected to be published between 16:00 and 19:00 on January 12, February 13, March 13, April 13, May 12, June 12, July 13, August 14, September 11, October 12, November 13, and December 11 [1]. - Price data will be available on January 9:30, February 11, March 9, April 10, May 11, June 10, July 9, August 9, September 14, October 9, November 9, and December 9 [1]. - Industrial enterprise profit data is set for release on January 9:30, February 271, March 271, April 271, May 271, June 271, July 271, August 271, September 271, October 271, November 271, and December 271 [1]. Overseas Data - U.S. non-farm employment data will be released on the 9th of each month from January to December [1]. - U.S. CPI data is scheduled for January 13, February 11, March 11, April 10, May 12, June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10 [1]. - U.S. GDP data will be published on April 29, with no specific dates for other months [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for April 29, September 19, and June 30 [1]. - The European Central Bank's interest rate meeting is scheduled for April 5, April 19, and April 30 [1]. Important Meetings - The Central Economic Work Conference will take place in mid-December [1]. - The Political Bureau meeting focused on economic research is expected at the end of each month [1]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference is scheduled for April 24-27 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides a macroeconomic calendar for 2026, detailing important economic data releases and meetings that could impact market conditions and investment strategies [1]. Domestic Data - PMI data is scheduled for release on January 31, February 4, March 31, April 30, May 31, June 30, July 31, August 31, September 30, October 31, November 30, and December 31 [1]. - Foreign trade data will be released on March 14, February 10, February 14, June 9, February 14, and December 10 [1]. - Financial data is expected to be published between 16:00 and 19:00 on January 12, February 13, March 13, April 13, May 12, June 12, July 13, August 14, September 11, October 12, November 13, and December 11 [1]. - Price data will be available on January 9:30, February 11, March 9, April 10, May 11, June 10, July 9, August 9, September 14, October 9, November 9, and December 9 [1]. - Industrial enterprise profit data is set for release on January 9:30, February 271, March 271, April 271, May 271, June 271, July 271, August 271, September 271, October 271, November 271, and December 271 [1]. Overseas Data - U.S. non-farm employment data will be released on January 9, February 6, March 6, April 3, May 8, June 5, July 2, August 4, September 21, October 6, November 4, and December 4 [1]. - U.S. CPI data is scheduled for January 13, February 11, March 11, April 10, May 12, June 10, July 14, August 12, September 11, October 14, November 10, and December 10 [1]. - U.S. GDP data will be available on April 29, with no specific dates for other months [1]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting is set for April 29, September 19, and November 1 [1]. Important Meetings - The Central Economic Work Conference is expected to occur in mid-December [1]. - The Political Bureau meeting focused on economic research is scheduled for the end of each month [1]. - The Boao Forum for Asia Annual Conference will take place from April 24 to April 27 [1].

Group 1 - The article outlines key upcoming economic events and data releases in the U.S. and China, including the EIA natural gas inventory report and the Federal Reserve meeting minutes, which are critical for market analysis [1][2] - It highlights the importance of the U.S. December Manufacturing PMI report, which is expected to provide insights into the manufacturing sector's performance [1] - The article mentions various inventory reports from China, including rebar production, steel mill stocks, and methanol inventories, which are essential for understanding the domestic commodity market dynamics [1][2] Group 2 - The article details the weekly inventory data for soybean meal and the operating rates of major oil mills in China, indicating trends in the oilseed processing industry [2] - It includes information on the USDA oilseed crushing report and the U.S. cotton on-call report, which are significant for agricultural commodity traders [2] - The article notes that reports may be delayed due to public holidays, emphasizing the need for timely updates in market analysis [2]

Group 1: Market Overview and Related Assets - US stock indices closed lower, with the Dow down 0.51%, Nasdaq down 0.5%, and S&P down 0.35%. Notably, Tesla fell over 3% and Nvidia dropped over 1% [1][5] - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index also declined by 0.67%, with significant drops in individual stocks such as 1药网 down 7.14% and 叮咚买菜 down 7.19% [1][5] - Precious metals experienced significant volatility, with spot gold falling 3.18% after dropping below $4390 per ounce, and spot silver down 9.24% after falling below $72 per ounce [1][5] Group 2: Macroeconomic and Market Analysis - The US November pending home sales index increased by 3.3% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 1%, while year-on-year it decreased by 0.3%, which was below the expected 0.1% [3][7] - The EIA announced a delay in the weekly oil status report, with notifications to be provided at least one hour in advance. Additionally, natural gas inventories decreased by 1660 billion cubic feet, slightly above the expected decrease of 1680 billion cubic feet [3][8] Group 3: International Focus and Geopolitical Issues - The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, with Russia claiming to have destroyed 91 drones aimed at President Putin's residence, while Ukraine's President Zelensky dismissed these claims as false [4][9] - US Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene criticized both parties for contributing to nearly $40 trillion in national debt and ongoing overseas conflicts, suggesting this has led to disillusionment among younger Americans towards the two major parties [4][9]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No information about the report's industry investment rating is provided. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, but there are still long - term expectations of monetary easing. The Treasury bond futures are expected to maintain a volatile consolidation in the short term, with both upward pressure and downward support [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2603 variety, the short - term and medium - term trends are both volatile, and the intraday trend is weak. The reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that the short - term probability of interest rate cuts is low, while long - term easing expectations remain [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties such as TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is weak, the medium - term view is volatile, and the reference view is volatile consolidation. The core logic is that Treasury bond futures had a small volatile correction yesterday. Due to the moderately loose monetary policy and the expected loose monetary environment next year, Treasury bond futures have strong support and have recently rebounded from the bottom. However, the current macro - economic data is resilient, so there is no strong urgency for a full - scale interest rate cut in the short term. Moreover, the supply - side pressure from the intensive issuance of Treasury bonds in the first quarter restricts the upward rebound of Treasury bond futures, causing resistance to their further upward movement [5].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical tensions around Venezuela and Ukraine have caused a pulse - like "risk premium" in the oil market, but the substantial global supply tightening due to Venezuela's supply disruption is expected to be limited. Geopolitical premiums tend to provide short - term rebound momentum for oil prices [1]. - The strong GDP data in the US third - quarter initially caused a decline in precious metals, but geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals, and attention should be paid to capital movements [2]. - Most commodities are in a state of complex supply - demand and market sentiment, with many showing range - bound oscillations. Some commodities are affected by geopolitical factors, while others are influenced by seasonal demand, cost changes, and policy expectations. Summaries by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical tensions drive price rebounds, but supply tightening is limited. US shale oil production remains high despite reduced drilling and fracturing activities [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil demand lacks upward drivers, and the trading focus is on supply disruptions. High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical factors in the short - term but faces a supply - surplus situation in the medium - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be weak due to refinery device changes [19]. - **Asphalt**: Weekly shipments are at a low level, and inventories are accumulating. Geopolitical factors may provide short - term cost - side support, but the price will eventually be pressured by supply - demand looseness [20]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold has reached a new high, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the upward trend of precious metals. Attention should be paid to capital movements during the Christmas holiday [2]. - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: The price has reached a new high. In the first quarter of next year, the market is pricing in the tight supply at the mine end in advance. There may be short - term adjustments, but the long - position demand for the first - quarter contract remains strong [3]. - **Aluminum**: The fundamentals are not prominent, and it mainly follows the upward trend of other metals. Long - positions can be held with the 40 - day moving average as support [4]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has difficulty following the upward trend at high levels, and the price difference with Shanghai aluminum remains around 1,000 yuan [5]. - **Alumina**: The production capacity is at a historical high, the supply - surplus pattern is hard to change, and the inventory is rising [6]. - **Zinc**: The price is in a rebound trend, and it is expected to oscillate between 22,800 - 23,800 yuan/ton [7]. - **Lead**: The price is expected to oscillate between 16,700 - 17,300 yuan/ton, and inventory pressure needs to be monitored [8]. - **Tin**: The price has declined. The supply is expected to turn around in the first quarter of 2026, and high prices are suppressing consumption. Attention should be paid to the risk at high levels [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is oscillating strongly due to the expected production cuts at the end of the month, but the demand is under pressure, and the upward space is limited [10]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Manganese Silicon**: The price is oscillating. Manganese ore prices have increased slightly, and it is recommended to buy on dips [16]. - **Silicon Iron**: The price is rising. Supply has decreased significantly, and demand remains resilient. It is recommended to buy on dips [17]. Building Materials - **Steel Products** - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: The price has declined at night. Rebar demand has recovered slightly, and inventory is decreasing. Hot - rolled coil supply and demand are both decreasing, and inventory reduction is accelerating. The overall market is in range - bound oscillations [12]. - **Iron Ore**: The price has declined. Supply is expected to be strong, and demand is weak. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [13]. - **Coke**: The price is oscillating strongly. The third - round price cut has been implemented, and the price is likely to oscillate [14]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is oscillating widely. Production has decreased slightly, and the price is likely to oscillate after repairing the discount [15]. - **Glass**: The price is oscillating. Inventory is increasing, and demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [30]. Chemicals - **Polyolefins** - **Polypropylene & Plastic & Propylene**: The supply is relatively abundant, and demand is weak. The market is cautious, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to improve in the short - term [25]. - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC is oscillating strongly, with supply pressure easing and demand remaining low. Caustic soda is also oscillating strongly, with high supply pressure and limited demand growth [26]. - **Aromatics** - **Pure Benzene**: The price is oscillating weakly. Supply and demand pressure may ease, and it is recommended to consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [23]. - **Styrene**: Supply and demand are expected to increase, but supply may increase more than demand. The support from pure benzene is limited [24]. - **Others** - **PX & PTA**: PX prices have risen due to supply reduction expectations. PTA supply may increase, and downstream demand is expected to decline [27]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price has declined significantly. Supply is expected to increase in the long - term, and the price is under pressure [28]. - **Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip**: Raw material prices are squeezing profits. Short - fiber supply - demand is relatively good in the long - term, and bottle - chip has over - capacity problems [29]. - **Urea**: The market is affected by export quota rumors, and the supply - surplus pattern continues. The price is oscillating in a range [21]. - **Methanol**: The short - term price may oscillate weakly, and there is an upward driver in the long - term. Attention should be paid to the 5 - 9 spread [22]. Agricultural Products - **Oilseeds and Oils** - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The开机率 of domestic oil mills has increased, and soybean meal inventory is expected to rise. The trading logic focuses on US soybean exports and South American weather [33]. - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil is rebounding, and soybean oil has declined after rising. Attention should be paid to fundamental changes [34]. - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The domestic oil mill is not operating, and imports have been announced. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [35]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The price is stable and strong due to the premium in the auction [36]. - **Grains** - **Corn**: The price is slowly declining. Supply - demand mismatch has eased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [37]. - **Egg**: The futures market shows a near - weak and far - strong pattern. It is recommended to consider the 2 - 4 or 2 - 5 spread strategy [39]. - **Cotton**: The price is rising. US cotton sales data is good, and domestic cotton inventory is relatively low. It is recommended to buy on dips [40]. - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production progress and expectations vary by region. Attention should be paid to subsequent production [41]. - **Apple**: The price is oscillating. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is bearish [42]. - **Timber**: The price is at a low level. Supply is decreasing, demand in the off - season is okay, and inventory is low. It is recommended to wait and see [43]. - **Pulp**: The price is oscillating. Port inventory is decreasing, and the price is supported. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [44]. Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share indexes rose, and the risk appetite of equity assets has been supported. Attention should be paid to the rotation and repair opportunities of low - level sectors [45]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury futures rose. The long - term interest rate has risen significantly, and the yield curve is likely to steepen [46]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: The spot market is in a game between strong expectations and weak reality. Near - month contracts are expected to oscillate around the spot price [18].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Today, Treasury bond futures fluctuated and pulled back. Currently, there is pressure above and support below Treasury bond futures, with weak driving forces, so they are expected to maintain a fluctuating consolidation. On the one hand, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the monetary policy environment next year is expected to be loose, with interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio cuts still anticipated. Coupled with the weak implied interest rate cut expectations in the current market interest rates, Treasury bond futures have strong support. On the other hand, in the short term, macroeconomic data shows strong resilience, and the urgency for a comprehensive interest rate cut in the short term is not high. Coupled with fewer uncertainties and disturbances in the recent internal and external environment, Treasury bond futures lack upward drivers. In general, Treasury bond futures will mainly fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News and Related Charts - On December 22, the People's Bank of China authorized the National Interbank Funding Center to announce the latest LPR quotation. The 1-year LPR was reported at 3.0%, the same as last month; the 5-year and above LPR was reported at 3.5%, also the same as last month. Thus, the LPR quotations for both tenors have remained unchanged for 7 consecutive months. On December 22, the central bank conducted 6.73 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase operations today, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%, the same as before [6]

Report Summary Core Viewpoints - The report provides a weekly hotspots preview, including important economic data releases and policy events, and analyzes their potential impacts on the futures market [2][3]. Key Events and Forecasts December 22 - China's central bank will announce the December 2025 Loan Prime Rate (LPR). The expected 1 - year LPR is 3.00% and the 5 - year - plus LPR is 3.50%, both unchanged from the previous values [3]. December 23 - The US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of Q3 2025 GDP. The expected real GDP annualized quarterly rate is 3.2%, compared to 3.8% in Q2. A slightly lower Q3 rate may mildly boost precious metal futures prices but suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices [4]. - The US Department of Commerce will release the initial value of November durable goods orders. The expected month - on - month rate is - 1.4%, lower than the previous value of 0.5%. A lower value may suppress non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices but mildly boost precious metal futures prices [5]. - The Fed will release November industrial output. The expected month - on - month rate is 0.1%, the same as the previous value [7]. - The US Conference Board will release the December consumer confidence index. The expected value is 91.7, higher than the previous value of 88.7. A higher value may suppress precious metal futures prices but boost non - ferrous metals, crude oil and related commodity futures prices [8]. December 24 - The National Bureau of Statistics will announce the mid - December market prices of important production materials in the circulation field, covering 9 categories and 50 products [9]. - The US Department of Labor will release the initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20. The expected number is 215,000, lower than the previous value of 224,000. A slightly lower number may mildly boost non - precious industrial product futures prices but suppress precious metal futures prices [10]. - The US EIA will release the change in EIA crude oil inventories for the week ending December 19. The expected decline is 1.5 million barrels, more than the previous decline of 1.274 million barrels. A continued decline may boost crude oil and related commodity futures prices [11]. December 25 - There will be 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing. The central bank is expected to conduct an increased - volume roll - over of MLF at 09:25 [12]. December 27 - The National Bureau of Statistics will release the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size from January to November and for November alone. From January to October, the profits decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, while in October, they increased by 1.9% year - on - year [13].