Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend judgments and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and analyzes the impact of macro - economic and industry news on commodity prices. For example, gold is affected by government shutdown on liquidity, copper lacks clear driving forces and shows price fluctuations, etc. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Government shutdown continues to affect liquidity, with a trend intensity of 0. The price of Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 912.26 yesterday, down 0.36%, and the night - session closed at 916.38, up 0.63% [5]. - **Silver**: Shows an oscillating rebound, with a trend intensity of - 1. The price of Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 11276 yesterday, up 0.33%, and the night - session closed at 11381, up 1.58% [5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks clear driving forces, with price oscillations and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 85670 yesterday, down 0.08%, and the night - session closed at 85900, up 0.27% [9]. - **Zinc**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22650 yesterday, down 0.09% [12]. - **Lead**: Overseas inventory reduction supports the price, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17475 yesterday, up 0.34% [16]. - **Tin**: Attention should be paid to macro - impacts, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 282090 yesterday, down 0.58%, and the night - session closed at 282820, up 0.28% [19]. - **Aluminum**: Runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21395 yesterday, down 70 [23]. - **Alumina**: Bounces back from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2772 yesterday, up 2 [23]. - **Nickel**: Accumulated inventory at the smelting end suppresses the price, while uncertainties at the ore end provide support, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 120030 yesterday, up 330 [26]. - **Stainless Steel**: The steel price runs in a narrow range at a low level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12535 yesterday, down 10 [26]. Energy Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 77800 yesterday, up 640 [30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The warehouse receipts are cleared, and the market is strong, with a trend intensity of 1. The closing price of the Si2601 contract was 9020 yesterday, up 135 [34]. - **Polysilicon**: The market may correct as the news - based expectations are not met, with a trend intensity of - 1. The closing price of the PS2601 contract was 53355 yesterday, down 360 [34]. - **Iron Ore**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 12601 contract was 776.0 yesterday, up 0.5 [37]. - **Rebar**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the RB2601 contract was 3024 yesterday, down 37 [40]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by the sector sentiment, it oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the HC2601 contract was 3253 yesterday, down 28 [40]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: There is a game between long and short forces, with wide - range oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the silicon ferrosilicon 2601 contract was 5560 yesterday, up 50 [44]. - **Manganese Silicide**: There is a game between long and short forces, with wide - range oscillations, and a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the manganese silicide 2601 contract was 5776 yesterday, up 22 [44]. - **Coke**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1753 yesterday, up 24 [48]. - **Coking Coal**: Repeats at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1268.5 yesterday, up 15.5 [48]. - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly, with a trend intensity of 0. The closing price of the 2511 contract was 741 yesterday, up 0.1% [51]. - **Para - Xylene**: Aromatic blending oil supports the valuation, with a high - level oscillating market [54]. - **PTA**: The demand is acceptable, but there is still supply pressure, with a high - level oscillating market [54]. - **MEG**: The supply pressure is large, and the trend is weak [54].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has witnessed the realization of expectations and a short - term correction. With a tight supply at the mine end, it is advisable to go long on SHFE copper at low levels [1] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price Data - The market was strong in the first half of the week, with the spot premium declining and rebounding in the second half [11] - The LME copper 0 - 3M premium strengthened on a week - on - week basis [12] 3.2 Fundamental Data - The average price of the copper concentrate TC index increased by $0.55/ton week - on - week to - $42.15/ton, still at a low level [16] - The inventory of copper concentrates at ten ports decreased by 52,000 tons week - on - week to 626,100 tons [19] - The price difference between refined and scrap copper strengthened on a week - on - week basis [21] - China's electrolytic copper production in October decreased month - on - month [23] - China imported 485,000 tons of unwrought copper and copper products in September, and the cumulative import volume from January to September decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [25] - The spot inventory of electrolytic copper increased week - on - week, while the bonded area inventory decreased slightly [28] - LME copper continued to see inventory reduction, while COMEX copper continued to accumulate inventory [29] - The weekly operating rate of refined copper rods decreased, and the high price significantly suppressed downstream procurement [32] - From October 1st to 26th, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the Chinese market were flat year - on - year [34] - The shipments of leading photovoltaic module enterprises were satisfactory, and centralized projects showed signs of recovery [35] - The planned production volume of household air conditioners in November decreased by 23.7% compared with the actual production volume of the same period last year [36] 3.3 Macroeconomic Data - China's official manufacturing PMI in October dropped to 49, while the non - manufacturing index rose to 50.1 [39] - The European Central Bank maintained the deposit rate at 2% for the third time, and the economic resilience withstood the headwinds of trade [41] - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points in the October meeting and will end the balance sheet reduction in December [42]

Core Insights - The Indian stock markets are expected to be influenced by quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcements, and global trends during a holiday-shortened week [1][3] Macroeconomic Data - Key macroeconomic indicators to be released include the final readings of the HSBC manufacturing PMI, as well as the HSBC services and composite PMI data, which will provide insights into domestic growth momentum [3][5] Corporate Earnings - Major companies set to announce their quarterly results include Bharti Airtel, Titan Company, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, InterGlobe Aviation, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Lupin, Bajaj Auto, and Hindalco [4][7] - The ongoing corporate earnings season has shown mixed results so far, which will be closely monitored by the market [7] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign investors have turned net buyers with a net infusion of ₹14,610 crore in October after three months of withdrawals, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [5][6] Market Trends - The BSE benchmark dropped by 273.17 points (0.32%) and the NSE Nifty dipped by 73.05 points (0.28%) last week, reflecting profit-booking by investors after a sustained rally [6][7] - Movements in the Indian rupee against the dollar will also significantly impact investor sentiment and sectoral trends [6]

Core Insights - The Indian stock markets are expected to be influenced by quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcements, and global trends during a holiday-shortened week [1][2] Macroeconomic Data - Key macroeconomic indicators to be released include the final readings of the HSBC manufacturing PMI, as well as the HSBC services and composite PMI data, which will provide insights into domestic growth momentum [2][5] Corporate Earnings - Major companies set to announce their quarterly results include Bharti Airtel, Titan Company, Adani Enterprises, Adani Ports, InterGlobe Aviation, Mahindra & Mahindra, State Bank of India, Lupin, Bajaj Auto, and Hindalco [3] Foreign Investment Activity - Foreign investors have turned net buyers with a net infusion of ₹14,610 crore in October after three months of withdrawals, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment [4] Market Trends - The BSE benchmark dropped by 273.17 points or 0.32%, while the NSE Nifty decreased by 73.05 points or 0.28% last week, reflecting profit-booking by investors after a sustained rally [6][7] Global Influences - Developments related to trade deals and trends in major international markets will be closely monitored for directional cues, alongside the ongoing corporate earnings season which has shown mixed results [3][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The short - term and medium - term outlook for Treasury bond futures is mainly characterized by consolidation, with limited upside and downside potential. Short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased, but medium - and long - term expectations of a loose monetary policy remain. The market is supported by the need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient domestic effective demand, but short - term upward momentum is lacking as the macro - economic data shows strong resilience and the necessity for a full - scale interest rate cut is low [1][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are "sideways", "sideways", and "sideways with a weak bias" respectively, with an overall view of "sideways". The core logic is that short - term expectations of interest rate cuts have decreased while medium - and long - term expectations of a loose policy remain [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price and Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The varieties TL, T, TF, and TS have an intraday view of "sideways with a weak bias" and a medium - term view of "sideways", with a reference view of "sideways". The core logic is that Treasury bond futures consolidated yesterday. After the meeting between the Chinese and US presidents, Sino - US economic and trade issues have been substantially eased, reducing uncertainty risks. Domestically, although there is a need for a loose monetary environment in the long run due to insufficient effective demand, the macro - economic data shows strong resilience, making a full - scale interest rate cut less necessary. Therefore, in the short term, Treasury bond futures have limited upside and downside potential and will mainly consolidate [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Asset Category | Rating | | --- | --- | | Gold | Bearish | | Dollar | Sideways | | US Stocks | Sideways | | A-Shares | Sideways | | Treasury Bonds | Slightly Bearish and Sideways | [31] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US government shutdown continues, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting is coming up, and the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm are the focus of market games. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term [6]. - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, with most global stock markets rising. The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and major currencies show different trends. Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. The commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend [8][12][17][29]. - Different asset classes are expected to show different trends next week. Gold lacks upward momentum and has a callback risk; the dollar is expected to fluctuate; US stocks are supported but volatile; A - shares are affected by top - level planning and liquidity; treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly [31]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Context Tracking - The US government shutdown persists, and the macro data is in a vacuum. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, supporting two interest rate cuts by the Fed this year. The market has fully priced in the cuts, and the downside space for US bond yields is limited. The upcoming 10 - month Fed interest rate meeting will focus on the future interest rate cut path and balance - sheet reduction rhythm. The short - term market is more affected by macro news, and the market volatility remains high. The sanctions on Russia by the US and Europe amplify short - term energy price fluctuations, while the marginal relaxation of Sino - US negotiations boosts market risk appetite. The domestic market is boosted by macro events and themes, deviating from the economic fundamentals in the short term. The Fourth Plenary Session's top - level planning for the technology industry supports the stock market's risk appetite, while the bond market lacks a trading mainline and shows a slightly weak and sideways trend [6]. 3.2 Global Asset Class Trends Overview 3.2.1 Equity Market - Global market risk appetite continues to recover, and most global stock markets rise. In developed markets, the S&P 500 rises 1.92%, the Nikkei 225 rises 3.61%, the South Korean KOSPI index rises 5.14%, and the German DAX index rises 1.72%. In emerging markets, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 2.88%, the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rises 3.62%, and the Taiwan Weighted Index rises 0.84%. The MSCI Global Index shows that emerging markets > global > developed > frontier [8][10]. 3.2.2 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index fluctuates at a high level, finally closing at 98.9, appreciating 0.39% from last week. The RMB exchange - rate index remains the same as the previous value, and the RMB appreciates slightly against the US dollar. The Mexican peso depreciates 0.46%, the Brazilian real appreciates 0.26%, the euro depreciates 0.22%, the yen depreciates 1.5%, the won depreciates 1.2%, the pound depreciates 0.86%, and the Australian dollar appreciates 0.29% [12][13]. 3.2.3 Bond Market - Global major national 10 - year treasury bond yields fluctuate. In developed countries, the US bond yield remains at 4.02%, with limited downside space; the Japanese treasury bond yield rises 3bp; the UK treasury bond yield falls 12bp; the German treasury bond yield rises 5bp. In emerging market countries, the Chinese treasury bond yield rises 2bp to 1.85%, the Brazilian treasury bond yield falls 21bp, and the Indonesian treasury bond yield rises 7bp [17][18]. 3.2.4 Commodity Market - This week, the global commodity futures and spot markets show a divergent trend, with the futures index rebounding significantly and the spot index continuing to fall. Affected by geopolitical risks, energy prices rise, with WTI crude oil rising 7.32% to $61.4 per barrel. The metal sector shows a differentiated performance, with LME copper rising 3.21% and LME aluminum rising 2.81%. The precious - metal sector continues to correct, with COMEX gold falling 3.3% and silver falling 4.38% as of Friday. The domestic commodity market shows a differentiated performance, with the energy - chemical sector > industrial products > non - ferrous metals > black metals > agricultural products > precious metals [29]. 3.3 Weekly Outlook for Asset Classes 3.3.1 Precious Metals - Precious metals correct from high levels. After the geopolitical risks do not further intensify, long - position holders take profits. Geopolitical risks decline marginally, which is negative for gold. The US government shutdown continues, dragging down the economy and the employment market. The US September core CPI slightly drops to 3%, and the inflation pressure is generally controllable. The market has fully priced in a 25bp interest rate cut in the October interest rate meeting. Short - term gold prices lack upward momentum, and there is a risk of correction. The international gold price tests the support at the $4000 mark. The actual interest rate slightly rises to 1.75%, the 10 - year US bond yield returns to 4%, and the US bond yield has limited downside space. The dollar index fluctuates at a high level, and the RMB fluctuates. After the correction of the outer - market gold price, the discount of Shanghai gold narrows. The Comex gold futures speculative data suspension is due to the government shutdown, the SPDR Gold ETF holdings slightly drop to 1047 tons, and the Shanghai gold positions are significantly reduced. The London silver spot price drops 6% to $48.5 per ounce, and the forced - buying market in the London spot market eases [32][40][47]. 3.3.2 Foreign Exchange - The market fluctuates significantly this week. The cease - fire agreement proposed by Ukraine and Europe raises the market's expectation of a cease - fire in the Russia - Ukraine conflict, causing a short - term plunge in safe - haven assets. However, Russia does not support a cease - fire based on the current actual control line, and the meeting between Trump and Putin is cancelled. The US September CPI is lower than expected, indicating that the inflation pressure in September is controllable, and the expectation of two interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 is basically determined, which boosts the market risk appetite. Sino - US trade negotiations are held in Malaysia, and it is expected that the short - term trade war will not intensify, but it is also difficult to reach a significant trade agreement. The dollar is expected to fluctuate in the short term [48]. 3.3.3 US Stocks - The US government shutdown is still deadlocked, and the market fluctuates mainly due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations and earnings data. Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the tension eases this week. As corporate earnings are released, the market continues to raise its profit expectations, and corporate profits expand steadily. Large technology companies will release their earnings next week, which may further boost the market. The overall view of US stocks is bullish, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility caused by corporate earnings falling short of expectations and the twists and turns in Sino - US negotiations. Cyclical sectors lead the index, and the technology sector remains strong. The market risk appetite recovers, with only the consumer staples and utilities sectors recording declines. As earnings are released, the market profit expectations continue to rise, and the expected profit growth rate for Q3 rises to 9.3%. Short - term Sino - US negotiations are tortuous, and the market is more volatile [53][65]. 3.3.4 A - Shares - This week, the average daily trading volume of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets is 1.7975 trillion yuan, a decrease of 395.6 billion yuan compared with last week. All A - share sectors rise, with the ChiNext Index rising 8.05% and the BeiStock 50 rising 2.74%. Among the first - level industries, 27 rise and 3 fall. The leading industry is communication (+11.56%), and the lagging industry is agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-1.59%). The market ERP slightly declines, boosting the risk appetite. Attention should be paid to the rapid decline in A - share trading volume. If the trading volume continues to decline, the high - level and high - valuation situation of the stock index will lack support; if the trading volume stabilizes, the market may still be boosted by macro events and themes [66][76]. 3.3.5 Treasury Bonds - The main logic of the bond market is still unclear, mainly affected by multiple factors such as market risk appetite, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the tax period. There are many uncertain factors, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate slightly bearishly. However, the bond - market adjustment should be temporary. After November, there will be limited incremental policies, and the market risk appetite will lack a driving force to continue rising. The bond market should turn to focus on the fundamentals, and there should be a recovery market at that time. Currently, opportunities to buy on dips and play the trading range can be grasped. The 10Y - 1Y spread of treasury bonds narrows 4.91bp to 36.96bp, the 10Y - 5Y spread narrows 0.66bp to 22.52bp, and the 30Y - 10Y spread narrows 1.32bp to 36.54bp. As of the close on October 24, the settlement prices of the two - year, five - year, ten - year, and thirty - year treasury bond futures main contracts are 102.334, 105.615, 108.015, and 115.030 yuan respectively, with changes of - 0.044, - 0.160, - 0.250, and - 0.700 yuan compared with last weekend. The trading volumes of the 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures this week are 76,489, 154,308, 264,330, and 179,114 lots respectively, with changes of +1958, - 1892, +4151, and - 672 lots compared with last week [77][88]. 3.4 Global Macroeconomic Data Tracking 3.4.1 Overseas High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The GDPNow model estimates the Q3 growth rate at 3.9%, and the year - on - year growth rate of Redbook retail sales is 5%, with an average year - on - year growth rate of about 5% since the beginning of the year, indicating that the US economy maintains resilience. The bank reserve balance drops to 2.44 trillion, the TGA account balance rises to 905.1 billion, and the overnight reverse - repurchase scale drops to 2.44 billion, indicating that the market liquidity continues to tighten. The corporate - bond credit spread slightly declines, and the short - term credit risk decreases. The September CPI is slightly lower than expected, and the market fully prices in a 25bp interest rate cut in October and a further interest rate cut in December. The September CPI data shows that the year - on - year growth rate is 3%, the month - on - month growth rate is 0.3%, the core CPI year - on - year slightly drops to 3%, and the month - on - month growth rate drops to 0.2%, slightly lower than expected. This report consolidates the possibility of a 25bp interest rate cut next week and supports further interest rate cuts this year. However, the inflation risks in categories more affected by tariffs still exist [90][108][117]. 3.4.2 Domestic High - Frequency Economic Data Tracking - The real - estate transaction remains weak, with both volume and price continuing to decline. The Fourth Plenary Session has relatively few arrangements for real estate, and the market's expectation of stable housing prices weakens again. The financial data mostly shows a slightly weak performance, and the active financing demand of the real - economy sector is still weak. The M1 growth rate is high, but this rise does not represent an improvement in the real economy. The PPI year - on - year growth rate in September is - 2.3%, and the CPI year - on - year growth rate is - 0.3%. Although the PPI year - on - year reading rebounds, the momentum for price increases on a month - on - month basis is still insufficient, and it is difficult for upstream price increases to be transmitted to the terminal. China's exports in September (in US dollars) increase 8.3% year - on - year, and imports increase 7.4% year - on - year. The increase in import growth may be related to China's capacity upgrade and the increased demand for imported mechanical and electrical products and high - tech products [118][142][149][159]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of the futures market, including overnight and spot prices, weather conditions in major production areas, international and domestic supply - demand situations, macro - news, and fund flows. It also offers insights into potential impacts on the market based on these factors. 3. Summary by Section Overnight Market - The closing prices and daily/overnight percentage changes of various futures are presented, such as the BMD palm oil, ICE Brent crude, NYMEX WTI crude, CBOT soybeans, etc. For example, the BMD palm oil 01 closed at 4495.00 with a - 0.13% daily and - 0.29% overnight change [1]. - The latest prices and percentage changes of currency exchange rates, including the US dollar index, CNY/USD, MYR/USD, etc., are given. For instance, the US dollar index was at 98.95 with a 0.34% change [1]. Spot Market - Spot prices, basis, and basis daily changes of DCE palm oil, DCE soybean oil, and DCE soybean meal in different regions are reported. For example, the spot price of DCE palm oil 2601 in North China is 9490 with a basis of 90 and a 0 - change [2]. - CNF quotes and CNF premium/discounts for imported soybeans from different origins are provided. For example, the CNF quote for Brazilian soybeans is 488 dollars/ton with a 278 - cent/bu premium [2]. Production Area Weather - In the US, the soybean - producing states will have above - normal temperatures and precipitation from October 26 - 30. The Midwest will have limited precipitation from an approaching front, and the rainfall may relieve drought but delay crop harvest [3][5]. - Brazil will be drier this week, which is generally favorable for crops. A front will bring rain later, and the dry weather may allow farmers to plant soybeans quickly [6][7]. International Supply - Demand - SPPOMA reports that Malaysian palm oil production from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.71% month - on - month. AmSpec indicates that the palm oil export volume from October 1 - 20 increased by 2.5% compared to the same period last month [9]. - Anec forecasts that Brazil's soybean and soybean meal exports in October will be 734 and 209 million tons respectively [10]. - EU's imports of palm oil, soybeans, soybean meal, and rapeseed in the 2025/26 season are lower than the same period last year [11]. - Wet weather in Ukraine has damaged sunflower and soybean crops, reducing production forecasts [11][12]. - Australia's August rapeseed exports increased compared to July but decreased compared to the same month in 2024. The 2025/26 crop harvest has just begun [12]. - The Baltic Dry Index rose by 1.1% to 2094 points, supported by the increase in Capesize and Panamax freight rates [13]. Domestic Supply - Demand - On October 21, the total trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased by 59% compared to the previous day. The trading volume of soybean meal decreased, and the oil - mill operating rate increased slightly [15]. - As of October 21, the national soybean oil port inventory decreased by 3.1 million tons compared to October 14 [15]. - The "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" and the "Vegetable Basket Product Wholesale Price Index" increased on October 21. The prices of various agricultural products showed different changes [15]. Macro - news - International: The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in October is 98.9%. The annual growth rate of US Redbook retail sales from October 1 - 18 was 5%. The US API crude inventory decreased by 298.1 million barrels in the week ending October 17 [17]. - Domestic: On October 21, the USD/CNY exchange rate was adjusted downwards by 43 points, and the Chinese central bank conducted 1595 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 685 billion yuan [19]. Fund Flows - On October 21, the futures market had a net capital inflow of 12.172 billion yuan, including 3.152 billion yuan in commodity futures (with a 102 - million - yuan net outflow in agricultural futures, 319 - million - yuan net inflow in chemical futures, 874 - million - yuan net outflow in black - series futures, and 3.808 - billion - yuan net inflow in metal futures), 8.542 billion yuan in stock - index futures, and 385 million yuan in bond futures [22].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Macro - China's Q3 GDP growth slowed, with a year - on - year increase of 4.8%. The GDP deflator showed a marginal rebound. The production side remained resilient in September, while the demand side declined. Fiscal measures are expected to support the economy, and the key to economic recovery lies in the repair of domestic demand [1][2]. - The US government shutdown has led to a data vacuum, and the market's concerns about the economy have eased, but risks remain. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in October, but the actual impact may be limited due to market pre - pricing [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - Despite the US government shutdown and delayed economic data, the US dollar index has not fallen significantly. The People's Bank of China aims to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. The USD/RMB spot exchange rate is expected to remain stable within a reasonable range [3][4]. Stock Index - The stock market has been oscillating, and the trading volume has shrunk. The market is waiting for the outcome of Sino - US trade negotiations and policy signals from the Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee [6][7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound last week. The slowdown in GDP growth, weak investment and consumption, and the downward trend in the real estate market support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee is expected to influence the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The spot index has rebounded, but the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally. The futures market is expected to continue to oscillate in the short term [8][9][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price is facing a directional choice, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and a bearish view is maintained before large - scale production cuts [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and attention should be paid to Sino - US tariffs and interest rate cut expectations [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Macro - China's Q3 GDP grew 4.8% year - on - year, and the September economic data showed different trends in production and demand. The LPR remained unchanged, and there were developments in Sino - US trade and international political situations [1]. - The US government shutdown and the expected Fed interest rate cut are important factors affecting the market [2]. RMB Exchange Rate - The on - shore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar rose slightly, and the central parity rate was adjusted down. Sino - US trade negotiations and economic data are the focus [3]. - The central bank's policy aims to maintain exchange rate stability, and the exchange rate is expected to be stable within a reasonable range [4]. Stock Index - The stock market opened higher and oscillated, with a decline in trading volume. Important economic data, Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Fourth Plenary Session are influencing factors [6]. - The market is waiting for policy signals, and the trading volume is shrinking, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment [7]. Treasury Bonds - The bond market adjusted after a rebound. The GDP growth slowdown and other economic data support low - level interest rates. The Fourth Plenary Session is expected to affect the bond market [7]. Container Shipping (European Routes) - The futures market rose, and the spot index rebounded significantly. However, the supply - demand fundamentals have not improved fundamentally [9]. - The market is affected by multiple factors, and the futures are expected to oscillate in the short term [10][12]. Commodities Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The price of copper futures rose, and the inventory situation changed. Attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and interest rate cut expectations [14][15][16]. - Aluminum: The macro - environment is favorable, and the fundamentals are stable. The Shanghai aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [17]. - Alumina: It is in an oversupply situation, and the price is under pressure [18]. - Zinc: The market is oscillating, and attention should be paid to the opening of the export window and macro - driving factors [19]. - Nickel and Stainless Steel: They are following the market's oscillation, and the fundamentals have not changed significantly [20]. - Tin: It is expected to be bullish in the long term, with a stable wave - like upward trend in the medium and short term [21][22]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The price of industrial silicon may rise slightly in the future, and the impact of polysilicon production cuts needs to be observed [22][23]. - Lead: The price is expected to oscillate with a certain downward possibility [24]. Black Metals - Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil): The demand has recovered slightly but is still lower than in previous years. The supply needs to be adjusted through production cuts. The price may rebound slightly but is likely to fall back later [26]. - Iron Ore: It is under pressure, with a "supply - strong, demand - weak" pattern. The price is expected to be affected by policy signals [27][28]. - Coking Coal and Coke: The coking coal market has support at the bottom but is restricted by the downstream steel market. A volatile trading strategy is recommended [29][30]. - Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese: They have high inventories and weak downstream demand. The price is under pressure without significant stimulus policies [30][31]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: Geopolitical factors have weakened, and macro - factors are negative. The price is expected to decline in the medium and long term [33][34]. - LPG: It is oscillating, with the domestic fundamentals changing little [36][37]. - PTA - PX: The macro - expectation is not optimistic, and the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the Fourth Plenary Session and Sino - US trade negotiations [38][40]. - MEG - Bottle Chip: The valuation is under pressure, and the price is expected to oscillate at a low level. Attention should be paid to macro - factors [41][42]. - Methanol: The price range is expected to be 2250 - 2350, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment [44]. - PP: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price is under pressure. The macro - environment also has a negative impact [46][47]. - PE: The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is weak. The price is affected by the macro - environment [48][50]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: The supply is high, and the demand is weak. A strategy of narrowing the price difference is recommended in the short term [51][52]. - Fuel Oil: The high - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is expected to decline, and the low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread is weak [54][55]. - Asphalt: The short - term performance is not outstanding. Attention should be paid to macro - meetings and new demand points [57][58]. - Urea: It is under pressure and oscillating. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and macro - sentiment [59]. - Glass, Soda Ash, and Caustic Soda: They are fluctuating at a low level. The supply of soda ash is expected to be high, glass has high inventory and weak demand, and caustic soda needs to wait for the market to bottom out [60][61][63]. - Pulp and Offset Paper: Pulp is oscillating, and offset paper is under pressure [63][64]. - Logs: There is a marginal positive impact on the far - month price, but there are uncertainties. A cautious long - position strategy is recommended for the far - month contract [65][66]. - Propylene: It continues to be weak, with a loose supply and cost pressure [67][68]. Agricultural Products - Live Pigs: The supply is still excessive, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. Short - term attention should be paid to farmers' replenishment behavior, and long - term attention should be paid to capacity - reduction policies [70][71]. - Oilseeds: For soybeans, the supply may face a gap in the first quarter of next year. The demand for soybean meal will maintain a certain level. Rapeseed meal will see accelerated inventory reduction, and the trading opportunity needs to be determined by warehouse receipts [72].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After high - level fluctuations in September, the stock index is expected to enter a direction - selection phase again. The domestic liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, and residents may increase their allocation of equity assets. With the Fed's rate cuts and RMB appreciation, external funds are also expected to flow into the domestic market. In the fourth quarter, the market style may return to value and be more balanced compared to the third quarter [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Futures Market - **IF Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 4539.60, 4495.80, 4485.20, and 4463.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 4519.80, 4506.80, 4482.00, and 4447.20 respectively. The price changes were - 20.06, 9.40, - 2.60, and - 15.80 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 300 index of - 0.44, 0.21, - 0.06, and - 0.35. The trading volumes were 25145.00, 71457.00, 12171.00, and 3514.00 respectively, and the positions were 40679.00, 156399.00, 56967.00, and 3406.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 40679.00, 112532.00, - 106267.00, and - 55287.00 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 2983.00, 2964.20, 2963.00, and 2963.60 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 2972.00, 2970.40, 2972.00, and 2969.80 respectively. The price changes were - 11.27, 7.40, 10.40, and 7.20 respectively, with corresponding changes in the SSE 50 index of - 0.38, 0.25, 0.35, and 0.24. The trading volumes were 13161.00, 34271.00, 4201.00, and 986.00 respectively, and the positions were 14994.00, 60464.00, 13478.00, and 956.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 14994.00, 44254.00, - 54024.00, and - 13254.00 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7064.00, 6922.40, 6863.20, and 6702.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 6972.00, 6909.20, 6747.40, and 6567.00 respectively. The price changes were - 92.34, - 12.60, - 117.60, and - 136.60 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 500 index of - 1.31, - 0.18, - 1.71, and - 2.04. The trading volumes were 28764.00, 81712.00, 17991.00, and 6366.00 respectively, and the positions were 48948.00, 135493.00, 52568.00, and 6207.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 48948.00, 82817.00, - 87905.00, and - 47231.00 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The previous two - day closing prices of IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) were 7230.20, 7100.00, 7020.80, and 6805.00 respectively, and the previous day's closing prices were 7137.60, 7059.20, 6841.60, and 6637.40 respectively. The price changes were - 92.73, - 44.80, - 182.60, and - 170.60 respectively, with corresponding changes in the CSI 1000 index of - 1.28, - 0.63, - 2.60, and - 2.51. The trading volumes were 44989.00, 143577.00, 28288.00, and 11429.00 respectively, and the positions were 71066.00, 189654.00, 82550.00, and 11067.00 respectively. The changes in positions were 71066.00, 112051.00, - 116798.00, and - 76204.00 respectively [1] - **Inter - month Spreads**: The current inter - month spreads of IF (next month - current month), IH (next month - current month), IC (next month - current month), and IM (next month - current month) were - 13.00, - 1.60, - 62.80, and - 78.40 respectively, while the previous values were - 43.80, - 18.80, - 141.60, and - 130.20 respectively [1] 3.2 Stock Index Spot Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 index had a previous value of 4538.22, a previous two - day value of 4514.23, and a change rate of 0.53. The SSE 50 index had a previous value of 2974.86, a previous two - day value of 2967.77, and a change rate of 0.24. The CSI 500 index had a previous value of 7069.64, a previous two - day value of 7016.07, and a change rate of 0.76. The CSI 1000 index had a previous value of 7239.18, a previous two - day value of 7185.48, and a change rate of 0.75 [1] - **Industry Performance**: Among different industries, the energy, industrial, optional consumption, pharmaceutical and healthcare, real estate and finance, information technology, and telecommunications industries had positive change rates of 1.98%, 0.93%, 0.99%, 0.15%, 0.15%, 0.98%, and 3.21% respectively, while the raw materials, major consumption, and public utilities industries had negative change rates of - 1.17%, - 0.48%, and - 0.05% respectively [1] 3.3 Basis between Futures and Spot - **IF Contracts**: The basis between IF contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 300 index had previous values of - 18.42, - 31.42, - 56.22, and - 91.02 respectively, and previous two - day values of 25.37, - 18.43, - 29.03, and - 51.23 respectively [1] - **IH Contracts**: The basis between IH contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the SSE 50 index had previous values of - 2.86, - 4.46, - 2.86, and - 5.06 respectively, and previous two - day values of 15.23, - 3.57, - 4.77, and - 4.17 respectively [1] - **IC Contracts**: The basis between IC contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 500 index had previous values of - 97.64, - 160.44, - 322.24, and - 502.64 respectively, and previous two - day values of 47.93, - 93.67, - 152.87, and - 314.07 respectively [1] - **IM Contracts**: The basis between IM contracts (current month, next month, next quarter, and far - quarter) and the CSI 1000 index had previous values of - 101.58, - 179.98, - 397.58, and - 601.78 respectively, and previous two - day values of 44.72, - 85.48, - 164.68, and - 380.48 respectively [1] 3.4 Other Domestic and Overseas Indexes - **Domestic Indexes**: The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, Small and Medium - sized Board Index, and ChiNext Index had previous values of 3863.89, 12813.21, 7870.96, and 2993.45 respectively, previous two - day values of 3839.76, 12688.94, 7815.57, and 2935.37 respectively, and change rates of 0.63%, 0.98%, 0.71%, and 1.98% respectively [1] - **Overseas Indexes**: The Hang Seng Index, Nikkei 225, S&P Index, and DAX Index had previous values of 25858.83, 47582.15, 6735.13, and 24258.80 respectively, previous two - day values of 25247.10, 48277.74, 6664.01, and 23830.99 respectively, and change rates of 2.42%, - 1.44%, 1.07%, and 1.80% respectively [1] 3.5 Macroeconomic Information - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China started on October 20 in Beijing. China and the US are about to return to the negotiation table. The GDP in the first three quarters of China increased by 5.2% year - on - year. In September, the added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.5% year - on - year, and the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3%. The national fixed - asset investment in the first three quarters decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, and the per - capita disposable income of residents was 32,509 yuan, with a real increase of 5.2% after deducting price factors. The housing prices in 70 cities decreased month - on - month, and the year - on - year decline continued to narrow. The 1 - year and 5 - year LPRs in October remained unchanged for the fifth consecutive month [2] 3.6 Industry Information - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology emphasized the implementation of the work plan for stabilizing growth in the building materials industry. The transfer fees of residential land in 300 cities increased by 12% year - on - year in the first three quarters, but the transaction area decreased by 8%. China's wind power installation targets were comprehensively raised. As of the end of September, the total number of electric vehicle charging infrastructure in China reached 18.063 million, a year - on - year increase of 54.5%. In September, the production of raw coal decreased by 1.8% year - on - year, the production of crude oil increased by 4.1%, the production of natural gas increased by 9.4%, and the production of crude steel and pig iron reached new lows since December 2023 [2]

晨报 成材 成材：月度宏观数据偏弱 钢价弱势运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 成文时间： 2025 年 10 月 21 日 成材：月度宏观数据偏弱 钢价弱势运行 逻辑：国家统计局数据显示：2025 年 9 月，中国粗钢产量 7349 万吨， 同比下降 4.6%；生铁产量 6605 万吨，同比下降 2.4%；钢材产量 12421 万吨，同比增长 5.1%。1-9 月，中国粗钢产量 74625 万吨，同比下降 2.9%； 生铁产量 64586 万吨，同比下降 1.1%；钢材产量 110385 万吨，同比增长 5.4%。1-9 月份，全国房地产开发投资 67706 亿元，同比下降 13.9%；其 中，住宅投资 52046 亿元，下降 12.9%。1-9 月份，房地产开发企业房屋 施工面积 648580 万平方米，同比下降 9.4%。其中，住宅施工面积 452165 万平方 ...