Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On August 4, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.36% to 781.42 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 1.3% to 9039 yuan/kilogram [4]. - The significantly lower-than-expected non - farm payrolls in the US in July, along with the revised reduction of 258,000 jobs in May and June, highlight the sharp slowdown risk in the US labor market. Coupled with the July ISM manufacturing PMI being lower than expected and in the contraction range for five consecutive months, it triggers new concerns about a US economic recession, leading to a sudden increase in the expectation of a Fed rate cut. The market currently expects an 80% probability of a Fed rate cut in September, which drives the strong rebound of precious metal prices. Additionally, Trump's new round of tariffs on multiple countries and the poor US economic data boost market risk - aversion demand, supporting precious metal prices. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates in September, which may continue to support the strong performance of gold prices. Silver generally follows gold but may perform weaker under the new economic recession concerns [4]. - In the medium - to - long - term, there is still a certain probability of a Fed rate cut this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the wave of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases continue, so the medium - to - long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to move up [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On August 4, 2025, London gold spot was at $3360.20 per ounce, London silver spot at $37.22 per ounce, COMEX gold at $3413.10 per ounce, and COMEX silver at $37.26 per ounce. Compared with August 1, 2025, the price increases were 2.1%, 1.7%, 2.1%, and 1.6% respectively. The prices of domestic gold and silver futures and spot also showed varying degrees of increase, with increases ranging from 1.3% to 1.4% [3]. - **Price Spreads and Ratios**: As of August 4, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price was - 4.32 yuan/gram, and the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price was - 31 yuan/kilogram. Compared with August 1, 2025, the spreads had different degrees of change, with increases of 12.5% and 24.0% respectively [3]. Position Data - As of August 1, 2025, the gold ETF - SPDR was 953.08 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV was 15056.66493 tons. Compared with July 31, 2025, they decreased by 0.15% and 0.04% respectively. The non - commercial long and short positions of COMEX gold and silver also showed different degrees of decline [3]. Inventory Data - On August 4, 2025, the SHFE gold inventory was 35889.00 kilograms, an increase of 0.40% compared with August 1, 2025. The SHFE silver inventory was 1174273.00 kilograms, a decrease of 0.82% compared with August 1, 2025. The COMEX gold and silver inventories also showed slight increases [3]. Other Market Data - As of August 4, 2025, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 3.69%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 4.23%, the US dollar index was 98.69, and the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate was 7.14. Compared with August 1, 2025, they had different degrees of change, with the US dollar index decreasing by 0.14%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreasing by 3.20%, and the 2 - year US Treasury yield increasing by 21.89% [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates a significant shift in the balance of bullish and bearish forces in the gold market, with spot gold prices rising strongly due to unexpected U.S. non-farm data, which increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, and new tariff policies that stimulated market demand for safe-haven assets [1] - The article highlights three main factors driving the increase in gold prices: heightened global economic uncertainty, a weakening U.S. dollar index, and rising expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [1] - Technical analysis shows that the daily chart has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, indicating a potential upward trend, while the 4-hour chart shows a bullish alignment of moving averages but requires a pullback for further upward movement [1] Group 2 - The suggested trading strategy is to buy on dips near the 3365-3360 range, with a stop loss at 3352 and a target of 3380-3400 [3] - The trading performance for July indicates a win rate of 78.8%, with a net profit of 190 points and a risk-reward ratio of 2.96:1, demonstrating the effectiveness of the trading system [3] - A summary table of July's trading results shows 52 opportunities with 41 successful trades, reinforcing the reliability of the trading strategy [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices have seen a significant increase due to disappointing U.S. employment data and heightened market demand for safe-haven assets, with a weekly rise of nearly 2% [2]. Group 1 - On August 1, international gold prices rose by over 1% [1]. - The December gold futures price on the New York Commodity Exchange closed at $3,399.80 per ounce, marking a 1.53% increase and reaching a weekly high [2]. - The cumulative increase in international gold prices for the week was 1.92% [2].

转自：新华财经 美国联邦住房金融管理局（FHFA）在当日上午公布的数据显示，美国2025年5月份住房价格指数环比下降0.2%，降幅大于市场预期的-0.1%，4月份数值则 从-0.4%调整为-0.3%。 美国劳工部当天上午发布的职位空缺及劳动力流动调查报告（JOLTS）显示，美国2025年6月职位空缺数量为743.7万个，高于市场预期的740万个，但低 于5月份修订后的771.2万个。 个股方面，美国快递巨头联合包裹运送服务公司（United Parcel Service）29日发布的二季度业绩弱于预期并没有发布业绩指引，家电企业惠而浦公司28日 公布的二季度业绩弱于预期并下调每股分红。联合包裹运送服务公司和惠而浦公司股价在29日分别显著下跌10.57%和13.43%。尽管波音公司和宝洁公司 在当日公布的季报数据坚实，但两家公司股价当日分别下跌4.37%和0.32%。 美联储在29日开始为期两天的货币政策会议，市场整体仍然预期美联储会维持利率不变。 当地时间7月28日至29日，中美经贸中方牵头人、国务院副总理何立峰与美方牵头人、美国财政部长贝森特及贸易代表格里尔在瑞典斯德哥尔摩举行中美 经贸会谈。双方就中美经贸 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Views of the Report - The tariff situation has heated up again, the market risk appetite has declined, and short - term market hedging demand has increased, causing the gold price to break through an important level [2]. - The jump in the implied annualized lease rate of London spot silver indicates a surge in investment demand leading to tight inventories, providing strong support for the silver price, which may continue to rise in the short term [2]. - Gold prices may still be driven by three factors: the Fed's dovish policy expectation suppressing real interest rates, the risk of US fiscal deficit monetization pushing up sovereign credit premiums, and geopolitical uncertainty maintaining hedging demand [2]. - The long - term supply - demand tightness of silver provides price support. However, due to the large uncertainty in inflation prospects and the swing of rate - cut expectations, and the silver price being at a high level since 2012, it may face some short - term correction risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 7.84 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 9207 yuan/kilogram, up 167 yuan [2]. - The position of the Shanghai gold main contract is 191,083 lots, up 9,151 lots; the position of the Shanghai silver main contract is 448,095 lots, up 45,139 lots [2]. - The net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract is 133,792 lots, up 2,823 lots; the net position of the top 20 in the Shanghai silver main contract is 147,543 lots, up 16,243 lots [2]. - The warehouse receipt quantity of gold is 28,857 kilograms, up 4,272 kilograms; the warehouse receipt quantity of silver is 1,223,982 kilograms, down 79,611 kilograms [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 774.2 yuan/gram, up 3.5 yuan; the spot price of silver on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 9168 yuan/kilogram, up 182 yuan [2]. - The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 7.2 yuan/gram, down 4.34 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 39 yuan/kilogram, up 15 yuan [2]. 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - The gold ETF position is 947.64 tons, down 1.16 tons; the silver ETF position is 14,758.52 tons, down 131.41 tons [2]. - The non - commercial net position of gold in CFTC is 202,968 contracts, up 988 contracts; the non - commercial net position of silver in CTFC is 58,521 contracts, down 4,879 contracts [2]. - The total supply of gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year is 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces [2]. - The total demand for gold in the quarter is 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year is 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces [2]. 3.4 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 11.62%, up 0.73%; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold is 13.69%, down 0.36% [2]. - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.02%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold is 19.53%, down 0.03% [2]. 3.5 Industry News - Trump has imposed tariffs on 25 trading partners in four batches from July 7 to July 12, with tax rates ranging from 20% to 50% [2]. - The 35% tariff on Canada does not apply to goods meeting the US - Mexico - Canada Agreement, and Canada will not double its retaliatory tariffs on steel and aluminum as originally planned [2]. - Trump has criticized Fed Chairman Powell multiple times this year for not announcing rate cuts, and the probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 93.3% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The demand for safe-haven assets is expected to support gold prices, which have already seen a significant increase in the first half of 2025, marking the largest semi-annual gain since the second half of 2007 [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - In the first half of 2025, the London spot gold price rose by 25.7%, the highest semi-annual increase since the second half of 2007 [1] - The international gold price is anticipated to remain in a fluctuating upward channel in the second half of 2025 [1] Group 2: Market Demand Factors - Continued market demand for safe-haven assets is expected to provide long-term support for gold prices in the second half of 2025 [1] - Global central banks show a strong willingness to allocate gold, driven by increasing credit risks associated with the US dollar [1] Group 3: Strategic Asset Allocation - Central banks are likely to enhance their gold reserves due to strategic security and asset allocation needs [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Precious Metals**: The continuous escalation of the Middle - East geopolitical conflict increases market risk - aversion demand, but the sharp strengthening of the US dollar index exerts pressure. Weak US retail sales and industrial output data in May strengthen the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The global central banks' gold - buying trend remains unchanged, supporting the gold price center in the long - term. With a mix of bullish and bearish fundamentals, short - term focus is on the evolution of the geopolitical situation and signals of monetary policy shift [3]. - **Copper**: The most important macro event in the short - term is the Fed's interest - rate decision. Although the interest rate is mostly priced in, the statement after the decision may affect copper prices. High prices above 78,000 yuan per ton may lead to a negative feedback and a situation of high prices but low trading volume. The position of Shanghai copper has declined from a high of 580,000 lots to below 550,000 lots. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate around 78,000 yuan per ton [15]. - **Zinc**: The supply side shows a slow - paced relaxation, as indicated by the rising TC and the month - on - month increase in zinc ingot production. However, the transfer from ore to ingot takes time, and the relaxation at the ore end has not fully translated to the ingot end. The demand side remains stable but weak in the traditional off - season. Short - term focus is on macro data and market sentiment, as well as inventory data [32]. - **Aluminum**: The supply of electrolytic aluminum is approaching the industry's upper limit with little change. The demand from end - user factories is significantly declining in the off - season, but the processing sector's start - up rate has only slightly decreased, with some inventory accumulation. The low inventory and continuous de - stocking are the core factors supporting aluminum prices in the short - term, with prices likely to be volatile and bullish in the short - term and bearish in the long - term [46]. - **Alumina**: The Axis mine in Guinea has not resumed production, and there is a possibility of short - term (1 - 3 months) production suspension. Although the overall impact on annual alumina supply is limited, there may be monthly shortages, pushing up ore prices. Alumina has shifted to inventory accumulation, and prices are under pressure [47]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The raw material market for scrap aluminum is tight, leading to high costs. The supply capacity is relatively excessive, and the demand growth may slow down in the second half of the year. The futures contract shows a BACK structure [48]. - **Nickel**: The price of Philippine laterite nickel ore remains firm, squeezing the profits of downstream products. The price of nickel iron has been further reduced, and the demand from some steel mills has weakened, leading to inventory accumulation. The stainless - steel market is sluggish, and the price of nickel sulfate has also decreased. The spread between nickel sulfate and pure nickel is widening [74]. - **Tin**: Tin prices have remained stable recently and are expected to continue so in the next week under the assumption of no major changes in the macro and fundamental aspects. Due to falling inventory, slower - than - expected recovery of Burmese tin mines, and decent short - term demand, tin prices may be slightly bullish with limited upside space [90]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The spot market for the lithium - battery industry is weak. The supply side sees stable lithium ore prices but a downward shift in the lithium carbonate market price. The demand side shows no significant improvement, and the terminal market has mixed performance [104]. - **Silicon Industry Chain**: The market supply of the silicon industry chain is generally loose, and the furnace - opening expectations are gradually being realized. The supply side is slightly relaxed, and the demand side is stable. The polysilicon market has an increased production plan in July, while the downstream silicon wafer and battery - cell markets have reduced production and mainly make rigid purchases [118]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Price Data**: SHFE gold and silver futures prices, COMEX gold price and gold - silver ratio are presented [4]. - **Correlation Analysis**: Relationships between gold and the US dollar index, gold and US Treasury real interest rates are shown [9][10]. - **Inventory and Fund Position**: SHFE and COMEX gold and silver inventories, as well as long - term gold and silver fund positions are provided [13][14]. Copper - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai copper futures (main contract, continuous, etc.) and LME copper 3M are given [16]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different copper brands in various regions are presented [21]. - **Import and Processing Data**: Copper import profit and loss, copper concentrate TC, and copper scrap - refined copper price difference are provided [25][28]. - **Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data**: Shanghai copper and international copper warehouse receipts, and LME copper inventory data are shown [29][30]. Zinc - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai zinc futures and LME zinc are provided [33]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of different zinc products in various regions are presented [38]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai zinc and LME zinc warehouse receipts and inventory data are shown [42]. Aluminum - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and aluminum - related futures contracts are provided [50]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of aluminum in different regions, as well as LME aluminum spot and spreads are presented [57][62]. - **Inventory Data**: Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum warehouse receipts and inventory data, as well as alumina warehouse receipt data are shown [68]. Nickel - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, changes, and trading volume of Shanghai nickel and LME nickel futures, as well as stainless - steel futures, are provided [75]. - **Spot and Inventory Data**: Nickel spot prices, warehouse receipt inventories, and nickel ore prices and inventories are presented [80][82]. - **Profit Data**: Profit margins of nickel - related products such as MHP - produced electrolytic nickel, sulfuric - nickel production, and stainless - steel production are shown [84][87]. Tin - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai tin futures and LME tin are provided [91]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices, price changes, and spreads of tin products are presented [97]. - **Inventory Data**: Warehouse receipt inventories of tin and LME tin inventory are shown [99]. Lithium Carbonate - **Futures Data**: The closing prices, daily and weekly changes of lithium carbonate futures contracts are provided [105]. - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of lithium - related products such as lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and lithium hydroxide are presented [108]. - **Inventory Data**: Exchange inventories, including Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipts and different types of lithium carbonate inventories, are shown [114]. Silicon Industry Chain - **Spot Data**: Spot prices of industrial silicon in different regions and grades are provided [119]. - **Futures Data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of industrial silicon futures contracts are provided [123]. - **Product Price Data**: Prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and silicone products are presented [131][134]. - **Output and Inventory Data**: Industrial silicon production in Xinjiang and Yunnan, as well as inventories of polysilicon and industrial silicon are shown [137][145][149].

Core Viewpoint - Despite a decrease in market risk aversion, there remains support for gold bulls, raising questions about short-term selling opportunities [1] Group 1 - The demand for safe-haven assets has diminished, indicating a shift in market sentiment [1] - Gold prices may still find support due to underlying bullish factors, suggesting potential resilience in the market [1] - Analysts are closely monitoring short-term trading strategies, particularly regarding potential short positions in gold [1]

美国劳工统计局公布的数据显示，就业人数增加13.9万人，虽然创2月以来新低，但略高于市场预期的 12.6万人。然而，前两个月的就业数据被合计下调9.5万人，这一修正幅度足以抵消表面上的积极表现。 5月失业率 4.2%，持平预期及前值 4.2%。 在经济放缓的背景下，工资数据反而展现出意外的韧性。5月平均时薪环比增长0.4%，是预期0.2%的两 倍，同比增幅3.9%也超出3.7%的预期。私营非农部门员工平均时薪达到36.24美元。然而，这种工资增 长更多反映的是劳动力供给端的收紧，而非需求端的强劲。报告显示，全职就业岗位减少62.3万个，而 兼职岗位仅增加3.3万个，这表明企业可能正在通过减少用工时间来应对经济不确定性，而不是大规模 招聘。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：上周五公布的非农数据保持韧性，给美联储维持鹰派政策提供了空间，对金银价格进一步上 涨不利，黄金价格在高位进一步承压。展望未来，短期内市场避险需求仍偏弱，货币政策也预计维持鹰 派，并不利于贵金属价格的进一步上涨，预计贵金属价格将在政策信号与宏观数据公布的影响下继续震 荡，接下来需要重点关注周内即将公布的CPI数据。Comex黄金运行区间3300-345 ...

Economic Indicators - In April, US durable goods orders fell by 6.3% month-on-month, indicating a decline in corporate investment sentiment due to uncertainties in tariff and tax policies [1] - The US PCE price index recorded a year-on-year increase of 2.1% in April, marking the lowest level since March 2021 [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield decreased by 2.06% week-on-week, reflecting a downturn in consumer and business spending [1] Tariff Policies - On May 28, the US International Trade Court ruled that tariffs imposed by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act were overreaching, halting several trade policies announced on "Liberation Day" [1] - The following day, the US Court of Appeals temporarily stayed the trade court's order, allowing Trump's tariff policies to continue [1] - The Trump administration announced an increase in tariffs on imported steel and aluminum from 25% to 50% starting June 4, prompting the EU to prepare countermeasures [1] Market Reactions - The volatility in domestic tariff policies and escalating trade tensions between the US and EU, along with the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have significantly heightened market risk aversion [1] - Due to the impact of tariffs and the low base effect expected in 2024, the market anticipates a resurgence of inflation in the US by June, which may support a rebound in gold prices [1] - Investors are advised to consider accumulating gold ETFs (518800) during price corrections [1]