Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Not clearly defined, but with short - term support and limited medium - term upside [2] - Fuel oil: High - sulfur cracking spread expected to oscillate at high levels; low - sulfur cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Cracking spread faces pressure to decline from high levels [2] - Asphalt: Expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - Liquefied petroleum gas: Disk expected to oscillate weakly downward [4] Core Views - The global oil market will shift from a deficit of 300,000 barrels per day in 2024 to a surplus of 640,000 barrels per day, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, but the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline. High - sulfur fuel oil demand has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] - The profit of asphalt is prominent, with rising utilization rate this week and expected decline next week. Demand is gradually released in the north and restricted in the south by rainfall. Overall inventory has decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4] Summary by Category Crude Oil - The global oil market will shift from a deficit to a surplus in 2025, with the expected annual surplus reduced compared to the April report. The weekly global oil inventory decreased by 0.9%, and the destocking rate in the second quarter was 0.4%, lower than expected. Short - term factors support oil prices, but medium - term supply - demand pressure limits upside [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - The demand for low - sulfur marine fuel is relatively strong during the peak season, and the Singapore low - sulfur marine fuel spread rose by $3.5 per ton last week. However, the low - sulfur cracking spread may decline due to factors such as the widening east - west spread and domestic capacity expansion. The demand for high - sulfur fuel oil is relatively weak but has offsetting factors, and its cracking spread will oscillate at high levels [2] Asphalt - The profit of asphalt is prominent, and the domestic refinery utilization rate increased by 5.8% to 35% this week, with an expected decline next week. The weekly asphalt shipment was 392,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons. The overall inventory decreased significantly, and it is expected to oscillate with a bullish bias [3] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The CIF price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas has dropped, and there is still pressure from concentrated arrivals in the first half of May. The import cost support has weakened, and the refinery gas price has been lowered. The PDH operating rate declined last week, and the spot price has room to decline in the short term, with the disk oscillating weakly downward [4]

Report Basic Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: April 30, 2025 [2] Research Team - Energy and Chemical Research Team: Peng Jinglin (Polyolefins), Li Jie (Crude Oil and Fuel Oil), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (Urea, Industrial Silicon), Liu Youran (Pulp), Feng Zeren (Glass and Soda Ash) [4] Market Quotes Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening Price (yuan/ton) | Closing Price (yuan/ton) | Highest Price (yuan/ton) | Lowest Price (yuan/ton) | Change (yuan/ton) | Change Rate (%) | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37 | 44163 | -426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | -14 | -0.19 | 23834 | -8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22 | 482064 | -10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27 | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04 | 19227 | -4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14 | 397139 | -9623 | [5] Market Analysis Market Review and Outlook - Lianplastic L2509 opened lower, fluctuated downward during the session, and closed down at 7122 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan/ton (-0.6%), with a trading volume of 260,000 lots and an open interest increase of 8592 to 490,656 lots. PP main contract 09 closed at 7092 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan, a decline of 0.27%, with an open interest increase of 4289 to 401,400 lots. The incident at Iranian ports caused supply disruptions. China's import dependence on Iranian polyethylene is about 3.3% and has been decreasing year by year. Among the specific varieties, LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. Concerns about import disruptions led to a sharp increase in LDPE prices. In the short term, sentiment pushed up the price of plastics. According to the news, the ports resumed cargo import and export on the 27th, weakening the impact on the supply side. The news stimulated the L futures market to rise. However, the current high inventory and the weakening of the peak demand season make it difficult to support continuous upward movement. PP has a relatively low import dependence and is less affected by this incident. Currently, the intensive maintenance of upstream PP plants provides temporary support to the supply side. However, the restricted export of downstream finished products and the fading peak season lead to a marginal weakening of demand, intensifying the supply-demand game, and the price is consolidating in a narrow range at a low level. [6] Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 660,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous working day, an increase of 0.76%; the inventory at the same time last year was 720,000 tons. The weakening of the PP futures market dragged down the atmosphere of the spot market. Some producers lowered their prices, weakening the cost support for the supply. Before the holiday, traders, based on the need for cash collection and inventory reduction, mainly sold at reduced prices. The pre-holiday stocking of downstream enterprises has basically ended, and their intention to enter the market for procurement during the day was not high, and most of the transactions in the morning were mediocre. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing in the morning was 7080 - 7300 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of East China wire drawing was 7170 - 7300 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of South China wire drawing was 7180 - 7380 yuan/ton. The PE market price was weakly adjusted. In the North China region, some linear prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high-pressure prices fell by 20 - 200 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; in the East China region, some high-pressure prices fell by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and some linear and low-pressure prices rose or fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton; in the South China region, some high-pressure prices fell by 20 - 100 yuan/ton, and some low-pressure and linear prices fell by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The price of LLDPE in the North China region was 7340 - 7600 yuan/ton, the price of LLDPE in the East China region was 7350 - 7900 yuan/ton, and the price of LLDPE in the South China region was 7550 - 7780 yuan/ton. [7][8] Data Overview - The report includes charts such as L basis, PP basis, L-PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two-oil inventory, and two-oil inventory year-on-year increase or decrease rate, with data sources including Wind and Zhuochuang Information. [10][12][14]

Report Overview - Report Date: April 29, 2025 - Report Type: Polyolefin Daily Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The Iran port incident caused supply disruptions. The import dependence of domestic polyethylene on Iranian sources is about 3.3% and decreasing annually. LDPE is more affected, with Iranian imports accounting for about 18% of total LDPE imports. The import interruption concern led to a significant increase in LDPE prices. However, the supply - side impact has weakened as the port resumed cargo import and export on the 27th. With high inventory and weakening demand peak season, it's difficult to support continuous upward movement of plastics. [4] - PP has a low import dependence and was less affected by this incident. Currently, upstream PP device maintenance is intensive, providing temporary support to the supply side. But downstream product exports are restricted and the peak season is fading, resulting in weakening demand and intensified supply - demand game, leading to narrow - range consolidation at low levels. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market Quotes | Variety | Opening | Closing | High | Low | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Plastic 2601 | 7063 | 7101 | 7122 | 7063 | 26 | 0.37% | 44163 | - 426 | | Plastic 2505 | 7348 | 7353 | 7383 | 7331 | - 14 | - 0.19% | 23834 | - 8998 | | Plastic 2509 | 7135 | 7164 | 7189 | 7133 | 16 | 0.22% | 482064 | - 10575 | | PP2601 | 7013 | 7054 | 7070 | 7013 | 19 | 0.27% | 16157 | 217 | | PP2505 | 7179 | 7195 | 7219 | 7178 | 3 | 0.04% | 19227 | - 4703 | | PP2509 | 7088 | 7112 | 7128 | 7085 | 10 | 0.14% | 397139 | - 9623 | [3] 3.2 Industry News - The inventory level of major producers today is 655,000 tons, a 5,000 - ton increase (0.77%) from the previous workday, compared to 710,000 tons in the same period last year. [5] - PP market prices fluctuated narrowly. The slight increase in PP futures boosted the sentiment of the spot market. Most producer factory prices remained stable, and the overall offers of traders changed little. Some low - stock grades tried to increase prices slightly, and downstream factories made low - price rigid - demand replenishments. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 7090 - 7320 yuan/ton, East China was 7200 - 7330 yuan/ton, and South China was 7200 - 7400 yuan/ton. [5] - Some PE market prices increased. In North China, individual linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, and individual low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 50 yuan/ton. In East China, some high - pressure prices increased by 50 - 100 yuan/ton, linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton, and low - pressure prices fluctuated by 20 - 100 yuan/ton. In South China, some high - pressure prices increased by 20 - 150 yuan/ton, and low - pressure and linear prices fluctuated by 10 - 50 yuan/ton. The LDPE market price continued to rise, and downstream buyers mainly made rigid - demand replenishments with actual transactions focusing on negotiation. The LLDPE price in North China was 7350 - 7650 yuan/ton, in East China was 7350 - 7950 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7550 - 7800 yuan/ton. [5][6]