Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that despite recent declines in short-term U.S. Treasury yields due to Federal Reserve rate cut expectations, long-term yields are expected to rise slightly in the coming months due to inflation concerns and significant new debt issuance [1][2][4] - The survey of bond strategists suggests that the 10-year Treasury yield is projected to rise from approximately 4.28% to 4.30% over the next three months, and remain around that level into next year [2][4] - Concerns about inflation being more persistent than anticipated, despite expectations of temporary increases due to tariffs, are highlighted as a key factor influencing long-term yields [2][4] Group 2 - A significant influx of nearly $500 billion in new debt is expected this quarter, which may prevent long-term yields from declining significantly, even if inflation rises less than expected [4][5] - The yield curve is anticipated to steepen, with the spread between short-term and long-term yields widening from approximately 50 basis points to 80 basis points over the next year [4][6] - The lack of a deficit reduction plan is causing the market to demand higher yields, reflecting a structural bet on a steepening yield curve [6]

Group 1 - The Trump administration is pressuring the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates to reduce the cost of currency hedging for international investors, ensuring their dollar-denominated asset returns are protected from currency depreciation [2][5] - International investors, particularly foreign life insurance companies, have significantly reduced their currency hedging ratios, with some cutting their hedging from 90% to 45% [2][3] - The flattening yield curve in the U.S. means that the interest rate differential, which motivates foreign life insurance companies to invest in U.S. bonds, is being eroded by high hedging costs [3][5] Group 2 - The Trump administration's public support for a weaker dollar has forced international investors to close their risk exposures in dollar assets [4] - The challenge for the U.S. Treasury is to attract buyers for long-term U.S. bonds, especially as Japan's government bonds now offer higher yields compared to U.S. bonds [5] - Lowering the federal funds rate could narrow the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Japan, making hedging cheaper and potentially attracting international buyers back to U.S. long-term assets [5][6]

智通财经APP获悉，投资者们将在周四关注有关英国央行债券抛售前景的线索。目前市场有猜测称，该 央行将放缓减持英国国债的速度。预计英国央行将在周四公布货币政策决定的同时，发布有关其所 谓"量化紧缩"进程的评估报告。虽然英国央行不太可能明确指出在10月之后将削减资产负债表的规模， 但会透露官员们对于当前每年 1000 亿英镑抛售规模的看法。 债券策略师预计将出现放缓态势。英国央行 6 月份的一项调查结果显示，多数人预计债券减持规模将在 600 亿至 800 亿英镑之间。若实际削减规模超出预期，这将有助于支撑市场，尤其是对于那些近年来因 政治动荡和养老基金需求减少而遭受重创的长期债券而言。 市场参与者中有人呼吁英国央行减少长期债券的主动抛售量。此前的多次抛售导致英国 30 年期债券的 借贷成本在今年早些时候升至 1998 年以来的最高水平，这让英国财政大臣雷切尔·里夫斯颇为头疼。其 中一次动荡时期导致英国央行推迟了长期债券的抛售计划。 今年，英国央行计划通过让 870 亿英镑到期债务自然结清以及进行 130 亿英镑的主动抛售来减少其债券 持有量——后者使其在全球央行中显得与众不同。官员们希望通过通过回购操作提供现金 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. non-farm payroll report indicates that the views of Federal Reserve Governor Waller's faction may be gaining traction, potentially persuading more individuals to support interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The missed opportunity for a rate cut in July has significantly increased the likelihood of a cut in September [1] - The substantial decline in the front end of the yield curve is attributed to these developments [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Bank of Japan is closely monitoring the risks of rising prices, emphasizing the importance of its independence for price and macroeconomic stability [1] Group 1 - The central bank needs to observe whether food inflation will slow down as predicted [1] - Price trends are currently rising but remain below 2%, which is the reason for maintaining an accommodative policy [1] - The risk of lagging behind the yield curve is not considered high at this moment [1]

日本央行行长植田和男：我们目前没有落后于收益率曲线，落后于曲线的风险也不高。 ...

美联储发布声明后，美国2年期/10年期收益率曲线趋陡，最新利差报46.3个基点。 ...

Group 1 - The 30-year government bond ETF (511090) has seen a slight increase of 0.01%, with the latest price at 122.41 yuan as of July 30, 2025 [1] - The ETF has experienced active trading, with a turnover rate of 23.73% and a total transaction volume of 5.295 billion yuan, indicating a vibrant market [1] - The latest scale of the 30-year government bond ETF has reached a new high of 22.25 billion yuan, with the number of shares also hitting a record of 18.2 million [1] Group 2 - Over the past week, the 30-year government bond ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.445 billion yuan, totaling 4.525 billion yuan in net inflows [1] - The chief economist at Caitong Securities suggests that short-term funding prices will depend heavily on the central bank's reverse repurchase operations, with expectations of a stable market environment [2] - The 30-year government bond ETF closely tracks the China Bond 30-Year Government Bond Index, which includes publicly issued bonds with maturities of 25-30 years [2]

Group 1 - The report indicates that the recent adjustment in the bond market has led to a significant rise in the 10-year government bond yield, which has increased by over 10 basis points to around 1.75% [1][12][51] - Historical patterns suggest that similar rapid increases in interest rates typically occur during periods of policy tightening or improved economic expectations. Although inflation expectations have risen, the primary driver for the current bond yield increase is the unexpected rise in commodity prices [1][12][51] - The report forecasts limited upward movement in bond yields in the short term, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to fluctuate between 1.65% and 1.80% in August. Investors are advised to focus on potential rebound opportunities due to the high level of unrealized losses in 10-year bonds [1][12][51] Group 2 - The report discusses the current state of the yield curve, noting that it is relatively flat historically, with limited potential for steepening due to insufficient monetary easing. The report suggests that the yield curve's shape is increasingly influenced by long-term rates [13][54] - Three potential paths for the yield curve to steepen are identified: 1) Central bank announcements of bond purchases, 2) Further easing of funding rates, and 3) Stronger-than-expected economic performance [54][55] - From a portfolio construction perspective, the report recommends an "barbell" strategy, favoring a mix of 2-3 year credit bonds and long-end active bonds, while only considering bullet strategies if there is significant potential for steepening in the yield curve [55][56] Group 3 - The report highlights specific bond selection strategies, indicating that for long-term bonds, attention should be given to bonds such as 230023 and 25T5, while mid-term bonds like 250003, 250405, and 250415 are also recommended [4][19][20] - In the context of credit bonds, the report notes a recent increase in credit spreads, suggesting improved holding value for credit bonds. It recommends maintaining a small position in long-term credit bonds, particularly in the 7-8 year range, while monitoring for potential adjustments based on funding conditions and interest rate movements [20][21] - The report also emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of government bond futures, which have shown a significant decline compared to cash bonds, indicating a favorable hedging value [5][21]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a bearish stance on the US dollar while advocating for long positions in the euro, pound, and yen [2]. Core Insights - The 10-year Treasury yield is expected to reach 4% in 2025, with further declines anticipated in 2026, driven primarily by significant rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. - The difference in two-year yields between the US and Europe significantly impacts the dollar's performance, with a decline in US yields likely to weaken the dollar [4]. - The term premium is influenced by multiple factors, including foreign investor sell-offs of US Treasuries and Federal Reserve policies, with expectations of rising term premiums during rate cuts [1][4]. - Economic stimulus policies have a negligible effect on actual GDP growth, and reduced tariff revenues lessen the Treasury's need to raise long-term bond issuance rates [5]. Summary by Sections Interest Rate Expectations - The yield curve is expected to steepen, with a forecasted decline in the 10-year Treasury yield to 4% in 2025 and further decreases in 2026, primarily due to anticipated rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Currency Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the US dollar is likely to weaken due to falling yields, while the euro may appreciate as European investors have not hedged significant US asset exposures [2][4]. - The pound is expected to rise due to favorable valuations and the parliamentary recess, while the yen's positive fiscal dynamics support its strength [2][6]. Fiscal Policy Implications - Economic stimulus is projected to contribute minimally to GDP growth, with estimates around 20 basis points, and the Treasury's financing needs are expected to remain stable without raising long-term bond rates [5]. Central Bank Decision-Making - Understanding the decision-making tendencies of central banks, particularly those that maintain market pricing ambiguity, is crucial for forex investors [6].