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宝城期货股指期货早报-20250521
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-05-21 01:12
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报(2025 年 5 月 21 日) ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明:短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注: 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格,无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格,当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格,计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌,跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱,涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强,涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点,短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种:IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点:震荡偏强 中期观点:震荡 参考观点:区间震荡 核心逻辑:昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 12112 亿元,较上日放量 923 亿元。二 季度政策面托底经济需求,且稳定股市预期,尤其是强调了加强汇金 ...
中泰国际颜招骏:当前港股处于政策托底与博弈不确定性的再平衡阶段
Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the Hong Kong stock market is currently in a phase of policy support and uncertainty, leading to a rebalancing situation [1] - The AH premium index has dropped to a near four-year low, with southbound capital becoming cautious and even taking profits, indicating a potential market consolidation phase due to technical overbought pressure [1] - The internal fundamentals show a "weak recovery + differentiation" characteristic, with the manufacturing PMI returning to contraction, and both resident and corporate credit demand remaining sluggish [1] Group 2 - The external environment reflects a conflict between "tactical easing" and "strategic encirclement," with the US-China tariff pause boosting risk appetite, but ongoing technology wars and export restrictions creating pressure in critical sectors [1] - Policy measures such as interest rate cuts and consumption loans are aimed at driving domestic demand recovery, particularly in service consumption and commodities [2] - The strategy suggested is to maintain a "defensive counterattack" approach, focusing on high-dividend defensive sectors and consumer sectors benefiting from policy support and events like the e-commerce "618" promotion [2]
股指期货:节前观望增加,或延续整固
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:35
股指期货:节前观望增加,或延续整固 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0011222 maolei@gtht.com 报告导读: 1、 市场回顾与展望:上周市场窄幅震荡,主因驱动不明显。四大期指亦涨跌互现。板块方面看,汽 车、美容护理、基础化工涨幅居前,食品饮料、房地产、煤炭跌幅居前,热点主线散乱。在美方释出大幅 下调对中国关税消息后,后续关税走向反而不甚明朗,重新向上或继续下调均有空间,交易反而存在高度 不确定性。此外,在关税压力弱化之际,政策面是否会降低托底力度存在疑问。周五,盘中政治局会议消 息公布后,市场房地产板块、黑色系期货走势出现回落,可见一斑。 后期来看,短期国内政策靴子落地,在外部压力释缓的情况下,政策以落实前期会议精神为主,力度 偏温和。预计近一阶段仍以结构性政策为主,总量宽松(譬如降准降息等)仍需等待。在政策温和的情况 下,二季度开始贸易摩擦对实体经济的压力将逐步增加。因此政策温和,实体下修,宏观预期回落对指数 运行存在压力。此外从交易方面因素看,本周仅节前三个交易日,假期间美国还将发布非农数据,鉴于今 年清明小长假后行情出现巨大波动以及美方在关税领域的不确定性,避险观望情绪增加也可能带来走势的 ...