Core Viewpoint - The AI Fund Wanjiarongli Quantitative Stock Selection Mixed Initiation A (019987) reported a profit of 59,900 yuan in Q2 2025, with a weighted average profit per fund share of 0.0119 yuan, and a net value growth rate of 1.26% during the period [3][4]. Fund Performance - As of July 17, the fund's unit net value was 0.978 yuan, with a three-month net value growth rate of 4.63%, ranking 539 out of 615 in its category [4]. - The fund's six-month net value growth rate was 4.02%, ranking 512 out of 615, and the one-year growth rate was 9.63%, ranking 450 out of 584 [4]. - Since inception, the fund has maintained a high average stock position of 92.4%, compared to the category average of 83.13% [14]. Fund Management Insights - The fund manager, Yin Hang, oversees seven funds and anticipates that market sentiment will focus on the performance of A-share companies as they disclose their semi-annual reports [3]. - The manager believes that sectors with better-than-expected performance or sustained growth will attract short-term attention [3]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception was 20.86%, with the largest quarterly drawdown occurring in Q1 2024 at 16.34% [11]. Fund Holdings - As of Q2 2025, the top ten holdings of the fund included Erdos, New China Life Insurance, Gree Electric Appliances, China Shenhua Energy, Huayang Co., China Merchants Highway, Shangu Power, Chengdu Bank, Chongqing Bank, and Qilu Bank [19].

Group 1: Economic Growth Overview - In Q2, GDP growth was 5.2%, a 0.2 percentage point decrease from Q1, but still better than expected, resulting in a cumulative growth of 5.3% for the first half of the year[6] - External trade negatively impacted economic growth, with Q2 exports increasing by 6.2% compared to 5.7% in Q1, but a more significant rise in imports suppressed trade surplus growth[6] - Final consumption's contribution to GDP slightly decreased from 2.79 percentage points to 2.76 percentage points, indicating stable but reduced consumer spending[6] Group 2: Divergences in Economic Indicators - There is a divergence between final consumption's weakening contribution to GDP and the rising growth rate of social retail sales, suggesting structural issues in consumption, particularly weaker service consumption compared to goods[11] - Despite a decline in investment growth across all sectors, total investment's contribution to GDP unexpectedly increased, likely due to temporary support from inventory[15] - Fixed asset investment growth fell by 1.4 percentage points to 2.8% in the first half, with declines in infrastructure, manufacturing, and real estate investments[15] Group 3: Future Policy and Risks - To maintain a full-year growth target of "keeping above 5%", GDP growth in the second half must reach 4.7%[24] - The economic resilience observed in Q2 was attributed to policy support, unexpected export performance, and temporary inventory support[24] - Risks include slow recovery of consumer confidence and potential delays in policy implementation, alongside uncertainties in external trade due to tariff fluctuations[28]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the documents. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The drivers of commodity futures are differentiated, with coking coal being relatively strong and lithium carbonate and PTA being relatively weak [1]. - Stock indices are in a period of consolidation, and their medium - to long - term upward trend is clear. The bond market is running at a high level, and gold is oscillating at a high level [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Indices - Last week, the A - share market oscillated strongly, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high. The trading volume of the two markets was about 1.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The steel, banking, and building materials sectors led the gains, while the comprehensive finance and computer industries led the losses. The four major stock index futures showed differentiated trends, with IF and IH strengthening, and IC and IM oscillating at high levels [1]. - In the short term, stock indices may maintain high - level consolidation. In the medium - to long - term, with clear policy support and improved fundamental expectations, the inflow of medium - to long - term funds continues, and the upward trend of stock indices is clear. Overseas, attention should be paid to the progress of US tariff negotiations. Domestically, during the interim report season, the earnings of IF and IH constituent stocks are more certain, and their trends may be stronger [1]. Bonds - Last week, the bond market rose slightly and remained at a high level. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The central bank continued its net capital withdrawal operation at the beginning of the month, but the capital market remained loose, and the inter - bank capital cost declined across the board [1]. - Although the bond issuance pressure has increased, the market's expectation of liquidity remains optimistic. Overall, the macro - environment has strong uncertainty and limited trend drivers. The bond market remains at a high level, but there is still high - valuation pressure, and attention should be paid to the performance of the equity market [1]. Gold and Silver - The suspension period of US reciprocal tariffs is about to end, and short - term policy uncertainty has increased again. However, there are more signals of strong US economic resilience, which is conducive to restoring market risk appetite. The short - term probability of a Fed rate cut has decreased, and the factors favorable to the gold price in the long - term need further fermentation [1]. - In the short term, the driving force for the gold price to break through upwards is insufficient, and it will continue to oscillate at a high level in July. The gold - silver ratio is high, and there is a possibility of repair. The silver price has strong technical support below after the breakthrough. It is recommended to hold the sold out - of - the - money put option positions of the gold and silver 08 contracts until expiration [4]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Last week, Shanghai copper was strong in the first half of the week and fell back in the second half, returning below 80,000 yuan. The US is in trade negotiations with many countries, and there is still high uncertainty. The supply at the mine end remains tight, and attention should be paid to the development of the Peruvian copper mine incident [3][4]. - The demand remains cautiously expected, and the off - season and high prices have restricted the downstream to a certain extent. The inventories of domestic and overseas exchanges have increased across the board, and the LME spot premium has significantly declined. The financial attribute still supports the copper price in the medium - to long - term, and the low - inventory pattern is expected to remain unchanged before the copper tariff is implemented. However, the short - term positive factors may weaken [4]. Aluminum and Alumina - The US trade negotiation uncertainty remains high. The concern about ore disturbances in alumina has not subsided, but the domestic bauxite inventory is still high, and the short - term supply shortage concern is limited. The alumina production capacity is expanding rapidly, and the downstream demand has little room for growth, so the surplus pattern is difficult to change [3][4]. - For Shanghai aluminum, the supply constraint is still clear, and the import profit remains inverted. The demand is still cautious due to the off - season, and the inventory shows signs of accumulation. Overall, the alumina surplus pattern is difficult to change, and the price is under pressure. The medium - term upward trend of Shanghai aluminum remains unchanged, but the short - term demand and inventory have certain drags, and the influence of tariffs has increased [4]. Nickel - The supply of Philippine nickel ore has recovered seasonally, the port inventory has increased significantly, and the nickel ore price has weakened marginally. The supply of nickel iron is abundant, but the downstream acceptance is limited, and the price is under pressure [4]. - The production capacity of intermediate products is still expanding. The refined nickel production decreased in June, but the inventory remained oscillating at a high level. Overall, the demand is weak, the nickel supply has increased seasonally, and the surplus pattern is clear. As the macro - sentiment fades, the nickel price is under pressure. It is recommended to adopt the strategy of selling call options [4]. Energy and Chemicals Lithium Carbonate - The lithium ore price has stabilized, which has increased the cost support. However, the surplus pattern of the lithium salt market has not been substantially improved. The weekly output of lithium carbonate remains at a relatively high level of over 18,000 tons, while the downstream demand has insufficient growth, and the inventory is still in the accumulation cycle [6]. - The current periodical rebound can be used to short at high prices [6]. Industrial Silicon - The number of open furnaces in the industrial silicon market has increased this week. Some manufacturers in the southwest region have resumed production due to the implementation of the wet - season subsidy electricity price, and the market supply has increased [6]. - Since the warehouse receipts are still being depleted, the near - month contracts are strongly supported. Attention should be paid to the implementation of anti - involution production cuts on the supply side [6]. Steel and Ore Rebar - The spot price of rebar was stable to slightly lower over the weekend, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the improvement at the spot level is limited. The speculative demand has recovered, but the rigid demand has weakened seasonally, and the marginal inventory reduction speed of rebar has gradually slowed down [6]. - It is expected that the rebar futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to double pressure from the electric - furnace cost and the sustainability of spot price increases. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the - money put option positions (RB2510P2900) [6]. Hot - Rolled Coil - The spot price of hot - rolled coil was generally stable over the weekend, with slight declines in some areas, and the spot trading was generally weak. The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, but the follow - up power at the spot level is insufficient. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils are both strong, and the inventory has increased [6]. - It is expected that the hot - rolled coil futures price has strong bottom support but is subject to pressure from export costs and the sustainability of spot price increases during the off - season. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see on the single - side and consider participating in the arbitrage strategy of compressing profits for the 01 contract [6]. Iron Ore - Last week, the daily output of molten iron in the Steel Union sample decreased but remained above 2.4 million tons. Under the background of high molten iron output and low steel mill raw material inventory, the supply - demand contradiction of imported ore in July is limited [6]. - The "anti - involution" concept has boosted market expectations, and the steel futures and spot prices have risen in resonance. It is expected that the iron ore price will continue to oscillate strongly. It is recommended to continue holding the sold out - of - the money put option I2509 - P680 and consider participating in the 9 - 1 positive spread when the spread is low [6]. Coal and Coke Coking Coal - The raw coal inventory in coal mines has continued to decline, the pit - mouth transaction atmosphere has improved, and the enthusiasm of steel, coke enterprises, and trading links for raw material procurement and inventory has increased. The transaction rate has reached a new high for the year, and the short - term supply - demand mismatch has pushed up the coal price [8]. - It is recommended to continue holding the long - position strategy and pay attention to the coal mine production increase progress after the safety production month and the sustainability of downstream procurement [8]. Coke - Hebei steel mills may have production restrictions, but the daily output of molten iron is at a relatively high seasonal level, which supports the rigid demand for coke. The actual demand performance is good, while the coke oven operation is restricted by profit factors and is difficult to significantly increase production. Coke plants are actively reducing inventory, and there is an expectation of price increases in the spot market [8]. Soda Ash and Glass Soda Ash - The fundamentals of soda ash are clear. The daily output of soda ash remained unchanged at 99,300 tons on Friday, and Kunshan and Qinghai Fatou will resume production one after another this week. The demand for light soda ash is difficult to offset the reduction in heavy soda ash demand [8]. - The supply of soda ash is relatively loose, and the continuous passive inventory accumulation trend of alkali plants remains unchanged. In the short term, the soda ash price oscillates at a low level, and the near - month contracts are weaker than the far - month contracts due to the selling - hedging pressure. It is recommended to hold the short positions of the soda ash 09 contract with a stop - profit line and patiently hold the strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Float Glass - The operating capacity of float glass is temporarily stable, and the demand is difficult to digest both the supply and the existing inventory at the same time. The glass factory inventory fluctuates slightly, and it is difficult to reduce the high inventory [8]. - The "anti - involution" concept has promoted the recovery of market expectations, but the short - term implementation probability is low, and the cold - repair drive of glass factories is still accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on the 01 contract at low prices after the basis widens and continue to hold the arbitrage strategy of going long on glass 01 and short on soda ash 01 [8]. Crude Oil - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 548,000 barrels per day in August, and the US "Big and Beautiful" Act has been passed by both houses of Congress, which may increase US crude oil production. The EIA weekly data shows an unexpected inventory accumulation, which is generally bearish [8]. - Overall, the OPEC+ production increase decision may increase the supply pressure, and the short - term oil price will oscillate weakly [8]. PTA - The cost - end crude oil OPEC+ continues to significantly increase production, and the oil price is expected to move down, providing weak support for energy - chemical products. In addition, the PTA supply side will face the pressure of new production capacity and the resumption of existing maintenance capacity in the third quarter, and the inventory - reduction pattern will turn into inventory accumulation [11]. - It is expected that the price will show an oscillating downward trend [11]. Methanol - Most Iranian methanol plants have restarted, but the operating load is low. The operating rate of overseas methanol plants has increased by 11% to 64%. Many plants in the northwest started maintenance last week, and the output will decrease by about 5% in the next month, and the factory inventory will also decrease passively [10]. - The monthly arrival volume has decreased more than expected, and the weekly volume is expected to not exceed 300,000 tons. Although the downstream demand has entered the off - season, the total demand has not changed significantly. Therefore, the supply will be tight in July, and the methanol price is supported. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options or at - the - money straddles for the 08 options contract [10]. Polyolefins - OPEC+ is accelerating production increases, with an increase of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August and considering another increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September. The crude oil supply is increasingly surplus, and the price will continue to decline [10]. - In the second quarter, new polyolefin plants were successfully put into operation. In the second half of the year, PE will have 3.1 million tons of new production capacity, and PP will have 2.1 million tons of new production capacity, resulting in large supply pressure. It is recommended to go long on the L - PP spread and short on PP 3MA [10]. Cotton - The domestic cotton output in the 2025/26 season is expected to be 6.784 million tons, a slight year - on - year decrease, and the expectation of tight supply and demand in the current season has strengthened. The third quarter is the critical growth period of cotton, and any adverse weather conditions may cause final yield losses and push up the weather premium [10]. - The downstream textile enterprises are performing well, the terminal clothing consumption has remained basically unchanged year - on - year, and the commercial inventory has continued to decline. It is recommended to continue holding the previous long positions [10]. Rubber - The rubber tapping operations in domestic and Southeast Asian main producing areas have progressed smoothly, the impact of climate factors has weakened, and the expected seasonal increase in raw material supply has been realized. The downstream tire enterprises have difficulty in depleting finished - product inventory, which has dragged down the production line operation rate [10]. - The inventory at the port is accelerating accumulation, indicating an increase in supply and a decrease in demand in the fundamentals. The rubber price is likely to continue the weak - oscillation pattern, and it is recommended to hold the strategy of selling call options [10].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

Core Insights - The entire industry is experiencing losses, leading to increased expectations for policy support, which may indicate a potential bottoming out of prices for polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 1 - The current market conditions suggest that short sellers may need to reconsider their positions as the outlook for polysilicon and industrial silicon prices appears to be stabilizing [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The overall reference view is fluctuating strongly. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is fluctuating strongly, and the overall view reference is fluctuating strongly. The core logic is that policy - side favorable expectations form strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising, with a reference view of fluctuating strongly. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and sorted out, rising slightly throughout the day. The full - market trading volume of the stock market was 1575.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 47.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The manufacturing PMI data in June showed a marginal improvement. The risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently due to policy - side support, expectations of incremental funds entering the market, and the easing of external risk factors in the short term. The large - finance and AI technology sectors have become the market's main lines, and the market sentiment is positive and optimistic [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core viewpoint indicates that the economy remains resilient, with signs of improvement in core CPI stability and marginal PMI recovery due to ongoing "stabilization growth" measures [2] - In May, the CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -2.7% to -3.3%. The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.0% to 49.5% [5][6] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from the previous month, while M2 growth slowed to 7.9% [2][17][20] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The May CPI showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. Core CPI remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [5] - The decline in energy prices negatively impacted non-food items, but travel service prices saw a significant rebound, supporting the core CPI [5] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 3.3% was below market expectations, with traditional industry prices mostly declining while new momentum industries saw price increases [6] - Factors affecting PPI include falling international oil prices, seasonal declines in energy and raw material prices, and the impact of consumption and equipment renewal policies [6] Group 4: PMI Developments - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment, driven by tariff delays and proactive macro policies [9] - The production index rose to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [9] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in May decreased to 3.7%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [13] - High-tech industry investments showed strong growth, particularly in information services and aerospace manufacturing [13] Group 6: Credit and M2 Analysis - In May, new credit issuance was 620 billion, reflecting a decrease in consumer loans and a recovery in corporate short-term loans [17] - M2 growth slowed to 7.9%, influenced by a decrease in deposit attractiveness and slower fiscal fund release [20]