Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The commodity market may fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to pressure on liquidity and demand, but in the short - term, the market's previously optimistic environment continues, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] - Precious metals maintain a strong and volatile pattern and continue the upward trend; non - ferrous metals maintain a mild increase; black commodities rise; energy prices follow the external market to rise; chemicals rise slightly; agricultural products rise gently [1][2][3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the overall commodity market rose by 0.79%. Black and precious metals had relatively large increases of 1.79% and 1.25% respectively, while agricultural products, non - ferrous metals, and energy and chemicals rose by 0.54%, 0.36%, and 0.18% respectively [1][5] - Among specific varieties, the top gainers were rebar, hot - rolled coils, and iron ore with increases of 2.57%, 2.56%, and 2.23% respectively, and the top losers were soda ash, LPG, and PTA with decreases of 1.84%, 1.74%, and 1.42% respectively [1] - The funds increased, mainly due to the inflow in the non - ferrous metal direction [1][6] 2. Outlook - The market focused on the passage of the US fiscal bill, tariff issues, and the signals of China - EU cooperation. In the short - term, the market is expected to fluctuate strongly, waiting for new policy signals [1] 3. Sub - sectors Analysis Precious Metals - Gold is supported by factors such as the tense Middle - East geopolitical situation, the increasing expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut, and the weakening of the US dollar index. Global central banks' continuous increase in gold reserves strengthens its asset - allocation value. Silver is driven by gold but has weaker elasticity due to its industrial attributes [2] Non - ferrous Metals - The market is boosted by the improvement of macro - expectations and the weakening of the US dollar. Copper, aluminum and other contracts rise slightly, but the rebound is limited by the short - term fundamentals [2] Black Commodities - Rebar, hot - rolled coils, iron ore and other varieties rise, driven by the improvement of downstream construction, the increase in steel出库 data, and the expectation of infrastructure and real - estate policies in the third quarter. Iron ore is also supported by the decline in port inventory [2] Energy - Crude oil prices rise following the external market, driven by OPEC+ production - cut policies and the increase in US summer travel demand. Domestic crude oil futures and related products also rise, although high inventory still has some suppression [3] Chemicals - The overall chemical market rises slightly. Products like plastics and PP rebound mildly, and PTA and ethylene glycol rise due to upstream cost support. However, the slow recovery of downstream demand restricts the upward momentum [3] Agricultural Products - The agricultural product sector rises gently. Some oil and fat varieties perform well, and the uncertainty of crop growth due to hot weather also supports the market [3] 4. Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally have positive returns, with a total scale of 1,554.56 billion yuan and a 1.48% increase. The total scale of commodity ETFs is 1,615.16 billion yuan with a 1.20% increase [34]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The inter - bank market's funding situation remained loose on Thursday, with overnight rates oscillating at a low level around 1.36%. The 7 - day weighted average rate dropped 3.79bp to 1.4674%. The central bank's liquidity injection is expected to stay loose due to external uncertainties from trade frictions, but the scope for further loosening of the funding situation is limited as long - term bond yields are relatively low and the inter - bank bond market leverage ratio has risen above 108% [4]. - The stock index continued to fluctuate and rise. The US - Vietnam trade agreement may have a negative impact on China's re - export trade, while the lifting of export restrictions on China by three US chip design software suppliers will boost the relevant A - share electronics sector. In the short term, the stock index may present a volatile pattern due to shrinking trading volume and lackluster domestic and foreign positive factors. In the long term, the Politburo meeting in late July will set the policy tone for the second half of the year. Given the possible deterioration of real estate sales and investment and the overall weakness of consumption, policies are expected to further support domestic demand. Additionally, the uncertain US tariff policy, the approaching Fed rate - cut time, and changes in overseas liquidity and geopolitical patterns will bring phased trading opportunities for the stock index [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.51, down 4.43bp; DR007 at 1.91, down 3.79bp; GC001 at 1.15, down 20.00bp; GC007 at 1.49, down 1.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.61, down 1.35bp; LPR 5 - year remained at 3.50; 1 - year treasury bond at 1.34, down 0.50bp; 5 - year treasury bond at 1.49, up 0.50bp; 10 - year treasury bond at 1.65, up 0.10bp; 10 - year US treasury bond at 4.30, up 4.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 572 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 5093 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 4521 billion yuan [3]. 3.2 Stock Index Market - **Index Performance**: The CSI 300 closed at 3968, up 0.62%; SSE 50 at 2725, up 0.07%; CSI 500 at 5923, up 0.50%; CSI 1000 at 6343, up 0.53%. The trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 13098 billion yuan, a decrease of 672 billion yuan from the previous day. Most industry sectors closed higher, with consumer electronics, biopharmaceuticals, electronic components, chemical pharmaceuticals, batteries, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors leading the gains, while shipbuilding and mining sectors leading the losses [5]. - **Futures Contracts**: IF当月 closed at 3947, up 0.7%; IH当月 at 2708, up 0.2%; IC当月 at 5874, up 0.3%; IM当月 at 6279, up 0.3%. IF trading volume was 73590, up 3.9%, and its open interest was 238967, down 0.2%; IH trading volume was 34173, down 8.3%, and its open interest was 80640, down 2.3%; IC trading volume was 64956, down 0.8%, and its open interest was 220451, up 0.7%; IM trading volume was 162960, down 1.7%, and its open interest was 321768, up 0.8% [5]. - **Premium and Discount Situation**: IF升贴水 was 13.16% for the current - month contract, 8.57% for the next - quarter contract, 5.90% for the current - quarter contract, and 4.85% for the next - month contract; IH升贴水 was 1.87% for the current - month contract; IC升贴水 was 14.74% for the current - month contract, 12.12% for the next - quarter contract, 10.16% for the current - quarter contract, and 19.99% for the next - month contract; IM升贴水 was 13.19% for the current - month contract, 15.26% for the next - quarter contract, 24.26% for the current - quarter contract, and 18.07% for the next - month contract [7].

Core Insights - The entire industry is experiencing losses, leading to increased expectations for policy support, which may indicate a potential bottoming out of prices for polysilicon and industrial silicon [1] Group 1 - The current market conditions suggest that short sellers may need to reconsider their positions as the outlook for polysilicon and industrial silicon prices appears to be stabilizing [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index is mainly fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising. The overall reference view is fluctuating strongly. Policy - side favorable expectations provide strong support, and the risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently [1][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Variety Viewpoint Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the IH2509 variety, the short - term view is fluctuating, the medium - term view is rising, the intraday view is fluctuating strongly, and the overall view reference is fluctuating strongly. The core logic is that policy - side favorable expectations form strong support [1] 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is fluctuating strongly, and the medium - term view is rising, with a reference view of fluctuating strongly. Yesterday, each stock index fluctuated and sorted out, rising slightly throughout the day. The full - market trading volume of the stock market was 1575.6 billion yuan, a reduction of 47.5 billion yuan compared with the previous day. The manufacturing PMI data in June showed a marginal improvement. The risk preference of the stock market has recovered recently due to policy - side support, expectations of incremental funds entering the market, and the easing of external risk factors in the short term. The large - finance and AI technology sectors have become the market's main lines, and the market sentiment is positive and optimistic [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The commodity market may oscillate weakly in the short term due to pressure on liquidity and demand. After the easing of the Israel-Iran conflict, market risk appetite has been continuously recovering, and it is waiting for new domestic and foreign policy signals [1]. - Precious metals maintain a high - level volatile trend in the short term, but the medium - and long - term support logic remains unchanged. Non - ferrous metals continue the upward trend, and black metals' prices are rising again. Energy and chemical sectors show a weak performance, and agricultural products are on a weak track [1][2][3][4]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Market Overview - Last week, the overall commodity market declined by 2.00%. The energy and chemical sector fell by 4.23%, agricultural products and precious metals dropped by 1.31% and 0.36% respectively, while black and non - ferrous metals rose by 1.29% and 2.71% respectively [1][6]. - The top - rising varieties were industrial silicon, coking coal, and zinc, with increases of 8.66%, 6.60%, and 3.39% respectively. The top - falling varieties were crude oil, fuel oil, and LU, with decreases of 12.02%, 10.73%, and 8.09% respectively [1][6]. - There was a small outflow of funds, with little overall change [1][6]. 3.2 Outlook - After the Israel - Iran conflict eased, the market's risk preference is continuously recovering. The market is waiting for new policy signals at home and abroad [1]. 3.3 Specific Commodity Analysis 3.3.1 Precious Metals - They maintain a high - level oscillating trend. Gold is caught between the Fed's high - interest - rate stance and the slight slowdown of US core inflation. Although the US dollar index's strength suppresses gold prices to some extent, geopolitical tensions and central banks' strong gold - buying intentions support gold prices. Silver is affected by its industrial nature, and its short - term trend follows gold [2]. 3.3.2 Non - ferrous Metals - They continue the upward trend. The increase in market risk preference and the Fed's policy adjustment boost the metal sector. Copper prices are supported by low overseas inventories and strong domestic demand, and short - term factors like South American mine maintenance increase supply - tightening expectations. Aluminum prices benefit from rising alumina prices and power - rationing expectations [2]. 3.3.3 Black Metals - Their prices are rising again. Steel futures are firm, driven by the strength of iron ore and expectations of policy support. Iron ore inventories at ports are decreasing, and coke prices are stabilizing, with some areas starting a new round of price increases [3]. 3.3.4 Energy - The overall performance is weak. International oil prices are falling after high - level oscillations, mainly due to the cooling of macro - risk aversion, repeated Fed interest - rate hike expectations, an unexpected increase in US commercial crude oil inventories, and doubts about OPEC +'s production - cut implementation [3]. 3.3.5 Chemicals - They continue the weak trend. Most chemical varieties are adjusting. Methanol, PVC, and PTA prices are falling due to supply - side recovery and downstream procurement hesitation. High port inventories and import pressure exacerbate the supply - demand contradiction in the methanol market [3]. 3.3.6 Agricultural Products - The overall trend is weak, with oils and fats falling significantly. The improved weather in South American soybean - producing areas and high domestic soybean inventories suppress the prices of soybean oil and palm oil. Rapeseed meal is weak due to weak aquaculture demand and the price advantage of substitutes [4]. 3.4 Commodity Fund Overview - Gold ETFs generally declined last week, with the total scale increasing by 0.95% and the total trading volume increasing by 12.65%. The energy - chemical ETF and the soybean - meal ETF fell by 4.41% and 4.29% respectively, while the non - ferrous metal ETF rose by 2.19%, and the silver fund rose by 0.83% [35].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index Futures**: Neutral, expecting a sideways trend [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Neutral, with a range - bound outlook [1] - **Precious Metals (Gold and Silver)**: Neutral, with a long - term upward potential for gold [1][4] - **Non - ferrous Metals (Copper, Aluminum, Nickel)**: Copper - Neutral, Aluminum - Slightly Bullish, Nickel - Neutral [4] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Bearish, with a downward trend [4][6] - **Silicon Energy**: Neutral, with limited price fluctuations [6] - **Steel and Ore (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore)**: Neutral, with a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Bearish [8] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: Soda Ash - Bearish, Glass - Bearish [8] - **Crude Oil**: Slightly Bullish [8][10] - **Methanol**: Bullish [10] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish [10] - **Cotton**: Slightly Bullish [10] - **Rubber**: Bearish [10] 2. Core Views - A - share market shows cautious sentiment in the short - term, lacking upward momentum and continuing the sideways pattern. However, with increasing capital volume and clear policy support, the long - term upward trend remains unchanged [1] - The Treasury bond market is affected by overseas geopolitical issues to a limited extent. With the central bank's net injection in the open market, the bond market is running at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] - Precious metals are affected by geopolitical factors, with gold prices oscillating at a high level and a potential long - term upward movement. Silver is more volatile than gold [1][4] - Non - ferrous metals face supply - demand imbalances. Copper has supply constraints but weak demand; aluminum has supply concerns and low inventory support; nickel has an oversupply situation [4] - Carbonate lithium has an increasing supply and weak demand, with a downward price trend [4][6] - Silicon energy has sufficient supply and demand uncertainty, with limited price fluctuations [6] - Steel and ore markets have limited contradictions, and the pressure of raw material valuation adjustment has eased, with prices in a narrow - range sideways movement [6] - Coking coal and coke markets are bearish due to factors such as inventory accumulation and production reduction [8] - Soda ash has a high inventory and weak demand, while glass has a relatively loose supply and weak demand, both with a bearish outlook [8] - Crude oil prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation [8][10] - Methanol production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] - Polyolefins have stable production, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] - Cotton has a strengthening expectation of tight supply and demand, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] - Rubber has an increasing supply and weakening demand, with limited potential for a trend - reversal [10] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Equity Index Futures - Market sentiment is cautious, with limited short - term upward momentum. A - shares continue the sideways pattern, but the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of low - level long - position layout [1] 3.2 Treasury Bond Futures - Overseas geopolitical issues have a limited impact on the domestic bond market. The central bank's net injection in the open market supports the bond market at a high level, but the trend is uncertain [1] 3.3 Precious Metals - Gold prices are oscillating at a high level, with a potential long - term upward movement. It is recommended to buy on dips or hold short - put options. Silver is more volatile than gold, and attention should be paid to stop - loss [1][4] 3.4 Non - ferrous Metals 3.4.1 Copper - Supply is tight, but demand is weak due to macro uncertainties. Prices are affected by market sentiment and funds, with a sideways trend [4] 3.4.2 Aluminum - Alumina has an oversupply pressure, but the downward drive may slow down.沪铝 has low inventory support, with a slightly bullish outlook [4] 3.4.3 Nickel - The supply is in an oversupply situation, but the downward momentum weakens at low prices. It is recommended to hold short - option strategies [4] 3.5 Carbonate Lithium - Supply is increasing, and demand is weak. The price trend is downward [4][6] 3.6 Silicon Energy - Supply is sufficient, and demand is uncertain. Price fluctuations are limited, and it is recommended to hold short - put options [6] 3.7 Steel and Ore 3.7.1 Rebar - Supply is increasing, demand is stable, and inventory is decreasing at a slower pace. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term, with a weak long - term trend. It is recommended to hold short - call options [6] 3.7.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - Supply and demand are both increasing, with a slight inventory reduction. Prices are expected to move in a narrow range in the short - term. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.7.3 Iron Ore - Supply and demand are expected to shift from tight to balanced and slightly loose. Prices are expected to follow steel prices and move in a narrow range. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts [6] 3.8 Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal production is decreasing, but inventory is increasing, with a bearish outlook. Coke production is decreasing, and prices are under downward pressure [8] 3.9 Soda Ash and Glass 3.9.1 Soda Ash - Supply is decreasing in the short - term, but inventory is high, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.9.2 Glass - Supply is relatively loose, and demand is weak. It is recommended to hold short - position contracts or long - glass short - soda ash strategies [8] 3.10 Crude Oil - Prices are supported by geopolitical factors, and the future trend depends on the development of the Middle - East situation. It is recommended to hold long - call options [8][10] 3.11 Methanol - Production is increasing, but downstream losses are expanding. If domestic coal - chemical plants start centralized maintenance, prices will rise further [10] 3.12 Polyolefins - Production is stable, and prices are supported by rising crude oil prices [10] 3.13 Cotton - Supply - demand is expected to be tight, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy [10] 3.14 Rubber - Supply is increasing, demand is decreasing, and the potential for a trend - reversal is limited. Attention should be paid to the tire inventory cycle and demand improvement [10]

Group 1: Economic Indicators - The core viewpoint indicates that the economy remains resilient, with signs of improvement in core CPI stability and marginal PMI recovery due to ongoing "stabilization growth" measures [2] - In May, the CPI remained flat at -0.1%, while the PPI decreased from -2.7% to -3.3%. The manufacturing PMI increased from 49.0% to 49.5% [5][6] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion, an increase of 340 billion from the previous month, while M2 growth slowed to 7.9% [2][17][20] Group 2: CPI Analysis - The May CPI showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.2%, with a year-on-year decline of 0.1%. Core CPI remained stable with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [5] - The decline in energy prices negatively impacted non-food items, but travel service prices saw a significant rebound, supporting the core CPI [5] Group 3: PPI Insights - The PPI's year-on-year decline of 3.3% was below market expectations, with traditional industry prices mostly declining while new momentum industries saw price increases [6] - Factors affecting PPI include falling international oil prices, seasonal declines in energy and raw material prices, and the impact of consumption and equipment renewal policies [6] Group 4: PMI Developments - The manufacturing PMI recorded 49.5%, indicating an improvement in economic sentiment, driven by tariff delays and proactive macro policies [9] - The production index rose to 50.7%, returning to the expansion zone, while the new orders index increased to 49.8% [9] Group 5: Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment growth in May decreased to 3.7%, with real estate investment continuing to decline significantly [13] - High-tech industry investments showed strong growth, particularly in information services and aerospace manufacturing [13] Group 6: Credit and M2 Analysis - In May, new credit issuance was 620 billion, reflecting a decrease in consumer loans and a recovery in corporate short-term loans [17] - M2 growth slowed to 7.9%, influenced by a decrease in deposit attractiveness and slower fiscal fund release [20]

Group 1 - The market experienced a low opening on Monday, followed by a fluctuating upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index facing resistance around 3384 points [1] - Cultural media, gaming, software development, and internet services sectors performed well, while precious metals, jewelry, aviation, and aerospace sectors showed weaker performance [1] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may implement its next interest rate cut as early as September, with further overseas liquidity easing still pending [1] Group 2 - Due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, the market saw significant adjustments in the previous trading day, but fear sentiment has decreased after the weekend, leading to a rebound [2] - The trading volume has decreased significantly, indicating that market sentiment still needs improvement, and the A-share market is likely to continue its fluctuating trend in the short term [2] - The A-share market is currently in a consolidation phase since the "924" rally, with a wide fluctuation trend, and future policy announcements in late July and September are critical for breaking out of this range [2]

Group 1: Overall Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The overall view is that the stock index will maintain a range - bound oscillation in the short term. Although the market sentiment has weakened due to the Middle - East geopolitical crisis and concerns about supply and global demand, the policy - side support is strong, and the market bottom - support power is sufficient. The upward momentum of the market is still restricted by the weak macro - demand expectation [4]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2506, the short - term view is oscillatory, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, and the overall view is range - bound oscillation. The core logic is that the positive policy expectations provide strong support [1]. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IF, IH, IC, and IM, the intraday view is oscillatory and bullish, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is range - bound oscillation. Last Friday, the stock indexes oscillated and declined. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical crisis, market sentiment weakened. However, the weakening of external demand under the tariff war is within market expectations, and the recovery of domestic demand is the key. The weakening of recent macro - economic indicators increases the expectation of policy support, and the market bottom - support power is sufficient. Attention should be paid to the financial policy guidance of the Lujiazui Forum on June 18th. The market's upward momentum is restricted by the weak macro - demand expectation [4].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 21 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡小幅上涨。股市全市场成交额 12112 亿元，较上日放量 923 亿元。二 季度政策面托底经济需求，且稳定股市预期，尤其是强调了加强汇金 ...