五矿期货 纯碱依旧处于震荡行情中 宁证期货 预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行 中辉期货 纯碱中长期反弹偏空为主 五矿期货：纯碱依旧处于震荡行情中 9月22日盘中，纯碱期货主力合约弱势震荡，最低下探至1289.00元。截止发稿，纯碱主力合约报1297.00 元，跌幅1.14%。 纯碱期货主力跌超1%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 宁证期货：预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行 浮法玻璃开工较稳，库存小幅下降，华东市场操作一般，企业多稳价为主，中下游拿货仍偏谨慎，刚需 为主。国内纯碱市场震荡调整，价格持稳运行，厂家库存高位下降，下游需求不温不火，适量询单，低 价补库成交。预计纯碱01合约短期震荡运行，下方支撑1305一线，建议观望或回调短线做多。 中辉期货：纯碱中长期反弹偏空为主 沙河现货重心上移，高价成交一般。重碱需求好转，企业库存四连降，关注下游节前补库节奏。需求端 多数延续刚需，光伏+浮法日熔量维持在25万吨。供给端夏季检修即将结束，装置陆续重启，预计供给 维持宽松格局。策略：需求小幅改善，短线偏多，中长期反弹偏空为主。 供应方面总体稳定，安徽红四方（603395）、湖北新都等装置陆续复产，但 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The urea market opened flat and trended lower today, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to decline, and the futures showed weak rebound. The market sentiment was poor. The high - level supply and high inventory situation restricted the upward movement of urea prices. Although there was a chance of rebound later, the loose market pattern had not reversed, and the market lacked driving forces [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea market opened flat and trended lower, with weak intraday oscillations. The spot price continued to fall, and the futures rebounded weakly. The market sentiment was poor. The daily urea production was expected to remain at a high level, suppressing the urea price. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate of compound fertilizer factories, but the growth rate slowed down. The terminal demand was weak, and the inventory was high. The inventory continued to increase, which restricted the upward movement of urea prices. There was a chance of rebound later, with attention paid to the pressure around 1730 yuan/ton, but the loose pattern had not reversed [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1681 yuan/ton, closed at 1670 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.65%. The trading volume was 286,823 lots (+5,335 lots). Among the top 20 institutional positions, long positions increased by 3,015 lots, and short positions increased by 2,691 lots. On September 18, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 8,188, a decrease of 80 compared to the previous trading day [2]. - **Spot**: The spot price continued to decline. The ex - factory transaction price of small - grain urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton. Some factories in Hebei quoted 1670 - 1680 yuan/ton, but these high - priced factories mainly fulfilled export orders [1][4]. Fundamental Tracking - **Basis**: The mainstream spot market quotation and the futures closing price both decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 20 yuan/ton (+1 yuan/ton) [8]. - **Supply Data**: On September 18, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,000 tons, an increase of 5,400 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.82% [9]. - **Downstream Data**: From September 12 to September 18, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 38.63%, an increase of 0.81 percentage points compared to the previous week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 56.78%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points compared to the previous week [13].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for synthetic rubber has experienced a decline, with the main contract showing weak performance and a nearly 1.85% drop in price [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On September 18, the main contract for synthetic rubber opened at 11,570.0 CNY/ton, fluctuating between a high of 11,590.0 CNY and a low of 11,380.0 CNY [1] - The overall market for synthetic rubber is currently in a downward trend, with weak performance observed [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Analysis - Southwest Futures predicts that the synthetic rubber market will remain volatile this week, influenced by poor industry profits and fluctuating prices of raw material butadiene [1] - The price of butadiene has stabilized, and processing losses have slightly narrowed; however, the capacity utilization rate on the supply side has decreased to around 73%, which is still relatively high year-on-year [1] - Demand from enterprises is better than expected, with an increase in capacity utilization rates [1] - Inventory levels for manufacturers and traders are high both month-on-month and year-on-year, providing some support for prices [1] Group 3: Production Insights - Recent reboots of most styrene-butadiene rubber facilities have led to increased domestic production and ample supply [1] - Some private facilities are undergoing maintenance, but the futures market remains weak, leading to an increase in inventory [1] - This week, a reduction in supply is expected to manifest, potentially leading to lower spot prices and slight decreases in inventory levels [1] Group 4: Demand Trends - Last week, tire manufacturers increased their capacity utilization rates, and it is expected that most companies will maintain production levels this week, with slight fluctuations in overall capacity utilization [1] - The BR2511 contract is anticipated to fluctuate within the range of 11,250 - 11,700 CNY [1] Group 5: Price Dynamics - Recent butadiene prices have remained firm, with tight availability of spot cargoes before shipments arrive [1] - The market is currently characterized by cautious purchasing behavior from end-users, leading to a weak outlook for the futures market [1]

行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 09 月 17 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: September 12, 2025 [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The cost - end demand expectation is poor, the medium - and long - term operating center is declining, the cost support is loosening, and the demand at the initial stage of recovery is insufficient to support raw materials, so the market is oscillating at the bottom. Attention should be paid to the actual improvement of consumption in September [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Plastic Futures**: The opening prices of plastic 2601, 2605, and 2509 were 7222, 7235, and 7142 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 7209, 7220, and 7145 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.33%, - 0.32%, and - 0.28% respectively. The trading volume of plastic 2601 was 218,000 lots, and the positions increased by 16,282 lots to 533,469 lots [5][6]. - **PP Futures**: The opening prices of PP2601, 2605, and 2509 were 6952, 6977, and 6773 yuan/ton respectively, with closing prices of 6939, 6961, and 6805 yuan/ton, and price drops of - 0.17%, - 0.17%, and - 0.40% respectively. The positions of PP2601 increased by 9293 lots to 624,200 lots [5][6]. - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: For PP, the impact of maintenance is weakening, new production capacity is continuously released, and the supply pressure is increasing. The downstream is in the transition stage between peak and off - peak seasons, and the overall recovery trend is not good. For PE, the supply - demand contradiction is not obvious, the short - term maintenance loss is increasing, the new supply is slow, and the downstream agricultural film is expected to drive social inventory reduction [6]. 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On September 11, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 655,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons from the previous working day, a decline of 2.96%. The inventory in the same period last year was 790,000 tons [7]. - **PE Market**: The PE market prices were partially weakly adjusted. The LLDPE prices in North China, East China, and South China were 7120 - 7450, 7200 - 7650, and 7350 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively [7]. - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in the Shandong market was 6680 - 6720 yuan/ton, an increase of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The downstream product cost pressure increased, the market trading atmosphere was average [7]. - **PP Market**: The PP market continued to be weakly adjusted. The mainstream prices of North China, East China, and South China were 6700 - 6870, 6720 - 6940, and 6700 - 6930 yuan/ton respectively [8]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presented figures on L basis, PP basis, L - PP spread, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [14][15][16]

Core Viewpoint - Styrene futures are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with the main contract reaching a peak of 7140.00 yuan and currently trading at 7110.00 yuan, reflecting a 1.69% increase [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Short-term expectations for EB2510 are projected to fluctuate within the range of 6900-7100 yuan, with supply reduction anticipated and downstream demand potentially increasing during the peak season [2][4] - The overall market for styrene is currently in a state of balance between profit and loss, with no significant contradictions in supply and demand. Despite losses widening, production remains high, and port inventories are severely piled up, indicating substantial inventory pressure [3] - The weak overall market for styrene is unlikely to change in the short term, as the industry may need to reduce production loads to alleviate supply pressure [3][5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Downstream industries are expected to slightly adjust their operating loads, with low profits and high inventories continuing to suppress growth in styrene demand [4] - The potential for a decrease in styrene production and capacity utilization is anticipated due to the impact of maintenance on production facilities [4]

Group 1: Market Performance and Outlook - Industrial silicon futures prices fluctuated within a narrow range. The closing price of Si2511 was 8,490 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.29%. The trading volume was 275,841 lots, and the open interest was 279,742 lots, with a net decrease of 1,738 lots [4]. - Sichuan 553 price was 8,900 yuan/ton, Yunnan 553 price was 8,550 yuan/ton; Inner Mongolia 421 price was 9,400 yuan/ton, Xinjiang 421 price was 9,150 yuan/ton, and Sichuan 421 price was 9,600 yuan/ton [4]. - After the high - price adjustment, the spot price remained stable. The fundamentals did not improve significantly. The supply - side increase was obvious, with the weekly output reaching 90,000 tons, equivalent to a monthly output of about 390,000 tons. On the demand side, polysilicon production reduction and sales control in September led to a decrease in monthly output from 145,000 tons to 120,000 - 130,000 tons. The total volume of organic silicon, alloy, and exports remained stable. The industry was in a supply - demand imbalance again without inventory - reduction drivers. Policy implementation did not focus on the industrial silicon industry, and the fundamentals had insufficient driving force, so the futures market fluctuated widely [4]. Group 2: Market News - On September 4th, the number of futures warehouse receipts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 50,348 lots, a net increase of 319 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - According to customs data, in July 2025, the export of metallic silicon was 74,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.32% and a year - on - year increase of 36.75%. From January to July 2025, China's total export of metallic silicon was 414,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.04% [5]. - From January to July 2025, the cumulative photovoltaic installed capacity reached 1,109.6 GW, and the new photovoltaic installed capacity from January to July was 223.25 GW. The single - month new installed capacity in July was 11 GW, a year - on - year decrease of 47.7%, hitting a new low in 2025 [5].

Report Information - Report Title: Zinc Futures Daily Report [1] - Date: September 4, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [4] - Researchers: Peng Jinglin, Zhang Ping, Yu Feifei [4] Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View - The Shanghai zinc market fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,2285 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.09%. There is an increasing divergence between domestic and foreign markets, and the processing fees continue to rise. Although the zinc ingot production remains at a high level despite short - term disturbances from Guangxi smelters, the demand side is supported by policies but shows short - term weakness. The production restriction in North China suppresses the galvanizing consumption, and the pressure of supply - demand surplus is reflected in the inventory. The social inventory increased to 146,300 tons on Monday. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 375 tons to 55,225 tons, the lowest level since May 2023. The 0 - 3 spread B continued to strengthen to 20.44. The expectation of macro - interest rate cuts and continuous de - stocking in LME boosted the external market, but the divergence in the fundamental situation between domestic and foreign markets continued, resulting in a narrow - range oscillation of Shanghai zinc [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Futures Market Quotes**: For SHFE zinc 2509, the opening price was 22,255 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,230 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,340 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,200 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.02%, with a position of 9,610 and a position change of - 1,455. For SHFE zinc 2510, the opening price was 22,250 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,390 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,230 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.09%, with a position of 104,733 and a position change of - 2,929. For SHFE zinc 2511, the opening price was 22,245 yuan/ton, the closing price was 22,285 yuan/ton, the highest was 22,380 yuan/ton, the lowest was 22,215 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan or 0.16%, with a position of 66,280 and a position change of 1,473 [7]. 2. Industry News - **0 Zinc Transaction Prices**: On September 3, 2025, the mainstream transaction price of 0 zinc was concentrated between 22,250 - 22,360 yuan/ton, that of Shuangyan was between 22,380 - 22,490 yuan/ton, and that of 1 zinc was between 22,180 - 22,290 yuan/ton. In the morning, the market quoted a premium of 20 - 30 yuan/ton to the SMM average price, and there were few quotes against the futures. In the second trading session, ordinary domestic brands were quoted at a discount of 30 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Honglu - v was quoted at a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract, Huize was quoted at a premium of 60 - 70 yuan/ton to the 2509 contract, and the high - end brand Shuangyan was quoted at a premium of 100 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract [8]. - **Regional Market Quotes**: In the Ningbo market, the mainstream brands of 0 zinc were traded at around 22,240 - 22,340 yuan/ton, and the regular brands were quoted at a discount of 40 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a premium of 30 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price. In the Tianjin market, 0 zinc ingots were mainly traded between 22,210 - 22,360 yuan/ton, and 1 zinc ingots were traded around 22,160 - 22,280 yuan/ton. In the Guangdong market, 0 zinc was mainly traded between 22,180 - 22,320 yuan/ton, and the mainstream brands were quoted at a discount of 80 yuan/ton to the 2510 contract and a discount of 10 yuan/ton to the Shanghai spot price [8]. 3. Data Overview - **Data Charts**: The report shows charts including the price trends of zinc in two markets, SHFE monthly spreads, SMM's weekly inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions, and LME zinc inventory, with data sources from Wind, SMM, and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12]

Group 1 - The low-sulfur fuel oil futures market is showing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 3504.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 3563.00 CNY, reflecting a 2.28% increase [1] - New Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil arrivals were sufficient in August, primarily contributed by Indonesia and Nigeria, which is expected to provide marginal benefits as European volumes decline due to reduced East-West arbitrage [1] - Geopolitical risks have sparked market enthusiasm, leading to an upward movement in fuel oil prices, while the overall market fundamentals are showing slight improvement [1] Group 2 - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year-on-year, and China's bonded marine fuel demand also fell by 1%, while domestic refinery production of marine fuel was down by 19% year-on-year [2] - Both Singapore and Fujairah's land fuel oil inventories have increased month-on-month, indicating a lack of bullish support for low-sulfur fuel oil prices [2] - The geopolitical premium is supporting the FU market, making it relatively stronger compared to low-sulfur fuel oil [2]

Market Overview - The silicon iron futures contract 2511 closed at 5624 CNY/ton, down 0.60% [1] Fundamental Summary - The operating rate of 136 independent silicon iron enterprises is 36.54%, a slight increase of 0.02% from last week [2] - The average daily output is 16,155 tons, a decrease of 0.31% from last week, equating to a reduction of 50 tons [2] - The weekly demand for five major steel types is 20,573.6 tons, an increase of 1.47% from last week, while the national silicon iron production is 113,100 tons [2] - The inventory level of 60 independent silicon iron enterprises is 62,910 tons, an increase of 1.34%, which is an increase of 830 tons [2] - Inventory breakdown: Inner Mongolia 33,600 tons (up 1,400), Ningxia 7,800 tons (down 200), Gansu 5,760 tons (down 190), Shaanxi 7,510 tons (up 100), Qinghai 8,240 tons (down 280), Sichuan 0 tons (unchanged) [2] Institutional Perspectives - Zhonghui Futures notes that weekly production continues to increase while demand is declining, leading to a loosening of the fundamentals [3] - Inventory levels are still high despite a recent decrease, indicating significant overall inventory pressure [3] - Recent market sentiment has weakened, with a preference for short positions in high price scenarios [3] - Ruida Futures highlights that several small and medium-sized banks have recently lowered deposit rates by 10 to 20 basis points, with three-year fixed rates entering the 1.25% range [3] - Profit margins have improved, leading to a rapid increase in production in recent weeks, while steel demand expectations remain generally weak [3] - Current profit margins: Inner Mongolia at -185 CNY/ton; Ningxia at -40 CNY/ton [3] - August steel mill procurement prices have increased by 100 CNY/ton compared to the previous month [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the daily K-line is positioned between the 20 and 60 moving averages, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [3]