Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that after a significant market surge in 2025, the momentum for the prices of non-ferrous metals and stocks remains strong, supported by supply disruptions, localized high demand, and inventory accumulation, with liquidity easing and geopolitical tensions likely amplifying price elasticity for metals [1] Group 1: Market Performance and Price Trends - In 2025, the CITIC non-ferrous metal sector index increased by 98.6%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 77.4 percentage points [1] - The leading segments included tungsten (+144.8%), nickel, cobalt, tin, and antimony (+130.7%), and copper (+123.9%) [1] - Precious metals showed the most significant price increases, with average prices for gold and silver in 2025 rising over 70% year-on-year [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply disruptions in the metal industry are expected to become more frequent and severe, with significant price increases for cobalt, tin, lithium, copper, and nickel due to these disturbances [2] - Structural demand resilience remains strong despite potential weaknesses in sectors like real estate and home appliances, with high demand expected in areas such as power grid investment, energy storage batteries, and AI servers [2] - Inventory accumulation driven by trade disputes is expected to amplify demand for copper, lithium, and rare earths, leading to price increases [2] Group 3: Trading Activity and Geopolitical Impact - The report anticipates that global liquidity will remain loose in 2026, with increased trading activity in precious metals likely leading to unexpected price surges for silver, copper, tin, and lithium carbonate [3] - Ongoing geopolitical conflicts are expected to elevate risk aversion, driving up prices for precious metals and extending to other non-ferrous metals like copper, rare earths, tungsten, and natural uranium [3] Group 4: Price Outlook for Major Metals in 2026 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from monetary attributes and sustained risk aversion, with gold projected to reach $6,000 per ounce and silver potentially rising to $120 per ounce due to extreme shortages and trading enthusiasm [4] - Supply constraints and resilient demand are expected to support strong price performance for copper and aluminum, with average prices projected at $12,000 per ton and 23,000 yuan per ton, respectively [4] - Battery metals like lithium are anticipated to rise to a price range of 120,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton, while cobalt prices are expected to be between 400,000 and 500,000 yuan per ton due to quota reductions [4] - Other metals such as rare earths, tungsten, tin, and natural uranium are expected to continue benefiting from supply-demand tightness, with price targets of 600,000 to 800,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 550,000 yuan per ton, 450,000 to 500,000 yuan per ton, and $100 per pound, respectively [4]

行业 铝日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员:张平 021-60635734 zhangpin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 铝观点： 铝价经过短期调整后 28 日资金增仓拉涨，沪铝主力 2603 拉升 5.75%最高至 25680 元/吨，再次刷新上市高点，总持仓大幅增加 9.3 万手至 81 万手，伦铝最 高至 3314 美元/吨。铝价上涨带动产业链品种全面上涨，氧化铝期价上涨 3.27% 至 2811，铝合金上涨 3.35%报 23785。市场情绪主要受到美国和伊朗冲突升级引 发海外物流供应担忧所点燃，叠加隔夜美元指数暴挫超 1%导致贵金属继续拉涨， 资 ...

近期美元指数大幅走弱、创四年新低，总体利好港股，且恒生指数期货等衍生品临近最后交易日(每月 倒数第二个交易日)，使得多空双方博弈加剧，正逢北京时间1月29日凌晨美联储议息会议和新美联储主 席人选预热，市场波动率显著上行。 1月29日凌晨，靴子落地。美联储1月会议维持利率不变，符合市场预期。理事沃勒投下反对票，或与其 希望被提名为下一任美联储主席有关。中金公司（601995）认为：美联储在2026年仍有望降息两次，但 首次降息或推迟至第二季度。 数据显示，港股市场开年以来出现外资和南向共振流入，外资斜率明显更高。EPFR口径下主动外资已 连续两次正流入，系2024年9月以来首次，被动外资流入港股速度同样维持高位，近两周单周分别流入 26.6亿美元、17.1亿美元。 1月29日，恒生指数突破27800点，创2021年以来的近四年新高。对此，华泰证券策略团队分析称：港股 大幅上涨，或归因于流动性宽松交易延续、衍生品放大波动等技术因素。 -港股科技旗舰指数：恒生科技指数ETF(513180.SH)，覆盖港股互联网/硬科技龙头； -互联网巨头及传媒软件：恒生互联网ETF(513330.SH)及其联接C(013172)， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve decided to maintain the federal funds rate target range at 3.5%-3.75%, marking the first pause in rate cuts after three consecutive reductions in the second half of 2025. The assessment of economic activity was upgraded to "expanding at a robust pace," indicating signs of stabilization in the unemployment rate and persistent inflation above target levels [1] Group 1: Precious Metals - Precious metals continue to rise, with international gold prices reaching historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment. The market's concerns over U.S. debt sustainability and the independence of the Federal Reserve have led to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][15] - The recent FOMC meeting's decision to pause rate cuts has improved concerns regarding employment risks, supporting the upward trend in precious metals. The demand for strategic allocation in precious metals is increasing, with gold and silver ETF sizes expanding [2][15] Group 2: Oil - The SC night market saw an increase of 1.54% in oil prices. The easing of tensions in Venezuela and potential diplomatic engagement between the U.S. and Iran have contributed to this rise. Venezuela is advancing a comprehensive oil law reform, allowing both foreign and local companies to independently develop oil fields [3][10] - As of January 16, the average daily U.S. crude oil production was 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][10] Group 3: Aluminum - The night market for aluminum saw an increase of 1.87%. However, the current upward drivers in the spot market are limited, with the aluminum water ratio declining below 75%. The operating rates of leading downstream aluminum enterprises have also decreased, reflecting weak consumption sentiment [3][19] - Despite a weak short-term fundamental outlook, long-term narratives of low inventory, supply constraints, and stable demand provide relative support for aluminum prices [19] Group 4: Economic Indicators - The U.S. stock market has shown a positive trend in 2026, driven by the technology cycle, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas funds. The market is transitioning from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth [7] - The Federal Reserve's decision to maintain the benchmark interest rate aligns with market expectations, and the economic outlook remains uncertain with inflation still relatively high [4][9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the recent fluctuations in the US dollar, with President Trump stating that he is not concerned about the dollar's decline, which has led to a drop in the dollar index to a four-year low of 95.7905, down over 1% [1][7] - The People's Bank of China reported that by the end of Q4 2025, 275,000 technology-oriented SMEs received loans, with a loan approval rate of 50.2%, an increase of 2 percentage points from the previous year [1] - The total balance of RMB loans from financial institutions reached 271.91 trillion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, with an annual increase of 16.27 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - Precious metals have seen a significant rebound, with gold prices reaching new historical highs due to geopolitical tensions and a loose liquidity environment, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][19] - The market is concerned about the sustainability of US debt and the independence of the Federal Reserve, which has weakened the dollar's credibility and increased central bank demand for gold [2][19] - The expansion of gold and silver ETFs has contributed to the rise in precious metal prices, with silver experiencing larger short-term gains but potential profit-taking pressure, while gold remains more stable [2][19] Group 3 - Oil prices increased by 1.54% following President Trump's comments about potential diplomatic engagement with Iran and easing tensions in Venezuela, where a comprehensive oil law reform is being advanced [3][14] - The average daily production of US crude oil was reported at 13.732 million barrels, a decrease of 21,000 barrels from the previous week but an increase of 255,000 barrels year-on-year [3][14] Group 4 - The US stock market, particularly the NASDAQ, has shown positive performance, driven by a combination of technological cycles, policy benefits, economic recovery, and the return of overseas capital [4][12] - The market's transition from valuation expansion to profit-driven growth is noted, with expectations for continued upward movement in the stock market supported by supply-side reforms and policy effects [4][12]

Core Viewpoint - The lead market is experiencing a strong rebound driven by macroeconomic policies, monetary environment, and industrial logic, with significant support from supply constraints and demand resilience ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The global macroeconomic landscape is characterized by a "loose East and weak West" pattern, with the People's Bank of China signaling clear easing through MLF excess renewals, and domestic manufacturing PMI data showing signs of demand resilience [1]. - The weakening US dollar index has reached a new low, enhancing the global purchasing power and financial attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Supply is constrained by environmental regulations, maintenance, and raw material shortages, providing rigid support for prices [2]. - Demand is bolstered by policies such as the extension of the vehicle purchase tax and trade-in incentives, along with pre-holiday stocking needs, demonstrating core resilience [2]. Group 3: Market Predictions - The lead market is expected to maintain a strong oscillation within the range of 17,000 to 17,500 yuan per ton, supported by macroeconomic easing signals, rigid supply constraints, and pre-holiday demand [3]. - The current trading behavior is primarily driven by downstream purchasing needs, while the acceptance of high prices by downstream enterprises may limit upward price movement [3].

华金 证券表示，短期春季行情继续进行中，A股维持震荡偏强趋势。短期经济和盈利仍处于弱修复趋势 中。一是短期经济仍呈弱修复趋势。二是短期盈利增速可能继续处于回升周期中：首先，短期PPI同比 增速可能继续回升；其次，A股盈利继续维持结构性回升趋势。短期流动性维持宽松。一是短期宏观流 动性维持宽松：首先，美元指数低位进一步回落，海外对国内流动性宽松的掣肘较小；其次，国内仍可 能进一步降准降息。二是短期股市资金仍可能维持较快流入。短期风险偏好可能进一步上升。一是短期 积极的政策预期可能进一步上升。二是短期外部风险相对有限。 ...

2026年1月23日，全球金融市场呈现"内松外荡"的鲜明特征。国内央行加码流动性投放托底节前资金 面，国际市场贵金属价格狂飙冲击关键关口，A股龙头板块分化震荡，多重因素交织下，金融交易市场 迎来政策与情绪驱动的结构性行情。在流动性宽松预期、地缘政治扰动与政策不确定性的三重博弈中， 市场资金流向呈现明显的避险与配置双重特征，为交易者提供了兼具机会与风险的操作窗口。 国内市场层面，央行今日开展的9000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)操作成为流动性调控的核心亮点。本次操 作期限为1年期，采用固定数量、利率招标方式进行，而本月仅有2000亿元MLF到期，这意味着单此一 项实现净投放7000亿元。叠加本月买断式逆回购已净投放的3000亿元，1月中期流动性净投放总额高达1 万亿元，规模远超市场预期，创下近期月度投放新高。 值得关注的是，今日金融市场呈现明显的联动博弈特征。黄金与美元兑日元走势分化，前者高位震荡偏 强，后者则陷入极致窄幅波动，日内波幅不足0.3个点，反映出市场对主要经济体政策动向的高度敏 感。国内流动性宽松与国际避险升温形成的"内外呼应"，使得资金在不同资产类别间的切换速度加快， 既推升了贵金属等避险资产价格， ...

Core Insights - The narrative of non-ferrous metals, particularly energy metals, will continue to evolve in 2026, driven by a complex interplay of supply-demand balance, liquidity easing, and resource value reassessment [1][4] - The simultaneous rise of copper and gold, traditionally viewed as inversely correlated, is attributed to three main factors: global liquidity easing, inflation-driven appreciation of physical assets, and the core drivers of each metal creating a resonance effect [1][2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Copper prices are primarily driven by insufficient supply and strong demand from new sectors such as AI computing centers and grid modernization, while gold prices are supported by ongoing central bank purchases and concerns over the credibility of the US dollar [2] - The current supply-demand tightness is expected to persist until at least 2028, with new growth points in demand including energy storage, AI computing, global infrastructure projects, and increased military spending due to geopolitical tensions [2] Potential Investment Directions - Lithium, particularly lithium carbonate, is on the verge of a demand surge due to the expansion of energy storage applications, driven by new pricing policies [3] - Strategic minor metals such as rare earths, tungsten, molybdenum, cobalt, nickel, and tin are expected to see continued value reassessment, influenced by geopolitical factors and supply chain concentration [3] - Gold remains a key asset as a global ultimate currency, with a clear long-term upward trend due to the declining value of the US dollar and ongoing central bank purchases exceeding 1,000 tons annually [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices have surged, with spot gold in London surpassing $4800 per ounce, leading to significant increases in gold ETFs [1][2]. Short-term Drivers - The escalation of geopolitical risks and macroeconomic disturbances have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset, making global geopolitical tensions a key catalyst for short-term gold price increases [4]. - Recent U.S. economic data showed a lower-than-expected rebound in the December 2025 CPI, with core CPI rising by 0.2% against a forecast of 0.3%. Additionally, initial jobless claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000, the lowest since late November, which may impact interest rate expectations [4]. Medium to Long-term Support - Global liquidity easing and a trend towards de-dollarization are expected to provide solid support for gold prices. In the past year, nine out of ten G10 countries have lowered interest rates, which is anticipated to continue, reducing the holding costs of gold [5]. - Concerns over U.S. debt and government intervention have led central banks to increase gold reserves, with recent data indicating that global central bank gold holdings have surpassed U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time since 1996. This trend is likely to persist [6]. - The combination of a Federal Reserve rate-cutting cycle, increasing global uncertainties, and de-dollarization trends positions gold as a potential new asset pricing anchor, with Citibank predicting a spot gold price of $5000 per ounce in the next three months [6]. Investment Opportunities - Investors are encouraged to consider gold-related ETFs to capitalize on the entire industry chain. The two core investment vehicles highlighted are: - Gold Fund ETF (518800): Direct investment in physical gold, exempt from value-added tax, providing a convenient tool for ordinary investors to track gold price movements [7]. - Gold Stock ETF (517400): Covers stocks across the entire gold industry, allowing investors to benefit from rising gold prices and industry growth [7].