2026年01月06日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-能源化工 观点与策略 | 对二甲苯：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | --- | --- | | PTA：成本支撑，高位震荡市 | 2 | | MEG：上方空间有限，中期仍有压力 | 2 | | 橡胶：震荡运行20260106 | 4 | | 合成橡胶:短期中枢上移 | 6 | | LLDPE：上游库存转移，基差走强 | 8 | | PP：1月多套PDH计划检修，基差走强 | 9 | | 烧碱：不宜追空 | 10 | | 纸浆：宽幅震荡20260106 | 12 | | 玻璃：原片价格平稳 | 14 | | 甲醇：短期偏强 | 15 | | 尿素：震荡中枢上移 | 17 | | 苯乙烯：短期震荡 | 19 | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 21 | | LPG：地缘因素扰动成本，关注下行驱动兑现 | 22 | | 丙烯：上下驱动有限，现货走势企稳 | 22 | | PVC：短期偏强，中期震荡 | 25 | | 燃料油：涨势暂歇，下方存在支撑 | 26 | | 低硫燃料油：窄幅震荡，外盘现货高低硫价差暂时平稳 | 26 | | 集运指数（欧线）：关注开舱指 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周一，CBOT大豆收高，受助于年初的基金买盘。周边市场普涨，溢出的买盘利多盘面。周一的出口销 售报告显示，截至12月25日当周，美豆净销售117.77万吨，较之前一周增加，但较四周均值减少。美豆 检验量98万吨，符合市场预期。StoneX上调巴西大豆产量预估值1.776亿吨。国内方面，两粕窄幅震 荡，市场交投清淡。周边商品普涨，给蛋白粕价格提供支撑力量。但是现货库存回升，现货基差偏弱， 限制涨幅。元旦小长假临近，资金偏向谨慎，预计价格震荡为主。豆粕上下空间均有限，区间震荡思路 不变。策略上，双卖策略。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周一，BMD棕榈油收高，因马币走软且美豆油走强。周一一项调查显示，马棕油12月库存攀升至七年 最高水平，因产量强劲超过了出口的温和改善。印尼统计局表示，2025年1-11月印尼出口棕榈油及产 品，较上年同期增加4.32%。国际油价上涨，市场衡量中东紧张局势可能扰动供应。国内方面， ...

财达期货｜生猪玉米周报 财达期货｜生猪、玉米周报 2026-01-05 生猪现货重心上移，玉米市场供需博弈 研究员 姓名：田金莲 F3046737 Z0015545 生猪 上周生猪期货小幅高开，LH2603 合约报收 11795 元/吨，较前 周结算价上涨 1.81%。 从业资格号： 投资咨询号： 现货方面，全国外三元生猪市场价为 12.24 元/公斤，环比上 涨 0.61 元/吨。利润方面，截至 1 月 2 日，自繁自养生猪养殖利润 为-34.59 元/头，环比增加 95.52 元/头；外购仔猪养殖利润为 -48.35 元/头，环比增加 114.35 元/头；猪粮比价为 5.37，周环比 提高 0.35。 节前全国生猪现货价格重心上移，各企业月度计划基本完成， 市场供应端缩量明显， 叠加元旦假期情绪提振，市场成交相对积 极，养殖端挺价看涨氛围浓厚，生猪价格震荡偏强。节后来看，月 初供应压力有限，养殖场出栏积极性不高，但随着企业恢复正常出 栏节奏，叠加节后利好消退，屠宰端收购力度减弱，终端消费跟进 不足，市场供大于求格局难改，生猪价格仍有稳中偏弱预期。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 第 1 页 共 7 页 ...

期货研究报告 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 铁矿石：主力期价偏强震荡，录得 0.95%日涨幅，量缩仓增。现阶 段，利多因素发酵支撑矿价高位运行，但供应居高不下，而需求改善受 限，基本面表现偏弱，上行驱动不强，预计矿价维持高位震荡运行态 势，关注钢厂补库情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 7 请务必阅读文末免责条款 请务必阅读文末免责条款部分 1 / 8 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会 授予的期货从业资格证书，期 货投资咨询资格证书，本人承 诺以勤勉的职业态度，独立、 客观地出具本报告。本报告清 晰准确地反映了本人的研究观 点。本人不会因本报告中的具 体推荐意见或观点而直接或间 接接收到任何形式的报酬。 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2026 年 1 月 5 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业格局不一，钢矿强弱分化 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价弱势下行，录得 0.74%日跌幅 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term supply of methanol is relatively abundant, and the inventory is expected to increase overall in the winter due to weak demand expectations. The port inventory continued to accumulate last week but is expected to decline from high levels in January due to expected import reduction. The domestic methanol - to - olefins industry's operating rate decreased slightly last week, but there is an expectation of an increase. The MA2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2190 - 2280 in the short term [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main methanol contract is 2215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan; the 5 - 9 spread is 43 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan. The main contract's open interest is 773,584 lots, an increase of 42,196 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders is - 128,251 lots, a decrease of 21,279 lots. The number of warehouse receipts is 6,648, unchanged [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price in Jiangsu Taicang is 2170 yuan/ton, an increase of 30 yuan; the price in Inner Mongolia is 1857.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan. The price difference between East China and Northwest is 312.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan. The basis of the main Zhengzhou methanol contract is - 45 yuan/ton, an increase of 5 yuan. The CFR price at the main Chinese port is 257 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR price in Southeast Asia is 320 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The FOB price in Rotterdam is 256 euros/ton, unchanged; the price difference between the main Chinese port and Southeast Asia is - 63 US dollars/ton, unchanged [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of NYMEX natural gas is 3.64 US dollars/million British thermal units, a decrease of 0.07 US dollars [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The inventory at East China ports is 104.71 tons, an increase of 3.98 tons; the inventory at South China ports is 43.03 tons, an increase of 2.51 tons. The methanol import profit is - 15 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.5 yuan. The monthly import volume is 141.76 tons, a decrease of 19.5 tons. The inventory of inland enterprises is 422,600 tons, an increase of 18,600 tons. The operating rate of methanol enterprises is 90.31%, a decrease of 0.93% [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The operating rate of formaldehyde is 38.24%, a decrease of 4.19%; the operating rate of dimethyl ether is 3.6%, a decrease of 3.49%. The operating rate of acetic acid is 80.3%, an increase of 2.71%; the operating rate of MTBE is 68.01%, unchanged. The operating rate of olefins is 87.46%, a decrease of 1.8%. The methanol - to - olefins disk profit is - 1115 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan [3] 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of methanol is 16.39%, a decrease of 0.02%; the 40 - day historical volatility is 15.44%, a decrease of 0.04%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for methanol is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.76%; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options is 19.85%, a decrease of 0.77% [3] 3.7 Industry News - As of December 31, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 42.26 tons, a 4.61% increase; the sample enterprises' orders to be delivered was 18.30 tons, a 5.48% decrease. The total methanol port inventory in China was 147.74 tons, an increase of 6.49 tons, with both East and South China ports accumulating inventory. The domestic methanol - to - olefins device capacity utilization rate was 88.66%, a decrease of 0.02%. Recently, the domestic methanol production loss from maintenance and production cuts is less than the output increase from recovery, leading to an overall increase in production [3]

热轧卷板产业链日报 2026/1/5 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,248 | -22↓ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1294526 | +26969↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | 28,599 | +15719↑ HC5-10合约价差(元/吨) | -23 | 0.00 | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 132188 | 0.00 HC2605-RB2605合约价差(元/吨) | 144 | -4↓ | | 现货市场 | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,290.00 | -20.00↓ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,250.00 | -10.00↓ | | | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,330.00 | 0.00 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,170.00 | -10.00↓ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 42.00 | + ...

光期研究 见微知著 煤化工策略月报 202 6 年 1 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 目 录 1、期货市场及产业链原料情况 2、尿素：1月供需双增预期，盘面坚挺运行 3、纯碱：基本面和外部因素博弈，期价坚挺运行 4、玻璃：1月供需两端继续博弈，盘面底部震荡 p 2 | 品 | 观 点 总 结 | | --- | --- | | 种 | | | | 1、期货价格：12月尿素期货价格宽幅震荡，趋势先抑制后仰，截至12月31日收盘主力05合约报1749元/吨，月度涨幅0.4%。 | | | 2、现货价格：12月尿素现货价格偏强震荡，截至12月31日，山东、河南地区市场价格分别为1710元/吨、1700元/吨，二者均较11月底上涨40 | | | 元/吨。 | | | 3、供应：12月尿素供应整体低位波动，一方面行业处于气头企业负荷下降周期，另一方面月内检修、故障频率提升。截至12月31日，尿素 | | | 日产量19.48万吨，较11月底的20.34万吨下降4.23%。1月之后气头企业负荷或逐步回升，但需关注环保因 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the newly released "Basic Rules for the Medium and Long-term Electricity Market" (referred to as "25 Rules") in the context of supporting high-quality development of renewable energy in China, especially in a spot market environment [3]. Group 1: Definition of Medium and Long-term - The term "medium and long-term" in the electricity market encompasses two dimensions: "far" and "long," where "far" refers to transactions conducted well in advance of electricity delivery, and "long" refers to transactions involving electricity over extended periods [4]. - The "25 Rules" clarify that medium and long-term trading involves electricity products or services for future periods, including various time dimensions such as years, months, and shorter intervals [4]. Group 2: Role of Medium and Long-term Market - The medium and long-term market plays a crucial role in stabilizing supply and demand relationships by allowing parties to lock in prices and revenues, thereby reducing risks associated with supply fluctuations and financial uncertainties [5]. - From a "long" perspective, the medium and long-term market facilitates trading across multiple time periods with different price levels, helping to mitigate risks associated with price volatility [5]. Group 3: Changes and Developments in New Rules - The inclusion of new types of market participants, such as energy storage and virtual power plants, enhances the market's risk management capabilities and supports innovative trading systems [8]. - The "25 Rules" provide clearer definitions of rights and obligations for market participants, detailing the information they must provide, such as power plant maintenance schedules and demand forecasts [8]. - The trading methods have been diversified to improve market liquidity, with requirements for regular and continuous trading sessions to address uncertainties arising from increased penetration of renewable energy [9]. - Green electricity trading has been incorporated into the new rules, promoting long-term green power transactions and establishing flexible contract adjustment mechanisms [9]. - The new rules emphasize market-driven pricing mechanisms and the need for coordination with spot market mechanisms, ensuring that prices reflect market conditions [10]. - The "25 Rules" aim to create a comprehensive, low-cost, transparent, and highly liquid medium and long-term market, essential for balancing supply and demand risks and price anomalies in the context of rapid renewable energy development [10].

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瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.31」 螺纹钢市场周报 现货成交清淡 螺纹期价区间波动 研究员：蔡跃辉 期货从业资格号F0251444 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0013101 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 「 周度要点小结2」 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场 「周度要点小结1」 行情回顾 3 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 价格及价差：截至12月31日收盘，螺纹主力合约期价3122（+4），杭州螺纹中天现货价格3330（+20）。（单位： 元/吨/周） 2. 产量：螺纹产量上调。184.39（+2.71），同比（-31.91）。（单位：万吨） 3. 需求：表观需求回落。本期表需202.68（-5.96），（同比-16.9）。（单位：万吨） 4. 库存：厂库增，社库继续下滑。螺纹钢总库存434.25（-18.29），（同比+34.51）。（单位：万吨） 5. 盈利率：钢厂盈利率37.23%，环比上周增加1.30个百分点，同比去年减少12.55个百分点。 行情展望 4 来源：瑞达期货研究院 1. 宏观方面：海外，（1）美联储公布的12月会议纪要显示，F ...