| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月29日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | Z0019938 | | 臣治 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 0月25日 | 涨跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 | 江苏一级 8470 | | 8440 | 30 | 0.36% | | 期价 | Y2601 8162 | | 8192 | -30 | -0.37% | | 墓差 | Y2601 308 | | 248 | 60 | 24.19% | | 现货墓差报价 | 01+220 江苏1月 | | 01+230 | -10 | r | | 仓单 | 25534 | | 25534 | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕櫚油 | | | | | | | | 9月26日 | | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 | 广东24度 9230 | | 9170 | 60 | 0.65% | | 期分 | P2601 9236 | | 9222 | 14 | ...

Group 1: Core Views - Palm oil in the international market: After continuous rebounds, Malaysia's BMD crude palm oil futures may face resistance around 4,450 ringgit. With potential downward pressure, there's a risk of seeking support at 4,300 ringgit. After a second - round adjustment and stabilization, there's a chance of a rebound, maintaining a near - weak and far - strong view [3]. - Palm oil in the domestic market: Dalian palm oil futures rose and then fell, facing resistance at the 40 - day moving average of 9,350 yuan. There's a risk of a decline, potentially following Malaysia's palm oil and retesting the 8,800 - 9,000 yuan range. Watch for the possibility of breaking through 9,350 yuan and beware of post - National Day holiday decline risks [3]. - Soybean oil: CBOT soybeans and soy oil are in narrow - range oscillations, and BMD palm oil is also slightly fluctuating. Affected by uncertain Sino - US trade relations, funds are likely to withdraw before the holiday. Spot备货 is mostly finished, and the market will enter the holiday mode. Domestic soybean oil futures will maintain a range - bound trend, with the January contract supported at 8,000 yuan [4]. - Bean meal: Argentina's completed export quota eases its impact on the domestic market. Weak reality and risk - aversion sentiment pressure the market. Before the holiday, Dalian bean meal will oscillate around 2,950 yuan. Spot prices are expected to range from 2,900 to 3,150 yuan/ton [16]. Group 2: Price Data Oil Price Data - Palm oil: Palm oil 01 is at 9,236 yuan/ton with a 0.15% increase; Palm oil 05 is at 9,052 yuan/ton with a 0.24% increase; Palm oil 09 is at 8,660 yuan/ton with a 0.07% increase; BMD palm oil主力 is at 4,406 ringgit/ton with a - 0.74% decrease; Guangzhou 24 - degree palm oil is at 9,190 yuan/ton with a 50 - yuan increase [7]. - Soybean oil: Soybean oil 01 is at 8,162 yuan/ton with a - 1.01% decrease; Soybean oil 05 is at 7,926 yuan/ton with a - 0.4% decrease; Soybean oil 09 is at 7,858 yuan/ton with a - 0.42% decrease; CBOT soybean oil主力 is at 50.2 cents/pound with a 0.86% increase; Shandong first - grade soybean oil spot is at 8,380 yuan/ton with a 30 - yuan increase [13]. Oil Spread Data - Palm oil spreads: P 1 - 5 is 192 yuan/ton with a 10 - yuan increase; P 5 - 9 is 376 yuan/ton with a 20 - yuan increase; P 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease [5]. - Soybean oil spreads: Y 1 - 5 is 262 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan increase; Y 5 - 9 is 68 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan increase; Y 9 - 1 is - 326 yuan/ton with a 6 - yuan decrease [5]. - Other spreads: Y - P 01 is - 1,030 yuan/ton with a 4 - yuan decrease; Y - P 05 is - 1,100 yuan/ton with an 8 - yuan decrease; Y - P 09 is - 802 yuan/ton with a 14 - yuan decrease; Y/M 01 is 2.761 with a - 0.13% decrease; Y/M 05 is 2.8711 with a 0.52% increase; Y/M 09 is 2.7408 with a 0.61% increase; OI 1 - 5 is 484 yuan/ton with no change; OI 5 - 9 is 92 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan increase; OI 9 - 1 is - 576 yuan/ton with a 7 - yuan decrease; OI/RM 01 is 4.1498 with a 0.18% increase; OI/RM 05 is 4.1221 with a 1.3% increase; OI/RM 09 is 3.9513 with a 1.32% increase [5]. Meal Price and Spread Data - Meal prices: Bean meal 01 is at 2,937 with a - 30 decrease and - 1.01% decrease; Bean meal 05 is at 2,751 with an - 11 decrease and - 0.4% decrease; Bean meal 09 is at 2,858 with a - 12 decrease and - 0.42% decrease; Rapeseed meal 01 is at 2,405 with a - 39 decrease and - 1.6% decrease; Rapeseed meal 05 is at 2,327 with a - 16 decrease and - 0.68% decrease; Rapeseed meal 09 is at 2,407 with a - 14 decrease and - 0.58% decrease; CBOT yellow soybeans are at 1,012 with no change; The offshore RMB is at 7.1443 with a 0.0063 increase and 0.09% increase [17]. - Meal spreads: M01 - 05 is 205 with a 24 - yuan increase; M05 - 09 is - 108 with a - 1 decrease; M09 - 01 is - 97 with a - 23 decrease; RM01 - 05 is 101 with a 25 - yuan increase; RM05 - 09 is - 78 with a 1 - yuan increase; RM09 - 01 is - 23 with a - 26 decrease [18][20].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Different commodities in the energy - chemical industry have various trends. For example, some commodities like PX, PTA are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium - term; some are in a short - term or medium - term oscillatory pattern; and some show a downward or upward trend [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - Market Data: PX, PTA, and MEG had price increases on September 25. PX's price was up 5 dollars/ton, PTA increased by 65 yuan/ton, and MEG rose by 6 yuan/ton. PX's processing fee decreased by 8.38 dollars/ton, and PTA's processing fee dropped by 14.61 yuan/ton [5]. - Market Dynamics: PX's price was affected by oil prices and downstream demand. Some producers were worried about future weak demand. PTA's load was at 76.8%, and its开工 rate was around 82.7%. MEG's overall mainland China开工负荷 was 73.08%, with a decline of 1.85% [6][8][9]. - Views and Suggestions: PX is expected to have a short - term rebound but remain weak in the medium - term. PTA follows a similar pattern. For MEG, it's recommended to hold a reverse spread on the 1 - 5 month difference and go short on a single - side [11][12]. Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the rubber's day - session closing price was 15,570 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day, and the night - session closing price was 15,355 yuan/ton, down 335 yuan. The trading volume increased by 20,816 hands [14]. - Industry News: Typhoon disturbances in production areas were less than expected, and buying sentiment was average. Raw material prices were stable to weak, and the de - stocking of natural rubber inventory was less than expected [15][16]. - Trend: The rubber market is expected to be oscillatory and weak, with a trend strength of - 1 [13][14]. Synthetic Rubber - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the closing price of butadiene rubber's main contract was 11,545 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan. The trading volume was 83,685 hands, a decrease of 29,720 hands [18]. - Industry News: As of September 24, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises decreased by 0.14 million tons. The short - term commodity index was strong, and the synthetic rubber market was expected to enter an oscillatory pattern before the National Day [19][20]. - Trend: The synthetic rubber market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [20]. Asphalt - Fundamental Data: On September 26, BU2511's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton, up 1.42%. The refinery's开工 rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66%, and the refinery's inventory rate was 27.11%, up 0.37% [21]. - Market News: In the week of 20250919 - 20250925, the domestic asphalt's weekly output was 69.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 43.8%. As of September 25, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories increased by 0.9%, and the inventory of 104 social warehouses decreased by 1.8% [33]. - Trend: The asphalt market has a slow - moving shipment, and the spot is under pressure. Its trend strength is 0 [21][30]. LLDPE - Fundamental Data: On September 26, L2601's closing price was 7169 yuan/ton, up 0.43%. The 01 - contract basis was - 79 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 40 yuan [34]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PE market price slightly decreased. Supply increased due to some plants restarting and imported goods arriving. Demand from industries like agricultural film and hollow products slightly improved [34]. - Market Analysis: In the short - term, the commodity sentiment improved, leading to a rebound in PE. In the medium - term, it may be in an oscillatory range due to factors like demand improvement in the agricultural film industry and inventory pressure relief [35]. PP - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PP2601's closing price was 6898 yuan/ton, up 0.41%. The 01 - contract basis was - 198 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 43 yuan [39]. - Spot News: This week, the domestic PP market declined and then consolidated, with a price drop. Low - melt copolymer had a larger decline [40]. - Market Analysis: Short - term demand improved, but the cost was weak. It's recommended to be cautious when short - selling at a low level, and the medium - term may be an oscillatory market [40]. Caustic Soda - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 2537 yuan/ton, the cheapest deliverable 32 - caustic soda in Shandong was 780 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 100 yuan [43]. - Spot News: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda's weekly average price decreased by 3.73%, and 50 - caustic soda's weekly average price dropped by 2.28%. Low - degree caustic soda's inventory increased [44]. - Market Analysis: Shandong's 32 - caustic soda spot is under pressure, but there are optimistic expectations from future alumina production. The market may be in a wide - range oscillation [44][45]. Pulp - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the pulp's day - session closing price was 5060 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 52,784 hands, and the position decreased by 7473 hands [49]. - Industry News: From January to August 2025, pulp imports increased by 5.0%. Supply was abundant, and port inventory was high. Downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [50][51]. - Trend: The pulp market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [48]. Glass - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FG601's closing price was 1270 yuan/ton, up 3.08%. The 01 - contract basis was - 100 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 113 yuan [53]. - Spot News: On September 26, the domestic float glass market price mainly increased, and the market shipment accelerated [53]. - Trend: The glass's original - sheet price is stable, and its trend strength is 1 [52][54]. Methanol - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the methanol's closing price was 2356 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 109,826 hands, and the position decreased by 15,683 hands [56]. - Spot News: The port's methanol market was slightly weak, and the inland market declined. The port's inventory decreased but remained high [58]. - Trend: The methanol market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, with a trend strength of 0 [56][59]. Urea - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the urea's closing price was 1674 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 97,407 hands, and the position increased by 1736 hands [61]. - Industry News: On September 24, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises increased by 5.29 million tons. Before the National Day, the urea futures may enter an oscillatory pattern [62]. - Trend: The urea market is expected to be oscillatory before the National Day, with a trend strength of 0 [63]. Styrene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, styrene's 2511 contract price was 7152 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan. The non - integrated profit was - 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton [64]. - Spot News: The macro - sentiment was weak, and the downstream's restocking willingness was low. The port's inventory was expected to accumulate [65]. - Trend: The styrene market is expected to be bearish in the medium - term, with a trend strength of 0 [64]. Soda Ash - Fundamental Data: On September 26, SA2601's closing price was 1315 yuan/ton, up 1.15%. The 01 - contract basis was - 115 yuan, and the 01 - 05 contract spread was - 89 yuan [69]. - Spot News: The domestic soda ash market was weakly stable and oscillatory. Supply was high, and demand was for rigid needs. The inventory decreased [69]. - Trend: The soda ash's现货 market has little change, and its trend strength is - 1 [67][70]. LPG and Propylene - Fundamental Data: On September 26, PG2510's closing price was 4380 yuan/ton, up 1.27%. PL2601's closing price was 6372 yuan/ton, up 0.24%. The PDH开工率 was 69.5%, an increase from last week [72]. - Market News: On September 25, the price of 10 - month CP paper goods for propane decreased by 3 dollars/ton, and for butane also decreased by 3 dollars/ton [76]. - Trend: The LPG market is expected to be oscillatory in the short - term, and propylene is expected to be weak at a high level in the short - term. Both have a trend strength of 0 [72][75]. PVC - Fundamental Data: On September 26, the 01 - contract futures price was 4935 yuan/ton, the East China spot price was 4760 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 175 yuan [78]. - Spot News: The domestic PVC spot market was oscillatory. The supply increased, and the inventory accumulated. The market sentiment was dull [78]. - Market Analysis: The PVC market has a high - production and high - inventory structure, and the medium - term trend is under pressure [78]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fundamental Data: On September 26, FU2510's closing price was 2969 yuan/ton, up 1.64%. LU2510's closing price was 3366 yuan/ton, down 0.06%. The Singapore FOB price of high - sulfur fuel oil increased by 0.13%, and low - sulfur fuel oil increased by 1.70% [80]. - Trend: The fuel oil market is oscillatory at a high level and entering a short - term adjustment. The low - sulfur fuel oil has a strong upward movement, and the high - low sulfur spread in the overseas spot market rebounded strongly. Both have a trend strength of 0 [80]. Container Freight Index (European Line) - Fundamental Data: On September 26, EC2510's closing price was 1173.0, up 3.99%. The SCFIS for the European route was 1254.92 points, with a weekly decline of 12.9% [82]. - Trend: The container freight index (European line) is expected to be strong in the short - term [82].

2025 年 09 月 26 日 短纤：短期反弹，节前减仓 瓶片：短期反弹，节前减仓 贺晓勤 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0017709 hexiaoqin024367@gtjas.com 钱嘉寅（联系人） 从业资格号：F03124480 Qianjiayin028310@gtjas.com 短纤：直纺涤短期货跟随原料大幅上涨，现货方面工厂报价多维稳，成交部分优惠缩小。贸易商及期现 商优惠缩小，成交多有放量。下游节前备货积极。半光 1.4D 主流商谈重心在 6350~6550 区间。市场高低价 差缩小，工厂方面销售进一步好转，截止下午 3:00 附近，平均产销 78%，部分工厂产销：150%、80%、70%、 100%、30%、60%、200%、50%、100%，100%。 瓶片：上游聚酯原料期货继续上涨，聚酯瓶片工厂报价多上调 30-50 元不等。日内聚酯瓶片市场成交 气氛尚可。9-11 月订单多成交在 5770-5900 元/吨出厂不等，少量略低 5730 元/吨出厂附近，略高 5910-5950 元/吨出厂不等，品牌不同价格略有差异。华南一年产 110 万吨聚酯瓶片大厂因台风短停装置据悉在逐步重 启中，预计周 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core View - The asphalt market shows signs of slow shipment and pressured spot prices. The production has increased, while the inventory situation varies by region, with some areas experiencing inventory accumulation and others seeing inventory reduction [15]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: For BU2511, the yesterday's closing price was 3,440 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.42%, and the overnight closing price remained unchanged. The trading volume was 175,377 lots with an increase of 22,435 lots, and the open interest was 197,649 lots with a decrease of 19,248 lots. For BU2512, the yesterday's closing price was 3,385 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 1.44%, and the overnight closing price was 3,386 yuan/ton with an increase of 0.03%. The trading volume was 53,804 lots with an increase of 2,649 lots, and the open interest was 88,522 lots with a decrease of 1,800 lots [1]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The total warehouse receipts in the asphalt market were 55,980 lots with no change [1]. - **Spreads**: The basis (Shandong - 11) was 60 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan compared to the previous day. The 11 - 12 inter - period spread was 55 yuan/ton with no change. The Shandong - South China spread was 0 with no change, and the East China - South China spread was 60 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - **Spot Market**: The Shandong wholesale price was 3,500 yuan/ton with no change, and the Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,560 yuan/ton with no change. The refinery operating rate was 49.88%, an increase of 2.66% compared to the previous data. The refinery inventory rate was 27.11%, an increase of 0.37% [1]. Trend Strength - The asphalt trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral view. The trend strength ranges from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [10]. Market Information - **Production**: From September 19 - 25, 2025, the weekly total domestic asphalt production was 699,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 12,000 tons (1.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 213,000 tons (43.8%). The cumulative production from January to September was 2.3536 billion tons, a year - on - year increase of 271.1 million tons (13.0%) [15]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, 2025, the total inventory of 54 asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 704,000 tons, a 0.9% increase from September 22. The inventory in South China increased significantly due to typhoon - affected shipments and stagnant downstream demand. The total inventory of 104 social warehouses was 1.541 million tons, a 1.8% decrease from September 22. The social inventory in East China decreased significantly due to low inbound volume, pre - holiday stocking demand, and low prices [15].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On September 25, the silicon iron 2511 contract was reported at 5786, up 0.94%. The market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. - On September 25, the manganese - silicon 2601 contract was reported at 5938, up 0.47%. The market is expected to move in a range, and investors should pay attention to risk control [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - SM main - contract closing price: 5938 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan; SF main - contract closing price: 5786 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan [2]. - SM futures contract positions: 529,129 hands, down 9301 hands; SF futures contract positions: 369,202 hands, down 1439 hands [2]. - Manganese - silicon top 20 net positions: - 70,716 hands, down 823 hands; Silicon - iron top 20 net positions: - 33,704 hands, down 999 hands [2]. - SM 5 - 1 month contract spread: 42 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan; SF 5 - 1 month contract spread: 102 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [2]. - SM warehouse receipts: 59,475 sheets, down 539 sheets; SF warehouse receipts: 17,710 sheets, down 69 sheets [2]. 2. Spot Market - Inner Mongolia manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5740 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; Inner Mongolia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5560 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Guizhou manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5750 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; Qinghai silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5370 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Yunnan manganese - silicon FeMn68Si18: 5680 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; Ningxia silicon - iron FeSi75 - B: 5480 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon index average: 5717 yuan/ton, up 59 yuan; SF main - contract basis: - 306 yuan/ton, down 44 yuan [2]. - SM main - contract basis: - 198 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan [2]. 3. Upstream Situation - South African ore (Mn38 block, Tianjin Port): 24 yuan/ton - degree, unchanged; Silica (98%, Northwest): 210 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Inner Mongolia Wuhai secondary metallurgical coke: 1100 yuan/ton, unchanged; Semi - coke (medium material, Shenmu): 760 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan [2]. - Manganese ore port inventory: 452.5 tons, unchanged [2]. 4. Industry Situation - Manganese - silicon enterprise operating rate: 45.68%, down 1.7%; Silicon - iron enterprise operating rate: 34.84%, unchanged [2]. - Manganese - silicon supply: 208,775 tons, down 5355 tons; Silicon - iron supply: 113,100 tons, up 100 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon manufacturer inventory: 198,900 tons, up 32,100 tons; Silicon - iron manufacturer inventory: 63,390 tons, down 6550 tons [2]. - Manganese - silicon national steel mill inventory (in days): 14.98, up 0.74; Silicon - iron national steel mill inventory (in days): 14.67, up 0.42 [2]. 5. Downstream Situation - Five major steel types' manganese - silicon demand: 121,426 tons, down 888 tons; Five major steel types' silicon - iron demand: 19,588.6 tons, down 148.8 tons [2]. - 247 steel mills' blast furnace operating rate: 84%, up 0.15%; 247 steel mills' blast furnace capacity utilization rate: 90.38%, up 0.18% [2]. - Crude steel output: 7736.86 tons, down 228.96 tons [2]. 6. Industry News - On September 24, the US announced to lower the tariff on EU - imported cars to 15%, effective August 1 [2]. - On September 23, 190 mining companies in Indonesia were punished and ordered to suspend operations for up to 60 days [2]. - Multiple departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology issued a notice on the steady - growth work plan for the building materials industry from 2025 - 2026, proposing strict control of cement and glass production capacity [2]. - World Steel Association data showed that global crude steel output in August was 145.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.3%, and from January to August, it decreased by 1.7% year - on - year [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On September 24, the manganese silicon futures showed a volatile upward trend. Fundamentally, the recovery of hot metal production drives demand, and the relatively stable cost of manganese ore provides support. However, the pre - holiday risk - aversion sentiment of funds suppresses the market volatility. Technically, the price is in a low - level volatile range, with balanced long and short forces. In the short term, it may continue to consolidate in the range of 5850 - 5950 yuan/ton. In the long term, attention should be paid to the changes in the supply - demand pattern after the peak season and the risk of cost reduction [13]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon SM2601 contract showed a volatile downward trend. The daily session opened at 5890 yuan/ton, with a high of 5948 yuan/ton, a low of 5868 yuan/ton, and a closing price of 5916 yuan/ton, up 26 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the day was 169,412 lots, and the open interest was 333,773 lots [2]. - **Variety Price**: The 12 futures contracts showed a normal market pattern with lower near - term and higher far - term prices. The open interest of the variety was 529,129 lots, a decrease of 9,301 lots from the previous trading day. The open interest of the active contract manganese silicon SM2601 decreased by 1,401 lots [2]. - **Related Market**: On September 24, the manganese silicon options market fluctuated greatly. The open interest of call options for the main contract of manganese silicon was 27,387 contracts, and the open interest of put options was 22,849 contracts, with a PCR of 0.834 [5]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Basis Data**: On September 24, the basis of the active contract manganese silicon 2601 was - 66 yuan/ton, which widened compared with the previous day, mainly because the increase in the spot price on that day was less than that of the futures price [7]. - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: On September 24, the total number of registered warehouse receipts for manganese silicon was 60,014, an increase of 517 from the previous trading day [8]. 3.3 Influencing Factors - **Industry Information**: In the Ningxia region, the overall start - up is stable, with only a few producers reducing production due to profit factors. The pre - holiday manganese ore stocking has basically ended. Some manufacturers have slightly higher inventory but still within the normal range, while most are in the order - delivery stage with low inventory. A ferrosilicon furnace in this region plans to switch to high - silicon product production this week. In the Inner Mongolia region, the manganese silicon production is running smoothly, and the started enterprises are basically operating at full capacity. In the spot market, the inventory remains low, and the current order schedule extends to mid - October. The manganese silicon production in the southern region is showing a recovery trend, with some factories restarting two ore - heating furnaces and planning to gradually increase production to full capacity [9][10]. - **Technical Analysis**: On September 24, the main contract 2601 of manganese silicon closed with a positive line. The 5 - day moving average and the 10 - day moving average were intertwined, indicating a balance between long and short forces without a clear trend. The intraday price failed to break through the resistance level of 5950 yuan/ton and closed at 5916 yuan/ton. The support level below can be focused on around 5800 yuan/ton. There are still differences in the market, and a breakthrough signal is needed to confirm the direction [11].

期 货 研 究 2025 年 09 月 25 日 铝：震荡偏强 氧化铝：区间震荡 铸造铝合金：强于电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 期货研究 【综合快讯】 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | T | | | | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 20705 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | | | 20 | -205 | 105 | 455 | | | | | | | 20805 | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | | | ー | l | l | l | | | | | | | 2655 | LME铝3M收盘价 | | | ರ | -32 | ୧୧ | 138 | | | | | | | 107916 | 沪 ...

【市场状况分析】 烧碱山东 32 碱现货仍承压，但未来氧化铝投产带来的乐观预期短期又无法证伪。近期 50 碱反而因区 域套利，价格出现上涨，50 碱-32 碱价差扩张，厂家 50 碱库存压力大幅缓解，50 碱的支撑会导致现货短期 进一步下跌空间或有限。 从氧化铝方面看，氧化铝高产量、高库存格局，使得利润被持续压缩，边际产能供应未来可能受利润影 响。虽然广西地区年底到明年年初存在 560 万吨新增产能的备货需求，后期氧化铝备货将带动国内 50 碱货 源流转，但低利润的格局也可能使得其他氧化铝厂的备货水平下滑。在囤货未开启前，市场也难以判断囤货 带来的缺口，因此盘面仍在交易弱现实。 整体看，当前烧碱盘面前期交易山东 32 碱现货压力。氧化铝未开始投产前的备货，出口方面相比前期 略有改善，山东-华南区域套利也支撑 50 碱市场，多空预期交织短期无法证伪，因此市场或呈现宽幅震荡。 期货研究 烧碱：弱现实压制，但预期不悲观 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 ...

续，全球原油中长期供强于需预期给到油价一定压力，只是短期地缘局势仍有不确定性。EB2511日度运行 免责声明 区间预计在6800-6920附近。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 环比 | 最新 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | -58 期货成交量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 期货收盘价(活跃合约):苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 6870 | | 234360 | -19113 | | | 手) 前20名持仓:买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 13828 11月合约收盘价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) | 418956 | | 6870 | -58 | | | 期货持仓量(活跃:成交量):苯乙烯(EB)(日, 21306 前20名持仓:净买单量:苯乙烯(日,手) | | | | | | | | 400920 | | -29445 | 3707 | | 手) | 前20名持仓:卖单量:苯乙烯(日,手) 10121 仓单数量:苯乙烯:总计(日,手) 现货价:苯乙烯(日,元/吨) -136 苯乙烯:FOB韩国:中间价(日,美元/吨) ...