1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term weak reality suppresses the upward momentum of oils and fats. The market is in wide - range volatile operation, waiting for the US energy policy to boost the market and further news on Indonesia's B50. Due to the lack of trend drivers, short - term trading is recommended. The P05 contract may find support around 8300 yuan/ton. As the pressure in palm oil - producing areas gradually weakens, its cost - effectiveness increases, and we should wait for future improvement opportunities [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil - producing areas. In November, Malaysian palm oil production decreased slightly, but the inventory reached the highest level in 6 years. The uncertainty of Indonesia's B50 plan persists, and there is a lack of upward momentum in quotes [1]. - The US biodiesel policy remains unclear. The final determination of US biofuel obligations, originally scheduled to be announced in November by the EPA, has been postponed, and the role of future policies in boosting the market is questionable [1]. - There is no positive trend in China - Canada talks, and there is an expectation of tight supply of rapeseed products in the future [1]. - Although the inventory of three major domestic oils and fats has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Rapeseed oil continues to reduce inventory, with relatively limited pressure [1]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Short - term wide - range volatile adjustment, with the possibility of the price center rising in the medium term [16]. - **Price Range**: The P2605 fluctuates in the range of 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton, Y2605 in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, and OI2605 in the range of 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton [16]. - **Technical Analysis**: Adopt a short - term weak unilateral thinking. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads [16]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedge Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: The current basis is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term. The rapeseed - palm and soybean - palm spreads are expected to weaken [17]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price of soybean oil is forecasted to be in the range of 7800 - 8150 yuan/ton, rapeseed oil 9000 - 9500 yuan/ton, and palm oil 8300 - 8800 yuan/ton [19][21]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Different hedging strategies are recommended for traders, refineries, and oil mills according to their inventory and procurement situations [21]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices and price changes of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in both futures and spot markets, as well as various spreads [22][23]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 12, the domestic commercial inventory of soybean oil was 1140,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and up 180,000 tons year - on - year; rapeseed oil was 340,000 tons, down 20,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons month - on - month, and down 80,000 tons year - on - year; palm oil was 650,000 tons, down 30,000 tons week - on - week, 10,000 tons month - on - month, and up 110,000 tons year - on - year [24]. - **Negative Information**: The US EPA is expected to issue the final rule on the renewable fuel standard in the first quarter of 2026. The palm oil export volume of Malaysia from December 1 - 15 decreased compared with the same period last month [25]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil and fat transactions have been stable, with soybean oil transactions increasing month - on - month, and rapeseed oil and palm oil transactions decreasing slightly month - on - month [26]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data, Malaysian palm oil high - frequency production and export data, progress on the re - allocation decision of US small refinery exemptions, progress in China - Canada trade negotiations, and weather information in producing areas [28][29]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The overall oil and fat market was weak this week. There was a lack of upward driving force, and the US biodiesel policy was postponed again. The demand in the global oil and fat market was in doubt. The capital trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were all bearish [30]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil and fat contracts continued to be weak this week [32]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil and fat market showed a near - strong and far - weak Back structure, which became shallower this week [32]. - **Spread Structure**: The spreads of soybean - palm, rapeseed - soybean, and rapeseed - palm all rebounded slightly this week [52]. 3.3.2 Overseas Market - The overseas market was weakly volatile this week. There was a lack of positive factors, and the MPOB report on palm oil was bearish. The US energy policy guidance was unclear, and the CBOT soybean oil management fund's position decreased slightly [54]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The POGO spread rebounded slightly this week, and the cost of producing biofuel from palm oil increased slightly. The BOHO spread also rebounded slightly, but the cost of producing biodiesel from US soybean oil remained at a recent low [60]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - China is a net importer of palm oil. Recently, the import profit has changed slightly, and domestic buying has started after the basis turned positive [62]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Deduction of the Supply - Demand Balance Sheet in Producing Areas - In November, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased month - on - month, but the inventory exceeded expectations, and the supply pressure was not alleviated [64]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: With the basis turning positive, domestic buyers have started to place orders, but the transactions are difficult to improve in the off - season. In the year - end production - reduction stage in producing areas, the willingness to sell is limited, and domestic orders are not expected to increase [66]. - **Soybean Oil**: The arrival of raw materials in December will decline, and the crushing volume may decrease, but the overall supply is still relatively loose [66]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed has arrived, the quantity is limited. The inventory will continue to decrease. If the China - Canada relationship cannot be eased, the future supply will still be tight [66]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The short - term inventory of the three major oils and fats is relatively high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. Although the fourth quarter is the traditional consumption peak season for oils and fats, the overall terminal demand remains weak [68].

2025 年 12 月 15 日 事件驱动 踏"浪"而行 ---2026 年菜系期货行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：全球菜籽供应宽松，国内菜系商品注意供应增加风险，菜系商品偏空配 我们的逻辑： 2025/26 年度全球菜籽产量同比大幅回升，全球菜籽供应预计将转为宽松。主要出口国的菜籽期初库存较低，但 是 2025/26 年度的菜籽产量创历史新高，预计全球菜系商品的供应压力将在 2026 年逐渐体现。在欧盟菜籽产量大幅 恢复、中加经贸关系不明朗、美国生柴政策不确定的情况下，全球菜系商品的进口需求目前看不乐观，将加剧加拿大 的出口压力，注意国际菜籽价格的下行风险。 2026年中国的菜系商品的供应受政策影响存在不确定性，注意关键时间节点、注意重大事件发生后的行情驱动。 在国内停止进口加拿大菜籽、菜粕和菜油后，国内菜系商品的供应收紧预期已经交易比较充分，由于性价比偏差，国 内菜油和菜粕的消费已经降至较低水平。在全球菜籽产量创纪录，主要出口国有出口压力的背景下，需要防范后续国 内菜籽、菜油、菜粕进口增加的风险。 风险提示：政策风险，天气风险 请 ...

2025 年 12 月 15 日 内外政策与南北美产地博弈加剧 ---2026 年美豆期货分析展望 报告导读： 从新周期的定价框架来看，全球大豆价格的驱动逻辑已从"单一主产种植利润主导"转向"多极因 子协同共振"，核心驱动维度呈现三大转变：一是供给端从"美豆单一供给"转向"全球主产区产能互 补"，南美天气扰动、美豆种植进度、中美大豆贸易流量等多区域供需变量形成联动；二是流通端从 "CBOT 定价"转向"区域分化"，巴西物流效率、巴拿马运河通行成本、各国贸易关税政策等成为价格 区域传导的关键变量；三是需求端从"饲用需求单一拉动"转向"多场景需求分化"，生物柴油政策驱动 的工业需求、饲用消费的区域结构变化、高蛋白大豆的定制化需求等，赋予价格更强的结构性波动特 征。在此框架下，美豆已从全球大豆价格的"制定者"退化为"参与者"，其国内供需仅为全球多因子体 系中的重要变量而非决定性因素。 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 谢义钦 从业资格号：Z0017082 xieyiqin@gtht.com | 1. 2025 ...

豆类市场2026年年报 豆类：云涛暗涌千帆竞 仓廪星移四季风 ——2025年豆类市场回顾与2026年展望 方正中期期货研究院 农产品团队 王亮亮 Z0017427 摘要： 国际市场来看，2025/26 年度，新季美豆播种面积同比大幅下调，按照美豆优良 率与生长季天气来看，1 月继续下调单产的可能性较高，我们预计新季美豆产量或同 比下降 300-500 万吨左右。美国大豆需求主要是压榨与出口消费。近年来美豆压榨 消费表现强劲，后续主要变数在于其生柴政策的调整，而生柴政策的调整很大程度 上受国际柴油价格与大豆出口情况影响。受美国贸易保护主义影响，我国进一步加 强了巴西大豆的进口、弱化了美国大豆的进口。2025 年四季度，中美元首会晤使得 中美贸易关系似乎有所缓和，但对美豆仍然保留了 10%的加征关税，商业进口利润 依旧为深度负值，这也限制了市场层面对于美豆的采购量，意味着中美贸易关系虽 有缓和但仍严峻，我国能否持续对美豆采购直接影响着CBOT大豆期价的上行高度。 总体而言，受新季美豆产量同比下降与成本端的支撑，CBOT 大豆下方空间预计不大， 支撑位或许在 1000-1050 美分/蒲。如果美豆对华出口顺利，那么 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 本报告完成时间 | 2025年12月14日 重要提示：本报告观点和信息仅供符合证监会适当性管理规定的期货交易者参考。因本平台暂时无法设 置访问限制，若您并非符合规定的交易者，为控制交易风险，请勿点击查看或使用本报告任何信息。对 由此给您造成的不便表示诚挚歉意，感谢您的理解与配合！ 2025年国内油脂走势一波三折，品种间走势分化明显。在产量及生柴题材驱动下，棕榈油引领了多数时 间的油脂涨跌；豆油以稳为主，涨跌均不显眼；菜油则在进口大幅收紧的背景下走势偏强势且独立。 尽管当前油脂整体表现不佳，我们仍对其2026年走势持乐观态度。结合当前时点及潜在交易题材，油脂 市场或正临近转折点，市场分歧最大的棕榈油预计仍是关键所在。近期市场对马棕大幅增产的恐慌打压 棕榈油连破支撑，但可能将面临市场预期的再度反转。2025年东南亚棕榈油超预期的增产面临天时地利 人和，在前期降雨不佳、树龄趋于老化、印尼大量罚没种植园的背景下，恐难在2026年复刻。 生物柴油需求增长则是另一潜在驱动。美国生物柴油政 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 25/26 period, most oils are expected to increase in production. However, in 2025, the production and consumption growth rates of major biodiesel - producing countries globally slowed down, and the demand growth rates of various raw materials declined, except for palm oil, which maintained a relatively high growth rate. The market is still waiting for the US to announce the compliance obligation volumes for 2026 and 2027 and Indonesia's biodiesel policy. The low price of US crude oil limits the imagination space for biodiesel demand, unless the government is willing to provide substantial subsidies [207]. - Due to previous improvements in rainfall and fertilizers, as well as an increase in labor, Malaysia's production exceeded expectations this year, and Indonesia also had a significant increase in production, resulting in a divergence between expectations and reality. Although the replanting rate of oil palms is at a low level, it has improved compared to the low point in early 2020, but it started to decline in December 2021. After 2021, the use of fertilizer raw materials in Malaysia and Indonesia decreased rapidly, and considering the lagged impact of weather, the production performance in the next few months may not be as good as before [207]. - Currently, the soybean crushing profit in Argentina is relatively low, and the global new - crop sunflower oil production is lower than expected. Palm oil has cost - effectiveness, but Brazil has not decided whether to implement the B16 biodiesel policy at the beginning of 2026. Under the overall expectation of a bumper harvest in South America, the price of far - month South American soybean oil is low [207]. - Different from the downward adjustment of global sunflower seed and sunflower oil production, the global rapeseed production is gradually increasing. As Australian and Canadian rapeseed purchases are restricted, short - selling rapeseed in the domestic market may not be smooth. The impact is more likely to be indirectly transmitted to the domestic market through rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal from Dubai and Russia. However, opportunities to narrow the price spread at high levels should be noted [207]. - Before there is stronger positive news for biodiesel, the price advantage will still support the palm oil price. But if there is no speculation on the supply side and no expectation of inventory reduction, the price rebound will be limited [207]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Price Movements**: The prices of domestic three major oils and US crude oil fluctuated in 2025. There were several rounds of price drops and rebounds. Drops were mainly due to factors such as the delay in Indonesia's biodiesel policy, unclear US biodiesel policy, increased South American soybean production, higher - than - expected imports of rapeseed oil and rapeseed, and official clarifications on non - restriction of palm oil exports. Rebounds were caused by factors like floods in palm oil - producing areas, rebounds in US and Brazilian soybean premiums, insufficient near - month imports of soybeans, expected pre - Ramadan purchases in India, and rumors of Indonesia's palm oil export ban [4]. 3.2 25/26 Global Oilseeds Situation - **Production and Export**: The total global oilseed production in the 25/26 period was gradually adjusted downward, with significant decreases in soybean and sunflower seed production, but significant increases in rapeseed and cottonseed production. The total export volume changed little, with significant increases in soybean and sunflower seed exports and a decrease in rapeseed exports [5]. - **Consumption and Stock - to - Use Ratio**: Global oilseed crushing was slightly adjusted downward, with a significant increase in rapeseed crushing but decreases in soybean and sunflower seed crushing. The stock - to - use ratio of rapeseed increased significantly, while those of soybeans and sunflowers decreased slightly [12][17]. 3.3 25/26 Global Oils Situation - **Production and Export**: The total global oil production in the 25/26 period was adjusted slightly. Rapeseed oil production was increased significantly, while soybean oil and sunflower oil production were decreased significantly. Rapeseed oil exports increased significantly, palm oil exports changed little, and soybean oil and sunflower oil exports decreased significantly [19]. - **Consumption**: The total global oil consumption decreased slightly. The consumption of soybean oil and rapeseed oil increased significantly, while that of sunflower oil decreased significantly [21]. - **Stock - to - Use Ratio**: The stock - to - use ratios of different oils showed different trends [30]. 3.4 Rapeseed Situation - **International Rapeseed Price and Spread**: The price of Canadian rapeseed was weak [32]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: In the 25/26 period, Canadian rapeseed production increased by 789,000 tons. Exports were expected to increase by nearly 400,000 tons, and the ending inventory would rise from 1.597 million tons to 2.5 million tons. The export was slow, domestic consumption was high, and the commercial inventory was close to that of the previous year [38][40][42][45]. - **EU Rapeseed**: In the EU's November agricultural crop announcement for the 24/25 period, the rapeseed yield was adjusted upward to 3.34 tons per hectare, the planting area remained unchanged, and the production was adjusted upward to 2.0206 million tons. Rapeseed imports were high, exports increased, and the monthly crushing volume decreased [51][53][55][57]. - **Other Regions**: Australian new - crop rapeseed production was increased, Ukrainian rapeseed exports decreased, and Russian rapeseed production increased [61][66][71]. 3.5 Palm Oil Situation - **Malaysia**: In October, Malaysia's palm oil production increased more than expected, with a 11.02% month - on - month increase to 2.04 million tons. The export situation was complex, with a decrease in exports to India during the festival. As of the end of November, the inventory was expected to continue to increase [92][96][102]. - **Indonesia**: In September, Indonesia's palm oil production decreased significantly, and exports decreased due to the increase in export tariffs. The inventory remained basically stable at the end of September [121][128]. 3.6 Soybean Oil Situation - **North and South America**: The export of soybean oil in North and South America slowed down. Argentina's soybean oil export slowed, and Brazil's soybean oil export also decreased [132][134][141]. 3.7 Sunflower Oil Situation - **European Sunflower Seeds**: The production of European sunflower seeds was adjusted downward [151]. - **Ukraine**: Ukraine's sunflower oil exports were at a low level, with a decrease in exports to India and an increase in exports to the EU [158]. - **Other Regions**: Russia's sunflower oil export slowed, and Argentina's sunflower oil exports to India increased. The total sunflower seed production of four countries (Argentina, Ukraine, Russia, and the EU) increased [160][163][170]. 3.8 Biodiesel Situation - **Indonesia**: The distribution of biodiesel in Indonesia was slow, and as of November 10, the biodiesel distribution volume reached 12.25 billion liters, while the annual target was 15.6 billion liters [172][173]. - **EU**: The EU's imports of Malaysian POME, UCO, and UCOME increased, and the import of UCO was at a high level. The export of UCOME to the US decreased significantly, and the import of Chinese UCO remained at a high level [174][177][179][181][183]. - **US**: The proportion of soybean oil in US biodiesel feedstock generally rebounded, but the biodiesel production was lower than that of the previous year [185][187]. - **Brazil**: The consumption of soybean oil in Brazilian biodiesel was at a high level, and the growth rate of biodiesel raw material consumption slowed down in 2025 [195][197].

陈晨（投资咨询资格证号：Z0022868） 联系邮箱：nhchenchen@nawaa.com 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月09日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期油脂市场趋势性利多不足，核心驱动依然在外盘市场，当前油脂的核心矛盾主要为以下几点： 南华期货油脂产业周报 ——油脂区间震荡为主，等待报告指引 3、中加和谈依然没有向好趋势，菜系后市供应依然有偏紧预期，关注进一步信息。 4、国内三大油脂总体供应依然充足，短期仍有压力，其中菜油维持去库，豆棕油库存压力仍较大。 综上，短期弱现实压制油脂上行动力，盘面宽幅震荡运行，等待最终美国能源政策是否提振油脂市场， 及印尼B50进一步消息。策略上因趋势线驱动不足，短线对待为主，由于棕榈油即将进入减产季，叠加明年东 南亚地区斋月提前，远月P05合约在8300元/吨附近位置或有支撑；棕榈油产地压力逐渐减弱后性价比提升， 菜棕、豆棕价差或缩窄。 马来西亚棕榈油精炼olein现货FOB季节性 source： 路透,南华研究 美元/吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 03/01 05/01 07/01 0 ...

2025-12-08 产业服务总部 饲料养殖中心 全球植物油：供应端，USDA11 月预估 25/26 年度全球植物油增产放慢，其中 菜油增产幅度最大而棕油增产最小。需求端，各国生物柴油政策发力，在增强油脂 国内消费的同时缩紧了油脂出口，不过总需求依然同比增长。需求增幅大于供应增 幅，25/26 年度全球植物油期末库存及库销比均同比下降，供需继续收紧，对植物油 价格有支撑。后续全球油脂市场的不确定性将主要集中于南美大豆/印尼棕油产量和 各国生物柴油政策上，可能造成价格剧烈波动：一是 25/26 年度美豆及南美豆因为 天气炒作，印尼棕油因为种植园强征等原因导致产量下降，收紧供应。二是美国和 印尼利多植物油生柴需求的生柴政策能否成功落地。 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询 业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 研究员 棕油：供应端，目前市场对 2026 年东南亚棕油产量预估较为乐观，印尼两国均 同比增产。需求端，印度人口增长带来的刚性需求与印尼 B40 计划支撑，2025 年 产地棕油出口及国内消费有望维持强劲。供需双强下，25/26 年度印马库存预计都 同比下滑，马来库存历史中位，印尼库存则是更紧张的历史低位。 ...

关注美国生物柴油政策 近期，市场担忧洪水影响马来西亚及印尼棕榈油产量，美国环保局澄清2026年及2027年生物柴油合规义务量 下降的传闻，棕榈油价格出现反弹。在印度2026年斋月前，棕榈油仍然具有价格优势。尽管需求端支撑棕榈 油价格反弹，但是持续上涨还需要生物柴油及减产周期表现配合。 上半年，机构预估今年马来西亚棕榈油产量为1950万吨，略高于2024年的1934万吨。然而，从6月开始，马来 西亚棕榈油产量持续维持较高增速，进入减产周期的10月也保持增长，市场预估今年马来西亚棕榈油产量有 望突破2000万吨。另外，马来西亚棕榈油局（MPOB）10月报告显示，马来西亚棕榈油累库超预期。进入11 月，马来西亚棕榈油出口降幅不断扩大，印度和中国等国采购放缓。印尼能矿部公布的数据显示，截至11月 初，年内印尼生物柴油累计分销量为122.5亿升，而2025年全年目标为156亿升，如果保持当前分销速度，全年 目标将难以完成。 9月，印尼棕榈油产量环比下降22.45%，至429.8万吨，受9月工作日天数少的因素影响；1—9月，累计产量同 比增加440万吨。9月，印尼上调出口关税接近80美元/吨，导致当月棕榈油出口量环比下降 ...

期货研究报告 2025年12月01日 棕榈油期货：震荡偏强 高剑飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0014742 gaojianfei@nzfco.com 报告导读： 1、市场回顾与展望：上周棕榈油期价触底反弹。周初美国生柴政策扰动频繁，且临近移仓换月期间， 盘面波动较大。连棕屡破前低，领跌油脂板块。而且产地基本面依旧维持弱势，马来西亚棕榈油出口环比大 幅下滑，11月累库概率较大，施压近月期价，一度跌破4000令吉/吨关口。且国内棕榈油持续大量到港，棕 榈油继续累库。不过进口利润倒挂加深，暂无新增买船。另外，由于盘面跌势猛，豆棕价差进一步修复，需 求显著提振，国内现货基差快速上涨，贸易商及油厂挺价意愿强。而后MPOA及SPPOMA产量数据相继发布，增 产幅度大幅下滑，叠加近期产地进入雨季，洪涝灾害频发，市场预期正式进入减产周期，叠加欧洲议会支持 将《欧盟零毁林法案》实施推迟一年，期价大幅上涨。 短期随着01合约持仓快速减少，1-5价差倒挂或将进一步修复，短期预计棕榈油震荡偏强运行为主。操 作上建议：低位做多。 关注因素：1.马来西亚棕榈油产量及出口数据；2.豆棕价差修复变化；3.生物柴油政策等。 | | | | 棕榈 ...