1. Report Information - Reported industry: Soybean meal [1] - Date: February 5, 2026 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including researchers Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] 2. Market Review - **Soybean meal futures contracts**: - For the soybean meal 2603 contract, the previous settlement price was 3047, the opening price was 3050, the highest price was 3053, the lowest price was 2973, the closing price was 3002, with a decline of 45 and a decrease rate of 1.48%. The trading volume was 181,273, the open interest was 287,070, and the open interest change was -71,019 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2605 contract, the previous settlement price was 2756, the opening price was 2756, the highest price was 2759, the lowest price was 2721, the closing price was 2727, with a decline of 29 and a decrease rate of 1.05%. The trading volume was 1,085,590, the open interest was 2,153,812, and the open interest change was 64,761 [6]. - For the soybean meal 2607 contract, the previous settlement price was 2704, the opening price was 2703, the highest price was 2709, the lowest price was 2686, the closing price was 2691, with a decline of 13 and a decrease rate of 0.48%. The trading volume was 44,976, the open interest was 484,107, and the open interest change was 10,962 [6]. 3. Core Views - **External market (US soybeans)**: The US soybean futures contracts were weak, with the main contract close to 1055 cents. There was a rebound in the previous period due to the digestion of negative factors. Although the January USDA report raised the ending stocks of the new US soybean season, the price was already significantly below the US soybean planting cost, so the downside was relatively limited. The weekly US soybean export data was good for two consecutive weeks, and there were relatively positive expectations for biodiesel policies, leading to a small - scale rebound. However, fundamentally, due to the basically determined high - yield pattern of Brazilian soybeans, the subsequent supply pressure would always put downward pressure on the market. If US soybean exports weakened or the weather in Argentina improved, the external market might continue to fall below 1050 cents [7]. - **Domestic soybean meal**: The 05 and subsequent contracts were priced based on the external market cost. Since there was a lack of potential positive factors in the CBOT, the overall trend was range - bound, and the rebound was slightly bearish. The risk was that if the subsequent auction of imported soybeans fell short of expectations, it might drive the spot price to rise unexpectedly, which could have a small positive impact on the 05 contract [7]. 4. Industry News - The US Treasury Department issued the 45Z proposed rules on Tuesday to regulate how biofuel producers can obtain a $1 - per - gallon tax credit for low - carbon fuels (including aviation fuels), providing more certainty for producers of ethanol, biodiesel, and other products seeking tax credits. However, analysts pointed out that there were still some unresolved issues in the regulations [10]. - The USDA's monthly soybean crushing data showed that the US soybean crushing volume in December reached the second - highest level in history. The December crushing volume was 229.9 million bushels (equivalent to 6.896 million short tons), a 4.2% increase from November's 220.5 million bushels and a 5.6% increase from December 2024's 217.7 million bushels. The December crushing volume was the second - highest monthly crushing volume, second only to the 236.3 million bushels in October 2025 [10]. - Crop experts estimated the 2025/26 Argentine soybean production at 48 million tons, lower than the previous week's forecast of 49 million tons and the USDA's current estimate of 48.5 million tons. The southern planting area in Argentina has recently become drier, with insufficient rainfall for most of the next few weeks, which requires close attention. The expected 2025/26 Brazilian soybean production remained unchanged at a record 179 million tons, with a tendency to maintain or increase the forecast in the future [10][11]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2026-2-5 天胶反弹，其它偏震荡 逻辑：昨日商品情绪演继续回暖，天胶同样跟随小幅走高，整体依旧维持 多头趋势。前期的上涨主要是宏观氛围驱动，并无基本面变化，所以昨日 回落也不存在基本面的变化。目前来看近一个月运行区间上移，前期压力 位成为支撑位。当前交易逻辑我们认为或维持宏观影响为主。当前胶价基 本面相对偏弱，但预期尚可，所以也存在提前于基本面发生边际变化前开 始上涨的可能。目前基本面具体来说，海外供应季节性上量相对顺利，上 游供应目前仍相对充裕。而需求端来看，节前轮胎企业逢低采购，虽对现 货形成一定支撑，但总体并未出现大批量集中补库的情况。而当前最明面 的利空为较快的累库。但在资金炒作预期的背景下，盘面暂时易涨难跌。 展望：基本面变量有限，但当前资金关注度继续上升，盘面维持震荡。 风险因素：宏观对商品超预期的扰动，天气。 农业团队 油脂：⽣柴税收抵免政策发布，油脂⼩幅反弹 蛋⽩粕：购销清淡，双粕延续震荡 ⽟⽶/淀粉：购销逐步清淡，期现窄幅震荡 ⽣猪：供需宽松，现货回调 天然橡㬵：多头情绪延续 合成橡㬵：⾼位震荡 棉花：节前窄幅 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current soybean meal market is in a game between "strong expectations" and "weak realities." The trading logic of the external market revolves around the performance of US soybean exports and the supply pressure from South America. Short - term price premiums caused by weather disturbances in South America lead to market fluctuations. In the medium to long term, attention should be paid to changes in Sino - US trade policies and the implementation of biodiesel policies. However, the overall tone of loose global supply still suppresses the global soybean price center, with limited upside potential for prices. In China, supply is expected to be tight in the first quarter, but the pattern of strong supply and weak demand will remain after the arrival of new South American soybeans. Currently, downstream buyers are building positions in far - month contracts due to suitable soybean meal prices, resulting in high trading volumes in far - month contracts. However, spot trading volumes have not increased significantly during the Spring Festival stocking period, falling short of market expectations. The price center of soybean meal is oscillating downward, and cautious operation is recommended. [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cost End - **US Soybeans**: In January, China completed the procurement plan of 12 million tons of US soybeans ahead of schedule, which was mainly a policy - based purchase by COFCO and Sinograin. The market doubts the subsequent sales of US soybean orders. As of the week ending January 22, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the 2025/26 season was 819,000 tons, a 67% decrease from the previous week, a 50% decrease from the four - week average, and the lowest in 10 weeks. With the upcoming listing of South American soybeans, which are more price - attractive to Chinese buyers, there is little motivation for Chinese buyers to continue purchasing US soybeans. The implementation of the US biodiesel policy has become the focus of the market. In January, the CBOT soybean price first declined and then rebounded. Although strong NOPA crushing data and South American weather issues provided short - term support, the overall loose global supply situation still restricts the price upside. [6] - **Brazil**: Brazil's soybean harvest was initially delayed due to rainfall, but analysts still expect a bumper harvest. ABIOVE predicts Brazil's soybean output to be 177.124 million tons, higher than last year's 171.481 million tons. CONAB estimates the 2025/26 season output to reach a record 176.124 million tons, a 2.7% year - on - year increase. As of January 30, the soybean price at the Paranagua port decreased. The bumper harvest in Brazil lays the foundation for a loose global soybean supply pattern in the 2025/26 season, and short - term weather disturbances will only cause market fluctuations. [7] Profit - Supported by costs and the boost in terminal demand during the Spring Festival stocking period, the oil mill's crushing profit has strengthened. [11] Supply End - **Arrival Quantity**: In the first quarter, due to the switch of the export windows of US and Brazilian soybeans, the quantity of imported soybeans will seasonally decline. The estimated arrival quantities in January, February, and March are about 7.72 million tons, 5.005 million tons, and 4.8 million tons respectively. In 2025, the total annual import of soybeans was 111.833 million tons, a 6.46% year - on - year increase. [12] - **Crushing and Operating Rate**: In January 2026, the domestic soybean crushing volume was 9.3672 million tons, a 2.76% month - on - month decrease, and the comprehensive operating rate was 57.71%, a 2.73% month - on - month decrease. Due to the decline in soybean arrivals in the first quarter, the operating rate and crushing volume of oil mills may decrease, and soybean meal may experience a short - term supply shortage. [12][13] Demand End - In January, the trading volume of soybean meal increased significantly, with far - month basis contracts dominating. Downstream enterprises mainly built positions for contracts from May - July and August - September to avoid price risks and prepare raw material inventories for the second half of the year. Spot trading was average, with an increase but less than that of far - month contracts. The Spring Festival stocking was lackluster. After the Spring Festival, the resumption of work by downstream enterprises may slightly boost spot trading. By January 30, the total monthly trading volume was 7.4655 million tons, a 10.23% increase from the previous month and a 141.01% year - on - year increase. Spot trading volume was 1.6767 million tons, and far - month basis trading volume was 5.7888 million tons. The monthly domestic major oil mill's soybean meal pick - up volume was 3.6946 million tons, a 13.32% month - on - month decrease but a 19.87% year - on - year increase. [18] Inventory - The significant increase in soybean meal trading volume in January led to a seasonal decrease in inventory. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking speed may accelerate. As of January, the soybean meal inventory decreased to 947,000 tons, a 4.43% month - on - month increase, and the contract volume decreased to 4.4214 million tons, an 11.46% month - on - month decrease. As of January 31, the domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal inventory days were 11.33 days, a 19.8% increase from the end of last month and a 3.9% increase from the same period last year. [20]

行业 豆粕 日期 2026 年 2 月 3 日 021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 农产品研究团队 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 - 2 - 1 一、行情回顾与操作建议 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Group 1 - Global canola production is experiencing a mild recovery, but major producing countries face export challenges. Canada and the EU account for over 65% of global canola production, with both regions expected to see reduced output in the 2024/25 season, particularly the EU, which is projected to decline by over 13% year-on-year due to extreme weather conditions [2][19][20] - For the 2025/26 season, global canola production is estimated at 92.27 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous year, primarily driven by a recovery in EU production, which is expected to rise nearly 20% [20][19] - Canada remains the primary exporter of canola, with a projected production of 20.028 million tons for the 2025/26 season, a 12% increase despite a 2% decrease in planting area [22][19] Group 2 - The anti-dumping investigation initiated by China against Canadian canola has significantly impacted export volumes, with a sharp decline in exports observed since May, leading to a substantial increase in Canadian canola inventory [22][5] - The future price dynamics of canola oil will depend on the outcome of the anti-dumping case, with two potential scenarios: continued tension in China-Canada relations leading to sustained supply issues, or a thawing of relations resulting in increased exports from Canada [22][24] - The final ruling on the anti-dumping case is expected to influence the pricing and valuation system for canola oil, with market sentiment likely to fluctuate based on the outcome [24][25] Group 3 - China imported 6.39 million tons of canola in 2024, with 95.8% sourced from Canada. However, due to ongoing trade tensions, Australia and Russia are emerging as alternative suppliers [11][27] - The domestic inventory of canola is under pressure, with a significant reduction in imports from Canada leading to a tight supply situation. As of November 21, coastal oil mills had only 24,500 tons of canola in stock, a drop of over 50% from the peak in May [28][12] - Despite weak demand for canola oil, stable withdrawal volumes are expected to continue until trade channels with Canada are reopened, maintaining a tight supply situation and providing price support [30][14] Group 4 - The oilseed sector is anticipated to remain in a tight supply-demand balance, influenced by international trade relations and biofuel policies. The outcome of the anti-dumping case will be a critical factor in determining future price trends [31][16] - If relations between China and Canada improve, a potential price drop may occur, while continued tensions could lead to price increases, despite the introduction of Australian and Russian canola into the market [31][16]

国际原油价格出现明显回调，主要是受到了俄乌冲突存在缓解预期的影响。就目前的市场形势看来，基 本面OPEC+再度确认3月不会增产，这意味着目前供给侧宽松的现状不会得到进一步的恶化，但客观情 况下供给趋宽的预期依然存在，因此供给侧依然对油价存在施压；金融属性方面，1月议息会议暂停降 息路径，且特朗普宣布下任主席的人选，该结果引发市场动荡，并押注年内降息超过两次，或小幅缓解 宏观经济压力；政治属性方面，近期俄乌虽然展开谈判，但尚未完全达成停火协议，并且伊朗与美国直 接的国际局势依然存在着升级可能，短期内波动依然较高。上周原油价格为植物油板块提供的利多影响 提振暂时消退，并产生了一定的风险升水回吐，本月如果原油价格依然维持高波动率，油脂板块或仍会 受其影响。 （二）中加关系缓和菜系原料供应格局重塑，但短期利空有限 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 行情回顾 1月份，国内油脂板块整体呈现多头趋势，但品种间强弱分化格局明显。1月上旬，市场在前期利空出尽 与另无额外利多的博弈中反复震荡试探。进入中下旬后，随着美国生物燃料政策消息再现利多预期，同 时东南亚棕榈油产区季节性减产阶段下，前期下降不 ...

Group 1 - The oilseed market experienced a volatile week, initially rising due to macroeconomic factors but later declining as fundamental support weakened [3][11] - The recent surge in oilseed prices was driven by a favorable macro environment, including a drop in the US dollar index and geopolitical tensions, but this rapid increase is seen as unsustainable [3][12] - The US biodiesel policy is becoming clearer, providing some bullish sentiment for the oilseed market, with the 45Z tax credit plan expected to be announced soon [4][12] Group 2 - Despite a positive macro backdrop, the rapid price increase in oilseeds has outpaced fundamental support, leading to increased volatility risks [4][12] - Palm oil production in Malaysia is expected to decrease, with estimates showing a reduction of 14.43% to 14.81% in early January, but the overall production remains historically high [5][13] - The palm oil market is facing pressure from high inventory levels and a lack of significant export growth, with January exports projected to be around 1.4 million tons [5][13] Group 3 - The Indonesian CPO reference price is expected to rise, potentially exceeding $930 per ton, which may lead to increased export taxes and support for palm oil prices [7][15] - The recent bullish trend in oilseeds is at risk of reversal due to the lack of substantial developments in US biodiesel policy and high palm oil inventories [7][15] - The market anticipates that the upcoming Ramadan and increased biodiesel policy news may provide support for oilseed prices in the medium to long term, with key support levels identified for soybean and palm oil [7][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view is that due to the expected high yield in South America, there is no basis for a bull market. However, with the potential improvement in demand, the downside is limited, and the market will generally fluctuate with an upward bias, ranging from 1000 - 1200 cents per bushel [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Price - **US Soybeans**: The active contract of US soybeans closed at 1064.25 cents per bushel this week, down 3.5 cents per bushel. The reasons are that the forecast of rain in the Argentine production area in February alleviates market concerns, and the weakening of the US dollar and strengthening of the real are conducive to enhancing the export competitiveness of US soybeans. Next week's focus points include China's procurement rhythm, weather conditions in South American main production areas, and the progress of the biodiesel policy [8][10] - **US Soybean Meal**: The price of US soybean meal fell this week, closing at 293.6 dollars per short ton, down 6.3 dollars per short ton. The forecast of precipitation in the Argentine soybean production area in February alleviated market concerns, and the strengthening of soybean oil brought additional pressure to the soybean meal market [11][12] - **US Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean oil fluctuated and closed down this week, closing at 53.51 cents per pound, up 0.48 cents per pound. This week, it mainly fluctuated sideways. The decline of US soybeans brought correction pressure to the soybean market, while the strengthening of the commodity index attracted buying due to the strong financial attributes of oils, limiting the decline [14][15] - **Regional Soybean Prices**: As of January 23, the price of soybeans in the US Gulf was 11.69 dollars per bushel, up 0.17 dollars. The price of soybeans in Iowa was 9.94 dollars per bushel, up 0.11 dollars week - on - week. On January 30, the spot price in Mato Grosso, Brazil, fell 1.93 to 99.63 reais per bag. As of January 28, the spot price at Brazilian ports fell 3.61 to 125.08 reais per bag [17][19][21] 3.2 Supply Factors - **Brazil**: In the next two weeks, the southern region will have less precipitation, the eastern region will have more, and the central - western region will be basically normal. The main production areas will have generally normal to above - normal precipitation, with the precipitation in Mato Grosso being normal to above - normal in the next two weeks, while the precipitation in the states of Paraná and Rio Grande do Sul will be less [26][33][37] - **Argentina**: The main production areas will have less precipitation in the next two weeks, with a slight improvement in the central and southern production areas. In the next week, the southern and western production areas will receive precipitation [40][42][44] 3.3 Demand Factors - **US Soybean Pressing Profit**: As of January 23, the US soybean pressing profit was 2.54 dollars per bushel, up from 2.4 dollars last week [48] - **US Soybean Export**: In the week of January 23, the weekly export volume of US soybeans was 1.2695 million tons, down from 1.3377 million tons last week. The weekly export inspection and quarantine was 1.3244 million tons, down from 1.3366 million tons last week. The net sales for this year were 0.8189 million tons, down from 2.446 million tons last week. The sales for the next year were 0 tons, down from 0.9 million tons last week. The quantity shipped to China was 0.8974 million tons, up from 0.6119 million tons last week [51][53][55] 3.4 Other Factors - **ENSO Index**: The latest value of the ENSO (NINO3.4 anomaly index) is - 0.914, and La Niña is weakening [62] - **Soybean Production Cost**: The cost of Brazilian soybeans in the next year is expected to rise. The soybean planting costs in Brazil and the US are expected to rise slightly, while the US soybean planting cost continues to increase, and the Brazilian soybean cost has decreased year - on - year [64][66][68] - **CFTC Positions**: As of January 27, the net long position of soybeans was 54,300 lots, up from 45,300 lots last week; the net long position of soybean oil was 18,100 lots, compared with a net short position of 19,600 lots last week; the net short position of soybean meal was 31,700 lots, down from 38,100 lots last week [70][73][75]

去年12月下旬以来，豆油期价持续上涨，并创下逾一年来新高。 "美国生物柴油政策预期回升与国际原油价格上涨，共同推动全球油脂价格普涨。"中州期货农产品分析 师吴晓杰表示，美国EPA拟提高2026年生物质柴油配额，并调整豁免比例。此消息推动CBOT豆油价格 走高，并传导至国内。此外，地缘局势紧张推动原油走强，进一步为油脂板块走高提供了支撑。 山东齐盛期货油脂油料分析师刘瑞杰则认为，棕榈油价格走强，导致豆棕价差扩大，从而驱动豆油期价 上涨。 刘瑞杰表示，国内豆油表观需求持续高位，去年四季度以来持续去库，预计库存低点可能出现在3—4月 份。 吴晓杰补充道，受国内春节前备货需求影响，部分油厂提货已排队至下月初，导致商业库存较前月下降 约15%。同时，菜油因进口受限持续去库，豆棕价差倒挂也促使市场需求向豆油倾斜，共同助推豆油价 格走强。 豆油不仅需求端有支撑，供应端也很乐观。徽商期货油脂油料分析师郭文伟告诉记者，预计2025/2026 年度巴西大豆丰产1.76亿~1.81亿吨。国内缺豆担忧或被高估。虽然一季度大豆到港量减少，但国家通 过拍卖储备大豆，成交超200万吨且提货集中在1—4月，所以3—4月市场供需难现明显缺口。 ...

多重利好因素提振 豆类油脂整体偏强 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 生猪 2026 年 1 月 29 日 豆类日报 油脂市场联动走强，主要受多重利好因素共振驱动。美国生物柴油政策的 潜在利好预期持续提振美豆油，而马棕 1 月季节性减产与印度斋月前备货需 求共同强化产地去库预期，叠加国际原油价格坚挺，BMD 毛棕榈油连续上涨。 国内油脂板块强势跟涨。但盘面的过快上涨已经开始抑制现货成交，下游贸易 商接受度低，导致豆油现货基差承压，但远月基差合同成交放量，反映出市场 在为远期供应进行布局。整体来看，油脂板块在进口成本上升与商品市场普涨 氛围支撑下，油脂期价保持偏强运行格局。现货市场随着近月船期采购持续推 进，供应预期趋于宽松，将限制基差走强空间，随着现货交投受到影响，近月 基差面临回落风险。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：毕慧 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F0268536 投资咨询证号：Z0011311 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：bihui@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协 会授予的期货从业资格证 书，期货投资咨询资格证 书，本人 ...