Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver have surged to historic highs, with spot gold breaking the $5000 per ounce mark, driven by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand for gold, and geopolitical premiums [1][11]. Market Performance - As of the report, spot gold rose by 2.05% to $5090.288 per ounce, reaching a peak of $5111.17, while spot silver surged by 6.06% to $109.6 per ounce, surpassing the $110 mark [3][5]. - In the futures market, COMEX gold futures increased by 2.02% to $5080.4 per ounce, with a peak of $5107.9, and COMEX silver futures rose by 7.54% to $108.97 per ounce, hitting a high of $110.065 [6][7]. Influencing Factors - The current gold price rally, which began in early 2025 at around $3000 per ounce, reflects significant changes in the macroeconomic environment [9]. - Short-term factors include ongoing geopolitical risks, such as tensions over Greenland's sovereignty and escalating US-Iran relations, which have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold [9]. - Mid-term factors involve the interplay between the Federal Reserve's policy path and its independence, with expectations of weakened monetary policy independence supporting gold prices [9][10]. - Long-term drivers include the structural weakening of the dollar credit system, with global central banks increasing gold reserves and a steady de-dollarization process [10]. Future Outlook - The long-term upward trend for gold remains intact, influenced by factors such as weakened dollar credibility, strong central bank demand, and geopolitical premiums [11]. - Analysts predict that gold prices could potentially reach $6000 per ounce by 2026, driven by ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and expectations of continued monetary easing [11]. - Investment strategies suggested include a diversified approach based on individual financial capacity and risk tolerance, with recommendations for different investment vehicles such as gold futures, ETFs, and physical gold [11].

Industry Overview - The gold mining and refining industry is expected to benefit from rising gold prices, leading to increased sales revenue and profit margins for companies. Several gold mining and refining firms have already announced performance growth for 2025, directly linked to the rise in gold prices and increased gold production [3] - The gold retail sector is experiencing a surge in demand for gold jewelry and investment bars as gold prices rise, enhancing consumer interest in gold asset allocation. Leading domestic gold retail companies are leveraging brand advantages and channel layouts to meet market demand [3] - The silver industry, which possesses both safe-haven and industrial attributes, is seeing continuous growth in demand from sectors like photovoltaics, AI data centers, and electric vehicles. This has resulted in five consecutive years of supply falling short of demand, solidifying the logic for rising silver prices and benefiting industry players from both price increases and industrial demand [3] Company Performance - Zijin Mining is expected to report a net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 59% to 62%. This growth is attributed to an increase in gold production of around 90 tons and higher sales prices [4] - Hunan Gold anticipates a net profit of 1.27 to 1.608 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 50% to 90%. The profit increase is primarily due to rising sales prices of gold, antimony, and tungsten products [4] - Chifeng Gold expects a net profit increase of approximately 70% to 81% for 2025, with an estimated net profit of 3 to 3.2 billion yuan. This is driven by a projected gold production of about 14.4 tons and a year-on-year increase of approximately 49% in sales prices [4] - China Gold, a leading domestic gold retail company, is benefiting from heightened market enthusiasm for gold asset allocation, resulting in steady growth in product sales and related business scale [4]

Group 1 - Gold prices have reached a historic high, with spot gold surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver hitting $107, indicating strong demand in the precious metals market [1][3] - Central banks globally are increasing their gold purchases, with a net buying of 45 tons reported in November, maintaining a high level compared to previous months [3] - The Chinese central bank has consistently increased its gold reserves for 14 consecutive months, reaching 7.415 million ounces, which boosts market confidence [3] Group 2 - The rise in precious metal prices is attributed to weakened dollar credit and heightened geopolitical tensions, leading to increased safe-haven demand [3] - Industrial metals such as copper, aluminum, lead, and zinc are also experiencing price increases, driven by low global inventories and anticipated recovery in the Chinese economy [3][4] - The performance of the non-ferrous mining ETF has been strong, with a one-year increase of 128.68%, indicating high price elasticity and responsiveness to rising metal prices [5]

Core Insights - Domestic gold price reached 1121.16 CNY per gram, up by 1.66% [1] - International gold price reported at 5032.9 USD per ounce, up by 1.07% [2] Group 1: Price Movements - Spot gold price first broke the 5000 USD per ounce mark, setting a historical high on January 26. Multiple institutions have raised their gold price forecasts, with Goldman Sachs increasing its 2026 year-end target from 4900 USD to 5400 USD, and Jefferies providing an aggressive target of 6600 USD. This breakthrough is attributed to the weakening of the US dollar's credibility, a resonance of demand from global central banks and the private sector, and rising expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [3] Group 2: Geopolitical Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks have heightened demand for safe-haven assets like gold. Ongoing disputes between the US and Europe over Greenland remain unresolved, with Trump threatening significant retaliation against Europe for selling US assets. Additionally, tensions in the Middle East have intensified, with the US increasing military presence in the Persian Gulf, and both Israel and Iran on high alert. Turkey has warned external forces against interfering in Iranian affairs, leading to a surge in global risk aversion and capital flowing into gold as a safe haven [4] Group 3: Central Bank Actions - Global central banks continue to purchase gold, with the People's Bank of China having increased its gold holdings for 14 consecutive months. The average monthly gold purchase by global central banks is expected to reach 60 tons by 2026, reinforcing the price support for gold. The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve will implement 2 to 3 rate cuts in 2026, leading to a continued decline in the US dollar index and reducing the opportunity cost of holding gold, further boosting investment demand for the metal [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 01 月 25 日 金银齐舞，美元信用弱势与现货结构性紧缺塑造价格新高 金属行业周报 周期/金属及材料 我们统计相对历史最高价，大部分有色金属当前价格尚处于腰部及以下。民族 主义强化大叙事，资源股维持逢低加仓、长期坚定持有。重点关注金银铜铝钨 铀稀土锂钴钽镁镍等品种。短期推荐寻找补涨金属、标的。此外，关注科技成 长相关新材料标的。马斯克点燃商业航天主题，关注斯瑞新材、西部材料、有 研粉材、银邦股份等。 推荐（维持） 行业规模 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数（只） | 236 | 4.6 | | 总市值（十亿元） | 8324.2 | 7.3 | | 流通市值（十亿元） | 7294.7 | 7.0 | 行业指数 | % | 1m | 6m | 12m | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 绝对表现 | 20.9 | 61.5 | 102.5 | | 相对表现 | 19.1 | 47.3 | 78.8 | 资料来源：公司数据、招商证券 相关报告 1、《核电全球复苏，铀价中枢预计 整体上行—核能系列报 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a divergence between trading volatility and stable retail prices, with a notable decline in domestic gold consumption and a shift in consumer behavior towards lower-cost options [1][2]. Group 1: Domestic Gold Price Trends - As of January 21, 2026, international gold prices are at $4,673.5 per ounce, while domestic benchmark gold prices fluctuate around 1,046-1,048 yuan per gram, with retail prices for 999 gold remaining firm between 1,400-1,456 yuan per gram [1]. - Major brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang are quoting gold prices between 1,450-1,456 yuan per gram, indicating a significant drop from previous highs, while platinum remains at a high of 940 yuan per gram [1]. - Consumer sentiment is cautious, leading to a notable decrease in market transactions as brands increase promotional efforts [1]. Group 2: Consumption Decline - Data from the China Gold Association shows that domestic gold consumption fell by 7.95% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with gold jewelry consumption plummeting by 32.50% due to high gold prices impacting traditional jewelry purchases [2]. - Retail feedback from cities like Nanjing and Wuhan indicates a more than 30% drop in foot traffic compared to periods of lower gold prices, with brands exploring trade-in options to stimulate sales [2]. Group 3: Price Disparities in the Gold Market - The gold market exhibits significant price stratification, with retail prices for gold jewelry exceeding raw material prices by over 400 yuan per gram, leading to premium rates above 40% for brands like Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang [3]. - There is a price gap among brands for similar quality gold products, with prices ranging from 1,410 yuan per gram for brands like Caibai and China Gold to 1,455-1,456 yuan per gram for Chow Tai Fook and Chow Sang Sang, resulting in a price difference of 46 yuan per gram [4]. - Investment-grade gold bars are priced around 1,049-1,050 yuan per gram, while gold jewelry buyback prices are only 1,030-1,040 yuan per gram, indicating a consumption loss of over 400 yuan per gram [5]. Group 4: Factors Driving Gold Price Increases - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to three main factors: geopolitical risks, weakening dollar credibility, and expectations of loose monetary policy [6][7][8]. - The ongoing Middle East conflicts and instability in South America are driving funds into gold as a safe asset [6]. - The U.S. federal debt surpassing $38 trillion and policy disagreements are diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [7]. - Market expectations of two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2026 are favorable for non-yielding assets like gold, with central banks globally increasing gold purchases [8]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior and Brand Strategies - In response to weak consumer demand, brands are adjusting their product offerings, focusing on lightweight designs and cross-category products that combine gold with other materials [9]. - Collaborations with popular IPs to create "fixed-price" products are being employed to emphasize craftsmanship over weight, significantly improving profit margins [10]. - Brands are enhancing digital marketing efforts, utilizing live streaming to showcase traditional gold craftsmanship and attract younger consumers [10]. Group 6: Industry Recommendations - Industry analysts suggest improving profitability through increased brand usage fees, optimizing supply chain efficiency, and enhancing premium design, with potential gross margin improvements of up to 15% per gram [11]. - Short-term traders are advised to focus on gold ETFs and futures while managing positions to mitigate volatility risks [13]. - Long-term investors should prioritize low-premium products like bank gold bars and panda coins to avoid consumption losses associated with jewelry [14]. - Conservative investors may consider gold-themed funds for liquidity and risk mitigation, as current gold prices are at historical highs, with potential for significant corrections [15].

记者丨李益文 1月23日，国际黄金市场迎来大幅上涨，现货黄金一举站上4950美元/盎司关口，刷新历史最高纪录，最高触及4967.37美元/盎司。COMEX黄金期货价格同 步走强，最高触及4970美元/盎司，距离5000美元整数关口仅一步之遥。 | | 贵金属 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 伦敦金现 | 4950.150 | 14.190 | 0.29% | | 伦敦银现 | 98.709 | 2.562 | 2.66% | | COMEX黄金 | 4951.8d | 38.4 | 0.78% | | COMEX自银 | 98.515d | 2.143 | 2.22% | | SHFE黄金 | 1114.66 | 26.76 | 2.46% | | SHFE自银 | 24879 | 1870 | 8.13% | 事实上，当前全球央行正在掀起新一轮购金热潮。中国人民银行官方储备资产数据显示，截至2025年12月末，我国黄金储备为7415万盎司，当月增持3万 盎司。值得注意的是，这已是央行自2024年11月以来，连续第14个月增持黄 ...

记者丨李益文 编辑丨叶映橙 视频丨 陈泽锴 | | | 贡記馬 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | | 伦敦金现 | 4950.150 | 14.190 | 0.29% | | 伦敦银现 | 98.709 | 2.562 | 2.66% | | COMEX黄金 | 4951.8d | 38.4 | 0.78% | | COMEX白银 | 98.515d | 2.143 | 2.22% | | SHFE黄金 | 1114.66 | 26.76 | 2.46% | | SHEE自辑 | 24879 | 1870 | 8.13% | 国际金价的飙升迅速传导至国内市场， 国内多数知名金饰品牌报价刷新1500元/克。其中，老庙黄金报1548元/克，较昨日上涨52元/克；周生 生报1545元/克，较昨日上涨53元/克。 1月23日，国际黄金市场迎来大幅上涨，现货黄金一举站上4950美元/盎司关口，刷新历史最高纪录，最高触及4967.37美元/盎司。COMEX黄 金期货价格同步走强，最高触及4970美元/盎司，距离5000美元整数关口仅一步之遥。 | 陶 ...

Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Gold prices have surged, with COMEX futures reaching $4,865 per ounce and London spot gold at $4,859.02 per ounce as of January 21, 2026, driven by weakening dollar credit, geopolitical uncertainties, and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][2] - The U.S. federal debt reached $38.51 trillion by the end of 2025, with a federal deficit of $1.98 trillion, leading to a decline in global trust in dollar assets [2][20] - In 2025, gold prices set 53 historical records, with global gold ETF inflows totaling $89 billion, and central banks purchasing a net total of 297 tons of gold, providing strong support for prices above $4,000 [3][23] Group 2: Silver Market Dynamics - Silver's intrinsic value is being redefined due to its irreplaceable role in solar energy, electric vehicles, and AI data centers, with industrial demand expected to grow significantly [5][72] - The global silver market is facing supply constraints, with production growth limited by declining ore grades and mining difficulties, leading to a projected supply of 32,100 tons against a demand of 35,700 tons in 2025 [8][57] - As of January 20, 2026, COMEX silver prices reached $94.06 per ounce, reflecting a 216.5% increase since the beginning of 2025, driven by both industrial demand and financial attributes [8][74] Group 3: Macro Environment and Policy Impacts - The Federal Reserve's policy challenges and mixed economic data are key factors influencing short-term gold prices, with expectations of further rate cuts amid economic uncertainty [10][41] - Global economic growth momentum is slowing, with manufacturing PMIs in major economies indicating a deceleration, reinforcing gold's defensive asset appeal [11][42] - The ongoing trend of de-dollarization and the rise of gold in global reserves, which increased to 25.94% by January 2026, highlights gold's role as a hedge against credit risk [22][43] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - Companies like Zijin Mining and Chifeng Jilong Gold are projected to see significant earnings growth, with Zijin's EPS expected to rise from 1.21 yuan in 2024 to 2.31 yuan in 2026, indicating strong investment potential [12] - The performance of silver-focused companies such as Xingye Silver and Jiangxi Copper is also expected to benefit from rising silver prices and sustained industrial demand [12]

Core Viewpoint - The international gold market has seen a significant rise in prices, reaching historical highs, driven by increased market risk aversion and weakening dollar confidence [1][2][3]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 20, 2026, London spot gold prices surpassed $4,700 per ounce, peaking at $4,731.54 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures reached $4,738.0 per ounce, with cumulative increases of 9.38% and 9.31% respectively since 2026 [1][7]. - The recent surge in gold prices is attributed to a combination of geopolitical tensions and market dynamics, leading to a strong influx of investment into gold [3][9]. Group 2: Market Drivers - Analysts indicate that the primary drivers for the high gold prices include heightened market risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Venezuela and Iran, and concerns over the independence of the Federal Reserve following legal pressures on its chairman [2][8]. - The U.S. economic data has shown resilience, with no immediate signs of recession, which has contributed to a cautious outlook on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, further supporting gold prices [2][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the gold market may experience increased volatility in the short term, with recommendations for investors to wait for price corrections before entering long positions [2][9]. - There is a consensus among analysts that the geopolitical landscape will continue to provide substantial support for gold prices, with some predicting potential highs of $5,200 per ounce in the short term, although caution is advised regarding overvaluation risks [5][11].