投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20260210 联系人 李婷、黄蕾 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 主要品种观点 宏观：海外风险偏好回暖，主要资产普遍反弹 海外方面，日本执政党在 2 月众议院选举获压倒性胜利，首相称食品减税将通过非税收 入与补贴审查筹资、不发行赤字国债，日股涨近 4%，日元兑美元升值 0.85%。贝森特称即 便沃什执掌美联储，缩表亦难加速，在压低按揭利率目标下，美联储将以金融稳定优先，避 免激进收紧。市场风险偏好继续修复，美股全线收涨，10Y 美债利率回升至 4.19%，金银分 别修复至 5030、82 美元，铜价、油价延续收涨 1%+。本周关注美国 1 月非农、CPI 以及 12 月零售数据。 国内方面，上周处于经济数据与政策真空期，国内市场跟随海外进一步修复，A 股周一 延续修复，上证指数低开高走收于 4123 点，双创板块领涨，红利风格相对较弱，两市超 4700 只个股收涨、赚钱效应极好，成交额小幅升至 2.27 万亿元，两融余额边际下降，中证 500、 中证 1000ETF 显著净流入。市场正从月初的大跌中逐渐修复：一方面受海外科技股反弹 ...

市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI基于第三方数据生成，仅供参考，不构成个人投资建议。 本文源自：市场资讯 作者：观察君 美东时间2月9日，全球资产价格出现显著波动，美元指数大幅走弱带动风险资产及贵金属价格上行。当 日美元指数大跌0.84%，跌破97关口，美股三大指数低开高走，道指再创历史新高，贵金属板块全线走 高。 美股收盘数据显示，道指收涨0.04%，标普500指数收涨0.47%，纳指收涨0.90%。大型科技股多数走 强，其中甲骨文涨幅超9%，微软、博通、AMD涨幅均超3%，英伟达、Meta涨超2%，特斯拉涨超1%。 贵金属市场中，COMEX黄金期货涨超2%，COMEX白银期货大涨8%。 针对美元大幅走弱，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克表示，已经观察到市场对美元信心出现质疑的迹象。美 联储理事米兰则指出，当前美元下跌幅度尚未对货币政策产生实质性影响，其对消费者通胀的影响也较 为有限。米兰此前曾提及，美国经济未出现强劲价格压力，美联储2026年需要降息超过100个基点，期 待沃什担任美联储主席后的政策走向。 美国财政部长贝森特此前针对美联储缩表议题表态称，即便沃什出任美联储主席，美联储也不会迅速启 动缩表行动，预计 ...

他明确指出，即便由此前曾批评央行债券购买计划的沃什出任美联储主席，也不意味着央行会迅速采取行动缩减资产负债表。更关键的是时间维度。贝森特 表示，美联储可能需要长达一年的时间，来评估并决定资产负债表的未来方向。 这一说法本质上是在向市场传递一个信号：短期内不应期待激进的缩表操作。对于市场而言，这种"不会马上动手"的表态本身就是一种重要的预期管理，也 降低了流动性突然收紧的可能性。在阿萨交易学社的宏观研究框架中，这种预期的软着陆往往能为贵金属提供喘息空间。 在黄金交易入门学习过程中，很多投资者最先关注的是加息和降息，但实际上，美联储资产负债表的变化对黄金同样至关重要。资产负债表扩张意味着央行 通过购买国债等方式向市场投放流动性，通常有助于压低长期利率。 而缩表则会逐步回收流动性，对长期收益率形成上行压力。历史上看，激进缩表阶段往往会增加市场波动，也会对金价形成阶段性压制。因此，市场真正担 心的并不是"缩不缩表"，而是"会不会缩得过快"。贝森特此次强调"不急于行动"，某种程度上缓解了这种担忧。 贝森特在讲话中多次提到"充裕储备机制"，这是理解美联储当前操作逻辑的关键。在这一框架下，美联储需要确保银行体系中拥有足够的 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The focus of the conference call is on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet policies and the implications of a smaller Fed footprint in the financial markets. Core Insights and Arguments - **Balance Sheet Reduction Tools**: The Federal Reserve can reduce its balance sheet through two methods: passive quantitative tightening (QT) and active QT. Passive QT involves allowing securities to mature without reinvestment, while active QT involves selling selected securities directly, which can lead to increased market volatility and potential losses [5][9][12]. - **Liquidity Implications**: Reducing the balance sheet drains liquidity from the financial system. A decrease in assets leads to a reduction in Fed liabilities, tightening financial conditions and increasing volatility as reserves transition from "ample" to "scarce" [5][11][13]. - **Mortgage-Backed Securities (MBS) Runoff**: The runoff of MBS is expected to be slow due to elevated mortgage rates, which have limited prepayment speeds. The Fed's MBS portfolio may take years to decline naturally without active sales, which would require significantly lower mortgage rates [10][24][27]. - **Regulatory Considerations**: To effectively shrink the balance sheet, there must be a reduction in banks' demand for reserves, potentially requiring changes to liquidity regulations such as the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) and Internal Liquidity Stress Test (ILST). Lower liquidity buffers could increase financial stability risks [11][64][67]. - **Treasury Coordination**: Adjustments to Treasury General Account (TGA) targets or the issuance mix can influence how balance sheet reduction flows through the system and affect the maturity structure of the Fed's portfolio [11][87]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of New Fed Chair**: The nomination of Kevin Warsh as the new Chair of the Board of Governors has renewed focus on the Fed's balance sheet policies. Warsh has criticized the Fed for its large footprint in financial markets, emphasizing the need for a smaller balance sheet and less market intervention [6][7]. - **Profitability Concerns**: The Fed has faced operating losses since September 2020, as interest earned from low-yielding securities has not covered the interest paid on reserves. Active sales of MBS could exacerbate these losses but may lead to improved profitability in the long run [32][41][38]. - **Market Volatility**: A smaller Fed footprint could lead to higher volatility in macro markets, as reduced communication and guidance from the Fed may result in less consensus among investors and more policy surprises [87][88]. Conclusion - The Federal Reserve's approach to balance sheet reduction is complex and involves significant trade-offs between liquidity, market functioning, and financial stability. The implications of these policies will be closely monitored as the Fed navigates its new leadership and economic conditions.

【基本面跟踪】 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | 昨日值 | 较前日变动/涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪铅主力收盘价 | 16585 | 0.45% | 伦铅 3M 电子盘收 | 1965.5 | 0.59% | | （元/吨） | | | 盘（美元/吨） | | | | 沪铅主力成交量 | 49645 | -775 | 伦铅成交量（手） | 5987 | -1177 | | （手） | | | | | | | 沪铅主力持仓量 | 50305 | -1722 | 伦铅持仓量（手） | 176330 | -578 | | （手） | | | | | | | 上海 1# 铅升贴水 | 0 | 0 | LME CASH-3M 升 | -43.55 | 6.45 | | （元/吨） | | | 贴水（美元/吨） | | | | PB00-PB01（元/吨） | -40 | -20 | 进口升贴水（美 | 87.5 | 0 | | | | | 元/吨） | | | | 铅锭现货进口盈亏 | -97.18 | -44.26 | 沪铅连三进口盈亏 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report provides daily research and analysis on various futures commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, chemicals, agricultural products, etc., and gives corresponding trend judgments and investment suggestions for each commodity [1][2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - **Gold**: The price is expected to show an oscillating rebound trend, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][8][9]. - **Silver**: The price is expected to fall from a high level, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][8][9]. - **Platinum**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29][30]. - **Palladium**: The price is expected to oscillate within a box, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][29]. Base Metals - **Copper**: The decline of the US dollar supports the price, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][13]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][16]. - **Lead**: Due to losses in the recycling sector, attention is paid to the lower - level support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][19]. - **Tin**: Technical repair is underway, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][22]. - **Aluminum**: It is recommended to hold a light position before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Alumina**: The price is expected to rebound from the bottom, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][26]. - **Nickel**: Affected by the departure of funds before the holiday, the mid - line contradiction lies in Indonesia, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. - **Stainless Steel**: There are frequent maintenance and production cuts in February, and the cost support center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][33]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: The supply - demand pattern is tight, and the downside space is limited, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][40]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Inventory is accumulating, and attention should be paid to the situation of warehouse receipts, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][44]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the post - holiday spot transactions, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][45]. - **Iron Ore**: The demand expectation is weakening, and the price is oscillating and falling, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][48]. - **Rebar**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The apparent demand decreases month - on - month, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][53]. - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Manganese Ferrosilicon**: The sentiment of the sector is weak, and the price oscillates widely, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][57]. - **Coke**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][61]. - **Coking Coal**: Long - position holders take profits, and the price oscillates weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][62]. - **Log**: The demand expectation is poor, and the price is falling, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][65]. - **Para - Xylene**: It is in a unilateral oscillating market, and the month - spread is weak, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **PTA**: It is in a range - bound market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **MEG**: Interval operation is recommended, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][70]. - **Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][78]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][81]. - **LLDPE**: Spot transactions have stagnated, and funds are seeking risk - aversion, showing an oscillating market, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][84]. - **PP**: The valuation repair is limited, and the weekly export orders are declining, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][87]. - **Caustic Soda**: The cost is rising, and the valuation is being repaired, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][90]. - **Pulp**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][102]. - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate with support, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][108]. - **Styrene**: The price is expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][111]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][114]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical disturbances still exist, and the fundamental driving force is downward, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **Propylene**: The supply - demand remains tight, and the upward driving force is weakening, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][118]. - **PVC**: The price is expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend intensity of - 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price rebounded at night, and the short - term weakness was temporarily alleviated, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It mainly follows the upward trend, and the spot price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas market rebounded slightly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Pay attention to the opening guidance of the near - month contract; a light long position can be established in the 7 - 9 positive spread, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][130]. - **Short - Fiber**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Bottle Chip**: It is expected to be in a short - term oscillating market, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][142]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: It is recommended to wait and see before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][145]. - **Pure Benzene**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][149]. - **Palm Oil**: The fundamental driving force is limited, and the price is supported by energy prices, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][153]. - **Soybean Meal**: It may oscillate following the US soybean, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][158]. - **Soybean**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong, with a trend intensity of +1 [2][158]. - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate narrowly, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][161]. - **Sugar**: Attention should be paid to low - basis opportunities, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][164]. - **Cotton**: It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend before the holiday, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][168]. - **Egg**: The price is expected to oscillate and adjust, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][173]. - **Live Pig**: The peak season is confirmed not to be prosperous, and the release of the backlog has begun, with a trend intensity of - 2 [2][176]. - **Peanut**: The price is expected to oscillate, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][181].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices rebounded, closing at $5084.2 per ounce, reflecting a 2.10% increase, while domestic SHFE gold also saw a rise of 1.00% to ¥1127.00 per gram, indicating a recovery in the gold market amid cautious monetary policy signals from the U.S. Treasury Secretary [2][7]. Economic Indicators - U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin indicated that even with Waller as Fed Chair, the balance sheet reduction will not be expedited, suggesting a cautious approach to monetary policy under the Trump administration [2][7]. - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is expected to show an increase of 69,000 jobs for January, with the unemployment rate projected to remain at 4.4%, slightly below the four-year high of 4.5% reached in November [2][7]. - A significant downward revision of 911,000 jobs is anticipated in the employment data, which could indicate a slower hiring pace [2][7]. Geopolitical Context - Tensions in the Gulf region persist, with ongoing U.S.-Iran-Oman negotiations failing to reach a consensus, maintaining the risk of conflict between the two nations [3][8]. - The sell-off in precious metals is nearing its end, but upward pressure remains in the market, complicating predictions due to geopolitical uncertainties [3][8].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 铜：美元回落，铜价企稳 隔夜沪铜主力震荡收涨至102450元，伦铜收涨于13200美金附近。 宏观中性偏多。哈塞特称未来几个月就业人数将放缓，降息预期改善，美元走软提振铜价。 基本面中性。昨日上期所铜仓单减少3044吨至15.7万吨，LME铜累库1025吨至18.43万吨。Capstone智利Mantoverde铜矿工会已批准新的劳动合同，罢工活动 结束。 总体来看，节前国内资金谨慎，叠加海外宏观缺乏指引，预计短期铜价较难维持趋势性，或延续宽幅震荡。今日沪铜主力运行区间参考10.15万-10.35万元/ 吨。策略上，节前控制好仓位，可考虑布局双买期权；中长线逢低多配。 重要声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，中信建投期货力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构 成个人投资建议，也没有考虑到个别客户特殊的投资目标、财务状况或需要。客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。（虞璐 彦/Z0023596，仅供参考） 铝：隔夜期货价格窄幅震荡，现货价格小幅企稳。消息面某北方氧化铝生产企业 ...

#见闻早餐# ...

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market opened lower, with the Dow Jones down 0.14%, while the Nasdaq rose by 0.11% and the S&P 500 increased by 0.18% [1] - Weight loss drug stocks saw a general increase, with Novo Nordisk rising over 6% and Eli Lilly up more than 2%. In contrast, Hims & Hers, facing a lawsuit for infringing on the patent of semaglutide, dropped 24% [1][3] - Novo Nordisk filed a lawsuit against Hims & Hers for allegedly misleading consumers about the clinical benefits and safety of its compounded semaglutide products, which are produced using unregulated raw materials [3] Group 2 - The FDA informed Novo Nordisk that the advertising for its weight loss drug Weeovy is either false or misleading [4] - Nvidia's stock rose by 3.31%, with a market capitalization increase of approximately $477.74 billion (around 3.31 trillion RMB) over two trading days [4] - AI application software stocks experienced a rebound, with Roblox rising over 9%, Applovin up more than 8%, and Unity Software increasing by nearly 8% [11]