Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - PX is expected to enter a short - term volatile market with expanding profits, and it is recommended to hold long PXN positions [3]. - PTA shows a weak trend, and it is advisable to hold long PTA and short PX positions and 1 - 5 backwardation [4]. - MEG has a weak trend due to cost collapse, and it is recommended to reduce short positions below 4000 yuan/ton and maintain 1 - 5 backwardation [5]. - The polyester industry's consumption is expected to improve as the weather turns cold and with the marginal increase in Double Eleven orders, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [3][4][5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PX Valuation and Profit - PXN is at 246 dollars/ton (+16), and the PX - MX Korea FOB spread is 102 dollars (+3). The decline in crude oil prices has led to the expansion of PX profits again [3]. - The unilateral PX price has been continuously decreasing due to negative demand feedback and weak cost support. The PX outer - market monthly spread is generally stable, while PXN has weakened significantly [19][25]. - Overseas oil product cracking spreads are strong, supporting overseas aromatic hydrocarbon valuations. The PX - MX spread has weakened significantly, and the Asian MX blending oil market has recovered [29][42]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - This week, the domestic PX plant operating rate is 84.9% (-3.5%), and the Asian overall load operating rate is 78% (-1.9%). Multiple overseas plants are scheduled for maintenance, and the supply - demand situation is slightly tight [3][55]. - In August, the PX import volume was 880,000 tons, and the import volume from South Korea increased significantly. The estimated import volume in September is 850,000 tons [56]. - In September, the PX monthly inventory in Longzhong dropped to 3.92 million tons (+30,000 tons) [70]. PTA Valuation and Profit - The 1 - 5 monthly spread of PTA is in backwardation. The processing fee is at a low level, weakening the plant's willingness to start operations [76][82]. - The PTA basis has declined due to negative demand feedback, sufficient supply in East China, and the planned commissioning of new plants [77]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The PTA operating rate is maintained at around 76.7% (+2.3%). The new Fengming PTA plant is planned to start operation this week, and the production volume this week is 1.45 million tons. Attention should be paid to the commissioning progress of the new Indian PTA plant GAIL [4][86]. - In August, the PTA export volume was 300,000 tons, and the export profit has decreased [90]. - The PTA inventory is at a low level [103]. MEG Valuation and Profit - The MEG basis is maintained at around 70 yuan/ton. MEG's valuation relative to ethylene oxide, styrene, and plastics has rebounded to the highest level this year [119][124]. - The profit of coal - based MEG plants is 47 yuan/ton (-171), while oil - based plants continue to operate at a loss [127]. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The MEG operating rate has reached a new high this year. This week, the operating rate continued to rise, and some plants will undergo maintenance and shutdown next week, which may cause a slight decline [129][130]. - In August, the MEG import volume was about 590,000 tons, and it is expected to recover in September [131]. - Multiple overseas MEG plants are under maintenance, and the European arbitrage window is gradually closing [138][141]. - The MEG port inventory has increased marginally [146]. Polyester Segment Valuation and Profit No relevant content provided. Supply and Demand, Inventory - The polyester operating rate is 91.4% (-0.1%). The profit of the polyester segment has been repaired, and the bottle - chip segment with successful inventory management is expected to increase its load, but the long - filament segment still faces pressure [150][153]. - The polyester production volume has increased by 8% year - on - year [157].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For PX, last week's PXN expanded passively due to the pressure on the naphtha spread. PX followed the decline of crude oil. With high PX load, short - term PTA maintenance, and new PTA device commissioning expectations, PX inventory is difficult to deplete. Currently, PXN is at a neutral level and mainly follows crude oil fluctuations. Short - term observation is recommended [11]. - For PTA, last week's PTA processing fee was under pressure due to commissioning expectations, and it mainly followed the passive decline of crude oil. In the future, supply maintenance will decrease, and inventory will gradually accumulate. The processing fee is difficult to expand. The demand side of polyester and chemical fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. Short - term observation is recommended [12]. - For MEG, the load of domestic and overseas devices is at a high level, the domestic supply is high, the import volume has rebounded, and the port has started to accumulate inventory. In the fourth quarter, with the concentrated arrival of imports and the expected continuous high domestic load, combined with the gradual commissioning of new devices, inventory accumulation is expected to continue. The current valuation is still relatively high, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation in a weak pattern. It is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: The price decreased last week. The supply side saw a decline in load in China and Asia, with some device maintenance. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load. Inventory is expected to slightly decrease in October. PXN expanded passively, and it is recommended to observe in the short term [11]. - **PTA**: The price decreased last week. The supply side had a slight increase in load, and maintenance in October decreased slightly. The demand side had a slight decline in polyester load, and the terminal showed signs of weakness. Inventory is expected to slightly accumulate. The processing fee was under pressure, and short - term observation is recommended [12]. - **MEG**: The price decreased last week. The supply side had an increase in load, and maintenance devices were few. The demand side had a slight decline in polyester load. Inventory is expected to gradually accumulate in the medium - term, and it is recommended to short on rallies [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis and spread were weakly volatile. The position increased, and the trading volume was neutral [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis was at a low level, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at low levels [44][47]. - **MEG**: The basis was stable, and the spread weakened. The position and trading volume were at low levels [57][63]. 3.3 p - Xylene Fundamental - **Capacity**: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2025 [77]. - **Supply**: The import volume increased in August, and the inventory was stable in August. PXN expanded passively, and the naphtha spread declined [83][91][95]. - **Aromatic Blending Oil**: The gasoline performance weakened, the US - South Korea aromatic spread changed, and the blending oil relative value and South Korea's aromatic inventory also changed [102][111][113]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental - **Capacity**: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2024 - 2025 [135]. - **Supply**: The export volume decreased in August, and the inventory remained at a low level. The processing fee was weak [140][143][146]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol Fundamental - **Capacity**: There will be new capacity commissioning in 2024 - 2025 [150]. - **Supply**: The start - up was high, and the load of syngas - based devices was at a historical high. The import volume was slightly flat in August, and the port inventory increased slightly this week [153][155][161]. - **Cost**: Coal prices declined, and ethylene prices fell [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New filament devices were commissioned. The basis of staple fiber strengthened, and the basis of bottle chips fluctuated. The start - up rate remained high, the inventory of filament was neutral, the profit of filament improved, and the export situation varied [187][191][194]. - **Terminal**: The start - up was still low. The orders and inventory of textile enterprises were stable, and the raw material inventory decreased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing recovered, but exports were weak. The US clothing inventory was below the pre - pandemic high, and the inventory increased marginally [214][221][225].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA: Cautiously bearish [3] - PX: Neutral [4] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [5] Core Views - PTA supply and demand are nearly balanced, with expected inventory accumulation pressure, lacking drivers, and being significantly affected by crude oil costs and macro - tariff changes, and is short - term bearish [3]. - PX maintains a dynamic balance, with stable PXN. Short - term costs and macro factors are bearish, so it is short - term bearish [4]. - Ethylene glycol is priced based on expectations. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply clearance, and it remains short - term bearish [5]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs PTA - **Overall Situation**: PTA supply devices are under planned maintenance, polyester load is high, and it is balanced from September to October. It has low valuation, lacks drivers, and short - term follows crude oil fluctuations [46]. - **Device Changes**: In October, many devices are under maintenance. For example, Hengli Dalian 1 was under planned maintenance on the 9th, YS New Materials reduced its load to 50 - 60% on the 7th and restarted on the 13th. YS Hainan, Dahua, and Zhongtai are under maintenance. Sichuan Energy Investment plans to have a two - week maintenance in late October. In November, Dushan, Ineos, and Honggang have maintenance plans [36][37]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, PTA social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) increased to 217 tons, up 3.8 tons, and the market basis is weakly stable [38]. - **Balance Sheet**: From September to October, supply and demand are balanced, and there is inventory accumulation pressure starting from November. It has low valuation, is greatly affected by crude oil and macro factors, and is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [46]. - **Downstream Demand**: After the holiday, the polyester start - up rate was 91.5%, remaining at a high level. The start - up rates of texturing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces rebounded to 81%, 69%, and 78% respectively. After - holiday orders have poor sustainability [46]. - **Seat Net Position**: The net short position of foreign - funded futures company seats continues to increase [47]. PX - **Overall Situation**: PX maintains a dynamic balance in the fourth quarter, with supply expected to increase and demand being average. PXN remains around $220, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [71]. - **Device Changes**: Domestic PX load is 87.4%, and Asian load is 79.9%, both being relatively high. Domestically, Tianjin Petrochemical restarted, Daxie increased its load, and Wushi Petrochemical plans a two - week maintenance on October 14. In Asia, Malaysia Aromatics and Hanwha's 1.13 million - ton device restarted, Idemitsu's 260,000 - ton device is under maintenance. Taiwan FCFC's 720,000 - ton device plans a two - week maintenance, and Saudi Arabia plans a two - week maintenance in late October [67]. - **Balance Sheet**: PX maintains balance in the fourth quarter, with average expectations, lacking drivers, and short - term following oil price fluctuations [71]. - **Price Difference**: The spread between PX outer and inner markets narrows, the 11 - January spread of PX weakens, and TA01 processing fee remains stable at a low level [72]. - **Industrial Chain Spread**: The industrial chain profit weakens slightly. The PTA - crude oil spread is at a low level, PXN rebounds slightly, and PTA processing fee remains low [75]. Ethylene Glycol - **Overall Situation**: Ethylene glycol supply is under planned maintenance, demand load is high, the current situation is okay, but inventory accumulates after the holiday, and the expectation is poor. A significant price drop is unlikely to lead to supply feedback, and it is short - term bearish [119]. - **Device Changes**: The overall load is at a high level of 75%, and the syngas load is 78.8%. CNOOC Shell plans a one - week maintenance, Satellite restarts. Fulaian and Shenghong plan maintenance in late October. Yulong's 900,000 - ton device had a short - term shutdown during the holiday. In coal - chemical industry, Tianye and Shenhua Yulin restarted, Jianyuan and Meijin are under maintenance, and Tianying is expected to shut down until next year. Overseas, Shell in the US and Canada is under maintenance, Taiwan Nanya's 360,000 - ton device is under maintenance, Singapore Aster is under maintenance, and Petronas is shut down [88][104][119]. - **Inventory**: As of October 13, the inventory in East China's main ports is about 541,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 34,000 tons. It is in the process of rising from a historically low level. The arrival volume is high, and the pick - up is average, so inventory is accumulating [116]. - **Balance Sheet**: The pressure on loose balance from September to October is not large, but inventory accumulates rapidly starting from November. The market trades based on expectations, lacks drivers, and is short - term bearish [119]. - **Profit**: Ethylene glycol profit is compressed. Oil - based production remains in loss, and coal - based production has limited loss [92]. - **Downstream Inventory**: Polyester factories' ethylene glycol raw material inventory days are 12.8 days (+0.3), and downstream inventory slightly increases [112].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - PX: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - PTA: Medium-term outlook remains weak [1] - MEG: Reverse spread for 1-5 months [1] Core Viewpoints - PX has a weak unilateral trend, and it is recommended to go long on PXN. The only potential positive factor may come from the aromatics segment. With the improvement of MX blending demand, the PX-MX spread has significantly compressed, and its impact on PX valuation should be monitored. There is still a supply-demand gap for PX [9]. - Hold the 1-5 reverse spread for PTA. The unilateral trend is weak. The cost support for the polyester industry chain is weak, the spot market supply in East China is still sufficient, the new device is about to be put into production, and attention should be paid to filament production cuts and the impact of additional fees on textile and clothing export demand [9]. - MEG has a weak unilateral trend in the context of oversupply. Although there may be potential positives from a possible decline in port arrivals, the overall trend remains weak [10]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Dynamics - Crude oil: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories have increased for three consecutive weeks, and the possibility of renewed peace talks between Russia and Ukraine has led to a decline in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures for the November contract dropped $0.81 to $57.46 per barrel, a -1.39% decline; ICE Brent crude oil futures for the December contract fell $0.85 to $61.06 per barrel, a -1.37% decline. China's INE crude oil futures for the 2512 contract rose 0.7 to 445.6 yuan per barrel, but dropped 8.5 to 437.1 yuan per barrel in after-hours trading [4]. - PX: The price of naphtha was weak at the end of the session. The current estimated price of November MOPJ is $542 per ton CFR. Affected by the contract rollover, today's PX price closed lower. One lot of December Asian spot was traded at $786. At the end of the session, the physical December PX was negotiated at $786/805, with a sell-off at $790 in January, and a buy order at +1.5 for the December/January rollover. Today's PX valuation is $786 per ton, down $1 from yesterday. Market participants remain cautious about PX spot prices and demand due to the sluggish downstream PTA activity [4]. - PTA: In mainland China, the 3.6 million-ton capacity of Yisheng New Materials has reached full load, and the capacities of Sanfangxiang's 3.2 million tons and Weilian Chemical's 2.5 million tons have been increased. As of Thursday, the PTA load is at 76.7%. According to the calculation of PTA daily production/(domestic PTA capacity/365), the current PTA operating rate is around 82.6% [6]. - MEG: As of October 16, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China is 77.16% (a 2.08% increase from the previous period), among which the operating load of ethylene glycol produced by oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation (syngas) is 81.89% (a 3.06% increase from the previous period) [6]. - Polyester: This week, the operating load of major domestic polyester industrial yarn manufacturers has remained basically stable. As of now, the overall theoretical operating load of domestic polyester industrial yarn is around 75%. This week, the changes in polyester device operations are mainly load adjustments, with a slight decrease in polyester filament and a moderate increase in bottle chips. Overall, the polyester load has fluctuated slightly. As of Thursday, the preliminary estimate of the polyester load in mainland China is around 91.4%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are differentiated today, with an average sales rate of around 60% as of 3:45 pm. The sales of some factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 120%, 55%, 100%, etc. The sales of direct-spun polyester staple fiber have improved today, with an average sales rate of 79% as of 3:00 pm, and the sales of some factories are 120%, 60%, etc. [7] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of p-xylene, PTA, and MEG is -1, indicating a weak outlook [8] Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: The closing prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and SC yesterday were 6376, 4456, 4089, 6092, and 445.9 respectively, with changes of 64, 34, 32, 42, and -0.1, and percentage changes of 1.01%, 0.77%, 0.79%, 0.69%, and -0.02% [2]. - Spot: The prices of PX CFR China, PTA in East China, MEG spot, naphtha MOPJ, and Dated Brent yesterday were $786.17 per ton, 4360 yuan per ton, 4126 yuan per ton, $545.5 per ton, and $61.78 per barrel respectively, with changes of -0.5, 35, 4, -3.5, and -0.83 [2]. - Spot Processing Fees: The prices of PX-naphtha spread, PTA processing fee, short fiber processing fee, bottle chip processing fee, and MOPJ naphtha-Dubai crude oil spread yesterday were 221.42, 203.52, 277.04, 107.66, and -4.34 respectively, with changes of -1.83, 38.34, -20.42, -8.47, and 0 [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the trends of various energy - chemical futures, including PX, PTA, MEG, etc., and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on factors such as supply - demand, cost, and market sentiment [2][11]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 PX, PTA, MEG - **PX**: Mid - term trend is weak. Aromatic hydrocarbon valuation cost support is weak, but there may be a positive impact from the improvement of MX blending demand. Suggest to focus on long PXN [11]. - **PTA**: Hold 1 - 5 reverse spreads. The unilateral trend is weak. Cost support is weak, supply is sufficient, and new devices are about to be put into production. Pay attention to polyester filament production cuts and the impact of additional shipping fees on textile exports [11]. - **MEG**: The supply is in surplus, and the unilateral trend is weak. Although there may be potential positive factors from port arrivals, the overall supply is still sufficient [12]. 3.2 Rubber - The rubber market is expected to move in a range. The trend strength is neutral [13][14]. 3.3 Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, there is a rebound, but the medium - term trend is under pressure. The rebound is due to cost support and event - driven factors, while the fundamental pressure remains large [17][19]. 3.4 Asphalt - The asphalt market has a flat shipment situation. The trend is weak, with a decline in production, a decrease in factory and social inventories, and a weakening of cost support from crude oil [20][21][33]. 3.5 LLDPE - The LLDPE trend is weak. Affected by factors such as increased supply, geopolitical situation, and trade issues, the market inventory pressure is large, and the cost support from crude oil is limited [34][35]. 3.6 PP - The PP trend remains weak. Trade wars, falling oil prices, and high supply suppress the market price, and the short - term situation is difficult to reverse fundamentally [37][38]. 3.7 Caustic Soda - The rebound height of caustic soda is limited. Although the spot pressure in Shandong is temporarily relieved, the alumina production reduction expectation suppresses the valuation height [42]. 3.8 Pulp - The pulp market is expected to move in a range. The price is affected by factors such as futures decline, high inventory, and weak downstream demand [46][49]. 3.9 Glass - The glass original sheet price is stable. The market trading atmosphere is light, and the downstream purchases at low prices. The futures market has a slight improvement in production and sales [51][52]. 3.10 Methanol - The methanol market is expected to move in a range. The port market price is strong due to inventory reduction, while the inland market is weak [54][57]. 3.11 Urea - In the short term, it moves in a range, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The enterprise inventory is rising, the spot trading is weak, and the export increment may not be able to make up for the weak domestic demand [59][61]. 3.12 Styrene - Stop loss on short positions. The short - term trend is mainly range - bound. The expected production reduction of pure benzene in October turns the inventory accumulation expectation into a de - stocking expectation [62][63]. 3.13 Soda Ash - The soda ash spot market changes little. The market is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with supply at a high level and downstream demand stable [64]. 3.14 LPG and Propylene - **LPG**: Due to the expectation of supply shortage, the price has risen significantly. - **Propylene**: There is a rebound supported by cost, but the supply - demand pressure still exists [66]. 3.15 PVC - The PVC trend is weak. The market inventory pressure is large, the supply is high, the domestic demand is weak, and the export growth may slow down [73]. 3.16 Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Fuel Oil**: It moves in a narrow range, and the short - term weakness persists. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It continues to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [76]. 3.17 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The container shipping index (European line) is in a range - bound market, affected by factors such as freight rates, shipping capacity, and exchange rates [78].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyester raw material market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend due to weakening cost support and emerging inventory pressures. The polyester industry chain is expected to maintain a weak and volatile state under the pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and inventory backlog" [2][5]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Daily Market Summary - **PX & PTA**: On October 15, the PX main contract closed at 6,312.0 yuan/ton, down 0.41% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -33.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,422.0 yuan/ton, also down 0.41%, with a basis of -32.0 yuan/ton. The supply side has marginal contraction but long - term pressure. The demand side shows weak traditional peak - season demand, and the inventory is starting to accumulate [3][4]. - **Polyester**: On October 15, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,050.0 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous trading day. Terminal demand is weakly stable but shows no obvious improvement. High inventory across the industry chain strongly suppresses prices, and the polyester industry chain is expected to remain weakly volatile [5]. 2. Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The main contract price of PX futures decreased by 0.41% to 6,312 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 4.51%. The PX spot price in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price increased by 0.93% [6]. - **PTA**: The main contract price of PTA futures decreased by 0.41% to 4,422 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 16.71%. The PTA spot price in the Chinese main port (CFR) remained unchanged. The PTA import profit increased by 0.25% [6]. - **Short - fiber**: The main contract price of short - fiber futures decreased by 0.17% to 6,050 yuan/ton, and the trading volume decreased by 15.90%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.24% [6]. - **Other Products**: The price of the Brent crude oil main contract increased by 0.31%, and the price of the WTI main contract decreased by 0.49%. Some products such as CFR Japanese naphtha and ethylene glycol remained unchanged in price [6]. 3. Industry Dynamics and Interpretation - **Macro - dynamics**: On October 15, some officials expected two more interest rate cuts by the end of the year. The Fed Chair Powell mentioned issues such as tight money - market liquidity and employment risks. The most crowded trade shifted from long US stock giants to long gold. OPEC maintained its global crude oil demand growth forecast and expected a significant narrowing of the supply gap next year [8]. - **Supply - demand (Demand)**: On October 15, the total trading volume in the Light Textile City was 776.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.08%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 607.0 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 172.0 million meters [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The PTA market is experiencing a decline due to falling costs, sufficient spot supply, poor downstream polyester filament sales, and weak market confidence. The spot basis has weakened. [2] - The ethylene glycol (MEG) futures are oscillating in a low - range. The spot price in Zhangjiagang has minor adjustments, and the basis negotiation has slightly weakened. [2] - With the approaching end of the polyester peak season and the weakening of the crude oil fundamentals, the polyester market is expected to operate weakly. [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data Changes - INE crude oil price dropped from 448.6 yuan/barrel on October 14, 2025, to 443.7 yuan/barrel on October 15, 2025, a decrease of 4.90 yuan/barrel. [2] - PTA - SC spread increased from 1180.0 yuan to 1197.6 yuan, a rise of 17.61 yuan; PTA/SC ratio rose from 1.3620 to 1.3714, an increase of 0.0095. [2] - CFR China PX price increased from 779 to 787, a rise of 8; PX - naphtha spread increased from 212 to 234, a rise of 22. [2] - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4440 yuan/ton to 4422 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.0 yuan/ton; PTA现货价格 dropped from 4380 yuan/ton to 4325 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55.0 yuan/ton. [2] - PTA现货加工费 dropped from 188.2 yuan/ton to 106.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81.3 yuan/ton; 盘面加工费 dropped from 263.2 yuan/ton to 203.8 yuan/ton, a decrease of 59.3 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG主力期价 dropped from 4061 yuan/ton to 4057 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.0 yuan/ton; MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (106.93) yuan/ton to (107.12) yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. [2] - MEG内盘 dropped from 4145 to 4114, a decrease of 31.0. [2] - POY150D/48F remained unchanged at 6520; POY现金流 increased from 137 to 194, a rise of 57.0. [2] - FDY150D/96F dropped from 6710 to 6670, a decrease of 40.0; FDY现金流 increased from (173) to (156), an increase of 17.0. [2] - DTY150D/48F remained unchanged at 7760; DTY现金流 increased from 177 to 234, a rise of 57.0. [2] - 长丝产销 increased from 46% to 53%, a rise of 7%. [2] - 1.4D直纺涤短 dropped from 6385 to 6375, a decrease of 10; 涤短现金流 increased from 352 to 399, a rise of 47.0. [2] - 短纤产销 increased from 44% to 52%, a rise of 8%. [2] - 半光切片 dropped from 5550 to 5500, a decrease of 50.0; 切片现金流 increased from 67 to 74, a rise of 7.0. [2] - 切片产销 increased from 80% to 129%, a rise of 49%. [2] Industry Chain开工情况 - PX开工率 decreased from 86.21% to 84.62%, a decrease of 1.59%. [2] - PTA开工率 remained unchanged at 77.58%. [2] - MEG开工率 increased from 64.06% to 164.06%, a rise of 100.00%. [2] - 聚酯负荷 remained unchanged at 89.38%. [2] Industry Background and Future Impact - A new cracking ethylene plant in a Shandong refinery was put into operation in mid - September, involving a pure benzene production capacity of about 230,000 tons/year, toluene 130,000 tons/year, xylene 60,000 tons/year, 1.5 million tons of ethylene, and a supporting 800,000 - ton EG is expected to be put into operation in October. [2] - The spread between MX and naphtha narrowed from 88 US dollars/ton last week to 85 US dollars/ton, and the spread between PX and MX dropped to 132 US dollars, continuing to support the short - process profit of PX. [2] - The US - Asia MX arbitrage window expanded to 185 US dollars, but there is no news of South Korea shipping to the US. [2] - Domestic large - scale PTA plants are undergoing rotation inspections, resulting in a decline in domestic PTA production. [2] - The ethylene glycol inventory in East China ports remains at a low level, the weekly port arrivals are still limited, the overseas ethylene glycol imports are expected to decline, and the domestic plant commissioning is putting continuous pressure on the ethylene glycol price. [2] Device Maintenance - A 1.25 - million - ton PTA plant in South China is currently restarting after shutting down around September 23, and another 1.1 - million - ton PTA plant has increased its load after operating at a low load last week. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The polyester market continues to operate under pressure due to the marginal weakening of demand and inventory pressure [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On October 11, the PX main contract closed at 6,504.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, with a basis of -84.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 0.0 yuan/ton, down 1.09% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 0.0 yuan/ton [2]. - On the supply side, the PX plant operating rate remains relatively stable, but the expected commissioning of new plants and unplanned maintenance of some Asian factories create a mix of long and short factors, and the potential elasticity of the supply side may break the balance. The PTA industry load has rebounded to a relatively high level, and the short - term stock supply pressure has not been significantly relieved with the co - existence of plant restarts and load reductions, but the delay in the commissioning of new production capacity may ease the expectation of loose supply in the fourth quarter [2]. - On the demand side, although the polyester operating rate is at a high level, the inventory pressure of grey fabrics in the weaving end is transmitted to the polyester link. The lack of sustainability of new orders may restrict the replenishment demand for polyester raw materials. The trading volume of the Textile City has declined from the previous high, and the marginal weakening of the resilience of overseas orders and the seasonal weakening of domestic demand pose a test to the sustainability of the positive feedback in the industrial chain, and the support from the demand side may gradually decline [2]. - On the inventory side, the absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still in the low range in recent years, but the visible inventory has accumulated continuously in the past two weeks, and the weakening basis reflects insufficient spot drive. In the environment of compressed processing fees, the inventory contradiction in the industrial chain is transferred to the middle reaches. Attention should be paid to the impact of the manifestation of hidden inventory on the circulating supply, and the turning point of the inventory structure may be a signal of the price's phased inflection point [3]. 3.1.2 Polyester - On October 11, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,200.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,365.0 yuan/ton, down 5.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 165.0 yuan/ton [4]. - The MA15 trading volume of the Textile City in the demand side fluctuated narrowly in the range of 857 - 862 million meters, not continuing the upward trend in the peak season, indicating insufficient downstream replenishment momentum. The inventory structure has prominent contradictions: the inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.58 days, significantly higher than the 5 - year average of 4.96 days, becoming the main source of inventory accumulation pressure. The polyester filament varieties show obvious differentiation, with the POY inventory of 13.6 days significantly lower than the average of 20.4 days, while the FDY/DTY is slightly higher than the historical average. It is expected that the industrial chain will continue to operate weakly. The decline of crude - oil - related varieties on the cost side and the high inventory of polyester staple fiber may drive polyester factories to increase production cut - back efforts to balance supply and demand [4]. 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: On October 13, 2025, the PX futures main - contract price was 6,458 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan or 0.71% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 8,467 to 109,201 lots, an increase of 8.41%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 12,852 to 49,851 lots, a decrease of 20.50%. The South Korea FOB price of PX spot was 767 US dollars/ton, down 7 US dollars or 0.90% from October 10. The PX basis was - 120 yuan/ton, down 36 yuan or 42.86% from October 10 [5]. - **PTA**: On October 13, 2025, the PTA futures main - contract price was 4,510 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan or 0.53% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume increased by 9,456 to 603,489 lots, an increase of 1.59%, and the main - contract open interest increased by 37,917 to 1,096,302 lots, an increase of 3.58%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread was - 54 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or 3.85% from October 10 [5]. - **Short - fiber**: On October 13, 2025, the short - fiber futures main - contract price was 6,166 yuan/ton, down 34 yuan or 0.55% from October 10. The main - contract trading volume decreased by 43,754 to 119,500 lots, a decrease of 26.80%, and the main - contract open interest decreased by 28,801 to 47,106 lots, a decrease of 37.94%. The PF 1 - 5 spread was - 4 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan or 85.71% from October 10 [5]. - **Other products**: The US crude oil main - contract price was 59.14 US dollars/barrel on October 13, up 0.9 US dollars or 1.55% from October 10. The ethylene glycol price was 4,060 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or 3.10% from October 10 [5]. 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macro Dynamics - On October 13, Trump's list of candidates for the Fed chair has been narrowed to five. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the September CPI report at 8:30 am on October 24 (8:30 pm Beijing time). Trump said that if the Russia - Ukraine conflict cannot be resolved, the US may supply "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine [7]. - On October 10, the central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo will start building gold reserves when the gold price soars. Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts: Williams supports further interest - rate cuts, while Barr believes that interest - rate cuts should be cautious, and Kashkari basically agrees with Barr [7]. 3.3.2 Supply - Demand - Demand - On October 11, the total trading volume of the Textile City was 9.04 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The trading volume of long - fiber fabrics was 6.75 million meters, and that of short - fiber fabrics was 2.31 million meters [8].

投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】31号 ITG国贸期货 | | | | | 聚酯数据日报 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 国贸期货研究院 | | 投资咨询号:Z0017251 | 2025/10/14 | | | | 能源化工研究中心 | 陈胜 | | 从业资格号:F3066728 | | | 指标 | | 2025/10/10 2025/10/13 | 变动值 | 行情综述 | | | INE原油(元/桶) | 461.9 | 453. 7 | -8. 20 | 成交情况: PTA:原油并未收回上周五的跌幅,利空PTA市场。下 | | SC | PTA-SC(元/陣) | 1177.3 | 1212.9 | 35. 59 | 游涤纶长丝产销53%,需求继续上升的空间有限。PTA | | | | | | | 现货充足,华东330万吨PTA装置计划10月14日满负荷 | | | PTA/SC(比价) | 1. 3507 | 1. 3679 | 0. 0171 | | | PX | CFR中国PX | 798 | 791 | -7 | | | ...

·PTA现货价格 - MEG内盘 基差 -- PTA现货价格 -- PTA主力期货价格 8000 - 1700 9200 1500 7000 1300 8200 1100 6000 7200 900 700 5000 6200 500 5200 4000 300 100 4200 3000 -100 3200 -300 2000 2023- 2023- 2023- 2025- 2025- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2024-12 2025-02 2025-04 2025-06 2024-10 2025-08 05 09 01 02 09 01 05 09 01 数据图表 800 现货加工区间 -- 盘面加工区间 POY现金流 ·DTY现金流 -FDY现金流 800 涤短现金流 切片现金 600' 700 400 600 500 200 400 0 300 -200 200 -400 100 0 -600 2025- 2025- 2023- 2023- 2024- 2024- 2024- 2025- 2023- 02 09 01 02 09 01 05 0მ 01 -800 投资咨询业务资 ...