1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Despite the oil price correction, the PX market remains strong due to increased supply elasticity in the short - term [2] - The PTA market faces supply - side pressure in the long - run, and its demand may be negatively affected by weak terminal orders [3] - The polyester market shows a weak recovery in terminal demand, but there are concerns about inventory accumulation suppressing profit margins [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA&PX - On August 26, the PX主力合约 closed at 6994.0 yuan/ton, up 0.34% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 162.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4870.0 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, with a basis of 10.0 yuan/ton [3] - Cost - end: On August 26, the Brent oil主力合约 closed at 68.2 dollars/barrel, and WTI at 64.74 dollars/barrel [3] - Demand - end: On August 26, the total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 547.0 million meters, and the 15 - day average transaction was 514.93 million meters [3] - Supply - end: The PX supply side faces loosening pressure, and the cost support weakens during the international oil price decline. The PTA supply side has short - term positive factors but long - term pressure [3] - Demand - end: The downstream polyester start - up is at a low level, and the terminal order improvement is limited. The contradiction between high polyester start - up and weak terminals remains [3] - Inventory - end: The current PTA social inventory is decreasing, but it may turn to inventory accumulation if demand does not improve significantly [4] 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 26, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6622.0 yuan/ton, up 0.39% from the previous trading day. The East China market spot price was 6585.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5] - Supply - side: From August 18 to August 26, PX and PTA futures prices showed an upward trend, with PX rising 234 yuan/ton (+3.46%) and PTA rising 124 yuan/ton (+2.61%) [5] - Demand - side: The 15 - day moving average trading volume of the China Light Textile City increased from 482.73 million meters to 514.93 million meters (+6.67%), indicating a weak recovery in terminal demand [5] - Inventory - side: The polyester short - fiber inventory is 6.65 days, higher than the five - year average of 4.96 days (+34.1%), while the polyester filament inventories are generally lower than historical averages [5] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased on August 26 compared to the previous day [6] - PX spot: The China main port CFR price remained unchanged, while the South Korea FOB price increased slightly [6] - PTA futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, and the basis decreased [6] - PTA spot: The China main port CFR price remained unchanged [6] - Short - fiber futures: The主力合约 price, trading volume, and open interest all increased, and the basis decreased significantly [6] - Short - fiber spot: The East China market mainstream price remained unchanged [6] - Other industrial chain prices: Most prices remained stable, with slight changes in some products such as polyester bottle chips [6][7] - Processing spreads: The naphtha processing spread increased, while the PTA processing spread decreased slightly [7] - Light Textile City trading volume: The total volume increased, with short - fiber fabric trading volume rising significantly and long - fiber fabric trading volume decreasing [7] - Industrial chain load rates: The load rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7] - Inventory days: The inventory days of polyester short - fiber, POY, FDY, and DTY all decreased [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - Multiple statements were made regarding the Fed's possible interest - rate cuts and the geopolitical situation, which may affect the market sentiment [8] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 26, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 547.0 million meters, a 1.11% increase from the previous day [9] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts related to PX, PTA, short - fiber futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, processing profits, and trading volumes [10][12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand pattern of polyester raw materials has improved, and with cost support, prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain relatively strong in the short term, but the fulfillment of peak - season demand needs to be monitored [1][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary PTA & PX - On August 25, the PX main contract closed at 6,970.0 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 147.0 yuan/ton. The PTA main contract closed at 4,862.0 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 8.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil main contract closed at 67.26 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 63.77 US dollars/barrel. The total transaction volume of the Light Textile City was 541.0 million meters, with a 15 - day average transaction of 504.67 million meters [2] - On the supply side, PX device load has increased due to the weakening demand for aromatic hydrocarbon blending oil, and there may be复产 pressure on Asian devices in the fourth quarter. PTA has unexpected maintenance currently, but there is an expectation of restart and output increase in September. On the demand side, weaving orders and Light Textile City transactions have seasonally improved, but the year - on - year growth rate is still low, and the sustainability of terminal orders needs verification. The high polyester operating rate depends on speculative restocking caused by raw material price fluctuations. On the inventory side, PTA factory inventory has reached a high level, and the deep basis discount reflects loose spot circulation. Downstream polyester raw material inventory days are in a neutral range, and there is a risk of implicit inventory turning into explicit inventory [3] Polyester - On August 25, the short - fiber main contract closed at 6,596.0 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,585.0 yuan/ton, down 15.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of - 11.0 yuan/ton [3] - From August 15 to August 25, PX and PTA prices both increased, indicating stronger cost support or tighter supply. The Light Textile City MA15 transaction volume fluctuated between 480 - 505 million meters, showing weak terminal demand. The inventory pressure of the polyester industry chain is mainly concentrated in the short - fiber segment. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the fulfillment of peak - season demand needs attention [4] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - For PX, on August 25, the main contract price was 6,970 yuan/ton, up 0.06% from August 22; the main contract trading volume decreased by 8.85%; the main contract position increased by 3.14%. The CFR price at the Chinese main port and the FOB price in South Korea remained unchanged. The PX basis decreased by 2.80% [6] - For PTA, on August 25, the main contract price was 4,862 yuan/ton, down 0.12% from August 22; the main contract trading volume decreased by 7.83%; the main contract position increased by 2.33%. The CFR price at the Chinese main port remained unchanged. The PTA basis increased by 300.00%. The PTA 1 - 5 spread decreased by 72.73%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 71.43%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 70.00%. The PTA import profit increased by 1.73% [6] - For short - fiber, on August 25, the main contract price was 6,596 yuan/ton, down 0.27% from August 22; the main contract trading volume decreased by 16.55%; the main contract position decreased by 2.75%. The spot price in the East China market decreased by 0.23%. The PF basis increased by 21.43%. The PF 1 - 5 spread increased by 32.56%, the 5 - 9 spread increased by 2.78%, and the 9 - 1 spread decreased by 55.17% [6] - Other industrial chain prices: The prices of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, CFR Japanese naphtha, ethylene glycol, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained mostly unchanged, with only the polyester bottle chip price decreasing by 0.33% [6] - Processing spreads: The PTA processing spread increased by 4.78%, while the processing spreads of other products remained unchanged. The total trading volume of the Light Textile City decreased by 18.89%, the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics decreased by 10.61%, and the trading volume of short - fiber fabrics decreased by 46.20%. The operating rates of PTA factories, polyester factories, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged [7] - Inventory days: From August 14 to August 21, the inventory days of polyester short - fiber decreased by 8.28%, polyester POY decreased by 14.29%, polyester FDY decreased by 2.58%, and polyester DTY decreased by 1.42% [7] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 25, there were various statements from different figures regarding the Fed's interest - rate policy, including views from Harmaak, Trump, Powell, etc. Also, the situation in the Russia - Ukraine conflict may push up the intensity of the battlefield. The National Bureau of Statistics reported that the prices of 27 important production materials in the circulation field rose in mid - August [8] - On August 22, there were statements from potential Fed successor Brad, data on the US S&P Global Composite PMI, initial jobless claims, and continuing jobless claims. The US Department of Justice planned to investigate Fed Governor Cook, and most Fed officials were cautious about interest - rate cuts [8][9] Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 25, the total trading volume of the Light Textile City was 541.0 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 18.89%, including 455.0 million meters of long - fiber fabric trading volume and 85.0 million meters of short - fiber fabric trading volume [10] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report provides multiple data charts, including those related to PX and PTA main - contract futures and basis, spot prices, capacity utilization rates, futures spreads, processing profits, industrial chain operating rates, polyester product sales and production situations, Light Textile City trading volume moving averages, and polyester product inventory days [11][13][15][18][22][23][25][27][28][29]

Core Viewpoint - The polyester sector has experienced a rebound since August 15, driven by multiple factors including stable oil and coal prices, low inventory levels of key raw materials, and an approaching demand peak season [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent price increase in the polyester sector is supported by stable oil and coal prices, which have rebounded, and the sector's long-term low valuation limits further downside potential [1]. - The inventory levels of key raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG are currently low, which, combined with the upcoming demand peak season, provides strong upward price elasticity if unexpected positive factors arise [1]. - The demand side is transitioning from a low to a high season, with weaving operating rates recovering to 63% and polyester operating rates increasing to 89.4% [2]. Group 2: Supply Chain Insights - The polyester industry is currently in a phase of orderly expansion, with upstream production of PX and short fibers being paused, while PTA and bottle-grade PET continue to see rapid capacity growth [2][3]. - The overall profit levels in the polyester supply chain remain low, with profits concentrating in the upstream due to differing production rhythms across the supply chain [2][3]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The current trading logic in the polyester sector reflects a contradiction between strong realities and weak expectations, with concerns about demand being dragged down by earlier "export rush" activities [3]. - Short-term expectations suggest that the polyester sector may experience a pattern of easy price increases but difficult declines, while long-term price strength will depend on cost stability, supply-demand dynamics, and macroeconomic sentiment [3]. - Analysts predict a generally strong price trend for polyester until September, with a focus on valuation changes and the actual impact of supply-side factors thereafter [3].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2) Core View of the Report - PTA: Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and port inventories increased by 20,000 tons this week. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restricted further increase in PX output. The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, driving the recovery of PX load. Polyester downstream load remained at around 88%, and polyester factory inventories were optimistic. Polyester production cuts were mainly in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With improved sales and inventory reduction, and PTA price recovery, the weaving end load increased slightly [2]. - Ethylene glycol: Coal prices recovered, leading to an increase in ethylene glycol prices. Macro - sentiment weakened slightly, and the chemical industry followed the downward trend of bulk commodities. Overseas ethylene glycol plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, was continuously postponed, which affected the market outlook and boosted ethylene glycol prices. The future arrival volume of ethylene glycol decreased. Polyester inventories were in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price dropped from 486.5 yuan/barrel on August 18, 2025, to 484.2 yuan/barrel on August 19, 2025, a decrease of 2.30 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC increased from 1210.6 yuan/ton to 1215.3 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.71 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3424 to 1.3454, an increase of 0.0030. CFR China PX rose from 833 to 835, an increase of 2. PX - naphtha spread increased from 261 to 264, an increase of 4 [2]. - PTA主力期价 dropped from 4746 yuan/ton to 4734 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12 yuan/ton. PTA spot price rose from 4670 yuan/ton to 4690 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 184.7 yuan/ton to 176.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.1 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee decreased from 260.7 yuan/ton to 235.6 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25.1 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from (12) to (8), an increase of 4. PTA warehouse receipts decreased from 41,907 to 37,349, a decrease of 4558 [2]. - MEG主力期价 rose from 4346 yuan/ton to 4384 yuan/ton, an increase of 38 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha decreased from (86.31) to (86.50), a decrease of 0.2. MEG domestic price rose from 4441 yuan/ton to 4458 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton. The main basis increased from 86 to 92, an increase of 6 [2]. Industry Chain Start - up Situation - PX start - up rate remained at 80.38%. PTA start - up rate decreased from 77.67% to 75.09%, a decrease of 2.58%. MEG start - up rate increased from 56.93% to 59.36%, an increase of 2.43%. Polyester load (POY150D/48F) remained at 87.30% [2]. Product Price and Cash Flow - POY150D/48F price dropped from 6770 to 6750, a decrease of 20. POY cash flow decreased from 39 to (3), a decrease of 42. FDY150D/96F price remained at 7100. FDY cash flow decreased from (131) to (153), a decrease of 22. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7955. DTY cash flow decreased from 24 to 2, a decrease of 22. Long - filament sales decreased from 46% to 51%, a decrease of 5% [2]. - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester short - fiber price rose from 6550 to 6555, an increase of 5. Polyester short - fiber cash flow decreased from 169 to 152, a decrease of 17. Short - fiber sales increased from 40% to 53%, an increase of 13% [2]. - Semi - bright chip price rose from 5800 to 5805, an increase of 5. Chip cash flow decreased from (31) to (48), a decrease of 17. Chip sales increased from 70% to 86%, an increase of 16% [2]. Device Maintenance - A 7.2 - million - ton PTA device of a supplier in East China reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2) Core Viewpoints - PTA: Domestic PTA production decreased slightly, and port inventory increased by 20,000 tons this week. The spread between PX and naphtha expanded to $260, and the weak benzene price restricted the further increase of PX production. The spread between PX and MX recovered to around $140, and the repair of short - process profit was the main driving force for the recovery of PX load. Polyester downstream load remained at around 88%, and the inventory of polyester factories was optimistic. The main production - reducing factories in polyester were concentrated in short - fiber and bottle - chip varieties. With the recent improvement in sales and inventory reduction, and the recovery of PTA price, the load of the weaving end increased slightly [2]. - Ethylene Glycol (MEG): Coal prices recovered, and MEG prices also recovered. The macro - sentiment weakened slightly, and the chemical industry followed the weakening sentiment of commodities. Overseas MEG plant maintenance, especially in Saudi Arabia, was continuously postponed, which might have a significant impact on the market outlook and boosted MEG prices. The later arrival volume of MEG decreased. Polyester inventory was in good condition, and the downstream weaving load increased [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Quotes - INE crude oil price increased from 486.3 yuan/barrel on August 15th to 486.5 yuan/barrel on August 18th, with an increase of 0.2 yuan/barrel. PTA - SC spread increased from 1182.0 yuan/ton to 1210.6 yuan/ton, with an increase of 28.55 yuan/ton. PTA/SC ratio increased from 1.3345 to 1.3424, with an increase of 0.0079. CFR China PX price increased from 827 to 833, with an increase of 6. PX - naphtha spread increased from 256 to 261, with an increase of 5 [2]. - PTA主力期价 increased from 4716 yuan/ton to 4746 yuan/ton, with an increase of 30 yuan/ton. PTA spot price increased from 4660 to 4670, with an increase of 10 yuan/ton. Spot processing fee decreased from 214.0 yuan/ton to 184.7 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 29.2 yuan/ton. Disk processing fee increased from 260.0 yuan/ton to 260.7 yuan/ton, with an increase of 0.8 yuan/ton. PTA仓单数量 decreased from 44709 to 41907, with a decrease of 2802 [2]. - MEG主力期价 decreased from 4369 yuan/ton to 4346 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 23 yuan/ton. MEG - naphtha spread decreased from (91.73) yuan/ton to (91.92) yuan/ton, with a decrease of 0.2 yuan/ton. MEG内盘 decreased from 4462 to 4441, with a decrease of 21 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Chain Starting Conditions - PX starting rate remained at 80.38%. PTA starting rate remained at 77.67%. MEG starting rate increased from 55.22% to 56.93%, with an increase of 1.71%. Polyester load increased from 86.88% to 87.30%, with an increase of 0.42% [2]. Product Performance - In polyester filament, POY150D/48F price remained at 6770, POY cash flow decreased from 41 to 39, with a decrease of 2. FDY150D/96F price increased from 7095 to 7100, with an increase of 5. FDY cash flow increased from (134) to (131), with an increase of 3. DTY150D/48F price remained at 7955, DTY cash flow decreased from 26 to 24, with a decrease of 2. Filament sales increased from 36% to 46%, with an increase of 10% [2]. - In polyester short - fiber, 1.4D direct - spun polyester short - fiber price decreased from 6555 to 6550, with a decrease of 5. Polyester short - fiber cash flow decreased from 176 to 169, with a decrease of 7. Short - fiber sales decreased from 49% to 40%, with a decrease of 9% [2]. - In polyester chips, semi - bright chip price increased from 5785 to 5800, with an increase of 15. Chip cash flow increased from (44) to (31), with an increase of 13. Chip sales increased from 54% to 70%, with an increase of 16% [2]. Device Maintenance An East - China supplier's 7.2 - million - ton PTA device reduced its load to 80 - 90% last night, and the recovery time depends on raw material logistics [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - PTA may shift from a cost-driven logic to a demand-driven narrative, and attention should be paid to demand inflection point signals [1] - The polyester chain may break away from cost constraints and shift towards a narrative of increasing demand in the short term, but there is a risk that the peak-season demand may not materialize [7] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - On August 18, the PX main contract closed at 6,760.0 yuan/ton, up 1.08% from the previous trading day, with a basis of -179.0 yuan/ton; the PTA main contract closed at 4,746.0 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, with a basis of -96.0 yuan/ton [2] - On the cost side, the Brent crude oil main contract closed at 66.13 US dollars/barrel, and WTI at 62.29 US dollars/barrel; on the demand side, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 5.09 million meters, and the 15-day average turnover was 4.8273 million meters [2] - The PX plant operating rate remains high with no large-scale maintenance plans; some PTA plants have restart expectations, and the overall operating rate may increase month-on-month, but some factories may have the intention to reduce production due to low processing fees [3] - The polyester industry's operating rate remains stable at a high level, short-term weaving orders are seasonally increasing, and the Light Textile City's transaction data has exceeded the 15-day average, indicating that terminal demand improvement supports PTA's rigid demand [4] - The absolute value of PTA factory inventory is still at a medium to high level, social inventory pressure has not been significantly relieved, and the weak spot basis reflects abundant market circulation supplies [5] 3.1.2 Polyester - On August 18, the short fiber main contract closed at 6,462.0 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from the previous trading day; the spot price in the East China market was 6,475.0 yuan/ton, up 10.0 yuan/ton, with a basis of 13.0 yuan/ton [6] - From August 8 to 18, PX futures prices first fell and then rose, while PTA futures prices fluctuated upward, reflecting enhanced cost support and a tightening supply pattern [6] - The MA15 of the Light Textile City's trading volume slightly declined during August 8 - 18, and downstream procurement intensity weakened marginally but remained stable overall [6] - The current inventory of polyester staple fiber is 7.25 days, higher than the five-year average; among polyester filament, POY inventory is 16.1 days, significantly lower than the historical average, FDY inventory is 23.3 days, slightly higher than the average, and DTY inventory is 28.2 days, close to the average [6] 3.2 Industrial Chain Price Monitoring - PX futures: The main contract price increased by 1.08% to 6,760 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased by 6.58%, and open interest increased by 2.01% [8] - PTA futures: The main contract price rose 0.64% to 4,746 yuan/ton, trading volume decreased by 1.25%, and open interest increased by 0.08% [8] - Short fiber futures: The main contract price increased by 0.97% to 6,462 yuan/ton, trading volume increased by 8.89%, and open interest decreased by 4.69% [8] - Other products: Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased slightly, while most other products' prices remained stable or changed slightly [8][9] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 18, Fed's Daly said waiting for more data, and the number of interest rate cuts this year is uncertain; Goolsbee said the latest PPI and CPI inflation data are worrying, and interest rate cuts may be possible if there are signs of no inflation spiral [10] - On August 18, Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chen Maobo said that a plan for Hong Kong to develop an international gold trading center will be announced this year [10] - On August 15, the US July PPI annual rate reached a high since February, and the monthly rate was the largest since June 2022, leading to a reduction in Fed interest rate cut bets [10] - On August 15, US Treasury Secretary Yellen said the US will retain gold as a store of value, stop selling Bitcoin holdings, and did not call for a 150 - basis - point interest rate cut [10] - On August 15, the usage of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool reached a new low since April 2021, and Fed officials refuted the expectation of a large - scale interest rate cut in September [10][11] 3.3.2 Supply - Demand (Demand) - On August 18, the total turnover of the Light Textile City was 5.09 million meters, a month - on - month decrease of 19.08%, with 4.04 million meters of long - fiber fabric turnover and 1.03 million meters of short - fiber fabric turnover [12] 3.4 Industrial Chain Data Charts - The report includes charts on PX and PTA futures and spot prices, basis, capacity utilization, futures spreads, processing profits, industrial chain load rates, polyester product sales, and inventory days [13][15][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of PX, PTA, MEG, PF, and PR futures are expected to move in a range-bound manner this week, with suggestions of waiting and watching for arbitrage and double - selling options [6]. - The polyester industry shows mixed performance, with开工 rising slightly and processing fees recovering at a low level, but most products are still in a loss - making state except for short - fiber and filament [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **PX&PTA**: The PX futures price fluctuates, the spot floating price weakens, and the basis and monthly spread compress. Supply is on the rise, and profits of long - and short - process plants are good. For trading, the unilateral strategy is range - bound, arbitrage is on hold, and double - selling options are recommended [6]. - **PTA**: Supply and demand both increase, social inventory rises, the monthly spread weakens, and the basis strengthens slightly. In the short term, processing fees are undervalued, and there are many maintenance devices. In the medium term, supply will increase. The trading strategies are the same as those for PX [6]. - **MEG**: Supply and demand increase, port inventory rises, the monthly spread weakens, and the basis strengthens. The domestic maintenance devices are few, and the开工 rate is rising. The trading strategies are range - bound for the unilateral position, waiting and watching for arbitrage, and double - selling options [6]. - **PF**: Supply and demand increase, inventory accumulates slightly, and processing fees fluctuate at a low level. The trading strategies are the same as above [6]. - **PR**: Bottle - chip factories continue to reduce production. The开工 rate is stable, and processing fees fluctuate around 420 yuan/ton. The trading strategies are also the same [6]. 3.2 Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 Polyester - The开工 rate of polyester rises slightly, factory inventory increases, and processing fees recover at a low level. Short - fiber and filament are slightly profitable, while other products are still in the red [9]. - The terminal开工 rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang rises, and the sales atmosphere improves [11]. - The filament开工 rate reaches a high level, the sales volume surges at the beginning of the week, and inventory pressure eases [15]. - Bottle - chip factories continue to cut production, the开工 rate is stable for three consecutive weeks, and processing fees fluctuate around 420 yuan/ton [17]. - Supply and demand of short - fiber increase, and inventory accumulates slightly [21]. 3.2.2 PX - The spot floating price of PX weakens, and the basis and monthly spread compress [23]. - Profits are good, and the开工 rate increases. Some maintenance devices have restarted, and supply is on the rise [25]. 3.2.3 PTA - The basis of PTA strengthens, and the monthly spread weakens. Social inventory continues to rise [33]. - Supply and demand both increase, and processing fees recover slightly. In the short term, processing fees are undervalued, and in the medium term, supply will increase [35]. 3.2.4 Ethylene Glycol - Port shipments of ethylene glycol improve, the basis strengthens, and the monthly spread weakens. Port inventory rises, but the dominant inventory is still at a low level [40]. - Supply and demand increase, and the contradiction is not significant. The domestic maintenance devices are few, and the开工 rate is rising [42]. 3.3 Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking 3.3.1 PX - **Price**: It shows the price trends of Asian PX, naphtha, and other related products [51]. - **Variance and Profit**: It includes various variances and profit indicators such as PX - MX, PX theoretical profit, etc. [54][55]. - **Disproportionation and Oil - blending Spread and Profit**: It involves data on disproportionation and oil - blending spreads and profits [63]. - **Regional Spread and Profit**: It presents regional spreads and profits between the US and South Korea for related products [70]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load and开工 rate of PX and PTA in China [74]. 3.3.2 PTA - **Profit**: It includes PTA's profits related to crude oil, naphtha, and PX [87]. - **Supply and Demand**: It shows the load indexes of PTA and polyester [91]. - **Inventory**: It includes PTA social inventory, factory raw material inventory, and warehouse receipts [93]. 3.3.3 MEG - **Price**: It shows the prices of ethylene glycol and related raw materials [95]. - **Spread**: It includes various spreads such as internal - external spreads, regional spreads, etc. [97]. - **Profit**: It includes profits from different production methods of ethylene glycol [108]. 3.3.4 Polyester - **Profit**: It includes the profits of long - fiber, short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other polyester products [111]. - **Supply**: It shows the load and inventory of polyester products [113]. - **Demand**: It includes data on the load, inventory, and sales of downstream products such as pure - polyester yarn and cotton - polyester blended yarn [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the weekly performance of the polyester industry chain, including PX, PTA, MEG, polyester, and terminal products. It points out that the market is in a state of waiting for the peak season. Although there are some improvements in the terminal, the overall upstream valuation is still suppressed by the weak performance of the terminal and polyester. It also suggests paying attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11][12][13]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **PX**: Last week, the price fluctuated. The supply side saw an increase in load, with some domestic and overseas device changes. The demand side had a slight increase in PTA load, but the overall load in August decreased. The inventory continued to decline in July - August. The PXN fluctuated, and the valuation was at a neutral level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following crude oil after the peak season [11]. - **PTA**: The price also fluctuated last week. The supply side had an increase in load, but the overall load in August decreased due to more maintenance. The new device put into production increased the supply pressure. The demand side saw an increase in polyester load, and the terminal showed some improvement. The inventory continued to accumulate. The processing fee rebounded from a low level. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips following PX after the peak season [12]. - **MEG**: The price fluctuated last week. The supply side had a decrease in load, mainly due to the decline in ethylene - based load. The subsequent load is expected to increase. The demand side is similar to PTA. The inventory in ports and downstream factories increased. The valuation is relatively high, and there is a downward pressure on the short - term valuation [13]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **PX**: The basis rebounded, and the spread was weak. The trading volume was small, and the open interest was stable [32][35]. - **PTA**: The basis was continuously weak, and the spread fluctuated. The trading volume and open interest were at a relatively high level [42]. - **MEG**: The trading volume and open interest were at a low level [60]. 3.3 p - Xylene (PX) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The device load increased. Some domestic and overseas devices had changes in operation status. The new capacity of Yantai Yulongdao is expected to be put into production in the second half of 2025 [72][74]. - **Import**: The import volume in June was stable [77]. - **Inventory**: The inventory continued to decline in June [85]. - **Cost - profit**: The PXN fluctuated, the short - process spread was strong, and the naphtha crack spread fluctuated. The gasoline performance in the aromatics blending was weak, and the US - South Korea aromatics spread was also weak [89][96][105]. 3.4 PTA Fundamentals - **Supply**: The new capacity of Honggang Petrochemical (Phase III), Hailun Petrochemical 3, and Dushan Energy 4 has been or will be put into production. The load in June decreased, and the export volume was low [129][134]. - **Inventory**: The inventory increased from a low level [137]. - **Profit - valuation**: The processing fee was repaired [140]. 3.5 Ethylene Glycol (MEG) Fundamentals - **Supply**: The Zhengdakai Phase I was put into production. The ethylene device had an accident, and the load of the syngas - based device was at a historical high. The new capacity of Ningxia Kunpeng Phase I, Yulong Petrochemical 1, and BASF will be put into production in the future [144][148]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased this week [158]. - **Cost**: The coal price decreased, and the ethylene price increased slightly [168]. - **Profit**: The profit of naphtha - based MEG was relatively high [171]. 3.6 Polyester and Terminal - **Polyester**: New long - filament devices were put into production. The basis of staple fiber and bottle chips fluctuated. The operating rate increased, and the export data in June increased year - on - year but decreased month - on - month. The inventory pressure of long - filament was neutral, the inventory of staple fiber increased, and the absolute inventory of bottle chips was high. The profit of bottle chips and staple fiber was poor [186][189][192][198][201][212]. - **Terminal**: The operating rate increased. The orders of textile enterprises increased, the inventory decreased, and the raw material inventory increased. The domestic demand growth rate of textile and clothing decreased, and the export was weak [214][222][226].

1. Investment Rating of the Reported Industry No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The polyester industry chain continues to face pressure due to weakened cost support and a shift in supply - demand dynamics [1] - The current polyester industry chain is under triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory, and the price center of the industry chain is expected to remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Market Summary 3.1.1 PTA & PX - **Prices**: On August 1st, the PX主力合约 closed at 6,812.0 yuan/ton, down 1.67% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 126.0 yuan/ton. The PTA主力合约 closed at 4,744.0 yuan/ton, down 1.33% from the previous trading day, with a basis of 86.0 yuan/ton. The Brent crude oil主力合约 closed at 71.78 US dollars/barrel, and WTI closed at 69.36 US dollars/barrel [2] - **Supply**: The cost center of the PX link is suppressed by the weakening of crude oil. The continuous low processing fee may lead to the expectation of a reduction in the load of some devices. The centralized maintenance of large - scale PTA plants has gradually ended, and the high processing fee drives the operating rate to remain high, and the supply - side pressure has increased marginally [2] - **Demand**: The single - day trading volume of Light Textile City has reached a new high this year, but the sustainability of terminal orders is questionable. After the seasonal restocking ends, it may return to a sluggish state. The polyester operating rate remains at a high level of 89%, but the low cash flow and high finished - product inventory form a negative feedback, and attention should be paid to the negative impact of subsequent production cuts on the PTA demand side. Under the overseas clothing destocking cycle, the incremental momentum of export orders is insufficient [3] - **Inventory**: PTA factory inventories have been destocked to a medium - low level in history for three consecutive weeks, but the restart of devices in August and the narrowing of the export window will reverse the inventory trend. The explicit inventory in the PX link is at a low level, but the implicit storage capacity is under pressure. The high PTA processing fee stimulates the risk of the implicit inventory becoming explicit. It is expected to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle after mid - August [3] 3.1.2 Polyester - **Prices**: On August 1st, the short - fiber主力合约 closed at 6,382.0 yuan/ton, down 1.27% from the previous trading day. The spot price in the East China market was 6,530.0 yuan/ton, down 65.0 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a basis of 148.0 yuan/ton [4] - **Supply - demand - inventory situation**: The PX and PTA futures prices have continued to decline, indicating weakened upstream cost support. The terminal textile demand has weakened marginally. The inventory of polyester products is significantly higher than the five - year average, and the entire industry chain is under the triple pressure of loose supply, weakening demand, and high inventory. It is expected that the price center of the industry chain will remain under pressure in the short term [4] 3.2 Industry Chain Price Monitoring - **PX**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PX futures all decreased on August 1st compared with July 31st. The Chinese main port CFR price of PX spot remained unchanged, while the South Korean FOB price decreased. The PX basis increased significantly [5] - **PTA**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of PTA futures all declined. The Chinese main port CFR price of PTA spot remained unchanged. The PTA basis, 1 - 5 spread, 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the 5 - 9 spread increased. The PTA import profit decreased [5] - **Short - fiber**: The主力 contract price, trading volume, and open interest of short - fiber futures all decreased. The spot price in the East China market decreased, and the PF basis increased. The PF 1 - 5 spread and 9 - 1 spread decreased, while the PF 5 - 9 spread increased [5] - **Other products**: The prices of Brent crude oil, US crude oil, and ethylene glycol decreased slightly, while the prices of CFR Japan naphtha, polyester chips, polyester bottle chips, polyester POY, polyester DTY, and polyester FDY remained unchanged or decreased slightly. The processing spreads of most products changed to varying degrees, and the trading volume of Light Textile City increased [5][6] 3.3 Industry Dynamics and Interpretation 3.3.1 Macroeconomic Dynamics - On August 1st, the annual rate of the US core PCE inflation unexpectedly rebounded to 2.8%, and consumer spending was almost stagnant. The US Treasury Secretary expected to announce the nomination for the Federal Reserve before the end of the year. The Japanese central bank maintained the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the inflation forecast. The total value of global gold demand in the second quarter soared to a new record of 132 billion US dollars [7] - On July 31st, the Federal Reserve kept the interest rate unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, but two directors voted against it and advocated for a rate cut. The market's bet on the Federal Reserve's annual rate cut decreased by 8BP to 36BP. The US economic growth in the second quarter exceeded expectations [7][8] 3.3.2 Supply - demand - demand aspect - On August 1st, the total trading volume of Light Textile City was 593.0 million meters, a month - on - month increase of 8.21%, with the trading volume of long - fiber fabrics at 468.0 million meters and that of short - fiber fabrics at 127.0 million meters [9] 3.4 Appendix - The supply side of PX may see a decrease in device load due to low processing fees, while the PTA operating rate is high, maintaining sufficient supply. The demand side has short - term support, but its sustainability needs attention. The inventory side may shift from low inventory to inventory accumulation, and future prices may fluctuate or weaken [36][37]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - For PTA (TA509), it is in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. The supply - side second - quarter centralized maintenance has ended, downstream polyester is weakening in the off - season, and factors such as tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. In the third quarter, the overall supply - demand pattern is weak, and PTA should be short - positioned in the medium - and long - term [1]. - For p - xylene (PX509), it is also in a stage of oscillating downward, and the later price center is expected to decline. After the third - quarter centralized maintenance ends, the supply - side load recovers, downstream polyester starts to weaken in the off - season, and factors like tariffs may affect medium - and long - term terminal consumer exports. The subsequent price center is likely to weaken, and it can be short - tested in the third quarter [7]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Overview and Strategy - **Supply**: PX and PTA device maintenance plans are few in the third quarter. PE and PTA loads are at a moderately high level, and new devices are put into production smoothly. Supply will be sufficient in the second half of the year [12]. - **Demand**: Polyester starts at around 88% recently, with inventory at a moderately high level after restocking, but profit is weak. Terminal data is average, and the demand in the peak season this year may not be too optimistic [12]. - **Spot**: PTA spot basis is weak, with the spot premium over the 09 - contract at about 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Valuation**: Recent valuation changes are small, currently oscillating around 200 US dollars/ton in 2018, and the spot processing fee is about 200 yuan/ton. The industrial chain valuation is neutral, and whether it can be maintained depends on the polyester's start - up rate on the demand side [12]. - **Unilateral Strategy**: Against the background of relatively cheap crude oil on the cost side, PTA is considered bearish in the medium - and long - term. Near the peak season, the peak - season expectation may bring a rebound. In the short - term, it may oscillate strongly, but in the medium - and long - term, it should be treated bearishly, and it is suitable to hold PTA as a short - position in energy - chemical or commodity portfolios [12]. 3.2 Market Review: July Market Trends - PTA prices oscillated in July, with the price center slightly rising following the cost - side crude oil. From the supply - demand perspective, there were no significant highlights in July, with weak off - season demand and compressed overall valuation. Affected by strong commodity macro - sentiment and rising crude oil prices, it showed an oscillating upward trend with small self - fluctuations [18]. 3.3 PX Fundamental Analysis - **Device Changes**: The Xianglongdao project had no progress in the first half of the year. Recently, the device is in line with expectations, and the PX load has been rising in the third quarter, returning to the normal level range of previous years. The market trading focus has shifted to the impact of domestic macro - policies on commodities, and the supply - demand may be balanced in the third quarter [28]. - **Profit**: The PX processing fee is around 260 US dollars/ton recently, remaining at a high level this year. If the supply - demand remains balanced, PXN may oscillate in this range, and attention should be paid to whether demand can effectively support it [43]. 3.4 PTA Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up Rate**: The effective start - up rate is 80%. Recently, multiple devices have been overhauled as planned, and the PTA load is at a normal level. There are few overhaul plans in the third quarter, and the impact of new device production on this year's supply - demand pattern may be limited [61]. - **Profit**: The spot processing fee is around 200 yuan/ton, which is currently in a neutral position. As supply recovers, the basis weakens, and the spot processing fee is compressed [62]. 3.5 Polyester Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: Polyester starts at 88%. Due to inventory pressure in the off - season, polyester factories have cut production. As the off - season ends, attention should be paid to the inventory performance before the Peak Season. Whether the demand can return to a high load in the peak season may be the core factor for the industrial chain's valuation [69]. - **Profit**: The profit of polyester bottle chips has been at the bottom of the historical level, resulting in low start - up rates and possible post - ponement of new device production. Most polyester varieties have poor profits due to strong raw material prices [72]. - **Inventory**: After terminal restocking, the polyester burden has been digested to some extent. Currently, terminal demand confidence is insufficient, and short - term production and sales are difficult to maintain. Polyester is likely to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to inventory changes, which will greatly affect the expectation of peak - season load [87]. 3.6 Terminal Weaving Fundamental Analysis - **Start - up**: The weaving start - up rate is 58%. The terminal situation is average in terms of order index, start - up, and inventory data. Domestic macro - policies have led to strong raw material prices, which may further compress terminal demand expectations. Although the peak season is approaching, the overall situation may not be very optimistic [93]. - **Export**: The export data of clothing and textile products shows certain fluctuations, and the trade situation is affected by various factors such as tariffs [102][110]. 3.7 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - **PX**: The supply - demand is basically balanced in the third quarter, with production, import, and consumption showing certain trends and year - on - year changes [121]. - **PTA**: The supply - demand situation is also analyzed in the balance sheet, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes, etc. Production is estimated based on device overhauls and new device commissions, and import and export are inferred according to trade contracts and price differences [121]. 3.8 Basis and Spread Analysis - **PX**: The basis and spread of the PX09 contract show certain trends, which can provide arbitrage opportunities and reflect market supply - demand and price relationships [125]. - **PTA**: The basis and spread of PTA contracts (such as TA01, TA09, etc.) also show different trends, having an impact on trading strategies and market expectations [126][135]. 3.9 Position and Trading Volume Analysis - **PX**: The position and trading volume of the PX09 contract show certain changes, which can reflect market participation and trading sentiment [140]. - **PTA**: The position and trading volume of the PTA09 contract also show corresponding trends, affecting price fluctuations and market supply - demand relationships [140].