股债性价比

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固定收益周报:月初或现资金面高点-20250608
Huaxin Securities· 2025-06-08 11:02
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - China is in a marginal de - leveraging process, with the government aiming to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is generally neutral. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. The report recommends a portfolio of the dividend index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][15][21] - The performance of the US economy is closely watched, especially whether and when the quarterly real GDP growth rate will fall below the trend level. The current situation in the US is similar to that during the burst of the Internet bubble in 2001 [6] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. A + H dividend - type stocks with characteristics of non - expansion, good profitability, and survival are recommended [7][15][63] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis 3.1.1 Liability Side - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real - sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7% previously, in line with expectations. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then decline. By the end of the year, it is projected to drop to around 8% [1][16] - Last week, the financial sector's capital situation eased marginally, but a monthly high may occur. The government's debt (including national and local bonds) increased by 219.5 billion yuan last week (higher than the planned 128.3 billion yuan). The planned increase this week is 176.2 billion yuan. The government's liability growth rate was 14.8% at the end of April 2025, up from 13.9% previously, and is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline to around 12.5% by the end of the year [2][17] 3.1.2 Monetary Policy - Last week, the capital trading volume increased week - on - week, the capital price decreased, and the term spread widened. After excluding seasonal effects, the capital situation eased marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield trended downwards, closing at 1.41% at the weekend. The estimated lower bound of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%. The term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds widened to 24 basis points. The estimated central level of the term spread is adjusted downwards to 40 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the ten - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.7%. The central level of the spread between the thirty - year and ten - year Treasury bonds is estimated at 20 basis points, corresponding to a lower bound of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield of about 1.9% [2][17] 3.1.3 Asset Side - In April, the physical - quantity data weakened compared to March. The 2025 government work report set the annual real economic growth target at around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target at around 4.9% when calculated backwards from the deficit and deficit ratio. It remains to be seen whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18] 3.2 Stock - Bond Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the capital situation eased marginally, resulting in a bull market for both stocks and bonds, with the growth style outperforming expectations. Bond yields declined across the board, and the stock - bond ratio shifted towards stocks. The ten - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.65%, the one - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 5 basis points to 1.41%, and the thirty - year Treasury bond yield dropped by 2 basis points to 1.88% [5][20] - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio trends towards bonds, and the equity style trends towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance than value - type equity assets. If value - type equity assets continue to fall, a good entry opportunity may emerge [6][21] 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with increased volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.42%, and the ChiNext Index rose 2.32%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, composites, and computers had the largest increases, while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [27] 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of June 6, the top five industries in terms of crowding were electronics, computers, pharmaceutical biology, machinery and equipment, and power equipment, with crowding levels of 10.4%, 9.8%, 7.9%, 7.2%, and 7% respectively. The bottom five were composites, steel, coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, and beauty care, with levels of 0.2%, 0.5%, 0.5%, 0.6%, and 0.7% respectively [30] - This week, the top five industries with increased crowding were communications, non - ferrous metals, electronics, basic chemicals, and computers, with increases of 2.1%, 1.8%, 1.4%, 1%, and 0.4% respectively. The bottom five with decreased crowding were pharmaceutical biology, automobiles, machinery and equipment, environmental protection, and banks, with changes of - 1.9%, - 1.7%, - 0.9%, - 0.7%, and - 0.6% respectively [30] - The average daily trading volume of the entire A - share market this week was 1.2 trillion yuan, up from 1.09 trillion yuan last week. The industries with the highest year - on - year growth in trading volume were social services, non - bank finance, building materials, media, and non - ferrous metals, while composites, commercial retail, petroleum and petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and machinery and equipment had the smallest increases [31] 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, communications, electronics, non - ferrous metals, composites, and computers had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while household appliances, food and beverages, transportation, coal, and steel had the largest declines [35] - As of June 6, 2025, industries with high 2024 full - year earnings forecasts and relatively low current valuations compared to history include insurance, petroleum and petrochemicals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36] 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI in May fell from 49.8 to 49.6, while most of the disclosed PMI of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 3.34% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 1.3% in May. Vietnam's export growth rate slightly decreased from 21% in April to 20.7% in May [40] - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price remained flat last week, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March 2025 rose to a relatively high level in history, declined significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home trading volume remained at a historical low, and second - hand housing trading volume declined significantly compared to the historical seasonality [40] 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the first week of June (June 3 - 6), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 3.6%, 2.8%, 2.3%, and 1.5% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 0.9% [57] - As of June 6, the net asset value of active public equity funds was estimated to be 3.46 trillion yuan, slightly down from 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57] 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the value style is more likely to outperform. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [7][63]
螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板来啦:当前还在低估吗|2025年6月份
银行螺丝钉· 2025-06-04 13:48
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, focusing on the bull-bear signal board for June 2025, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions [1]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that the market is in a relatively low valuation zone when below 80% [27]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that various market styles, including small-cap growth, are experiencing low valuations, with the growth style rebounding faster than value style [29][30]. - The stock-bond valuation ratio is currently at 3.24, suggesting that stocks are undervalued compared to bonds, as this figure exceeds 94% of historical data [33]. - Financing balance in the A-share market reflects investor sentiment, with lower balances indicating a cooler market [8][36]. - The trading volume percentile is at 81.20%, suggesting that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical levels [9]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and their initial failure rates are used to gauge market sentiment, with higher failure rates typically indicating a bearish market [41]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply can help identify market liquidity and potential bottoming out [43]. - The scale of established funds has been declining significantly, with many funds down by 50%-60% from their peaks in 2021, indicating a low market sentiment [46]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 20.93%, which may suggest that fund managers perceive the market as expensive [17][54]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, with several monetary policy adjustments aimed at stimulating the market, such as lowering reserve requirements and interest rates [58]. Summary - The current market is characterized by low valuations and mixed investor sentiment, with indicators suggesting potential investment opportunities despite a generally bearish outlook [61][62].
固定收益周报:股债性价比转向债券之后-20250602
Huaxin Securities· 2025-06-02 10:04
1. Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is trending towards value. Currently, long - term bonds have a slightly better cost - performance ratio than value - type equity assets. If equity - type value assets continue to decline, there may be a good entry window. This week, the report recommends the Dividend Index (40% position), the Shanghai Composite 50 Index (40% position), and the 30 - year Treasury Bond ETF (20% position) [6][22]. - The Chinese economy is in a state of marginal balance sheet contraction. The liability growth rate of the real - sector and the government sector is expected to decline. The asset - side physical quantity data weakened in April, and it is necessary to focus on the duration of this economic marginal weakening [16][18]. - The US economic situation is similar to that during the bursting of the Internet bubble in 2001. It is necessary to focus on whether and when the quarterly real GDP year - on - year growth rate in the US will fall below the trend level [6][22]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side** - In April 2025, the liability growth rate of the real sector was 9.0%, up from 8.7%. It is expected to stabilize around 9.0% in May and then return to balance sheet contraction. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [16]. - Last week, the net reduction of government bonds was 295 billion yuan, significantly lower than the planned net increase of 137.4 billion yuan. This week, the planned net increase is 128.3 billion yuan. The government liability growth rate at the end of April 2025 was 14.8%, up from 13.9%. It is expected to stabilize around 14.8% in May and then decline, reaching around 12.5% by the end of the year [17]. - The money market tightened marginally last week. The one - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.46% at the weekend. The lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is estimated to be around 1.3%, the lower limit of the ten - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.7%, and the lower limit of the thirty - year Treasury bond yield is around 1.9% [2][17]. - **Asset Side** - The physical quantity data in April was weaker than that in March. The full - year real economic growth target in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth target is around 4.9%. It is necessary to observe whether 5% will become the central target for China's nominal economic growth in the next 1 - 2 years [3][18]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Performance Ratio and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market tightened marginally, stocks fell while bonds were flat, and the style shifted to growth dominance. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds shifted towards bonds. The ten - year Treasury bond yield decreased by 5 basis points to 1.67%, the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.46%, and the 30 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.90% [5]. - Since the two sessions in 2025, the balance sheet of the real and government sectors is expected to return to contraction after reaching a high in April - May. The cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds will trend towards bonds in the contraction cycle, and the equity style will trend towards value [6][22]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation - **Industry Performance Review** - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.03%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.91%, and the ChiNext Index fell 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and computer had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines [29]. - **Industry Crowding and Trading Volume** - As of May 30, the top five crowded industries were pharmaceutical biology, computer, electronics, mechanical equipment, and automobile, while the bottom five were comprehensive, coal, steel, petroleum and petrochemical, and social services. - The top five industries with the largest increase in crowding this week were computer, pharmaceutical biology, environmental protection, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, and national defense and military industry, while the top five with the largest decrease were automobile, non - ferrous metals, electronics, power equipment, and household appliances. - The daily average trading volume of the whole A - share market decreased from 1.17 trillion yuan last week to 1.09 trillion yuan this week. Environmental protection, computer, power equipment, food and beverage, and pharmaceutical biology had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume [32][33]. - **Industry Valuation and Profit** - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, environmental protection, pharmaceutical biology, national defense and military industry, media, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while automobile, power equipment, non - ferrous metals, comprehensive, and food and beverage had the largest declines. - As of May 30, 2025, industries with high full - year profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include petroleum and petrochemical, non - ferrous metals, transportation, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [36][37]. - **Industry Prosperity** - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and most of the disclosed PMIs of major economies in May rebounded. The CCFI index rose 0.92% week - on - week. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then fell to - 1.3% in May, while Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price fell last week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The highway truck traffic volume declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries in March rose to a relatively high level, fell significantly in April, and rebounded slightly in May. The automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level in the same period of history, new - house sales were at a historical low, and second - hand house sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [41]. - **Public Fund Market Review** - In the fourth week of May (May 26 - 30), most active public equity funds outperformed the CSI 300. As of May 30, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [57]. - **Industry Recommendation** - In the contraction cycle, the cost - performance ratio of stocks to bonds is only slightly favorable to equities, and the value style is more likely to dominate. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - shares, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemical, and transportation [7][63].
公司债ETF(511030)最新规模突破140亿元,国开债券ETF(159651)、国债ETF5至10年(511020)交投活跃,机构:债券或逐步跌出交易机会
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-19 01:56
Group 1 - The company bond ETF (511030) is experiencing a stalemate in trading, with the latest price at 105.65 yuan and a total scale reaching 14.01 billion yuan, marking a one-year high [1] - The weighted average interest rate of DR001 in February and March was 1.88% and 1.77% respectively, with expectations for a gradual decline to 1.7% in the coming months [1] - The recent LPR reduction of 10 basis points suggests that the effective lower limit for commercial mortgage and consumer loan rates remains at 3.0% [1] Group 2 - The national development bond ETF (159651) is also in a stalemate, with a latest price of 105.99 yuan and a one-year cumulative increase of 2.04% as of May 16, 2025 [4] - The scale of the national development bond ETF has grown by 445 million yuan over the past six months, ranking it in the top half among comparable funds [4] - The latest share count for the national development bond ETF is 13.84 million, reaching a one-month high [4] Group 3 - The national bond ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020) has seen a slight increase of 0.01%, with the latest price at 117.11 yuan and a cumulative increase of 3.00% over the past six months [7] - The latest scale for the 5 to 10-year national bond ETF is 1.466 billion yuan, with net inflows and outflows remaining balanced [7] - Over the past 18 trading days, the fund has attracted a total of 35.17 million yuan [7] Group 4 - The three main members of the bond ETF from Ping An Fund include the company bond ETF (511030), national development bond ETF (159651), and national bond ETF for 5 to 10 years (511020), covering various types of bonds to assist investors in navigating the bond market cycle [8]
中银量化大类资产跟踪:杠杆资金持续回升,大盘及成长风格占优
Bank of China Securities· 2025-05-18 15:36
金融工程 | 证券研究报告 —周报 2025 年 5 月 18 日 杠杆资金持续回升,大盘及成长风格占优 中银量化大类资产跟踪 小盘 vs大盘:小盘风格超额净值及拥挤度持续处于历史低位;大盘风格 拥挤度下降至历史低位。 微盘股 vs基金重仓:近期微盘股拥挤度快速下降至历史低位;基金重仓 拥挤度及超额累计净值处于历史低位。 A 股行情及成交热度 ◼ 本周领涨的行业为国防军工、房地产、纺织服装;领跌的行业为电力设 备及新能源、计算机、综合金融;成交热度最高的行业为家电、纺织服 装、电力设备及新能源。 A 股估值与股债性价比 股票市场概览 ◼ 本周 A 股上涨,港股上涨,美股上涨,其他海外权益市场普遍上涨。 A 股风格与拥挤度 成长 vs 红利:成长风格拥挤度及超额净值持续处于历史低位;红利风 格拥挤度当前仍处于历史较低位置,近期快速下降。 A 股资金面 机构调研活跃度 ◼ 当前机构调研活跃度历史分位居前的行业为纺织服装、商贸零售、房地 产,居后的行业为食品饮料、医药、电力设备及新能源。 利率市场 ◼ 本周中国国债利率上涨,美国国债利率上涨,中美利差处于历史高位。 汇率市场 ◼ 近一周在岸人民币较美元升值,离岸人民 ...
固定收益周报:债券或逐步跌出交易机会-20250518
Huaxin Securities· 2025-05-18 08:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, China is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The government aims to stabilize the macro - leverage ratio, and the growth rate of the real - sector's liabilities is expected to decline. The fiscal policy is front - loaded, and the monetary policy is moderately neutral [2][17]. - The economic recovery in the current round is better than expected, but it is necessary to observe whether the physical volume data will weaken in the future. The target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9% [4][19]. - The stock - bond relationship shows a pattern of a strong stock market and a weak bond market, with the style shifting towards value - based stocks. The stock - bond ratio continues to favor stocks, but in the de - leveraging cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited. If the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above 1.7%, the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge [6][22]. - In the de - leveraging cycle, the probability of value - based stocks outperforming is higher. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio and A - share portfolio mainly focus on industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 National Balance Sheet Analysis Liability Side - In March 2025, the real - sector's liability growth rate was 8.7% (previous value: 8.4%), expected to rebound slightly to around 9.0% in April, reach an annual high, and then decline steadily in May and return to de - leveraging. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 8% [2][17]. - The government's liability growth rate was 13.9% at the end of March 2025 (previous value: 12.9%), expected to rise to around 14.8% in April, reach an annual high, and then decline. By the end of the year, it is expected to drop to around 12.5% [3][18]. - Last week, the money market continued to loosen marginally. The one - year Treasury bond yield oscillated upwards, closing at 1.45% at the weekend. The estimated lower limit of the one - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.3%, the lower limit of the 10 - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.7%, and the lower limit of the 30 - year Treasury bond yield is about 1.9% [3][18]. Asset Side - In March, the physical volume data improved comprehensively compared to January - February. The economic recovery in this round is better than expected, but it is necessary to pay attention to whether the physical volume data will weaken in the future. The target for the annual real economic growth rate in 2025 is around 5%, and the nominal economic growth rate target is around 4.9% [4][19]. 3.2 Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - Last week, the money market continued to loosen marginally. The stock market was strong, and the bond market was weak, with the style shifting towards value - based stocks. The yields of both short - term and long - term bonds increased, and the stock - bond ratio continued to favor stocks [6][22]. - The 10 - year Treasury bond yield increased by 4 basis points to 1.68% throughout the week, and the one - year Treasury bond yield increased by 3 basis points to 1.45%. The term spread between the 10 - year and one - year Treasury bonds slightly widened to 23 basis points [6][22]. - The wide - based rotation strategy underperformed the CSI 300 index by - 0.02 pct last week. Since the position was established in July, it has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 6.28 pct, with a maximum drawdown of 12.1% (compared to 15.7% for the CSI 300 index) [6][22]. - Considering the de - leveraging cycle, the trading value of both stocks and bonds is currently limited. If the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond rises above the predicted lower limit of 1.7%, the trading value of bonds may gradually emerge. This week, a bond position is added, with recommended allocations of 40% for the dividend index, 40% for the SSE 50 index, and 20% for the 30 - year Treasury bond ETF [7][23]. 3.3 Industry Recommendation 3.3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market rose with shrinking trading volume. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.8%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.5%, and the ChiNext Index rose 1.4%. Among the Shenwan primary industries, beauty care, non - bank finance, automobiles, transportation, and basic chemicals had the largest increases, while computer, national defense and military industry, media, electronics, and social services had the largest declines [31]. 3.3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of May 16, the top five industries in terms of crowding were machinery and equipment, electronics, automobiles, computers, and basic chemicals, while the bottom five were comprehensive, steel, coal, building materials, and petroleum and petrochemicals [34]. - The top five industries with increased crowding this week were basic chemicals, transportation, automobiles, pharmaceutical biology, and non - ferrous metals, while the top five with decreased crowding were computers, national defense and military industry, electronics, communications, and media [34]. - The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased this week. Beauty care, transportation, non - bank finance, textile and apparel, and coal had the highest year - on - year growth rates in trading volume, while real estate, media, household appliances, building materials, and steel had the smallest increases [35]. 3.3.3 Industry Valuation and Earnings - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, beauty care, non - bank finance, automobiles, basic chemicals, and transportation had the largest increases in PE(TTM), while national defense and military industry, computer, media, electronics, and social services had the largest declines [38]. - In terms of valuation - earnings matching, as of May 16, 2025, industries with relatively high full - year earnings forecasts for 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history included coal, petroleum and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, power equipment, pharmaceutical biology, and consumer electronics [40]. 3.3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI fell from 50.3 in April to 49.8, and the PMIs of major economies that have been released in April showed mixed trends. The CCFI index decreased by 0.14% week - on - week in the latest week, and port cargo throughput declined. South Korea's export growth rate rose to 3.7% in April and then dropped to - 23.8% in the first 10 days of May. Vietnam's export growth rate rose from 13.2% in March to 21% in April [42]. - In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price decreased in the latest week, and the quantitative indicators showed mixed trends. The traffic volume of trucks on expressways declined. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rose to a relatively high level in March 2025, significantly declined in April, and slightly rebounded in May. Automobile trading volume was at a relatively high level compared to the same period in history, new - home sales remained at a historical low, and second - hand home sales were still at a high level compared to the historical seasonality [42]. 3.3.5 Public Fund Market Review - In the second week of May (May 12 - 16), most active public equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. The 10%, 20%, 30%, and 50% weekly returns were 1.4%, 1%, 0.8%, and 0.3% respectively, while the CSI 300 rose 1.1% [58]. - As of May 16, based on the latest net value and share estimates, the net asset value of active public equity funds was 3.4 trillion yuan, slightly lower than the 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [58]. 3.3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond ratio favors equities to a limited extent, and the probability of value - based stocks outperforming is higher. Dividend - type stocks generally should have three characteristics: no balance - sheet expansion, good profitability, and survival ability [8][62]. - Combining the above three characteristics and the under - allocation situation in the public fund's quarterly report, the recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, petroleum and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][62].
螺丝钉股市牛熊信号板来啦:当前还在低估吗|2025年5月份
银行螺丝钉· 2025-05-07 13:55
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market as of May 2025, focusing on the bull-bear signal board, which includes both quantitative and qualitative indicators to assess market conditions and potential investment opportunities [1][46]. Quantitative Indicators - The Buffett Indicator, which measures the total market capitalization of listed companies against GDP, indicates that a value below 80% suggests a relatively low market valuation [19]. - The price-to-book ratio percentile shows that the current market valuation is at 45.76% for large-cap growth stocks and 30.97% for large-cap value stocks, indicating that the market is relatively cheap compared to historical levels [3][4]. - The stock-bond yield ratio is currently at 3.34, which is above the historical average, suggesting that the stock market is undervalued [23]. - The financing balance in the A-share market is a critical indicator, with lower balances indicating a cooler market, while higher balances suggest a more active market [5][26]. - The trading volume percentile is at 88.30%, indicating that current trading activity is relatively high compared to historical data [5]. Qualitative Indicators - The number of new stock issuances and the rate of initial public offering (IPO) failures are important indicators; a high failure rate typically signifies a bearish market [28]. - The relationship between the total return of the CSI All Share Index and M2 money supply indicates market liquidity; when the index approaches the M2 bottom curve, it suggests a low market condition [30]. - The scale of existing funds has decreased significantly, with many funds experiencing a 50%-60% drop compared to their peak sizes in 2021, reflecting a bearish sentiment in the market [32]. - The proportion of funds under purchase restrictions is currently at 22.73%, indicating that fund managers are cautious about market valuations [11][38]. - Recent market news has been predominantly positive, which may influence market sentiment and investor behavior [41].
【广发宏观陈礼清】复盘4月大类资产表现与五一假期最新变化
郭磊宏观茶座· 2025-05-05 11:59
Core Viewpoint - The macroeconomic environment is experiencing significant fluctuations due to tariff impacts, with asset prices showing a "rebound" effect after initial adjustments, leading to increased volatility in global markets [1][2][3]. Group 1: Asset Performance - As of April 30, 2025, the performance ranking of major assets is as follows: Gold > Euro Stoxx > Nikkei > Chinese Bonds > Nasdaq > 0 > Sci-Tech 50 > CSI 300 > Dow Jones > Hang Seng > US Dollar > Hang Seng Tech > LME Copper > Crude Oil [1][13]. - Gold has shown a year-to-date increase of 26.5% and a monthly rise of 6%, leading in both returns and Sharpe ratio among major assets, although it faced a pullback in late April [1][17]. - The domestic stock market exhibited a "dumbbell" characteristic, with small-cap and stable dividend stocks outperforming large-cap stocks, as evidenced by a 5.0% increase in the micro-cap index [1][41]. Group 2: Macroeconomic Indicators - The April manufacturing PMI, services PMI, and construction PMI in China fell to 49.0%, 50.1%, and 51.9%, respectively, indicating initial impacts from external demand [3]. - The US economy is showing signs of negative impacts from trade tensions, with Q1 GDP growth adjusted for inflation recording a negative annualized rate, and consumer spending growth slowing to 1.8% [3]. - The Eurozone and Japan's manufacturing PMIs showed slight increases, indicating some resilience in their economies [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The domestic bond market displayed a dual pricing characteristic of nominal growth and liquidity, with interest rates declining in early April due to tariff impacts and expectations of policy easing later in the month [2][4]. - The stock market is increasingly focused on "finding certainty," with a shift towards dividend-paying and stable sectors amid rising external demand concerns [2][4]. - The correlation between stocks and bonds has deepened, with the rolling 12-month correlation increasing from -0.26 to -0.30, indicating a stronger inverse relationship [28]. Group 4: Sector Performance - In April, only 4 out of 31 sectors recorded positive returns, with beauty care, agriculture, retail, and utilities leading the gains, while sectors like power equipment and telecommunications lagged due to tariff impacts [41][51]. - The real estate market showed a mixed performance, with new home sales declining while second-hand home sales maintained a high growth rate, reflecting resilience in major cities [53]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - The dividend asset timing model indicates a continued rise in dividend scores, suggesting a shift towards dividend-paying stocks as a strategy to mitigate uncertainty [6][7]. - The valuation macro deviation framework suggests that if nominal GDP growth can recover, there will be further room for reasonable valuation expansion in the market [8].
市场波动中的信号洞察——鹏华碳中和混合基金致鹏友们的第四封信
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 08:46
A. 恐慌抛售怕被套牢 B. 逢低加仓期待反弹 C. 不知所措观望等待 亲爱的鹏友们: 展信佳!第二封信我们初步认识了"牛市也会有回撤"。 我们回归到实战操作,当你的持仓市值一周内回落 15%,你会: 正确答案取决于:这到底是上涨路途的中场休息,还是盛宴结束? 识别市场位置需要跳出情 绪干扰,借助成体系的指标工具进行理性诊断。今天,我们将以 A 股历史为参照, 分析各指标工具和市场表现的关系,帮助大家在波动行情中找到自己的锚点。 估值信号灯:低买高卖的标尺 市盈率(PE)分位数是判断市场估值水位的常用指标。2007 年全市场 PE 突破 70 倍(历史分位数 98%), 2015 年创业板 PE 达 145 倍(分位数 99%),均构成显著泡沫特征。 我们可根据指数的估值历史百分位划分状态,再根据估值状态来辅助决定买入、持有或卖出。比如: 低于25%——低估 介于25%和75%之间——适中 高于75%——高估 当前数据:全 A 指数 PE18 倍,处于近十年 34% 分位,沪深 300 指数 PE12 倍(分位数 39%),中证 500 指 数 PE27 倍(分位数 39%),整体估值处于适中区间,未现系统性 ...
资产配置周报(2025-4-5):重回缩表-2025-04-05
Huaxin Securities· 2025-04-05 12:58
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall economic situation shows that the debt - to - GDP ratio of the real - economic sector will decline, and the fiscal policy front - loading will end around the end of March and early April. The stock - bond ratio is trending towards bonds, and the value style is more dominant. The recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF, Shanghai Composite 50 Index, and CSI 1000 Index. The recommended industries are mainly A + H dividend - type stocks in sectors such as banking, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals [2][7][24] - The Chinese economy is in a marginal de - leveraging process. The growth rate of the real - economic sector's debt will decline, and the asset side is expected to operate stably. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of assets with stable returns and appropriately take on high - risk assets to obtain high returns [22] Summary by Directory 1. National Balance Sheet Analysis - **Liability Side**: In February 2025, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector was 8.4%, slightly lower than expected. It is expected to rebound to around 8.6% in March and then decline. The government's debt growth rate is expected to reach a high point around the end of March and early April and then decline. By the end of the year, the debt growth rate of the real - economic sector is expected to drop to around 8%, and that of the government sector to around 12.6% [2][18][19] - **Fiscal Policy**: Last week, the net increase of government bonds was 495.5 billion yuan, higher than the plan. This week, it is planned to have a net reduction of 435.7 billion yuan. The fiscal policy front - loading started around mid - January and will basically end around the end of March and early April [3][19] - **Monetary Policy**: Last week, the money market showed a marginal relaxation. The yield of the one - year Treasury bond closed at 1.48% at the weekend, and the term spread between the ten - year and one - year Treasury bonds narrowed to 24 basis points. The asset side may operate stably in the future, and it is necessary to observe whether the nominal economic growth rate of about 5% will become the central target for the next 1 - 2 years [4][20] 2. Stock - Bond Cost - Effectiveness and Stock - Bond Style - The stock - bond market continued the trend of a weak stock market and a strong bond market last week, with the value style remaining dominant. The yields of short - and long - term bonds declined significantly. Although there may be short - term fluctuations, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is trending towards bonds, and the equity style is gradually shifting to value. This week, the recommended investment portfolio includes 30 - year Treasury bond ETF (20% position), Shanghai Composite 50 Index (60% position), and CSI 1000 Index (20% position) [7][23][24] - Since 2016, China has entered a period of marginal contraction of the national balance sheet. The investment strategy should focus on the allocation of stable - return assets and appropriately take on high - risk assets. The stock - bond cost - effectiveness is biased towards bonds, and specific allocation strategies are proposed for stocks and bonds [22] 3. Industry Recommendation 3.1 Industry Performance Review - This week, the A - share market declined with shrinking trading volume. Among the Shenwan primary industries, public utilities, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and banking had the largest increases, while automobile, power equipment, household appliances, non - ferrous metals, and electronics had the largest decreases [31] 3.2 Industry Crowding and Trading Volume - As of April 3, the top five crowded industries were electronics, machinery and equipment, computer, power equipment, and pharmaceutical biology, while the bottom five were comprehensive, beauty care, coal, building materials, and oil and petrochemicals. The trading volume of the entire A - share market decreased this week, with non - bank finance, banking, pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, and retail trade having the largest increases in trading volume, and national defense and military industry, coal, oil and petrochemicals, power equipment, and non - ferrous metals having the largest decreases [34][36] 3.3 Industry Valuation and Profitability - This week, among the Shenwan primary industries, the PE (TTM) of social services, computer, public utilities, retail trade, and national defense and military industry increased the most, while that of comprehensive, automobile, household appliances, power equipment, and non - bank finance decreased the most. Industries with high profit forecasts in 2024 and relatively low current valuations compared to history include banking, insurance, oil and petrochemicals, non - ferrous metals, transportation, food and beverage, liquor, household appliances, telecommunications, and consumer electronics [39][40] 3.4 Industry Prosperity - In terms of external demand, there were mixed trends. The global manufacturing PMI declined in March, and the CCFI index decreased. However, the port throughput increased, and the export growth rates of South Korea and Vietnam rose. In terms of domestic demand, the second - hand housing price increased slightly, and quantity indicators showed mixed trends. The capacity utilization rate of ten industries rebounded in March, and the automobile trading volume was at a historically high level [44] 3.5 Public - Fund Market Review - In the fourth week of March (March 24 - 28), most active public - fund equity funds underperformed the CSI 300. As of March 28, the net asset value of active public - fund equity funds was 3.56 trillion yuan, slightly lower than 3.66 trillion yuan in Q4 2024 [59] 3.6 Industry Recommendation - In the de - leveraging cycle, the stock - bond cost - effectiveness is only slightly biased towards equities, and the value style is more likely to be dominant. The recommended A + H dividend portfolio includes 20 A + H stocks, and the A - share portfolio includes 20 A - share stocks, mainly concentrated in industries such as banking, telecommunications, oil and petrochemicals, and transportation [9][64]