今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-黄金】美联储维持基准利率在3.50%-3.75%不变， 在连续三次降息25个基点后暂停行动，符合市场预期。美联储 主席候选人沃勒支持降息25个基点，与特朗普"钦点"理事米 兰立场一致。美联储在声明中指出，失业率已现初步企稳迹 象，通胀仍处于相对高位，经济前景的不确定性依然较高。 评：鲍威尔讲话表示，不相信美联储会丧失独立性，将建议下 一届美联储主席远离政治。在避险情绪推动，美元指数下跌及 美联储主席更迭等事件发酵下，黄金再度创新高，注意管控风 险，关注地缘扰动。 【短评-PTA】根据统计数据来看，现如今聚酯市场整体库 存集中在14-24天；具体产品方面，其中POY库存至14-23天， FDY库存至12-22天附近，而DTY库存则至13-25天左右。评：聚 酯库存不高。年底终端需求转淡，织机开工率稳步下滑，部分 聚酯企业开启检修，但PTA工厂亦坚持控产，社会库存延续去 化，PTA现货压力不大。近期成本端原油表现偏强，PTA绝对价 格仍主要跟随成本运行，关注原料市场走势。 投资咨询中心 2026年01月29日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiuming@nzfco.com ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the reform of the public housing fund can release significant consumption potential by lowering housing costs, thereby saving more funds for consumption. Three specific paths are proposed to reduce housing costs: expanding rental withdrawals, broadening the usage scope of the fund, and further lowering loan interest rates. The total potential release of funds is estimated at approximately 515.1 billion yuan, which could theoretically stimulate consumption by about 360.6 billion yuan, increasing the growth rate of resident consumption by 0.7 percentage points [1][15]. Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the "see-saw" relationship between stocks and bonds, emphasizing that this relationship is not stable or universal. The direction of stock and bond pricing is determined by the interplay between the numerator (earnings) and the denominator (interest rates). When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved earnings, but rising interest rates can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions. Conversely, in a weak economic environment, stock prices may decline even if bond prices rise [2][18]. Industry Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key investment area for 2026, driven by the successful launch of domestic rockets, which has removed previous operational bottlenecks. The report suggests focusing on four main areas: SpaceX-related stocks, rocket and satellite sectors, and space computing/solar power. Specific companies to watch include Maimai Co., Anhui Helit, and others in the rocket and satellite sectors [3][21]. Water Conservancy Investment - The report indicates that the "northward shift of the rain belt" since 2021 has led to increased rainfall and flooding in northern China, prompting a focus on enhancing water conservancy infrastructure. It is projected that water-related investments in 2026 could see significant growth, contributing to a recovery in overall fixed asset investments by approximately 1.1 percentage points [2][16][17]. Electric Power Equipment - The report emphasizes the potential for rapid development in space solar power due to the acceleration of commercial aerospace and low-orbit satellite advancements. Companies involved in space power supply and equipment are recommended for investment, including Jun Da Co. and Ming Yang Smart Energy [6][21]. Food and Beverage Industry - The report discusses the potential of AKK bacteria as a beneficial symbiotic organism in gut health, with applications in obesity and diabetes management. The market for AKK is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on leading companies in the probiotic sector [3][23].

【市场表现】 【政策面】 财政部表示，2026年，按照中央经济工作会议部署，财政部门将继续实施更加积极的财政政策，概括起 来就是"总量增加、结构更优、效益更好、动能更强"。"动能更强"，就是深化财税重点领域改革，进一 步激发经济的内生活力。优化转移支付结构，增强地方自主财力和统筹能力，提高转移支付资金效能。 通过加强财政资源和预算统筹、强化预算绩效管理、落实优化出口退税政策、清理规范税收优惠和财政 补贴等改革举措，进一步增强地方财政发展动能、助力全国统一大市场建设。总之，2026年财政部门 将"硬核"支持稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，确保"十五五"实现良好开局。 【操作建议】 昨日股市降温，股债跷跷板影响下，期债震荡回升。往后看债市走向或主要取决于一季度政策力度和供 需状况，短期或仍处于震荡格局中，10债利率或在1.82%-1.88%区间震荡，T2603合约波动区间或在 107.6-108.3区间震荡，目前T2503合约在108.3附近可能面临一定上行阻力。单边策略上仍维持区间操 作。期现策略上关注TS、T与TF合约正套以及做阔基差策略。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资 ...

期货研究报告 2026年01月26日 周报 国债期货：震荡偏多 曹宝琴 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012851 caobaoqin@nzfco.com 报告导读： 市场回顾与展望：财政部有关负责人介绍，2026年财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量将保持必要水平， 确保总体支出力度"只增不减"、重点领域保障"只强不弱"。2026年将继续安排超长期特别国债，用于 "两重"建设和"两新"工作，并优化政策。央行行长潘功胜表示，2026年将继续实施好适度宽松的货币 政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。今年降准降息还有一定的空间。从 财政部及央行相关官员表态来看，货币宽松及财政刺激依然是今年的重要政策调控手段，市场对利率下行 预期增加，债市做多氛围增加。受金融市场影响及财政发债等各方面扰动，1月份之后，资金面持续维持 较高的位置，对债市形成一定偏空影响，但是由于国际地缘扰动等因素，避险情绪有所增加，叠加国内央 行及财政逆周期调节预期，债市做多氛围增加。股债跷跷板及股债双牛逻辑是否会有所切换，需要持续关 注。 关注因素：1.股债跷跷板 2.资金面扰动 3.经济数据情况 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - This week (2026.1.19 - 2026.1.23), the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 declined by 1.3bp from 1.843% last Friday to 1.83% this Friday. The bond market returned to a narrow - range oscillation. Considering the "stock - bond seesaw" and the configuration power at the beginning of the year, it is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate within the range of 1.8% - 1.9% next week, and may approach the lower limit of the range, but lacks the power to break through [1][10][14]. - Overseas, gold has experienced a "perfect storm" this week with a weekly increase of over 8.4%. It is difficult to conclude that the gold price will reach an inflection point until the central bank's gold - buying wave subsides, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy changes, and the strong fiscal spending scenario reverses. The probability of reaching a stationary point depends on the "opportunity cost" in the medium - term [1][18]. - The US labor market is in a mild adjustment stage, with marginal pressure on employment. The inflation shows a mild cooling trend, and the Fed's short - term reason for cutting interest rates is further insufficient. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in January is 2.8%, and it may suspend interest rate cuts [1][18][20]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogues 3.1. One - Week Views 3.1.1. Domestic Bond Market - **Weekly Review**: From Monday to Friday, affected by economic data release, LPR announcement, central bank operations, and market sentiment, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury active bond 250016 showed fluctuations, with a cumulative decline of 1.3bp [10][11]. - **Weekly Thinking**: The bond market oscillated narrowly. The "stock - bond seesaw" limited the decline of bond yields, while the configuration power at the beginning of the year drove the interest rate down. The 2025 economic data showed that GDP achieved the annual target, but the structural contradiction of "strong production, weak demand" still existed. The central bank's over - quantity renewal of MLF reduced the probability of a reserve requirement ratio cut before the Spring Festival. It is expected that the 10 - year Treasury yield will fluctuate within 1.8% - 1.9% next week [14][15]. 3.1.2. Overseas Market - **Gold Market**: Gold had a significant weekly increase. It is difficult to determine the inflection point of the gold price until certain conditions change. The probability of reaching a stationary point depends on the "opportunity cost" [18]. - **US Economic Data and Fed Policy**: The US labor market showed marginal pressure, inflation cooled mildly, and the Fed's short - term reason for cutting interest rates was insufficient. The probability of a rate cut in January was 2.8%, and the first rate cut was expected to be postponed to mid - 2026 [18][20]. 3.2. Domestic and Overseas Data Summaries 3.2.1. Liquidity Tracking - **Open Market Operations**: From January 19 to 23, 2026, the total net investment in the open market was 11,295 billion yuan, including reverse repurchase and MLF operations [30]. - **Interest Rate Comparison**: Comparisons of money market interest rates, interest rate corridors, and yields of various bonds were presented, showing the changes in interest rates [35][37][41]. 3.2.2. Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Commodity Prices**: Steel prices declined, while LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices generally increased. Prices of coal, vegetables, and crude oil also showed different trends [51]. 3.3. One - Week Review of Local Government Bonds 3.3.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 26 local government bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 231.57 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.41 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 203.16 billion yuan. The bonds were mainly issued by 5 provinces and cities, and 3 provinces issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts [64][68][71]. - **Early Redemption**: The total early redemption scale of urban investment bonds this week was 740 million yuan, involving 3 provinces [72]. 3.3.2. Secondary Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local government bonds was 55.02 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 36.6054 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.67%. The top three provinces with active trading were Zhejiang, Liaoning, and Guangdong, and the top three active terms were 10Y, 30Y, and 20Y [81]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local government bonds generally increased this week [83]. 3.3.3. Local Government Bond Issuance Plan for This Month The local government bond issuance plan was presented, but specific content was not detailed in the summary [88]. 3.4. One - Week Review of the Credit Bond Market 3.4.1. Primary Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 374 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 331.369 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 187.874 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 143.494 billion yuan, an increase of 103.506 billion yuan compared with last week [87]. - **Sub - type Issuance**: Urban investment bonds had a net financing deficit of 2.052 billion yuan, while industrial bonds had a net financing of 16.4014 billion yuan. By bond type, short - term financing bonds had a net financing of 4.2019 billion yuan, medium - term notes had a net financing of 6.3494 billion yuan, enterprise bonds had a net financing deficit of 310 million yuan, corporate bonds had a net financing of 4.9499 billion yuan, and private placement notes had a net financing deficit of 841.8 million yuan [90][94]. 3.4.2. Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types and their changes were presented [102]. 3.4.3. Secondary Market Transaction Overview The trading volume of credit bonds in the secondary market was 650.547 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [103]. 3.4.4. Yield to Maturity - **Government - backed Bonds**: The yields of state - owned development bonds generally declined this week [104]. - **Credit Bonds**: The yields of short - term financing bonds and medium - term notes declined across the board, the yields of enterprise bonds showed a differentiated trend, and the yields of urban investment bonds declined across the board [104][105][106]. 3.4.5. Credit Spreads - **Short - term Financing Bonds and Medium - term Notes**: The credit spreads generally showed a downward trend [107]. - **Enterprise Bonds**: The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend [108]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The credit spreads showed a differentiated trend [110]. 3.4.6. Grade Spreads - **Short - term Financing Bonds and Medium - term Notes**: The grade spreads showed a differentiated trend [113]. - **Enterprise Bonds**: The grade spreads generally widened [115]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: The grade spreads showed a differentiated trend [118]. 3.4.7. Trading Activity The top five most actively traded bonds of each type were listed, and the industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds [125][126]. 3.4.8. Changes in Subject Ratings The subject rating of Qingdao Haifa State - owned Capital Investment and Operation Group Co., Ltd. was raised to A+ with a stable outlook [130].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the banking wealth management industry Core Insights - A new wave of fee reductions has emerged in the banking wealth management sector, with several institutions lowering management and sales service fees, some to as low as 0.01% per year or even zero [3][11] - The fee reduction trend is driven by three main factors: the beginning of the year marketing push, the declining deposit rates highlighting the attractiveness of wealth management products, and intensified competition leading to fee reductions as a direct competitive strategy [11][12] - The introduction of innovative products, such as the "HeTai Weekly Open 1" by Zhaoyin Wealth Management, which features a "micro-wave fixed income+" strategy and a weekly holding period, aims to attract investors through temporary fee discounts [4][13] Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a significant fee reduction trend in the banking wealth management sector, with multiple institutions participating in lowering fees, primarily focusing on management and sales service fees [3][11] - The fee reductions are often temporary, lasting from a few weeks to the entire year of 2026, aimed at enhancing product attractiveness and driving sales growth [11] - The report notes that the ultra-low fee model may not be sustainable in the long term, as it could erode the profitability of wealth management companies, particularly smaller institutions [12] Peer Innovation Dynamics - Zhaoyin Wealth Management launched a new product called "HeTai Weekly Open 1," which employs a "micro-wave fixed income+" strategy and allows weekly subscriptions while requiring a one-year holding period for redemptions [4][13] - Zhongyou Wealth Management has invested in the IPOs of domestic GPU company BiRan Technology and AI company MiniMax, indicating a strategic focus on AI infrastructure and applications [4][14] Yield Performance - The annualized yield for cash management products was recorded at 1.26%, a decrease of 4 basis points week-on-week, while money market funds reported a yield of 1.16%, down 2 basis points [5][15] - Most pure fixed-income products saw an increase in yields, while yields for fixed-income plus products generally declined [5][19] - The report anticipates continued pressure on yields for wealth management products due to ongoing valuation adjustments and a low-interest-rate environment [20] Net Value Tracking - The net value ratio for banking wealth management products was 0.82%, a decrease of 0.19 percentage points week-on-week, with credit spreads also narrowing [6][26] - The report emphasizes the need to monitor credit spread trends closely, as an expansion could put upward pressure on the net value ratio [28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - Affected by the stock market, the Political Bureau meeting signaled loose monetary policy, the LPR remained unchanged, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation continued while the uncertainty of global trade increased the uncertainty of foreign capital inflows. Overall, the bond market oscillates between stable growth and loose expectations, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy signals at the end of the month [3] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - Price indicators: China's monthly CPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and 0.80% year - on - year increase, while the monthly PPI had a 0.20% month - on - month increase and - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [8] - Monthly economic indicators: The social financing scale was 442.12 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.05 trillion yuan and a growth rate of 0.47%; M2 year - on - year was 8.50%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.50% and a growth rate of 6.25%; the manufacturing PMI was 50.10%, with a month - on - month increase of 0.90% and a growth rate of 1.83% [9] - Daily economic indicators: The US dollar index was 98.55, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 and a decline rate of 0.49%; the offshore US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 6.9551, with a month - on - month increase of 0.001 and a growth rate of 0.02%; SHIBOR 7 - day was 1.48, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.09%; DR007 was 1.49, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 and a growth rate of 1.19%; R007 was 1.68, with a month - on - month increase of 0.17 and a growth rate of 11.44%; the 3 - month AAA - rated inter - bank certificate of deposit was 1.60, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13%; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) was 0.09, with a month - on - month increase of 0.00 and a growth rate of 0.13% [10] II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - Relevant charts include the closing price trend of the main continuous contracts of treasury bond futures, the price change rates of various treasury bond futures varieties, the trend of the settled funds of various treasury bond futures varieties, the position - holding ratio of various treasury bond futures varieties, the net position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the long - short position - holding ratio of the top 20 of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between China Development Bank bonds and treasury bonds, and the issuance of treasury bonds [11][14][17][20] III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - Relevant charts include the trend of Shibor rates, the trend of the maturity yields of AAA - rated inter - bank certificates of deposit, the transaction statistics of inter - bank pledged repurchase, and the issuance of local government bonds [27][28] IV. Spread Overview - Relevant charts include the inter - term spread trend of various treasury bond futures varieties, the spread between the spot - bond term spread and the futures cross - variety spread (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), (2*TF - T), (3*T - TL), and (2*TS - 3*TF + T) [32][36][37] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of two - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TS main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TS main contract [39][43][48] VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied interest rate and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of five - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TF main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TF main contract [49][54] VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of ten - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the T main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the T main contract [55][56] VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - Relevant charts include the implied yield and the treasury bond maturity yield of the main contract of thirty - year treasury bond futures, the IRR of the TL main contract and the funding rate, and the three - year basis trend and net basis trend of the TL main contract [61][67]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium-sized indexes have a supplementary decline, and the market sentiment has cooled down. The A-share market may enter a period of oscillation. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re-entry opportunities [2]. Treasury Bond Futures - The bond market may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply-demand situation in the first quarter. In the short term, it may still be in an oscillatory pattern. The 10-year bond interest rate may oscillate in the range of 1.82%-1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6-108.3. Unilateral strategies should maintain range operations, and attention should be paid to positive spreads of TS, T, and TF contracts and strategies to widen basis spreads in the spot-futures strategy [2]. Precious Metals - Affected by macro geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong oscillation of gold prices. Gold above the 20-day moving average should continue to hold long positions; for silver, participate cautiously on a single side and sell out-of-the-money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; for platinum, use an option double-selling strategy; for palladium, sell out-of-the-money call options above 510 yuan [2]. Commodity Sector Metals - For steel, the weakening of raw material prices may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000-3200, and that of hot-rolled coil is 3150-3350. Long the steel-iron ore ratio and long the hot-rolled coil-rebar spread [2]. - For iron ore, the supply is in the off-season, and the port inventory continues to accumulate. It will have a wide-range oscillation in the range of 770-830 [2]. - For coke and coking coal, the coking coal price in Shanxi has more increases than decreases, and the Mongolian coal price has fallen from a high level. The coke price of mainstream coking enterprises starts to increase, and the port trade price has fallen. Both are expected to oscillate weakly, with the coking coal in the range of 1000-1150 and coke in the range of 1600-1750 [2]. - For non-ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. For example, copper should wait for adjustment to complete and then enter long positions; aluminum should wait for a callback to layout long positions; zinc should focus on the support around 23800 and take a long position at low prices in the long term; tin should participate cautiously in the short term and try a long position at low prices after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. Energy and Chemicals - For industrial silicon, the spot price is stable, and the futures price oscillates weakly, with the main contract in the range of 8200-9200. For polysilicon, the average spot price has a small increase, and the futures price oscillates strongly. For lithium carbonate, the supply-side disturbance expectation rises again, and the price runs strongly. In the short term, wait and see, and in the medium term, go long at low prices [2]. - For PX, the supply-demand situation is weak in the near term and strong in the long term. It will oscillate at a high level in the short term, with the range of 7000-7500. For PTA, it will oscillate in the range of 4900-5300 in the short term, and go long below 5000. For short fiber, the supply-demand expectation is weak, and it follows the raw material fluctuation. For bottle chips, multiple bottle chip devices are under maintenance, and the factory inventory continues to decrease, which supports the processing fee [2]. - For ethanol, there is seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near-term supply-demand expectation is weak. The price of MEG in January is still under pressure. For pure benzene, the supply-demand situation has improved, but the high inventory suppresses the driving force. For styrene, the supply-demand is temporarily tight, but the rebound space is limited under high valuation [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybean meal, the market lacks driving force, and it oscillates weakly. For live pigs, it is difficult for the white-striped pork price to follow the increase, and the futures price is under pressure. For corn, there are both support and pressure, and it runs in a high-level range. For palm oil, boosted by exports, it tries to break through the annual resistance line [2]. - For sugar, the end of the stocking period is approaching, and the terminal demand is lower than expected. For cotton, the spot performance is strong, and the price continues to adjust. For eggs, the market performance varies, and the price continues to adjust. For apples, the trading has improved, and the futures price has stopped falling and stabilized. For jujubes, the demand is weak, and the futures price has weakened [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - A-share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, market sentiment cools down, and volatility converges. A - shares may enter a shock period. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] - Due to the cooling of the stock market and the influence of the stock - bond seesaw, the bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market trend may mainly depend on the policy strength and supply - demand situation in the first quarter, and it may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies still maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] - Affected by macro - geopolitical events, the weakening of assets such as the US dollar supports the strong shock of gold prices, but the domestic price is weaker than the overseas market due to the appreciation of the RMB. Hold long positions of gold above the 20 - day moving average; be cautious in participating in silver unilaterally and sell out - of - the - money options to earn volatility reduction benefits; platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, and an option double - selling strategy can be adopted. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Sector Stock Index Futures - The A - share market has large trading divergence, small and medium - cap indices have a supplementary decline, and market sentiment cools down. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, reduce long positions, and wait for re - entry opportunities [2] Bond Futures - Due to the cooling of the stock market, bond futures fluctuate and rise. The bond market may remain in a shock pattern in the short term. The 10 - year bond interest rate may fluctuate in the range of 1.82% - 1.88%, and the T2603 contract may fluctuate in the range of 107.6 - 108.3. Unilateral strategies maintain range operations, and pay attention to the positive spread of TS, T, and TF contracts and the strategy of widening the basis in the spot - futures strategy [2] Precious Metals - Gold is supported by geopolitical events and maintains a strong shock, but the domestic price is weaker due to RMB appreciation. Hold long positions above the 20 - day moving average. For silver, be cautious in unilateral participation and sell out - of - the - money options. Platinum fluctuates strongly above the 20 - day moving average, with a fluctuation range of 587 - 640 yuan, and an option double - selling strategy can be used. Gold performs weaker than platinum and can sell out - of - the - money call options above 510 yuan [2] Non - Ferrous Metals and Building Materials Sector Steel and Iron Ore - Raw material prices weaken, which may drag down the steel price center. The fluctuation range of rebar is 3000 - 3200, and that of hot - rolled coil is 3150 - 3350. Iron ore prices are weak, and it is recommended to hold long positions in the steel - ore ratio and long positions in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread. Iron ore is in the off - season of supply, and ports are continuously accumulating inventory, with a wide - range shock in the range of 770 - 830 [2] Coal and Coke - The coal price in Shanxi origin rises more and falls less, and the Mongolian coal price falls from a high level. The coking coal futures price has over - anticipated. It is considered to be in a weak shock unilaterally, with a range of 1000 - 1150. Mainstream coke enterprises start to raise prices, while the port trade price falls. The coke futures price has over - anticipated, with a weak shock in the range of 1600 - 1750 [2] Other Non - Ferrous Metals - For aluminum oxide, the spot accumulates 7.9 tons weekly, and the futures price fluctuates and falls. The main contract runs in the range of 2600 - 2900, and it is recommended to sell short at high prices. For aluminum, the spot trading is cold, and there is a risk of emotional correction in the short term. The main contract runs in the range of 23000 - 25000, and it is recommended to lay out long positions after the correction [2] Energy and Chemical Sector Petrochemical Products - PX has a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation, with a short - term high - level shock in the range of 7000 - 7500, and a rolling low - buying strategy can be adopted. PTA has a seasonal inventory accumulation expectation, with a short - term shock in the range of 4900 - 5300, and it is recommended to buy low below 5000 and conduct a low - level positive spread for the 5 - 9 contract [2] Other Chemical Products - Ethanol has a seasonal inventory accumulation, and the near - term supply - demand expectation is weak. It is recommended to conduct a high - level reverse spread for the 5 - 9 contract and sell out - of - the - money call options. Pure benzene has improved supply - demand but is restricted by high inventory. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities for BZ2603 and shrink the EB - BZ spread at high levels [2] Agricultural Products Sector Grains and Oils - Bean meal lacks market drivers and runs weakly in a shock. Palm oil is boosted by exports and tries to break through the annual - line resistance, and may try to break through 8900 [2] Livestock and Poultry Products - The price of pork belly has difficulty rising, and the futures price of live pigs is under pressure, running in a shock range. The egg price continues to adjust and runs in a shock range [2] Other Agricultural Products - At the end of the sugar stocking period, the terminal demand is lower than expected, and the price runs weakly in a shock. The cotton price continues to adjust and runs at a high level in a shock. The apple futures price stops falling and stabilizes, and it is recommended to buy put options [2]

Report Information - Date: January 19, 2026 [3] - Researcher: Shi Xiuming, Cao Baoqin, Kuai Sanke, Cong Yanfei [3] Core Views - The change in the likely candidate for the Fed Chair may disrupt the expectation of monetary easing, slightly increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. However, excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - The national pig price is rising, especially in the Northeast, Central, and East China regions. The pig price is expected to move up, but there are risks of decline [2]. - The fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally, with spot prices having upward momentum, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The inventory pressure of iron ore is gradually building up. The supply side has potential disruptions, and the pre - holiday restocking on the demand side supports the price. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [4]. - The demand for construction materials will seasonally weaken, but steel production will continue to recover. Rebar will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - The crude oil market has an oversupply pressure. Without geopolitical drivers, the oil price is difficult to maintain strength. Short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - The demand for asphalt is still weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. It is recommended to wait and see during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - The supply of soybeans and soybean meal is ample in the first quarter. Weak breeding demand restricts the spot price. Soybean meal is expected to decline with fluctuations in the short - term [7]. - The palm oil price is supported by the upcoming decision on 2026 biofuel blending quotas in the US, but is weakened by the expected opening of Canadian rapeseed imports. It is recommended to trade within a range [7]. - The supply of synthetic rubber remains high, and the cost has increased significantly. However, the downstream resistance to high prices is strong. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - The structural monetary easing makes the general reserve requirement ratio cut and interest rate cut difficult to implement in the short - term. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased. Treasury bonds are expected to fluctuate [9]. - The domestic methanol market has high production and weak demand. The port inventory has decreased significantly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [10]. - The supply of plastics is expected to remain high, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly in the short - term [11]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable with fluctuations. New production capacity puts pressure on the price. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term [12]. - The copper market has a complex situation with supply growth concerns and inventory accumulation. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - The aluminum market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality". The price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [15] Summary by Variety Precious Metals - **Silver**: The possible change of the Fed Chair candidate may disrupt monetary easing expectations, increasing risk - aversion and strengthening precious metals. Excessive bullishness on silver is not recommended [2]. - **Gold**: Geopolitical disturbances have slightly decreased, but uncertainties remain. The uncertainty of the Fed Chair candidate increases risk - aversion. Excessive bullishness on gold is not recommended [11]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: As of January 16, the average weight of live pigs for slaughter was 123.5 kg, up 0.18 kg. The weekly slaughter rate was 35.83%, down 0.08%. The national pig price is rising, especially in some regions. The price is expected to move up with decline risks [2]. - **Soybean Meal**: As of January 16, the physical inventory of soybean meal in feed enterprises was 9.94 days, up 0.41 days from the previous period. The supply is ample in Q1, and the price is restricted by weak demand. It is expected to decline with fluctuations [6][7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month. It has a situation of "weak reality and strong expectation" and is recommended for range trading [7]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: As of January 16, the number of US online drilling oil wells was 410, up 1 from the previous week. The market has oversupply pressure, and short - selling in the short - term is recommended [5]. - **Asphalt**: As of January 16, the weekly production was 49.7 tons, up 4.44 tons. The demand is weak, but the change in Venezuelan crude oil export may support the supply side. Wait - and - see is recommended during the short - term crude oil adjustment [6]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: As of January 16, the weekly capacity utilization rate of butadiene was 69.42%, down 1.89% from the previous week. The supply remains high, the cost has increased, and the downstream resists high prices. It is expected to fluctuate [8]. - **Methanol**: The market price in Jiangsu Taicang was 2225 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton. The domestic production is high, the demand is weak, and the port inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. - **Plastic**: The mainstream price of North China LLDPE was 6916 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton. The supply is expected to remain high, the demand is weak, and it is expected to be under pressure and fluctuate weakly [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The national mainstream price of heavy - duty soda ash was 1234 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The production is high, the new capacity pressure is large, and the demand is average. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [12]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: The inventory of coking coal in 247 steel mills was 802.2 tons, up 4.47 tons. The downstream winter - storage demand is increasing, and the supply will decrease. The fundamentals will improve, but the futures market is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in steel mills was 9262.22 tons, up 272.63 tons. The inventory pressure is building up, and the price is expected to fluctuate [4]. - **Rebar**: The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 78.84%, down 0.47 percentage points. The demand will seasonally weaken, and it will experience seasonal inventory accumulation. The price is expected to fluctuate [5]. - **Copper**: First Quantum Minerals slightly lowered the copper production guidance for 2026 - 2027. The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation [13]. - **Aluminum**: Ghana's aluminum project has new financing. The market has a situation of "strong expectation and weak reality", and the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [14][15]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The central bank has lowered the re - loan and re - discount rates. The bond market's bullish sentiment has decreased, and it is expected to fluctuate [9].