积极面： Q1财报已公布四分之三，这些是市场抓到的趋势 随着第一季度财报季已完成超过四分之三，以下是卖方研究中一些最值得关注的要点。 整体情况： 截至目前，第一季度财报表现远好于预期，盈利增长达到+12%，是原先预期+6%的两倍，也明显优于 去年同期7%的每股收益增长。 企业普遍不愿提供前瞻性指引，即使有也维持现有水平。只有17%的标普500公司提供了下季度指引， 略低于平均水平；而有45%的公司提供了全年（FY1）指引，基本符合平均水平。在提供FY1指引的公 司中，维持之前指引比例高于平均。我们认为这种现象部分反映了企业在关税政策不确定性下，不愿贸 然调整指引。例如，部分公司在财报电话会议中提到其最新指引尚未反映关税影响（如 ABBV、 LKQ、MMM）。 利润率好于预期（尽管市场已预期较高），是目前正面惊喜的主因，平均每股收益超预期幅度为5%， 而销售额仅为1%。利润率通常是衰退的领先指标（利润率下滑往往意味着成本削减增加）。 负面： 高盛的销售与资本支出预测修正广度追踪指标显示，不确定性开始影响需求与投资（尽管还未达到最近 几次衰退的水平）。高盛预期市场对一致预期将进一步下调，但由于投资者已普遍意识到当 ...

联系人： 陈达飞 摘要 特朗普"对等关税"的幅度和演绎大超市场预期，引发金融市场巨震。关税的经济冲击有多大、后续如何 演绎？美国经济的衰退前景如何、金融市场的流动性的"压力测试"是否会再次上演？ 一、关税冲击的动态路径：从"滞胀"到"衰退" 按照2024年进口商品加权结算，美国所有商品的平均关税税率已经升至27%（考虑豁免后为24%）。 北 京时间4月3日，美国"对等关税"落地，税率水平大超市场预期，叠加后续中美双边关税的升级，平均税 率已经升至27%。其中，特朗普政府对中国加征的关税税率已经升至146.2%，贡献了27%当中的20个百 分点，其他国家合计贡献了7个百分点 。 关税的经济效应表现为"滞胀"。当下，市场的分歧在于滞和胀的强弱比较、动态特征和美联储货币政策 的反应。 动态而言，基于41个国家的跨国比较研究结果显示，关税对"滞"和"胀"的影响量级基本对称、 均在大约4个季度后达到峰值，但早期通胀上行的斜率更陡。定量而言，如果关税导致进口中间品和终端 品成本增加10%，当年CPI通胀将分别上升0.3%和0.5% 。 关税对经济的影响正在逐步显现。如果关税水平保持不变（或有限缓和），美国经济衰退的概率或 ...

在美联储本周再次召开议息会议之际，它面临的最大问题是如何努力应对关税引发的粘性通胀与经济放 缓之间的"拉锯战"，以及一位想要更宽松货币政策的美国总统。 美联储对于这个困境的解决方式，可能意味着美国未来几个月的利率走向。 他对美联储主席鲍威尔的谨慎态度不满，鲍威尔曾表示，美联储将"等待更明朗的情况"，同时权衡其稳 定物价和充分就业的双重使命。他上月表示，经济在"今年剩余时间，或者至少不会取得太大进展"的情 况下，将极有可能偏离美联储的两个目标。 上周公布的经济、就业和通胀新报告加剧了美联储面临的困境。GDP报告显示，美国经济在2025年初出 现三年来的首次萎缩，这主要归因于进口商为了赶在特朗普总统关税生效前抢购；上周五公布的4月就 业报告也显示，即使在特朗普"解放日"声明震动市场后的几周内，劳动力市场依然保持韧性。 美联储偏好的通胀指标显示，3月物价年化增长率放缓至2.6%，但该季度仍高于预期的3.5%。这两个数 据都高于美联储2%的目标。 一些经济学家预计未来几个月通胀将进一步走高，经济将进一步下滑。 "拉锯战" 美国总统特朗普近几周已明确表达了他的观点：他希望在经济可能因其贸易政策放缓之前降息。 Wilmi ...

Group 1 - The market narrative is expected to oscillate between recession and stagflation until trade issues are resolved, the Federal Reserve begins to ease policies, or inflationary pressures fail to build [1] - Investors are increasingly concerned about the economic growth outlook, leading to expectations of declining yields [1] - BMO Capital Markets analyst Ian Lyngen expresses concerns about further weakening economic data in the short term [1] Group 2 - HSBC strategists, including Nicole Inui, highlight the need for clarity on economic conditions to stabilize market expectations [1]

华尔街又一机构"认栽"，这次是汇丰银行。 在这种环境下，汇丰建议投资者保持防御性持仓，偏好经济下行中抗压能力较强的行业，例如消费必需 品(如食品、日用品)与医疗保健。在滞涨时期，大宗商品与医疗行业的表现也通常优于大盘；相反，公 用事业和可选消费品公司往往表现不佳。 智通财经APP获悉，由于对美国经济增长放缓、通胀持续粘性以及债券收益率下滑的预期，汇丰周二宣 布将标普500指数的年底目标点位从6700点大幅下调至5600点。 这一决定与今年以来多家大银行因关税担忧而调低美股预期的动作一致。汇丰表示，在全球经济前景依 旧不明、关税政策仍具不确定性的情况下，建议客户采取防御性策略应对市场动荡。 汇丰美洲区股票策略主管Nicole Inui与分析师Preethkar Rajamani在报告中指出："市场将在衰退和滞涨的 担忧之间来回震荡，直到贸易不确定性缓解、美联储降息、或通胀压力不再加剧。" 他们预计美联储将在6月启动降息周期，但指出通胀与关税方面的忧虑仍需数月时间才能消散。因此， 即使利率政策出现转向，市场仍会高度关注关键经济数据，并据此进行敏感反应。 他们表示："如果硬数据转弱，市场将迅速进入'衰退交易'模式； ...

欧洲央行仍具有逐步降息的空间。 2025年和2026年，关税并不会在欧洲引发更多通胀。 欧洲央行管委兼法国央行行长Villeroy：关税并没有在欧洲引起额外通胀。 不认为法国或者欧洲会陷入衰退。 ...

由于关税引发的衰退和滞胀风险，摩根大通认为，黄金的结构性牛市将继续增强。 摩根大通Gregory C. Shearer团队在22日的研报中预测， 黄金价格将于2025年第四季度达到均价3675美元/盎司，并在2026年第二季度突破4000美元/盎司关 口。 | Figure 1: JPM gold & silver price forecasts | | --- | | | | 4Q2024A | A WE SCHERESS: WARRENDER BREIN SECTION SECTION SEE WINNER 2024A | 1Q2025A | 202025 | 3Q2025 | 4Q2025 | 2025 | 1Q2026 | 2Q2026 | 3Q2026 | 4Q2026 | 2026 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | New | 2,664 | 2,389 | 2,872 | 3.400 | 3,515 | 3 675 | 3,365 | 3,840 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential economic impacts of recent tariff increases by the U.S., suggesting that the U.S. may face recession or stagflation, while China could continue its M-shaped recovery. Countries with significant trade exposure may experience economic headwinds. The recommendation is to overweight gold and Chinese bonds, while underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities [1][4][12]. Tariff Impact - The U.S. has announced a general 10% tariff on imports, with countries having large trade deficits facing tariffs exceeding 30%. This escalation in tariffs has exceeded market expectations, leading to a risk-off sentiment in global assets, resulting in declines in global stocks and commodities [3][4]. - The tariff impact was anticipated, as previous analyses indicated that the market underestimated the negative effects of Trump's policies, predicting that the U.S. economy would struggle to maintain a balanced growth path [5][11]. Economic Outlook - The U.S. economy is expected to face a downward trend, with consumption and investment showing signs of decline. The potential paths for the U.S. economy include stagflation (high inflation and low growth) and recession (low inflation and low growth) [11][12]. - In contrast, China's economy is projected to follow a "weak recovery" path, supported by policy stimulus, with expectations of an M-shaped growth trajectory similar to the previous year. China's inflation remains significantly lower than that of the U.S., allowing for more flexibility in counter-cyclical policies [11][12]. Asset Allocation Recommendations - To mitigate the negative impacts of tariffs, the recommendation is to overweight safe assets such as gold and Chinese bonds. Historical data shows that safe assets tend to perform well during significant declines in U.S. stocks [12][13]. - Gold is highlighted as a key asset due to its inflation-hedging properties, with projections suggesting a long-term price range of $3,000 to $5,000 per ounce. Recent price declines are attributed to market sentiment rather than liquidity issues [17][19]. - The recommendation for U.S. bonds is cautious due to high uncertainty, while Chinese bonds are expected to perform well as monetary policy may counteract the negative effects of tariffs [19][20]. Stock Market Strategy - The article advises underweighting U.S. stocks and commodities, with a focus on high-dividend and policy-benefiting stocks in China. The recent declines in U.S. stock indices, such as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, indicate a significant adjustment risk [20][22]. - Historical analysis suggests that after a 20% decline in U.S. stocks, there may be opportunities for technical rebounds, but these often occur after clear policy shifts [20][22]. Conclusion on Global Economic Dynamics - The economic performance of countries outside the U.S. may depend on their trade exposure to the U.S. and the extent of tariff increases. Countries with high reliance on exports to the U.S. may face significant economic risks due to the tariff pressures [11][12][26]. - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring the evolving economic landscape and adjusting investment strategies accordingly, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions and their implications for global markets [11][12][26].

以下文章来源于睿知睿见 ，作者睿知睿见 睿知睿见 . 一个好的投资者，其能量一定的积极的，向上的，乐观的！ 别人看着他，就像看着太阳！ 他还能用朴 实易懂的语言，传递正确的投资理念！ 长按即可参与 风险提示：本文所提到的观点仅代表个人的意见，所涉及标的不作推荐，据此买卖，风险自负。 作者： 睿知睿见 来源：雪球 从特朗普胜选后，市场对美国经济的预期就在不断的发生变化。 一会认为会再通胀，一会认为会滞胀，一会认为会 衰退。 为什么市场的预期会变来变去呢？ 第三，商品价格大幅上涨，导致居民需求大幅下降，需求下降的速度更快，最终就会引发衰退。 也就是说， 商品价格上涨的幅度不同，导致的结果就不同。 一、市场预期的变化 在特朗普胜选前，市场根据民调已经预期特朗普会胜出了。 市场知道，一旦特朗普胜出，拜登政府就会突击式花钱，所以开始交易再通胀，2年美债利率上 升。 特朗普胜出后就再一个劲的鼓吹自己会创纪录式的加征关税，虽然市场认为特朗普会加税，但不 会有他说的那么离谱，于是开始交易滞胀，2年美债利率横着走。 特朗普上台后，出招一次比一次狠，这就让市场认为特朗普不是闹着玩的，于是开始交易衰退，2 年美债利率下跌，美股下跌 ...

Investment Strategy - The report highlights that the recent implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. is expected to increase global trade costs, leading to potential inflationary or recessionary pressures on the global economy [1][8] - The tariffs include a 10% minimum baseline tariff and higher tariffs on specific countries, with China facing a 34% tariff, which could exacerbate external demand challenges for China [7][8] Short-term and Mid-term Market Impact - In the short term, risk appetite is likely to be under pressure due to inflation or recession narratives, impacting asset pricing and increasing demand for safe-haven assets [3][10] - Historical data suggests that after tariff announcements, the A-share market may experience initial pressure followed by potential rebounds, depending on new catalysts [10] - Mid-term asset pricing will revert to fundamentals, with the actual impact of tariffs and retaliatory measures from other countries being crucial [10] Policy Response and Domestic Growth - The report emphasizes the need to monitor the actual impact of tariffs and potential policy responses, as external demand contraction may necessitate stronger domestic growth policies [2][9] - There is an expectation for increased domestic policy measures to stimulate growth, such as interest rate cuts and consumption incentives, especially if negotiations yield positive outcomes before the tariffs take effect [2][9] Asset Allocation Recommendations - The report suggests a defensive approach focusing on dividend-paying assets, as market risk appetite is expected to decline [4][11] - Key sectors to consider include telecommunications, transportation, utilities, and state-owned banks, which are likely to attract defensive capital [11] - Additionally, there is a recommendation to explore offensive opportunities in sectors that may benefit from tariff exemptions or domestic growth policies, such as local consumption and infrastructure investments [12]