美国总统特朗普表示，将在最高法院推翻此前对等关税框架后，对进口商品实施统一15%的关税。与此 同时，美国贸易代表贾米森·格里尔称，未来几天针对多个国家的关税税率可能上调至15%甚至更高。 上周美国申请失业救济金的人数增幅低于预期，这表明裁员情况仍处于较低水平。美国至2月21日当周 初请失业金人数增加4000人，达到21.2万人，预测中值为21.5万人。此次调查期间包含了总统日假期。 续请失业金人数降至183万。 当地时间2月26日，伊朗外长阿拉格齐在伊美第三轮间接谈判结束后表示，这是最严肃、持续时间最长 的一次谈判。谈判取得了良好进展，在某些领域，双方已接近达成共识。双方的技术团队将于下周一(3 月2日)在奥地利维也纳举行技术谈判。 美联储古尔斯比：利率可以下调，但不想在通胀缓解之前就提前行动。他在美联储中属于对降息持最乐 观态度的人之一。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：伊朗问题持续发酵 短期金价或仍偏强 【黄金期货最新行情】 | 2月27日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1147.90 ...

美债市场方面，基准10年期国债收益率收报4.056%，对货币政策更为敏感的2年期国债收益率维持在3.475%水平。收益率曲线的 形态显示，市场对未来利率路径的预期相对稳定，短期内政策利率大幅调整的概率较低。 展望未来，美元指数的走向将取决于多重因素的交织影响：美联储官员的政策表态、美国经济数据的实际表现、以及全球地缘政 治局势的演变。当前市场参与者正密切关注即将公布的非农就业数据和制造业活动指标，这些数据将为判断经济动能提供重要线 索。在缺乏明确催化剂的情况下，美元指数或继续维持区间整理格局。 从货币政策预期角度分析，当前市场普遍预期美联储将维持利率水平至少至年中。这种预期基于对美国经济数据的综合判断：一 方面，劳动力市场虽显现降温迹象，但失业率仍处于历史相对低位；另一方面，通胀水平虽较峰值明显回落，但核心通胀的粘性 特征使得政策制定者倾向于保持观望姿态。 值得注意的是，美元指数的波动与风险资产价格走势呈现出一定的负相关性。当市场风险偏好回升时，美元往往承压；而当避险 情绪升温时，美元则获得支撑。这种动态关系在周四的交易中表现得尤为明显，美股科技股的回调在一定程度上支撑了美元的反 弹。 外汇市场上，美元指数在 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2606 | TS2609 | TF2606 | TF2609 | T2606 | T2609 | TL2606 | TL2609 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.432 | 102.464 | 105.980 | 105.815 | 108.370 | 108.370 | 112.09 | 111.87 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.458 | 102.488 | 106.065 | 105.905 | 108.480 | 108.490 | 112.7 | 112.5 | | | 涨跌 | -0.026 | -0.024 | -0.085 | -0.090 | -0.110 | -0.120 | -0.610 | -0.630 | | | 涨跌幅 | -0.0 ...

金融研究 2026年2月27日 星期五 金融期货早班车 招商期货有限公司 市场表现：2 月 26 日，A 股四大股指涨跌不一，其中上证指数下跌 0.01%，报收 4146.63 点；深成 指上涨 0.19%，报收 14503.79 点；创业板指下跌 0.29%，报收 3344.98 点；科创 50 指数上涨 0.85%， 报收 1485.86 点。市场成交 25,566 亿元，较前日增加 757 亿元。行业板块方面，通信(+2.84%)，电 子(+1.98%)，国防军工(+1.52%)表现较好；房地产(-2.25%)，传媒(-1.45%)，非银金融(-1.42%)表现 一般。从市场强弱看，IM>IC>IF>IH，个股涨/平/跌数分别为 2,482/131/2,866。沪深两市，机构、主 力、大户、散户全天资金分别净流入-107、-193、88、213 亿元，分别变动-167、-18、+170、+15 亿元。 股指期货 基差：IM、IC、IF、IH 次月合约基差分别为 92.42、42.22、20.27 与-1.33 点，基差年化收益率分别 为-7.56%、-3.43%、-2.98%与 0.3%，三年期历史分位 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report In the short - term, the market may enter an oscillation and volatility - reduction cycle. The overall market atmosphere is under certain suppression, but in the medium - to - long - term, the commodity bull market is expected to continue. Different industries have their own supply - demand situations and influencing factors, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed based on these [39][45]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance Stock Index - **Market Information**: The annualized basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for current month, next month, current quarter, and next quarter are presented. For example, IF's ratios are 4.70%/2.97%/5.48%/4.74% [2]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by factors such as the US - Iran conflict, US tariff policy, RMB exchange rate, and AI business, the stock index is expected to have a relatively strong performance [3]. Treasury Bond - **Market Information**: The closing prices and changes of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts on Thursday are provided. There are also news about Sino - US economic and trade consultations and the stance of the Bank of Japan. The central bank conducted 320.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 79.5 billion yuan [4]. - **Strategy View**: Although inflation recovery has potential suppression on the bond market, and the endogenous power of economic recovery is not stable, the capital side is expected to remain loose. The bond market is expected to continue to oscillate [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of Shanghai gold and silver, COMEX gold and silver have declined. The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are reported. The precious metal prices are in horizontal consolidation, with support from Trump's tariff plan and the US - Iran nuclear negotiation, and resistance from the Fed's officials' statements and the expectation of stable US short - term interest rates [7]. - **Strategy View**: The precious metal prices are expected to remain in high - level oscillation. It is recommended to wait and see, with the reference ranges of 11,300 - 12,000 yuan/gram for Shanghai gold and 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/kilogram for Shanghai silver [9]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Affected by the US - Iran negotiation and other factors, copper prices are in oscillatory adjustment. LME inventory has increased, and domestic social and bonded area inventories have also changed. The spot discount in the East China region has expanded [11]. - **Strategy View**: The US tariff policy provides emotional support, but the refined copper supply is relatively excessive. Short - term copper prices are expected to be oscillatory, with reference ranges of 101,000 - 103,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai copper and 13,100 - 13,400 US dollars/ton for LME copper [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices have adjusted. LME inventory has decreased, and domestic inventory has increased. The spot discount in the East China region has narrowed [13]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term price support is strong. The reference ranges are 23,400 - 23,900 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum and 3,100 - 3,170 US dollars/ton for LME aluminum [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: Zinc prices have declined. The social inventory of zinc ingots in China has increased, and the downstream enterprise start - up rate is average [15][16]. - **Strategy View**: The zinc industry in China shows a weak trend. Zinc prices may follow the rise of copper and aluminum prices. The zinc ore TC has stopped falling and stabilized [16]. Lead - **Market Information**: Lead prices have increased. Both domestic and foreign inventories have risen rapidly, and the industrial situation is weak [17]. - **Strategy View**: The strategic stockpiling of battery enterprises may support the lead price in the short - term. It is necessary to observe the start - up of downstream battery enterprises after the Spring Festival [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices have declined. The prices of nickel ore are stable, and the price of nickel iron has increased [18]. - **Strategy View**: The supply of nickel is shrinking, and nickel prices are expected to rise. It is recommended to go long on dips, with reference ranges of 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai nickel and 16,000 - 20,000 US dollars/ton for LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: Tin prices are in oscillatory operation. The inventory has decreased, and the supply and demand are marginally loose [20]. - **Strategy View**: Tin prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference ranges of 380,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton for domestic tin and 48,000 - 53,000 US dollars/ton for LME tin [21]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The price of lithium carbonate has increased. The production has increased, and the inventory has decreased [22]. - **Strategy View**: Affected by the export ban, the short - term spot shortage is expected to continue. It is necessary to be cautious about the increase of selling orders. The reference range for the 2605 contract is 164,000 - 180,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index has declined. The spot price in Shandong has increased, and the overseas price is stable. The inventory has increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: The over - capacity situation in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference range of 2,750 - 2,950 yuan/ton for the AO2605 contract [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: Stainless steel prices have increased. The raw material prices have changed, and the inventory has increased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The supply pressure will be relieved, and the price has a strong bottom support. It is recommended to be bullish, with a reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [28]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy has increased. The inventory has changed, and the trading volume has increased [29]. - **Strategy View**: The cost has support, and the demand is expected to improve. The short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly [30]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil have declined. The inventory and trading volume have changed [32]. - **Strategy View**: The black series is in a bottom - game stage. It is expected to oscillate within a range with a weak center of gravity in the short - term. It is necessary to focus on the demand recovery and policy trends [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: Iron ore prices have declined. Some steel enterprises in North China will implement emission reduction measures during important meetings [34]. - **Strategy View**: The overseas supply has recovered, and the demand is okay. The price is expected to oscillate weakly and stably. It is necessary to pay attention to domestic terminal demand and policy guidance [35]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke have declined. The spot prices have different changes, and the basis is positive [36]. - **Strategy View**: In the short - term, the upward catalysis of coking coal is weak. It may face a callback risk in March - May, but it may rise in the second half of 2026 [39]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: Glass prices have declined, and the inventory has increased. Soda ash prices are stable, and the inventory has increased [40][42]. - **Strategy View**: Glass is expected to oscillate, with a reference range of 1,025 - 1,100 yuan/ton. Soda ash is expected to oscillate weakly and stably, with a reference range of 1,140 - 1,200 yuan/ton [41][43]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: Manganese silicon prices have increased, and ferrosilicon prices have also risen slightly [44]. - **Strategy View**: The future market is mainly affected by the black market and cost factors. It is recommended to pay attention to manganese ore supply and "dual - carbon" policies [45][46]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Market Information**: Industrial silicon prices have declined, and polysilicon prices have also decreased [48][50]. - **Strategy View**: Industrial silicon prices are expected to be weak. Polysilicon prices are expected to oscillate weakly. It is recommended to wait and see [49][51]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices are in oscillatory operation. The start - up rates of tire enterprises are low, and the inventory has increased [53][54]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to trade according to the short - term trend of the disk and set stop - losses. It is also recommended to go long on NR and short on RU2609 [56]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: Crude oil prices have declined, and the inventory data of related products have changed [57]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits on rallies and focus on medium - term layout [58]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Methanol prices have changed, and the MTO profit has increased [59]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [60]. Urea - **Market Information**: Urea prices have changed, and the basis is negative [61]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to short urea due to the expected negative fundamentals [62]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices and basis of pure benzene and styrene have changed. The supply and demand sides have different performances [63]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to take profits gradually as the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired [64]. PVC - **Market Information**: PVC prices have declined. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak [66]. - **Strategy View**: The domestic supply - demand situation is poor, and the fundamentals are weak [67]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: Ethylene glycol prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [68]. - **Strategy View**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound [69]. PTA - **Market Information**: PTA prices have declined. The supply and demand sides have changed, and the inventory has increased [70]. - **Strategy View**: The inventory cycle is about to end. It is recommended to go long on dips in the medium - term [71]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: p - Xylene prices have declined. The load and inventory have changed [72]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on dips following crude oil in the medium - term [73]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: PE prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory has changed [74]. - **Strategy View**: The PE valuation has room to decline, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [75]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: PP prices have declined. The supply and demand sides are weak, and the inventory pressure is high [76]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [78]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: Pig prices have different changes. The actual supply pressure has been reduced [80]. - **Strategy View**: The spot price is expected to be weak, but there may be support for the far - month contracts [81]. Eggs - **Market Information**: Egg prices are mainly stable. The supply is normal, and the market digestion speed is okay [82]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term spot price decline is limited. It is recommended to wait and see or trade short - term [83]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The export and production data of soybeans in the US and Brazil are provided. The domestic soybean inventory has changed [84]. - **Strategy View**: The protein meal price may be bottoming out due to the increase in import costs [86]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The production, export, and inventory data of palm oil in Malaysia and Indonesia are provided. The domestic oil inventory has increased [87]. - **Strategy View**: The short - term soybean oil price is stronger. It is recommended to buy when the oil prices stop falling at low levels [88]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The production data of sugar in India, Brazil, and Thailand are provided. The domestic import data are also given [89][90]. - **Strategy View**: It is not advisable to be overly bearish on the international sugar market. The domestic sugar price is suppressed by high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [91]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The US cotton export data and the domestic cotton inventory data are provided [92]. - **Strategy View**: It is recommended to buy on dips if the downstream start - up rate after the Spring Festival is good [93].

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1146.480 | -4.6↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22572 | -457.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 151,642.00 | -3433.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 8,949.00 | -791.00↓ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 169,407.00 | -29130.00↓ 主力合约成交量:沪银 | 357,610.00 | -55549.00↓ | | | 仓单数量:沪金(日,千克) | 105072 | 0↑ 仓单数量:沪银(日,千克) | 346,369 | -9461↓ | | 现货市场 | 上金所黄金现货价 | 1144.51 | -1.13↓ 华通一号白银现货价 | 21,797.00 | 157.00↑ | | | 沪金主力合约基差(日,元/克) | -1.97 | 3.45↑ 沪银主力合约基差(日 ...

新华社图 根据央行此前公告，2月有3000亿元MLF到期，央行此次MLF续作加量3000亿元，为连续第12月加量续作。 东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青指出，央行2月份加量续作MLF，延续较大规模中期流动性净投放，能够有效应对潜在的流动性收紧态 势，引导资金面处于较为稳定的充裕状态。 连续第12月加量续作 王青分析，2月份有3000亿元MLF到期，意味着央行2月份MLF续作加量3000亿元，为连续第12月加量，加量规模小于上月的7000亿 元。不过，2月两个期限品种的买断式逆回购净投放6000亿元，意味着2月中期流动性净投放总额达到9000亿元，为连续第10个月净投 放，净投放规模仅略低于上月的1万亿元，继续处于偏高水平（2025年中期流动性月均净投放规模为4134亿元）。 王青判断，开年两个月央行显著加大包括MLF在内的中期流动性净投放规模，背后可能有多重原因。 一是为保障重点领域重大项目资金需求，稳定宏观经济运行，2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达，财政继续前置发力。这意味 着尽管2月存在春节长假因素，但仍会有较大规模的政府债券发行。 每经记者｜张寿林 每经编辑｜张益铭 为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2月25 ...

背后或有以下原因：首先，2025年11月以来中美经贸关系回稳，我国整体外部环境改善，是这段时间人民币走强的一个重要背景。 人民币汇率三连涨。 2月26日，亚洲时段，在岸及离岸人民币兑美元双双升破6.84关口，离岸人民币更是升穿6.83，再度刷新2023年4月以来新高。 截至北京时间15点（下同），在岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.832，离岸人民币兑美元汇率盘中最高升值至6.8271。 今日，人民币兑美元中间价报6.9228，调升93个基点，这已经是中间价连续第三日调升。 春节过后，美元指数出现明显下跌，人民币走强，美元兑离岸人民币从6.88826开盘之后，一路下跌，目前已经跌至最低6.8271，三个交易日人民兑美元上涨 超过600个基点。 自2025年12月底升破7.0这一整数关口后，2026年开年人民币汇率延续升值趋势，人民币兑美元一直处于7之下，今年离岸价最高为6.9957。2月以来，人民币 兑美元汇率中间价累计升值超过300个基点，在岸、离岸人民币兑美元汇率今年升值幅度都超过2%。 对于近期人民币汇率的变化，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青表示，节后人民币兑美元较快升值，延续了2025年12月以来的偏强 ...

·花旗：新兴市场有望成为今年最受青睐的交易市场 【机构分析】 ·花旗集团分析师表示，全球前几大资产管理公司（合计管理着超过20万亿美元的资产）正在买入新兴 市场的股票、本币债券和信贷产品，押注全球经济增长和美元走软将有利于这些市场。尽管本周全球市 场因担忧人工智能可能颠覆经济的诸多领域而震荡，但新兴市场资产依然表现良好。MSCI新兴市场指 数周四一度上涨0.7%。相关主题ETF的交易量也大幅飙升。这一转变也反映出发达市场前景更加不明 朗。由于政策不确定性和财政担忧令市场情绪承压，美国、日本和德国国债收益率飙升。 ·澳新银行在最新报告中强化了对黄金的看涨立场。该行指出：1. 美联储预计将于第二季度（可能6月） 重启降息，并于第四季度再次降息，这一路径将为黄金提供支撑。2. 美伊紧张局势再度升级，将重振黄 金的避险需求。3. 经济风险持续存在，市场尚未完全消化美国关税上调的影响；而对AI驱动股市上涨 的担忧，正加剧金融风险。4. 在不确定性背景下，黄金仍是抵御市场风险的极具吸引力的对冲工具。5. 经历最新一轮获利了结后，投资者持仓已不再拥挤，为建立新的多头头寸留下了充足空间。 ·澳新银行：黄金前景依然乐观目前仍有 ...

日本央行审议委员中立场最强硬的高田创再次呼吁提高基准利率，形容该国曾经"冻结"的通胀趋势如今 已热透核心。 高田创周四在京都对当地商界领袖发表演讲时表示，"我认为央行应该进一步换挡，并基于物价稳定目 标几乎实现的前提进行沟通。" 就在高田创发表讲话的前一天，日本首相高市早苗刚刚提名两名通胀主义者在今年晚些时候加入日本央 行委员会，以此暗示她希望维持宽松货币政策的意愿。他的言论凸显了委员会中更激进的政策正常化倡 导者与政府支持刺激的立场之间正在显现的分歧。 这些言论发表在3月18日至19日的政策会议之前，目前市场普遍预计日本央行届时将按兵不动。 在上个月的政策会议上，高田创提议连续加息，这令日本央行观察人士感到意外。这一提议表明他担心 央行在应对通胀和调整政策方面可能落后于形势。他在周四的演讲中继续阐述了这一主题。 "随着多年耐心持续的货币宽松奠定了必要基础，自2020年以来的全球通胀压力可能已经'加热了冷冻食 品的中心'，"高田创用烹饪比喻来形容日本的通胀。"正是从这个角度来看，我现在认为日本经济几乎 实现了物价稳定目标，因此期待着一个'真正的黎明'。" 相比之下，高市早苗周三暗示她希望货币宽松政策继续，她选 ...