Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes the need for a moderately loose monetary policy to support economic stability and growth, while addressing external challenges and ensuring a balanced financial environment [2][3][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Environment - The PBOC's monetary policy remains moderately loose, utilizing various tools to create a favorable financial environment for sustained economic improvement [2]. - The loan market interest rate reform is showing effectiveness, with social financing costs at historically low levels [2]. - The external economic environment is increasingly challenging, with weak global economic momentum and frequent geopolitical and trade conflicts [2]. Group 2: Future Policy Directions - The meeting suggests integrating incremental and stock policies, using multiple tools to strengthen monetary policy regulation based on domestic and international economic conditions [3]. - Maintaining ample liquidity is crucial, aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [3]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission mechanisms and improve the efficiency of fund utilization [3]. Group 3: Financial Sector Support - Large banks are encouraged to play a key role in serving the real economy, while smaller banks should focus on their core responsibilities and strengthen capital [3]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be utilized to support key areas such as domestic demand expansion, technological innovation, and the development of small and micro enterprises [3]. - The PBOC emphasizes the importance of maintaining financial market stability and enhancing financial management capabilities under open conditions [3][4].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term overseas geopolitical situation may continue to suppress the stock index trend, but after a sharp market decline, the possibility of policy support increases, and the further decline space of the stock index is limited [1] - Multiple factors such as allocation demand, loose monetary policy expectations, supply pressure from fiscal efforts, and profit - taking behavior of trading desks lead to the bond market oscillating [1] - Geopolitical factors in the Middle East cause market sentiment to fluctuate, affecting the prices of various commodities, and most commodities show oscillating trends [1] 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - **Stock index**: Short - term geopolitical situation suppresses the trend, but the decline space is limited. Pay attention to long - position layout opportunities after the mitigation of geopolitical disturbances in the Middle East [1] - **Bonds**: Oscillate under the influence of multiple factors [1] Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: Maintain an oscillating trend due to the complex Middle East situation [1] - **Aluminum**: The price rises due to the attack on UAE aluminum industry. Pay attention to low - buying opportunities as Middle East supply disturbances support the price [1] - **Alumina**: The price is supported to rise, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited [1] - **Zinc**: With a weak fundamental outlook, it is considered for short - position allocation. The reversal depends on European natural gas prices [1] - **Nickel**: The price may oscillate at a high level due to Indonesia's policy and cost concerns. Operate with short - term low - buying and control risks [1] - **Stainless steel**: Oscillate. Pay attention to demand acceptance and consider short - term low - buying opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Considered relatively strong in the short term due to potential production impact from diesel supply shortages in major producing countries [1] Precious metals and new energy - **Precious metals**: Concerns about stagflation support price rebounds, but geopolitical risks may cause short - term fluctuations, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1] - **Platinum and palladium**: Geopolitical news drives price rebounds, but geopolitical escalation and a strong dollar may suppress prices. They are expected to oscillate widely before the Middle East situation is clear [1] - **Industrial silicon**: Supply resumes production, demand is weak, and explicit inventory is being depleted [1] - **Polysilicon**: Faces liquidity risks [1] - **Lithium carbonate**: Entering the de - stocking cycle, with limited total inventory pressure and a certain discount in futures prices, but demand is average [1] Ferrous metals - **Rebar**: Oscillate. Price drivers come from cost support and low futures price valuations [1] - **Hot - rolled coil**: Supply and demand are both strong and in the de - stocking cycle, but inventory is high. Consider an oscillating approach and gradually enter a new round of positive arbitrage positions [1] - **Iron ore**: The price may oscillate at a high level. Avoid chasing highs or lows and operate within a range [1] - **Coking coal**: There may be a rapid and sharp upward correction, but beware of risks from the development of the war. Exit long positions in time if the Strait is navigable [1] - **Coke**: The logic is the same as that of coking coal [1] Agricultural products - **Palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil**: High crude oil prices and increased US EPA quotas may push up the far - month price center. Pay attention to relevant policies [1] - **Cotton**: Internationally, the global cotton inventory is expected to tighten. Domestically, the price is expected to rise with demand recovery and reduced planting expectations [1] - **Sugar**: Globally, there is a structural surplus. Domestically, the supply is also abundant, and the price is expected to have limited fluctuations with an internal - strong and external - weak pattern [1] - **Corn**: The price is expected to oscillate and correct in the short term, but the correction range is limited [1] - **Soybean**: The May soybean arrival is sufficient, and there is delivery pressure. Wait for the callback to layout long positions in the far - month contracts [1] - **Paper pulp**: The basic situation is weak, and it is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [1] - **Log**: The price is expected to rise due to the impact of the US - Iran war on the outer - market quotation [1] - **Live pigs**: The spot price is gradually stabilizing, and production capacity needs further release [1] Energy and chemicals - **Fuel oil**: Supply - side production cuts, transportation disruptions, and negotiation news disturbances affect the price [1] - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian imports on the domestic market is small, and it is relatively weakly affected in the energy sector [1] - **Natural rubber**: Supported by raw material costs, with positive market sentiment, normal climate in the producing areas, and a relatively high futures - spot price difference [1] - **BR rubber**: Affected by the US - Iran situation, prices rise, and the inventory may turn to de - stocking [1] - **PTA**: Affected by crude oil fluctuations and PX supply shortages, the Asian polyester industry chain may face production decline risks [1] - **Ethylene glycol**: Affected by the Middle East situation, the price rises due to raw material shortages [1] - **Crude oil**: Geopolitical factors drive the price to strengthen, and Northeast Asian refineries face supply shortages [1] - **Styrene**: Supply shortages of ethylene and benzene lead to profit inversion for non - integrated producers, and the supply - side crisis intensifies [1] - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - inversion and cost [1] - **Methanol**: Iranian imports are affected, but domestic production is high and inventory is at a historical high [1] - **PE and PP**: Geopolitical tensions limit raw material supply, and the fundamentals are weak [1] - **PVC**: Future prospects are optimistic as capacity is expected to be cleared, but ethylene - based production faces raw material shortages [1] - **PG**: The price is relatively strong, but the demand side is short - term bearish, and there is a divergence between the domestic and international markets [1] Others - **Container shipping on the European route**: Affected by the war, the price is generally stable, and shipping companies have a strong willingness to raise prices after the off - season in March [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report indicates that the prices of treasury bond futures generally rose. The central bank's open - market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 26.15 billion yuan, and the MLF was renewed with an increased amount last week. Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, and the capital market remained loose. The market risk appetite increased due to the news of a potential cease - fire in the Middle East. The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in the first two months of this year increased by 15.2% year - on - year, showing a continuous recovery. Looking ahead, there is still room for the central bank to cut the reserve requirement ratio and interest rates. With the gradual easing of the Middle East situation, the prices of treasury bond futures are expected to stabilize [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose. For example, the T2606 contract rose by 0.14%, and the trading volume and open interest of some contracts also changed. The open interest of T2606 increased by 9009 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: The short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate decreased by 1bp, DR007 rate decreased by 1.77bp, and GC007 rate decreased by 1.8bp [2]. - **Chinese Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield decreased by 1.24bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 45.58bp [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of overseas key - term treasury bonds declined. The 10Y US treasury bond yield decreased by 9bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield decreased by 2bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield decreased by 1.2bp [2]. 3.4 Macro News - **Central Bank Operations**: On March 30, the central bank carried out 26.95 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 26.15 billion yuan. In the future, the central bank will flexibly use various monetary policy tools to maintain sufficient liquidity [3]. - **Middle East Situation**: The US President said that Iran had agreed to most of the content of the cease - fire plan, but Iran had different views, and the situation was still uncertain [3]. - **Economic Data**: The profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size in the first two months of this year increased by 15.2% year - on - year, and the industrial enterprise efficiency continued to recover [3]. - **Tax Policy**: The Ministry of Finance plans to formulate and revise laws such as the local surtax law [3]. - **Consumption Policy**: The Ministry of Commerce will introduce measures to optimize the tax - free shopping for outbound tourists and promote the expansion and upgrading of commodity consumption [3]. - **Local Government Debt**: As of March 30, local governments issued about 0.96 trillion yuan of refinancing special bonds for replacing implicit debts, accounting for nearly half of the planned issuance scale this year [3]. - **Interest Rate Changes**: In the money market, most interest rates declined. The yields of US treasury bonds also declined across the board [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - A steepening bond market trend in the past is a reference. In the first half of 2009, there was a notable "short - end down, long - end up" situation in 1y and 10y treasury bonds, similar to March this year. The key is to judge the trend of credit expansion. If credit expansion is weak, the long - end interest rate has a clear ceiling and will reverse after adjustment. For now, the weak bill rate in March indicates that credit投放 momentum is hard to sustain, and the net financing of government bonds has no significant increase. So, the social financing growth rate is likely to decline in the second quarter, presenting a long - end trend opportunity [1]. - After the curve steepens, two key factors are the central bank's support and credit expansion. Without credit expansion, economic stabilization may not be sustainable, and long - end yields are likely to decline, leading to a "compressing spread" (bull steepening) scenario [2][10]. Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1 Curve Steepening: Key Considerations - The situation in March this year is similar to that in the first half of 2009. The central bank's sufficient liquidity injection and continuous support led to short - end yields following the funds and moving lower. Meanwhile, long - end yields oscillated upward as they were influenced by economic recovery and inflation expectations [7][8]. - After the curve steepens, two crucial factors are the central bank's stance and credit expansion. As long as the global political situation is complex and the financial market is volatile, the central bank is likely to maintain stability. Credit expansion is crucial for economic recovery, and it can crowd out bond - allocating funds and affect market expectations. Without credit expansion, long - end rates are more likely to decline, and the bond market still has trend opportunities [2][10][11]. 2 Steepening Market in the First Half of 2009 2.1 Prelude: Policy Shift Caused by the 2008 Subprime Mortgage Crisis and Curve "Bull Steepening" - In July 2008, the Politburo meeting focused on controlling inflation. However, after the subprime mortgage crisis fully erupted in September 2008, economic data deteriorated significantly, and the policy shifted to "stable growth" [13][14]. - The government adopted "broad fiscal + broad monetary" policies. The central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio three times, lowered interest rates four times, and carried out open - market operations. The government also launched a 4 - trillion - yuan stimulus plan, leading to an increase in long - term bond issuance. The yield curve showed a bull - steepening pattern starting from October 2008 [16][17][20]. 2.2 How Did the Bull Steepening Market in 2009 Unfold? 2.2.1 Steepening from January to July 2009: "Stable Low - level Funding Rates + Recovery Expectations" - Short - end: The release of reserve - requirement - cut funds and the high degree of deposit current - account conversion led to low - level funding rates. Although the central bank did not cut the reserve requirement ratio or interest rates in the first half of 2009, it continued to support the market. The 1 - year treasury bond rate oscillated in the range of 0.90% - 1.00% from March to June, after adjustments in January and February [28][29]. - Long - end: The market was caught in a tug - of - war over "recovery expectations." At the beginning of the year, the better - than - expected credit data led to a short - term recovery trade in the bond market. However, due to the ample funds of allocation - oriented investors, long - term bond rates oscillated until the end of May when they started to rise again [32]. 2.2.2 From July to December 2009: The Central Bank Exited "Excessive Easing" + Long - Term Bonds Were Traded Based on Economic Recovery Expectations - Short - end: In July, the central bank restarted the issuance of 1 - year central bank bills, indicating a shift from excessive easing to a tighter monetary policy. The 1 - year short - term bond rate rose from around 0.98% to around 1.49% by the end of the year [39]. - Long - end: Interest rates oscillated upward following economic expectations. The 10 - year treasury bond rate fluctuated due to factors such as economic data, bond supply, and inflation expectations. By the end of December, the 10 - year treasury bond yield was around 3.64% [42][45][46].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping market is expected to be volatile and weak. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities, with a focus on risk control [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the near - month contracts of container shipping to Europe declined, while the far - month contracts rose [1] 3.2 Important Information - The US is in serious consultations with Iran to end military operations in Iran. Trump threatens to "completely destroy all power plants, oil wells, and Kharg Island in Iran" if an agreement cannot be reached in the short term. Iranian officials say they will cut off power to the entire region if power generation facilities are attacked [1] - The National Security and Foreign Policy Committee of the Iranian Parliament has passed a bill to charge vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The plan includes implementing financial arrangements and a charging system in Iranian rials and banning US and Israeli vessels from passing through the Strait of Hormuz [1] - Fed Chairman Powell said that long - term inflation expectations seem to be under control and that monetary policy is in a good position, which eases market concerns about the Fed's interest rate hikes to combat inflation. Traders are reconsidering the possibility of a rate cut this year [1] - US White House Press Secretary Levitt said that Trump hopes to reach an agreement with Iran before the April 6 deadline and intends to call on Arab countries to bear the cost of the US military operations against Iran [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 30, the SCFIS closed at 1752.54 points, up 3.5% from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures price [1] - In January, container exports from Asia to Europe reached 1.88 million TEU, a new monthly record high, with a year - on - year increase of 6%. This is the third consecutive month of growth according to data from the Japan Maritime Center (JMC) citing the UK Container Trade Statistics (CTS) [1] - As of March 30, 2026, the total number of global operating container ships increased to 7,525, with a total global operating capacity of 33,954,476 TEU and a total operating vessel tonnage of 403,096,500 tons. As of the week of March 23, the trans - Atlantic capacity was 167,024 TEU, the trans - Pacific capacity was 532,901 TEU, and the Far East - Europe capacity was 531,179 TEU [1] - On March 27 (Friday), the container shipping index for the Far East - Northern Europe route closed at $2767/FEU, down 0.61% or $17/FEU from the previous value. The Far East - US West Coast route closed at $2329/FEU, up 1.26% or $29/FEU from the previous value [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - It is expected that container shipping will be volatile and weak. It is recommended to conduct short - term operations or wait for opportunities, with a focus on risk control [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of aluminum is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend; the trend strength of alumina is 0, indicating a neutral trend; the trend strength of aluminum alloy is 1, indicating a relatively strong trend [2][3] Core Viewpoints - The supply problem of aluminum continues to ferment, alumina shows a volatile and weak trend, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract is 24,725, with a change of 790 compared to T - 1; the closing price of the LME Aluminum 3M is 3,445, with a change of 161 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract also have corresponding changes [1] - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract is 2,941, with a change of 11 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Alumina main contract have decreased [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract is 23,630, with a change of 670 compared to T - 1. The trading volume and open interest of the aluminum alloy main contract have corresponding changes [1] Spot Market - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The domestic social inventory of aluminum ingots is 1397,000 tons, with an increase of 26,000 tons compared to T - 1. The LME aluminum ingot inventory is 418,700 tons, with a decrease of 2,200 tons compared to T - 1. The electrolytic aluminum enterprise profit and loss is 8,042.75, with an increase of 710.38 compared to T - 1 [1] - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina is 2,782, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1. The alumina enterprise profit and loss in Shanxi has corresponding changes [1] - **Aluminum Bauxite**: The prices of aluminum bauxite imported from Australia, Indonesia, and Guinea have corresponding changes [1] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of Baotai ADC12 is 24,200, with an increase of 400 compared to T - 1. The three - place inventory of aluminum alloy has corresponding changes [1] - **Caustic Soda**: The price of Shaanxi ionic membrane liquid caustic soda (32% converted to 100%) is 2,295, with a change of 0 compared to T - 1 [1]

Key Insights - The report indicates a significant contraction in credit bond issuance, with a total issuance of 685.49 billion, down 672.33 billion from the previous month, and a net financing amount of 71.1 billion, a decrease of 351.53 billion [4][43] - The average issuance rates for various credit bond types mostly declined, with the range between 3 to 21 basis points, except for AAA-rated short-term bonds which saw an increase of 8 basis points [4][45] - The report highlights a mixed performance in credit risk, with the rolling default rate for February at 0.18%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous month, and no new defaulting entities reported [4][20][22] - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with the official manufacturing PMI falling to 49.0, indicating contraction, and new orders index dropping to 45.3, reflecting reduced demand [4][33] - The central bank's monetary policy remains accommodative, with a net liquidity injection of 829.5 billion through various operations, including reverse repos and MLF, contributing to a generally loose funding environment [4][34] - The report suggests that the bond market is expected to continue in a "low interest rate, high volatility, and range-bound" pattern, with limited potential for a one-sided trend due to geopolitical risks and supply pressures [4][9] - The credit risk assessment shows that three entities had their ratings upgraded due to strong support capabilities and improved profitability, while three others were downgraded due to declining profitability and increased financial pressure [4][23]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the foreign exchange market's response to energy shocks, particularly focusing on the implications of rising oil prices on various currencies and the overall market dynamics [1][2]. Core Insights and Arguments - If oil prices rise to $150, demand destruction is expected, leading to a stronger US dollar, with EUR/USD projected to drop to 1.13. The Swedish Krona (SEK) and British Pound (GBP) are anticipated to be the weakest among G10 currencies [1][2]. - The Swiss Franc (CHF) is identified as the preferred safe-haven currency, while the Norwegian Krone (NOK) is expected to perform well due to its oil export status. The Japanese Yen (JPY) is projected to strengthen slightly despite trade condition pressures [1][2]. - Emerging market (EM) currencies are expected to show significant differentiation, with the Polish Zloty (PLN), Hungarian Forint (HUF), Mexican Peso (MXN), and South African Rand (ZAR) facing the most depreciation pressure. Conversely, currencies like the Brazilian Real (BRL), Colombian Peso (COP), and Malaysian Ringgit (MYR) are expected to perform best due to their ties to energy [1][2][3]. - Interest rate differentials are becoming less influential on exchange rates, with risk premiums taking precedence. The European Central Bank's (ECB) hawkish pricing can only partially offset the negative impacts of oil prices and trade conditions [1][5]. Additional Important Insights - The current market pricing indicates a calm situation, with limited net long positions in the US dollar. The best hedging strategy for G10 currencies is to hold short positions in EUR/CHF, while in emerging markets, it is recommended to go long on USD/ZAR and USD/BRL [1][4]. - In scenarios of rising oil prices leading to supply constraints, the weakest currencies are expected to be those in Europe, particularly PLN and HUF, which are highly sensitive to the euro's performance [2][3]. - The overall sentiment among investors is cautious, with many avoiding significant risk due to uncertainties stemming from geopolitical tensions. There is a slight net long position in the US dollar, but it is not substantial. The market is pricing in a belief that tensions will not escalate to a point where oil prices reach $150 [7].

Group 1: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The demand side shows that last week, the molten iron output increased continuously, the steel mill profits rebounded, the production rhythm was good, and the raw material demand was in an upward stage. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 81.03%, a week - on - week increase of 1.25 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 1.08 percentage points. The daily average molten iron output was 2.3109 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,400 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 61,900 tons [1][4]. - On the supply side, last week, both overseas shipments and arrivals increased week - on - week. However, steel mills actively purchased, port desilting was good, and inventory continued to decline. The total global iron ore shipments were 3.1443 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 95,500 tons. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in the country was 17.66683 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 147,350 tons; the daily average desilting volume was 330,310 tons, a decrease of 5,610 tons [1][5]. - Overall, it is expected that the iron ore price will continue the volatile and upward trend [1][6]. Group 3: Transaction Data - SHFE rebar: closing price 3,124 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan, up 0.03%, total trading volume 4,322,964 lots, total open interest 2,309,613 lots [2]. - SHFE hot - rolled coil: closing price 3,299 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan, up 0.06%, total trading volume 1,468,357 lots, total open interest 962,265 lots [2]. - DCE iron ore: closing price 817.0 yuan/ton, up 1.5 yuan, up 0.18%, total trading volume 1,078,183 lots, total open interest 408,026 lots [2]. - DCE coking coal: closing price 1,219.0 yuan/ton, up 48.0 yuan, up 4.10%, total trading volume 7,330,872 lots, total open interest 669,897 lots [2]. - DCE coke: closing price 1,752.0 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan, up 0.66%, total trading volume 148,101 lots, total open interest 46,589 lots [2]. Group 4: Market Review - Last week, the iron ore futures showed a volatile trend. Affected by the overseas geopolitical conflict sentiment, the futures price fluctuated mainly after rising and then falling. In the spot market, the quotation of PB powder at Rizhao Port was 783 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 8 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 668 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 6 yuan/ton. The price difference between high - and low - grade PB powder and Super Special powder was 115 yuan/ton [4]. Group 5: Industry News - On March 25, the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou bonded crushing project and the arrival ceremony of the first ship of iron ore of SimFer were held in Dalian, marking the official opening of a new iron ore logistics channel connecting West Africa's Guinea and Northeast China [7]. - US President Trump said that the US had a "strong" dialogue with Iran and had formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend the strike on its energy facilities for 5 days. He also said that the US was negotiating a broader agreement with Iran, and the US and Iran "might reach an agreement within 5 days or even less". However, Iran has repeatedly denied having a dialogue with the US. The Iranian Foreign Ministry said that Trump's statement was aimed at reducing energy prices and buying time for military operations [7]. - The US government proposed a 15 - condition conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. It is reported that the US is considering promoting a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations on the above terms [7]. - US President Trump said that the strike on Iran's energy facilities would be postponed for another 10 days until 8 p.m. on April 6, 2026, Eastern Time. He also denied being eager to reach an agreement with Iran and said that the US military operations against Iran were continuing, insisting that it was Iran that sought to restart the negotiations [7]. - On March 22, Pan Gongsheng, the governor of the People's Bank of China, said at the China Development Forum 2026 that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, comprehensively using various monetary policy tools such as the deposit - reserve ratio, policy interest rates, and open - market operations to maintain sufficient liquidity [7]. - On March 27, the US and Israel launched air strikes on the Khuzestan Steel Plant and the Mobarakeh Steel Plant in Isfahan, Iran. The power plant supporting the Mobarakeh Steel Plant was also attacked. It is expected that a rigid supply gap of 5 - 5.5 million tons per year will be formed in the short term, with the most prominent gaps in the three categories of plates, billets, and long products [7]. - On March 28, two major aluminum plants in the Middle East were attacked. The factory of Bahrain Aluminum Company was attacked by Iran, and property losses were being evaluated. The United Arab Emirates Global Aluminum Company, one of the world's largest aluminum producers, was also attacked by Iran. It is understood that the aluminum products exported from the Middle East account for about 10% of the global supply, which may have a certain impact on the market [7]. - US Vice - President Vance said that the US had no intention of staying in Iran and would withdraw soon after dealing with current affairs [7]. - The US military's plan for a rapid ground - war victory within a few weeks was exposed. The Pentagon proposed a "sharp - blade beheading" tactic, aiming at the oil - rich Khark Island in Iran without occupying territory or waging a long - term war, trying to replicate the "42 - day defeat of Iraq" myth [7]. Group 6: Related Charts - The report provides 26 charts, including those related to steel mill profitability, iron production, iron ore shipments, arrivals, inventory, and price differentials, with data sources from iFinD, Mysteel, and Tongguan Jinyuan Futures [8][9][11]

证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略周报】 战争油价三岔路：大类资产与行业配置路径图 ——策略周聚焦 引言：美伊冲突进入第五周，战争局势与各类突发事件，让投资者在不确定性 中难以梳理出清晰逻辑主线。直面不确定，我们给出乐观、中性、悲观三种情 景假设，推演不同的冲突走向和油价预期下，经济和通胀影响，以及各主要央 行的政策应对路径，最终落实到大类资产比较，以及行业配置。 乐观情景：风偏与流动性压力缓解下的风险资产修复 乐观情景：谈判达成一致，冲突迅速降温，霍尔木兹海峡 4 月恢复通行。油价 短期见顶回落，中期回到 70-80 美元/桶中枢。 经济&通胀影响：偏向短期冲击，整体影响有限。美国 GDP 增长拖累 0.05- 0.3pct。CPI 同比拉动+0.1-0.3pct，PCE +0.2-0.5pct，核心 PCE +0.03-0.09pct； 中国 GDP 增长拖累 0.1-0.2pct。PPI +0.2-0.9pct，CPI +0.1-0.3pct。（对美国 GDP 拖累的测算来自巴克莱银行，中国 GDP 来自摩根士丹利（中国）首席经济学 家在中国金融四十人论坛的演讲，中美通胀的影响来自华创宏观团队测算，下 同） ...