The US Federal Reserve on Wednesday cut its policy rate by 25 basis points, the third consecutive reduction. The policy rate, which was widely expected to signal a deliberate pivot toward easier policy as officials weigh slower labor market momentum and persistent but moderating inflation. ...

再说做法——美银同时预计，美联储会推出为期1至2周的定期回购操作，用来应付年末流动性的季节性紧张，这类操作可能以SRF利率持平或高出5个基点 来定价，目的非常务实，是在削掉年末的尾部风险，别把它想象成长期方案，这是临时雨伞。 别急着笑，这450亿不是随口说说，它有数学，有逻辑，Cabana把数字拆开说清楚，一点儿也不含糊200亿，是应付负债自然增长的刚需，250亿，是弥补此 前"过度缩表"造成的准备金流失，合计450亿，至少持续六个月，好像并非是临时抱佛脚，而是打算当成常态操作来做。 回购市场给了最直观的证据，SOFR和TGCR这些看着拗口的利率，最近几个月频繁冲破政策利率走廊的上限，隔夜利率像被扎了风筝线，往上窜，这说明 什么，不言自明——银行体系的准备金，从"充裕"走向"充足"，甚至可能进一步走向"稀缺"，而这是美联储难以长期容忍的，因为传导机制会被削弱，利率 信号会变形，政策效果会打折。 有人会说，这不过是技术性调节，有啥大惊小怪，难道要把买国债说成救市吗？错了，技术性背后是制度性转向，买国库券不是把印钞机开回去，而是调整 货币政策工具包的重心，是在用资产负债表来做利率管理的配套工作，是在说"单靠利率， ...

基本面： 考虑到货币政策存在较长的滞后效应，前瞻性指标比回顾性的总体统计数据更为重要，这强化了这样一种观点：限制性政策立场存在风险，可能会不必要地 成为顺周期因素。作为美国经济复苏中最具韧性的支柱，家庭消费也显示出紧张迹象。疫情期间积累的超额储蓄减少过程已基本结束，在借款成本仍然高企 之际，这使消费者更加依赖信贷。美国消费引擎不再加速拖欠率上升和非必要消费更为挑剔表明，消费引擎即使仍在推动整体经济活动，但已不再加速。这 种转变代表着一个转折点：风险平衡已从通胀过热转向政策收紧，可能对需求造成超出政策制定者预期的抑制。通胀动态也发生了显著变化。商品价格仍受 到抑制，服务通胀与趋软的工资压力一致而呈下降趋势，供应链在经历了数年的中断后恢复正常。虽然通胀率仍高于美联储的目标，但新的上行冲击可能性 已经减弱。政策利率最初是为过热的经济设定的，这种环境已经消逝，而维持过度限制性政策立场的代价越来越高。随着通胀风险消退，稳定增长成为一个 更加突出的问题。 周二（12月9日）美元指数于99.10附近震荡。预计即将到来的降息的影响将跨越美国国境，赋予其他央行更大的政策灵活性，并助力全球投资流重获动力。 在会议前预期走强之际， ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the rare occurrence of the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) implementing opposite monetary policies in the same month, with Japan expected to raise interest rates while the U.S. is anticipated to lower them, impacting the exchange rate of the yen against the dollar [2][4]. Group 1: Monetary Policy Changes - The Fed is expected to lower interest rates by 0.25 percentage points, with about 90% of market participants anticipating this outcome [4]. - The BOJ is projected to raise interest rates with a probability of approximately 90% for a rate hike in December [4][7]. - This simultaneous policy divergence is noted as unprecedented since the current Bank of Japan Law was enacted in 1998 [2][4]. Group 2: Exchange Rate Dynamics - Despite expectations for the yen to appreciate due to Japan's rate hike and the U.S. rate cut, the yen has remained stable around 155 yen per dollar since late November, indicating a lack of movement in the exchange rate [2][4]. - The actual long-term interest rate differential between Japan and the U.S. has narrowed from around 4% to approximately 2%, yet the yen has not strengthened as anticipated [7]. Group 3: Economic and Inflation Concerns - There are growing concerns about inflation in Japan, driven by the expansionary fiscal policies of the current administration, which may lead to sustained inflationary pressures [7]. - In the U.S., the government is considering measures such as lowering certain tariffs to mitigate inflation impacts [7]. - The market's perception of future interest rate differentials between the two countries is cautious, with expectations that they may not narrow significantly [7]. Group 4: Market Predictions and Diverging Views - Analysts have differing views on the future of the yen, with some predicting it will weaken to 158 yen per dollar by the end of 2026, while others foresee a strengthening to 140 yen per dollar [8]. - The BOJ's upcoming policy meeting is seen as a potential turning point for the yen, with expectations that any signals of continued rate increases could shift market sentiment [8].

In recent days, particularly since the market took a turn in pricing, we've seen guests be a little less concerned about the labor market than they had been before this data blackout. You are still concerned about the labor market. Explain why.Good morning and thanks for having me. Yes, I think that, you know, what you have seen in the data lull is that some of the second tier data indicators, also some of the private sector indicators have still indicated a tentative signal that the layoff rate is beginnin ...

标题：美联储维持利率不变，预示未来可能降息三次：美国经济展望与影响分析 正文： 当地时间近日，美联储宣布维持利率不变的决定，同时暗示未来可能采取更为宽松的货币政策，预计将 在XXXX年降息三次。这一决策对于全球经济以及金融市场产生重要影响，以下是对此决策的分析与展 望。 四、全球经济影响分析 美联储的决策将对全球经济产生重要影响。一方面，维持利率稳定有助于稳定全球金融市场；另一方 面，未来可能的降息将降低全球融资成本，促进全球经济增长。此外，美联储的决策还将对其他国家和 地区的货币政策产生影响。 五、金融市场反应及建议 美联储的决策引起了金融市场的广泛关注。投资者应关注全球经济形势的变化以及美联储的政策动向， 以便做出合理的投资决策。此外，投资者还应关注通胀和就业市场的动态，以评估未来的经济环境。建 议投资者保持谨慎的投资态度，分散投资风险，关注全球经济形势和政策动向。 一、美联储决策背景 近期，美联储在考虑全球及美国经济形势后，决定维持利率不变。在全球经济形势复杂多变的背景下， 美联储希望通过维持利率稳定来支持经济增长，同时也在密切关注通胀和就业市场的动态。 二、降息预期与原因 尽管美联储维持利率不变，但此 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights significant volatility in the Asia-Pacific market, with the Indian Rupee hitting a record low of 88.49 against the US Dollar, and other currencies such as the Euro, Pound, and Australian Dollar also experiencing declines [1][2] - The bond markets in India, Vietnam, South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan have all seen declines, with Malaysian short-term bond yields surging dramatically [2][3] - The article notes that the Japanese bond market is under pressure, with the 20-year bond yield reaching its highest level since 1999 and the 30-year bond yield hitting a historical high of 3.395% [4] Group 2 - The Bank of Thailand plans to take measures to address the volatility of the Thai Baht and will closely monitor its exchange rate [4] - The Bank of Japan's recent statements indicate a hawkish stance, suggesting potential future interest rate hikes, which could impact inflation and economic growth [4][5] - Analysts express concerns that Japan's position as a major creditor could lead to market disruptions if it sells off assets like US Treasuries to support the Yen [5]

Group 1 - DBS Bank expects improvement in Indonesia's economy in Q4 2025, raising the 2026 growth forecast due to potential easing policies [1] - Barclays no longer predicts a rate cut from the Reserve Bank of India in December, maintaining a neutral stance on interest rates, while suggesting that Indian economic growth may have peaked [2] - Goldman Sachs indicates a high likelihood of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, driven by a weak labor market [4] Group 2 - UOB highlights strong GDP performance in India's second fiscal quarter, reducing the necessity for a rate cut, and raises the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 6.9% to 7.3% [1][2] - CBI criticizes the UK Chancellor's £26 billion tax increase plan, stating it burdens businesses and fails to address high energy costs, leading to a decline in the service sector's business activity index [2] - S&P Global notes that South Korea's manufacturing PMI remains below the growth threshold, reflecting domestic economic weakness and external pressures, although demand from Asian countries partially offsets declines from the US and Japan [2] Group 3 - Danske Bank predicts that Italian government bonds will continue to outperform in the Eurozone market, benefiting from potential credit rating upgrades and inclusion in more benchmark indices [3] - Moody's states that the UK's recent budget aligns with its Aa3 rating, although it warns of execution risks in fiscal consolidation efforts [3] - The European fixed income head at Invesco suggests that France may face multiple sovereign credit rating downgrades due to political instability ahead of the 2027 presidential election [3]

1日，日经225指数高开低走，盘中跌幅超2%，跌超千点。 数据显示，截至发稿，日经225指数报49242.31点，跌2.01%。板块方面，科技股领跌，爱德万测试跌超 4%，索尼跌近4%。 日元汇率上涨，截至发稿日内涨幅为0.38%，达到1美元兑155.49日元的盘中高点，此前几天基本在 155.7—156.7区间内波动。 日本10年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至1.87%，30年期国债收益率短暂触及3.395%，创历史新高。 消息面上，今日（1日），日本央行行长植田和男上午发表讲话。 植田和男明确了"随经济物价改善调整宽松"的方向。他解释，当前日本实际利率（名义政策利率减去通 胀率）显著低于"自然利率"（对经济与物价中性的利率），即便提高政策利率，"宽松的金融条件仍将 维持"——这一调整是"为实现稳定增长而适当松油门，而非对经济踩刹车"。 2026年春季劳资谈判被列为货币政策调整的核心观察点。植田和男指出，当前支撑工资上涨的条件已较 为充分：劳动力市场短缺持续，非制造业"人手不足"扩散指数接近泡沫期水平；2025财年日本最低工资 同比上涨超5%，创历史最高；企业利润整体高位，为加薪提供基础。从各方立场看，日本工会 ...

Wind数据显示，截至发稿， 日经225指数 报49242.31点，跌2.01%。板块方面， 科技股领跌，爱德万测试 跌超4%，索尼跌近4%。 日元汇率上涨，截至发稿日内涨幅为0.38%，达到1美元兑155.49日元的盘中高点，此前几天基本在155.7— 156.7区间内波动。 2026年春季劳资谈判被列为货币政策调整的核心观察点。植田和男指出，当前支撑工资上涨的条件已较为充 分：劳动力市场短缺持续，非制造业"人手不足"扩散指数接近泡沫期水平；2025财年日本最低工资同比上涨 超5%，创历史最高；企业利润整体高位，为加薪提供基础。从各方立场看，日本工会总联合会（Rengo）已 设定2026年工资涨幅目标"5%以上"，日本经济团体联合会（Keidanren）表态将"推动工资上涨进一步锚 定"，企业调查亦显示2026年加薪幅度或不低于2025年，政府也承诺为中小企业加薪营造环境。 日本10年期国债收益率上涨7个基点至1.87%，30年期国债收益率短暂触及3.395%，创历史新高。 日本央行正通过总行与分支机构收集企业加薪意向，计划在12月18—19日举行的货币政策会议（MPM） 上，结合国内外经济数据、金融市场动 ...