美银：贸易协议减少不确定性，日本央行本周或调整政策基调 金十数据7月28日讯，美国银行的经济学家在一份报告中表示，日本央行可能发出信号，表明立场将转 向不太温和的立场。市场普遍预计，在本周的货币政策会议上，日本央行将维持0.5%的政策利率不 变。但考虑到日本最近与美国达成的贸易协议，其可能会采取不那么温和的语气。该协议减少了一个巨 大的不确定性，日本央行曾指出，这是推迟紧缩政策的一个原因。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the strong performance of the US dollar driven by global economic recovery, improved trade relations, and central bank policies, particularly the Federal Reserve's tightening measures [1][3][5]. Group 1: Global Economic Recovery - From 2023 to 2024, the global economy is showing signs of recovery from the pandemic, with improved trade relations between China and the US contributing to increased trade confidence [3][4]. - The US, as the largest economy, directly influences the demand for the dollar through its trade recovery [3][4]. Group 2: Central Bank Policies - Central banks worldwide are tightening monetary policies in response to inflation pressures, which supports the dollar's strength [3][4]. - The Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes enhance the dollar's attractiveness and tighten its supply in the international market, further driving its appreciation [3][4][5]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The interplay between trade optimism and central bank policies reveals deeper market logic, with the dollar serving as a key reserve and transaction currency amid global uncertainties [4][5]. - The dollar's status as a safe-haven currency remains significant, especially in the context of ongoing geopolitical risks and trade tensions [4][5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The dollar's future strength will depend on various factors, including the pace of global economic recovery and the monetary policies of other major economies [5][6][7]. - Potential challenges to the dollar's dominance may arise from shifts in global capital flows and the internationalization of other currencies like the euro and yuan [6][7].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the production industry, attention should be paid to the progress of "anti - involution" governance. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have solicited public opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law of the People's Republic of China, aiming to clarify the standards for identifying improper price behaviors and regulate market price order. Additionally, the automobile replacement subsidy policies in many places have been adjusted [1]. - In the service industry, attention should be paid to the mid - year monetary policy adjustment. On July 25, the central bank conducted a 400 - billion - yuan Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, with a net investment of 100 billion yuan, marking the fifth consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Upstream - In the black sector, the prices of upstream black products have been continuously rising [2]. - In the agricultural sector, egg prices have been on a continuous upward trend [2]. Midstream - In the chemical industry, the operating rates of polyester and PX have remained stable [3]. - In the energy sector, the coal consumption has been increasing recently [3]. Downstream - In the real estate sector, the sales of commercial housing in third - tier cities have slightly rebounded [3]. - In the service sector, the number of summer flight schedules has increased [3]. Industry Credit Spread Tracking - As of July 25, the industry credit spreads of various sectors showed different trends. For example, the credit spread of the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector was 58.97 (previous week: 60.41), and that of the real estate sector was 99.89 (previous week: 101.86) [48]. Key Industry Price Index Tracking - As of July 24, the prices of various products showed different trends. For instance, the spot price of eggs was 6.9 yuan/kg, with a year - on - year increase of 19.24%; the spot price of WTI crude oil was 65.3 US dollars/barrel, with a year - on - year decrease of 1.70% [49].

不过，欧洲央行内部在货币政策方向上仍存在分歧。"鸽派"官员如法国央行行长认为欧元升值压制通 胀，9月该降息25个基点，而"鹰派"官员如德国央行行长则警告2%的利率已经够松，再降息可能吹大资 产泡沫。 对于金融市场而言，欧洲央行此次决议标志着欧元区货币政策进入新阶段。短期内，欧元的上行空间取 决于欧洲央行后续政策声明的"鹰派"程度。若欧央行在9月会议上明确结束降息周期，欧元兑美元有望 挑战1.18关口；反之，若经济数据疲软迫使欧央行推迟政策转向，汇率可能回落至1.16下方。同时，欧 洲央行资产购买计划的缩减仍在继续，将对债券市场产生持续影响。 长期来看，欧洲央行需在经济复苏、通胀管理与地缘政治风险之间寻求平衡。随着全球货币政策周期分 化，欧洲央行的政策调整将进一步影响全球资金流向和资产配置。 （文章来源：新华财经） 新华财经北京7月24日电欧洲央行在法兰克福举行货币政策会议，决定维持三大关键利率不变，其中存 款便利利率维持在2.00%，主要再融资操作利率维持在2.15%，边际贷款便利利率维持在2.40%。这是欧 洲央行自2024年6月以来连续八次降息后首次按下"暂停键"。 此次利率决议符合市场预期，会前利率期货 ...

Core Insights - Gold prices faced rejection at the critical level of $3440, leading to a pullback [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by optimism surrounding US trade agreements and strong earnings from US tech companies [2][3] - The upcoming PMI data from the US and EU is expected to impact market expectations regarding monetary policy adjustments by the Fed and ECB [4][5] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Influences - The dollar is weakening due to positive market sentiment from US trade agreements and strong earnings reports, particularly from Alphabet [2][3] - Investors are optimistic about trade agreements between the US and Japan, Indonesia, and the Philippines, as well as potential agreements with the EU [3] - The market is closely monitoring the ongoing disputes between President Trump and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell [6] Group 2: Technical Analysis of Gold Prices - After being rejected near the $3440 resistance, gold prices are testing the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level at $3377 [10] - For a sustained upward trend, gold needs to break above the $3440 resistance, targeting the June 16 high of $3453 [11] - If sellers maintain pressure, gold could fall below the support level at $3377, with further support around $3340 [12]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell responded to criticisms from the White House regarding the renovation of the Fed's headquarters, denying allegations of extravagance and asserting that the project has been under strict supervision since its approval in 2017 [1][4][5]. Group 1: Renovation Project Details - The renovation project was approved in 2017 and has been subject to strict oversight, with Powell emphasizing the necessity of significant structural repairs and updates due to the age of the buildings, which date back to the 1930s [4][10]. - Powell refuted claims of luxury features in the renovation, stating that there are no plans for a VIP restaurant or special elevators [4][10]. - The budget for the renovation has increased from an initial estimate of $1.9 billion to nearly $2.5 billion [10]. Group 2: Political Context - The Trump administration has repeatedly criticized the renovation, suggesting it is excessively lavish and using it as a potential justification for Powell's removal [5][10]. - Trump expressed that spending $2.5 billion on renovations is shameful and indicated that it could be a reason for Powell's dismissal, although he later stated that it is unlikely to happen unless fraud is proven [10][12]. - The White House's National Economic Council Director stated that Trump has the right to dismiss Powell if there are valid reasons [10]. Group 3: Monetary Policy and Market Reactions - Trump has been dissatisfied with the Fed's interest rate policies, advocating for a reduction in the current rate of approximately 4.3% to below 3% [12][13]. - Powell has maintained a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments, indicating the need to assess the impact of tariffs on inflation and future economic trends [12][13]. - The ongoing tensions between the Trump administration and Powell have raised concerns about the Fed's independence in decision-making [13].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock, currency, and bond markets experienced significant declines due to President Trump's consideration of removing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, although Trump later stated he does not intend to do so [1][5]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Following Trump's initial comments about potentially dismissing Powell, major U.S. stock indices fell, the dollar index dropped, and U.S. Treasury yields rose [5]. - After Trump denied the reports and stated that he does not plan to take action against Powell, U.S. Treasury yields fell, and the major stock indices closed higher, although the dollar index slightly decreased [7]. Group 2: Federal Reserve Independence - Several leaders in the U.S. banking sector publicly emphasized the importance of maintaining the independence of the Federal Reserve for the stability of the U.S. economy and financial system [6]. - Trump's discussions about Powell's potential dismissal included references to past issues, such as the renovation project of the Federal Reserve's headquarters, which has been criticized for alleged excessive spending [8][9]. Group 3: Powell's Position and Future - Powell, who was appointed by Trump in 2017 and reappointed under President Biden, is expected to complete his term, which ends on May 15 of the following year [15]. - Trump has criticized the current interest rate set by the Federal Reserve, suggesting it should be lowered, while Powell has indicated that the Fed will take a cautious approach to monetary policy adjustments [15][16].

Group 1 - Citibank maintains its expectation for a possible interest rate cut in September following the analysis of the Federal Reserve's June FOMC meeting minutes [1] - The FOMC meeting minutes reveal a divergence of opinions among committee members, with some supporting a rate cut as early as July, while others prefer no cuts this year, but a majority believe a cut later in 2023 is appropriate [1] - Current unemployment rate at 4.1% makes a July rate cut "extremely unlikely," with a slightly hawkish tone noted in the minutes regarding inflation risks from tariffs [1] Group 2 - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating, but analysts from JPMorgan believe the impact on financial markets will be limited due to prior adjustments by bond index providers [2] - Despite a challenging fiscal outlook, Citibank's rate strategists indicate that the downgrade is unlikely to significantly affect foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities [2] - Federal Reserve officials are reassessing the monetary policy framework in light of recent inflation performance and potential supply shocks, which may lead to adjustments in employment and inflation target strategies [2]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve's June meeting minutes indicate that some participants view the risks in the labor market as a primary concern, overshadowing inflation risks [1] - There are signs of weakening in actual economic activity and the labor market, leading to concerns about future economic conditions, especially if restrictive policies continue [1] - Participants agree that despite a decrease in uncertainty regarding inflation and economic outlook, caution is necessary when adjusting monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - The Bank of Japan's interest rate hike cycle is only on a "short pause" and will resume after a period of observation, according to board member Hajime Takata [1][2] - Takata maintains a hawkish stance despite threats from U.S. President Donald Trump to increase tariffs on Japanese goods, which casts a shadow over economic prospects [1] - The Japanese inflation rate remains the highest among the G7 countries, with a key cost-of-living indicator reaching a two-year high in May [1] Group 2 - Takata emphasizes that the sustainability of corporate behavior is crucial for further adjustments in monetary policy, as Japan's economy approaches its price stability target [2] - Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda has reiterated that the core inflation rate is still below the 2% target and that he wants to see a clear upward trend in inflation before resuming rate hikes [2] - Over 90% of observers expect the Bank of Japan to maintain the benchmark interest rate at 0.5% in the upcoming policy decision on July 31 [2]