Core Insights - The Westpac-Melbourne Institute Leading Index of Economic Activity for Australia shows a slight recovery in the six-month annualized growth rate, rising from -0.16% in August to 0.04% in September 2025, indicating potential economic growth approaching trend levels by early 2026 [1][2] Economic Activity - The leading index's growth rate has decreased by 0.44 percentage points over the past six months, from 0.48% in March to 0.04% in September, primarily due to declines in residential approvals and softening commodity prices [2] - Recent declines in residential approvals may be temporary, with low interest rates and government measures potentially stimulating the market in the future [2] - Commodity prices, particularly gold, have shown slight increases after significant drops earlier in the year, which may also support economic activity [2] Monetary Policy Outlook - The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to consider interest rate cuts in its upcoming monetary policy meeting on November 3-4, depending largely on the third-quarter inflation data [3] - The leading index indicates a weakening economic growth momentum since the beginning of the year, suggesting that without further interest rate support, growth may fall below trend levels again [3]

Core Viewpoint - The central-bank leader indicated that the Federal Reserve may be nearing the conclusion of a three-year strategy aimed at passively reducing its $6.6 trillion asset holdings [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has been engaged in a campaign to reduce its asset holdings over the past three years [1] - The current asset holdings of the Federal Reserve stand at $6.6 trillion [1]

Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on October 13, opening at $4000.66 per ounce, reaching a high of $4107.37, a low of $3995.30, and closing at $4104.87 [1] - The largest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Trust, increased its holdings by 1.72 tons, bringing the total to 1018.88 tons [5] Monetary Policy Insights - Federal Reserve's Paulson indicated a preference for two more rate cuts this year, each by 25 basis points, suggesting that tariffs' impact on consumer prices should be disregarded in policy formulation [3] - Analysts from Standard Chartered noted that if the U.S. economy remains strong, the likelihood of further rate cuts in 2026 may decrease, potentially leading to higher dollar and U.S. Treasury yields [4] - Morgan Stanley analysts expect weak organic sales growth in the consumer goods sector for Q3, with a possibility of slight improvement by 2026, but overall growth may remain below long-term trends [4] Technical Analysis of Gold - Gold prices have shown a stable upward trend, with a significant rise after testing the $3995 level, stabilizing around $4131 [8][9] - Short-term indicators suggest a strong upward trend, but caution is advised due to potential overbought conditions [9] Trading Strategy - Suggested trading strategies include aggressive buying around $4090 with a stop loss of 3-5 points and a target above $4010, or a more conservative entry at $4060 with similar stop loss and a target above $4080 [10]

Fundamental Analysis - The initial value of the U.S. one-year inflation expectation for October is 4.6%, slightly lower than the forecast and previous value of 4.7%, but still at a relatively high historical level, providing significant support for gold prices [1] - The slight decline in inflation expectations has not fundamentally alleviated market concerns about long-term price pressures, instead reinforcing gold's appeal as an inflation hedge amid overall uncertainty [1] - Increasing domestic economic pressures in the U.S., including a government plan to lay off over 4,000 employees primarily from the Democratic Party, may exacerbate social division and policy uncertainty, driving safe-haven funds towards the gold market [1] - The potential for significant adjustments in monetary policy is indicated by Trump's narrowing of the Federal Reserve chair candidate list to five, alongside the upcoming release of the September CPI report on October 24, which continues to fuel uncertainty regarding inflation and interest rate policies, providing solid potential support for gold prices [1] - Escalating tensions in South Asia, particularly between Pakistan and Afghanistan, and Trump's potential intervention highlight the seriousness of the conflict, while the possibility of providing "Tomahawk" missiles to Ukraine could significantly escalate the situation, further supporting gold prices due to increased safe-haven sentiment [1] Technical Analysis - The current gold price (XAUUSD) shows a strong bullish upward trend, with the moving average system in a bullish arrangement, indicating a potential for further upward movement after short-term corrections [4] - The CCI indicator is in the overbought zone and may suggest a short-term correction opportunity, but the overall market sentiment remains bullish [4] Trading Strategy - For gold, a buy position is recommended around 4015.6, with a stop loss at 4005.0 and a target range of 4090.0-4110.0 [5] - For silver (XAGUSD), the price is on a strong upward trajectory, with a buy position suggested around 50.10, a stop loss at 49.90, and a target range of 51.21-51.50 [9] News Events - Upcoming events include China's September trade balance and the World Bank and IMF's autumn meetings, along with a speech by Federal Reserve's Paulson [9]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the bond market and its relationship with the stock market, particularly in the context of the ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions and their impact on investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2][3][4]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Sentiment and Bond Market Outlook**: The bond market is expected to benefit from a potential decline in risk appetite due to high stock valuations and ongoing trade tensions. A significant inflow of institutional funds, estimated at 2 trillion yuan, is anticipated to return to the bond market [2][3]. - **Impact of U.S.-China Trade War**: The escalation of the trade war, with the U.S. imposing a 100% tariff on Chinese goods, is expected to create uncertainty in the markets, leading to a decrease in risk appetite and providing opportunities for bond investments [1][7]. - **Stock Market Performance**: The stock market, particularly technology stocks, has seen significant gains, which has elevated overall risk tolerance. However, this has also placed pressure on the bond market [3][6]. - **Interest Rate Predictions**: The ten-year government bond yield is projected to decline to 1.5% by 2026, with potential increases if trade tensions escalate further. The central bank may also lower policy rates by 10-20 basis points [5][9]. - **Investor Behavior**: Institutional investors are shifting funds towards short-term deposits and credit products due to stock market volatility. This behavior is expected to change as year-end assessments prompt a reallocation back to long-term credit products [8][11]. Additional Important Insights - **High Valuations and Market Volatility**: Current stock valuations are significantly higher than in previous years, leading to uncertainty regarding potential market corrections and the role of state intervention [6][10]. - **Long-term Debt Instruments**: There is a strong recommendation for investing in long-term government bonds and local government special loans, particularly for insurance companies, as these instruments are expected to provide stable returns [12][13]. - **Economic Growth and Monetary Policy**: The slowing economic growth in China necessitates further monetary policy adjustments, with conditions now favorable for a potential rate cut [14][15]. - **Credit Market Strategies**: Various credit strategies have shown positive returns historically, and there is an emphasis on adapting investment strategies to current market conditions to optimize returns [16][17]. - **Seasonal Trends in Bond Market**: Historically, the fourth quarter has been the strongest for the bond market, although current geopolitical tensions may alter this trend [18][19]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the bond market's dynamics, investor behavior, and the broader economic context influenced by U.S.-China relations.

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's FOMC meeting minutes from September indicate a majority support for a 25 basis point cut in the federal funds rate, with only one dissenting vote advocating for a larger cut of 50 basis points due to softening labor market conditions and core inflation nearing the 2% target [1] - The Fed officials expressed that there is no preset path for future monetary policy, which will be adjusted based on data, economic outlook, and evolving risks, with most officials believing further easing may be appropriate for the remainder of the year [1] - Market expectations suggest a high probability of a rate cut in October, with a 92.5% chance of a 25 basis point reduction, as signs of a weakening labor market and easing inflation pressures emerge [2] Group 2 - The U.S. government has entered a "shutdown" state, affecting the release of key macroeconomic data, which may impact the Fed's policy decisions and increase market uncertainty [2] - The ADP employment report for September showed a decrease of 32,000 jobs, significantly below expectations, while the number of layoffs decreased from 86,000 in August to 54,100 in September, indicating a stable but declining job market [2] - Nearly all respondents in a Desk survey expected a 25 basis point cut in the September meeting, with almost half anticipating another cut in October and a majority expecting at least two cuts by the end of 2025 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current U.S. government shutdown is causing a critical data supply disruption, intensifying the debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the extent of interest rate cuts needed [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve's Internal Debate - There is a division within the Federal Reserve between those wary of inflation resurgence and those concerned about the pressure on the job market, leading to stark contrasts in monetary policy adjustment paths [3] - New Fed Governor Milan consistently advocates for "aggressive rate cuts," emphasizing the need to return interest rates to "neutral levels" as soon as possible [3] - Milan believes that the current neutral interest rate has significantly decreased compared to a year ago, indicating that the monetary policy is more restrictive now than it was a few quarters ago [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators and Policy Implications - Milan warns that while the economy appears stable, the risks of economic weakening are accumulating due to the effects of restrictive policies, necessitating timely interest rate adjustments to prevent potential risks from materializing [3] - During the September 17 Fed meeting, the decision-makers projected two rate cuts in 2025, but Milan opposed a mere 25 basis point cut, arguing for a more substantial reduction [3] - Milan has repeatedly called for larger rate cuts, even suggesting the need for five cuts within this year [3] Group 3: Inflation and Economic Constraints - Fed official Schmidt stated that current interest rates only "slightly restrict" the economy, which he views as "just right," emphasizing that inflation remains the core consideration for monetary policy [4] - Schmidt pointed out that as long as inflation exceeds targets, monetary policy must continue to suppress demand growth to create space for supply recovery and alleviate price pressures [4] - Recent price increases in durable goods and services, such as landscaping and electricity, have exceeded the Fed's 2% inflation target, with service prices rising by 3.5% in recent months [4] Group 4: Data Availability and Decision-Making - Milan expressed concerns that private sector data cannot adequately replace official government data, highlighting the lack of essential data for monetary policy formulation during the government shutdown [4] - Despite the data challenges, Milan remains optimistic that sufficient data will be available to support the Fed's next interest rate decision during the meeting on October 28-29 [4]

堪萨斯城联储主席杰弗里·施密德周一发表鹰派言论，强调美联储必须维护抗通胀公信力，指出当前通 胀水平过高，同时认为货币政策调整已恰到好处。 根据CME美联储观察工具，市场目前押注10月降息概率达92.5%，12月再次降息概率为78%。 周四（10月9日）亚洲时段，美元指数(DXY)止步三日连涨，现交投于98.70附近。美元短期下行压力主 要源于政府停摆及市场对美联储降息预期的反应，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔即将于周四晚些时候发表 的讲话成为市场焦点，若经济数据或鲍威尔讲话偏鹰派，美元走势可能出现技术性反弹。 美国政府停摆已进入第九天，僵局仍无缓解迹象——周四美参议院第六次否决了结束政府停摆的提案。 周三公布的美联储9月会议纪要显示，多数政策制定者支持9月降息，并暗示今年将进一步放宽政策。但 部分成员出于对通胀的担忧主张采取更谨慎策略。 美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰周二提出独特观点，认为通胀本质上是"人口增长"所致，并强调货币政策需要 超前中性利率下行趋势进行调整。 明尼阿波利斯联储主席尼尔·卡什卡利则持相对保留态度，警告判断关税引发的通胀是否具有"粘性"为 时过早，不过其对劳动力市场表现尤为乐观，预计近期疲软的就业创造 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Risk assets and regulatory disturbances were the main reasons for the multiple declines in the bond market in the third quarter, indicating that the core drivers of fundamentals and liquidity remained unchanged, and there was no risk of a cyclical reversal from the underlying framework of the bond market [1][16]. - Most of the negative disturbances in the third quarter were unrelated to the fundamentals and liquidity levels and were fully reflected in the current pricing, so there was no reason to be pessimistic about the fourth quarter. The central bank provided consistent support in terms of liquidity throughout the third quarter. The weakening of fundamental data in August increased the necessity of macro - policy support, which might lead to a shift in the focus of monetary policy towards "stable growth" [5]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market may face pressure at the beginning, but there may be a downward opportunity with the implementation of policy加码. The central government may increase overall policies, and monetary policy may be implemented first by the end of the year. The central level of treasury bond yields in the fourth quarter may decline slightly compared to the end of the third quarter, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond at the end of the third quarter around 1.87% and may fall below 1.8%, and the quarterly oscillation range around 1.78% - 1.95% [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Third Quarter: Exogenous Factors Dominated - **Market Review** - **July**: Policy implementation and rising expectations led to a significant improvement in risk appetite. At the beginning of July, the bond market continued the strong and narrow - range oscillation trend of the second quarter. The implementation of anti - involution policies and the announcement of a trillion - level infrastructure project in Yajiang Motuo Hydropower Station worried the market about the double impact of "rising inflation + significant investment increase" on bonds. The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond rose from 1.66% at the beginning of July to 1.74%, an increase of 8bp [19]. - **August**: The seesaw effect between the bond market and risk assets weakened as the A - share market turned to a structural market [16]. - **September**: Regulatory disturbances and marginal signals emerged. The release of the draft public offering fee opinion at the end of the third quarter had a new impact on the market [16]. - **Core Issues** - The key issues in looking forward to the fourth quarter were whether the above negative factors were fully reflected and whether the bond market logic could return to its own fundamentals [16]. 3.2 Valuation Still Has Room for Repair - **Domestic Loose Expectations Are Stable**: The short - end cost - performance of the 10 - year treasury bond has been repaired, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has declined [23]. - **The Cost - Performance of Stocks and Bonds Has Rebounded**: The cost - performance of stocks and bonds has improved, and the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond has a certain relationship with the dividend rates of the Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 and CSI 300 [37][39]. - **"Deposit Migration" Still Needs Observation**: No specific content was provided in the text. 3.3 Waiting for the Swing Moment of Policy Focus - **Monetary Policy Has Been Stable Since the Third Quarter**: Monetary policy has been stable overall since the third quarter. The central bank carried out a large - scale interest rate transmission system reform and actively maintained market sentiment through open - market operations, indicating that the supportive stance of monetary policy remained unchanged and the upward trend of bond market yields was limited [44]. - **Multi - Dimensional Reforms to Stabilize the Market** - **The Second Joint Meeting of the Central Bank and the Ministry of Finance**: On September 3, the joint working group of the central bank and the Ministry of Finance held the second group leader meeting, discussing issues such as financial market operation, government bond issuance management, central bank treasury bond trading operations, and improving the offshore RMB treasury bond issuance mechanism. This meeting was more focused on financial market operation and helped to stabilize market sentiment [49]. - **Changes in the Monetary Policy Framework: Adjustment of Primary Dealer Evaluation**: On September 12, relevant adjustments were made to the evaluation of primary dealers, which involved multiple aspects such as money market transmission, bond market market - making, and compliance and stable operation [51]. - **The Central Bank Adjusted the Bidding Mode of 14 - day Reverse Repos, Aligning with MLF**: On September 19, the central bank adjusted the bidding mode of 14 - day reverse repos to align with MLF, which had an impact on the market [52]. 3.4 Fundamentals: Pay Attention to the Risk of a Second Decline - In the first half of the year, GDP was significantly repaired with the support of the supply side. After seeing the problem of the decline in industrial enterprise profits, the policy shifted from stabilizing growth to stabilizing prices, which led to a slowdown in production. Since July, the manufacturing PMI reading has declined again, and industrial added value has decreased synchronously. After the data in August was released, the potential risk of a second decline may lead to a swing in the policy focus again [65].

Core Viewpoint - The recent meeting of the People's Bank of China (PBOC) highlighted a series of key policy signals, indicating a flexible adjustment of monetary policy amid low inflation and marginal improvements in macroeconomic indicators [1][3]. Economic Situation - The external economic environment is becoming increasingly complex, with weakening global growth and rising trade barriers. Despite challenges such as insufficient domestic demand and low inflation, China's economy is showing signs of stability and improvement [3][4]. - The core Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.9% year-on-year in August, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline compared to July [3][4]. Monetary Policy Direction - The meeting emphasized the need for a moderately loose monetary policy, focusing on utilizing existing resources effectively rather than introducing new measures. This shift indicates confidence in the effectiveness of previously implemented policies [6][7]. - The PBOC aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, promoting economic stability and maintaining reasonable price levels through better coordination with fiscal policy [6][7]. Future Expectations - There is a possibility of new growth-stabilizing policies in the fourth quarter, including potential interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions to stimulate consumption and investment [7][9]. - Structural monetary policy tools will be prioritized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, green development, and small and micro enterprises [8][9]. Bond Market Insights - The meeting reiterated the importance of monitoring long-term bond yields, with the 10-year government bond yield recently rising to 1.8%. The PBOC is cautious about large-scale government bond purchases, preferring to manage liquidity and utilize existing policy tools [9][10]. - The potential for resuming government bond purchases will depend on market conditions and external economic influences, with a focus on stabilizing market expectations and guiding interest rates downward [10][11].