Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Domestic market optimism is fermenting, and risk assets are continuously strong. Overseas, the outlook for the EU - US trade agreement is worrying, but the overall trade risk has decreased. The US Treasury Secretary will soon talk with China. The US dollar index and US bond yields have declined, and global risk appetite has increased. In China, economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. Policies to boost domestic risk appetite have been introduced. Different asset classes have different trends: stocks are expected to be short - term strong with caution for long positions; bonds are at a high level with cautious observation; commodities show different trends in different sectors [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overall situation**: Overseas trade risks decrease, and the US dollar and bond yields fall. In China, economic growth in H1 is higher than expected, but June consumption and investment slow down. Policies boost domestic risk appetite. Stocks are short - term strong, bonds are high - level volatile, and commodities have different trends [2]. - **Stock index**: Driven by sectors like hydropower, construction machinery, etc., the domestic stock market rises. The short - term macro - upward drive is enhanced, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3]. - **Precious metals**: On Monday, the precious metal market rose. Uncertainty before the August 1st tariff deadline supports precious metals. The short - term gold is in a box - shaped range, and silver has a strong technical rebound logic. The long - term support for gold remains [4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, the steel spot and futures markets rose, and trading volume increased. Policy and project news boost market sentiment. Real demand is weak, but there are differences among varieties. Supply decreases, and the cost support is strong. The steel market is expected to be short - term strong [5][6]. - **Iron ore**: On Monday, the iron ore spot and futures prices rebounded. Steel mills have high profits, and iron water production increased. The short - term price is expected to be strong [6]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: On Monday, the prices rebounded slightly. Demand decreased, and the cost of raw materials changed. The production rhythm is stable, and the price may follow the coal price rebound [7]. - **Soda ash**: On Monday, the price rose significantly. Supply is in an over - supply pattern, demand is weak, and profits decline. The short - term price is supported by policies, but the long - term is suppressed [8]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the price rose. Supply pressure increases in the off - season, and demand is weak. Profits increase, and the price is supported by policies [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The future copper price depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term, the growth - stabilizing plan is favorable to the price [10]. - **Aluminum**: The social inventory is in a cumulative trend, and the fundamentals are weak. The price increase is limited [10]. - **Aluminum alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, production costs rise, and demand is weak. The short - term price is expected to be strong but with limited upside [10]. - **Tin**: Supply is better than expected, and demand is weak. The short - term price is volatile, and the medium - term upside is limited [11]. - **Lithium carbonate**: On Monday, the price rose. Supply increases, inventory accumulates. Affected by policies, it is expected to be strong with attention to macro - disturbances [12]. - **Industrial silicon**: On Monday, the price rose. Production is stable, supply decreases, and the price is driven by manufacturers and policies. It is expected to be strong [13]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the price rose. After policy adjustment, the price increased. It is expected to be strong with attention to market feedback [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: Due to trade negotiation progress and Russian oil exports, the oil price is expected to be weak in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price is strong but lacks upward drive. Demand in the peak season is average, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [15]. - **PX**: It maintains a tight pattern, and the price is supported by the sector. The upward space is limited [16]. - **PTA**: The basis is at a flat level, and demand is low. The price is volatile, and there is a risk of production reduction [16]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Inventory decreases slightly, but demand is low. The short - term price is volatile [16]. - **Short - fiber**: The price follows the polyester sector and is weak. Orders are average, and inventory is high [17]. - **Methanol**: Supply increases, demand decreases, and the price is expected to be weak [17][18]. - **PP**: Supply pressure increases, demand is weak, and the price center is expected to move down [18]. - **LLDPE**: Demand is weak, inventory rises. The short - term price may rebound, but the long - term center will move down [18]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The soybean good - quality rate decreased, and high - temperature risks need attention [19]. - **Soybean/canola meal**: The soybean meal is in a weak - basis and inventory - accumulating pattern. The canola meal consumption is lower than expected. The short - term price is high - level volatile [20]. - **Soybean/canola oil**: Soybean oil inventory pressure is high, and canola oil has no fundamental support. The price is affected by palm oil [21]. - **Palm oil**: Domestic inventory increases, and the short - term price has resistance. The Malaysian palm oil export may improve, which may support the price [22].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that despite ongoing trade tensions and economic weakness, Canada's main stock index outperformed the U.S. benchmark index in the first half of the year, driven by record increases in gold prices [1] - As of June 30, the S&P/TSX Composite Index rose 8.6% year-to-date, surpassing the S&P 500's 5.5% increase during the same period, with a 15% increase in U.S. dollar terms [1] - Investors have flocked to gold and precious metal mining stocks as a hedge against risks from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, contributing to the rise of the Toronto index [1] Group 2 - Four out of the top ten performing stocks in the first half were precious metal stocks, with Agnico Eagle Mines and Wheaton Precious Metals among them, and Lundin Gold leading with a nearly 135% increase [3] - There is uncertainty about whether the gold-led rally will continue in the second half of the year as geopolitical and trade risks have diminished, leading to a decline in gold prices [3] - Despite the challenges, there are other growth opportunities in Canadian stocks, as global investors are injecting funds into the Toronto Stock Exchange due to its high exposure to materials, energy, and financial sectors [3] Group 3 - The new Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney is advocating for a pro-investment and growth-oriented economic agenda, which could positively impact the market [4] - The S&P/TSX Composite Index has a price-to-earnings ratio of 17, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 24, indicating potential valuation opportunities [4] - There is a fundamental story based on government policy changes and a valuation story for Canadian stocks, suggesting a favorable investment environment [4]

Group 1 - Norway's unexpected interest rate cut highlights increasing investor anxiety amid geopolitical tensions, trade risks, and a volatile dollar, complicating global monetary policy and inflation predictions [1] - The Swiss National Bank also reduced borrowing costs to 0%, indicating a bleak global outlook, which surprised some market participants [1] - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with Chairman Powell acknowledging the uncertainty surrounding future rate paths, contributing to market volatility [1] Group 2 - Investors anticipate rising volatility due to geopolitical disruptions affecting the dollar and oil prices, diminishing central banks' ability to provide clear future guidance [2] - European central banks are diverging from the Fed, struggling to navigate a new era where the dollar has become weaker and more unstable under trade war pressures [3] - The dollar has declined nearly 9% against other major currencies this year, with a recent uptick following conflicts between Israel and Iran [3] Group 3 - The unexpected rate cuts from central banks may lead to a new normal characterized by increased market volatility and rapid shifts in asset pricing and narratives [3] - The Swiss franc has appreciated significantly as investors seek non-dollar wealth storage, impacting import costs and pushing the economy towards deflation [4] - The Swiss franc rose against the dollar as traders deemed the Swiss National Bank's rate cut insufficient to combat deflation [5] Group 4 - Global equity market risks are rising, with options products designed to mitigate upcoming volatility appearing relatively cheap [6] - There is a focus on purchasing bonds from countries where inflation and interest rates may significantly decline, while maintaining a negative outlook on long-term U.S. and German bonds due to higher economic uncertainty [6] - Despite concerns, global equity markets remain nearly 20% higher than their lows in April, indicating resilience amid tariff-related worries [6]

Core Viewpoint - A UK ethanol producer warns that tariff-free imports from the US pose a risk to its business, indicating that it is nearly too late to save production [1] Group 1: Company Impact - The operator Ensus states that following a trade agreement with the US in May, its plant in Wilton, UK, is facing an imminent shutdown [1] - The shutdown will result in the loss of over 100 jobs at the plant and affect the supply chain of approximately 3,000 local individuals [1]

Market Overview - The US dollar index experienced a downward trend this week, hitting a three-year low due to lower-than-expected CPI data, which fueled strong expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Spot gold prices rose significantly, supported by a weak dollar, increased rate cut expectations, and geopolitical tensions, reaching $3445 per ounce [1] - Silver prices continued to rise, hovering at the highest levels since 2011, closing at $36.33 per ounce [1] Oil Market - International crude oil prices surged due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with WTI crude oil futures rising over 13% to exceed $77 per barrel, marking a high not seen since February [2] Investment Insights - UBS Global Wealth Management recommends strategic investments in Chinese stocks, citing that trade risks have peaked and more policy support may be forthcoming [5] - Paul Tudor Jones predicts a shift to a "super dovish" stance by the Federal Reserve next year, potentially leading to a 10% depreciation of the US dollar [5] - Daniel Ghali from TD Securities suggests that silver prices could rise further to $40 and challenge historical highs of $50 by year-end [5] - Optimism for the US stock market is growing, with Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs projecting a 10% increase in the S&P 500 index by year-end, reaching a target of 6500 points [5] Major Events - Israel launched a significant military operation against Iran, targeting over 100 sites, which has heightened geopolitical tensions and could impact market stability [6] - The US government has not participated in Israel's military actions but has coordinated with Israel, emphasizing a desire for Iran to return to negotiations [7] Economic Indicators - The US CPI data for May showed a year-on-year increase of 2.4%, below expectations, leading to heightened expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [12] - The US tariff revenue reached $23 billion in May, a 270% increase year-on-year, reflecting the impact of new tariff policies [10][11] Corporate Developments - 17 major automotive companies in China have committed to a payment term of no more than 60 days to suppliers, aiming to foster a collaborative ecosystem in the industry [22] - Pop Mart's stock price has surged nearly 13 times over the past year and a half, driven by popular IPs like LABUBU, with significant auction results boosting investor interest [25]

Group 1: Core Views - The US dollar index has fallen to a seven-week low of 98.35, reflecting market expectations of a shift in US monetary policy and the complex impact of trade policy fluctuations on the dollar's safe-haven status [1][3] - The expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut has become a key driver suppressing the dollar, with a 75% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September [1][3] - Trade uncertainties, particularly President Trump's recent statements about imposing tariffs, have led to a reassessment of global supply chain risks, further pressuring the dollar [3] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent US CPI data has come in below market expectations, contributing to the strengthening of rate cut expectations [1] - The market is closely watching upcoming US Producer Price Index (PPI) and initial jobless claims data, as continued low PPI could indicate deflationary pressures and reinforce the need for Fed easing [3][4] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The dollar index is currently trading below the 100-day EMA, with an RSI of 38.80, indicating prevailing bearish momentum [4] - Key support for the dollar index is at the 98.00 level, with potential targets for further declines at 97.70 and 96.55 if this support is breached [4] - A technical rebound could face initial resistance at 99.38, with further challenges at the 100.00 level and the upper Bollinger Band around 100.60 [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The supply and demand of rebar weakened, with production and demand both showing poor performance. Given the low inventory, the rebar price will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated with a daily decline of 0.06%, trading volume decreased while open interest increased. The supply of hot-rolled coil continued to rise, while demand was weak and stable. With the increase in inventory, the price of hot-rolled coil will be under pressure. Considering the easing of Sino-US trade risks, the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [6]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated downward with a daily decline of 0.71%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. With the weakening of steel mill production in the off-season, the demand for iron ore was weak, while the supply was increasing. Given the deep discount of the futures price, the iron ore price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - In May, the CPI decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, and the core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year. The PPI decreased by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year. Some sectors showed positive price changes [8]. - In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.5%. Exports were 10.67 trillion yuan, an increase of 7.2%, while imports were 7.27 trillion yuan, a decrease of 3.8%. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [9]. - In May 2025, China exported 10.578 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 1.1%, and imported 48,100 tons of steel, a month-on-month decrease of 7.9%. China imported 98.131 million tons of iron ore and concentrates, a month-on-month decrease of 4.9%, and imported 36.04 million tons of coal and lignite, a month-on-month decrease of 4.7% [10]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and other products are presented in a table, including prices in different regions and price changes [11]. 3. Futures Market - The futures prices of the main contracts of rebar, hot-rolled coil, and iron ore are presented in a table, including closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest changes [13]. 4. Related Charts - **Steel Inventory**: Charts show the weekly changes and total inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil [15][16][18]. - **Iron Ore Inventory**: Charts show the inventory of 45 ports, 247 steel mills, and domestic mines, as well as seasonal inventory changes [20][21][25]. - **Steel Mill Production**: Charts show the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability of 247 steel mills, and the operating rate and profitability of independent electric furnaces [29][30][31]. 5. Future Outlook - **Rebar**: The supply and demand of rebar weakened. Production continued to decline, and demand was also poor. With low inventory, the rebar price will continue to oscillate and search for a bottom, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [38]. - **Hot-rolled Coil**: The supply of hot-rolled coil continued to rise, while demand was weak and stable. With the increase in inventory, the price will be under pressure. Considering the easing of Sino-US trade risks, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the demand situation [39]. - **Iron Ore**: The fundamentals of iron ore were weakly stable. Demand was weakening, while supply pressure was increasing. Given the deep discount of the futures price, the price will continue to oscillate at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [40].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that trade risks are mixed, with geopolitical and trade risks continuing to support precious metals in the market [1][2] - As of June 6, COMEX gold futures rose by 0.47% to $3331.0 per ounce, while the gold ETF Huaxia (518850) fell by 0.04% on the day but increased by 1.51% weekly [1] - The U.S. economic data showed a mixed picture, with May ADP employment increasing by only 37,000, and the ISM non-manufacturing index dropping to 49.9, indicating a slowdown in economic momentum [1] Group 2 - The U.S. non-farm payrolls for May added 139,000 jobs, exceeding expectations, and the unemployment rate remained at 4.2%, suggesting economic resilience [1] - The Federal Reserve's outlook on interest rate cuts has been adjusted, with expectations for cuts in 2025 reduced from three to two times, influenced by ongoing inflation concerns due to tariffs [1] - The trade tensions escalated with Trump's announcement of a 50% increase in steel and aluminum tariffs, prompting fears of global trade friction, although there were signs of negotiation progress between the U.S. and other countries [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall trend of domestic soybean futures prices follows the external market, and the upward trend has ended. The soybean futures price in the US will still be affected by weather themes and trade risks, maintaining a pattern of being prone to rise and hard to fall. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The supply and demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally, and the demand outlook has become more optimistic. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has become a strong variety [6][8] Summary by Variety Soybean Meal (M) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [6][7] - **Core Logic**: As the weather theme in North and South America weakens, the rebound of US soybean futures prices has slowed down. The current market's main trading logic follows the weather theme, and the linkage between domestic and foreign markets has increased. The short - term trend is mainly volatile. The factors affecting it include import arrival rhythm, customs clearance inspection, oil refinery operation rhythm, and备货 demand [6][7] Palm Oil (P) - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating strongly; Reference view: oscillating strongly [7][8] - **Core Logic**: The supply - demand pattern of palm oil in Southeast Asia has improved marginally. The increase in Indian demand has made the market optimistic about the demand outlook for palm oil. The prices of domestic and foreign palm oil futures have rebounded jointly. The strength relationship among the three major oil varieties in the oil sector has changed, and palm oil has replaced rapeseed oil as a strong variety. The factors affecting it include Malaysian palm production and exports, Indonesian exports, tariff policies of major producing countries, domestic arrival and inventory, and substitution demand [7][8] Soybean Oil - **Time - frame Views**: Short - term: oscillating; Medium - term: oscillating; Intraday: oscillating weakly; Reference view: oscillating weakly [7] - **Core Logic**: The factors affecting it include US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic raw material supply rhythm, and oil refinery inventory [7]

中信建投期货研报观点认为，地缘政治风险担忧持续，俄乌谈判无实质进展，中东地区局势仍然紧张。 美国与日本、印度谈判正在推进，但美国强硬态度使得谈判进展缓慢。此外，特朗普减税法案在众议院 通过并等待参议院结果，市场对美国债务问题担忧加剧，削弱美元信用价值。总体来看，特朗普减税法 案继续削弱美元信用价值，地缘政治风险与贸易风险亦持续，贵金属后市仍易涨难跌。 中信建投期货：贵金属仍是易涨难跌 国投期货：黄金长期看涨，短期维持回调买入思路 申银万国期货：黄金震荡整理长期驱动支撑反弹 Asset Strategies International：美国减税法案料扩大赤字，这将推动金价走高 Forexlive.com网站：对贸易不确定性对冲促使投资者坚定买入黄金 机构观点分析如下： 新华财经北京5月26日电（吴郑思） 周一（5月26日）早盘，随着特朗普说"将推迟对欧盟商品征收50% 关税"，国际金价盘中一度下挫约15美元，低点至3335美元／盎司一线，但随后金价便震荡回升，重新 回到3350美元／盎司附近，整体依然保持偏强态势。以下是部分机构观点： 国投期货观点认为，近期贸易战以及地缘冲突各方均处于谈判阶段，特朗普威胁6月1 ...