Core Viewpoint - Swedbank has significantly revised its forecast for the Swedish central bank's benchmark interest rate, now predicting a cumulative cut of 50 basis points to 1.75% by the end of Q3 this year, a major shift from the previous expectation of a single cut of 25 basis points to 2.25% in August [1] Group 1: Economic Conditions - The largest economy in the Nordic region is facing three pressures: external uncertainty due to U.S. trade policies, concerns over stagnation in domestic economic recovery, and persistent core inflation that constrains monetary policy [1] - Despite signs of overall inflation easing, the core CPI, excluding energy and food, remains sticky, contrasting with a potential GDP growth rate that may fall below 1.5% [1] Group 2: Trade Impact - The report emphasizes that the chain reaction from U.S. tariffs cannot be overlooked, as trade friction will impact the Swedish economy through reduced export orders, slowed business investment, and weakened consumer confidence [2] - Consequently, Swedbank has lowered its economic growth forecast for 2025 from 2.7% to 2.5%, while maintaining the growth estimate of 1.5% for this year [2] Group 3: Monetary Policy Outlook - For neighboring Norway, Swedbank maintains the baseline forecast for the European Central Bank to initiate rate cuts in September, with an added expectation of a second cut in December, predicting four consecutive cuts to 3% by 2026 [2] - Analysts note that the policy shift by the Swedish central bank reflects the unique challenges faced by Nordic economies, which must guard against imported inflation risks while addressing the impacts of protectionism on export-driven economies [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in gold prices due to rising geopolitical tensions and trade disputes, leading to heightened investor demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1][2][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Surge - On April 9, gold prices surged, with spot gold rising over 2% and reaching a peak of $3052 per ounce, while COMEX gold futures increased by 2.62% to $3068.5 per ounce [4][1]. - Year-to-date, both spot gold and COMEX gold futures have seen an increase of over 16%, outperforming major global stock indices [4][1]. - The rise in gold prices reflects investor anxiety over tariff threats and potential changes in global trade rules [4][1]. Group 2: Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trade tensions are contributing to an increasingly uncertain global economic outlook, with rising raw material costs expected to drive inflation in the U.S. [2][5]. - The implementation of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. government is projected to increase the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index by 1.7% in the short term, with potential further increases if other countries retaliate [5][6]. - The uncertainty surrounding global tariff policies is expected to bolster demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [5][6]. Group 3: Gold ETF Inflows - In the first quarter of the year, gold-backed ETFs saw a net inflow of 226.5 tons, valued at $21.1 billion, marking the largest quarterly inflow in three years [7][1]. - The total holdings in gold ETFs increased by 3% to 3445.3 tons by the end of March, the highest level since May 2023 [7][1]. - The majority of the inflows came from the U.S. and Europe, with U.S.-listed gold ETFs leading with an inflow of 133.8 tons [7][1]. Group 4: Long-term Outlook for Gold - Analysts believe that the long-term logic for rising gold prices remains intact, driven by increased inflation and economic uncertainty due to tariffs [5][6]. - The potential for stagflation in the U.S. economy, coupled with high inflation and slowing growth, is expected to strengthen the case for gold as an investment [6][5]. - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and central bank demand for gold are anticipated to support a bullish outlook for gold prices [6][8].