1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel industry is currently in a state of weak supply - demand balance, with potential for production reduction in the future. The coal - coke market has experienced marginal weakening in supply - demand, and coal prices may face downward pressure in November but with limited decline. The iron ore market has a weak fundamental situation, and inventory is expected to continue to accumulate [6][39][94]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel - **Supply**: This week, the molten iron output stopped falling and rose slightly to 236.88wt (+2.66). The daily consumption of scrap steel remained stable, slightly lower than the same period last year. In the future, the overall production level tends to be reduced, and the molten iron output may gradually decline in the fourth quarter, with a possible slow slope. Some steel mills have production reduction plans in December [6]. - **Demand**: Seasonal steel demand is gradually slowing down on a weekly basis, and the steel demand data has started to weaken. This year's demand shows characteristics of rigid demand support, occasional speculative demand impulses, overall light demand, and rigid external demand. There is buying support when prices fall, but there is no driving force for price increases [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products is being depleted, but the absolute inventory level is higher than the seasonal average. The overall supply - demand of the five major steel products is weak on a weekly basis. The inventory depletion is slow, which puts pressure on production reduction [6]. - **Basis/Spread**: This week, the basis of both hot - rolled and rebar decreased. As of Friday, the basis of rb2601 in the East China region (Hangzhou) was 97, a weekly decrease of 9; the basis of hc2601 in the East China region (Shanghai) was 4, a weekly decrease of 11 [6]. - **Profit**: The immediate profit of the long - process is meager, and most electric furnaces are in the red. The profitability rate of steel mills has fallen below 39%, and the weekly decline has slowed down [6]. - **Valuation**: The basis of hot - rolled coils is slightly better than that of rebar. The production profit of steel mills is meager, and the industrial relative valuation is still not high [6]. - **Macro and Risk Appetite**: The next macro - observation period is after early December. In the short term, the macro - expectation may be in a vacuum [6]. - **Investment View**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. Observe and track industrial contradictions. In the future, the decline in steel production is the main industrial logic. Wait for the implementation of the production reduction logic [6]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Wait and see. Arbitrage: None for now. Spot - futures: Pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunity of hot - rolled coil spot - futures [6]. 3.2 Coking Coal and Coke - **Demand**: Steel demand continues to decline seasonally. This week, the apparent demand of five major steel products was 860.60 (-6.33), and the output was 834.38 (-22.36). The molten iron output has rebounded temporarily, but the profitability rate of steel mills is still falling, and it is expected that the molten iron output will continue to decline [39]. - **Coking Coal Supply**: Domestic coal mine production has recovered, and there is still an expectation of production increase in the short term. Mongolian coal customs clearance remains at a high level, and the quotation of trading enterprises has been lowered. The quotation of overseas coal has回调 [39]. - **Coke Supply**: Coke supply has decreased. This week, the daily average coke output was 109.2 (-0.5), and the coking profit was - 34 (-12). After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented on Friday, the coking profit has been repaired [39]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coal mines continues to decline, but the decline has narrowed. The coke inventory is relatively healthy, and the whole - link inventory is being depleted [39]. - **Basis/Spread**: After the fourth round of price increase of coke was implemented, the warehouse - receipt cost was over 1750, and the port trade quotation has fallen in advance. The near - month contracts are at a certain discount [39]. - **Profit**: The profitability rate of steel mills is 38.96% (-0.87%), and the coking profit is - 34 (-12) [39]. - **Summary**: This week, there have been more macro - disturbances, and the black - metal sector has fluctuated downward. The supply - demand of coking coal and coke has weakened marginally. Coal prices may face downward pressure in November, but the decline is limited. If the supply remains low, the market may start the next round of replenishment around mid - December [39]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Focus on short - term trading, and wait and see for the medium - to - long - term. Arbitrage: Consider partially closing the previously recommended hedging short positions [39]. 3.3 Iron Ore - **Supply**: The current shipping data has rebounded by 51.6 tons per day to 465 tons per day, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume in China has declined. The arrival volume has reached its peak and started to decline [94]. - **Demand**: The molten iron output of steel mills has rebounded to 236.88 tons (+2.66), but the profitability rate of steel mills has continued to decline. The apparent demand of steel products has continued to decline. The inventory pressure is not large in the short term, but the apparent demand will remain at a low level under the influence of seasonal factors [94]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory of 47 ports has increased by 188.71 tons this period. In the future, with stable supply and weakening demand, the inventory will continue to accumulate slightly [94]. - **Profit**: The profit of steel mills has continued to decline, which has begun to affect the molten iron output [94]. - **Valuation**: The short - term valuation is neutral [94]. - **Summary**: Fundamentally, the short - term arrival of iron ore has weakened slightly, but the subsequent shipping has little impact. The inventory will continue to accumulate. The rebound of molten iron output is mainly due to the resumption of production of previously shut - down steel mills. The inventory pressure limits the upward space of prices [94]. - **Investment View**: Neutral [94]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Hold short positions. Arbitrage: Wait and see for now [94].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the steel market, due to the decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak season, steel mills are expected to reduce production, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. Coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness, and iron ore prices have fallen from their highs. Both rebar and hot-rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10-day moving average, and attention should be paid to whether they can stabilize in the future [2]. - For iron ore, the commissioning of the Simandou Iron Mine is expected to impact overall supply. Steel mills will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. The global iron ore shipment volume has declined from its high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, putting pressure on futures prices. The futures price of the 01 contract has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, rebar's apparent demand decreased, production declined, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled coil inventory has far exceeded the same - period level after a significant increase, and the total inventory continued to rise this week [2]. - **Cost**: Coking coal and coke spot prices are running strongly, providing some support for costs. However, due to the significant decline in steel mill profits, coal and coke prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices have broken below the support of the 10 - day moving average on the daily K - line chart, and currently, there is support from the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase up or sell down. Wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips for medium - term trading. Do not short when the price is at a low level [2]. 3.2 Iron Ore - **Supply and Demand**: The Simandou Iron Mine has been commissioned, affecting overall supply. Steel mills' iron - making output has declined, and they will continue to cut production, suppressing raw material prices. Global shipments have declined from their high, and port inventories have increased during the consumption peak season, suppressing futures prices [4]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract futures price has broken below the support of the middle - band of the Bollinger Bands and the 10 - day moving average, and currently, there is resistance from the dense trading area above. Attention should be paid to the support of the lower - band of the Bollinger Bands [4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and wait patiently for the price to stabilize and then go long on dips [4]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week ending November 12, national building materials production was 4362600 tons, a decrease of 168900 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 9545400 tons, a decrease of 196700 tons from the previous week. National hot - rolled coil production was 4114900 tons, an increase of 14600 tons from the previous week; total inventory was 4602300 tons, a decrease of 43900 tons from the previous week [6]. - On November 12, the auction prices of coking coal in the Linfen market showed mixed trends. Among the 7 reported transaction results, with a total listing of 186000 tons and a non - sale of 27000 tons, the non - sale rate was 14.5%. Two suppliers' prices increased, two decreased, and the rest remained the same [6]. - The Handan Ecological Environment Bureau announced that the Handan Heavy Pollution Weather Emergency Command decided to launch a Level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather at 18:00 on November 12, 2025, and it is expected to be lifted around November 16 [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel market shows a pattern of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices weakly oscillating. In the short - term, the market will run in an oscillating manner due to factors such as reduced steel mill profitability, lower iron - water production, and seasonal demand changes [1][5][6] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1成材 (Finished Products) - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major steel mills nationwide was 2.0854 million tons (-40,500 tons), and that of hot - rolled coils was 3.1816 million tons (-54,000 tons) [5] - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils decreased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1852 million tons (-136,700 tons), and for hot - rolled coils, it was 3.143 million tons (-175,900 tons) [5] - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.9254 million tons (-99,800 tons), with social inventory at 4.257 million tons (-51,100 tons) and steel mill inventory at 1.6684 million tons (-48,700 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1045 million tons (+38,600 tons), social inventory was 3.3302 million tons (+40,900 tons), and steel mill inventory was 774,300 tons (-2,300 tons) [5] - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 156 yuan/ton (+32 yuan/ton), and that of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 15 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [5] - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. Iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.13%, a 1.38% week - on - week increase; the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.81%, a 0.8% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.03%, a 1.8% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 50.87%, a 2.12% week - on - week decrease [5] 3.2 Raw Materials - **Cost Support**: The prices of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke and main coking coal from Lvliang increased, while the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port decreased. The price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,570 yuan/ton (+10 yuan/ton), main coking coal from Lvliang was 1,645 yuan/ton (+70 yuan/ton), and 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 773 yuan/ton (-30 yuan/ton) [19] 3.3 Production - related Indicators - **Iron - water Production and Furnace Operating Rates**: As of November 7, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 1.38% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.8% week - on - week, and iron - water production was 2.3422 million tons, a 21,400 - ton week - on - week decrease. The profitability rate of steel mills was 39.83%, a 5.19% week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 91.87%, a 23.54% week - on - week increase [24][28][33] - **Steel Output**: Rebar output decreased by 40,500 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process output decreased by 37,900 tons week - on - week, and short - process output decreased by 2,600 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 54,000 tons week - on - week but remained at a high level [38] 3.4 Demand - related Indicators - **Apparent Demand**: Rebar consumption decreased by 136,700 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand decreased by 175,900 tons week - on - week [44] - **Construction Steel and Hot - rolled Coil Volumes**: As of November 7, the weekly average volume of building materials was 96,400 tons, remaining at a low level. The weekly average volume of hot - rolled coils was 28,800 tons. The output of cold - rolled coils was 838,400 tons, a 21,300 - ton week - on - week decrease, and the output continued to decline [48][53] 3.5 Inventory - related Indicators - **General Steel Inventory**: As of November 7, the inventory of Tangshan billets was 545,500 tons, a 9,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The total inventory of major steel products was 10.7474 million tons, a 25,800 - ton week - on - week decrease [56] - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 99,800 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 51,100 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 48,700 tons week - on - week [60] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 38,600 tons week - on - week, social inventory increased by 40,900 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 2,300 tons week - on - week [65] 3.6 Export and Downstream Industry Data - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, the cumulative steel export volume was 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% cumulative year - on - year increase [68] - **Automobile Industry**: In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. New - energy automobile production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new - energy automobile sales increased by 209,000 tons month - on - month [72] - **Real Estate Industry**: From January to September, national real estate development investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, with a 1% decrease in the decline rate. Specifically, from January to September, the new construction area of houses was 453.99 million square meters, a 18.9% decrease; the completed area of houses was 311.29 million square meters, a 15.3% year - on - year decrease with a narrowing decline. The sales area of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, with a 0.8% decline; the sales amount of newly - built commercial housing decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, with a 0.6% decline. The funds in place for development enterprises from January to September totaled 7.2 trillion yuan, a 8.4% year - on - year decrease [74][75]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The A - share market is in a repricing adjustment after the quarterly reports, with common short - term rebounds and limited downside risks [2]. - The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals as credit data is expected to weaken in October, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market [2]. - International gold prices will mainly show a volatile consolidation trend, with silver following gold's fluctuations [2]. - The shipping index (European line) will be volatile in the short term [2]. - The supply of iron elements in the steel market is loose, and there are various trading strategies for different steel - related products [2]. - The prices of some chemical products are affected by supply - demand and cost factors, with limited rebound space or downward pressure [2]. - Agricultural product prices are influenced by factors such as trade negotiations, supply, and production, showing different trends [2]. - Special and new energy products have their own price trends and trading logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: After the market冲高兑现预期, there is a slight callback, and the technology sector recovers. A - shares are in repricing adjustment, with short - term rebounds and limited downside risks. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bond market pricing may tilt towards fundamentals, and the strong equity market suppresses the bond market. It is recommended to go long on a single - side strategy and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy due to the rising IRR [2]. - **Precious Metals Futures**: International gold prices will oscillate between 3900 - 4030 dollars, and silver will fluctuate between 47 - 49 dollars [2]. - **Shipping Index Futures (European Line)**: It will be volatile in the short term, and it is recommended to buy on dips for the December contract [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The supply of iron elements in the January contract is loose. It is recommended to hold a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on hot - rolled coils, and to go short on the iron ore contract at high prices [2]. - **Iron Ore**: After the shipping volume declines and the arrival volume increases, the port inventory rises, and the iron ore price drops after rising. It is recommended to go short at high prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in the producing area is strong, and the Mongolian coal price is firm. It is recommended to go long on coking coal at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The third - round price increase of mainstream coking enterprises has been implemented, and coking coal provides cost support. It is recommended to go long on coke at low prices and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper price center has回调, and the downstream demand has briefly recovered. Pay attention to the support at 84000 and the pressure at 86500 [2]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price has increased in both volume and price, but the short - term fundamentals restrict the upward height. The main operation range is 20800 - 21600 [2]. - **Other Non - ferrous Metals**: Each metal has its own price range and trading suggestions, such as zinc oscillating at a high level between 22300 - 23000, tin maintaining a high - level oscillation, etc. [2]. Chemical Products - **PX, PTA, Short - fiber, Bottle - chip**: The supply - demand expectations are weak, and the cost - end support is limited, with limited rebound space [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply is abundant, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. It is recommended to hold out - of - the - money call options and consider a reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Each chemical product has its own supply - demand situation and trading suggestions, such as PVC being recommended to go short on rebounds [2]. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: The prices of some grains and oils are affected by factors such as trade negotiations and production. For example, the price of palm oil is weak, and it is recommended to close the long positions of some contracts [2]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The pig price is oscillating, and it is recommended to hold a 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage strategy [2]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Each product has its own price trend and trading suggestions, such as sugar being recommended to trade short on rebounds [2]. Special and New Energy Products - **Glass**: There is support at the bottom due to the peak construction season and production line disturbances. It is recommended to pay attention to the spot market for short - term long - trading opportunities [2]. - **Rubber**: The negative factors have been gradually digested, and the rubber price has rebounded. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: They are mainly oscillating, with specific price ranges [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The trading logic has changed recently, and it is in a weak adjustment [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Steel: No specific overall industry investment rating is provided, but the strategy for steel is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Iron Ore: The strategy is "oscillating weakly" [4] - Coking Coal and Coke: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate" [6] - Thermal Coal: No specific investment strategy is provided [7] 2. Core Views - Steel market has low - price and high - volume trading, with steel prices rebounding slightly. However, due to weak real estate, potential weakening of domestic demand in infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter, and the need to exchange external demand with low prices, further production cuts are needed for inventory reduction [1] - Iron ore prices are under downward pressure due to falling steel mill profitability, reduced iron - water production, and a significant increase in iron ore arrivals [3] - Driven by the sharp rise in thermal coal prices, coking coal and coke prices are oscillating and rebounding. The supply of coking coal and coke is tight, and the demand shows certain resilience [5][6] - Thermal coal prices continue to rise. The downstream non - power demand is strong, and prices are expected to be firm in the short term due to winter storage expectations and difficulty in inventory accumulation [7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: The closing price of the rebar futures main contract is 3037 yuan/ton, and that of the hot - rolled coil futures main contract is 3256 yuan/ton. The overall spot trading volume of steel is average, with the national building materials trading volume at 11.03 tons, showing an increase compared to the previous day and a good week - on - week performance [1] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The weekly output of the five major steel products is 856.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 18.55 tons. All product outputs have declined. The real estate remains weak, and there is pressure on the domestic demand of infrastructure and consumer - related manufacturing in the fourth quarter. The inventory reduction of the five major steel products has slowed down [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Iron ore futures prices are oscillating. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties have risen slightly. The trading volume of national main - port iron ore is 115.4 tons, a 6.07% increase compared to the previous day, and the trading volume of forward - looking spot is 158.9 tons, a 6.00% increase. The daily average iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 234.22 tons, a decrease of 2.14 tons compared to the previous period, and the steel mill profitability rate is 39.83%, a 5.19% decrease [3] - **Supply and Demand Logic**: The apparent demand for steel has dropped significantly this week, and the steel mill profitability rate has further decreased. The iron ore arrival volume has increased significantly, and the iron - water output has decreased, resulting in reduced demand [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is "oscillating weakly", and there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Affected by the rise in thermal coal prices and market sentiment, the coking coal and coke futures prices are oscillating and rebounding. The import volume of Mongolian coking coal has recovered, and the trading volume is average [5][6] - **Logic and Views**: For coking coal, the domestic supply recovery is slow, and imported coal is abundant, with a slightly loose overall situation but a lower inventory accumulation rate than last year. The demand is supported by the successful third - round price increase of coke. For coke, the supply is tight due to profit losses, and the demand shows certain resilience after the third - round price increase [6] - **Strategy**: Coking coal is expected to "oscillate", and coke is also expected to "oscillate". There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, coal prices are rising, and the non - power demand is strong. At the ports, the trading volume of market coal is low, but traders are reluctant to sell due to rising coal mine prices and low port inventories. The price of imported coal is also rising [7] - **Demand and Logic**: In the short term, prices are oscillating and rising due to tight supply in production areas. In the long - term, the supply pattern is loose, but with the approaching of the winter heating season and strong non - power demand, attention should be paid to overall consumption and inventory replenishment [7] - **Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided [7]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00%, the second rate cut this year, and will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1st. The US will cancel the 10% so - called "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods, continue to suspend the 24% reciprocal tariff for one year, and pause the implementation of the 50% penetration rule of export control and the 301 investigation measures against China's maritime, logistics, and shipbuilding industries for one year. China will adjust or suspend relevant counter - measures accordingly [1][4][6]. - Last week, the production and apparent demand of steel increased, and inventory decreased. However, as the weather turns cold, steel demand will gradually weaken, and the pattern of weak supply and demand in the steel industry remains unchanged. Overall, with the macro - level positive factors realized, the market will focus on the fundamentals, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3106 | 6 | 0.19 | 7602371 | 2647901 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3308 | 9 | 0.27 | 2719646 | 1473286 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 800.0 | 13.5 | 1.72 | 1679472 | 551548 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1286.0 | 22.5 | 1.78 | 6258826 | 970861 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1777.0 | - 2.5 | - 0.14 | 111286 | 50050 | Yuan/ton | [2] Market Review - Last week, steel futures rose first and then fell. The macro - level factors drove the black - series commodities to be generally strong, but after the macro - level uncertainties were resolved on Thursday, the futures prices declined. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 2980 (+50) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3230 (+30) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3330 (+40) yuan/ton [4]. Industry News - Ni Hong, Minister of Housing and Urban - Rural Development, proposed to reform and improve the real - estate development, financing, and sales systems, promote the spot - house sales system, and standardize the supervision of pre - sale funds [6]. - The "Proposal for Formulating the 15th Five - Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" was released, aiming to optimize and upgrade traditional industries, enhance the status and competitiveness of key industries in the global industrial division of labor, and improve the self - controllability of the industrial chain [6]. - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points and will end the balance sheet reduction starting December 1st [6]. - The Fourth Plenary Session of the 20th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China put forward the main goals for economic and social development during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period and the long - term goal of reaching the level of medium - developed countries in per - capita GDP by 2035 [6]. - The US and China reached an agreement on tariffs, with the US canceling some tariffs and pausing relevant investigation measures, and China adjusting or suspending relevant counter - measures [6]. Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures and their spreads, basis trends, regional price differences, steel mill profits, steel production, inventory, and apparent consumption [9][10][11]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - In October, steel prices first declined and then rose. High hot metal production on the supply - side and weak real - estate and infrastructure data on the demand - side suppressed market expectations. Industrial policies provided short - term upward momentum, and the main rebound power came from the raw material side, especially the continuous disturbances in the coking coal supply. - From the perspective of steel supply and demand, hot metal production has dropped to the level of the same period last year. Due to high previous steel mill production, few overhauls, and low current profits, there is still room for further decline in hot metal production after November. Construction steel demand is lackluster, with no signs of recovery in housing construction and infrastructure. Coil demand is expected to remain at a relatively high level supported by exports, and overall demand is moderately weak. - In November, with the lack of strong trading drivers, steel is unlikely to have large - scale unilateral trends and will remain range - bound. Taking the rebar 2601 contract as a reference, the expected range is [3000, 3200]. The reduction in hot metal is expected to ease the inventory pressure of coils. Coking coal on the raw material side faces potential supply - side disturbances, which may provide continuous support, but low steel mill profits and reduced hot metal production will limit the upside of raw materials [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In October, the steel market first declined and then rose, with a limited fluctuation range. After the National Day, steel demand recovered slowly, and overall steel inventory was high, causing the futures price to decline. During this period, the basis strengthened, and the spot price showed resilience. The futures price stabilized around 3020 and gradually rebounded, supported by supply disturbances in the coking coal market, new regulations on steel production capacity conversion, and the China - US summit. In October, the main rebar contract rose 1.7%, hot - rolled coil rose 2.2%, iron ore rose 2.6%, coke rose 11.7%, and coking coal rose 16.6% [6]. 3.2 Monetary and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally showed an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. In September, the incremental social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock declined, and the year - on - year difference between social financing and M2 was at a low level [9]. 3.3 Price Index - In September, the CPI was - 0.3% (compared to - 0.4% in August), and the PPI was - 2.3%, with the decline narrowing. In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8 [12]. 3.4 Monthly Steel Data - From January to September, the cumulative production of crude steel decreased by 2.9% year - on - year, indicating that the pressure to control annual crude steel production is not significant. The year - on - year decline in pig iron production was 1.1%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the proportion of scrap steel added in the converter process. Steel exports increased significantly, with an increase of 7250000 tons in steel exports and 7320000 tons in billet exports from January to September [13]. 3.5 Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of October 31, 2025, the total weekly production of five major steel products was 875290 tons, a week - on - week increase of 9970 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.04%. The total weekly consumption was 916000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 24000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1.28%. The total inventory was 1514000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 41130 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 22.58% [14]. 3.6 Steel Production - According to the production data of five major steel products released by Steel Union, production has been relatively stable this year, with less fluctuation compared to previous years. Steel mills had good profits earlier this year, which supported production enthusiasm. However, since entering the fourth quarter, the profitability of steel mills has declined, and production may decrease significantly due to few overhauls during the year [17]. 3.7 Steel Production Profit - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single - ton profit of rebar has dropped from 200 - 300 yuan to near the break - even point, and some steel mills in certain regions are already in the red. Electric furnace profits have been poor this year and are unlikely to improve significantly in November [18]. 3.8 Steel Demand - Demand has shown a counter - seasonal rebound in the past two weeks, but overall demand in November is expected to decline month - on - month. Construction steel demand remains weak, while coil demand is relatively strong, supported by exports [40]. 3.9 Steel Inventory and Basis - In October, the rebar basis was weak, with the 01 basis falling by about 30 yuan/ton. The narrowing of the basis mainly occurred during the second - half - month futures price rebound, indicating that although the spot price has some resilience, weak demand still exerts pressure. The hot - rolled coil basis also declined, with the 01 basis falling by 60 - 70 yuan/ton compared to the end of September, a larger decline than that of rebar. High inventories of hot - rolled coils suppress the spot price [79][84]. 3.10 Steel Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of rebar is running at a low level, fluctuating around - 60, with little change. Weak demand suppresses the spread, but since it is already at the lowest level in recent years, the downward space is limited. The 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil fluctuates around - 10, also with little change [89][93].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry have improved, but downstream demand remains weak. The price of coking coal and coke has increased this week, strengthening cost - side support and limiting the downside space for steel prices. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 2.0707 million tons (+59,100 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.2246 million tons (+6,200 tons) [5]. - **Demand**: Recent high - frequency data shows that the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils has increased. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.2601 million tons (+62,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.2673 million tons (+111,800 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 6.2211 million tons (-189,400 tons), social inventory was 4.3748 million tons (-189,300 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.8463 million tons (-1,000 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.1492 million tons (-42,700 tons), social inventory was 3.3757 million tons (-37,700 tons), and steel mill inventory was 773,500 tons (-5,000 tons) [5]. - **Basis**: Futures fluctuated, and the basis was volatile [5]. - **Summary**: The profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease; pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons. The blast furnace operating rate was 84.71%, a 0.44% week - on - week increase, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 89.94%, a 0.39% week - on - week decrease; the electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a 0.99% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 52.3%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease [5]. 3.2. Macro Aspect - Local time from October 25th to 26th, China and the United States held economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, and the two sides reached a preliminary consensus. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology solicited public opinions on the "Implementation Measures for Capacity Replacement in the Steel Industry (Draft for Comment)". The draft states that in key areas, the total steel production capacity shall not be increased, and the transfer of steel production capacity from non - key areas to key areas and between different key areas is prohibited [6]. 3.3. Raw Materials - **Prices**: This week, the price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke was 1,490 yuan/ton (a 40 - yuan increase), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,575 yuan/ton (no change), and the price of 61.5% PB fines at Qingdao Port was 778 yuan/ton (no change) [17]. - **Pig Iron and Electric Furnace**: Pig iron output continued to decline, and the electric furnace operating rate decreased. As of October 24, 2025, the blast furnace operating rate increased by 0.44% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 0.99% week - on - week, and pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 10,500 tons [19][21]. 3.4. Steel Mill Profitability As of October 24th, the profitability rate of steel mills was 47.62%, a 7.79% week - on - week decrease. The increase in cost - side prices squeezed steel profits [29]. 3.5. Tangshan Blast Furnace Operating Rate As of October 24th, the Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.44%, a 1.76% week - on - week increase [33]. 3.6. Steel Production As of October 24th, rebar production increased by 59,100 tons week - on - week. In terms of process, long - process production increased by 44,100 tons week - on - week, and short - process production increased by 15,000 tons week - on - week. Hot - rolled coil production increased by 6,200 tons week - on - week and remained at a high level [38]. 3.7. Demand - Rebar consumption increased by 62,600 tons week - on - week, and hot - rolled coil demand increased by 111,800 tons week - on - week [44]. - As of October 24th, the weekly average building materials trading volume was 100,500 tons, and the trading volume remained at a low level. The weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,900 tons. Downstream cold - rolled production was 860,700 tons, a 13,400 - ton week - on - week decrease with an increased decline [47][52]. 3.8. Steel Inventory - As of October 24th, Tangshan billet inventory was 540,100 tons, a 96,000 - ton week - on - week increase. The inventory of major steel products was 10.9942 million tons, a 261,000 - ton week - on - week decrease [55]. - Rebar total inventory decreased by 189,400 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 189,300 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 1,000 tons week - on - week [57]. - Hot - rolled total inventory decreased by 42,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 37,700 tons week - on - week, and steel mill inventory decreased by 5,000 tons week - on - week [62]. 3.9. Steel Exports In August, steel exports were 9.41 million tons, a 330,000 - ton month - on - month decrease; from January to August, cumulative steel exports were 77.49 million tons, a 10% year - on - year increase [65]. 3.10. Automobile Production and Sales - In September, automobile production was 3.276 million vehicles, a 466,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales increased by 369,400 tons month - on - month. - In September, new energy vehicle production was 1.617 million vehicles, a 226,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase; new energy vehicle sales were 1.604 million tons, a 209,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. 3.11. Real Estate Data From January to September, real estate investment decreased by 13.9% year - on - year, the newly started housing area decreased by 18.9% year - on - year, the completed housing area decreased by 15.3% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales area decreased by 5.5% year - on - year, the commercial housing sales volume decreased by 7.9% year - on - year, and the funds in place decreased by 8.4% year - on - year [71][72].

Group 1: Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Group 2: Report's Core View - Steel prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support, but demand pressure persists. The market needs more driving factors to break the current situation. Suggestions include maintaining a range - bound trading strategy for single - side trades, holding long positions on the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar for arbitrage, and adopting a wait - and - see approach for options [7]. Group 3: Summary by Chapter Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: Total steel production is starting to decline. The daily average of hot - metal from 247 blast furnaces has dropped below 240 million tons, and the overall steel production has decreased. The daily consumption of scrap steel is 51 million tons [4]. - **Demand**: The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking. Although demand has improved with the cooling weather, downstream construction sites face difficulties in payment collection, and the number of projects on hand in the fourth quarter has declined. The real - estate demand is weak, and the manufacturing PMI is below the boom - bust line, though it has improved. The automobile industry shows strong growth but may face a decline in demand later, and the production of white goods in October is expected to decrease [4]. - **Inventory**: Steel products are generally in the process of destocking. Rebar has seen a faster destocking rate, and hot - rolled coil has also started to destock [4]. - **Outlook**: Steel prices will maintain a range - bound oscillation. The cost provides some support due to factors such as rising coal prices, but demand pressure persists. Future attention should be paid to coal mine safety inspections, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: The summary price of hot - rolled coil (4.75mm general coil) in Shanghai is 3310 yuan/ton (+40), and the summary price of rebar (HRB400: 20mm) in Shanghai is 3240 yuan/ton (-). The price of Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil is 3200 yuan/ton (+10), and the price of rebar in Beijing is 3170 yuan/ton (+10) [11]. - **Profit**: Short - process steelmaking profits have increased, but there is a slight reduction in production. Long - process steelmaking is still in a loss state, but the loss has been slightly reduced. The flat - rate electricity profit of the East China electric furnace is - 231.69 yuan (+15.3), and the off - peak electricity profit is - 67 yuan (+15) [4][26]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Summary - **Real - Estate Data**: From January to September, the floor area under construction of real - estate development enterprises decreased by 9.4% year - on - year, and the new construction area decreased by 18.9%. The sales area and sales volume of new commercial housing also declined [28]. - **Industrial Production Data**: In September 2025, China's crude steel production decreased by 4.6% year - on - year, and the production of some industrial products such as air conditioners, refrigerators, etc., showed different trends of increase or decrease [28]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: In September, the new social financing was 3.53 trillion yuan, and the growth rate of social financing continued to decline. From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of China's fixed - asset investment was - 0.5%, and the growth rates of real - estate, manufacturing, and infrastructure investment all declined [34]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills is 239.9 million tons (-1.05), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills is 33% (-0.2). The small - sample output of rebar is 207.07 million tons (+5.91), and the small - sample output of hot - rolled coil is 322.46 million tons (+0.62) [4][57]. - **Demand**: The small - sample apparent demand for rebar is 226.01 million tons (+8.58), and the small - sample apparent demand for hot - rolled coil is 326.73 million tons (+10.39). The overall steel demand has shifted to destocking, but the demand pressure is still high [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory has decreased by 18.59 million tons, and hot - rolled coil inventory has decreased by 0.93 million tons. The overall steel inventory has decreased by 27.41 million tons [4].

Report Information - Report Title: Black Series Weekly - Steel [2] - Release Date: October 24, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Li Haixiao [3] - Reviewer: Tang Yun [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - In this period, the production of rebar increased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased; the same situation occurred for hot-rolled coils. The apparent demand for the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The rebar 2601 contract fluctuated, and the hot-rolled coil 2601 contract also fluctuated [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro - In September 2025, the new construction of real estate increased month-on-month [5]. 2. Supply - In September 2025, China exported 10.465 million tons of steel, a month-on-month increase of 955,000 tons or 10.0%. From January to September, the cumulative steel exports were 87.955 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.402 million tons or 9.2% [7]. - The pig iron output was 2.399 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 10,500 tons and a year-on-year increase of 42,100 tons [7]. - The output of the five major steel products was 8.6532 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 83,700 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 152,600 tons. The rebar output was 2.0707 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 59,100 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 440,800 tons; the hot-rolled coil output was 3.2246 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 6,200 tons and a year-on-year increase of 180,700 tons [7]. - The electric furnace operating rate was 67.86%, a month-on-month decrease of 0.99% [7]. 3. Inventory - The total inventory of the five major steel products was 15.5485 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 274,100 tons and a year-on-year increase of 2.9553 million tons. The rebar inventory was 6.2211 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 189,400 tons and a year-on-year increase of 1.8738 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 4.1492 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 42,700 tons and a year-on-year increase of 607,500 tons [7]. 4. Demand - The weekly apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.9273 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 173,200 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 10,800 tons [7].