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钢材周度供需数据解读-20250725
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-25 05:10
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The fundamentals of the steel industry remain healthy with no signs of weakening. Driven by macro - expectations, the futures market has risen, and the strong willingness of mid - stream enterprises to replenish inventory has led to a simultaneous increase in futures and spot prices. In the short term, steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Thread steel apparent demand reached 2.1658 million tons (+104,100 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand was 3.1524 million tons (-85,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.86%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products was 8.6813 million tons (-19,800 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.23% [74]. Supply - Thread steel production was 2.1196 million tons (+29,000 tons), a year - on - year increase of 1.39%. Hot - rolled coil production was 3.7749 million tons (-36,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 1.14%. The production of the five major steel products was 8.6697 million tons (-12,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.14% [74]. Inventory - Thread steel inventory was 5.3864 million tons (-46,200 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.85%. Hot - rolled coil inventory was 3.4516 million tons (+22,500 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.66%. The inventory of the five major steel products was 13.365 million tons (-11,600 tons), a year - on - year decrease of 0.09% [74]. Product - specific Situation - **Thread steel**: The futures market rally has stimulated downstream inventory replenishment, leading to a significant increase in apparent demand. With the improvement of EAF profits, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline [3]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Apparent demand has seasonally declined, remaining at a normal level compared to the same period in previous years, with a year - on - year decrease and a slight increase in inventory [3]. - **Medium and heavy plates and other products**: Supply and demand have remained strong, and the inventory of the five major steel products has continued to decline [3].
铁元素与碳元素年度走势再评估
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 08:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints Market Analysis - Overseas consumption remains at a high level, with India continuing to show significant growth. From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [4]. - Domestic steel exports have increased significantly, while domestic demand remains stable, leading to strong demand for raw materials. From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [4]. - The supply of iron elements is tight, and inventory is at a medium level. From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [5][6]. - The supply of carbon elements is relatively tight due to decreased production and imports. Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound [7]. Strategy - The annual outlook suggests that the rate of iron ore inventory accumulation will narrow, and the supply and demand of coking coal and coke will remain in a tight - balance state [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 2025 1 - 5 Global Steel Industry Supply and Demand Analysis Overseas Consumption Remains High, India Continues to Grow Significantly - From January to May 2025, overseas crude steel production totaled 35,151 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.8%, but a year-on-year increase of 0.3% in May. Overseas crude steel consumption totaled 40,416 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.5%. From January to June, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 5,266 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% [16]. - From January to May 2025, overseas total iron production totaled 22,055 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.5%, and iron ore consumption decreased by 178 million tons. In May, overseas total iron production increased by 1.8% year-on-year. From January to May, overseas scrap steel consumption totaled 16,611 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.3% [21]. Domestic Demand Remains Stable, Exports Increase Significantly, and Raw Material Demand Remains Strong - From January to June 2025, domestic crude steel production totaled 55,152 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4%. Crude steel consumption totaled 48,481 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.7%. In June, both production and consumption of domestic crude steel showed positive trends. In the first half of the year, China's net exports of crude steel equivalent totaled 6,362 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 21.3%. In June, the total of crude steel production and exports reached 9,621 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.4%. During the same period, domestic pig iron production totaled 44,865 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, and iron ore consumption increased by 2,198 million tons [25]. Anti - Dumping Investigations Cause Disturbances, but Exports Remain Resilient - In 2024, China's steel exports exceeded 100 million tons, reaching a new high since 2017. In the first half of 2025, China's steel exports totaled 5,815 million tons, an increase of 475 million tons compared to the same period last year. Among the top 10 export destinations, Vietnam, South Korea, and India saw significant declines in imports from China due to tariff increases. Overall, exports remain strong, and most steel products continue to show growth in exports [32]. Iron Element Supply is Tight, Inventory Remains at a Medium Level Domestic Iron Ore Production Declines Month - on - Month, Supply Decreases Year - on - Year in the First Half - From January to June, the cumulative output of domestic iron ore concentrate powder was 12,862 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.0%, continuing the low - supply situation since the second half of last year. It is expected that some production will be replenished in the second half of the year [42]. Iron Ore Supply from Australia and Brazil Increases, Supply from Non - Mainstream Sources Continues to Shrink - From January to June, China's total iron ore imports were 59,255 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. Among them, imports from Australia were 36,417 million tons, a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.1%; imports from Brazil were 11,948 million tons, a decrease of 4.1%. Imports from South Africa and India were 2,050 million tons and 1,337 million tons respectively, with year-on-year changes of + 3.4% and - 46.5%. Imports from other non - Australian, Brazilian, Indian, and South African countries were 7,503 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%. Overall, in June, the decline in iron ore imports from Australia and Brazil narrowed, and the supply from non - mainstream sources showed a contraction trend [44]. Domestic Demand Remains Resilient, Exports are Strong, and Iron Element Inventory is at a Medium - Low Level - From January to June, domestic steel consumption remained resilient. In June, domestic crude steel consumption increased by 3.3% year-on-year, and net exports of crude steel equivalent increased by 22.1%. The total of domestic demand and exports in June decreased month-on-month but increased significantly year-on-year. In the first half of the year, steel mills adopted a production - based - on - sales strategy, and steel inventory continued to decline. Currently, the total iron ore inventory is at a medium level, and steel and scrap steel inventories are at low levels. In the short term, the iron ore market remains in a tight - balance state [56][57]. Production and Imports Decrease, Carbon Element Supply is Relatively Tight Falling Prices and Safety Production Measures Lead to a Decrease in Domestic Coking Coal Production - Since 2023, coal production has been affected by frequent coal mine accidents. In order to eliminate safety hazards and strengthen safety production, relevant government agencies have issued a series of coal production safety policies. At the beginning of this year, the impact of coal mine accidents on supply gradually subsided, and domestic coking coal supply quickly recovered, putting pressure on coking coal prices. In June, affected by the continuous decline in coking coal prices, the pressure on coal mine inventory increased, and coking coal production continued to decline. As of July 17, the daily average output of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines was lower than the same period last year [58][60]. Continuous Price Decline Leads to a Decrease in Coking Coal Imports - In the past few years, imports of coking coal from Mongolia and Russia have continued to increase. In 2024, China's net imports of coking coal reached a record high of 12,114 million tons. From January to June this year, China's net imports of coking coal were 5,282 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 7.36%. Among them, imports from Mongolia decreased by 479 million tons, imports from Russia decreased by 2 million tons, and imports from Australia decreased by 23 million tons. Imports from the United States increased by 206 million tons in the first half of the year, but the import volume was zero in May and June [62][63]. Carbon Element Supply and Demand are in a Tight - Balance State, Inventory Structure is Continuously Optimized - Since the beginning of this year, the supply of carbon elements has been significantly affected by domestic production and imports, and the market is in a tight - balance state. The inventory of carbon elements has been continuously decreasing. After the Spring Festival, the de - stocking trend of carbon elements was stronger than in previous years. From mid - June, with the continuous decline in coking coal supply and strong domestic steel consumption and exports, the inventory of coking coal and carbon elements began to decline, and the coking coal price continued to rebound. Currently, the inventory structure of carbon elements shows a high degree of balance [72]. Re - evaluation of Iron and Carbon Elements Iron Element Supply is Expected to Recover, Iron Ore Inventory will be at a Medium - High Level - In April, overseas consumption was lower than expected, and overseas crude steel production and sales data were revised downwards. It is estimated that overseas crude steel consumption will increase by 1.4% year-on-year in 2025, while crude steel production is expected to decrease by 0.1%. Overseas demand for crude steel imports remains strong, and it is expected to increase by more than 1,350 million tons compared to 2025. Overseas scrap steel consumption is expected to decrease by 679 million tons, and overseas total iron production is expected to increase by 612 million tons, equivalent to an increase of 979 million tons in iron ore consumption. Based on the assumption that domestic steel consumption will increase by 0.4% year-on-year and considering the increase in iron ore imports in the second half of this year, relevant supply assumptions are made [77]. Production Increases, Imports Decrease, Supply and Demand of Coking Coal and Coke are in a Tight - Balance State - Based on the assumption of an increase in crude steel and pig iron production, it is estimated that the consumption of coke (for ironmaking) will increase by 652 million tons in 2025. Considering the poor coking profit in the past, coking plants generally adopt a production - based - on - sales strategy. The annual coke production is expected to increase by 439 million tons. The coke market will remain in a tight - balance state, and inventory will remain at a low level. Given the current decline in domestic coking coal production and a significant decrease in imports, the coking coal market will also be in a tight - balance state, and coking coal inventory is expected to reach a low level [3][7].
周报:淡季需求压力仍存,钢价冲高回落-20250715
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-14 23:30
Report Title - The report is titled "Weak Demand Pressure in the Off - season, Steel Prices Rise and Then Fall - Weekly Report 20250707" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The macro - economic environment shows enhanced expectations of warming policies, leading to a significant rebound in steel futures and spot prices. However, in the industrial aspect, the overall supply - demand structure continues to weaken during the high - temperature and rainy off - season. Steel prices are expected to face short - term correction pressure as the previous macro - positive sentiment fades [3][9] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - **Price Changes**: In the previous week, due to the improved macro - atmosphere and enhanced expectations of capacity control, commodity prices generally rebounded. The spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil in major cities increased, with rebar in Shanghai rising by 90 yuan/ton to 3170 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil in Shanghai rising by 60 yuan/ton to 3250 yuan/ton. Futures prices also showed significant increases, with the RB01 contract rising by 88 yuan/ton to 3093 yuan/ton [9] - **Inventory Changes**: Rebar social inventory slightly increased, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased for two consecutive weeks. Rebar total inventory decreased by 3.79 tons to 545.21 tons, while hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 3.77 tons to 344.93 tons [9] 2. Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: National rebar weekly output was 221.08 tons (up 1.49% week - on - week, down 11.01% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output was 328.14 tons (up 0.28% week - on - week, up 0.57% year - on - year). Rebar production increased in both blast furnaces and electric furnaces, with blast furnace output at 195.24 tons (up 1.23% week - on - week, down 7.62% year - on - year) and electric furnace output at 25.84 tons (up 3.44% week - on - week, up 1.69% year - on - year). The blast furnace operating rate was 83.46% (down 0.43% week - on - week, up 0.42% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 66.87% (down 4.66% week - on - week, down 4.46% year - on - year) [15][17][22] - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 224.87 tons (up 2.26% week - on - week, down 4.42% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 324.37 tons (down 0.58% week - on - week, up 2.10% year - on - year). The 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 10.68 tons (up 8.23% week - on - week, down 16.56% year - on - year) [36] - **Inventory**: Rebar slightly reduced inventory, with social inventory increasing and factory inventory decreasing. Rebar factory inventory was 180.47 tons (down 2.76% week - on - week, down 6.81% year - on - year), social inventory was 364.74 tons (up 0.37% week - on - week, down 35.63% year - on - year), and total inventory was 545.21 tons (down 0.69% week - on - week, down 30.69% year - on - year). Hot - rolled coil inventory increased for two consecutive weeks, with both factory and social inventory slightly rising. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 78.32 tons (up 0.13% week - on - week, down 13.31% year - on - year), social inventory was 266.61 tons (up 1.40% week - on - week, down 19.58% year - on - year), and total inventory was 344.93 tons (up 1.11% week - on - week, down 18.14% year - on - year) [40][45] - **Downstream Industries**: In the real estate sector, the weekly transaction area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 39.03% week - on - week and 2.42% year - on - year, and the transaction area of land in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased by 38.28% week - on - week and increased by 8.91% year - on - year. In the automotive sector, in May 2025, China's automobile production and sales reached 2.649 million and 2.686 million vehicles respectively, with month - on - month increases of 1.1% and 3.7%, and year - on - year increases of 11.6% and 11.2% [48][51] 3. Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil decreased to 2417.8 tons (down 13.25% week - on - week, down 4.15% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2483.9 tons (up 5.12% week - on - week, down 10.89% year - on - year). The iron ore price index was 95.44 (up 3.38% week - on - week, down 13.70% year - on - year) [59] - **Demand**: The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume of 45 ports was 319.29 tons (down 2.04% week - on - week, up 1.87% year - on - year). The inventory - to - sales ratio of 247 steel enterprises was 29.65 days (up 0.95% week - on - week, down 5.63% year - on - year) [64] - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports decreased by 0.37% week - on - week to 13878.4 tons, and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 0.80% week - on - week to 8918.57 tons. The average available days of iron ore for 114 steel enterprises were 22.44 days (up 0.22% week - on - week, up 3.55% year - on - year) [70] 4. Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines increased to 83.82% (up 1.62% week - on - week, down 6.90% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal - washing plants was 59.72% (up 1.05% week - on - week, down 14.48% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume increased by 64% week - on - week to 12.56 tons (down 19.13% year - on - year) [76] - **Demand**: The daily coking coal auction成交 rate was 79.17% (down 7% week - on - week, down 19.51% year - on - year), and the weekly成交 rate was 86.7% (up 23.31% week - on - week, down 2.87% year - on - year). The daily output of hot metal decreased to 240.85 tons (down 1.44 tons week - on - week, up 1.53 tons year - on - year) [78] - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants increased by 5.57% week - on - week to 716.49 tons, the port inventory of coking coal increased by 6.54% week - on - week to 304.27 tons, and the coking coal inventory of steel mills increased by 1.03% week - on - week to 789.43 tons. The coke inventory of independent coking plants decreased by 16.45% week - on - week to 61.6 tons, the coke port inventory decreased by 4.48% week - on - week to 191.12 tons, and the coke inventory of steel mills increased by 1.55% week - on - week to 637.49 tons [91][97] - **Spot Price**: After four rounds of price cuts, coke prices temporarily stabilized. The price of low - sulfur main coking coal in Shanxi was 1180 yuan/ton (up 10 yuan/ton week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang was 980 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 820 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103] 5. Spread Analysis - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The basis of hot - rolled coil significantly contracted, and the spreads between the 10 - 1 contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil both contracted [105] - **Others**: The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore contracted, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar fluctuated within a narrow range [111]
《黑色》日报-20250701
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 07:40
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the reports [1][3][5] 2. Core Views Steel Industry - In the first half of the year, steel supply and demand were both strong, with continuous inventory reduction, but prices were dragged down by coking coal costs and continued to fall. Currently, prices show signs of stabilizing and rebounding. Demand has weakened slightly month - on - month, mainly due to the high growth of steel exports. In June, supply and demand were close to balance, and inventory stopped falling and remained flat. From July to August, it is the off - season for demand. In the second half of the year, the main interference factor for demand is still China - US tariffs, and the overall demand expectation remains weak. In the medium term, steel maintains a pattern of weak cost support and poor demand expectations. Due to the resumption of production in coking coal producing areas, prices have weakened again. It is recommended to try shorting at the current position or selling out - of - the - money call options [1][3] Coke Industry - As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices remained stable. The fourth round of coke price cuts was implemented on June 23, with a cumulative reduction of 170/190 yuan/ton, and a phased bottom is gradually emerging, and market expectations are starting to improve. On the supply side, due to environmental inspections and maintenance, supply has tightened marginally, and independent coking plant开工 has declined. On the demand side, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, with rigid demand support, but blast furnace开工 decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued to decline after reaching its peak. In terms of inventory, coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decline, and steel mill inventories decreased. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the premium of coke futures over spot provides hedging space. It is recommended to hedge the Coke 2509 contract at high prices, stay on the sidelines for speculation, and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] Coking Coal Industry - As of the previous day's close, coking coal futures showed a volatile downward trend, while spot prices were stable with a slight upward bias. On the supply side, due to environmental protection and other factors, production in Inner Mongolia and Shanxi has decreased, and coal mines are starting to hold prices. Although the overall production has decreased slightly, it is still at a relatively high level. Imported coal prices have rebounded slightly, but there is still obvious inventory pressure. On the demand side, coking plant开工 has started to decline, and downstream blast furnace molten iron production continues to decline after reaching its peak. However, in June, molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day, and downstream demand still has resilience, and restocking demand shows signs of recovery. In terms of inventory, coal mine inventories are at a high level and are currently reducing inventory through production cuts. Ports are also reducing inventory from a high level, and downstream users are controlling inventory. The overall inventory is at a medium level. For strategies, the spot fundamentals have improved, and there is a hedging demand for spot merchants after basis repair. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - sided trading and consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke for arbitrage [5] 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - **Rebar**: Spot prices in East China increased by 50 yuan/ton to 3130 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3160 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also showed small increases [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil**: Spot prices in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, remained unchanged in North China at 3110 yuan/ton, and decreased by 10 yuan/ton in South China to 3180 yuan/ton. Futures contract prices also had small increases [1][3] Cost and Profit - **Cost**: The price of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 2900 yuan/ton, and the cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 1 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, while the cost of Jiangsu converter rebar increased by 10 yuan/ton to 2954 yuan/ton [1][3] - **Profit**: The profit of East China rebar increased by 18 yuan/ton to 87 yuan/ton, the profit of North China rebar decreased by 2 yuan/ton to 167 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China rebar increased by 8 yuan/ton to 157 yuan/ton. The profit of East China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton, the profit of North China hot - rolled coil increased by 8 yuan/ton to 117 yuan/ton, and the profit of South China hot - rolled coil increased by 18 yuan/ton to 197 yuan/ton [1][3] Production - **Daily Average Molten Iron Production**: It decreased slightly by 0.1 to 242.1 tons, with a decline rate of 0.0% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Production**: It increased by 12.5 tons to 881.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.4% [1][3] - **Rebar Production**: It increased by 5.7 tons to 217.8 tons, with an increase rate of 2.7%. Among them, electric - arc furnace production increased by 1.6 tons to 25.0 tons, with an increase rate of 6.8%, and converter production increased by 4.1 tons to 192.9 tons, with an increase rate of 2.2% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Production**: It increased by 1.8 tons to 327.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.6% [1][3] Inventory - **Five - major Steel Products Inventory**: It increased slightly by 1.1 tons to 1340.0 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [1][3] - **Rebar Inventory**: It decreased by 2.1 tons to 549.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Inventory**: It increased by 1.0 tons to 341.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] Transaction and Demand - **Building Materials Transaction Volume**: It remained unchanged at 10.5, with an increase rate of 0.4% [1][3] - **Five - major Steel Products Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.3 tons to 879.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [1][3] - **Rebar Apparent Demand**: It increased by 0.7 tons to 219.9 tons, with an increase rate of 0.3% [1][3] - **Hot - rolled Coil Apparent Demand**: It decreased by 4.4 tons to 326.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [1][3] Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - **Coke Spot Prices**: The price of Grade - A wet - quenched coke in Shanxi remained unchanged at 1094 yuan/ton, while the price of quasi - Grade - A wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 1160 yuan/ton [5] - **Coke Futures Prices**: The Coke 09 contract decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 1404 yuan/ton, and the Coke 01 contract decreased by 19 yuan/ton to 1443 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Demand - **247 Steel Mills Molten Iron Production**: It increased slightly by 0.1 tons to 242.3 tons, with an increase rate of 0.0% [5] Inventory - **Total Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 12.0 tons to 940.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.3% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 2.6 tons to 113.0 tons, with a decline rate of - 2.2% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coke Inventory**: It decreased by 6.5 tons to 627.8 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.04% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 3.0 tons to 200.1 tons, with a decline rate of - 1.5% [5] Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.2 tons to - 5.4 tons, with a decline rate of - 3.84% [5] Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - **Coking Coal Spot Prices**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse receipt) increased by 5 yuan/ton to 843 yuan/ton [5] - **Coking Coal Futures Prices**: The Coking Coal 09 contract decreased by 23 yuan/ton to 825 yuan/ton, and the Coking Coal 01 contract decreased by 29 yuan/ton to 861 yuan/ton [5] Supply - **Fenwei Sample Coal Mine Production**: Raw coal production decreased by 3.6 tons to 852.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.4%, and clean coal production decreased by 2.3 tons to 434.9 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.5% [5] Demand - **Full - sample Coking Plant Daily Average Production**: It decreased by 0.2 tons to 64.5 tons, with a decline rate of - 0.3% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Daily Average Production**: It remained unchanged at 47.4 tons, with an increase rate of 0.1% [5] Inventory - **Fenwei Coal Mine Clean Coal Inventory**: It decreased by 35.6 tons to 223.3 tons, with a decline rate of - 13.8% [5] - **Full - sample Coking Plant Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 13.2 tons to 809.0 tons, with an increase rate of 1.74% [5] - **247 Steel Mills Coking Coal Inventory**: It increased by 6.6 tons to 781.2 tons, with an increase rate of 0.8% [5] - **Port Inventory**: It decreased by 17.7 tons to 285.6 tons, with a decline rate of - 5.8% [5]
华龙期货螺纹周报-20250630
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 11:07
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment Rating: ★★ [5] 2) Core Viewpoints - Last week, the price of the rebar 2510 contract rose by 0.03%. The production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term. It is recommended to wait and see [4][5][35][36] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - **Futures Price**: The daily K - line chart of the rebar futures main contract is presented, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [8][9] - **Spot Price**: The market price of rebar is mentioned, with data from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [10][12] - **Basis and Spread**: Data is from Wind Information and Hualong Futures Investment Consulting Department [16] Important Market Information - Li Qiang chaired an executive meeting of the State Council to hear a report on implementing the spirit of the National Science and Technology Conference and accelerating the construction of a science - and technology power. The second - quarter regular meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People's Bank of China in 2025 proposed to increase the revitalization of existing commercial housing and land and consolidate the stability of the real estate market. On June 25, the People's Bank of China carried out 300 billion yuan of Medium - term Lending Facility (MLF) operations with a one - year term [17] Supply - side Situation - The data of Tangshan blast furnace operating rate is involved, but specific data is not provided in the given content [18] Demand - side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI in the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the purchasing manager index in the steel circulation industry of Lange Steel was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. Information on construction new starts, construction and completion floor area, commercial housing sales, and Shanghai terminal wire and rod procurement volume is also mentioned [25][31] Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel data, on the 27th, safety inspections in Guxian, Linfen, Shanxi Province became stricter. A local coal mine was shut down for rectification due to safety hazards, involving a production capacity of 900,000 tons, mainly producing low - sulfur primary coking coal, with a shutdown period of 10 - 15 days. Last week, the weekly production of rebar was 2.1784 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 56,600 tons; the factory inventory was 1.856 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 32,800 tons; the social inventory was 3.634 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 53,500 tons. The weekly production of the five major steel products was 8.8099 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 124,800 tons; the total inventory was 13.4003 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 11,400 tons; the apparent demand was 8.7985 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 43,300 tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 0.71%; the blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 90.83%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04% and a year - on - year increase of 1.70%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged week - on - week and a year - on - year increase of 16.45%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4229 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 110,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 285,000 tons. Jiangsu Yonggang plans to overhaul a 1080³ blast furnace for two months starting in early July, which is expected to affect about 200,000 tons of pig iron [34] 后市展望 - Last week, the production of rebar increased for the second consecutive week, factory inventory and apparent demand turned from decline to increase, and social inventory decreased for the 16th consecutive week. Recently, the macro - sentiment has improved, while the supply and demand of steel have both weakened. The production has rebounded in the past two weeks. Currently, the fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the steel price is expected to fluctuate in the medium term [35] Operation Strategy - It is recommended to wait and see [36]
螺纹需求淡季现韧性 供需双弱局面不改钢价低价整理为主
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 06:34
Core Viewpoint - The overall market for rebar is cautious, with a supply-demand imbalance persisting, leading to expectations of continued low-level consolidation in prices in the short term [1][2]. Group 1: Production and Inventory Data - As of June 26, the national rebar production increased by 56,600 tons week-on-week to 2,178,400 tons, but decreased by 269,200 tons year-on-year [1]. - Social inventory decreased by 53,500 tons week-on-week to 3,634,000 tons, and year-on-year it fell by 2,148,400 tons [1]. - Factory inventory rose by 32,800 tons week-on-week to 1,856,000 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 207,800 tons [1]. - Rebar apparent consumption increased by 7,200 tons week-on-week to 2,199,100 tons, but decreased by 158,900 tons year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The average daily transaction volume of construction materials nationwide from Monday to Wednesday was 96,500 tons, reflecting a week-on-week decline of 0.9% [2]. - In Hangzhou, the average daily outflow of rebar was 33,000 tons, which increased by 3.45% week-on-week, while rebar inventory fell to 633,000 tons [2]. - From January to May 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 4,716,500 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 305.80%, which has alleviated some supply pressure on rebar [2]. Group 3: Expert Commentary - The director of black research at Everbright Futures noted that despite the seasonal demand weakness, rebar demand has shown resilience [1]. - The recent reduction in coke prices has improved the profitability of long-process steel mills, leading to increased production enthusiasm for rebar [1]. - Overall, the market sentiment remains cautious, with expectations of continued low-level consolidation in rebar prices [2].
铁水转增钢材去库,钢价震荡反复
Zhong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 11:03
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For steel products, the macro - geopolitical situation boosts energy prices, providing support. The five major steel products continue to reduce inventory. However, the demand for rebar in the off - season is under pressure, with supply increasing and demand decreasing, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the next two weeks. Hot - rolled coil demand shows some resilience, and its inventory turns from increasing to decreasing. Steel prices still face the pressure of short - term supply - demand weakening, and the strategy is to be bearish on rebounds [3]. - For iron ore, the supply from Australia and Brazil rebounds, and the arrival volume increases. Currently, steel mills' profits are good, and the daily output of molten iron increases. But as the off - season deepens, the terminal demand weakens, and the supply increment may be greater than the demand increment. It is expected to oscillate in a range, and be bearish on rebounds [4]. - For coking coal and coke, as some previously减产 mines resume production, the production of coking coal increases slightly. The fourth round of price cuts for coke starts, and the daily output of molten iron increases, giving some support to coking coal and coke. The prices are expected to stabilize in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Geopolitical situations disturb the market, and steel prices oscillate at a low level. The energy price increase provides support for commodities. The industry continues to reduce inventory, with rebar inventory reduction slowing down and hot - rolled coil inventory turning from increasing to decreasing. Market transactions are concentrated in the low - price area [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: National rebar weekly output is 212.18 tons (up 2.22% month - on - month, down 7.96% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil weekly output is 325.45 tons (up 0.25% month - on - month, up 1.47% year - on - year). Rebar blast furnace output increases while electric furnace output decreases [16][18][23]. - **Operating Rate**: The national blast furnace operating rate is 83.82% (up 0.49% month - on - month, up 2.16% year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate is 70.93% (down 4.16% month - on - month, up 0.75% year - on - year) [28]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit is + 155 yuan/ton (up 14.81% week - on - week, up 59.79% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit is + 100 yuan/ton (up 66.67% week - on - week, up 4.17% year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption is 219.19 tons (down 0.35% month - on - month, down 7.04% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption is 330.69 tons (up 3.38% month - on - month, up 3.68% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory is 551.07 tons (down 1.26% month - on - month, down 28.95% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory is 340.17 tons (down 1.52% month - on - month, down 18.15% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: Real estate sales volume increases slightly at a low level, and land market transactions decrease month - on - month. In May 2025, China's automobile production and sales increase both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil is 3009.8 tons (up 8.81% month - on - month, up 6.25% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports is 2562.7 tons (up 7.47% month - on - month, up 3.63% year - on - year) [60]. - **Demand**: The daily output of molten iron is 242.18 tons (up 0.57 tons month - on - month, up 2.24 tons year - on - year), and the port dredging volume is 313.56 tons (up 4.09% month - on - month, up 3.21% year - on - year) [65]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports is 13894.16 tons (down 0.28% month - on - month, down 6.92% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises is 8936.24 tons (up 1.56% month - on - month, down 3.02% year - on - year) [71]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The operating rate of coking coal mines is 84.49% (up 0.93% month - on - month, down 3.41% year - on - year), the operating rate of coal washing plants is 61.34% (up 6.94% month - on - month, down 7.86% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume is 9.52 tons (down 12.31% month - on - month, down 38.27% year - on - year) [77]. - **Coking Enterprises**: The profit per ton of coke for independent coking plants is - 23 yuan/ton (up 23 yuan/ton month - on - month, down 25 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the capacity utilization rate is 73.42% (down 0.73% month - on - month, up 0.12% year - on - year) [85]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Independent coking plant coking coal inventory is 665.62 tons (down 0.55% month - on - month, down 10.82% year - on - year), steel mill coking coal inventory is 774.45 tons (up 0.04% month - on - month, up 2.37% year - on - year), and coking coal port inventory is 303.31 tons (down 2.79% month - on - month, up 29.34% year - on - year) [91]. - **Coke Inventory**: Independent coking plant coke inventory is 80.93 tons (down 7.31% month - on - month, up 126.38% year - on - year), steel mill coke inventory is 634.2 tons (down 1.34% month - on - month, up 14.04% year - on - year), and coke port inventory is 203.11 tons (unchanged month - on - month, down 0.12% year - on - year) [97]. - **Spot Price**: The price of low - sulfur coking coal in Shanxi is 1170 yuan/ton (unchanged week - on - week, down 730 yuan/ton year - on - year), and the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang is 1030 yuan/ton (unchanged month - on - month, down 720 yuan/ton year - on - year) [103]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil shrinks, and the 10 - 1 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coil widens slightly. The 9 - 1 spread of coking coal and coke shrinks, and the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar widens slightly [105][111].
螺纹周报-20250623
Hua Long Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 01:51
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Investment rating: ★★ [6] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Last week, the output of rebar increased after a decline, the factory inventory decreased for the fourth consecutive week, the social inventory decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week, and the apparent demand decreased for the third consecutive week. Currently, both supply and demand of steel products are weakening, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [5][33] - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [6][34] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis - As of June 20, 2025, the spot price of rebar in Shanghai was 3,070 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day, and the spot price in Tianjin was 3,220 yuan/ton, also unchanged from the previous trading day [10] Important Market Information - From January to May, the national general public budget revenue was 9.6623 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.3%. Among them, the national tax revenue was 7.9156 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.6%; the non-tax revenue was 1.7467 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%. The national general public budget expenditure was 11.2953 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.2% [15] Supply - Side Situation - As of June 20, 2025, 247 steel mills had a blast furnace operating rate of 83.82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.41% and a year - on - year increase of 1.01%; the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a month - on - month increase of 0.21% and a year - on - year increase of 1.03%; the steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.87% and a year - on - year increase of 7.36%; the daily average pig iron output was 2.4218 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.57 million tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.24 million tons [5][32] - On June 20, Tangshan steel mills received a notice that from June 21 - 30, they would implement emission reduction measures, including a 30% reduction in sintering machine production, adjusted converter production rhythms, and blast furnaces adjusting production loads according to the converter rhythm [31][32] Demand - Side Situation - As of May 2025, the current value of the non - manufacturing PMI for the construction industry was 51, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%; the current value of the Lang Steel: Steel Distribution Industry Purchasing Managers' Index was 47.5, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3% [21] Inventory - Side Situation - Last week, the rebar factory inventory decreased for the fourth consecutive week, and the social inventory decreased for the fifteenth consecutive week [5][33] Fundamental Analysis - The average national profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants was - 23 yuan/ton; the average profit of Shanxi quasi - first - grade coke was - 3 yuan/ton, Shandong quasi - first - grade coke was 31 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia second - grade coke was - 68 yuan/ton, and Hebei quasi - first - grade coke was 49 yuan/ton [32] 后市展望 - Currently, both supply and demand of steel products are weakening, and steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the medium term [5][33] Operation Strategy - The trading strategy is to suggest waiting and seeing [6][34]
螺纹钢周报:驱动不足,钢价延续低位震荡-20250622
Hua Lian Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 13:33
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory. Building materials' inventory reduction continued to slow down, while plates saw a slight reduction. Among them, the factory and social inventories of rebar and wire rod continued to decline slightly, the factory and social inventories of hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil turned to a slight reduction, and the factory and social inventories of medium and heavy plates both increased [7]. - The profit of blast furnace steel mills has recovered, with the operating rate and capacity utilization rate increasing month-on-month, and the daily average molten iron production increasing slightly. The operating rate of electric furnaces decreased due to losses. The output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, with significant increases in the output of rebar and wire rod, and a slight month-on-month increase in the output of hot-rolled coil. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Among them, the decline in the apparent demand of rebar slowed down, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. Currently, the impact of seasonal factors on demand still exists, and there is still marginal weakening pressure on demand [7]. - Recently, geopolitical issues have disrupted the international energy market, boosting coal prices and causing the prices of the black series to stop falling and fluctuate at low levels. In the industry, Tangshan recently received a production restriction notice, which will affect steel supply. However, since steel mills still have overall profits, the production reduction efforts of steel mills are limited, and the reduction in steel output is not obvious. As it enters the consumption off-season, the elasticity of terminal demand is insufficient, and the inventory reduction is gradually slowing down. Currently, there is no obvious contradiction between steel supply and demand, but consumption is marginally weakening, and the supply-demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. In the short term, the market will continue to fluctuate following macro news, but the demand outlook is expected to be weak, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate at low levels [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Week - Weekly Viewpoints and Strategies - **Inventory**: The five major steel products continued to experience a slight reduction in inventory, with different trends for different varieties [7]. - **Supply**: The profit of blast furnace steel mills recovered, and the output of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. Driven by profits, steel mills still lack the motivation to reduce production [7]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month, but seasonal factors still affected demand, and there was marginal weakening pressure [7]. - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical issues affected the black series prices, and the production restriction notice in Tangshan had limited impact on steel supply reduction. Entering the consumption off-season, the inventory reduction slowed down, and steel prices continued to fluctuate at low levels [7]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the pressure around 3020 for the RB2510 contract and the repair of the basis between futures and spot [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - As of June 20, 2025, the RB2510 contract closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the HC2510 contract closed at 3116 yuan/ton. The Shanghai rebar basis was 98 yuan/ton, and the Shanghai hot-rolled coil basis was 84 yuan/ton. The RB10 - 01 contract spread closed at 7 yuan/ton, and the HC10 - 01 contract spread closed at 9 yuan/ton. The Shanghai spot screw - coil spread was - 110 yuan/ton, and the main contract screw - coil spread was - 124 yuan/ton [16][34]. 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of June 20, the total inventory of the five major steel products was 1338.89 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 15.67 million tons. Among them, the rebar inventory was 551.07 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 7.01 million tons; the hot-rolled coil inventory was 340.17 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 5.24 million tons; the wire rod inventory was 94.09 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 3.64 million tons; the cold-rolled coil inventory was 172.81 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.41 million tons; and the medium and heavy plate inventory was 180.75 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63 million tons [9]. 3.4 Supply - The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.41 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.21 percentage points; the profitability rate was 59.31%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.87 percentage points; the daily average molten iron production was 242.18 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 0.57 million tons. The operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces was 70.93%, with a month-on-month decrease of 3.08 percentage points; the capacity utilization rate was 54.54%, with a month-on-month decrease of 2.19 percentage points; the scrap consumption was 252.27 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 1.71 million tons. The total output of the five major steel products was 868.51 million tons, with a month-on-month increase of 9.66 million tons. Among them, the output of rebar and wire rod increased significantly, and the output of hot-rolled coil increased slightly month-on-month [9]. 3.5 Demand - The apparent demand of the five major steel products increased month-on-month. The apparent demand of rebar decreased at a slower rate, and the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil increased significantly month-on-month. The daily average trading volume of traders (MA5) was 9.42 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.47 million tons; the Shanghai wire rod procurement volume was 16,200 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 200 tons; the apparent demand of rebar was 219.19 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.78 million tons; the apparent demand of hot-rolled coil was 330.69 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 10.81 million tons; the apparent demand of wire rod was 88.7 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.81 million tons; the apparent demand of cold-rolled coil was 89.76 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.53 million tons; the apparent demand of medium and heavy plates was 155.84 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 0.29 million tons [7][9].
市场情绪好转,钢价区间震荡
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-22 11:38
Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The steel market is currently in a state where supply - demand contradictions are not significant. For rebar, as the building materials enter the off - season, the production, sales, and inventory are continuously declining, and the weak off - season demand will suppress steel prices. For hot - rolled coils, the profit of plates is better than that of building materials, with strong production and sales resilience. Although there is a slight decline in exports, it remains at a high level in the short term. Later, attention should be paid to Sino - US tariff negotiations and domestic demand stimulus policies [1][2]. 3. Section Summaries Market Analysis - **Price**: This week, the main contracts of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. As of Friday's close, the rebar main contract 2510 closed at 2992 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract 2510 closed at 3116 yuan/ton [1][5]. - **Supply**: On June 19, the blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.82%, a 0.41 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.01 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate was 90.79%, a 0.21 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 1.02 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 59.31%, a 0.87 - percentage - point increase from last week and a 7.36 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average pig iron output was 2.4218 million tons, a decrease of 0.57 million tons from last week but an increase of 2.24 million tons year - on - year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6851 million tons, a 96,600 - ton increase from last week. Among them, rebar output was 2.1218 million tons, a 46,100 - ton increase from last week, and hot - rolled coil output was 3.2545 million tons, an 8000 - ton increase from last week [1][25]. - **Consumption**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 8.8418 million tons, a 160,800 - ton increase from last week. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1919 million tons, a decrease of 7800 tons from last week, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.3069 million tons, an increase of 108,100 tons from last week [1][29]. - **Inventory**: This week, the total inventory of the five major steel products reached 13.3889 million tons, a decrease of 156,700 tons from last week. The rebar inventory was 5.5107 million tons, a decrease of 70,100 tons from last week, and the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 3.4017 million tons, a decrease of 52,400 tons from last week [2][32]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The strategy for unilateral trading is to expect the market to move in a range - bound manner. - **Other Strategies**: There are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [3].