美元印钞机的轰鸣声中，全球资产池泛起涟漪，波兰央行的一项决定引发连锁反应。 美联储主席候选人凯文·沃什提出一项让华尔街瞩目的计划：如果他当选，美联储将与财政部达成协议，印钞3万亿美元为美国国债兜底。 这一提议迅速在全 球货币市场引发震动。 消息传出后几小时内，波兰央行迅速批准了一项购买150吨黄金的计划，这将使波兰黄金储备总量达到700吨，成为全球黄金储备前十的国家。 2026年初，美国媒体彭博社报道了下一任美联储主席候选人凯文·沃什的竞选构想。 他提出美联储应与财政部达成协议，在其任期内印钞3万亿美元为美国国 债进行兜底。 沃什在构想中表示，美联储设定利率的职责之一就是关注美国政府债务成本。 目前美国国债偿付额已超过1万亿美元，财政部赤字预算也十分危险。 这不是美国第一次考虑大规模印钞。 疫情期间，美联储曾在一个月内印钞3万亿美元，而这相当于2008年至2019年整整11年的印钞总量。 2020年，美联储实 施了"无限量量化宽松"政策，每日印制数百亿美元，成功将濒临崩盘的股市与债市挽回。 作为回应，波兰央行迅速行动。 2026年1月20日，该行宣布批准一项购买多达150吨黄金的计划。 完成增持后，波兰的黄金 ...

Core Viewpoint - As of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves reached $339.91 billion, marking an increase of $41.2 billion from December 2025, representing a growth rate of 1.23% [1] Group 1: Foreign Exchange Reserves - The increase in foreign exchange reserves in January 2026 is the highest since January 2024, driven by a decline in the US dollar index and a general rise in global financial asset prices [1][4] - The foreign exchange reserves have remained above $3.3 trillion for six consecutive months, the highest level since December 2015, influenced by a significant drop in the dollar index and rising global stock indices [5] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is likely to continue net selling foreign exchange reserve assets to prevent excessive growth in reserves while balancing safety and profitability [6] Group 2: Economic Factors - The attractiveness of China's capital market to foreign investment is expected to increase due to ongoing policies facilitating cross-border investment and financing [3][8] - China's economy is showing resilience, which supports the stability of foreign exchange reserves [3][8] - The overall rise in global asset prices in January was influenced by multiple factors, including geopolitical risks and market reactions to US monetary policy [4][5] Group 3: Gold Reserves - As of January 2026, China's official gold reserves stood at 7.419 million ounces, with a slight increase of 40,000 ounces from the previous month [9] - The PBOC's continued accumulation of gold is seen as a strategy to optimize international reserve structure and enhance the credibility of the national currency amid rising global geopolitical risks [9][10] - The current gold reserve proportion is approximately 9.7%, significantly below the global average of around 15%, indicating a need for further accumulation of gold reserves [9][10]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Recently, the equity and precious metal markets have entered an adjustment phase, with a significant decline in market risk appetite. Coupled with the central bank's increased liquidity injection before the holiday to offset the pressure of cash withdrawal, the capital price remains low. In the short - term, multiple positive factors may drive the bond market to strengthen slightly. However, there is no clear main line in the bond market before the holiday, market trading is light, and the downward space for yields is limited. It is expected that interest rates will continue to fluctuate within a narrow range [4] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - **Futures Closing Price and Volume**: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.06%, 0.08%, 0.04%, and 0.14% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes decreased by 2217 and 25288 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes increased by 7777 and 10661 respectively [2] - **Futures Spreads**: Some spreads such as TL2603 - 2606, T2603 - 2606, and TF2603 - 2606 increased, while others like TS2603 - 2606, T03 - TL03, etc. decreased [2] - **Futures Positions**: The main contract positions of T, TF, TS, and TL all decreased. The long positions of the top 20 in T, TF, TS, and TL increased, and the short positions also increased. The net short positions of T, TF, and TS increased, while that of TL decreased [2] 3.2 Bond Market Conditions - **CTD Bond Net Price**: The net prices of several CTD bonds such as 250018.IB, 220025.IB, etc. all increased [2] - **Active Bond Yields**: The yields of 1 - year active bonds increased by 1.00bp, while those of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year active bonds decreased by 0.10bp, 0.75bp, 1.00bp, and 0.40bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rate Conditions - **Short - Term Interest Rates**: The silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day interest rates increased by 14.50bp, 12.42bp, and 3.57bp respectively. Shibor overnight decreased by 0.70bp, while Shibor 7 - day and 14 - day increased by 7.00bp and 8.00bp respectively [2] - **LPR Interest Rates**: The 1 - year and 5 - year LPR interest rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of reverse repurchase operations was 1130 billion, the maturity scale was 750 billion, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 days, with a net investment of 380 billion [2] 3.5 Industry News - The State Council executive meeting studied policies and measures to promote effective investment, aiming to plan and promote a number of major projects in key areas [2] - Premier Li Qiang pointed out that macro - policies should be implemented in advance, and fiscal funds should be arranged as early as possible. Policy pre - research and reserve should be done well [3] - As of the end of January 2026, China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, and gold reserves increased for 15 consecutive months [3] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - On February 11 at 09:30, China's January CPI & PPI data will be released - On February 11 at 21:30, the US January non - farm payroll data will be released [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data indicates a strengthening of the Chinese yuan against various currency baskets, reflecting a positive trend in the currency's valuation and external economic factors supporting this movement [1][5][6]. Group 1: Currency Index Performance - The CFETS RMB exchange rate index stood at 98.34, increasing by 1.35% week-on-week [1][2]. - The BIS currency basket RMB exchange rate index reported 105.44, with a weekly rise of 1.38% [1][2]. - The SDR currency basket RMB exchange rate index was at 93.44, showing a weekly increase of 0.92% [1][2]. Group 2: External Economic Factors - The U.S. Congress passed a funding bill, resolving a partial government shutdown, which may influence market sentiment [5]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed cautious optimism about the U.S. economic outlook, with discussions on inflation and interest rate adjustments ongoing [5]. - The U.S. consumer confidence index reached 57.3, the highest in six months, while inflation expectations dropped to 3.5%, the lowest in a year [5]. Group 3: Domestic Economic Factors - China's foreign exchange reserves increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching $33,991 billion, up by $412 billion or 1.23% from the previous month [6]. - Gold reserves rose to 7,419 million ounces, with an increase of 40,000 ounces month-on-month [6]. - The stable economic performance in China is seen as a support for maintaining a reasonable level of the RMB exchange rate [6]. Group 4: Market Trends and Predictions - The RMB has appreciated for eleven consecutive weeks, with moderate volatility against a basket of currencies [7]. - Seasonal factors, such as pre-Spring Festival currency settlement, have contributed to the RMB's strengthening [7]. - Future RMB performance may depend on external factors, particularly the U.S. dollar's movements, as seasonal influences diminish [7].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 325 points, a weekly decline of 827 points, marking a 3.02% drop [3][4] - The index opened lower by 530 points, reaching a low of 26,295 points before stabilizing [3] - The total market turnover for the day was 247.865 billion HKD, with a net inflow of 14.859 billion HKD from northbound trading [3] Company News - **Xinda Biopharmaceuticals** entered a strategic partnership with Eli Lilly to advance global research and development of innovative drugs in oncology and immunology, receiving an upfront payment of 350 million USD (approximately 2.73 billion HKD) [12] - **Meitu Inc.** expects adjusted net profit growth of 60% to 66% for the fiscal year ending December 2025, driven by rapid growth in its imaging and design products segment [13] - **Jiaxin International** anticipates a turnaround with a net profit of approximately 300 to 340 million HKD for the year ending last December, compared to a loss of 173 million HKD in the previous year [14] - **Color Star Technology** expects a net loss of 15 million HKD for the year ending last December, a reversal from a net profit of 132 million HKD in 2024, primarily due to a 45% decrease in revenue [15] Economic Indicators - Hong Kong's official foreign exchange reserves increased by 7.7 billion USD to 435.6 billion USD at the end of January, equivalent to over five times the currency in circulation [8] - China's foreign exchange reserves rose for the sixth consecutive month, reaching 3.399 trillion USD, with gold reserves increasing for 15 months [10]

早盘速递 2026/2/9 热点资讯 重点关注 尿素、沪铜、白银、原油、碳酸锂 夜盘表现 板块表现 -6.00 -5.00 -4.00 -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 板块涨跌幅（%） 非金属建材, 2.08% 贵金属, 33.48% 油脂油料, 8.63% 软商品, 2.59% 有色, 25.24% 煤焦钢矿, 10.51% 能源, 2.79% 化工, 10.89% 谷物, 1.01% 农副产品, 2.79% 商 品 各 板 块 资 金 占 比 -10.0% -8.0% -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% -3.00 -2.00 -1.00 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 商品期货主力合约夜盘涨跌幅 涨跌幅 增仓比率（右轴） 第 1 页，共 3 页 板块持仓 (1,400,000) (1,200,000) (1,000,000) (800,000) (600,000) (400,000) (200,000) 0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000 Wind农副产品 W ...

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•美国消费者信心指数微涨 长期通胀预期微升 •日本执政党拿下多数席位 市场将迎更多财政刺激 •印度央行维持基准利率在5.25%不变 转自：新华财经 【资讯导读】 •中国外汇储备连续6个月增长 黄金储备"15连增" •美公布与印度临时贸易协议框架 •多重危机叠加 德国经济自2020年以来损失近万亿欧元 【市场资讯】 •我国外汇储备余额连续第6个月增加，黄金储备连增15个月。数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇 储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%；黄金储备规模为7419万盎 司，环比增加4万盎司。 •美国公布与印度日前达成的临时贸易协议框架，印度取消或降低对美国工业产品以及多种食品和农产 品的关税，美国将把对印度商品加征的所谓"对等关税"税率从25%降至18%。美国总统特朗普还签署行 政令，决定从2月7日起取消基于印度直接或间接进口俄罗斯石油而对印度输美商品征收额外的25%关 税。 •美联储副主席杰斐逊表示，他对美国经济前景"谨慎乐观"，暗示强劲的生产率增长有望帮助通胀回落 至央行2%的目标水平。杰斐逊认为，当前的政策立场能够很好地应对经济发展。 •美国政府官员 ...

● 本报记者 彭扬 国家外汇管理局2月7日发布的数据显示，截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模为33991亿美元，较2025 年12月末上升412亿美元，升幅为1.23%。 国家外汇局表示，2026年1月，受主要经济体财政政策、货币政策及预期等因素影响，美元指数下跌， 全球主要金融资产价格总体上涨。汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用下，当月外汇储备规模上 升。 国家金融与发展实验室特聘高级研究员庞溟表示，展望未来，人民银行推进国际储备多元化、在组合配 置中加入和动态调整黄金储备的战术操作不会改变，持续增持黄金的战略方向也不会改变。 "黄金是全球广泛接受的最终支付手段，人民银行增持黄金能够增强主权货币的信用，为稳慎推进人民 币国际化创造有利条件。从优化国际储备结构，稳慎扎实推进人民币国际化，以及应对当前国际环境变 化等角度来看，人民银行增持黄金仍是大方向。"王青说。 责任编辑：屠欣怡 ● 本报记者 彭扬 "截至2026年1月末，我国外汇储备规模已连续六个月处于3.3万亿美元之上，创2015年12月以来最高。 这背后主要是受2025年以来美元指数大幅下降，全球主要股指上涨，以及美债收益率有所下行、美债价 格走 ...

创元期货分析师余烁表示，碳酸锂价格回调主要受宏观情绪影响。近期部分贵金属及有色金属价格 波动较大，在整体市场情绪影响下，碳酸锂期货价格也呈现较大波动。往后看，今年1月智利锂盐发运 大幅增加，预计节后到达国内，对当前碳酸锂偏紧的供需格局有一定缓解，但2月份碳酸锂总体去库趋 势不改，基本面偏强运行。 南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 李欣彤 周内（2月2日至2月6日），国内期货市场整体呈现弱势运行态势，多数品种以下跌为主。受宏观经 济预期反复、部分品种基本面转弱及国际市场情绪传导等因素影响，市场避险情绪有所升温，尤其是贵 金属板块波动显著加剧。 就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌0.20%、原油上涨0.26%；黑色系板块，焦 煤周下跌1.94%、铁矿石下跌3.95%；基本金属板块，沪锡周下跌2.67%、沪铜下跌1.82%、沪铝下跌 2.85%；贵金属板块，沪金周下跌3.95%、沪银下跌25.56%；农产品板块，鸡蛋周上涨0.34%、生猪下跌 0.42%、豆粕下跌0.74%、棕榈油下跌2.55%。 热点一：持续去库，碳酸锂价格震荡下跌 截至2月6日，碳酸锂期货价格呈现震荡下跌态势，主力合约LC2605报收 ...