Group 1 - Copper prices showed strong performance, with the Shanghai copper main contract closing above 80,000, driven by external market influences [1] - The Caixin PMI data returned above 50, indicating economic expansion, while the deadline for tariff negotiations between multiple countries and the US approaches [1] - The Federal Reserve's Powell expressed caution regarding interest rate cuts, although a potential cut in July remains on the table [1] Group 2 - Antofagasta's mid-year smelting processing fee is at 0 yuan/ton, better than market expectations of negative values, but still the lowest in history, indicating ongoing tight supply expectations [1] - Overall demand remains cautious due to overseas macroeconomic concerns and domestic seasonal factors, despite low inventory levels providing short-term support [1] - LME inventory has stopped declining, and while spot premiums have slightly decreased, they remain high, indicating a need to monitor market sentiment [1] Group 3 - Aluminum prices fluctuated at low levels, with Shanghai aluminum showing strength due to the performance of non-ferrous metals [1] - Despite concerns over future ore supply tightness, stable import ore prices and high inventory levels limit short-term impacts on alumina prices [1] - The overall surplus in the alumina market remains unchanged, with clear downward pressure, but low valuations suggest opportunities for short selling at high prices [1] Group 4 - Nickel prices saw slight gains in the night session, supported by expectations of US interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar [1] - Nickel smelting is experiencing reduced capacity expansion due to losses, but the surplus situation is unlikely to improve in the short term [1] - Seasonal recovery in ore supply is weakening support for nickel ore prices, leading to a range-bound trading pattern for nickel prices [1]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI shows a slight recovery, indicating a stabilization in the manufacturing sector, particularly in the midstream equipment manufacturing industry, which is performing better than other sectors [2][4][8]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - The manufacturing PMI for June is reported at 49.7%, up from 49.5% in the previous month [2][13]. - The production index increased to 51.0%, a rise of 0.3 percentage points from 50.7% [2][13]. - The new orders index rose to 50.2%, compared to 49.8% previously, while the new export orders index slightly improved to 47.7% from 47.5% [2][13]. - The employment index decreased to 47.9%, down from 48.1% [2][13]. - The supplier delivery time index is at 50.2%, showing stability from the previous month's 50.0% [2][13]. - The raw material inventory index increased to 48.0%, up from 47.4% [2][13]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing PMI is the highest among sectors at 51.4%, showing a significant recovery of 1.8 percentage points from April's 49.6% [4][8][9]. - The construction industry business activity index for June is at 52.8%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - The service industry business activity index slightly decreased to 50.1%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. Group 3: Price Trends - The PMI output price index for June is at 46.2%, up from 44.7%, but remains below the neutral line for 13 consecutive months [5][14]. - The construction chain's overall price index decreased by 0.8% in June, indicating continued weakness in market activity [5][12]. - High-energy-consuming industries have a PMI of 47.8%, indicating insufficient market activity [5][12]. Group 4: Expectations and Future Outlook - The manufacturing production activity expectation index is at 52.0%, slightly down from 52.5% [15]. - The construction industry business activity expectation index increased to 53.9%, up from 52.4% [15]. - The service industry business activity expectation index is at 56.0%, down from 56.5% [15].

Group 1: PMI Data Overview - In June, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing PMI, and composite PMI output indices were 49.7%, 50.5%, and 50.7%, respectively, with month-on-month increases of 0.2, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points[2] - The manufacturing PMI has remained below the boom-bust line for three consecutive months, indicating ongoing economic pressure[3] - Non-manufacturing PMI showed resilience, particularly in the construction sector, which saw significant growth driven by residential and construction engineering[3] Group 2: Production and Demand Insights - Production and demand both rebounded, with demand rising above the boom-bust line, and the increase in demand outpacing production[4] - New orders increased by 0.4 percentage points to 50.2, new export orders rose by 0.2 percentage points to 47.7, and existing orders improved by 0.4 percentage points to 45.2[4] - Raw material inventory continued to rise, with the inventory of finished products significantly increasing by 1.6 percentage points to 48.1[5] Group 3: Price and Profitability Trends - Price indices rebounded for the first time since February, with the purchasing price index rising by 1.5 percentage points to 48.4, while the factory price index also increased by 1.5 percentage points to 46.2[5] - Despite the price increases, profit pressures for enterprises have not improved, indicating ongoing challenges in profitability[5] Group 4: Sector Performance - In the manufacturing sector, 6 out of 15 industries (40%) were in a prosperous range, an increase from 4 in May, with notable performance in petroleum processing, chemical fiber, and electrical equipment[6] - In the non-manufacturing sector, 10 out of 19 industries (53%) were in a prosperous range, a decrease from 13 in the previous month, with strong performance in postal services and civil engineering[6]

Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Insights - China's June official manufacturing PMI is 49.7, matching expectations and up from 49.5 in May, indicating a marginal improvement[4] - The production index rose to 51.0, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, signaling recovery in production activities[9] - New orders index increased to 50.2, up 0.4 percentage points, marking a return to the expansion zone after two months below the threshold[9] - The PMI for large enterprises is 51.2, up 0.5 percentage points, while medium-sized enterprises improved to 48.6, up 1.1 percentage points[13] Group 2: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI for June is 50.5, up 0.2 percentage points, indicating continued expansion[19] - The construction activity index rose to 52.8, up 1.8 percentage points, driven by infrastructure investments[25] - The service sector index is at 50.1, slightly down by 0.1 percentage points, reflecting seasonal adjustments in travel-related services[22] Group 3: Price and Demand Dynamics - The raw material purchase price index is at 48.4, and the factory price index is at 46.2, both showing a 1.5 percentage point increase from the previous month[16] - New export orders index is at 47.7, up 0.2 percentage points, while the import index is at 47.8, up 0.7 percentage points, indicating a slight recovery in external demand[9]

Group 1: US Dollar - Trump calls for the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by at least 2 to 3 percentage points [1] - Fed officials Bowman and Goolsbee suggest support for a rate cut in July if inflation pressures are controlled [1] Group 2: Eurozone - Germany's June manufacturing PMI reaches a 34-month high, while services and composite PMIs hit 3-month highs [1] - France's June manufacturing PMI hits a 4-month low, with services and composite PMIs at 2-month lows [1] - The German Industrial Association forecasts a 0.3% contraction in the German economy by 2025, revised from a previous forecast of a 0.1% contraction [1] - European Central Bank officials express potential for rate cuts despite oil market volatility, with Lagarde noting a generally weak economic outlook [1][1][1] Group 3: Japanese Yen - Capital Economics indicates that Japan's PMI supports the Bank of Japan's potential rate hike in October [1] - Japanese Finance Ministry officials show majority support for the revised bond issuance plan [1] - Japanese Prime Minister Kishida aims to increase Japan's GDP from 400 trillion yen to 1,000 trillion yen by 2040, targeting a real wage growth rate of 1% or more [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report The report provides market analysis and trading strategies for various commodities including basic metals, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It evaluates the market performance, fundamentals, and offers corresponding trading suggestions for each commodity based on supply - demand dynamics, macro - economic factors, and industry - specific events. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Basic Metals Copper - Market performance: Copper prices oscillated strongly yesterday [1]. - Fundamentals: Trump announced a cease - fire between Israel and Iran, causing a sharp drop in crude oil prices. US PMI data exceeded expectations while European PMI data was weak. The supply of copper ore remained tight, and Glencore stated that the mountain ISA smelter was difficult to continue operating. Demand showed some resilience, with premiums for flat - water copper in East and South China at 70 yuan and 20 yuan respectively, and the London structure at a 392 - dollar back [1]. - Trading strategy: Maintain the idea of buying on dips [1]. Aluminum - Market performance: The closing price of the electrolytic aluminum 2508 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 20,365 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 435 yuan/ton, and the LME price was 2,559 dollars/ton [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity increased slightly. On the demand side, the operating rate of aluminum products decreased slightly [1]. - Trading strategy: LME has forced traders holding near - month contract positions exceeding available inventory to reduce their positions to limit spot liquidity risk. Aluminum ingots have seen inventory accumulation (15,000 tons) for the first time since June. It is necessary to observe whether the inventory accumulation is continuous, and aluminum prices may come under pressure to decline. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. Alumina - Market performance: The closing price of the alumina 2509 contract showed no significant change from the previous trading day, closing at 2,906 yuan/ton. The domestic 0 - 3 month spread was 288 yuan/ton. On June 20, India had a transaction of 30,000 tons at a price of 366 dollars/ton (the previous transaction was also at 366 dollars/ton) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, new production capacity continued to be released, and the operating capacity increased. On the demand side, electrolytic aluminum plants maintained high - load production, and the operating capacity was stable [1]. - Trading strategy: The alumina futures price encountered resistance when rising. In the medium term, the pressure of production capacity release and inventory accumulation persists, and the price may continue to operate at a low level [1]. Industrial Silicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 09 contract closed at 7,420 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position decreased by 2,437 lots to 303,119 lots. Today, the warehouse receipt volume decreased by 439 lots to 54,184 lots [1]. - Fundamentals: Last week, spot prices stopped falling. On the supply side, there was no significant contraction, and the number of open furnaces increased by 5. Weekly inventory decreased slightly for two consecutive weeks, and after the market decline, the visible inventory of warehouse receipts turned into invisible inventory. On the demand side, the production of polysilicon in June may increase slightly compared to May, and there are plans for复产 this week. The production of organic silicon was relatively stable, and the decline in industrial chain prices widened. The downstream demand for aluminum alloys entered the off - season, and the operating rate was relatively stable [1]. - Trading strategy: If the futures price continues to rise, it may face hedging pressure, and the rebound of the market may be limited. Before there is an effective reduction in actual supply during the flood season, maintain a bearish view. It is expected that the market will oscillate at a low level. Consider shorting lightly after a rebound. Pay attention to the on - site sentiment at the Leshan industry conference [1]. Polysilicon - Market performance: On Monday, the market opened low and then oscillated. The main 08 contract closed at 30,615 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The position increased by 10,054 lots to 78,183 lots. The 11 contract closed at 30,030 yuan/ton. Today, the warehouse receipt volume remained unchanged at 2,600 lots (7,800 tons) [1]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the weekly production changed little, and the industry inventory decreased slightly. There are still expectations of复产 in the future, and the market is pessimistic about the joint production cuts by leading enterprises. On the demand side, the silicon wafer production schedule data has recovered, which is related to the production scheduling of some enterprises' previous orders in the third quarter due to limited quotas. The expected production schedule for the third quarter is still declining quarter - on - quarter. According to the balance sheet, inventory will start to accumulate in July [1]. - Trading strategy: The industry's复产 plan exceeded expectations. In the short term, it is recommended to go short on the 07 contract on rallies. Pay attention to the industry's production cut plan [2]. Agricultural Products Soybean Meal - Market performance: Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined, affected by favorable weather in the production area and the sharp drop in crude oil prices [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the supply from South America was abundant in the near term, and the growth of US soybeans was normal in the long term. On the demand side, South America was the main influence in the short term, US soybean exports were seasonally weak, but the US biodiesel policy was beneficial to the demand for soybean crushing [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, US soybeans will oscillate strongly; in China, although there will be a large arrival of soybeans later, demand will also remain high. The domestic market will follow the international cost side [2]. Corn - Market performance: The corn 2509 contract corrected, and the spot price of corn declined slightly [2]. - Fundamentals: This year, the supply - demand situation has tightened marginally, and the grain rights have shifted to channels, increasing the bargaining power of channels. The expected import volume of substitutes will decrease significantly, which is beneficial to the demand for domestic corn. The wheat support - price purchase has boosted the wheat price, which will also drive up the corn price. The spot price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. - Trading strategy: With the reduction of remaining grain and the wheat support - price purchase, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Palm Oil - Market performance: Malaysian palm oil rose yesterday [2]. - Fundamentals: On the supply side, the production area is in the seasonal production - increasing period, and Malaysia's production in May increased by 5% month - on - month. On the demand side, the exports from the production area improved month - on - month. ITS showed that exports，from June 1 - 20 increased by 14% month - on - month [2]. - Trading strategy: In the short term, the volatility of palm oil will increase, affected by the large fluctuations in crude oil and other factors. The trading difficulty has increased. Pay attention to crude oil and biodiesel policies [2]. Eggs - Market performance: The egg 2508 contract performed strongly, and the spot price was stable [2]. - Fundamentals: Due to breeding losses, the culling of old hens is expected to decrease temporarily. Supply remains high, and the hot and humid weather is not conducive to egg storage, but low prices stimulate demand. With strong supply and weak demand and cost support, the futures and spot prices are expected to oscillate [2]. - Trading strategy: With sufficient supply and cost support, the futures price is expected to oscillate [2]. Pigs - Market performance: The pig 2509 contract performed strongly, and the spot price of pigs rose [2]. - Fundamentals: Large - scale farms have been continuously reducing the weight of pigs recently, and the pressure to sell at the end of the month has decreased. Small - scale farmers, on the contrary, continue to hold back pigs to gain weight. At the end of the month, the supply from the breeding side will decrease, and the entry of second - fattening will support the price. The pig price is expected to be strong in the short term. In the medium term, the supply will continue to increase, and the center of the pig price will gradually decline. Pay attention to the slaughter rhythm of enterprises and the trend of second - fattening [2]. - Trading strategy: With reduced supply at the end of the month, the futures price is expected to oscillate strongly [2]. Energy Chemicals PVC - Market performance: The V09 contract closed at 4,897, down 0.3% [3]. - Fundamentals: PVC was driven up by the rise in crude oil prices and then retreated. On the supply side, the plants of Wanhua, Bohua, etc. are gradually being put into production, and the supply growth rate is expected to reach about 5%. The upstream operating rate is 80%, and maintenance has gradually ended. Social inventory has been continuously decreasing. On June 19, the new sample of PVC social inventory was 569,300 tons, a decrease of 0.74% month - on - month and 37.97% year - on - year. India has postponed the BIS anti - dumping investigation until December, which is beneficial to exports. The carbide price is 2,400 yuan, and it is expected to decline in the future. The spot price has stopped rising, with 4,800 yuan in East China and 4,870 yuan in Inner Mongolia [4]. - Trading strategy: It is recommended to gradually close short positions and wait and see. Since there is no driving force for a rebound, consider selling call options above 4,950 [4]. PTA - Market performance: The CFR China price of PX is 899 dollars/ton, equivalent to 7,430 yuan/ton in RMB at the current exchange rate. The spot price of PTA in East China is 5,260 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 264 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: On the cost side of PX, domestic production still has maintenance plans for plants such as Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shandong Weilian, and the load increase is limited. Overseas, a 400,000 - ton plant of South Korea's GS has restarted, a 500,000 - ton plant of Japan's Eneos has unexpectedly shut down, plants in Iran and Israel have shut down, the restart of a Saudi plant has been postponed, and Vietnam's NSRP has reduced production. It is expected that imports will remain at a low level. For PTA, Hengli Dalian and Fuhai Chuang are implementing maintenance plans, Yisheng New Materials has briefly reduced production, and Jiaxing Petrochemical's 1.5 - million - ton plant has restarted. Overall, the supply has decreased, but the medium - and long - term supply pressure remains large. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. After the peripheral factors drove the market last Friday, there was concentrated replenishment at the terminal; since the weekend, downstream enterprises have mainly been digesting their stocks, with only rigid demand following up. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, both PX and PTA are in a de - stocking pattern [4]. - Trading strategy: Continue to hold long positions in PX. PTA has tight short - term liquidity but large medium - and long - term surplus pressure. Maintain the view of shorting the processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass - Market performance: The FG09 contract closed at 1,007, up 0.1% [4]. - Fundamentals: The glass trading volume has been mixed, and the average price has been stable. Downstream demand is gradually improving. On the supply side, 4 production lines will resume production in July, and the supply growth rate is expected to increase by 1.2% month - on - month. The daily melting volume of glass is 156,000 tons, a decrease of 8.8% year - on - year. Inventory has unexpectedly accumulated. On June 19, the upstream inventory was 69,887,000 heavy boxes, an increase of 0.29% month - on - month and 16.82% year - on - year. The order days of downstream deep - processing enterprises are 9.8 days, the operating rate is about 48%, which is lower than in previous years. In terms of valuation, losses have increased, with a large loss of 195 yuan for the natural - gas route, a profit of about 85 yuan for the coal - gas route, and a loss of 105 yuan for the petroleum - coke route. The spot prices are 1,120 yuan in North China, 1,020 yuan in Central China, 1,230 yuan in East China, and 1,280 yuan in South China [4]. - Trading strategy: The downward trend of glass prices is hard to reverse. It is recommended to sell call options above 1,250 [4]. MEG - Market performance: The spot price of MEG in East China is 4,597 yuan/ton, and the spot basis is 78 yuan/ton [4]. - Fundamentals: Plants are restarting in a concentrated manner, increasing the supply. Pay attention to the implementation of Zhejiang Petrochemical's maintenance plan at the end of the month. Overseas, plants in Canada, Saudi Arabia, and Malaysia have restarted, increasing the import supply. The inventory at East China ports is around 620,000 tons, at a historically low level. The polyester load remains around 92%, the comprehensive inventory is at a medium - level in history, and the profit of polyester products has been greatly compressed. Continuously pay attention to the implementation of production cuts. The load of downstream texturing and weaving machines has decreased overall and is at a medium - level in history. As of now, the downstream raw material inventory is mainly 10 - 15 days, with sporadic high - inventory reaching about 1 month. Overall, the supply - demand situation of MEG has weakened [4]. - Trading strategy: With the easing of the geopolitical situation, it is recommended to take short positions [4]. Soda Ash - Market performance: The SA09 contract closed at 1,173, down 0.3% [4]. - Fundamentals: The supply - demand of soda ash is in a weak balance, and the supply is gradually recovering. On the supply side, the Lianyungang Soda plant has reached full production, and the upstream operating rate of soda ash is 86%. Summer maintenance has gradually ended, and Qinghai Fatou Soda and Xuzhou Fengcheng Soda have maintenance plans this month. Inventory has accumulated at a high level. On June 23, the upstream inventory was 1.7559 million tons, an increase of 29,200 tons from last Thursday, a rise of 1.69%. The number of days of pending orders for upstream manufacturers is 11 days. The inventory at delivery warehouses is 311,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons month - on - month. On the downstream demand side, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,000 tons, the inventory days are 30.5 days, and the photovoltaic glass production line of China National Building Materials Yixing has blocked the kiln mouth. The soda ash price has changed little, with the delivered price around 1,250 yuan, the futures - spot quotation in Shahe at 09 contract + 20, and the factory - pickup price in Inner Mongolia at 09 contract - 160 [4][5]. - Trading strategy: The supply - demand of soda ash is weak on both sides, and it will oscillate at the bottom. Consider selling out - of - the - money call options above 1,400 for soda ash options [5].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the UK is experiencing a mild expansion in business activity, with new orders increasing for the first time this year, despite rising layoffs and concerns over geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1] - The S&P Global UK Composite PMI rose from 50.3 in May to 50.7 in June, slightly above the growth threshold of 50.0, suggesting a modest economic expansion [1] - The service sector, which dominates the UK economy, recorded its fastest growth in three months, while factory activity has contracted for the ninth consecutive month, although the decline is the smallest since January [1] Group 2 - The report aligns with an estimated economic growth rate of approximately 0.1% for the period from April to June, consistent with the Bank of England's assessment of the current pace of economic expansion [1] - However, the June Composite PMI showed deterioration in employment, new export business, and future output indices, influenced by rising global economic and political uncertainties [1]

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Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The Trump administration's plan to double steel and aluminum import tariffs and initiate a Section 232 investigation on copper imports has led to strong expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic output is expanding, with the May manufacturing PMI up 0.5 percentage points and the composite PMI output index up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month. The supply side is expected to remain tight, but the actual supply of refined copper has not decreased. The domestic PMI data is positive, and the demand during the off - season is resilient, which supports copper prices. The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange has continued to decline since the end of May, indicating downstream demand. If the copper tariff policy becomes clearer, it may lead to expectations of supply shortages and benefit copper prices. Currently, copper is still in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to subsequent tariff policies and downstream demand resilience [1]. Group 3: Summary by Directory Strategy Analysis - The Shanghai copper market opened high and closed slightly lower. The Trump administration's actions on tariffs have raised expectations of copper tariff policies. China's economic indicators show expansion. The supply of copper is expected to be tight, but actual supply remains stable. The domestic PMI data is good, and off - season demand is resilient, supporting copper prices. The inventory decline in the Shanghai Futures Exchange reflects downstream demand. Uncertainty in tariff policies and the economy persists. If copper tariff policies become clear, it may boost copper prices. Currently, copper is in a volatile range, and attention should be paid to tariff policies and downstream demand [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Opened high, fluctuated, and closed lower at 77,650. The long positions of the top 20 increased by 6,123 to 119,553 hands, and the short positions increased by 6,221 to 126,122 hands. Spot: The spot premium in East China was 185 yuan/ton, while in South China it was - 60 yuan/ton. On June 2, 2025, the LME official price was 9,600 US dollars/ton, with a spot premium of 55 US dollars/ton [4]. Supply Side - As of May 30, the spot smelting fee (TC) was - 43.45 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 4.34 cents/pound [6]. Fundamental Tracking - Inventory: SHFE copper inventory was 31,400 tons, a decrease of 2,724 tons from the previous period. As of May 29, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Free Trade Zone was 52,000 tons, a decrease of 1,900 tons from the previous period. LME copper inventory was 143,900 tons, a slight decrease of 4,600 tons from the previous period. COMEX copper inventory was 182,600 short tons, an increase of 1,997 short tons from the previous period [9].

显微镜下的中国经济（2025 年第 20 期） 频率：每周 目前看，5 月供给形势可能仍较为稳定，需求方面出口和消费相对较好，房地 产投资继续拖累投资整体形势。 定期报告 相关报告 1、《央国企动态系列报告之 40 ——并购重组新规出台，央企 上市公司加速新兴产业布局和 "两非""两资"资产剥离》 2025-06-03 2、《美国国内政治加剧对外政 策动荡———国际时政周评》 2025-06-02 3、《PPI 或进一步下探——宏 观与大类资产周报》2025-06-02 张一平 S1090513080007 zhangyiping@cmschina.com.cn 张静静 S1090522050003 zhangjingjing@cmschina.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 06 月 03 日 如何看待 5 月宏观经济形势 正文目录 | 1、开工率 | | --- | | 2、产能利用率…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………… ...