1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. However, policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and technology and growth are still the main market trends. Index investment should focus on buying on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. - In the fourth quarter, the bond market supply - demand pattern may improve, but it will maintain a volatile trend under the background of weak domestic demand recovery and improved inflation expectations. Attention should be paid to the impact of stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex. Some are expected to strengthen due to factors such as supply disturbances and cost support, while others may face pressure due to factors such as over - supply and weak demand. It is necessary to pay attention to macro - events and industry fundamentals [41][42] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro - financial Category 3.1.1 Stock Index - **Market Information**: In November, the manufacturing PMI was 49.2%, and the non - manufacturing business activity index was 49.5%. The National Space Administration established the Commercial Space Department. The central bank continued to ban virtual currencies. Metal prices soared on Friday, with silver and copper hitting record highs [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market rotation has accelerated, and the risk appetite has decreased. The policy support for the capital market remains unchanged, and the index should be bought on dips in the medium - to - long - term [4]. 3.1.2 Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Friday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different changes. In November, the manufacturing PMI improved, and the non - manufacturing business activity index declined. Japan revised its bond issuance plan. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation on Friday, with a net withdrawal of funds [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: In November, the manufacturing PMI data showed an overall improvement in manufacturing sentiment, but the service industry was weak. The social financing growth rate may remain weak at the end of the year. The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend in the fourth quarter, and attention should be paid to stock - bond linkage and liquidity [7]. 3.1.3 Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold and silver futures rose. COMEX gold and silver also had certain prices. Silver has entered the accelerated peak - hitting stage, and its technical trend conforms to the characteristics of previous second - stage rises. The current overseas position and inventory levels are not in a state of "delivery difficulties" [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The silver price is in an accelerated rise, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of 14,500 yuan/kg. If the price weakens during the day, profits should be taken in time. It is risky to open new long positions or short at high prices. Shanghai gold is at the end of a triangular convergence breakthrough pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. 3.2 Non - ferrous Metals Category 3.2.1 Copper - **Market Information**: Concerns about smelting production cuts led copper prices to break through historical highs. LME copper inventory increased, and domestic futures exchange inventory decreased. The domestic spot import was at a loss, and the refined - scrap price difference widened [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Geopolitical factors still exist, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest rate meeting. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the expectation of smelting production cuts drives copper prices to rise. The downstream operating rate is stable and strong, so copper prices are expected to continue to strengthen [12]. 3.2.2 Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rebounded on Friday. The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots continued to decline. The aluminum rod processing fee continued to decline, and the trading was average [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The inventory of domestic and LME aluminum ingots is at a relatively low level. Coupled with supply disturbances, stable downstream operating rates, and rising copper prices, the center of gravity of aluminum prices is expected to rise further [14]. 3.2.3 Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The LME zinc price fell. The domestic social zinc inventory decreased slightly, but the total inventory increased after considering the in - transit and factory inventories. The zinc import was at a loss [15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of zinc ore has increased, but the zinc concentrate TC has continued to decline, and the zinc smelting profit is under pressure. The downstream operating rate has declined marginally. The current situation of the zinc industry is not in resonance with the strong macro - sentiment, so zinc prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [16]. 3.2.4 Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. The LME lead price also rose. The domestic social lead inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap price difference was at par [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The visible inventory of lead ore has increased, the primary smelting operating rate has declined, and the secondary smelting operating rate has continued to rise. The downstream battery enterprise operating rate has increased marginally, and the visible inventory of domestic lead ingots has decreased. In the Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals industry is relatively positive, so lead prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [17]. 3.2.5 Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices fluctuated narrowly on Friday. The spot price premiums of different brands were stable, and the nickel ore price was stable, while the nickel iron price continued to decline [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The oversupply pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel iron prices and the warming of the macro - atmosphere, nickel prices may turn to a volatile trend in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the trends of nickel iron and ore prices [19]. 3.2.6 Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. The inventory of the futures exchange increased, and the LME tin inventory also increased. The supply of tin concentrate has been slightly relieved, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) has affected transportation. The demand in traditional fields is weak, but emerging fields provide long - term support. The social inventory has decreased [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the demand in the tin market is weak in the short - term, the supply disturbance is the decisive factor for short - term prices. Therefore, tin prices are likely to fluctuate strongly. It is recommended to wait and see [22]. 3.2.7 Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The spot price of lithium carbonate decreased, while the futures price increased. The price of Australian lithium concentrate increased [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The improvement of fundamentals boosts the bullish sentiment, but there are differences in future demand expectations. The change of the mining permit of Jiaxiawo Mine is a short - term positive for the spot but a long - term negative for supply. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the cell production schedule in the first quarter and the atmosphere of the equity market [23]. 3.2.8 Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index rose. The domestic spot price was at a premium to the futures. The overseas price fell, and the import window was opened. The futures inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas ore shipment will gradually recover, and the alumina smelting capacity is in an over - supply situation. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts has increased. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [26]. 3.2.9 Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract price fell. The spot prices in different markets were stable or decreased. The raw material prices were stable, and the futures and social inventories decreased [27]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The steel mill production is at a high level, the demand has improved marginally, but the cost pressure has squeezed the profit, and the inventory pressure is still significant. The market lacks a clear upward momentum, so stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [27]. 3.2.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy rebounded. The trading volume decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [28]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and there are policy disturbances on the supply side. The demand is relatively average, so the price is expected to follow the trend of aluminum prices in the short - term [29]. 3.3 Black Building Materials Category 3.3.1 Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The spot prices in different regions were stable or increased [31]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The commodity market adjusted on Friday, and the prices of steel products fluctuated. The supply and demand of rebar decreased, and the inventory continued to decline. The output of hot - rolled coil increased, and the inventory decreased slightly. The anti - dumping tax imposed by South Korea on Chinese steel will affect exports. The demand for steel has entered the off - season, so attention should be paid to the actual progress of production cuts and important meetings [32]. 3.3.2 Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The iron ore main contract price fell. The spot price was at a premium to the futures, and the port inventory increased [33]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The overseas iron ore shipment decreased, the demand weakened, the number of blast furnace overhauls increased, and the steel mill profitability was at a low level. The overall inventory of iron ore is still high, but there are structural contradictions, and the spot has certain support. Iron ore prices are expected to operate within an oscillatory range [34]. 3.3.3 Glass and Soda Ash - **Market Information**: The glass main contract price rose, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions decreased. The soda ash main contract price rose slightly, the inventory decreased, and the trading volume of long and short positions also decreased [36][38]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: For glass, the supply has shrunk, the market sentiment has improved briefly, but the overall trading is still light, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to try shorting at high prices. For soda ash, the industry operating rate has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased slightly, the price is stable, but it is still recommended to be bearish in the short - term [37][38]. 3.3.4 Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The manganese silicon main contract price fell slightly, and the ferrosilicon main contract price was flat. The prices of the two in the spot market were stable, and the spot was at a premium to the futures [39]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market sentiment has improved. The black - building materials sector is still in a weak state, but there is no need to be overly pessimistic. For manganese silicon, the fundamentals are not ideal, and there are no major contradictions. For ferrosilicon, the supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious contradictions, and the operability is low [41][42]. 3.3.5 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The industrial silicon futures main contract price rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the trading volume decreased [43]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The short - term trading volume of industrial silicon has decreased, and the trend has become dull. The production has continued to decline, the demand from the polysilicon sector has weakened, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price is easily affected by the sentiment of other new - energy varieties [44]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The polysilicon futures main contract price rose. The spot prices of different types were stable, and the futures was at a premium to the spot [45][46]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The production of polysilicon is expected to decline in December, the downstream silicon wafer production is expected to decrease, and the inventory pressure is difficult to relieve. The spot price is stable, and there are risks in the near - month contract due to delivery games. Attention should be paid to the final implementation of the platform company [47]. 3.4 Energy and Chemicals Category 3.4.1 Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price rebounded. The flood in the Thai rubber - producing area receded, and the exchange inventory was low. The tire factory operating rate was weak, and the inventory increased [49][50]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to adopt a neutral strategy, wait and see, or conduct short - term trading. A partial position can be established for the hedging strategy of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [52]. 3.4.2 Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE crude oil futures price rose, and the prices of related refined oil products also rose. The gasoline and diesel inventories in Singapore decreased, while the fuel oil inventory increased [53]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared, the OPEC supply has not increased significantly. It is not advisable to be overly bearish on oil prices in the short - term. A range - trading strategy is maintained, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [54]. 3.4.3 Methanol - **Market Information**: The methanol spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread increased [55]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The potential positive factors of Iranian plant shutdowns have been realized, the market has stopped falling and stabilized, and the market expectation has changed. The supply is expected to remain high, and the market is expected to turn to an oscillatory adjustment after the positive factors are realized. It is recommended to wait and see on a single - side trading and pay attention to the positive spread arbitrage opportunity [55]. 3.4.4 Urea - **Market Information**: The urea spot and futures prices rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative [56]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The urea price is expected to gradually emerge from the bottom range. The supply is at a relatively high level, the demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. The price has support from export policies and costs, so it is recommended to consider buying at low prices [57]. 3.4.5 Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The pure benzene spot and futures prices were stable, the basis decreased. The styrene spot price fell, the futures price rose, and the basis weakened [58]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is neutral to low, and the valuation has a large upward - repair space. The supply of pure benzene is still wide, the styrene operating rate is rising, and the inventory is accumulating. When the inventory reversal point occurs, the non - integrated profit of styrene can be long [59]. 3.4.6 PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The production cost increased, the operating rate increased, and the inventory increased [60]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The enterprise profit is at a low level, the supply is high, the demand is weak, and the export cannot digest the excess capacity. It is recommended to short at high prices in the medium - term [61][62]. 3.4.7 Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The ethylene glycol futures price rose, the spot price fell, the basis decreased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased. The supply load increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the port inventory was stable [63]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The domestic supply is expected to decrease in December, the import volume will decrease slightly, and the port inventory accumulation may slow down. In the medium - term, the supply - demand pattern is still weak, and it is recommended to short at high prices [64]. 3.4.8 PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 5 spread was negative. The PTA operating rate increased, the downstream load increased slightly, and the inventory decreased [65]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The unexpected maintenance of PTA is expected to decrease. The downstream polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the bottle - chip load is difficult to increase. The PTA processing fee has limited upward space, and the PX has a risk of a slight valuation correction [66]. 3.4.9 p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The p - xylene futures price rose, the spot price rose, the basis was negative, and the 1 - 3 spread was negative. The p - xylene operating rate decreased, the downstream PTA operating rate increased, the import volume increased, and the inventory increased [67]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The p - xylene load is high, the downstream PTA operating rate is low, and the PX inventory is expected to accumulate slightly in November. The valuation is at a neutral level, and there is a risk of a slight valuation correction [68]. 3.4.10 Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The PE futures price rose, the spot price was stable, the basis weakened, the upstream operating rate decreased slightly, the inventory decreased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [69]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth may support oil prices. The PE valuation has limited downward space, but the high number of warehouse receipts suppresses the price. The supply is limited, the inventory is decreasing, and it is recommended to short the LL1 - 5 spread at high prices

Group 1: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The manufacturing PMI index for November is 49.2%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a minor recovery within the contraction zone[3] - The new orders index for November is also at 49.2%, up 0.4 percentage points, with the new export orders index rising 1.7 percentage points to 47.6%, likely boosted by the upcoming holiday season[3] - The production index stands at 50.0%, reflecting a 0.3 percentage point increase, while the raw material inventory index is at 47.3%, unchanged from the previous month[3] Group 2: Investment and Demand Trends - Fixed asset investment projects, particularly in infrastructure and affordable housing, are expected to gain momentum towards the end of the year[1] - The major raw material purchase price index increased by 1.1 percentage points to 53.6%, indicating a high level of purchasing activity[9] - Demand in the raw materials and equipment manufacturing sectors shows signs of recovery, with the new orders index for non-metallic mineral products significantly above the threshold[10] Group 3: Non-Manufacturing Sector Performance - The non-manufacturing PMI index for November is 49.5%, down 0.6 percentage points, indicating a decline in business activity[4] - The new orders index for the non-manufacturing sector is at 45.7%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points, while the new export orders index has improved to 47.9%, up 1.7 percentage points[12] - The construction sector's PMI is at 49.6%, with a new orders index of 46.1%, reflecting a slight recovery in demand despite remaining in contraction territory[16]

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 戴琨 资格编号：S0120525070002 邮箱：daikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 弱势回升显现，景气修复仍待巩固 ——11 月 PMI 数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 2025 年 11 月 30 日 核心观点：11 月 PMI 显示经济景气延续弱势，制造业虽小幅回升但仍处收缩区间， 服务业明显走弱，整体修复态势偏弱。制造业 PMI 回升至 49.2%，但仍弱于往年 同期水平，我们认为这既反映了"十一"假期后的季节性修复有限、前期"以旧换 新"对订单的拉动效应边际减退，也与全球需求仍偏低迷有关。分项指标上，生产 与新订单虽小幅改善但仍低于荣枯线，企业继续主动去库、用工偏谨慎，显示制造 业内生复苏动能依旧不足。非制造业 PMI 回落至 49.5%，重回荣枯线下，叠加假 期效应消退，服务业动能减弱、建筑业虽有回升但仍偏弱，新订单与库存指标均指 向需求 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - In the fourth week of November 2025, industrial production continued to decline, accelerating the destocking of some investment products. Combined with the increase in upstream costs, the apparent volume and price improved, but the sustainability of price increases needs to be verified by subsequent demand [3][36] - In terms of inflation, the monthly average of pork prices continued to decline, while vegetable prices rebounded from a decline with a relatively large overall monthly increase. Food prices in November may have accelerated their month - on - month increase [3][36] - For the bond market in December, there are few highlights in the off - season data of the fundamentals. The focus is on the tone of the Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference. The PMI in November is expected to rise slightly seasonally but may still be below the boom - bust line [3][37] Summary by Directory Inflation - related - Food prices stopped falling and rebounded. From November 23rd to 28th, the average wholesale price of pork in China decreased by 0.26% month - on - month with a narrowing decline, and vegetable prices increased by 1.23% month - on - month. The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices and the wholesale price index of basket products increased by 0.48% and 0.55% respectively [9] Import and Export - related - The CCFI index weakened slightly, and the SCFI stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the CCFI index decreased by 0.1% month - on - month, and the SCFI increased by 0.7% month - on - month. The North American route supply - demand relationship was balanced, with the freight rate on the West Coast route falling by 0.8% and that on the East Coast route rising by 1.8% [12] - From November 17th to 23rd, the container throughput and cargo throughput at ports increased by 5.4% and decreased by 0.6% month - on - month respectively, and increased by 12.8% and 0.7% year - on - year respectively last week. As of this week, the monthly average year - on - year increase was 10% and 4.4% respectively, better than in October [12] - The BDI and CDFI indices continued to rise. This week, the demand for coal shipping increased, and the North American grain cargo supported the market. The available shipping capacity was tight, pushing up the freight rates [12] Industry - related - Coal prices changed from rising to falling. This week, the price of thermal coal (Q5500) at Qinhuangdao Port decreased by 1.44% month - on - month. The terminal enterprises mainly purchased long - term contract coal, and the acceptance of high - price market coal was low. The increase in origin coal prices made imported coal more advantageous, leading to a decline in port coal prices [18] - The increase in rebar prices narrowed. The spot price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) increased by 0.6% month - on - month. Terminal demand further declined, and the inventory of steel mills decreased faster [18] - The asphalt operating rate rebounded slightly. This week, the asphalt plant operating rate increased by 3.0 percentage points month - on - month to 27.8%, remaining at a low level [18] - Copper prices stopped falling and rebounded. This week, the average prices of Yangtze River non - ferrous copper and LME copper increased by 0.8% and 1.3% month - on - month respectively. The rising probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in December and the tight supply supported the high - level shock of copper prices [23] - The glass futures price stopped falling and rebounded. The spot transaction price center of glass moved down, the trading situation improved, and the market inventory decreased slightly, but the overall fundamental demand was still weak, and the glass price was expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [23] Investment - related - The decline in cement prices narrowed. This week, the weekly average of the cement price index decreased by 0.06% month - on - month, with a narrower decline than the previous week. The increase in raw material costs and stable market demand strengthened the price - increasing willingness of cement enterprises [27] - New home sales continued to rise month - on - month. From November 21st to 27th, the transaction area of new homes in 30 cities was 2.127 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 9.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 32.6%, indicating a brewing end - of - month sprint but with a slightly lower intensity than the same period [28] - Second - hand home sales continued to decline. From last Friday to this Thursday, second - hand home sales decreased by 0.5% month - on - month and 15.2% year - on - year. Affected by the high base effect after the "924" policy last year, the year - on - year decline in November may remain around - 15%, similar to that in October [28] Consumption - related - From November 1st to 23rd, passenger car retail sales decreased year - on - year. The high - base effect after the "old - for - new" policy last year had a large impact on the year - on - year reading, but there was still a positive growth of about 14% compared with the same period in 2023 [30] - Crude oil prices increased slightly. As of November 28th, Brent crude oil and WTI crude oil prices increased by 1.0% and 0.8% month - on - month respectively. The increasing expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut and the weakening expectation of OPEC+ production increase boosted oil prices [30]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests paying attention to the central bank's policy stance, maintaining the view that there is still room for growth in the medium term, and advises to continue holding medium - term long positions [1][3]. 3. Summary by Related Sections 3.1. Disk Review - On Monday, bond futures rose in the morning session and fluctuated in the afternoon, with all varieties closing higher. The funding situation was loose, with DR001 around 1.32% on Friday. There were 338.7 billion yuan in open - market reverse repurchases and a 200 - billion - yuan treasury cash fixed - deposit tender, resulting in a net injection of 255.7 billion yuan [1]. 3.2. Important News - Five out of the 12 Fed officials with voting rights this year have indicated a preference to keep interest rates unchanged next month [2]. - Trump advisor Hassett said that the new Fed leadership may cut interest rates and that the appointment of the Fed chair may be decided around the new year [2]. - Japan announced the deployment of missiles in a sensitive area, only 110 kilometers from Taiwan, China [2]. 3.3. Market Outlook - The A - share market rebounded on low volume today, hardly affecting the bond market. Geopolitical tensions seem to have intensified, but it is not the main influencing factor for the bond market at present. There is no obvious short - term market driver. This week, attention should be paid to whether MLF roll - overs and PMI data will provide trading impetus [3]. 3.4. Daily Treasury Futures Data | Contract | 2025 - 11 - 24 | 2025 - 11 - 21 | Today's Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2512 | 102.416 | 102.448 | - 0.032 | | TF2512 | 105.885 | 105.855 | 0.03 | | T2512 | 108.47 | 108.44 | 0.03 | | TL2512 | 115.72 | 115.59 | 0.13 | | TS Basis (CTD) | 0.0034 | - 0.0063 | 0.0097 | | TF Basis (CTD) | 0.02 | 0.0033 | 0.0167 | | T Basis (CTD) | 0.0793 | 0.0802 | - 0.0009 | | TL Basis (CTD) | 0.1394 | 0.1601 | - 0.0207 | | TS Contract Position (Lots) | 71,468 | 73,816 | - 2,348 | | TF Contract Position (Lots) | 160,107 | 153,244 | 6,863 | | T Contract Position (Lots) | 284,471 | 279,585 | 4,886 | | TL Contract Position (Lots) | 175,392 | 176,275 | - 883 | | TS Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 35,982 | 29,272 | 6,710 | | TF Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 46,495 | 64,448 | - 17,953 | | T Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 79,246 | 103,001 | - 23,755 | | TL Main Contract Trading Volume (Lots) | 64,907 | 97,822 | - 32,915 | [4]

以下是各大品牌金店详细报价： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年11月24日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 10 | 跌 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 0 | 11 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 0 | 가 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1259 | 元/克 | 7 | 跌 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 0 | ने | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 10 | 跌 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/克 | 0 | ਸੇ | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1293 | 元/克 | 3 | 跌 | | 菜百黄金价格 | 1270 | 元/克 | 0 | म | | 上海中国黄金价格 | 1222 | 元/克 | 0 | ग | | 周大生黄金价格 | 1295 | 元/ 克 | 0 | 27 | 今日金店黄金价格持稳转跌，铂金价格稍有上涨，就拿周大生黄 ...

11月21日，美国三大股指全线收涨，道琼斯工业指数涨1.08%报46245.41点，标普500指数涨0.98%报6602.99点，纳斯达克指数涨0.88%报 22273.08点。本周，道琼斯工业指数跌1.91%，标普500指数跌1.95%，纳斯达克指数跌2.74%。 | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 道琼斯工业平均 | 46245.41 | 493.15 | 1.08% | 8.70% | | 纳斯达克指数 | 22273.08 | 195.03 | 0.88% | 15.34% | | 标普500 | 6602.99 | 64.23 | 0.98% | 12.26% | 欧洲三大股指收盘涨跌不一，德国DAX指数跌0.8%报23091.87点，法国CAC40指数涨0.02%报7982.65点，英国富时100指数涨0.13%报9539.71点。本周，德国DAX指 数跌3.29%，法国CAC40指数跌2.29%，英国富时100指数跌1.64%。 纽约联邦储备银行行长约翰・威廉姆斯周五在智利圣地亚哥发表演讲时，在演讲稿中指 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Shanghai zinc (2512) closed at 22,720 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, with a week-on-week increase of 1.63%. The center of Shanghai zinc has risen [3]. - The macro situation is mixed with both positive and negative factors, and uncertainty is increasing. The increase in domestic refined zinc production falls short of expectations, and there is still a risk of a short squeeze in LME zinc, but the downstream operating rate is declining. With macro uncertainty and a mixed fundamental situation with limited driving forces, Shanghai zinc should be treated as a volatile market [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Price Data - The spread between December and January contracts of Shanghai zinc has changed little week-on-week, and the LME zinc 0 - 3M premium has strengthened [9]. - The spot premium in Shanghai has risen, while those in Guangdong and Tianjin are under pressure [12]. Fundamental Data - **Supply**: Smelters continue to scramble for domestic zinc ore, and the processing fee for imported ore continues to deteriorate. In October, domestic refined zinc production increased by more than 17,000 tons month-on-month and about 21% year-on-year, but the increase was less than expected. In November, production is expected to decrease by 0.9% month-on-month and increase by nearly 20% year-on-year [17][19][21]. - **Demand**: This week, the downstream operating rate has declined. The operating rate of galvanizing has decreased due to environmental protection restrictions in some areas, but orders from some southern terminals have improved, and the operating rate may rebound next week. The high zinc price has suppressed the operating rate of die-casting zinc alloy, which is expected to continue to decline next week. The market demand for zinc oxide is average, and the operating rate is expected to remain low next week [3][27]. - **Inventory**: Domestic zinc ingot spot inventory has slightly decreased and is at a high level compared to the same period last year, while the inventory in Shanghai Free Trade Zone remains unchanged. LME zinc inventory has slightly decreased and is at a low level compared to the same period last year [33][36]. - **Related Industries**: From October 27th to November 2nd, the transaction areas of new and second-hand houses in 10 key cities decreased year-on-year. In November, the production plan of household air conditioners is 12.76 million units, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the actual production in the same period last year. The production plan of refrigerators is 7.78 million units, a decrease of 9.4%. The production plan of washing machines is 7.93 million units, a decrease of 0.2%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of new energy passenger vehicles in the national market increased by 17% year-on-year. In November, the production plans of domestic component enterprises vary, and the overall production is expected to decline month-on-month [40][43][51].

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) maintains that its current monetary policy is effective in controlling inflation without causing economic recession, with key deposit rates held steady at 2% after a series of rate cuts since June 2024 [1][2]. Monetary Policy - ECB's key deposit rate has been held at 2% for three consecutive meetings, following a total reduction of 2 percentage points from a historical high of 4% starting in June 2024 [1]. - The ECB's recent policy decisions are aligned with the eurozone's inflation rate reaching the target of 2%, supported by stronger-than-expected GDP growth in Q3 [1][4]. Economic Indicators - The eurozone's inflation rate slightly increased to 2.2% in September, primarily driven by rising service prices, but overall inflation remains manageable [4]. - The HCOB Eurozone Composite PMI rose from 51.2 in September to 52.5 in October, marking the highest level in 29 months and indicating robust economic expansion [4][5]. Employment Trends - Employment growth in the eurozone accelerated to its highest level in 16 months, driven by increased hiring in the service sector, despite ongoing layoffs in manufacturing [5]. Risks and Uncertainties - The ECB acknowledges uncertainties in the economic outlook, including global trade disputes and geopolitical tensions, which could impact future inflation forecasts [2][3].

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for October decreased to 49.0% from 49.8%, indicating a contraction in the manufacturing sector, with various sub-indices showing declines in production, new orders, and export orders [2][19]. Group 1: Manufacturing PMI Data - The production index fell to 49.7%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous value of 51.9% [2][19]. - The new orders index decreased to 48.8% from 49.7%, while the new export orders index dropped to 45.9% from 47.8% [2][19]. - The employment index slightly declined to 48.3% from 48.5%, and the supplier delivery time index remained stable at 50.0% [2][19]. - The raw material inventory index decreased to 47.3% from 48.5%, indicating a reduction in inventory levels [2][19]. Group 2: Export and Construction Insights - The new export orders index at 45.9% suggests potential weakness in exports, but this may be influenced by seasonal factors and fewer working days in October [5][12]. - Despite the drop in the export index, demand from developed countries remains strong, with U.S. consumer spending trends improving [5][12]. - The construction PMI for October was 49.1%, indicating a slight decline, but new orders in the construction sector showed signs of recovery with a business activity expectation index of 56.0% [6][17]. Group 3: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI output price index fell to 47.5%, marking 17 consecutive months below the neutral line, while the main raw material purchase price index was at 52.5% [3][20]. - The procurement index decreased to 49.0%, indicating a reduction in purchasing activity, while the finished goods inventory index was at 48.1% [20]. - The construction industry showed a new orders index of 45.9%, which is an improvement compared to the previous year's 43.5% [20][21]. Group 4: Sectoral Expectations - The manufacturing activity expectation index for October was 52.8%, down from 54.1%, while the service sector expectation index remained stable at 56.1% [3][21]. - The construction sector's business activity expectation index increased, reflecting growing confidence among firms in certain industries [3][21]. - Overall, the composite PMI output index was at 50.0%, indicating stability in production activities across sectors [21].