过去九个月里，华尔街流行的"TACO交易"策略正面临一个悖论式难题。这一策略建立在"特朗普总会退 缩"的假设之上，但投资者的镇定反应本身可能正在阻止特朗普做出政策让步。 这种信心也解释了为何风险溢价在不确定性加剧的情况下仍保持压缩状态。 早前，特朗普推动接管格陵兰岛并威胁对欧洲盟友加征关税，令市场紧迫感骤升。周二美股大幅下挫， 标普500指数下跌2.1%，美元走弱，波动率攀升。尽管周三美股期货显示温和反弹，但这轮抛售能否持 续尚不明朗。 市场对特朗普的最新威胁表现淡定，但部分策略师警告，TACO交易可能为时过早，特朗普在格陵兰问 题上的野心似乎尤其坚定。而TACO交易要继续奏效，市场可能需要先经历一场更大规模、更混乱的暴 跌，以重现去年4月那种迫使特朗普改变立场的阵痛。当前市场估值远高于去年春季，标普500指数较 2022年低点已近翻倍，且仍接近历史高位，这使得市场容错空间大幅收窄。 策略逻辑陷入自我矛盾 "TACO交易"全称为"特朗普总会退缩"（Trump Always Chickens Out），诞生于去年4月美国总统推出全 球关税后又迅速回撤之际。这一策略迅速成为投资者的行动指南，鼓励他们无视白宫的极端 ...

过去九个月里，华尔街流行的"TACO交易"策略正面临一个悖论式难题。这一策略建立在"特朗普总会退 缩"的假设之上，但投资者的镇定反应本身可能正在阻止特朗普做出政策让步。 早前，特朗普推动接管格陵兰岛并威胁对欧洲盟友加征关税，令市场紧迫感骤升。周二美股大幅下挫， 标普500指数下跌2.1%，美元走弱，波动率攀升。尽管周三美股期货显示温和反弹，但这轮抛售能否持 续尚不明朗。 市场对特朗普的最新威胁表现淡定，但部分策略师警告，TACO交易可能为时过早，特朗普在格陵兰问 题上的野心似乎尤其坚定。而TACO交易要继续奏效，市场可能需要先经历一场更大规模、更混乱的暴 跌，以重现去年4月那种迫使特朗普改变立场的阵痛。当前市场估值远高于去年春季，标普500指数较 2022年低点已近翻倍，且仍接近历史高位，这使得市场容错空间大幅收窄。 策略逻辑陷入自我矛盾 "TACO交易"全称为"特朗普总会退缩"（Trump Always Chickens Out），诞生于去年4月美国总统推出全 球关税后又迅速回撤之际。这一策略迅速成为投资者的行动指南，鼓励他们无视白宫的极端威胁，继续 买入风险资产。 但这一策略正面临内在矛盾。BCA Res ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The recent rapid increase in long - term interest rates in the US and Japan has dragged down the performance of global bond markets, stock markets, and some commodity markets. This reflects not only the warming of the fundamentals and the rise in inflation expectations but also the loss of fiscal discipline in developed countries, challenges to central bank independence, and concerns about long - term bond demand under the background of global order reconstruction, resulting in the "anchor loss" of long - term and ultra - long - term interest rates and a rapid steepening of the yield curve [2][24]. - In the context of continuous global fiscal expansion and monetary coordination, if the upward slope of inflation is limited, a relatively positive attitude can still be maintained towards stocks and commodities such as non - ferrous metals. However, it is advisable to turn to a wait - and - see approach in the short term, wait for adjustments, and then allocate at low prices. Moderately bet on the TACO trade or the fed put market [2][26]. - The impact of the rise in global long - term interest rates on the domestic bond market is small, and the comparison effect is very limited. A decline in risk appetite and RMB appreciation may even bring certain benefits. There are certain uncertainties in both the technology stocks and high - dividend sectors of the Hong Kong stock market [2][26]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Conditions Assessment - **Domestic**: Last week's data showed that external demand remained high, prices rose, and domestic demand recovery was differentiated, with the production side maintaining resilience. High - frequency data indicated accelerated infrastructure investment. Consumption showed high travel enthusiasm but a year - on - year decline in automobile consumption. In the real estate market, transaction heat recovered from a low level, with second - hand housing showing stronger repair elasticity. External demand had high throughput year - on - year, and the production side was positively affected by the late Spring Festival. Industrial freight volume decline narrowed, and some industrial and construction indicators were stronger than seasonal levels. Prices of crude oil and black - series products rose [31]. - **Overseas**: Last week, US inflation and employment data were better than expected. The investigation of Powell intensified market concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, and the selection of the Fed chairman became a short - term focus. Geopolitical tensions fluctuated, increasing risk - aversion sentiment. The US 12 - month core CPI growth rate was 0.2%, and the initial jobless claims were lower than expected [32]. Configuration Suggestions - **A - shares**: After the market showed a large trading volume last week, there were frequent signals to cool down the market. The Spring Festival market is not over yet, and a "technical correction" is needed. Investors are advised to maintain their positions but adjust their portfolio structures, avoid broad - based ETF heavy - position stocks, high - valuation speculative sectors, and overseas liquidity - sensitive varieties, and focus on the opportunity for high - performance stocks to make up for losses [28]. - **Domestic Bonds**: There are short - term favorable conditions, with the 30 - 10 - year Treasury yield spread approaching 50bp. The operation strategy is "band trading + equity exposure + coupon > leverage operation > variety selection > credit downgrade". Continue to earn coupons in the short term and bet on long - term bands. It is recommended to reduce the convertible bond position to a neutral level [27]. - **US Bonds**: The probability of Kevin Warsh becoming the Fed chairman has risen to 61%. His policy of "interest rate cut + balance - sheet reduction" may lead to a steeper yield curve and an upward risk of long - term yields. Pay attention to the final appointment of the Fed chairman and whether Powell will continue to serve as a director. The 10 - year US Treasury has broken through the key resistance level of 4.2%, and it is more likely to continue rising in the short term [29]. - **US Stocks**: The new round of trade frictions between the US and Europe has suppressed risk appetite. The US may enter a state of "macro - cold + micro - hot" in the short term. The market is slightly overcrowded, but if there is a significant adjustment, it can be regarded as an opportunity. Structurally, the trend of style re - balancing may continue [30]. - **Commodities**: Geopolitical tensions have increased the demand for precious metals as a safe - haven asset, but price volatility has increased after reaching new highs. It is recommended to follow the trend and set stop - loss levels. Copper may face short - term adjustment pressure, energy metals are relatively strong but volatile, and crude oil price volatility has increased. The sentiment of black - series commodities has weakened [30]. Follow - up Concerns - **Domestic**: The 19th Asian Financial Forum and the news conference of the Ministry of Commerce [6][47] - **Overseas**: The Davos Forum, the IEA's monthly crude oil market report, the European Central Bank's December monetary policy meeting minutes, the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, US economic data such as the January S&P Global PMI preliminary value, and the eurozone's January consumer confidence index preliminary value [6][47]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the US stock, bond, and currency markets, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions and fiscal policies on financial conditions, particularly the concerns surrounding the de-dollarization trend and its potential effects on global markets [1][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On January 20, the US markets experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping over 2%, the 10-year US Treasury yield rising by 6 basis points to 4.3%, and the dollar depreciating while gold prices surged past $4,800, reaching a historical high [1]. - The overseas long-term bond market also faced pressure, with the 30-year US Treasury yield increasing by 8 basis points to over 4.9%, and the 30-year Japanese bond yield rising by 10 basis points above 3.5% [1]. Group 2: Causes of Market Turmoil - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Greenland, have reignited fears of de-dollarization, leading to concerns about potential asset sell-offs by European investors, who currently hold approximately $17 trillion in assets, including $3.6 trillion in US Treasuries [3][4]. - Historical precedents indicate that similar market fears have previously led to significant sell-offs of US debt, particularly during the "reciprocal tariffs" period in April 2025, where both official and private sectors reduced their holdings of US Treasuries [4]. Group 3: Fiscal Policies and Their Implications - Japan's fiscal policy is shifting towards "undisciplined expansion," raising concerns about fiscal sustainability as the government plans to dissolve the House of Representatives and suspend food consumption taxes for two years [7]. - The Bank of Japan's tightening measures, in response to internal and external pressures, are expected to exacerbate risks in Japanese bonds and have spillover effects on overseas long-term bond markets [7]. Group 4: Market Outlook - The de-dollarization trend is viewed as a short-term disturbance rather than a long-term trend, with the potential for market conditions to stabilize if geopolitical tensions ease [8][9]. - In the stock market, while rising long-term bond yields and increased risk aversion may pressure US equities in the short term, the core support for US stock growth remains strong, driven by earnings growth and potential Federal Reserve rate cuts [10]. - For the bond market, US Treasury yields are expected to revert to a downward trend following short-term fluctuations, with a recommendation to focus on 2-5 year maturities due to their relative certainty compared to long-term bonds [10]. - The dollar is anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 96-101, influenced by mixed economic signals, while gold prices are expected to continue their upward trend amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns over dollar credibility [11].

随着欧美紧张局势不断升级，投资者正试图保持冷静，不少人借鉴"解放日"时期的经验，以此应对当前 的地缘政治波动。 分析师的不安情绪实属情理之中，其担忧源于美国总统特朗普的表态：若多个欧洲国家不支持美国收购 格陵兰岛的计划，将在几周内对其加征新关税。值得注意的是，格陵兰岛目前是北约成员国丹麦的领 土，且丹麦方面明确表示不会出售该岛。 截至周二盘前，波动率指数（VIX）在过去五个交易日累计上涨27%，创下去年4月以来的新高——彼 时白宫曾宣布对全球所有国家征收全面关税。全球股市均表现疲软。与此同时，作为投资者避险风向标 之一的黄金价格再创历史新高。 不过，市场本可能遭受更严重的冲击，原因在于不到一年前的经验。去年4月2日，特朗普在白宫玫瑰园 发表讲话（即所谓的"解放日"讲话）后，市场应声暴跌，尽管其威胁加征的多项关税在数日内就被推迟 实施。也正是从那时起，"TACO交易"应运而生，这一交易逻辑的核心是"特朗普总会临阵退缩（Trump Always Chickens Out）"。 德意志银行的吉姆・里德（Jim Reid）向客户指出，市场原本"存在更大波动的空间"，并强调特朗普对 主要贸易伙伴加征关税的举措本就根基不 ...

值得关注的是，加元对加拿大总理马克.卡尼寻求拓展全球贸易伙伴的相关消息作出了积极反应。卡尼 政府致力于强化与中国的合作关系，目前已签署多项小型贸易协议。不过，受加拿大地理位置限制，且 其经济对美国仍存在巨额依赖，这意味着该国摆脱美国经济影响的空间相对有限。 1月21日回顾前一交易日(1月20日)美国盘初表现，尽管美股自早盘低谷逐步回升，整体市场风险偏好却 依旧处于低迷状态——但这一情绪若仅通过商品货币走势观察，恐怕会得出完全相反的结论。 实际上，澳元、纽元和加元兑美元汇率均录得上涨，这种走势在市场避险情绪升温的环境下实属罕见。 这一异常表现让人联想到去年类似的市场异动，当时特殊交易逻辑曾引发"抛售美元资产"的市场浪潮。 而此次，特朗普对相关议题态度坚决，并无退让迹象，甚至再度重申了收购格陵兰岛的诉求。更令人难 以设想的极端情景是，特朗普可能动用军事力量夺取格陵兰岛控制权。尽管他在面对记者追问时回避了 这一问题，但"吞并"这一构想本身就足以引发市场动荡，给全球市场带来不确定性冲击。 与此同时，美国最高法院就相关政策合法性的裁决再度搁置，结果预计推迟至2月20日公布。这一延迟 为市场预留了充足的反应时间，在特朗普 ...

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical tensions surrounding Greenland and Japan's domestic fiscal concerns have disrupted the previously calm financial markets, leading to a significant sell-off in U.S. assets [2][3]. Group 1: Market Reactions - U.S. financial markets experienced a "triple whammy" with major indices like the S&P 500 dropping over 2%, erasing all gains for the year and marking the largest single-day decline in over three months [3][6]. - The VIX index, which measures market volatility, surged to its highest level since November of the previous year, indicating heightened investor fear [3]. - Gold prices reached a historic high of over $4,700 per ounce, while U.S. Treasury yields rose significantly, leading to a decline in the dollar's value [3]. Group 2: Causes of Market Turmoil - The initial trigger for the global sell-off was a spike in Japan's 30-year government bond yields, which rose over 25 basis points due to concerns over Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's tax cuts and spending plans [3][8]. - This spike threatened the "carry trade" strategy of borrowing low-interest yen to invest in global assets, causing a ripple effect that pushed bond yields higher in other regions [8]. - Investor patience regarding the Trump administration's actions, including its aggressive stance towards Venezuela and NATO allies, is waning, leading to increased market anxiety [3]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Strategies - Analysts suggest that creating market volatility may be a strategy for European governments to exert pressure, as President Trump is particularly sensitive to market movements [4]. - The previous month saw historically low volatility in U.S. bonds, stocks, and the dollar, attributed to traders' immunity to Trump's rhetoric, a strategy known as "TACO" trading [4]. - The recent market downturn signifies a reversal of this sentiment, with long-term U.S. Treasury bonds experiencing the most significant impact, as yields approached their highest levels for 2023 [4]. Group 4: Geopolitical Concerns and Future Outlook - The aggressive posture of the Trump administration towards European allies has raised investor concerns, prompting some, like Denmark's AkademikerPension, to divest from U.S. Treasuries due to perceived credit risks [10][11]. - Despite a general belief that diplomatic solutions will be reached regarding Greenland, the chaotic negotiation style of the White House is undermining market confidence [11]. - Analysts predict that while a resolution may eventually be found, the interim period will likely see increased volatility, benefiting sectors such as defense, finance, and gold [11].

随着格陵兰岛的地缘政治争端加剧以及日本国内财政担忧引爆全球债市，华尔街此前数周的诡异平静被彻底打破，"抛售美国"交易以猛烈姿态重 回市场视野。 周二开盘后，美国金融市场遭遇股债汇"三杀"。标普500指数重挫超过2%，不仅抹去了今年以来的全部涨幅，更创下三个多月来的最大单日跌 幅。 衡量市场恐慌程度的VIX指数飙升至去年11月以来最高水平。与此同时，避险情绪推动黄金价格突破每盎司4700美元的历史新高，美债收益率显 著攀升，美元汇率则随之下滑。 这场全球市场抛售潮最初由日本国内问题引发。日本30年期国债收益率单日飙升超过25个基点，市场担忧首相高市早苗的减税和增支计划将危及 该国财政。这一波动威胁到以日元低息贷款购买全球资产的套利交易，并推动其他地区债券收益率上升。 投资者此前对特朗普政府行动——包括其对委内瑞拉局势的干预、对周边国家的威胁及对美联储的抨击——大多采取"置之不理"的态度，而如今 这种耐心正在消退。特朗普要求美国控制格陵兰岛的举动引发了市场对最坏情况的担忧，包括北约联盟可能破裂，或爆发全面贸易战。 过去一个月美国债券、股票和美元的波动率曾降至至少1990年以来的最低水平。华尔街见闻此前提及，这种异 ...

【环球时报驻德国特约记者 青木】美欧围绕格陵兰岛展开的经贸博弈给了欧洲市场"当头一棒"。当地 时间19日，欧股开盘下跌，泛欧斯托克600指数收跌1.18%，德国DAX 30指数跌1.34%，法国CAC 40指 数跌1.78%。汽车、奢侈品等与美国市场高度相关的行业所受冲击最大。截至20日下午5时，跌势延 续。同时，避险资产黄金的价格再创新高，20日午后，现货黄金盘中突破4700美元/盎司，再创历史新 高。更令市场担忧的是，贸易冲突"战火重燃"将给跨大西洋经贸关系带来怎样深远的负面影响。彭博社 19日援引荷兰国际集团驻布鲁塞尔首席投资策略师文森特·朱文斯的话报道称，如果单纯看关税上调， 从经济角度来说或许可以承受，"但西方世界内部出现裂痕的可能性将带来难以估量的严重后果。" " 紧张情绪显而易见 " "美国总统特朗普威胁对反对其主张格陵兰岛控制权的国家加征关税，可能重新引发类似其第二任期初 曾冲击市场的波动性。"彭博社20日报道称。在欧洲方面表示不会让步并考虑采取报复措施后，周一欧 洲股市的抛售加剧。"紧张情绪显而易见。"英国金融机构IG集团驻巴黎首席市场分析师亚历山大·巴拉 德兹表示。 据路透社20日报道，奢 ...

花旗集团在时隔一年多后首次下调了欧洲股票的评级，其理由是欧盟与美国的关系因美国总统特朗普试 图"夺取"格陵兰岛一事而趋于紧张恶化。考虑到近期欧洲(除英国外)的投资前景并不乐观，花旗集团将 欧洲股票在其全球资产配置中的评级下调至"中性"。与此同时，该行还将日本股票的评级从"中性"上调 至"增持"。 至少就目前而言，花旗集团的策略师们认为新兴市场和日本的风险回报比更高。"我们对欧洲斯托克600 指数的预测目标仍指向2026年底的上涨空间，但我们认为其他地方的风险回报比更具吸引力。"他们写 道。 曼特希的团队表示，在其资产配置中，日本已取代欧洲成为超配市场。他们认为，从再通胀及其他因素 来看，亚洲市场在盈利和估值方面具有长期的有利趋势。 除此之外，国际主流投行与研究机构对欧洲经济前景普遍持谨慎态度。其中，媒体智库分析指出，若贸 易争端持续升级，关税壁垒可能会抹去欧洲企业在2026财年的大部分预期收益增长，并可能导致欧洲股 市出现中等个位数的深度回调。 高盛与凯投宏观的经济学家则联合发出预警，称关税举措将对德国、英国等主要经济体的国内生产总值 造成0.2%至0.3%的即时拖累。 目前，市场关注的焦点已转向欧盟的潜在反 ...