TACO交易

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中信证券:特朗普“唱白脸”+贝森特“唱红脸”
news flash· 2025-07-21 00:40
Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities highlights the contrasting roles of President Trump and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin in influencing market sentiment, with Trump causing market disturbances and Mnuchin providing calming reassurances [1] Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's statements on July 14 shocked the market, creating negative impacts due to his comments on Section 899, US-Japan tariff negotiations, and the potential dismissal of Powell [1] - Mnuchin's subsequent remarks aimed to stabilize the market, expressing optimism about reaching a US-Japan tariff agreement before August 1 and advising Congress to remove Section 899 from OBBBA [1] Group 2: TACO Trading Strategy - The report suggests that the interactions between Trump and Mnuchin exemplify a "TACO trading" strategy, where Trump's negative news is countered by Mnuchin's positive statements, creating a predictable market response [1] - Mnuchin is portrayed as a voice for the Trump administration, providing necessary context and reassurance following Trump's disruptive announcements [1]
国泰海通 · 晨报0721|宏观、策略、海外策略
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-07-20 14:31
Group 1: Tariff Measures and Economic Impact - Tariff measures in the U.S. saw a high start but began to cool down after April 9, leading to market perceptions of TACO [2] - Actual tariff revenue growth from January to May was 6.5%, significantly lower than the theoretical increase of 14.5%, due to China's strategies to reduce high-tariff imports and ineffective implementation of tariffs on Mexico and Canada [3][4] - The economic impact of tariffs was lower than expected, with stable export volumes from China and low inflation in the U.S. despite tariffs, attributed to lower effective tax rates and weak demand in the automotive market [5] Group 2: Mid-Year Earnings Preview - The overall economic growth remains constrained, with a pre-announcement rate of 43.7% for mid-year earnings, lower than the past three years, indicating a weak profit growth of 1.0% for the entire A-share market [8] - Emerging technology sectors are showing signs of improvement, particularly in high-tech industries like equipment manufacturing, while traditional sectors are lagging [9][10] - Certain cyclical industries, such as rare metals and chemicals, are experiencing price increases, and some sectors are showing signs of recovery in earnings due to capacity reductions [10] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market outperformed globally in the first half of the year but has shown weakness since late June, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and currency fluctuations [13][14] - Current market heat in Hong Kong is at historical mid-levels, with technology and financial sectors showing lower heat compared to A-shares, while healthcare and consumer sectors are performing better [14] - Positive factors are accumulating for the Hong Kong market, suggesting a potential outperformance against A-shares in the second half of the year, driven by consumption policies and foreign capital inflows [15]
【笔记20250717— 债市:温水煮青蛙·SPA牛】
债券笔记· 2025-07-17 13:28
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the bond market, highlighting the balance in the funding environment and the slight increase in long-term bond yields, while also noting the impact of central bank operations and market reactions to external news events. Group 1: Central Bank Operations - The central bank conducted a 450.5 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 360.5 billion yuan after 90 billion yuan of reverse repos matured [2] - The funding rates showed a slight decline, with DR001 around 1.46% and DR007 around 1.52% [2] - Continuous large net injections by the central bank over two days have contributed to a stable funding environment during the tax period [3] Group 2: Market Reactions - The overnight rumors regarding Powell's dismissal caused initial market turmoil, with U.S. stocks experiencing volatility before stabilizing [4] - The 10-year government bond yield opened at 1.659% and fluctuated slightly, reflecting a stable sentiment in the bond market [4] - Since June, the 10-year government bond yield has been oscillating within the range of 1.63% to 1.68%, indicating a narrow trading band [4] Group 3: Stock Market Performance - The stock market has shown resilience, remaining above 3500 points for six consecutive days, with investors expressing optimism despite potential downturns [4] - The surge in polysilicon prices by 50% since the end of June has contributed to a broader commodity market rally [4]
市场低估了特朗普?分析师警告:TACO交易恐将“翻车”
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-17 06:28
Core Viewpoint - Analysts are warning that global investors may be underestimating President Trump's commitment to his latest tariff threats, which could have significant implications for the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Reactions - The European market reacted mildly to Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on goods imported from the EU and Mexico, with the Stoxx 600 index only dropping 0.06% on the first trading day after the announcement [2] - The index experienced a slightly deeper sell-off of 0.4% the following day, primarily influenced by concerns over rising inflation and economic growth [2] - In contrast to earlier market reactions, the current sentiment appears more complacent, despite the impending higher tariff rates compared to those set in April [2][3] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - Many investors are betting on the "TACO" trade, believing that Trump's tariff threats are merely negotiation tactics and unlikely to be fully realized [3] - Some analysts express concern that this complacency could lead to significant losses for investors who expect a trade agreement to be reached [3][4] Group 3: Economic Implications - Analysts warn that the implementation of a 30% tariff could derail the current bullish trend in European markets, potentially leading to a slowdown in GDP growth [6] - The Stoxx 600 index has risen over 7% this year, with significant gains in major indices like Germany's DAX and Italy's FTSE MIB, but high tariffs could disrupt this momentum [5][6] Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - If tariffs are implemented, sectors such as defense, finance, and mining may perform relatively well, especially if defense spending continues to rise and the European Central Bank maintains low interest rates [6] - Conversely, European exporters, particularly in the automotive sector, are expected to be adversely affected by the tariffs [6]
金十整理:特朗普恐吓市场上瘾?盘一盘4月“解放日”以来,共出现过几次“TACO交易”
news flash· 2025-07-17 03:26
Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the volatility in the market due to Trump's tariff threats and the subsequent delays in their implementation, highlighting the phenomenon of "TACO trades" since April's "Liberation Day" [1][2]. Major TACO Trades - On April 9, tariffs on multiple countries were set to a maximum rate of 50%, but Trump announced a 90-day suspension a week later, reducing the rates [1]. - On May 26, Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU, but postponed the effective date to July 9 to allow for negotiations [1]. - In early July, the suspension of tariffs was extended to August 1, following the original July 9 deadline [1]. - On July 14, Trump threatened 100% tariffs on Russia if hostilities continued, but provided a 50-day buffer period [1]. - On July 16, reports emerged of Trump considering firing Powell, leading to significant market fluctuations, which he later denied [1]. Market Perspectives - Barclays believes rationality will prevail, as Trump's tolerance for market volatility appears limited [3]. - HSBC suggests that the Trump administration could easily delay tariffs again without any obstacles [3]. - Mitsubishi UFJ notes that the market does not expect a repeat of the turmoil caused by the April tariffs [3]. - Deutsche Bank warns that if Trump does not back down this time, significant market volatility could ensue [3]. - Nordea highlights the unprecedented scale of tariff increases, yet the market remains unusually calm, which is concerning [3]. - Analyst Jamie McGeever points out that the line between complacency and "TACO trades" may have blurred, potentially encouraging Trump to intensify tariff actions [3]. - SPI Asset Management indicates that the market currently views Trump's new tariffs on the EU and Mexico as mere noise, but risks are increasing as deadlines approach [3].
市场正押注特朗普会对关税让步,并寄望于美联储救市
财富FORTUNE· 2025-07-16 13:01
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that investors are currently underestimating the potential impact of Trump's tariffs on Mexico and the EU, believing that these tariffs will eventually be negotiated away or postponed [1][3]. - Deutsche Bank warns that the "TACO trade" (the belief that Trump will ultimately back down) is accumulating significant risks, suggesting that the market has not fully absorbed the implications of the high tariffs [2][3]. - Analysts from Deutsche Bank and Goldman Sachs express concerns that the market's expectation of these tariffs not being implemented may lead to severe market reactions if they do come into effect [3][4]. Group 2 - Morgan Stanley predicts that the economic impact of tariffs will lead to "stagflation tendencies" in the second half of the year, highlighting a disconnect between market pricing and economic forecasts [4]. - The article discusses the prevailing market sentiment that if the "TACO trade" fails, the Federal Reserve will intervene to support the market, but rising tariffs could complicate this scenario by increasing inflation [3][4].
TACO热度居高不下,“厄运循环”或悄然来临!
Jin Shi Shu Ju· 2025-07-16 05:52
Group 1 - The stock market's remarkable rebound since early April reflects investors' bets that President Trump will not follow through on his tariff threats [1] - Market resilience may paradoxically encourage Trump to push forward with tariffs, which could be negative for the stock market [1] - Investors believe that the "reciprocal tariffs" strategy is largely forcing countries back to the negotiating table, with actual tariffs likely to be lower than initially stated [1] Group 2 - The S&P 500 index has rebounded significantly, reaching a historical high in less than three months, marking the second-fastest recovery from a bear market in 75 years [5] - The technology sector has driven this rebound, with valuations at rare highs over the past 25 years [5] - If the final tariff rates are around 10% like the UK, the stock market pricing may be reasonable, but higher rates could necessitate a significant downward adjustment in growth expectations [6] Group 3 - Concerns exist about a potential "doom loop" where market resilience encourages Trump to escalate tariffs, leading to increased trade uncertainty [7] - Analysts from Barclays suggest that Trump's tolerance for stock and bond market volatility appears limited, indicating a potential for rational decision-making [7] - The U.S. imported $605.7 billion worth of goods from the EU last year, highlighting the significance of EU trade relations, which could impact market dynamics if tariffs are escalated [7]
事件驱动再次抬头与应对
HTSC· 2025-07-16 05:31
Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. Core Views - Market event-driven characteristics are rising, increasing potential asset volatility. Key macro events include Trump's tariff remarks, potential early departure of Powell, escalating uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and domestic policy expectations [1][2]. - In response, it's advisable to rely on high - odds opportunities from macro events for left - hand reversal trading, seek high - probability opportunities based on fundamental trends, and diversify asset allocation from a macro - risk perspective [1][2]. Summary by Directory Current Market Influencing Events - **Trump's Tariff Remarks**: Trump proposed additional reciprocal tariffs, planning 30% tariffs on Mexico and the EU, and 25% - 40% on Japan and South Korea. The market's reaction is relatively calm under the TACO expectation, but the probability of final tariff implementation is not low [9][10]. - **Fed Independence Challenge**: Powell's early departure is a potential black swan event. If it occurs, it may lead to a rapid steepening of US Treasury yields and a significant decline in the US dollar. Trump may appoint more dovish candidates, increasing inflation and long - term interest rate risks [13]. - **Russia - Ukraine Conflict**: The uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine conflict is rising, but the market's sensitivity to geopolitical disturbances has decreased significantly. However, if oil prices remain high for a long time, it may bring a "stagflation" shock to the global economy [17]. - **Domestic Policy Expectations**: The market focuses on the implementation of policies such as "anti - involution" and "urban renewal", and upcoming events include the July domestic important meeting and the China - EU Summit [20]. Market Condition Assessment - **Domestic**: The summer travel boom remains resilient, real - estate transactions are differentiated, "anti - involution" supports black - commodity prices, and external demand has declined. Monetary policy focuses on short - term liquidity management, and fiscal policy involves special treasury bond issuance, employment stability, and pension adjustment. Real - estate policies continue to boost demand [3][45]. - **US**: The labor market remains resilient, consumption is marginally improving, tariff disturbances are increasing, and the expectation of Fed rate cuts is decreasing [3][46]. Allocation Recommendations - **Domestic Bonds**: Support factors for the domestic bond market remain. The market is more sensitive to monetary policy and capital flows. Interest - rate bonds can be traded in bands, and 7 - and 10 - year bonds can be bought on significant adjustments [41]. - **Domestic Stocks**: The next policy focus is the July important meeting, and the earnings disclosure period is approaching. Investors are advised to strengthen trading thinking to prevent fluctuations [42]. - **US Treasury Bonds**: There are many short - term disturbances. It is recommended to start buying 10 - year US Treasury bonds around a 4.5% yield [42]. - **US Stocks**: As the earnings period approaches, the focus shifts to corporate earnings. The short - term trend may be volatile and differentiated [43]. - **Commodities**: Gold is still in an upward trend, with short - term volatile and strong performance. The price of black - commodity is affected by "anti - involution" policies, and the short - term uncertainty of oil prices is high [44]. Follow - up Concerns - **Domestic**: LPR quotes [5][60]. - **Overseas**: US June PPI monthly rate, industrial production monthly rate, retail monthly rate, Fed's economic situation Beige Book, Eurozone June CPI monthly rate, May trade balance and current account, and UK June employment data [5][61].
全球铜价将如何演绎?
Qi Huo Ri Bao Wang· 2025-07-16 01:04
Group 1 - The U.S. will impose a 50% tariff on copper imports starting August 1, 2025, following a national security assessment [1][2] - This tariff is expected to significantly impact global copper trade flows and may lead to increased costs for U.S. industries reliant on copper, such as automotive and electrical sectors [6][11] - The COMEX copper futures price surged by 10% to a record high of $5.89 per pound after the announcement, while LME copper prices fell over 2% [2][10] Group 2 - The COMEX-LME copper futures price spread has reached a historical high of $2,677 per ton, indicating a significant divergence in market pricing [2][4] - U.S. copper imports have surged, with 685,000 tons imported in the first half of the year, nearly matching the total expected for 2024 [10] - The anticipated tariff could lead to a 5% to 8% reduction in U.S. copper demand, as higher costs may deter consumption [15] Group 3 - The tariff is part of a broader strategy to reshape U.S. copper industry dynamics and reduce reliance on imports from 45% to 30% by 2035 [11] - The U.S. is leveraging the tariff to gain political capital ahead of the Republican National Convention, showcasing a decisive stance on trade [9] - The potential for increased copper prices and volatility in the market is heightened, with expectations of a significant impact on global supply chains [11][15] Group 4 - China's copper imports are heavily reliant on the U.S., with over 80% of copper concentrate imports coming from abroad, raising concerns about supply chain disruptions [13] - The copper market is experiencing a seasonal slowdown in China, which could exacerbate inventory pressures if U.S. tariffs redirect copper flows to Asia [13] - The long-term outlook for copper remains positive, driven by increasing demand in renewable energy and electric vehicle sectors [16][17]
关税落地冲击TACO交易
Tebon Securities· 2025-07-14 08:22
Market Performance - Global stock markets showed mixed performance last week, with US indices experiencing declines: Nasdaq down -0.1%, S&P 500 down -0.3%, and Dow Jones down -1.0%[3] - European markets saw gains, with Germany's DAX up +2.0%, France's CAC40 up +1.7%, and UK's FTSE 100 up +1.3%[3] - In the Asia-Pacific region, Vietnam's VN30 index led gains, while Japan's Nikkei 225 and India's SENSEX30 indices experienced pullbacks[3] Tariff Impact - The reintroduction of tariffs has created significant uncertainty for TACO transactions, with US tariffs on the EU exceeding expectations, ranging from 25% to 50% effective August 1[3] - Trump's announcement of a 30% tariff on the EU and Mexico, alongside a 35% tariff on Canada, indicates a strategy of "maximum pressure" on allies, potentially disrupting market perceptions of TACO transactions[3] - According to TAX FOUNDATION, the weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, leading to an estimated annual tariff revenue of $665.91 billion based on a $4.1 trillion import scale for 2024[3] Federal Reserve Outlook - Divergence in interest rate cut expectations has increased, influenced by tariff uncertainties; some Fed officials express caution regarding inflation impacts from tariffs[3] - The latest FOMC minutes indicate a preference for observing tariff impacts before deciding on rate cuts, with market expectations leaning towards a potential rate cut starting in September[3] - Trump's pressure on the Fed, including social media calls for rate cuts, adds complexity to the interest rate outlook, with market volatility expected until September[3] Investment Strategy - The unexpected tariffs may impact TACO transactions and short-term market sentiment, leading to increased volatility in US stocks and gold[3] - Long-term investment recommendations include positioning in US Treasuries and XBI, which may benefit from strengthened rate cut expectations[3] Risk Factors - Risks include potential unexpected rebounds in overseas inflation, weaker-than-expected global economic conditions, and escalated geopolitical tensions that could lead to increased market volatility[3]