每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 12月5日早盘，中证石化产业指数高开后震荡调整，成分股扬农化工、华峰化学、亚钾国际、鲁西 化工等领涨。相关ETF方面，石化ETF（159731）近10个交易日内有9日资金净流入，合计"吸 金"2550.14万元。 华泰证券研报认为，春季躁动是A股较为显著的日历效应。2018年以来，春季躁动行情启动的典型 环境包括基本面预期改善、宏观流动性改善、政策及产业主题迎来催化等，当多因素共振时，行情弹性 更大。参照历史经验，成长和周期是高胜率的板块风格，前者关注航空装备、AI链，后者关注化工品 及能源金属。 石化ETF（159731）及其联接基金（017855/017856）紧密跟踪中证石化产业指数，从申万一级行 业分布来看，基础化工行业占比为60.39%，石油石化行业占比为32.71%。石化行业新一轮产能扩张周 期步入尾声，供需 ...

截至收盘，中证A500指数上涨0.4%，中证A100指数、中证A50指数均上涨0.6%，A500ETF易方达（159361）全天成交额近45亿元。 华泰证券表示，展望后市，12月有望迎来基本面预期及宏观流动性改善、政策及产业主题催化以及筹码压力消化的先后落地，春季躁动或提前启动。配置方 面，关注"春躁"中的高胜率方向，成长与周期均衡配置高性价比的细分方向。 | A500ETF易方达 低费率 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 跟踪中证A500指数 | | | | | 该指数由各行业市值较大、流 | ▽日 | 该指数 | 该指数 | | 动性较好的500只证券组成, | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 以来估 | | 覆盖93个三级行业中的91个 | 0. 4% | 16. 41 | 68. | | A100ETF易方达 低费率 | | | | | 跟踪中证A100指数 | | | | | 该指数由具有行业代表性的市 | ▽日 | 该指数 | 该指数! | | 值较大、流动性较好的100只 | 该指数涨跌 | 滚动市盈率 | 发布以来 | | 证券组成,覆盖46个中证三级 | ...

Market Overview - The market experienced fluctuations with the ChiNext and STAR Market rebounding, but overall strength was weak, leading to a slight decline in the Shanghai Composite Index [1] - The total market turnover was 1.5 trillion, a decrease of over 100 billion compared to the previous trading day, with over 3,800 stocks declining [1] Sector Performance - The robotics sector saw a strong surge, with stocks like Huawu Co. and Rifa Precision Machinery hitting the daily limit [1] - The commercial aerospace sector was active, with stocks like China Satellite also reaching the daily limit, supported by policies promoting high-quality development in the industry [1] - Semiconductor and chip stocks rose, with companies like Huahong Semiconductor and Zhongwei Technology leading the gains, driven by advancements in AI and domestic production capacity expansions [1] Key Developments - The Trump administration is considering an executive order on robotics technology for next year, which may impact the sector positively [1] - The launch of the T800 humanoid robot by Zhongqing Robotics marks a significant advancement in the robotics field, with sales processes officially starting [1] Investment Insights - Major funds are focusing on sectors such as home appliance components, automotive parts, and specialized equipment, with significant net inflows into stocks like Sanhua Intelligent Controls and Jilun Intelligent [3] - Analysts from招商证券 suggest a bullish outlook for December, recommending investments in cyclical sectors like coal and basic chemicals, as well as high-end manufacturing [9] - 广发证券 indicates that the market is transitioning from large-cap to small-cap stocks, with December and January being favorable for spring market movements [10]

Market Overview - The three major indices rebounded collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.06%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.22%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.4% as of 9:40 AM [1] Active Sectors 1. Humanoid Robots - The humanoid robot sector was active, with Junya Technology, Longxi Co., and Ruineng Technology hitting the daily limit, while Daying Electronics, Huichen Co., and Siling Co. also saw gains. The sector's growth is supported by Tesla's release of a running video of its "Optimus" humanoid robot, indicating rapid advancements in the industry [4] 2. Industrial Metals - The industrial metals sector opened higher, with Luoyang Molybdenum rising over 4% and Jiangxi Copper up over 3%. The surge in copper prices is attributed to a significant increase in orders for copper extraction from London Metal Exchange warehouses, raising supply concerns. Analysts expect continued high copper prices due to supply shortages and low domestic inventory levels [3] Institutional Insights 1. Investment Recommendations - According to招商证券, December is expected to favor large-cap stocks, particularly in coal and basic chemicals, as the market is likely to break upward after three months of consolidation. The firm highlights the importance of upcoming economic policy announcements in December [5] 2. Market Trends - 广发证券 suggests that the market will shift from large-cap to small-cap stocks as the correlation between market movements and fundamentals strengthens in December. The period from December to January is seen as an excellent time for spring rally positioning, especially in sectors with positive earnings forecasts [6] 3. Fund Flow Dynamics - 华西证券 notes that the slowdown in incremental capital entering the market has led to faster sector rotation. With year-end approaching, investor risk appetite is decreasing, prompting a focus on sectors that align with upcoming policy changes and economic goals for 2026 [7]

Market Overview - The A-share market is currently in a short-term repair process, but the strength of the recovery remains weak, with the Shanghai Composite Index hovering near the 10-day moving average without sufficient incremental capital support [1] - The market has shifted from a unilateral rebound to a complex oscillation phase, with upward momentum significantly weakening due to a lack of sustained incremental capital and fundamental resonance [1] Sector Analysis - The adjustment in the technology growth sector is not yet over, and its direction is crucial for the overall market sentiment [1] - Recent rebounds in the technology sector are primarily driven by policy support and overseas market influences, indicating a recovery in risk appetite, but the adjustment cycle is still ongoing [1] Investment Strategy - Major brokerage firms are optimistic about the cross-year market outlook, identifying December as a key window for positioning ahead of the "spring market" effect, which typically lasts about 20 trading days from the Spring Festival to the Two Sessions [2] - Two critical time points to watch are the Federal Reserve's meeting after December 10, which may influence global liquidity expectations, and the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference, which will set the tone for China's economic policy for the following year [2] Short-term Market Sentiment - The current market continues to adjust, with all three major indices breaking below the 5-day moving average and increased trading volume compared to the previous day [3] - Some popular sectors are showing signs of capital outflow, leading to a decrease in market risk appetite, which may increase the likelihood of short-term downward fluctuations [3]

Core Insights - The China Securities A500 Index fell by 0.6%, the A100 Index by 0.5%, and the A50 Index by 0.4%, while funds chose to increase their positions in related ETFs, particularly the A500 ETF from E Fund, which saw a net subscription of 36 million units for the day, following a nearly 100 million yuan net inflow on the previous trading day [1][3][4] - CITIC Securities believes that the slow bull market pattern remains unchanged, and anticipates an early spring rally next year, suggesting strategic positioning ahead of key meetings in mid-December to prepare for the year-end market [1] ETF Performance - The A500 ETF tracks the A500 Index, which consists of 500 securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 91 out of 93 sub-industries [3] - The A100 ETF tracks the A100 Index, composed of 100 representative securities with large market capitalization and good liquidity, covering 46 sub-industries, reflecting the overall performance of major listed companies [3] - The A50 Index is made up of the 50 largest stocks by market capitalization, covering 50 sub-industries, with a notable focus on large-cap stocks [4]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective pullback, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% closing at 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component down 0.78% at 12955.25 points, and the ChiNext Index down 1.12% at 3036.79 points [2] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.67 trillion, an increase of 76.5 billion compared to the previous day [2] Market Dynamics - The behavior of major players in the market, particularly in lifting bank stocks, is questioned as it may lead to panic among investors due to the perception of "pump and dump" strategies [3] - Despite a brief rise in bank stocks, they ultimately fell by approximately 0.6%, reflecting a broader market decline where around 3800 stocks were down and only about 1400 were up [3] - The median decline for individual stocks was 0.9%, indicating that most investors faced losses during the trading session [3] Sector Performance - Strong performance was noted in the coal and electricity sectors, while TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) and new energy stocks showed weakness [4] - Key stocks like CATL and Cambricon Technologies struggled to support the index, with CATL down about 1% [4] - The Hong Kong market, which has not been heavily intervened, showed a more natural adjustment process, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index both down over 1% [4] Securities Sector - Major players in the securities sector, including CITIC Securities and East Money, experienced significant downward movements, indicating a bearish sentiment in the market [5] - The performance of the securities sector, often seen as a barometer for market trends, suggests that investors should be cautious about the timing and extent of market adjustments [5]

风险提示：以上内容仅作为作者或者嘉宾的观点，不代表和讯的任何立场，不构成与和讯相关的任何投 资建议。在作出任何投资决定前，投资者应根据自身情况考虑投资产品相关的风险因素，并于需要时咨 询专业投资顾问意见。和讯竭力但不能证实上述内容的真实性、准确性和原创性，对此和讯不做任何保 证和承诺。 本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 股票名称 板块名称 ["消费","石化","钢铁","有色","煤炭","建材","大金融","TMT","高端制造"] 岁末年初、市场风格、春季躁动 看多看空 岁末年初市场风格呈现'价值搭台，成长唱戏'特征，不同阶段各有优势板块，且背后有 年末政策预期、资金持仓偏好等利好因素支撑，虽有风险提示，但整体体现出市场有较好的表现 机会，所以看多A股。 兴业证券11月30日发布《会有跨年行情吗？》报告指出，岁末年初日历效应显著，呈现"价值搭台，成 长唱戏"特征。12月至次年1月，市场风格均衡，大盘、低估值、顺周期风格占优，消费、石化等板块胜 率提升，与年末政策预期、险资持仓偏好及业绩预告担忧有关。春节临近至两会前，是流动性和风险偏 好驱动的躁动窗口，小盘、科技成长风格占优 ...

截至收盘，中证A500指数下跌0.6%，中证A100指数、中证A50指数均下跌0.5%，相关ETF获资金关 注，A500ETF易方达（159361）全天净申购超8000万份。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 广发证券表示，进入12月，基本面定价的有效性会逐步加强。"赚钱效应"最好的时间窗即将打开。每年 春季有两个重要时间点：春节、全国两会。在这期间，市场有很好的"赚钱效应" ，也就是 "春季躁 动"窗口期，平均持续约20个交易日，12月到明年1月是春季躁动布局的良好时机。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that A-shares are expected to experience improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, policy and industry themes, and chip pressure digestion in December, potentially leading to an early start of the spring rally [1][2] - The spring rally is a significant calendar effect in A-shares, characterized by improvements in fundamental expectations, macro liquidity, and policy/industry themes [2][3] - The observation window for the first two points is from early to mid-December, while the third point is around mid-December [3] Group 2 - In terms of structural performance, small-cap stocks have a higher win rate (75% since 2010), with leading sectors typically being cyclical or growth-oriented, both of which have win rates exceeding 80% since 2010 [3] - The cyclical sector is driven by price increase expectations, while the growth sector is driven by industry themes, with a focus on aviation equipment, AI-related energy storage, and power grid equipment for the former, and chemicals and energy metals for the latter [3] Group 3 - ByteDance has launched the "Doubao Phone Assistant," aiming to integrate AI capabilities at the OS level, indicating a shift from being a standalone app to a more integrated approach [4] - The product is still in the early exploration phase, but the partnership with Nubia for high-frequency iterations shows ByteDance's commitment to capturing the AI native entry point in mobile [4][5] - ByteDance's strategy involves open collaboration to provide its AI models as the "brain" for various hardware brands, avoiding supply chain risks and enabling rapid penetration into the Android ecosystem [4] Group 4 - The next key focus for ByteDance is the "Force Byte Original Power Conference" on December 18-19, where new members of its ecosystem may be announced, potentially involving upgrades to multimodal model capabilities or new hardware partnerships [5] - The integration of AI across devices, such as through the Ola Friend AI earphones, creates a closed-loop experience for users, enhancing the functionality of the phone assistant [5] Group 5 - Newray Energy (300593) is positioned to leverage its existing products and technologies in AIDC power systems, with potential breakthroughs in overseas customer bases [7] - The rapid development of AI technology is driving a significant upgrade in data center power supply systems, presenting opportunities for Chinese power electronics companies to enter overseas supply chains [7] - The company has established a comprehensive power supply solution from AC supply to terminal chip levels, and has a strong foundation in serving major international clients like Samsung and Nokia [7]