再次，持续坚持利率政策与资金效率并重，二者的融合性和互动性将进一步增强。货币政策例会强 调"强化央行政策利率引导"和"畅通货币政策传导机制"，旨在完善市场化利率形成机制，提高资金使用 效率，减少空转套利，同时保持社会综合融资成本处于低位运行，以提升货币政策传导效果和资金配置 效率。 首先，货币政策立场仍保持积极性和支持性，我国经济持续复苏向好的货币政策环境将更加宽松。 货币政策例会明确提出"实施适度宽松的货币政策"，强调通过公开市场操作、降准等工具保持银行体系 流动性充裕，加大逆周期和跨周期调节力度，引导货币信贷合理增长，促进社会融资规模与经济增长目 标相匹配。这意味着，在下一阶段以及2026年，我国央行将为经济回升向好创造更加适宜的货币金融环 境。 其次，结构性政策工具将持续发力，我国重点产业和重点领域将获得更大力度的金融信贷支持。货 币政策例会提出要"扎实做好金融'五篇大文章'"，即加力支持科技创新、制造业转型升级、绿色发展、 普惠金融和养老金融。结构性货币政策工具将进一步优化，用于引导金融资源更多流向国民经济重点领 域和薄弱环节。 近日，央行召开2025年四季度（总第111次）货币政策例会，对前三季度货 ...

在12月10日举行的货币政策会议上，美联储公开市场委员会以9票赞成、3票反对的结果通过再度降息25 个基点的决定。其12名成员中，两人认为应保持基准利率不变，一人认为降息幅度应扩大至50个基点。 会议纪要显示，大多数与会官员认为，如果未来通胀如预期回落，进一步降息是合适的。但一些官员认 为，此次降息后，应在一段时间内维持利率不变，以让决策者评估最近货币政策对就业市场和经济活动 的延迟影响，并有更多时间建立对通胀向2%目标回落的信心。 新华社纽约12月30日电（记者刘亚南）美国联邦储备委员会12月30日公布的12月货币政策会议纪要显 示，美联储官员对此次会议降息决定并未达成一致，对未来货币政策预期也存在明显分歧。 多名与会官员认为，美联储为应对就业下行风险而放松货币政策的立场是正确的。也有不少官员指出， 通胀走高风险正变得根深蒂固，在此情况下进一步降息，将被误认为决策者对实现2%通胀目标的承诺 在降低。 根据会议纪要，所有与会官员均同意，目前没有预设的货币政策路径，未来政策应根据最新数据、经济 前景和整体风险状况进行调整。（完） 会议纪要还显示，与会官员的总体判断是，受美国政府加征关税影响，通胀上行风险依然较高 ...

2025海外央行风云录：谁在降息，谁在"逆行"？ 3% Jan Feb Mar Mav Jul Aua Sept Oct Nov Dec Apr Jun 欧洲央行 & 英国央行- Feb Mar Mav Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Apr Jun 25 75 澳洲联储& 加拿大央行 Feb Apr May Jul Sept Dec Mar Jun Aug Oct Nov Jan O 美联储主席鲍威尔在年内最后一次公开市场委员会会议上释放鹰 派宽松信号。他强调，当前利率已处于中性区间高位,货币政策 无预设路径,后续将逐次会议做决策。 O 高盛预计,美联储将在2026年上半年放缓宽松节奏,预计1月暂 停降息后,3月和6月各降息一次,最终将联邦基金利率降至 3%-3.25%。 ○ 欧洲央行2025年共实施三次降息，欧元区存款机制利率、主要再 融资利率和边际借贷利率分别降至2.00%、2.15%、2.40%。 欧洲央行最新声明指出,最新的评估再次确认通胀将在中期内稳 定在2%的目标，并预计通胀水平将在2028年回归至这一目标。 O 英国央行全年四次降息，基准利率降至3.75%。 英国央行 ...

.3 中州國際證券有限公司 研究部 2025 年 12 月 31 日 星期三 港股晨報 環球市場指數 | | | 漲跌(日) | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 香港股市 | | | | | 恒生指數 | 25,855 | 0.9% | 28.9% | | H股指數 | 8,991 | 1.1% | 23.3% | | 中國股市 | | | | | 上海綜合指數 | 3,965 | 0.0% | 18.3% | | 深證成份指數 | 13,604 | 0.5% | 30.6% | | 滬深300指數 | 4,651 | 0.3% | 18.2% | | 其他新興國家 | | | | | 巴西IBOVSPA指數 | 161,125 | 0.4% | 34.0% | | 亞洲股市 | | | | | 日經指數 | 50,339 | -0.4% | 26.2% | | 韓國綜合指數 | 4,214 | -0.2% | 75.6% | | 富時新加坡指數 | 4,655 | 0.5% | 22.9% | | 歐美股市 | | | | | 道鐘斯工業指數 | 48,367 | -0 ...

摘要今日周三(12月31日)亚盘时段，国际黄金目前交投于4328美元附近，截至发稿，国际黄金最新报 4368.65美元/盎司，涨幅0.72%，最高上探至4372.97美元/盎司，最低触及4328.09美元/盎司。目前来 看，国际黄金短线偏向看涨走势。 特朗普还可能填补理事会空缺(共7席)，强化对FOMC影响。若鲍威尔留任理事(任期至2028)，或意在巩 固独立性，但史无前例，易被视作政治化。地区联储主席五年任命获批，保障轮换投票权，缓解对其聘 用遭否的担忧，增强外界对美联储独立性的信心。 【最新国际黄金行情解析】 隔夜美联储会议纪要落地，美联储内部继续延续分歧状态，甚至美联储票委内部都开始有了分歧，主要 的点还是对目前通胀的担忧，还有政府前期长时间停摆导致数据缺失，让自己本身没有底，从而导致目 前美联储官员整体对未来货币政策保持谨慎，美元指数在会议纪要前后小幅走出了反弹，但是目前力度 有限，黄金上个交易日回踩4324附近一路震荡反抽，欧美盘一度站上4400关口触及4404附近然后在晚间 走出震荡回落，美联储会议纪要之后最低回踩4329附近企稳反抽，早盘目前开盘也是延续反弹走势，今 日日内回踩顺势先多，关注43 ...

有色贵金属与新能源团队 | 作者： | 杨莉娜 | | --- | --- | | 从业资格证号： | F0230456 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0002618 | | 联系方式： | 010-68573781 | | 作者： | 胡彬 | | 从业资格证号： | F0289497 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0011019 | | 联系方式： | 010-68576697 | | 作者： | 梁海宽 | | 从业资格证号： | F3064313 | | 投资咨询证号： | Z0015305 | | 联系方式： | 010-68518650 | 投资咨询业务资格：京证监许可【2012】75号 成文时间：2025年12月30日星期二 更多精彩内容请关注方正中期官方微信 有色板块在铜带领下有所调整，但铝产业链相关品种跌幅不大，临 近假日建议减仓观望为主，上方压力区间23000-24000，下方支撑 区间21000-21300，可买入虚值看跌期权做保护。氧化铝现货价格 暂时企稳，在产产能环比持平，建议节前轻仓操作，上方压力区间 2800-3000，下方支撑区间2000-2200，可买入虚值看涨期权做保 护。 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-12-31 铜价回落后再度企稳 明年一季度展望仍偏乐观 市场要闻与重要数据 期货行情： 重要资讯汇总： 宏观与地缘方面，美联储公布12月会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，但就美国经济目前面临的风险进 行了深入细致的辩论。根据会议纪要，鉴于美国经济面临的各种风险，即使是一些支持降息的官员也承认，"这一 决定是权衡利弊后的结果，或者他们也本可能支持维持目标利率区间不变"。而在讨论本次会议的货币政策决定时， 委员们一致认为，现有指标显示经济活动正在以温和的速度扩张。他们还一致认为，今年就业增长有所放缓，失 业率截至9月份略有上升。此外，根据会议对资产负债表考虑的讨论，委员们一致认为，准备金余额已经下降到充 足的水平，委员会将根据需要开始购买短期国债，以持续保持充足的准备金供应。他们还同意取消对常备回购操 作的总额限制。 矿端方面，外电12月29日消息，印度最高法院于周一主动暂停执行其五周前做出的关于重新定义阿拉瓦利山脉的 裁决，该裁决曾将这座富含矿产的古老山脉向更广泛的采矿和房地产开发开放。在周一的紧急听证会上，由首席 大法官Surya Kant领导的特别合议庭表示， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall market shows a complex and volatile trend at the end of the year. Various factors such as policy, supply - demand, and geopolitical situation affect different sectors. For example, the stock index is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend before the end of the year due to sector rotation; the bond market sentiment is average with limited new information and is waiting for the release of official PMI data; different commodity futures also show different trends based on their own fundamentals and external factors [21][24]. Summary by Category Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market closes steadily. The index shows a volatile upward trend due to sector rotation. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and use a bull spread for options [21][22]. - **Treasury Futures**: The performance at the close is differentiated. The market is waiting for the official PMI data. It is recommended to hold short positions in TS and TF lightly and wait and see for arbitrage [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: There is still supply pressure, and the market shows a small - scale shock. It is recommended to lay out a small number of long positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use a short straddle strategy for options [28]. - **Sugar**: The international sugar price drops sharply, and the domestic price follows weakly. It is expected to oscillate near the current platform. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [33][34]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: There is still a lack of obvious drivers, and the rebound space may be limited. It is recommended to hold a light position before the festival, go short after the rebound, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price rises, but the futures price falls from a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips for the 03 and 07 contracts, narrow the 03 corn - starch spread, and wait and see for options [39]. - **Hogs**: The supply pressure decreases, and the spot price continues to be strong. It is recommended to wait and see [42]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price shows a narrow - range shock. It is recommended that the 05 contract oscillates at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [47]. - **Eggs**: The demand slightly recovers, but the price drops. It is recommended to go long on far - month contracts on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [51]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the price is mainly stable. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term range, go long on the 1 contract and short on the 10 contract for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [56]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended that the US cotton oscillates in the range, the Zhengzhou cotton oscillates strongly with a possible short - term callback risk, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [60]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment starts, and the steel price maintains a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain the shock trend, short the coil - coal ratio and the coil - screw spread, and wait and see for options [62][63]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They oscillate and wait for new drivers. It is recommended to wait and see mainly or go long on dips lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [66][67]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is repeated, and the price oscillates. It is recommended to oscillate in the short - term [69]. - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand margin is expected to improve, and the cost drives the price. It is recommended to go long on dips, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money put options [72]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: They oscillate at a high level. It is recommended to wait and see temporarily [76]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Pay attention to position management before the New Year's Day holiday. It is recommended to go long on dips, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [80][81][82]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation intensifies. It is recommended to control the position, go long on dips in the long - term, and wait and see for arbitrage and options [83]. - **Alumina**: It oscillates mainly after the convergence of the warehouse receipt registration profit. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [87]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: It oscillates at a high level. It is recommended to go long on dips, pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of buying spot delivery products and shorting futures, and wait and see for options [91]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It oscillates at a high level with the sector. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [94]. - **Zinc**: Control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [96]. - **Lead**: Pay attention to the impact of funds on the price and control the position reasonably before the holiday. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions and hold the rest, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [99]. - **Nickel**: The news of Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas boosts the price. It is recommended to treat it as an upward trend before a significant inventory build - up, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It follows the nickel price and runs strongly. It is recommended to follow the nickel price to go long and wait and see for arbitrage [105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It rebounds in the short - term and goes short on rallies in the medium - term. It is recommended to go short on rallies, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money call options [106]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume shrinks. It is recommended to be cautious, conduct long - polysilicon and short - industrial silicon arbitrage, and sell put options [108]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The subsidy policy boosts the sentiment. It is recommended to control the position and be cautious, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [110]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds take profits, and the price drops sharply. It is recommended to oscillate widely after the sharp drop and wait and see for options [113]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: The MSK's price increase slightly exceeds expectations, and it is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short - term. It is recommended to take most profits on long positions of the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly, and wait and see for arbitrage [114][115]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market trading is light at the end of the year, and geopolitical conflicts cause fluctuations. It is recommended to oscillate widely, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [117][118]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material contradiction is difficult to resolve, and the price oscillates strongly. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [123]. - **Fuel Oil**: The near - end fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are weak. It is recommended to go short, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [126]. - **LPG**: The upward space is limited. It is recommended to go short on far - month contracts, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost weaken, and the price drops from a high level. It is recommended to oscillate at a high level in the short - term, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene inventory build - up pressure slows down, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is recommended to oscillate strongly, conduct short - pure benzene and long - styrene arbitrage, and wait and see for options [136]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to oscillate widely in the short - term and weakly in the medium - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell call options [139]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [141]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand is relatively loose. It is recommended to oscillate, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [143]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is large, and the downstream product profits are differentiated. It is recommended to oscillate widely, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell both call and put options [146]. - **Plastic PP**: The PP inventory build - up rate slows down. It is recommended to hold long positions of the L 2605 contract, wait and see for the PP 2605 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage and wait and see, and sell and hold the PP2605 put option [148][149]. - **PVC**: It oscillates mainly. It is recommended to rebound continuously, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [152]. - **Methanol**: It rises strongly. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and sell put options on dips [154][155]. - **Urea**: It oscillates widely. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant policies and wait and see for relevant operations [157][158]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Number Rubber**: The global economic data continues to improve. It is recommended to go short in the short - term, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [162]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The chemical industry production slowdown continues. It is recommended to hold short positions of the BR 03 contract, conduct relevant arbitrage, and wait and see for options [165].

【12月31日美联储会议纪要：FOMC同意降息，官员对政策分歧连续两次会议出现】12月31日消息， 最新美联储会议纪要显示，FOMC在12月会议上同意降息，且就美国当前面临的风险展开深入辩论。 纪要表明，鉴于美国面临的各类风险，部分支持降息的官员也承认，降息是权衡利弊的结果，他们本也 可能支持维持目标利率区间不变。 一些与会者称，按其展望，本次会议下调利率区间后，目标利率区 间或需在一段时间内保持不变。 此次会议辩论中，官员们在收紧和放松货币政策上存在分歧，这对美 联储而言是不寻常的结果，且已连续两次会议出现。 本文由 AI算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 扫码查看原文 FOG hexun.com 和讯财经 和而不同 迅达天下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve has agreed to lower interest rates in December, but there are significant internal divisions among officials regarding this decision [1][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - During the December 9-10 monetary policy meeting, six officials explicitly opposed the rate cut, including two voting members of the Federal Open Market Committee [1][5]. - The meeting minutes indicate that "most participants" ultimately supported the rate cut, with some viewing it as a necessary forward-looking strategy to stabilize the labor market amid signs of slowing employment growth [1][5]. - Some officials expressed concerns about the Fed's ability to achieve the 2% inflation control target [1][5]. Group 2: Future Rate Expectations - Predictions suggest that the Federal Reserve may only implement one more rate cut next year and is likely to maintain rates for a period until new data shows inflation decreasing or unemployment rising beyond expectations [1][5]. - The next Federal Reserve meeting is scheduled for January 27-28, with investors currently expecting the Fed to keep the benchmark rate unchanged [3][7]. Group 3: Economic Data Impact - The recent government shutdown has significantly affected the statistical data regarding the U.S. economy for October and November, complicating the Fed's ability to make further judgments [1][5].