金融期货早评 【风险提示】海外经济数据超预期、特朗普政策超预期 重要声明：以上内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议 宏观：人民币汇率升至 6.90 【市场资讯】1）央行发布 2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告：继续实施好适度宽松 的货币政策。2）芝商所：计划于今年夏季开始推出个股期货。3）日本政府将于 2 月 18 日召开特别国会，举行首相指名选举。4）ADP 报告：截至 1 月 24 日的四周内，美国私营 部门就业人数平均每周增长 6500 人。5）美国 12 月零售销售月率录得 0%，低于预测中值 0.4%，前值 0.60%。6）美联储——①哈玛克：经济前景向好，通胀仍然偏高，今年无迫切 降息必要。②洛根：对当前利率政策的效果持"谨慎乐观"态度，更为担忧通胀问题。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】当前，国内宏观政策正以协同发力为核心导向，为经济发展保驾 护航。货币政策锚定宏观政策一致性，与财政政策形成深度协同，具体通过三重路径推进： 一是公开市场操作支持政府债券发行，二是"再贷款+财政贴息"优化资源配置，三是担保增 信分担风险成本，提升金融机构对企业的融资支持力度。同时，央行在货币政策执行报告 中重提引导短 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Group 2: Report's Core View - Zinc has insufficient upward momentum. The trend strength of zinc is 0, indicating a neutral view [1][3] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Price**: The closing price of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 24,505 yuan/ton, down 0.24%; the closing price of the LME zinc 3M electronic disk was 3,382 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [1] - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 42,807 lots, a decrease of 15,547 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 7,357 lots, a decrease of 1,925 lots. The open interest of the main Shanghai zinc contract was 78,739 lots, an increase of 1,001 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 230,682 lots, an increase of 1,328 lots [1] - **Premium and Discount**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was -35 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -23.73 dollars/ton, a decrease of 2.17 dollars/ton [1] - **Inventory**: The Shanghai zinc futures inventory was 34,235 tons, an increase of 2,971 tons; the LME zinc inventory was 106,750 tons, a decrease of 175 tons [1] - **Other Products**: The price of 1.0mm hot - dipped galvanized coil was 4,033 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shanghai Zamak - 5 zinc alloy was 25,710 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton [1] 2. News - The People's Bank of China will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy and carry out regular treasury bond trading operations to support the real economy and the financial market [2] - Ray Dalio warns that the US is on the verge of order collapse and civil war, and gold should account for 5% - 15% of the investment portfolio as a safe - haven asset [2] 3. Trend Strength - The trend strength of zinc is 0, with a neutral view on the zinc market [3]

新华财经北京2月11日电（记者翟卓）中国人民银行10日发布的《2025年第四季度中国货币政策执行报 告》显示，从金融总量、价格、结构等多个角度观察，2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果已逐步显现，助 力全年经济社会发展主要目标顺利实现。 往后看，前期存量政策的效果将持续显现，适度宽松的货币政策也将继续实施，加之货币政策与财政政 策协同还可叠加释放政策效能，金融支持实体经济的力度有望保持稳固，物价也有望进一步温和回升。 另据此次报告专栏，流动性总量宜从多元化资产负债合并角度观察，居民资产配置调整不意味着流动性 出现较大变化。 直接融资加快多元发展 物价呈现积极边际改善 报告显示，2025年适度宽松的货币政策效果逐步显现。期间金融总量保持较快增长，社会综合融资成本 低位下行，信贷结构也持续优化。 例如截至去年末，我国科技贷款、绿色贷款、普惠贷款、养老产业贷款、数字经济产业贷款分别同比增 长11.5%、20.2%、10.9%、50.5%、14.1%，持续高于全部贷款增速。 在受访专家看来，上年适度宽松的货币政策具有累积效应，存量政策效果还会持续显现。今年初人民银 行又推出了一揽子货币金融举措，这些增量政策也会和存量政策 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2026-02-11 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 所长 早读 中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》 观点分享： 中国人民银行发布《2025 年第四季度中国货币政策执行报告》指出，下阶段将继续实施 好适度宽松的货币政策，发挥增量政策和存量政策集成效应。灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 政策工具，保持流动性充裕和社会融资条件相对宽松。未来将常态化开展国债买卖操作，关 注长期收益率的变化。针对市场对银行存款"流失"的担忧，央行分析指出，居民资产配置 调整最终会回流到银行体系，并不意味着流动性状况出现较大变化。 所 长 首 推 | 板块 关注指数 | | --- | | 石脑油 ★★★★ | | 石脑油：近端亚洲石脑油溢价持续上行，重石脑油对轻石脑油溢价来到同比高位，引发市场 | | 对于亚洲重整市场利润担忧。供应端来看，东西方套利物流减少或是驱动本轮石脑油溢价上 | | 行的主要原因，一方面美国由于处理委内瑞拉重油导致其大量重石脑油留在南美本地，而出 | | 口向欧洲以及亚洲地区体量急剧减少，另一方面西方对俄罗斯以及伊朗制裁导致油轮运费不 ...

Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 11 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 重要事项: 本报告中的信息均源于公开资料，格林大华期货研究院对信息的准确性及完备性不作任何保 证，也不保证所包含的信息和建议不会发生任何变更。我们力求报告内容的客观、公正，但 文中的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，报告中的信息和意见并不构成所述期货合约的买卖出价 和征价，投资者据此作出的任何投资决策与本公司和作者无关，格林大华期货有限公司不承 担因根据本报告操作而导致的损失，敬请投资者注意可能存在的交易风险。本报告版权仅为 格林大华期货研究院所有 任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版 如引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为格林大华期货有限公司。 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | -- ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights the ongoing decline in loan interest rates, with the central bank projecting a decrease to 3.15% by the end of 2025, supported by various monetary policy tools [2] Group 1: Loan Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Loan interest rates are expected to decrease, with general loan rates falling by 12 basis points to 3.55% and mortgage rates remaining stable at 3.06% [2] - The central bank's actions, including reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions, are aimed at enhancing liquidity, with excess reserve ratios projected to rise to 1.5% by the end of 2025 [2] Group 2: Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies - The report discusses the shift from a proactive monetary policy to a synchronized approach with fiscal policy, emphasizing three modes of collaboration: supporting government bond issuance, coordinating credit supply and demand, and sharing risk costs [5] - The government is expected to remain the main driver of leverage in 2026, with limited room for significant policy rate reductions [5] Group 3: Observations on Liquidity and Financial Structure - The central bank suggests merging asset management products with bank deposits to better assess liquidity, indicating that changes in deposit structures do not significantly affect overall liquidity [6] - The report aims to correct market misinterpretations regarding deposit fluctuations, thereby minimizing their impact on bond market trends [6] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Policy Consistency - Concerns about the economic situation persist, with challenges such as weak domestic demand and external trade barriers highlighted [9] - The focus of monetary policy will be on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply, with an emphasis on structural credit support and green finance [9]

2026年02月11日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-贵金属及基本金属 观点与策略 | 黄金：震荡反弹 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 白银：高位回落 | 2 | | 铜：库存增加，限制价格上涨 | 4 | | 锌：上行动力不足 | 6 | | 铅：国内库存增加，价格承压 | 8 | | 锡：震荡调整 | 9 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 10 | | 氧化铝：小幅下跌 | 10 | | 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 | 10 | | 铂：持续震荡整理 | 12 | | 钯：窄幅震荡 | 12 | | 镍：印尼消息扰动再现，节前资金离场限制弹性 | 14 | | 不锈钢：二月检修减产频出，成本支撑重心上移 | 14 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 2 月 11 日 黄金：震荡反弹 白银：高位回落 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan023982@gtjas.com 【基本面跟踪】 贵金属基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 昨日夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨幅 | | --- ...

国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 2026年02月11日 商 品 研 究 | 期货研究 | | | --- | --- | | 纯碱：现货市场变化不大 | 48 | | LPG：地缘扰动仍存，基本面驱动向下 | 49 | | 丙烯：现货持稳，基差收敛 | 49 | | PVC：偏弱震荡 | 52 | | 燃料油：窄幅震荡，短期波动缩小 | 53 | | 低硫燃料油：夜盘短线转强，外盘现货高低硫价差仍处低位 | 53 | | 集运指数（欧线）：震荡市 | 54 | | 短纤：短期震荡市20260211 | 57 | | 瓶片：短期震荡市20260211 | 57 | | 胶版印刷纸：节前观望 | 58 | | 纯苯：偏强震荡 | 60 | | 棕榈油：基本面驱动有限，震荡调整 | 61 | | 豆油：报告缺乏亮点，区间震荡 | 61 | | 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕或跟随反弹震荡 | 63 | | 豆一：现货稳定，盘面震荡 | 63 | | 玉米：震荡偏强 | 65 | | 白糖：关注低基差机会 | 66 | | 棉花：节前预计维持震荡走势20260211 | 67 | | 鸡蛋：震荡调整 | 69 | | 生猪：旺季 ...

Group 1: Monetary Policy Insights - By the end of 2025, the loan interest rate from financial institutions decreased by 10 basis points to 3.15% compared to Q3 2025[3] - The general loan interest rate fell by 12 basis points to 3.55%, while the bill and mortgage rates remained stable at 1.14% and 3.06% respectively[3] - The central bank's excess reserve ratio rose to 1.5% by the end of 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from September and 0.4 percentage points year-on-year[3] Group 2: Fiscal and Monetary Coordination - The report emphasizes the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies to support domestic demand, with the government expected to be the main driver of leverage in 2026[4] - The central bank has shifted from a proactive monetary policy to a synchronized approach with fiscal measures, indicating a change in the sequence of policy implementation[4] - The government utilized a limit of 500 billion yuan in local bond reserves in October 2025, prompting the central bank to restart government bond trading[4] Group 3: Liquidity and Financial Structure - The central bank proposed merging asset management products with bank deposits to better observe liquidity in the financial system, indicating a structural change rather than a total liquidity reduction[5] - The growth rate of combined household and corporate deposits is closely aligned with M2 growth, showing no significant volatility in overall liquidity[5] - The central bank aims to shift focus from quantity targets to a price-based model for economic influence through interest rate adjustments[5] Group 4: Economic Outlook and Risks - The central bank expresses heightened concerns about economic conditions, citing challenges such as trade barriers and inflation risks, alongside domestic supply-demand imbalances[6] - Future monetary policy will emphasize macro policy consistency, with a flexible and precise counter-cyclical adjustment expected in 2026[6] - Risks include potential policy changes, slower-than-expected economic recovery, and the possibility of historical experiences becoming less applicable[6]

货币政策执行报告 2026 年 02 月 11 日 聚焦内需，聚力开局 ——2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告解读 事件：2026 年 2 月 10 日，央行发布 2025 年四季度货币政策执行报告（以下简称《报告》）。 经济形势分析：外部通胀走势和货币政策调整存在不确定性；要支持"十五五"实现良好开局 外部形势判断上，《报告》突出强调"外部环境变化影响加深"，新增"通胀走势与货币政策 调整存在不确定性"表述，体现央行对四季度以来国际环境复杂性的担忧加剧。相较三季度报 告"外部不稳定不确定性因素较多，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战"的表述，四季度报告更 聚焦贸易秩序变化对全球通胀及货币政策的深层影响。 国内经济形势评估上，《报告》更侧重内需，提出"把做强国内大循环摆到更加突出的位置"， 新增"支持'十五五'实现良好开局"，凸显政策层对经济开局的重视。《报告》同时强调着 力扩大内需、巩固经济稳中向好势头，并重申疏通政策传导、保持银行体系自身健康性。 政策基调：继续实施好适度宽松的货币政策，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种政策工具。 货币政策基调上，《报告》延续"适度宽松的货币政策"，重申对物价的重视与"灵活高效运 用降 ...