Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant rise in gold prices due to increased market risk aversion following President Trump's tariff announcements and growing concerns over U.S. debt sustainability [1][3] - Gold prices surged nearly 2% on Friday, with a weekly increase of nearly 5%, driven by safe-haven investments amid fears regarding U.S. fiscal challenges and trade relations [1] - Upcoming economic events, including the release of the Federal Reserve's May policy meeting minutes and the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, are expected to influence market reactions and gold prices [3] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that gold has successfully broken through resistance levels of 3250 and 3320, showing a clear upward trend, although it faces strong resistance around 3370 [6] - The current market is experiencing a corrective phase after previous highs, with potential for further upward movement if stimulated by upcoming news [6] - The expected market behavior for the following week suggests a continuation of the upward trend, with key resistance at 3370 and support at 3320 [6][8]

Group 1 - The recent rise in gold prices is attributed to renewed risk aversion driven by geopolitical tensions and concerns over U.S. fiscal health, with gold surpassing $3,300 per ounce [1][2] - The U.S. government's trade policies, particularly the proposed tariffs on the EU, have negatively impacted U.S. stock indices, leading to a decline in major tech stocks [2] - Moody's downgraded the U.S. sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, reflecting growing concerns over U.S. fiscal stability, which has increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [2][4] Group 2 - Copper and oil prices have also risen significantly due to geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar, with WTI crude oil settling at $61.53 per barrel and Brent crude at $64.78 per barrel [3] - OPEC+ is expected to announce an increase in production, which may influence oil prices further, while the copper market has seen a price increase of over 5% in May [3] - The short-term impact of U.S. tariffs on metal exports is becoming evident, but low inventory levels are providing some support for metal prices [4]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock indices fell across the board due to Trump's new tariff policy, with U.S. Treasury yields also declining and the dollar index dropping [1] - Gold prices rose significantly as investors sought safe-haven assets amid escalating trade tensions, with June gold futures closing at $3,365.80 per ounce, up 2.15% [1] - The international gold price saw a cumulative increase of 5.6% for the week, marking the largest weekly gain in six weeks [1] Group 2 - Trump announced a proposal to impose a 50% tariff on goods from the EU starting June 1, causing significant declines in European stock indices, with major indices dropping over 2% [4] - The German DAX index fell to its lowest level in two weeks, reaching a low of 23,325.5 points during the trading day [4] - Trump indicated that a 25% tariff would be imposed on mobile manufacturers not producing in the U.S., specifically targeting Apple and Samsung [5][6]

金价可能会继续对围绕美国财政困境、贸易关系和地缘政治的头条新闻作出积极反应。 当地时间16日，穆迪将美国的信用评级从"AAA"降至"AA1"，理由是对36万亿美元债务的担忧。"历届 美国政府和国会都未能就扭转年度巨额财政赤字和利息成本上升趋势的措施达成一致。"穆迪在声明中 称。 根据美国国会预算办公室CBO的数据，未偿还的美国国债金额从2007年的4.5万亿美元飙升至今天的历 史高位，而美国公共债务总额与经济规模的比率从2007年的约35%上升到现在的100%。 近一周来，债券收益率的上升给更广泛的前景增加了一些复杂性。30年期国债收益率本周回升至5%以 上。从历史上看，当长期债券的收益率上升到这一关键水平时，将对家庭和企业借贷利率开始造成影 响。令人失望的20年期美国国债拍卖需求疲软表明投资者对美国长期资产的信心下降，引发了人们对其 管理债务能力的担忧。 债券投资者对持有美国长债所要求的回报也越来越高。美国10年期期限溢价 —— 即投资者对持有长债 而非一系列短债所要求的额外回报 —— 已升至接近1%，创2014年以来最高。这表明投资者对加大未来 举债规模计划的担忧。"目前的危险在于，这种财政现象会自我强化 ...

| 佤邦尚未复产前,锡价基本面支撑较强。 | | | 震荡 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1、供给走强,需求走弱。2、进入低估值区间。3、需求端没有改 | | 工业硅 | 震荡 | | | 善、库存压力没有缓解。 | | | | | | 1、注册仓单量极少。2、首次交割在即,注册仓单量极少。3、期 | | 多晶硅 | | 货贴水现货,注册仓单意愿低。 | | 1、供给未现进一步收缩。2、显现库存持续累库,下游原料库存 | | 炭酸锂 | | | | 高位。3、价格低位下,下游仍维持刚需采买。 | | | | | | 现货处于旺季向淡季切换的窗口期,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 螺纹钢 | 震荡 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 出口可能转弱的潜在风险仍未探明,成本松动以及供需宽松的格 | | 热卷 | 看空 | | | 局未变,价格反弹驱动力不够。 | | | | | | 震荡 | | 铁矿石 | | 铁水见顶预期,但供给端暂时没故事讲,关注钢材压力 | | 锰矿过剩预期下仍有下降预期,且品种仓单压力重。 | | 新住 | 看空 ...

Market Overview - The market is experiencing volatility, with many investors selling U.S. Treasury bonds, leading to a 30-year Treasury yield of 5.089%, the highest level since October 2023, and a 10-year yield of 4.595%, the highest since February 2023 [1] - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.19% amid these developments [1] Geopolitical Events - A shooting incident involving Israeli embassy staff in Washington has heightened concerns among the Jewish community, potentially leading to increased investment in safe-haven assets like Bitcoin and gold [2] - Domestic gold jewelry prices have surged, with prices for gold jewelry from Chow Tai Fook and Lao Miao rising to 1008 CNY and 1004 CNY per gram, respectively, reflecting a significant increase due to international gold price movements [2] ASEAN and Logistics Sector - The ASEAN concept is gaining traction, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang set to visit Indonesia and attend the ASEAN-China-GCC summit, highlighting Indonesia's market potential [3] - J&T Express has captured a 30% market share in Indonesia, with plans for network expansion, indicating a competitive edge in logistics due to lower cost structures compared to self-operated logistics by e-commerce platforms [3] Retail Sector Dynamics - U.S. high tariff policies are creating challenges for retailers like Sam's Club, which has seen a 40% increase in domestic beef procurement to mitigate tariff impacts, yet still faces significant cost pressures due to over 35% of imported goods [4] - Local retailers like Hema are positioned to benefit, with their M membership store brand accounting for 30% of sales and offering lower prices compared to Sam's Club, potentially capturing price-sensitive customers [4] Gaming and Entertainment Sector - Pop Mart's Labubu toy gained global attention after being featured by David Beckham, leading to a surge in sales and stock price [5] - The company reported a significant increase in sales in Europe and North America, with TikTok followers rising by 68% [5] Steel Industry Insights - The integration of steel and financial markets is deepening, with the China Steel Industry Association noting the growing influence of futures markets on the steel industry [8] - Major steel companies like Ansteel and Maanshan Steel are expected to benefit from this trend as futures trading becomes more prominent [8] Corporate Developments - Dongfeng Motor and Changan Automobile are progressing with a restructuring plan, which is anticipated to enhance operational synergies [6] - Pharmaceutical stocks are performing well ahead of the upcoming listing of Hengrui Medicine's H shares, which are priced at 44.05 HKD, indicating strong market interest [6] Dividend Stocks - Following interest rate cuts, there is a shift towards high-dividend stocks, with banks and public utilities like Jiangsu Ninghu Expressway announcing dividend payouts [7] Gaming Collaboration - Zhongxu Future has signed a three-year cooperation memorandum with Kaiying Network, focusing on overseas business growth and the development of popular IP games [9] - The company reported a 44.9% year-on-year increase in overseas revenue, indicating strong international market performance [10]

Market Overview - The market experienced a broad decline on May 22, with the A-share indices closing lower, reflecting heightened risk aversion among investors [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 0.22% to 3380.19 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropped by 0.72% and 0.96%, respectively [1] - The North Star 50 index saw a significant decline of 6.15%, indicating severe adjustments in the market [1] Sector Performance - Defensive sectors such as military and pharmaceuticals attracted main capital inflows, while growth sectors like new energy and consumer electronics faced sell-offs [2] - The military sector led the gains, driven by geopolitical developments and strengthened foreign trade demand [2] - The banking sector showed resilience with a 1% increase, supported by improving performance expectations for regional banks [2] - The semiconductor sector experienced localized activity due to international technology cooperation news, which positively impacted related industry valuations [2] Investment Trends - There is a noticeable shift in capital flow towards low-valuation sectors, with institutional funds seeking safety in core assets [2] - The market's trading volume decreased slightly, with a total turnover of 1.14 trillion yuan, down approximately 746 billion yuan from the previous day [1] - The gold sector performed well, with gold prices rising significantly, reflecting a safe-haven demand amid market volatility [3] Hong Kong Market Dynamics - The Hong Kong market continued its downward trend, with the Hang Seng Index falling by 1.19% to 23544.31 points [3] - Southbound capital showed a net inflow of 3.88 billion HKD, indicating a preference for financial and energy sectors [3] - The consumer sector led the declines, with both discretionary and staple consumption indices dropping by 1.67% and 1.47%, respectively [3]

订阅期货大宗商品趋势 +订阅 相关链接 实时黄金订单流分析 全球避险情绪升温！黄金何时迎来明朗趋势？能否再度挑战高点？阿汤哥正在实时分析订单流，点击观 看 ...

撰写品种：镍 撰写时间 2025 年 5 月 21 日 回顾周期：日度 研究员:曹柏泉 咨询证号(Z0019820) 沪镍日度报告 2025 年 5 月 21 日，沪镍主力合约开盘 123450 元/吨，最高 123800 元/吨，最 低 122960 元/吨，收盘 123280 元/吨，跌幅为 0.05%；成交量为 107562 手，持仓 量为 59648 手。 2025 年 5 月 20 日，中国央行同步下调 1 年期和 5 年期 LPR 各 10 个基点，释放 稳增长信号，但美联储官员表态年内更倾向只降息一次，叠加穆迪下调美国主权信用评 级，引发市场避险情绪升温。 2025年5月21日，SMM1#电解镍价格123400-125650元/吨，平均价格124525 元/吨,较上一交易日价格下跌 50 元/吨。金川一号镍的主流现货升水报价区间为 2000- 2200 元/吨，平均升水为 2100 元/吨，较上一交易日下跌 50 元/吨。俄镍的升贴水报 价区间则为 100-300 元/吨，平均升水为 200 元/吨，较上一交易日持平。 截止至 2025 年 05 月 20 日，LME 镍库存为 201786 吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The extension of Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and the large - scale government spending cuts in the new bill have raised concerns about the expansion of the federal debt scale, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. The risk of the US dollar's credit has increased, which is a structural positive for the gold price. The Fed's latest statements maintain a cautious and wait - and - see tone, and the uncertainty of fiscal and tariff policies may delay the timing of interest rate cuts this year. In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices are still boosted by the safe - haven property and interest rate cut expectations. [2] - The tariff situation has reached a deadlock again, and the negotiations between the US, Japan, and the EU face great uncertainty. Against the background of the medium - to - long - term upward shift of the gold - silver ratio, the correlation between gold and silver price movements has declined. Recently, silver has mainly followed the upward trend of gold. In addition, silver's industrial demand remains strong, and its industrial attribute may maintain resilience. It is recommended to adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.1 yuan/gram, up 1.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8301 yuan/kg, up 29 yuan. [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 224,053 lots, up 1,559 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 383,991 lots, up 20,934 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 111,487 lots, up 4,976 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 175,940 lots, up 11,732 lots. [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 949,197 kg, up 8,398 kg. [2] 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 780.99 yuan/gram, up 7.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,269 yuan/kg, up 73 yuan. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.89 yuan/gram, up 5.88 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 32 yuan/kg, up 44 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 919.88 tons, down 1.72 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,054.89 tons, unchanged. [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 161,209 contracts, down 1,288 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 47,754 contracts, down 1,498 contracts. [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 32.82%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 26.97%, down 0.06 percentage points. [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.46%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.47%, up 0.45 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - A new tax bill extends Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and cuts government spending to pay for tax cuts. The market is worried that this will lead to an expansion of the federal debt scale, and the CBO estimates that it will increase the federal deficit by $1.8 trillion from 2026 - 2035. [2] - Two Fed officials said the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. [2] - The EU is expected to submit a revised trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations with the Trump administration. [2] - The Middle East situation is tense. Iran is evaluating participation in the next round of negotiations with the US, and Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down. [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2%. [2] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 758 - 805 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8,200 - 8,390 yuan/kg. For COMEX gold futures, focus on the range of $3,240 - $3,380 per ounce; for COMEX silver futures, focus on the range of $32.9 - $34.0 per ounce. [2]