【黄金期货最新行情】 | 1月26日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 1143.32 | 3.67% | 395962 | 215820 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【基本面消息】 数据显示，1月26日上海黄金现货价格报价1143.05元/克，相较于期货主力价格（1143.32元/克）贴水 0.27元/克。 地缘风险助金属狂欢，纽约联储罕见"询价"日元，金价上破5000美元关口；美国三大股指收盘涨跌不 一，欧洲主要股指收盘涨跌不一；美债收益率集体下跌，10年期美债收益率跌1.57个基点报4.225% 【机构观点】 大越期货：地缘风险助金属狂欢 金价上破5000美元关口 今日关注美国11月耐用品订单环比初值、或公布美联储主席人选。特朗普称美国重兵调往伊朗，地缘担 忧再起，纽约联储罕见"询价"日元，全球动荡，金价继续刷新历史最高。沪金溢价扩大至3.7元/克左 右。避险情绪再度升温，金银比极低凸显金价性价比，金继续走强。沪金2604：1093-1135区间操作。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff tension between the US and Europe has eased, but Trump's stance on the acquisition of Greenland remains tough, keeping the short - term risk - aversion sentiment high [2] - In South Africa, the phased load reduction continues, and the risk of power outages during peak night hours restricts the short - term increase in smelter operating rates [2] - The continuous strengthening of the US dollar against the South African rand partially offsets the local currency cost pressure, but a continued depreciation of the rand will suppress marginal supply in US dollars [2] - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the substitution demand for platinum in automotive catalysts by about 450,000 ounces this year [2] - Although global passenger car sales are moderately adjusted due to recession concerns, the rising penetration of hybrid and hydrogen fuel cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [2] - The IEA's latest hydrogen outlook confirms that the cumulative installed capacity of PEM electrolysers is expected to exceed 17GW by 2030, providing potential upside for platinum prices [2] - In the medium - to - long - term, the industrial logic of platinum and palladium dominates the trading rhythm, and the uncertainty of South African power supply and Russian exports, along with the implementation of new vehicle emission policies, make platinum more resilient than palladium [2] - The differentiation in the supply - demand pattern may continue to drive the "platinum - strong, palladium - weak" market trend [2] - For London platinum, the upper resistance is at $2900 per ounce, and the lower support is at $2700 per ounce; for London palladium, the upper resistance is at $2100 per ounce, and the lower support is at $1900 per ounce [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the platinum主力合约 is 744.70 yuan/gram, up 65.75 yuan; the closing price of the palladium主力合约 is 534.80 yuan/gram, up 35.80 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约持仓 volume is 10387.00 hands, down 277.00 hands; the palladium主力合约持仓 volume is 3179.00 hands, up 90.00 hands [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The Shanghai Gold Exchange platinum spot price (Pt9995) is 733.25 yuan, up 51.75 yuan; the Yangtze River palladium spot average price is 0.00 yuan, down 463.00 yuan [2] - The platinum主力合约 basis is - 11.45 yuan/gram, down 14.00 yuan; the palladium主力合约 basis is - 534.80 yuan/gram, down 498.80 yuan [2] 3.3 Supply - Demand Situation - The platinum CFTC non - commercial long positions are 9966.00 contracts, down 243.00 contracts; the palladium CFTC non - commercial long positions are 3003.00 contracts, down 342.00 contracts [2] - The estimated total annual supply of platinum in 2025 is 220.40 tons, down 0.80 tons; the estimated total annual supply of palladium in 2025 is 293.00 tons, down 5.00 tons [2] - The estimated total annual demand for platinum in 2025 is 261.60 tons, up 25.60 tons; the estimated total annual demand for palladium in 2025 is 287.00 tons, down 27.00 tons [2] 3.4 Macro Data - The US dollar index is 97.50, down 0.78; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield is 1.92%, down 0.03% [2] - The VIX volatility index is 16.09, up 0.45 [2] 3.5 Industry News - Trump said the US is deploying troops to Iran, imposing a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran, and sanctioning entities related to Iran's energy and shipping systems [2] - Trump said the US expects to gain "sovereignty" over the area of US military bases in Greenland [2] - Some Democratic senators will vote against the government funding bill, increasing the possibility of a partial government "shutdown" at the end of January [2] - Trump may announce the new Fed chair this week, and Rick Rieder's probability of being nominated has risen from 4% to about 50% [2] - The US January S&P Global Manufacturing PMI preliminary value is 51.9, slightly higher than the previous value; the Services PMI preliminary value is flat at 52.5; the Composite PMI preliminary value rises slightly to 52.8. All three are slightly lower than expected. The one - year inflation expectation in January 2026 is revised down to 4%, the lowest in a year [2] 3.6 Key Events to Watch - Atlanta Fed GDPNow economic growth forecast at 23:30 on January 26 [2] - US M2 money supply at 02:00 on January 28 [2] - Fed interest rate decision and monetary policy statement at 03:00 on January 29 [2] - US November trade balance (imports and exports) at 21:30 on January 29 [2] - US PPI year - on - year (%) at 21:30 on January 30 [2]

同时，邓智杰指出，去年开始，对于中国的投资氛围就已经在变好；从近期路演情况来看，外资投资者 对于中国股市的关注度进一步增加，其中，"十五五"规划建议提及的战略性行业等将是未来侧重配置的 板块。邓智杰表示，提振消费仍然是今年中国宏观政策的重点发力方向，预计一季度将会降准降息，同 时，医疗、教育等服务消费板块也将成为今年投资看好的行业。 国际现货黄金价格1月26日站上5100美元/盎司关口，再创历史新高，年内涨幅已超18%。 对于全年投资趋势的把握，邓智杰提到，今年全球经济的基本面较为乐观，预计全球经济能实现3%— 3.1%的增长。在此基础上，全球股票预计能实现8%-10%的收益率，其中，新兴市场的表现预计将更好 一些。 邓智杰指出，之所以给出这一收益预期，首先是因为全球主要经济体，如美国、欧洲等，都做出了相对 宽松的货币政策。预计美联储今年将降息两次，每次降息25个基点，年内首次降息预计将在5月份以 后，全年目标利率约为3%—3.25%。 "最近我们在做全球路演，我们问不同的投资人：最关心或赚钱最多的（资产）是哪一个？回答都是黄 金。"德意志银行私人银行部新兴市场首席投资官邓智杰日前接受证券时报记者采访时笑称。 ...

美国推行单边主义，渐渐侵蚀着美元作为"信用锚"的根基。截至2025年三季度，美元在全球外汇储备中 的占比降至56%，较历史高位跌落10个百分点，而黄金的储备占比却在稳步攀升。美国政府超38.5万亿 美元的债务规模仍在膨胀，市场对美元长期购买力的忧虑日益加深，"去美元化"步伐在加快。例如，丹 麦养老基金近期宣布，计划在本月底前清仓所持有的全部美债，全面投向黄金等非美元资产；德国化工 巨头巴斯夫将美元资产占比从40%压减至25%。在美欧对立加重情况下，将有更多欧洲资金作出类似选 择。 全球央行战略性购买黄金，则在不断筑牢金价底部。世界黄金协会数据显示，在2025年接受调查的央行 中，高达95%的央行预计未来12个月黄金储备会继续增加。2025年全球央行持续呈现增持黄金的趋势。 大多数国家都在增加黄金持有量，将黄金作为规避货币与金融危机的战略资产。其中，波兰央行购入 150吨黄金，将储备总量提至700吨，跻身全球前十。波兰央行行长亚当·格拉平斯基表示，黄金不受他 国货币政策牵绊，坚固可靠。 即便美国宣布暂缓执行2月1日对欧加征关税的计划，但其对格陵兰岛势在必得的强硬姿态丝毫未减。国 际社会与欧洲各国对美国单边霸权的 ...

2026.01.26 本文字数：1842，阅读时长大约3分钟 作者 |第一财经齐琦 金银价格继续"狂飙"。 1月26日，伦敦现货黄金冲破5000美元/盎司，最高触及5093美元，距5100美元/盎司仅一步之遥，距离 其首次突破4000美元关口仅过去100多天。伦敦现货白银更是一举升破109美元/盎司，再度创下历史新 高。 国内市场，黄金概念股1月26日开盘冲高，湖南黄金（002155.SZ）、四川黄金（001337.SZ）、招金黄 金（000506.SZ）、湖南白银（002716.SZ）等纷纷涨停。 南华期货贵金属新能源研究组负责人夏莹莹对第一财经分析称，黄金强势突破5000关口，是短期避险需 求、中期政策预期、长期货币信用重构三重逻辑共振的结果。预计2026年金价或有望挑战6000美元关 口。当前金价处于高价位、高波动阶段，投资者需做好仓位控制。 宏观面上，刘庭宇进一步分析称，12月美国非农就业人数低于预期的同时失业率也低于预期，虽然就 业、ISM制造业PMI和消费数据仍显疲软，但1月降息概率接近0，市场预期2026年有50BP降息空间。 长期看，随着美联储独立性弱化、内部政策分歧持续加剧，叠加赤字率上行不 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, silver showed strong performance and reached a new historical high, with London silver breaking through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday. Geopolitical risks continue, and market risk - aversion sentiment remains strong, driving up precious - metal prices. The upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman may become a short - term market focus. In terms of commodity attributes, the silver market is in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year, and the continuous inflow of global silver ETFs and the decline in COMEX inventory indicate a long - term strong trend for silver. It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly View and Strategy 3.1.1 Weekly View - **Silver Trend**: Last week, silver oscillated at a high level and reached a new historical high on Friday. London silver broke through the $100 per ounce mark early on Saturday, closing at $103.341. Driven by the external market, the main contract of Shanghai silver reached a new high of 25,838 yuan per kilogram. The weekly gains of London silver and Shanghai silver were 14.7% and 11% respectively, and the cumulative gains in 2025 were 148% and 129% respectively [7] - **US Economy**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US in the week of January 17th was 200,000, lower than the expected 209,000. The number of continued jobless claims dropped to 1.85 million last week, lower than the expected 1.89 million, the lowest level since November. The US GDP in the third quarter had a quarter - on - quarter growth of 4.4%, the fastest growth rate in two years [7] - **Inflation**: In November, the overall PCE price index in the US increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The core PCE price index also increased by 2.8% year - on - year and 0.2% month - on - month, in line with expectations. The market is focused on the upcoming announcement of the new Federal Reserve Chairman, which may affect expectations of the Fed's future interest - rate path [7] - **Interest Rates**: The yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond remained the same as the previous week, and the US dollar index weakened continuously last week [7] - **Supply and Demand**: In 2025, the global silver market is expected to have a supply - demand gap of over 100 million ounces, and the market has been in a supply - shortage state for the fifth consecutive year. As of January 23, 2026, the holdings of the world's largest silver ETF, SLV, were 16,090 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.1%. COMEX inventory declined continuously last week. LBMA inventory dropped to a historical low, and most of the silver is linked to ETFs and cannot be freely circulated, so the available inventory is tight [7] - **Price Difference**: The price difference between domestic and foreign silver futures narrowed last week, closing at 1,845. The gold - silver ratio in London spot market closed below 50, at 48.20 [7] 3.1.2 Strategy - It is recommended to hold AG2604 long positions in the medium term [8] 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The report presents the price trends of COMEX silver futures, London silver spot, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver futures, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver through charts [11][15] 3.3 US Economy - The report shows the trends of US GDP, PMI, new non - farm payrolls, and unemployment rate through charts [22][23] 3.4 Inflation - It presents the trends of US CPI/PCE and core CPI/PCE through charts [28][31] 3.5 Interest Rates - It shows the trends of US Treasury bond yields (short - term and medium - long - term) and real interest rates through charts [37][39] 3.6 Fundamentals 3.6.1 Global Silver Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - In 2025, global silver supply is expected to be 1.0306 billion ounces (a 2% year - on - year increase), and demand is expected to be 1.1482 billion ounces (a 1% year - on - year decrease), with a supply - demand gap of 117.6 million ounces (a 21% year - on - year decrease) [43] 3.6.2 Silver Demand - The report presents the trend of silver ETF holdings through a chart [44] 3.6.3 Silver Inventory - It shows the trends of COMEX silver inventory, LBMA silver inventory, Shanghai Futures Exchange silver inventory, and Shanghai Gold Exchange silver inventory through charts [47][53] 3.7 US Dollar Index and Exchange Rates - It presents the trends of the US dollar index, US dollar against the Chinese yuan, euro against the US dollar, US dollar against the Japanese yen, British pound against the US dollar, and US dollar against the Canadian dollar through charts [58][64][66] 3.8 Silver Domestic - Foreign Price Difference - It shows the trends of domestic and foreign silver futures and their price differences through charts [75] 3.9 Silver Basis - It presents the trends of domestic and foreign silver basis through charts [80][85] 3.10 Gold - Silver Ratio - It shows the trends of the gold - silver ratio in SHFE and COMEX through a chart [88]

行业周报 | 有色金属 避险情绪逐步升温，贵金属配置价值进一步凸显 有色金属行业周报（2026.1.19-2026.1.25） 核心结论 本周核心关注一：国家统计局显示，2025 年规模以上工业增加值比上年增 长 5.9% 统计局 1 月 19 日公告，2025 年 12 月份，规模以上工业增加值同比实际增 长 5.2%（增加值增速均为扣除价格因素的实际增长率）。从环比看，12 月 份，规模以上工业增加值比上月增长 0.49%。2025 年，规模以上工业增加值 比上年增长 5.9%。 本周核心关注二：美国 11 月 PCE 通胀基本符合预期，美联储下周料维持利 率不变 当地时间周五，美国商务部经济分析局发布了 11 月份的 PCE 物价指数。作 为美联储最青睐的通胀指标，11 月 PCE 通胀数据小幅上行，进一步偏离央 行设定的目标水平，但整体仍符合市场预期。具体数据显示，美国 11 月整体 PCE 物价指数同比上涨 2.8%，预期为 2.8%；环比上涨 0.2%，预期为 0.2%。 本周核心关注三：美联储褐皮书显示，近期美国经济活动温和扩张，但通胀 压力仍存 美联储周三公布的褐皮书显示，美国大多数地区的经济 ...

26日，现货黄金强势拉涨，继早间突破5000美元大关后，午后又突破5100美元/盎司，再创历史新高。 截至发稿，报5100.100美元/盎司，涨2.24%。 Wind数据显示，上周现货黄金价格上涨逾8%，今年以来，已累计上涨超18%，近800美元/盎司。黄金 股ETF产品今年以来累计涨近40%。 部分国内品牌金饰价格近期同样行至历史高位，克价突破1570元。中新经纬26日查询发现，老庙黄金金 饰报价1575元/克，单日上涨22元/克；周生生报1574元/克，单日上涨23元/克；老凤祥报1576元/克，单 日上涨23元/克。 正信期货研究院26日表示，考虑到特朗普政府的反复无常和难以预测，短期内市场有极大的不确定性， 避险情绪仍将延续，但需谨慎为主，建议观望或急跌轻仓试多，中长期以持多为主，关注金银比上涨修 复机会。 东吴期货26日表示，黄金白银强势上行的原因，一方面，特朗普就格陵兰问题采取的边缘政策引发了其 与北约欧洲盟友的外交危机；其次，特朗普政府再次抨击美国联邦储备委员会，叠加上周不同国家美债 的抛售，削弱了市场对美元的信任，也为贵金属价格提供了支撑；再次，央行购金仍旧是黄金需求的强 大支撑；进而有利于贵 ...

广州期货 贵金属价格或偏强运行 国信期货 金银或延续震荡偏强格局 消息面上，特朗普宣称将取得格陵兰岛美军基地"主权"，并考虑对古巴石油实施海上封锁，同时美国对 伊朗相关实体实施新一轮制裁并在印度洋部署航母，系统性风险急剧攀升。与此同时，市场对美元信用 的担忧持续发酵：美国财政部被曝已初步准备干预汇市，叠加IMF报告显示美元全球储备占比跌破 60%，这些信号共同动摇了美元资产的底层信用，强化了黄金的货币替代逻辑。此外，美国政府停摆风 险再起，也为市场增添了不确定性。整体而言，金银或延续震荡偏强格局。COMEX黄金价格在突破整 数关口后，技术上下一目标位可上看5100美元/盎司附近。COMEX白银价格在资金推动下仍保持强势， 有望挑战110美元/盎司附近。操作上，建议轻仓多单持有。 广州期货：贵金属价格或偏强运行 1月26日盘中，沪银期货主力合约遭遇一波急速上涨，最高上探至28226.00元。截止发稿，沪银主力合 约报27306.00元，涨幅13.19%。 美国明尼阿波利斯市1月24日再次发生移民执法枪击事件，参议院少数党领袖Chuck Schumer表示鉴于该 事件的严重性，如果拨款法案中包含对美国国土安全部的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by increasing risk aversion and weakening dollar credit, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and growing demand for gold investments [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Risk aversion has intensified, leading to a surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - The trend of weakening dollar credit is accelerating in the short term, supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - Central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to sustain upward pressure on precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The macroeconomic uncertainties abroad continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes in the medium term [1] - The weakening dollar credit narrative has become clearer since Trump's administration, enhancing gold's monetary properties [1] - A long-term bullish outlook on gold prices is maintained, with expectations for a continued upward movement in the price center [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent price corrections and to accumulate positions gradually [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]