张尧浠：美联储暗示年内2次降息、金价回踩支撑仍是看涨机会 上交易日周三(6月18日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，收复周二触底回升幅度，但走势仍运行在中轨上方，且下方还有众多均线支撑，以及看涨趋势良好， 基本面也具降息前景，经济也偏向减缓，地缘局势长期不定等，故此，后市仍有再度走强的前景，下方各均线支撑位置，也是可入场看涨的机会。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于3390.09美元/盎司，日内整体依然还是处于20多美金的区间内连续震荡走盘，于午间先行录得日内高点3399.69美元，并于美 盘尾进一步回落录得日内低点3362.53美元，最后有所止跌，收于3369.20美元，操作也是来回多空捡钱的行情，日振幅37.16美元，收跌21.49美元，跌幅 0.63%。 其美元指数，日图走势早盘虽遭遇中轨阻力，但近日回升动力转强，5-10日均线转为支撑，附图指标信号也维持看涨信号发展，短期有望继续走强，而会 对金价产生压力，另外周图也偏向筑底回升的倾向，也会利空金价； 不过，日图及周图仍处于200日及200周均线阻力下方，前景仍然偏弱，月图走势依然处于之前2年震荡区间的下方，布林带也开口向下，故此后市反弹空 间有限，金价也将在震荡调 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the impact of escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the Israel-Iran conflict, on international oil and gold prices, highlighting the potential for price fluctuations due to supply concerns and market sentiment [1][2]. Oil Market Analysis - Since the onset of the Israel-Iran conflict on June 13, international oil prices have risen, with Brent crude oil prices increasing by over 9% [2]. - Concerns regarding oil supply stem from Iran's current production of approximately 3.4 million barrels per day and an export volume of about 1.5 million barrels per day, predominantly to China [2]. - The potential for conflict escalation raises fears of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20 million barrels of oil are transported daily, accounting for 75% of oil transport in the region [2]. - Despite these concerns, the global oil supply situation remains manageable, with OPEC in a production increase cycle and an estimated 4-5 million barrels per day of idle capacity available [2][3]. - Long-term projections suggest that international oil prices may stabilize around $65 per barrel, influenced by inflationary pressures in the U.S. and geopolitical dynamics [3][4]. Gold Market Analysis - International gold prices have surged due to the heightened tensions in the Middle East, currently hovering around $3,400 per ounce [5]. - Over the past month, gold prices have rebounded from below $3,200 per ounce, with a potential challenge to the previous high of $3,500 per ounce [5]. - The increase in gold prices is attributed to rising risk aversion amid geopolitical instability and a declining U.S. dollar index, which enhances the valuation of dollar-denominated gold [5]. - Long-term trends indicate that gold prices are influenced by the global monetary system, central bank policies, and inflation expectations, with potential for prices to reach $3,700-$3,800 per ounce if they surpass the $3,500 mark [6].

黄金消息面解析 1、亚洲盘期间，以色列宣称已摧毁伊朗部分铀浓缩设施，并威胁将进一步打击深藏地下90 米的福尔多核设施。与此同时，特朗普政府向中东增派战斗机并 部署双航母战斗群，加剧了地区紧张氛围。 然而，黄金价格并未因冲突升级而显著上涨，纽约金期货亚盘下跌 0.50% 至 3370.59 美元/ 盎司，反映出市场对地缘风险的 "疲劳效应"—— 投资者更关注美 联储政策动向及经济数据对黄金的中长期影响。 此外，伊朗导弹技术的实际效果存疑（如高超音速导弹命中精度未获第三方验证），削弱了避险情绪的持续性。 今日操作建议：15分钟级别高抛低吸，止盈止损参考区间3360-3410。 2、美联储于 6 月 17-18 日召开议息会议，市场普遍预期维持利率不变，但关注其对年内降息路径的指引。 尽管美国 5 月零售销售环比下降 0.9%（创两年来最大降幅），制造业产出三个月内第二次下滑，但特朗普政府的关税政策可能推升未来通胀压力，导致美 联储态度趋于谨慎。 亚洲盘时段，CME "美联储观察" 显示，市场仍押注9 月降息概率达 62%，但利率交易员创纪录地押注鲍威尔任期结束后美联储将急速转鸽，这一预期在中 长期为黄金提供支撑。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - Overseas data shows the cooling of the US economy, but it's not enough to change the Fed's stance. The Middle - East geopolitical instability has raised market risk - aversion. Domestic A - shares are in a state of stock game, with expectations of index repair and attention to policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum and foreign capital inflows [1][2][11] Summary by Directory 1.行情观点 1.1 Overseas Overnight - The US May retail sales monthly rate was - 0.9%, lower than expected and the previous value, the largest decline since March 2023, mainly due to the drop in car purchases. The May industrial output monthly rate was - 0.2%, also lower than expected and the previous value. The Fed is more concerned about labor - market data and is delaying interest - rate cuts due to internal contradictions. Overnight, the US dollar index rose, US bond yields increased, gold slightly rose, crude oil rose, US stock indexes fell, and the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index dropped, with the offshore RMB exchange rate depreciating. Middle - East geopolitical fluctuations increased market risk - aversion [1][4] 1.2 Domestic Market Review - On Tuesday, the Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.4%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.12%, and the ChiNext Index fell 0.36%. The market showed a volatile correction. Although the index decline was limited, individual - stock declines widened. The market was mainly affected by news and in a state of stock game with sector rotation. Coal, public utilities, etc. rose, while pharmaceutical biology, beauty care, etc. fell. The Lujiazui Forum is being held, and policy news is to be focused on [2][5] 1.3 Important News - The US Senate passed a stablecoin bill. Trump mentioned upcoming drug tariffs. 95% of central banks expect gold reserves to rise in the next 12 months. The "Fed whisperer" said the Fed would have been ready to cut interest rates this week without tariff risks. There are ongoing developments in the Israel - Iran conflict, and China announced evacuating citizens from Iran and Israel. China's new - generation manned spacecraft had a successful test [6][7][9] 1.4 Today's Strategy - Pay attention to whether the US will directly attack Iran and the intensification of great - power games. Domestic A - shares are in a stock game. With the expectation of policies from the Lujiazui Financial Forum, the index is expected to repair. Focus on policy news' impact on index trading volume and foreign capital inflows when gold prices are high [11] 2. Futures Market Tracking - The document presents the performance, trading volume, and positions of futures contracts for the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes, including data such as closing prices, settlement prices, trading volume changes, and position changes [13][14] 3. Spot Market Tracking - It shows the current points, daily, weekly, monthly, and annual changes, trading volume, and valuation of major stock indexes and sectors. Market - style contributions to the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indexes are also presented, along with charts on market trading volume, turnover rate, and other indicators [36][37][38] 4. Liquidity Tracking - Charts on central - bank open - market operations and Shibor interest - rate levels are provided [53]

基本面： 周三（6月18日）亚盘时段，现货黄金探底回升并收复隔夜空头空间，目前交投于3396美元附近徘徊等待指引。周二金价在触及3366美元的低点后强势反 弹，收盘于3388.40美元附近，K线形态接近十字星，显示市场多空博弈激烈。与此同时，白银价格飙升至每盎司37.22美元，创下2012年以来最高水平，引 发市场热议。黄金的上涨离不开中东紧张局势的推波助澜，伊朗与以色列冲突进入第五天，地缘政治风险持续升温，为避险资产注入强劲动能。然而，美元 指数上涨0.7%带来的价格压力，以及美联储利率决定前的观望情绪，使得金价涨幅受限。 中东局势的持续恶化无疑是近期黄金价格反弹的核心驱动因素。以色列与伊朗的空战已持续五天，冲突范围不断扩大，德黑兰和伊斯法罕等地接连发生爆 炸，特拉维夫响起空袭警报。美国进一步加强在中东的军事部署，增派战斗机并扩大战机部署范围，令市场对地区冲突升级的担忧加剧。 美国总统特朗普的表态进一步为市场增添不确定性。他一方面呼吁伊朗"无条件投降"，警告美国耐心正在耗尽；另一方面又表示希望与伊朗的核争端"真正 结束"，并可能派遣高级官员与伊朗会晤。这种矛盾的外交立场使得投资者对冲突前景难以捉摸，避险情绪 ...

Group 1 - The total assets of Hong Kong's Mandatory Provident Fund (MPF) market increased by 3.8% to HKD 1.39 trillion as of May 31 [1] - After three months of significant net inflows into low-risk assets and outflows from high-risk assets, the fund conversion activity in May became calmer, with a net inflow of approximately HKD 440 million into equity funds and a net outflow of HKD 370 million from fixed income funds [1][2] - The top five asset categories with the highest net outflows in May were "Global Bond Funds," "Mixed Asset Funds (80%-100% Equities)," "Greater China Equity Funds," "Other Equity Funds," and "Mixed Asset Funds (60%-80% Equities)" [1] Group 2 - The top five asset categories with the highest net inflows in May were "Pre-set Investment Strategy - Core Accumulation Fund," "US Equity Funds," "European Equity Funds," "MPF Conservative Funds," and "Hong Kong Equity Funds (Index Tracking)" [2] - Year-to-date, the Hong Kong and European stock markets have outperformed, while the US stock market has lagged behind, with a cautious attitude towards Hong Kong stock funds [2] - As of the end of May, Manulife held the largest market share at 27.4%, followed by HSBC at 18% and Sun Life at 10.9%, with the top five providers accounting for over 73.1% of the MPF market [2]

Group 1 - The current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with Israel's airstrikes on Iranian state television and threats from Iran to launch significant missile attacks, raising concerns about potential conflicts [3] - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion, highlighted by President Trump's early departure from the G7 summit and the convening of a national security meeting [3] - There has been a significant increase in ETF holdings, with a reported addition of 136,000 ounces of gold in the last trading day, bringing the year-to-date net purchases to 6 million ounces, indicating strong investor confidence in gold [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this week, with market focus on Chairman Powell's speech and changes in the dot plot, as expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 rise, putting pressure on the dollar [3] - Gold prices are currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, having failed to maintain the $3,400 level, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The technical analysis suggests that gold is facing support at various moving averages and trend lines, with potential buying opportunities if prices stabilize above key support levels [4]

Group 1 - The geopolitical risks in the Middle East are increasing the demand for gold as a safe haven, with ongoing conflicts and military deployments raising market concerns about escalation [3] - The strong US dollar and weak economic data are suppressing gold prices, with the dollar index rising 0.7% to 98.83, marking the largest single-day increase in nearly a month, while US retail sales fell 0.9% month-on-month, the largest decline in four months [3] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision is creating a cautious market sentiment, with expectations that the Fed will maintain the policy rate between 4.25%-4.50%, despite calls for a rate cut [3] Group 2 - On the daily chart, gold prices rebounded strongly after hitting a low of $3366, closing around $3388, indicating a fierce market battle between bulls and bears [3] - The short-term resistance for gold is at the 3405-3410 range, while key support levels are at $3364 and $3345, which are critical for maintaining bullish momentum [3] - The four-hour chart shows a potential double bottom formation, with the 10-day and 20-day moving averages providing crucial support [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 6 月 18 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 上涨 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 中东局势紧张，避险需求推升金 价 | | 镍 | 2507 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 短线看弱 | 市场预期菲律宾将解除禁矿，上 游矿端承压 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 核心逻辑：市场消化中东局势紧张的消息后，昨日纽约金屡次跌破 34 ...

投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可[2015]84 号 商品日报 20250618 联系人 李婷、黄蕾、高慧、王工建、赵凯熙 电子邮箱 jytzzx@jyqh.com.cn 电话 021-68555105 主要品种观点 宏观：海外聚焦今晚 FOMC，国内债市博弈央行购债 海外方面，美国 5 月零售销售环比录得-0.9%，弱于预期并创下两年最大跌幅，主要汽 车、加油站、杂货和建材类拖累，表明此前关税预期引发的提前消费热潮消退，关注薪资对 消费的支撑力度。以伊战争进入第五天，特朗普敦促伊朗"无条件投降"、警告美国"耐心 将尽"，市场风险偏好遭受打击，美股下挫，美元指数回升至 98.8，10Y 美债利率回落至 4.37%，金价窄幅波动走平，油价涨超 4%，铜价小幅收跌。GDPNow 最新预测显示，美国 二季度 GDP 环比折年率或达 3.5%，显示经济在关税扰动下仍具韧性，关注今晚 FOMC 会 议的经济预测摘要（SEP）及利率点阵图。 国内方面，A 股震荡收低，两市成交额维持在 1.2 万亿上，红利风格相对抗跌，科创 50、 微盘股、北证 50 跌幅较大，稳定币、能源、海运等板块领涨，在内生修复动能偏弱、短期 宽松政策 ...