Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report, July 2, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,820 with a gain of 65, trading volume of 53,324 (up 7,010), and open interest of 193,529 (up 2,882) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,805 with a gain of 60, trading volume of 945 (down 342), and open interest of 8,232 (up 222) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,805 with a gain of 60, trading volume of 182,581 (down 6,222), and open interest of 560,465 (down 2,771) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20,085 with a loss of 75, trading volume of 2 (up 2), and open interest of 79 (unchanged) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20,090 with a gain of 40, trading volume of 2 (up 2), and open interest of 2 (unchanged) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20,075 with a gain of 30, trading volume of 7,387 (up 52), and open interest of 22,405 (up 382) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,163 yuan/ton, up 9 [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.90 cents/pound, down 1.25 [3] - FC Index:M: CIF was priced at 77.44, down 1.08 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 15 (up 5), 5 - 9 spread was 0 (unchanged), 9 - 1 spread was - 15 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 5 (down 115), 5 - 9 spread was 15 (up 10), 9 - 1 spread was - 10 (up 105) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,265 (down 140), CY05 - CF05 was 6,285 (down 20), CY09 - CF09 was 6,270 (down 30) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff cotton spread was 1,221 (up 169), sliding - scale tariff cotton spread was 582 (up 96), domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,505 (down 663) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 23, 2025, India's cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season was 5.466 million hectares, 531,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, with a planting target of 12.95 million hectares [6] - CAI's latest report shows that as of May 31, 2025, compared with last month's assessment, India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet had an output increase of 170,000 tons, import increase of 100,000 tons, demand decrease of 30,000 tons, export increase of 30,000 tons, and ending inventory increase of 270,000 tons [6] - As of June 29, the cotton planting rate in 15 major US cotton - growing states was 95%, 2 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average; the squaring rate was 40%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 3 percentage points faster than the five - year average; the boll - setting rate was 9%, the same as last year and the five - year average; the good - to - excellent rate was 51%, 1 percentage point higher than last year and 4 percentage points higher than the five - year average [7] Trading Logic - Macro - level uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices. If the US eases its attitude towards China, it may be bullish for cotton prices [8] - On the cotton fundamentals side, China's current low commercial cotton inventory may lead to a supply - tight situation before the new cotton harvest if the current de - stocking rate continues, which could make cotton prices oscillate slightly stronger [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to oscillate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure - cotton yarn market remains weak, with downstream buyers adopting a wait - and - see attitude due to large cotton price fluctuations. Spinning mills are suffering losses, inventory is accumulating, and production cuts are increasing. Short - term yarn prices are expected to be stable or slightly decline [11] - The all - cotton grey fabric market is in the off - season, with small domestic orders. Weaving mills lack confidence in price increases, and the market is expected to remain weak in July [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On July 2, 2025, the CF509C13800.CZC option had a closing price of 198, a gain of 88.6%, an implied volatility of 9.9%, and other relevant option Greeks [14] - The CF509P13600.CZC option had a closing price of 103, a loss of 34.8%, an implied volatility of 9.9%, and relevant Greeks [14] - The CF509P13000.CZC option had a closing price of 21, a loss of 81.6%, an implied volatility of 12.3%, and relevant Greeks [14] Volatility and Strategy - The 30 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly. The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9445, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5684, with both call and put trading volumes decreasing. The option strategy is to sell put options [14][15][16] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes graphs such as the 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and CF inter - month spreads [16][20][21]

Group 1 - The core of the article discusses the evolving dynamics of US-China relations, particularly focusing on the negotiations surrounding rare earth elements and trade agreements [1][2][3] - The US Secretary of Commerce, Lutnick, indicated that the US would lift tariffs if China removes restrictions on rare earth exports, highlighting the interdependence of both nations [2][11] - A recent high-level phone call between Trump and Chinese officials suggested a willingness to resolve issues such as student visas and reaffirmed the one-China policy, setting the stage for further negotiations [3][6] Group 2 - China has announced significant technological advancements in rare earth applications, particularly in the development of a rare earth permanent magnet motor system for hypersonic aircraft, showcasing its innovation capabilities [5][24] - The agreement reached in Geneva in June 2025 includes provisions for stable rare earth supply from China to the US, with the first shipment expected in July 2025, and outlines tariff reductions and sanctions suspension [9][11][13] - The article emphasizes that while the agreement provides temporary relief for the US, it does not fundamentally alter the US's reliance on Chinese rare earths, which remains a critical vulnerability for its military-industrial complex [22][20] Group 3 - The strategic importance of rare earth elements is underscored as both a bargaining chip and a technological advantage for China, which is leveraging its resources to enhance its military capabilities [19][26] - The article contrasts the immediate transactional approach of the US with China's long-term strategy of maintaining control over rare earth resources, suggesting a deeper, ongoing competition [26][17] - The development of advanced technologies utilizing rare earths positions China not only as a supplier but also as a leader in military and aerospace innovation, potentially shifting the balance of power [24][26]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent proposal by U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham to impose a 500% tariff on countries purchasing Russian oil, particularly targeting China and India, highlighting the contradictory nature of U.S. foreign policy and its implications for international relations [3][7][15]. Group 1: U.S. Tariff Proposal - The proposed legislation aims to pressure China and India to cease purchasing Russian oil by imposing exorbitant tariffs, reflecting a strategy to force these countries to align with U.S. interests [3][7]. - The U.S. has been criticized for its dual approach of supporting Ukraine while simultaneously engaging in trade practices that involve Russian oil, raising questions about its credibility [3][10]. Group 2: China's Oil Imports - In 2023, China imported over 120 million tons of oil from Russia, accounting for more than 20% of its total oil imports, indicating the strategic importance of this relationship for China's supply chain [7][10]. - China has diversified its oil imports, becoming the world's largest crude oil importer in 2023, with total imports exceeding 500 million tons from various regions, making it difficult for the U.S. to disrupt this cooperation through tariffs [10][11]. Group 3: Historical Context and Implications - The article references past instances of U.S. trade policy reversals, such as the 2018 trade war and the 2021 withdrawal from Afghanistan, suggesting a pattern of inconsistent U.S. foreign policy that undermines international trust [9][15]. - The potential approval of the 500% tariff could signify a significant shift in U.S.-China relations, moving beyond trade disagreements to a more confrontational stance [15][16].

今天郑棉继续上涨，国内棉花成交一般，基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交依旧偏清谈，下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,下游订 单仍然不佳。截至6月15号，棉花商业库存为312.69万吨，较5丹底减少33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国 内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万吨。进口持续偏少，也导致国产棉消化进度偏快，虽然库存偏低给 与价格支撑，但需求持续偏弱，再加上中美贸易关系仍不明朗，短期高度或仍然受限。操作上暂时观望或逢低做多为主。 (白糖) | 《八 国控期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月26日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な女女 | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | な女女 | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | ★☆☆ | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ★☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | 丁二烯橡胶 ★☆☆ | ...

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 25, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 closed at 13,625 with a gain of 40, volume of 47,727 (down 5,162), and open interest of 168,678 (up 5,130) [3] - CF05 closed at 13,605 with a gain of 50, volume of 943 (up 265), and open interest of 5,983 (up 264) [3] - CF09 closed at 13,645 with a gain of 35, volume of 234,985 (down 9,877), and open interest of 560,112 (up 18,170) [3] - CY01 closed at 19,990 with a gain of 120, volume of 13 (up 9), and open interest of 46 (up 7) [3] - CY05 closed at 20,055 with a gain of 1,505, volume of 1 (up 1), and open interest of 1 (up 1) [3] - CY09 closed at 19,995 with a gain of 90, volume of 9,169 (up 1,363), and open interest of 21,920 (up 576) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was at 14,938 yuan/ton, up 44 [3] - Cot A was at 78.40 cents/pound, up 0.85 [3] - FC Index:M: to - port price was at 76.55, up 0.73 [3] - CY IndexC32S was at 20,300, down 770 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was at 21,928, up 59 [3] - Indian S - 6 was at 54,000, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was at 7,450, up 70 [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was at 11,200, down 50 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was at 12,600, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was at 17,250, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 20 (down 10), 5 - 9 spread was - 40 (up 15), 9 - 1 spread was 20 (down 5) [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 65 (down 1,385), 5 - 9 spread was 60 (up 1,415), 9 - 1 spread was 5 (down 30) [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 spread was 6,365 (up 80), CY05 - CF05 spread was 6,450 (up 1,455), CY09 - CF09 spread was 6,350 (up 55) [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,050 (down 93), domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 1,628 (down 829) [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of June 16, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 3.125 million hectares, 214,000 hectares higher than the same period last year [6] - As of the week ending June 22, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 174,000 tons, a 501% year - on - year increase; the cumulative market volume for the 2024/25 season was 4.9075 million tons, a 5% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of June 23, 2025, the total cotton inventory in Zhangjiagang Free Trade Zone was 40,100 tons, a 0.21% year - on - year decrease [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton prices; if the US eases its attitude towards China, it could be positive for cotton prices [8] - With China's current low commercial cotton inventory, if the destocking speed remains the same, the market may price in the expected tight supply before the new cotton harvest, leading to a slightly bullish and volatile cotton market [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short - term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - After the recent rise in cotton prices, the pure cotton yarn market remained quiet with light trading and stable prices due to poor downstream orders and low procurement enthusiasm [9] - The overall market for all - cotton grey fabrics remained sluggish, with no improvement in orders and most weavers pessimistic about the future; some expected inventory to increase in July [9] Group 4: Options Option Contracts - On June 25, 2025, CF509C13400.CZC closed at 340, up 49.8%, with an implied volatility of 9.3% [11] - CF509P12600.CZC closed at 18, down 30.8%, with an implied volatility of 13.6% [11] - CF509P12200.CZC closed at 13, down 13.3%, with an implied volatility of 16.8% [11] Volatility - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.3355, slightly lower than the previous day [11] Option Strategy - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.9324, and the PCR of trading volume was 0.5796, with an increase in both call and put trading volumes [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [8] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - The TC negotiation remains unresolved, and the overall processing fee is still low. Scrap copper enterprises expect future supply to tighten due to the reverse invoicing policy, but the demand outlook is not optimistic. With a supply - demand imbalance and changeable macro - factors, the precious metal attribute of copper may be highlighted. It is recommended to buy on dips for hedging, with the buying range for the Cu2507 contract at 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 24, 2025, the main Shanghai copper contract opened at 78,340 yuan/ton and closed at 78,640 yuan/ton, up 0.45% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 78,410 yuan/ton and closed at 78,470 yuan/ton, up 0.04% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - On the previous day, the procurement and sales sentiment improved. Due to inventory clearance by holders at low prices, the premium continued to decline, and some low - price goods were sold at a discount. The expected premium may continue to fall today [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Fed has internal differences on interest - rate cuts. Geopolitically, Trump made statements about the Israel - Iran cease - fire and the US - Iran situation. China conducted 300 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on June 25 [3]. - **Mine End**: AIC Mines signed a $40 million prepayment loan and purchase agreement with Trafigura. BHP signed four long - term contracts worth about A$1.5 billion with Aurizon [4]. - **Smelting and Import**: Ningbo Jin Tian Copper imported over 5,000 tons of copper from the DRC this year, with expected increased imports in the second half. China's May scrap copper imports decreased, and Thailand became the largest supplier [5]. - **Consumption**: Jiangxi Tongying New Materials plans to invest 20 million yuan in a 10,000 - ton copper deep - processing project [6]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 3,325 tons to 94,675 tons, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 3,103 tons to 22,425 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory decreased by 16,300 tons to 129,600 tons [7]. Strategy - **Copper**: Cautiously bullish, recommend buying on dips for hedging in the range of 77,400 - 78,000 yuan/ton for the Cu2507 contract [8]. - **Arbitrage**: On hold - **Options**: short put @ 77,000 yuan/ton

| /// > 国経期货 | | 软商品日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 操作评级 | 2025年06月24日 | | 棉花 | 女女女 | 曹凯 首席分析师 | | 纸浆 | な☆☆ | F03095462 Z0017365 | | 白糖 | ☆☆☆ | 黄维 高级分析师 | | 苹果 | ★☆☆ | F03096483 Z0017474 | | 木材 | ☆☆☆ | | | 天然橡胶 | なな女 | 胡华轩 高级分析师 | | 20号胶 | ☆☆☆ | F0285606 Z0003096 | | | 丁二烯橡胶 ☆☆☆ | | | | | 010-58747784 gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | (棉花&棉纱) 今天郑棉大幅下跌，价格突破了前期窄幅震荡的区间,基本面暂无新的变化。国内棉花成交一般,基差稳中偏强。纯棉纱成交 依旧偏清淡,下游需求仍旧不足，市场交投不佳,纺企走货缓慢。截至6月15号,棉花商业库存为312.69万吨,较5月底减少 33.18万吨，消化仍然良好，棉花库存仍存偏紧预期。国内5月进口4万吨，创近10年新低，同比降22万吨，环比降2万 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Report Date: June 23, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 13,500, down 15; trading volume was 35,530 lots, an increase of 5,786 lots; open interest was 154,498 lots, an increase of 58 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 13,470, down 25; trading volume was 1,183 lots, an increase of 332 lots; open interest was 5,608 lots, an increase of 492 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13,465, down 30; trading volume was 184,987 lots, an increase of 38,955 lots; open interest was 515,356 lots, a decrease of 9,626 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 19,770, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 37 lots, unchanged [3] - CY05 contract closed at 18,550, unchanged; trading volume was 0 lots; open interest was 0 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 19,700, down 35; trading volume was 5,219 lots, a decrease of 931 lots; open interest was 21,159 lots, a decrease of 498 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 14,894 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,300 yuan/ton, down 770 yuan [3] - Cot A was 77.55 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21,892 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 75.82 cents/pound, unchanged; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,600 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spread - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 30, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 5, up 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 35, down 15 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 1,220, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was - 1,150, up 35; 9 - 1 spread was - 70, down 35 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6,270, up 15; CY05 - CF05 was 5,080, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6,235, down 5 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,154, up 15; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 444, up 15; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,592, down 776 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending June 12, 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly signing was 18,900 tons, a weekly increase of 38%, a 23% decrease from the four - week average, and a 56% year - on - year decrease; 2025/26 US upland cotton weekly signing was 62,300 tons, a 146% year - on - year increase [6] - 2024/25 US upland cotton weekly shipments were 46,400 tons, a 13% week - on - week decrease, a 24% decrease from the four - week average, and a 3% year - on - year increase [6] - According to CONAB's June 2024/25 production forecast, Brazil's cotton production is expected to be 3.913 million tons, an increase of 8,000 tons from the previous month [6] - Cotton spot trading was mostly sluggish, with strong market wait - and - see sentiment, and the overall basis remained stable. Downstream acceptance of high basis was not high [7] Trading Logic - Uncertainties in Sino - US trade relations and China's trade policies with other countries bring uncertainties to cotton trends. Currently, China's commercial cotton inventory is at a low level. If the de - stocking rate remains the same, the market may trade on the tight supply of cotton before the new cotton is listed, and cotton prices may fluctuate slightly stronger [8] - Recent international changes are significant. Rising crude oil prices may drive up the prices of all commodities. Iran's Parliamentary National Security and Foreign Policy Commission member Kousari said that the Iranian Parliament has concluded that the Strait of Hormuz should be closed, but the final decision lies with the Iranian Supreme National Security Council [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Wait and see [9] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The all - cotton fabric market remained sluggish. Weaving mills reported little change in recent orders, mainly small and scattered orders. Overall, production was cut, and the operating rate was low. The transaction price of grey cloth was negotiated according to order volume. Most weaving mills focused on optimizing cash flow [9] - The pure - cotton yarn market remained sluggish. Spinning mills' prices remained stable, and their willingness to reduce prices for sales decreased significantly. The phenomenon of production restrictions and shutdowns among inland spinning mills increased significantly, and the operating rate continued to decline [9] Group 4: Options Option Data - On June 23, 2025, the closing price of CF509C13400.CZC was 222.00, down 23.2%; the closing price of CF509P12600.CZC was 24.00, down 31.4%; the closing price of CF509P12200.CZC was 16.00, up 14.3% [11] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2915, with slightly lower volatility than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF509 - C - 13400 was 9%, CF509 - P - 12600 was 12.3%, and CF509 - P - 12200 was 15.4% [11] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.9702, and the volume PCR of the main contract was 0.6577. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased today [12] - Option strategy: Wait and see [13] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [14][21][26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Since January 20th when Trump took office, the ratio of SP contract price to NR contract price has strengthened from 0.39 to 0.43. Pulp's resistance to decline and the opportunity to stabilize after negative factors are realized are worth attention [66]. - The weak macro - environment suppresses both the upstream import and downstream export of pulp, resulting in relatively less negative impact on pulp in a weak pattern [66]. - The impact of the temporary shutdown of Finnpulp's Joutseno plant is limited. The long - fiber import volume has increased compared to the same period last year, which will offset the impact of the shutdown [71]. - The import, inventory, and consumption data of hardwood pulp show a trend of tightening balance, but hardwood pulp is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [71]. - The operating conditions of the domestic papermaking industry have an increasing influence on pulp prices, but the current domestic data is not consistently bearish or bullish [71]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Technical Analysis - Pulp - Rubber Spread and Commodity Turnover Rate - Since June, the communication between Chinese and US leaders and high - level consultations in London have eased trade relations, reducing negative factors for commodities. However, the reduction of negative factors for pulp is relatively small, and there is still an opportunity to enter the market when the spread reaches the previous low [6]. - Israel's full - scale attack on Iran this week led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The commodity turnover rate on June 13th verified that the 84% correlation between pulp and crude oil comes from consistent downstream consumption expectations. When crude oil price changes are due to supply, the impact on pulp is small; when due to consumption, the guidance for pulp price is strong [6]. 3.2 SP Single - Side - US Policy and International Oil Price - From June to now, the US economic policy uncertainty index has declined for the second consecutive month, reaching 432.6 points. Its 12 - month average increased by 77.1% year - on - year, hitting a new high since April 2021, with 12 consecutive months of expanding growth, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. - In May, international oil prices decreased month - on - month, reaching $62.8 per barrel. Its 3 - month average decreased by 23.9% year - on - year, with 4 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side [13]. 3.3 SP Single - Side - International Trade & Dollar Index - In May, China's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching $529 billion. Its 6 - month cumulative value increased by 2.1% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for SP valuation [19]. - In May, the real broad - based dollar index decreased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 116.6 points. Its 9 - month average increased by 5.2% year - on - year, with 15 consecutive months of marginal increase. The general cycle of the dollar index is 23 months, which is negative for SP single - side [19]. 3.4 SP Single - Side - Canadian Trade and Global Stock Market - In April, Canada's total import and export volume decreased month - on - month, reaching 128 billion Canadian dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 1.7%. It lags behind pulp prices and the negative impact has been fully realized [26]. - In April, the global stock market capitalization increased slightly month - on - month, reaching $119.9 trillion. Its 12 - month cumulative value increased by 7.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth [26]. 3.5 SP Single - Side - Softwood Data - The Joutseno softwood pulp mill of Finnpulp has temporarily shut down. In May, the inventory of European bleached softwood pulp decreased month - on - month to 238,000 tons, and consumption increased by 269,000 tons. The inventory - to - sales ratio was 0.89 times. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 4.7% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. - In April, domestic softwood chip imports remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp imports decreased month - on - month to 838,000 tons. The total long - fiber import was 843,000 tons. The 6 - month cumulative value decreased by 8.2% year - on - year, with 6 consecutive months of narrowing decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [32]. 3.6 Inventory - SP Single - Side & Hardwood - Softwood Spread - In May, the social inventory of pulp in ports including Qingdao, Changshu, Gaolan, and Tianjin increased month - on - month to 2.159 million tons. The SP inventory decreased month - on - month to 275,200 tons. The total of social and futures inventory was 2.434 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.9%, which is negative for SP single - side and has been fully realized [39]. - In May, the ratio of social inventory to futures inventory was 7.84 times. Its 6 - month average increased by 35.4% year - on - year, which is negative for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread but with limited amplitude [39]. 3.7 SP Single - Side - Import and Export - In May, the domestic pulp import value increased month - on - month to $1.906 billion. In April, the US pulp import value decreased month - on - month to $308 million. The combined value (with a one - month lag) was $2.214 billion. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline, which is negative for SP single - side but with limited amplitude [46]. - In May, the total export value of paper products from Japan, South Korea, and Brazil was $565 million. Its 3 - month cumulative value decreased by 5.4% year - on - year, with 2 consecutive months of expanding decline [46]. 3.8 SP Single - Side - Domestic Papermaking Output and Inventory - In April, the electricity consumption of the domestic papermaking industry decreased month - on - month to 838 million kWh. The 12 - month cumulative electricity consumption increased by 0.6% year - on - year, with 9 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is negative for SP single - side [53]. - In April, the finished product inventory of the domestic papermaking industry increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 77.57 billion yuan. The 12 - month average inventory increased by 5.6% year - on - year, with 13 consecutive months of marginal inventory increase [53]. 3.9 Hardwood - Softwood Pulp Spread - Import and Output - In April, the import of hardwood chips was 994,000 tons, the lowest since August 2023. The import of hardwood pulp decreased to 1.204 million tons, softwood chips remained flat at 9,000 tons, and softwood pulp decreased to 838,000 tons. The ratio of short - fiber to long - fiber import was 2.02 times. Its 12 - month average increased by 13.5% year - on - year, with 3 consecutive months of narrowing growth, which is positive for the hardwood - softwood pulp spread [59]. - In May, the consumption of hardwood pulp in domestic papermaking was 2.274 million tons, and that of softwood pulp was 534,000 tons. The consumption ratio was 4.26 times. Its 9 - month average increased by 7.1% year - on - year, with 7 consecutive months of expanding growth [59].

策略参考 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货豆类油脂早报（2025 年 6 月 23 日） 品种观点参考 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为偏弱，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为偏强。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货农产品板块 品种：豆粕（M） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：偏强 参考观点：震荡偏弱 核心逻辑：美豆产区天气改善，美豆期价震荡偏弱运行。随着中美贸易关系持续向好，市场情绪得到修复， 美豆出口向好的预期不变。此外，美豆压榨需求受益于生物燃料政策预期的推动，存在增量预期。这些因 素均对美豆价格构成有力支撑，美豆期价仍将保持易涨难跌走势。目前豆粕交易逻辑并未改变，来自于原 料大豆进口成本攀升的预期，令豆粕期价跟随外盘美豆反弹节奏。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 3 请务必阅读文末免责条款 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月(以前一日夜盘收盘价为基准) 品种 ...