Market Overview - The bond market experienced a slight increase last week (June 9-13, 2025), with the China Bond Composite Wealth Index (CBA00201) rising by 0.18% and the China Bond Composite Full Price Index (CBA00203) increasing by 0.15% [2][11] - The yield on government bonds remained stable, while credit bond yields showed a downward trend, leading to a narrowing of credit spreads [2][11] - The second round of China-US negotiations concluded without significant new information, and macroeconomic data appeared weak, contributing to the decline in bond yields [11][12] Public Fund Market Dynamics - There has been a significant expansion of credit bond ETFs in 2025, with the total scale exceeding 110 billion yuan. Numerous fund companies are actively applying for technology innovation bond index funds, with the first batch potentially including 10 companies [14][15] - The first public rental housing REIT expansion was completed, raising approximately 946 million yuan through the issuance of about 224 million fund shares, which has positively impacted the REITs market [13][14] Fund Index Performance Tracking - Short-term bond fund index rose by 0.05% last week, with a cumulative return of 3.87% since inception [3][17] - Medium to long-term bond fund index increased by 0.11%, achieving a cumulative return of 6.36% since inception [4][17] - REITs fund index surged by 1.98%, with a remarkable cumulative return of 39.45% since inception [10][17] Specific Fund Index Insights - The low volatility fixed income + fund index rose by 0.13%, with a cumulative return of 2.23% since inception [5][17] - The medium volatility fixed income + fund index increased by 0.12%, with a cumulative return of 1.51% since inception [6][17] - The high volatility fixed income + fund index saw a rise of 0.28%, with a cumulative return of 2.96% since inception [7][17] REITs Market Development - The REITs market maintained high activity levels, with the China REITs Total Return Index rising by 0.69% last week, driven by the performance of public rental housing projects [13][14]

Group 1 - The ten-year government bond ETF (511260) has attracted over 5 billion yuan in inflows, reaching a scale of over 8.6 billion yuan as of June 15, with good liquidity [1] - The ETF tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 10-year government bond index, maintaining a constant duration with an average duration of 7.6 years, aligning well with the current market environment [1] - Since its inception, the ten-year government bond ETF has maintained positive annual returns from 2018 to 2024, with a cumulative return rate of 34.63% [1] Group 2 - The ETF features T+0 trading convenience, the lowest fees among peers, transparent holdings, and the ability to conduct repurchase agreements [1] - Current market sentiment indicates a high probability of short-term bond market fluctuations, but limited downside risks, as China's economy transitions from high-speed growth to high-quality development [1] - Recent economic data suggests that China is in a "weak recovery" phase, supporting a narrow fluctuation pattern in the bond market [1]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is expected to maintain a narrow fluctuation pattern in the short term, with potential for a trend upward over the year [1][5]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment framework focuses on credit bonds as the base and enhances returns through interest rate bond trading, aligning with the evolving market ecology post-asset management regulations [2]. - The strategy of "buying on dips and selling on rises" is recommended for short-term operations, while maintaining a long-term perspective on credit bond investments [5]. - The introduction of government bond futures for risk hedging in new fund contracts reflects a systematic optimization of investment strategies in response to market changes [4]. Group 2: Risk Management - A rigorous risk management strategy is employed, emphasizing extreme diversification in credit bond investments to mitigate potential credit risks [3]. - The use of long-duration interest rate bonds allows for effective duration management, with a focus on quick trading to capitalize on market fluctuations [3]. - Traditional risk avoidance measures have been strengthened, including lowering product duration and incorporating credit risk mitigation clauses [4]. Group 3: Market Environment - The short bond market faced pressure in the first quarter, with a reported annualized yield of -2.89% for the two-year government bond futures [5]. - Despite recent monetary easing measures, the market's expectations for further rate cuts remain cautious, potentially creating short-term opportunities if cuts are realized [5]. - The bond market's inherent bullish nature allows for the accumulation of coupon income during holding periods, suggesting a strategy of maintaining positions while waiting for favorable conditions [5].

Group 1 - Huaxia Bank successfully issued the largest 5-year commercial bank technology innovation bond in the market [1] - Chongqing Three Gorges Bank successfully issued 3.5 billion yuan perpetual capital bonds with a coupon rate of 2.69% [3] - Sichuan Energy Development Group's 15 billion yuan small public offering bond project has been accepted by the Shenzhen Stock Exchange [4] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley indicates that New World Development's issuance of US dollar bonds suggests a potential reopening of the offshore bond market for non-state-owned enterprises [5] - A Reuters survey predicts that US Treasury yields are expected to decline in the next six months due to expectations of the Federal Reserve resuming interest rate cuts [6] - Jiangxi Bank plans to issue 4 billion yuan green financial bonds with a 3-year term [7] Group 3 - Huitong Co., Ltd. announced that the conversion price of its convertible bonds will be adjusted to 9.06 yuan per share [8] - South Korea's bond market saw record inflows of foreign capital in May [9]

美国财长贝森特：美国仍然是最稳定的债券市场。必须提高和延长债务上限，"难以想象"债务上限突破 后会发生什么。 ...

美国财长贝森特：以任何24小时为窗口来看债券市场都是不正确的方式。 ...

6月11日，银行间主要利率债收益率全线下行。截至发稿，30年期国债活跃券的收益率下行1.5个基点，报1.8540%；10年期国债活跃券的收益率下行1.2个 基点，报1.6455%；5年期国债活跃券、2年期国债活跃券的收益率也有所下降。 对于近期债市再次走强，市场分析人士指出，6月以来银行体系资金面持续宽松，资金利率走低。市场资金宽松预期下，进一步带动了债券市场回暖。 6月5日，央行官网公告称，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2025年6月6日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式开展1万亿元买断式 逆回购操作，期限为3个月(91天)。 央行开展1万亿元买断式逆回购操作后，近期债券市场再次呈现出震荡攀升的走势。 6月11日，30年期国债期货收涨0.23%，自6月6日以来已累计上涨近1%。10年期国债期货、5年期国债期货等近期也有所走高。 市场分析人士指出，近期行情多变且发展迅速，中美关税进展决定利率中枢，资金松紧与市场情绪雕刻利率曲线日度变化。 债券市场再次震荡走强 近期债券市场再次震荡走强，30年期国债期货涨幅明显，2年期国债期货整体仍处于震荡走势。 截至6月11日收盘，30年期国债期货的价格报12 ...

Core Viewpoint - Companies are experiencing anxiety over uncertainty, leading to a stagnation in capital markets during April [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - Investment banking activities prefer clear environments and will pause operations in the absence of clarity [1] - The level of activity in the bond market will depend on merger and acquisition transactions [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The convertible bond market is expected to be in a period of both offense and defense in the second half of 2025, with the valuation having a bottom and upward flexibility, and the upward space will increasingly depend on the performance of the equity market. If the equity market breaks through, the convertible bond valuation will resonate accordingly [3][73]. - With the accelerated conversion of bank convertible bonds, the allocation of underlying convertible bond varieties is limited. It is necessary to seek better solutions from the strategic and industry levels [3][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1上半年转债走势及估值分析 - **Market performance**: As of June 5, the year - to - date returns of the CSI Convertible Bond Index and the Wind Convertible Bond Equal - Weighted Index were 4.55% and 6.62% respectively, slightly higher than the median return of convertible bond funds (4.53%). The equity and convertible bond markets had a significant pullback in April due to Trump's tariff disturbances but then recovered to the highest point since the beginning of the year [12]. - **Market structure**: In the first half of the year, small - cap and low - rated convertible bonds outperformed, but they had a large pullback in April due to tariff policies and then quickly recovered their losses. The theme style switched from technology to financial real estate. From January to February, AI + robotics were dominant, and from March to May, the financial real estate style was stronger [13][18]. - **Trading volume**: The trading volume ratio of small - cap stocks continued to rise. In 2025, the trading volume ratio of small - cap stocks reached a new high. The "April decision" was completed instantaneously under the tariff disturbance and then quickly recovered [23]. - **Price**: Since May 2025, the median convertible bond price has remained above 120 yuan, approaching the stage high in March 2025. After the tariff shock and the ebb of the technology main line, the differentiation between high - and low - priced bonds was not obvious [26]. - **Valuation**: The 100 - yuan premium rate valuation has been fluctuating around 30%. Structurally, the bottom - support value of high - priced bonds was strong in the first half of the year, and the valuation tended to compress; the bottom - support value of medium - priced bonds increased slightly, and the valuation increased; the pure bond value and valuation of low - priced bonds both increased, mainly benefiting from the increase in conversion value [27][34]. 3.2下半年转债攻守兼备，估值下有底上有弹性 - **Supporting factors for valuation**: The equity market is not expected to have a deep correction, and the low - interest - rate environment will remain unchanged; the trend of supply contraction and undiminished demand remains unchanged; although institutional behaviors such as funds reflect a cautious attitude, the attention is still high; the concern about the downgrade of convertible bond ratings may be better than expected [3][73]. - **Potential suppressing factors for valuation**: The credit rating of existing convertible bonds is declining, and the scale of high - quality assets is decreasing, which restricts the institutional allocation space; the number of near - maturity convertible bonds is increasing, and the impact of time - value attenuation cannot be ignored [3][73]. - **Incremental funds**: The marginal incremental funds mainly come from securities firms and private funds [68][72]. 3.3银行转债加速退出下的底仓配置品种探索 - **Status of bank convertible bonds**: Since 2023, the balance and proportion of bank convertible bonds have been declining. As of June 2025, the proportion of bank convertible bond balances has fallen back to around 20%. The issuance rhythm has slowed down, and there have been no new issuances since 2023 [77][78]. - **Strategic level**: The valuations of convertible bonds with ratings of AA + and above are high, and the space for additional allocation is limited. It is necessary to appropriately relax the rating and market - value restrictions. In both the medium - low and high - parity ranges, the low - valuation style has long - term advantages. The valuation difference between new and old bonds is expected to further polarize [3][84][106]. - **Industry level**: The industries that can replace bank convertible bonds are mainly banking, power equipment (mainly from photovoltaics), and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (mainly from pork). The available bank convertible bonds with prices below 120 yuan are Xingye, Ziyin, and Qingnong convertible bonds, and their valuations are already high. Photovoltaic convertible bonds have long maturities and elasticity. Agricultural and animal husbandry convertible bonds are relatively stable, and their elasticity comes from the improvement of the underlying stock's fundamentals [3][111][122].

上周国内权益市场延续震荡走势，万得全A周涨幅1.61%，日均成交量维持在1.2万亿元附近。具体来 看，创业板、中证2000、和中证1000涨幅靠前。上周港股恒生指数和恒生科技指数均上涨2.2%。从行 业来看，上周通信、有色金属和电子上涨较多，交通运输、食品饮料和家电下跌较多。 事实上，自5月12日中美日内瓦会谈结束后，过去的4个交易周里，万得全A维持窄幅震荡，区间涨幅为 1.68%，区间振幅仅为2.84%。《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》公布后，双方承诺互相取消 91%的关税， 互相暂停24%的关税90天，仅保留4月2日以来10%的对等关税。然而从过去一个月的协议落实情况观 察，美方陆续新增出台多项对华限制措施，包括发布AI芯片出口管制指南、停止对华芯片设计软件 （EDA）销售、宣布撤销中国留学生签证等。接下来将举行的中美经贸磋商机制首次会议，意味着未 来中美沟通的领域将更加丰富。泓德基金认为，接下来的一周，全球资本市场会高度关注中美在英国会 谈结果。 从债券市场看，上周债市整体走出窄幅震荡状态，收益率"短强长弱"、曲线走陡。信用债收益率下行为 主。泓德基金分析，展望下一阶段，尽管目前市场对关税谈判逐步脱敏，但中美 ...