首席点评： 全球政策协同效应或将逐步显现 国家主席习近平出席中拉论坛第四届部长级会议开幕式并发表主旨讲话。习近平强调，当前，世界百年 变局加速演进，多重风险交织叠加，各国唯有团结协作，才能维护世界和平稳定，促进全球发展繁荣。 国务院关税税则委员会发布公告，自 5 月 14 日 12 时 01 分起，调整对原产于美国的进口商品加征关税 措施。美国 4 月未季调 CPI 同比上涨 2.3% ，连续第三个月低于预期，为自 2021 年 2 月以来的最低水 平；核心 CPI 同比持平于 2.8% 。 国内方面，一季度经济数据表现亮眼，显示出经济复苏的良好态势。 消费和投资成为拉动经济增长的主要动力，特别是服务消费的快速恢复，为经济增长注入了新活力。海 外方面，短期美元走强，使得新兴市场国家面临资本外流的压力。同时，欧洲央行等主要经济体的货币 政策走向也备受关注，全球货币政策的协同效应将成为影响未来经济走势的关键因素。 重点品种： 原油， 航运 ，股指 原油： 夜盘油价继续上涨。美国劳工部 13 日发布数据显示，美国 4 月份消费者价格指数 (CPI) 同比上 涨 2.3% ，环比数据由上个月的 -0.1% 扭转为上涨 ...

Group 1: Tariff Negotiations - The recent negotiations between China and the US resulted in a temporary suspension of most tariffs, with the US reducing tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% and China lowering tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% [3][4] - The current tariff reduction measures are temporary and will last for 90 days, during which further negotiations are expected [4][10] Group 2: Employment Impact - As of 2024, China's import and export sector employs approximately 180 million people, with 40 million in direct employment and 140 million in related upstream and downstream industries [2] Group 3: Industry Impact - The tariff negotiations have led to significant stock price increases in the electric vehicle supply chain and related industries in China [5][8] - The highest tariffs are still applied to syringes and needles due to concerns over fentanyl, which remains a critical issue in the negotiations [7] Group 4: Economic Impact - China's GDP growth rate for the first quarter of 2024 is reported at 5.4% [10] - Different scenarios regarding future tariffs could impact GDP growth, with potential reductions of 0.3%, 0.9%, and 2% under optimistic, neutral, and pessimistic scenarios, respectively [12] Group 5: Stock Market Impact - The current price-to-earnings ratio for China's Shanghai Composite Index is 13.8, indicating it is still in a historically undervalued range [20] - Following the announcement of tariff negotiations, the stock market showed positive reactions, recovering losses from earlier declines [22][26]

Group 1 - Recent easing of tariff policies and normalization of trade policies may drive markets back to pre-2025 conditions, with a positive outlook on U.S. stocks, particularly small and mid-cap stocks, as well as investment-grade bonds in Europe and the U.S. due to attractive yields and improving macro conditions [1] - The Chinese market has largely recovered to levels seen before the "Liberation Day" tariffs were announced in early April, with sectors such as electric vehicle batteries, construction machinery, home appliances, and pet food companies likely to benefit [1] - Rapid progress in U.S.-China trade negotiations has surprised the market, alongside the recent U.S.-U.K. trade agreement, indicating the White House's intention to alleviate trade tensions faster than expected [1] Group 2 - The recent volatility in U.S. local policies has led to market tensions, prompting a downgrade of U.S. assets, but a reversal of these fund flows may now be observed [2] - Reduced tariff uncertainty has lowered the likelihood of an economic recession, with investors potentially looking past the current downturn and anticipating a recovery in the U.S. economy and assets [2] - The U.S. government appears to be shifting its policy direction towards easing tariffs and focusing on growth-promoting measures such as tax cuts [2]

5月13日，A股三大指数集体高开，沪指高开0.50%，深成指高开0.98%，创业板指高开1.29%，超4700家 公司上涨。 消费电子、港口航运等板块指数涨幅居前。成分股中，宁波海运（600798.SH）涨停，国航远洋 （833171）涨超9%，宁波远洋（601022.SH）、中远海控（601919.SH）、连云港（601008.SH）纷纷高 开。此前集运指数（欧线）主力合约日内涨超10%。 粤开证券则表示，从长期看，A股、港股将从集中定价关税冲突的阶段，逐步转向定价经济基本面的阶 段，外部冲击逐步减弱、科技叙事持续演绎加上国内政策持续发力，将会加速经济复苏进程，进而带动 A股、港股长期上涨。 消息面上，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》于昨日盘后发布，市场普遍认为关税的下降幅度和节奏明 显超市场预期。 景顺长城投研团队分析称，本次中美谈判的关税下调幅度大超市场预期，背后原因可能包括美国供应链 对中国的依赖，以及我国综合国力的提升。 市场风险偏好将提升 多家机构均认为会谈结果将提振市场短期风险偏好。中国银河宏观团队分析称，中美贸易谈判出现实质 性进展将显著提升市场对中国资产的风险偏好，关税的大幅下调也对中国经济基 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The external environment is favorable for Treasury bond futures, but considering the relatively low current Treasury bond yields, the stable recovery of the Chinese economy, and the possibility of repeated tariff adjustments, it is recommended to remain cautious [7][8]. - Despite the impact of tariffs on the domestic economic recovery rhythm and the increase in global recession risks, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10]. - Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the increasing risk of global economic recession under tariff disturbances, and the possible passive easing of monetary policies of various countries, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [13]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, considering the industrial supply - demand situation, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [15]. - For iron ore, considering the improvement of the supply - demand pattern, valuation, and technical aspects, investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels and pay attention to position management [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, considering the industrial supply - demand situation and technical aspects, investors can focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds and pay attention to position management [20]. - For ferroalloys, considering the supply - demand situation, inventory, and cost, for manganese silicon, attention can be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels; for silicon iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom range, and attention can also be paid to the opportunities of out - of - the - money call options at low levels [23]. - For crude oil, considering the OPEC+ production increase and the positive impact of Sino - US talks, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - For fuel oil, considering the possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia and the signing of tariff friction agreements, it is considered to take a long - biased operation on the main fuel oil contract [27][28]. - Synthetic rubber and natural rubber are expected to be in a weak and volatile state; PVC is expected to be in a bottom - oscillating state; urea requires attention to export changes; PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; PTA is expected to have a small price repair space; ethylene glycol is expected to have a small upward price space; short - fiber and bottle - chip are expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side; soda ash may have short - term disk adjustments; glass has no obvious driving force in the short term; caustic soda may have certain driving forces due to device maintenance; pulp is in a weak pattern; lithium carbonate is expected to be weak; copper is expected to be strong; tin is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly; nickel is recommended to be observed cautiously; industrial silicon and polysilicon are expected to be bearish; soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil have different investment opportunities; cotton is recommended to be observed; sugar is expected to oscillate within a range; apples are recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections; pigs are expected to be weak first and then stable and strong; eggs are recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads; corn and starch are recommended to be observed temporarily; logs have no obvious driving force [29][30][32][36][38][40][42][43][44][45][47][49][52][54][56][58][60][61][63][65][68][69][73][76][78][81][83][86] Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, most Treasury bond futures closed down. The central bank conducted 77 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 9, with a net investment of 77 billion yuan on the same day [5]. - The central bank will implement a moderately loose monetary policy. China's April export growth slowed down, and the trade surplus decreased. The Sino - US economic and trade talks reached important consensus [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [9]. Stock Index Futures - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed trends. China's April CPI and core CPI showed certain changes, and PPI continued to decline [10]. - Although the domestic economy is stable, tariffs disrupt the economic recovery rhythm. However, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is considered to go long on stock index futures [10][11]. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the gold main contract closed down, and the silver main contract closed up. Due to the complex global situation, the long - term bullish trend of precious metals will continue, and it is recommended to go long on gold futures on dips [12][13][14]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell significantly. The real - estate industry's downward trend suppresses rebar prices, but short - term peak - season demand may provide support. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [15][16]. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fell slightly. The improvement of the supply - demand pattern supports the price. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities at low levels [17][18][19]. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The supply of coking coal is loose, and the price of coke is under pressure. It is recommended to focus on shorting opportunities on rebounds [20][21]. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the manganese silicon main contract rose, and the silicon iron main contract rose. The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. Different investment opportunities are recommended for manganese silicon and silicon iron [22][23]. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward. OPEC+ will increase production from May to June, and the Sino - US talks are positive for crude oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [24][25][26]. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and oscillated upward. The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the signing of tariff agreements is positive for fuel oil. It is considered to take a long - biased operation [27][28]. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract rose. The supply pressure continues, the demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [29][30]. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract fell, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose. The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected to oscillate weakly [30][31]. PVC - On the previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply pressure eases marginally, the demand recovers weakly, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - On the previous trading day, the urea main contract rose. The demand increase may not offset the supply elasticity. Attention should be paid to export changes [36][37]. PX - On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose. The short - term crude oil price is under pressure, and PX is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [38][39]. PTA - On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose. The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA improves, and the cost is expected to turn better. It is expected to have a small price repair space [40]. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract rose. The short - term supply increase of ethylene glycol is not obvious, and the inventory may decline slightly. It is expected to have a small upward price space [41][42]. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose. The downstream terminal demand warms up slightly, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust following the cost side [43]. Bottle - Chip - On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose. The raw material price oscillates and adjusts, and the bottle - chip is expected to oscillate following the cost side [44]. Soda Ash - On the previous trading day, the soda ash 2509 main contract fell. The supply is still high, and the raw material price is falling. There may be short - term disk adjustments [45][46]. Glass - On the previous trading day, the glass 2509 main contract fell. There is no obvious driving force in the actual supply - demand fundamentals, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term [47][48]. Caustic Soda - On the previous trading day, the caustic soda 2509 main contract fell. The demand for caustic soda is limited, and some devices will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have certain driving forces [49][50]. Pulp - On the previous trading day, the pulp 2507 main contract rose. The supply is high, the downstream consumption is weak, and the market is in a weak pattern [51][52][53]. Lithium Carbonate - On the previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract fell. The supply - demand surplus situation has not changed significantly, and it is expected to be weak [54][55]. Copper - On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated slightly. The Sino - US talks achieved important results, and copper is expected to be strong. It is considered to take a long - biased operation on the Shanghai copper main contract [56][57]. Tin - On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose. The supply is expected to be loose, and the price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate bearishly [58][59]. Nickel - On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose. The supply is tightened at the mine end, but the demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to observe cautiously [60]. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon - On the previous trading day, the industrial silicon main contract fell, and the polysilicon main contract rose. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and the price of polysilicon is expected to continue to decline. It is considered bearish [61][62]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - On the previous trading day, the soybean meal main contract fell, and the soybean oil main contract rose. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and different investment opportunities are recommended for soybean oil and soybean meal [63][64]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil prices are under pressure due to expected production and inventory increases. It is recommended to focus on the opportunity to widen the soybean - palm oil spread [65][66][67]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed prices rose. In China, the situation of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil inventory is different. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities for rapeseed meal after corrections [68]. Cotton - Domestic and foreign cotton prices oscillated. The market is waiting for the USDA report and Sino - US negotiation news. The demand in the industrial chain is weak, and it is recommended to observe [69][70][71]. Sugar - Domestic sugar prices oscillated at a low level, and foreign raw sugar prices rose. The international sugar market is mixed, and the domestic sugar is expected to oscillate within a range [73][74][75]. Apples - Domestic apple futures oscillated weakly. The production is expected to decrease this year, and the inventory is low. It is recommended to focus on buying opportunities after corrections [76][77]. Pigs - The national average pig price was stable. The supply may increase in the short term, and the price is expected to be weak first and then stable and strong. It is recommended to observe temporarily [78][79][80]. Eggs - The average egg price was stable. The supply is expected to increase in May, and it is recommended to gradually take profit on reverse spreads [81][82]. Corn and Starch - On the previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract was flat. The domestic corn supply surplus eases slightly, and the short - term supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to observe temporarily [83][84][85]. Logs - On the previous trading day, the log 2507 main contract rose slightly. The import volume decreased, and the market has no obvious driving force [86][87][88]

泰国央行行长：经济复苏将需要很长时间。 ...

Group 1 - Canada's trade deficit narrowed to 5.06 billion CAD in March 2025, significantly lower than the expected 15.6 billion CAD, indicating a decline in trade activity with the U.S. due to tariffs [1][8] - The imposition of a 25% tariff on Canadian steel and aluminum by the U.S. led to a 2.9% drop in imports from the U.S. and a 6.6% decrease in exports to the U.S. in March [2][8] - Despite a 10.2% year-over-year increase in exports, the total export value fell to 69.9 billion CAD in March, marking the second consecutive month of decline, primarily due to falling commodity prices [5][6] Group 2 - Total imports decreased to 70.4 billion CAD in March, a decline of 1.4% from February, with significant drops in metal and non-metal mineral products (down 15.8%) and energy products (down 18.8%) [6][8] - The economic outlook remains concerning, with a recorded contraction of 0.2% in February and potential growth in March not alleviating the overall pessimism [8][11] - The trade tensions have led to increased pressure on Canadian consumers, with potential price hikes on imported goods and risks of layoffs or hiring freezes in domestic manufacturing [11]

Core Viewpoint - French President Macron stated that without economic recovery, Syria cannot achieve stability [1] Group 1 - The statement emphasizes the interconnection between economic conditions and political stability in Syria [1] - Macron's remarks suggest that international efforts should focus on economic support to facilitate recovery in Syria [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported an adjusted EBITDA of $40 million, reflecting a 3.2% decrease in pesos, translating to $36 per ton [9][20] - Net profit attributable to owners of the company totaled ARS 21.5 billion, down from ARS 79 billion in the first quarter of 2024, primarily due to lower financial results [23] - The net debt increased sequentially to ARS 187 billion, with a debt to EBITDA ratio of 0.96x, slightly up from 0.89x at the end of 2024 [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The Cement segment experienced a 10.9% revenue drop despite an 8.9% year-over-year increase in volumes, attributed to a softer pricing environment [14] - Concrete revenues declined by 1.4%, with a 22.8% increase in volumes offset by price pressures [14] - The Aggregates segment saw a 14.2% revenue decline despite a 29% increase in sales volumes, impacted by a weak market and pricing dynamics [15][22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Cement consumption showed improvement, with April figures indicating a 28% year-over-year increase and a 14% sequential increase [12][8] - The Argentine economy is projected to grow approximately 5% in 2025, following a 1.7% contraction in 2024 [11][7] - The construction sector is expected to benefit from this economic growth, potentially fueling a more robust recovery [7] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company remains focused on driving efficiency and controlling costs to protect profitability while delivering quality products and services [29] - The management expressed optimism about the recovery in the construction sector and the overall economy, anticipating a more sustained recovery in the coming quarters [27][28] - The company is also looking to capitalize on investment projects that have been on hold due to previous economic uncertainties [28] Management Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the industry is still in the early stages of recovery, with expectations for a stronger performance as the year progresses [12][28] - The stabilization of economic conditions and easing of capital controls are seen as critical steps for long-term benefits [28] - The management is optimistic about the potential for growth in cement volumes, expecting double-digit growth in 2025 [42] Other Important Information - The company invested ARS 11.1 billion in capital expenditures during the quarter, mainly for ongoing projects [24] - SG&A expenses decreased by 7.8%, primarily due to lower marketing and IT expenditures [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Competitive dynamics and market share - Management indicated that market share dynamics are in line with their strategy, and climate issues impacted different regions [32][34] Question: Pricing power and cement volume expectations - Management expects pricing to remain around $115 per ton and anticipates a year-over-year growth in cement volumes in the range of 15% to 20% [39][42] Question: Volume outlook and project backlogs - Management is optimistic about upcoming projects, particularly in the renewable energy and public works sectors, which are expected to drive demand [48]

据每日经济新闻报道，美国有线电视新闻网民调机构进行的一项最新民调显示，59%的民众认为美国总统特朗普的政策 恶化了美国经济状况，这一比例较3月份的51%有所上升。调查还发现，美国人对本国经济状况普遍不满，对白宫新贸易 政策缺乏热情。60%的民众称特朗普政策提高了所在社区生活成本，仅12%的民众认为其政策有助于降低物价。此外，仅 有34%的美国人对经济持乐观态度，29%的人感到悲观，37%的人表示担忧。 特朗普（资料图） 曾任美国总统高级经济顾问、现任纽约大学商学院经济学教授的劳伦斯·怀特指出，特朗普政府采取的经济政策违背了基 本经济原则。"各国应专注于最具效率的产业，通过贸易互补优势。关税只会推高成本，削弱福祉、收入与财富。这不仅 未能实现双赢，反而导致多方受损。"在全球供应链高度互联的背景下，业内人士和专家普遍担忧，持续升级的贸易壁垒 将对经济复苏和消费者福利产生长期负面影响。他们呼吁政府采取更加理性、可持续的经济政策以减缓冲击。 贸易战的双刃剑效应。特朗普的"对等关税"政策直接引发了中美贸易战。这场贸易战对美国而言主要导致通胀压力，而 中国则面临就业压力。双方都在通过补贴等政策手段来缓解这些压力，但长期来 ...