Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the rising prices of precious metals, particularly gold, driven by increasing risk aversion and weakening dollar credit, with a long-term bullish outlook on gold prices due to ongoing U.S. debt issues and growing demand for gold investments [1] Group 1: Precious Metals Market - Risk aversion has intensified, leading to a surge in precious metal prices, particularly gold [1] - The trend of weakening dollar credit is accelerating in the short term, supporting the rise in gold prices [1] - Central bank gold purchases and increasing investment demand are expected to sustain upward pressure on precious metal prices [1] Group 2: Long-term Outlook - The macroeconomic uncertainties abroad continue to amplify gold's safe-haven attributes in the medium term [1] - The weakening dollar credit narrative has become clearer since Trump's administration, enhancing gold's monetary properties [1] - A long-term bullish outlook on gold prices is maintained, with expectations for a continued upward movement in the price center [1] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Investors are encouraged to consider participating in gold investments during subsequent price corrections and to accumulate positions gradually [1] - Direct investment in physical gold and tax-exempt gold ETFs (518800) are recommended, along with gold stock ETFs (517400) that cover the entire gold industry chain [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - Policy cools market speculative sentiment, leading to stock index oscillations, but short - term adjustment space is limited, and long - term bulls can enter the market at appropriate times. Asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but the central bank warns of interest - rate risks. With the US suspending key mineral taxes, copper prices are oscillating strongly. Various factors influence different commodities, and specific trading strategies are recommended for each [1]. Summary by Industry and Variety Macro - finance - **Stock Index**: Policy cools speculative sentiment, causing oscillations. Short - term adjustment space is small, and long - term bulls can enter at opportune moments [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but the central bank warns of short - term interest - rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest - rate decision [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: With the US suspending key mineral taxes, short - term concerns ease, and copper prices are oscillating strongly [1]. - **Alumina**: Industry drive is limited, but macro sentiment improves. Domestic supply is strong and demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate around the cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: The cost center is stable, and prices fluctuate in a range. Look for high - selling and low - buying opportunities [1]. - **Nickel**: Supply concerns persist due to various factors, and prices are strong in the short term. Long - term high inventory may have a suppressing effect. Short - term buying on dips is recommended [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Supply concerns persist, raw material prices rise, and social inventory decreases slightly. Futures are at a high level, and there is a risk of a short squeeze. Short - term low - buying is recommended [1]. - **Tin**: Market sentiment improves. Although there is a negative news, supply increase in the first quarter is limited, and there is upward potential [1]. Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: Geopolitical risks and strong fundamentals support prices, but there is a risk of profit - taking during the Fed's meeting [1]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: Macro factors support prices in the short term, but fluctuations are large. In the long term, platinum has a supply - demand gap, and palladium tends to have a loose supply. Unilateral low - buying of platinum or a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy is recommended [1]. - **Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon**: Northwest production increases, and Southwest production decreases. December production schedules for polysilicon and organic silicon decline [1]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are factors such as the off - season for new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and battery export rush [1]. Black Metals - **Rebar**: Expectations are strong, but spot is weak, and the rally momentum is insufficient. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: High production and inventory suppress price increases. Unilateral long positions should be closed, and positive - spread positions can be considered [1]. - **Iron Ore**: There is a sector rotation, but there is obvious upward pressure, and chasing long is not recommended [1]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: There is a mix of weak reality and strong expectations. Supply may be affected by energy - consumption control and anti - involution. Short - term sentiment is warm, but medium - term supply is excessive [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The market is pessimistic about the coking coal 05 contract. After the first round of coke price increase fails, the price breaks through key supports, and the previous low - buying strategy may change [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Main consumer countries start purchasing, and there may be production cuts and inventory reduction in the origin. It is expected to be strongly oscillating [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Fundamentals are strong, and long - position allocation in oils is recommended. Consider the long Y - short O1 spread [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: There are negative factors, but it is difficult to fall smoothly due to the strength of soybean and palm oils. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Cotton**: There is production expectation, and the purchase price supports the cost. Downstream demand has rigid replenishment needs. The market is in a state of "supported but lacking drive" [1]. - **Sugar**: There is a global surplus and increased domestic supply. There is a consensus on short - selling, and cost support is strong if prices fall [1]. - **Corn**: The selling progress in Northeast China is fast, and there is inventory - replenishment demand before the festival. The price is expected to oscillate [1]. - **Soybeans**: Brazil's harvest may bring selling pressure, and Argentina's dry weather may cause short - term speculation. The M05 is expected to be weakly oscillating [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: Affected by the macro decline, it falls but does not break the oscillation range. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - **Logs**: Spot prices rebound, and the downward space for futures is limited. It is expected to oscillate between 760 - 790 yuan/m³ [1]. - **Hogs**: Spot prices stabilize, demand supports, and production capacity needs further release [1]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ suspends production increase, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East rise, and US cold weather boosts demand [1]. - **Asphalt**: Short - term supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, following crude oil. The "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be false, and supply is sufficient, with high profits [1]. - **Natural Rubber**: There is strong raw - material cost support, and the synthetic - rubber price increase drives the sector [1]. - **BR Rubber**: There is strong support for butadiene, and the market's price - support atmosphere strengthens. It operates with high开工 and high inventory [1]. - **PTA and Short - Fibre**: The PX market drives the rise of chemicals, and there is a large inflow of funds. PTA production increases, and short - fibre prices follow costs [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Overseas prices rebound, and Middle - East exports decrease. There is an increase in speculative demand [1]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand fundamentals improve, and prices rebound. The price spread between styrene and benzene widens, and inventory decreases [1]. - **Urea**: Export sentiment eases, and there is limited upward space, but there is support from anti - involution and cost [1]. - **Methanol**: Import is expected to decrease due to the Iranian situation, but there is obvious downstream negative feedback. There are multiple factors in a multi - empty situation [1]. - **PVC**: Global production is expected to be low in 2026, but the fundamentals are poor. There may be a rush for exports, and capacity may be cleared [1]. - **Caustic Soda**: Macro sentiment fades, and the market focuses on fundamentals. Fundamentals are weak, and there is inventory - building pressure [1]. - **LPG**: February CP is expected to rise, and there is cost support. Inventory decreases, and the heating market is expected to start [1]. Others - **Container Shipping on European Routes**: It is expected to peak in mid - January. Airlines are cautious about resuming flights, and there is pre - festival inventory - replenishment demand [1].

长江期货贵金属周报 2026/1/26 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 【产业服务总部|有色产业中心】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 2025/01/02 2025/02/02 2025/03/02 2025/04/02 2025/05/02 2025/06/02 2025/07/02 2025/08/02 2025/09/02 2025/10/02 2025/11/02 2025/12/02 2026/01/02 格陵兰岛问题持续升级，地缘紧张局势升温，避险情绪 升温，黄金价格偏强震荡。截至上周五，美黄金报收 4983美元/盎司，周内上涨8.3%，关注上方压力位5100， 下方支撑位4900。 美黄金连：日线 美白银连：日线 17.0000 27.0000 37.0000 47.0000 57.0000 67.0000 77.0000 87.0000 97.0000 107.0000 2021/01/01 202 /01/01 20 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 避险升温和美元走弱，金银强劲上涨 国贸期货 贵金属与新能源研究中心 2026-1-26 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 ◆ 上周黄金持续上涨逼近5000美元关口，白银震荡后再度加速上行，历史上首次破 百。主要影响因素分析如下：（1）虽然特朗普TACO收回对欧洲8国的关税威胁、明 确不会武力夺岛一度引发贵金属市场扰动，但格陵兰岛危机并未解除，欧洲部分基金称 将抛售美债和减少美股投资，特朗普威胁若欧洲抛售美债等资产将面临大规模报复、并 表示美国将取得格陵兰岛美军基地所在区域"主权"，加剧了市场的担忧；与此同时， 美国宣布针对伊朗实施新一轮制裁措施、外媒报道美国正调集重兵前往伊朗、特朗普政 府被指正考虑推动古巴政权更迭、美加政治关系紧张等，地缘政治风险的不断扩散、发 酵，导致市场避险情绪急剧升温，提振贵金属价格大幅走强。（2）格陵兰岛危机外溢的 地缘主权风险和美联储独立性的削弱，市场正 ...

今日周一(1月26日)亚盘时段，伦敦银目前交投于107.81一线上方，今日开盘于104.32美元/盎司，截至发 稿，伦敦银暂报109.34美元/盎司，上涨6.24%，最高触及109.44美元/盎司，最低下探103.26美元/盎司， 目前来看，伦敦银盘内短线偏向看涨走势。 【最新伦敦银行情解析】 伦敦银市场上周高开在91.285的位置后行情先拉升给出95.908的位置后行情盘中强势回落，周线最低给 到了90.255的位置后行情在避险言论影响下强势拉升，周线最高触及到了103.018的位置后整理，周线最 终收线在了102.969的位置后，周线以一根基本饱和大阳线收线。 日内而言，伦敦银短期支撑103区域重点，之上强势，跌落走弱；关键重点99-100美元，之上保持多 头，一旦跌落大幅度回落风险加大。 米洛表示，美国近期在波斯湾及中东多地加强军事部署，以军正密切关注局势发展。他指出，如果美国 决定对伊朗发动打击，伊朗的部分回应行动可能波及以色列，以军已为此做好准备。 米洛同时表示，以色列正密切关注黎巴嫩真主党是否可能加入更大范围的冲突。他强调，以军已在防御 和必要时的进攻准备方面保持高度戒备。 此前，美国总统特朗普2 ...

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver are experiencing significant increases, with gold surpassing $5000 per ounce and silver exceeding $109 per ounce, driven by market volatility and geopolitical uncertainties [1] Group 1: Gold Market - On January 26, the London spot gold price broke the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching a historical high and approaching $5100 per ounce during trading [1] - The increase in gold prices is attributed to a potential focus on "rate cut trades," which may enhance market volatility [1] Group 2: Silver Market - The London spot silver also saw a strong performance, with a daily increase of over 5%, surpassing $109 per ounce [1] - The rise in silver prices is occurring concurrently with the surge in gold prices, indicating a broader trend in precious metals [1] Group 3: Market Sentiment - The ongoing uncertainties related to Greenland and Iran are contributing to heightened risk aversion, which may support the upward movement of precious metals in the short term [1]

Group 1 - The report is a precious metals data daily report, providing data and analysis on precious metals such as gold and silver [3][4] Group 2 - On January 23, 2026, the closing price of the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 2.55% to 1115.64 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 8.5% to 24,965 yuan/kilogram [4] - Geopolitical risks such as the Greenland crisis, US sanctions on Iran, and the consideration of overthrowing the Venezuelan regime have led to a surge in risk aversion, boosting precious metal prices [5] - Large - scale capital outflows from currency and sovereign debt and into gold and silver have pushed up the prices of gold and silver [5] - Japan's actions in the bond market, the hawkish stance of the Bank of Japan governor, and the sharp rebound of the yen have increased the decline of the US dollar index, which is beneficial to precious metal prices [5] - London spot gold approached $5000 per ounce, and London spot silver broke through $100 per ounce for the first time in history, with an intraday increase of over 7% [5] Group 3 - In the short term, geopolitical risks, high market uncertainty, risk - aversion, and strong silver fundamentals will continue to support precious metal prices. However, the risk of short - term profit - taking should be watched out for due to the upcoming tripartite contact between Russia, Ukraine, and the US and the Fed's January interest - rate meeting [6] - In the long - term, the Fed is in an easing cycle, geopolitical uncertainty will continue, the trend of de - dollarization will accelerate, and the allocation demand of global central banks, institutions, and residents is expected to continue. So the price center of precious metals is likely to move up. Investors are advised to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options [6] Group 4 Price Tracking - **15 - point prices on January 23, 2026**: London gold spot was $4954.27/ounce, London silver spot was $99.03/ounce, COMEX gold was $4955.00/ounce, COMEX silver was $99.04/ounce, AU2602 was 1111.88 yuan/gram, AG2602 was 24994 yuan/kilogram, AU (T + D) was 1110.30 yuan/gram, and AG (T + D) was 24970 yuan/kilogram. Compared with January 22, 2026, the price increases were 2.7%, 5.3%, 2.7%, 5.4%, 2.6%, 6.9%, 2.7%, and 6.9% respectively [4] - **Price differences on January 23, 2026**: The gold TD - SHFE active price difference was - 1.58 yuan/gram, the silver TD - SHFE active price difference was - 24 yuan/kilogram, the gold internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 3.55 yuan/gram, the silver internal - external price difference (TD - London) was - 166 yuan/kilogram, the SHFE gold - silver ratio was 44.49, the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 50.03, AU2604 - 2602 was 3.76 yuan/gram, and AG2604 - 2602 was - 29 yuan/kilogram. The changes compared with January 22, 2026 were - 25.5%, 33.3%, - 28.3%, - 67.5%, - 4.1%, - 2.6%, - 6.5%, and - 6.5% respectively [4] Position Data - On January 23, 2026, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1086.53 tons, the silver ETF - SLV was 16089.98142 tons, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions were 295772 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 51002 contracts, non - commercial net long positions were 244770 contracts, COMEX silver non - commercial long positions were 42965 contracts, non - commercial short positions were 17751 contracts, and non - commercial net long positions were 25214 contracts. Compared with January 22, 2026, the changes were 0.64%, - 0.09%, - 0.14%, 13.48%, - 2.57%, - 9.24%, 16.19%, and - 21.35% respectively [4] Inventory Data - On January 23, 2026, the SHFE gold inventory was 102009 kilograms, the SHFE silver inventory was 581090 kilograms, the COMEX gold inventory was 36144280 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory was 416424863 troy ounces. Compared with January 22, 2026, the changes were 0.00%, - 1.35%, 0.00%, and - 0.42% respectively [4] Interest Rate/Exchange Rate/Stock Market - On January 23, 2026, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate was 6.99, the US dollar index was 97.51, the 2 - year US Treasury yield was 3.60%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield was 4.24%, the VIX was 16.09, the S&P 500 was 6915.61, and NYMEX crude oil was $61.28/barrel. Compared with January 22, 2026, the changes were - 0.13%, - 0.79%, - 0.28%, - 0.47%, 2.88%, 0.03%, and 2.70% respectively [4]

北京时间1月26日早间，国际金价大幅上行，突破5000美元/盎司。 地缘紧张局势加剧，尤其是美欧关系剑拔弩张，使得市场避险情绪升温，推动黄金价格突破新高。地处北极西北航道要冲的格陵兰岛，控制着连接大西洋 与太平洋的北极航线咽喉，具有重要的航运价值和资源价值。美国政府近期持续发表觊觎格陵兰岛的言论。1月17日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体上宣 布，将从2月1日起对来自丹麦、挪威、瑞典、法国、德国、英国、荷兰和芬兰的输美商品加征10%的关税，并将在6月提高至25%，激起欧盟反击，欧洲 议会21日决定暂缓批准欧美贸易协议。但随后美方又称，已经"制定关于格陵兰岛乃至整个北极地区未来协议的框架"，因此不会实施原定于2月1日生效的 关税措施。 随着美欧对立升级，投机资金浪潮般涌入贵金属市场。统计数据显示，全球最大黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）持仓量一度攀升至1085.67吨，同比增长 24.9%，刷新2年多来的纪录。可见，全球资金对黄金的配置热情仍在攀升。 如果说美欧冲突是这轮金价上涨的推手，那么美元信用弱化与各国央行购金需求高涨，则是支撑黄金冲高的根本力量。 丹麦自治领地格陵兰岛首府努克市中心。安德斯·孔斯豪格摄（新华社） ...

2026.01. 26 本文字数：2170，阅读时长大约4分钟 作者 | 第一财经 樊志菁 随着地缘政治紧张局势高烧不退、全球财政风险忧虑卷土重来，投资者当地时间26日开盘再次涌向 贵金属寻求避险。 截至第一财经发稿时，纽约商品交易所2月交割的COMEX黄金期货上涨超2%，突破5100美元关口， 2月白银期货日内飙升超6%，一度站上108美元/盎司，或创下史上最大月涨幅纪录。 黄金再迎里程碑 近期从格陵兰岛、委内瑞拉到中东的多个冲突热点都推高了地缘政治风险，进一步凸显黄金对冲不确 定性的属性，成为这一贵金属价格飙升的重要原因。上周末，美国总统特朗普威胁对加拿大加征 100%关税，再次引发外界对全球经济不确定性担忧。 汇丰银行在最新研报中表示："黄金和白银价格近期的进一步上涨，与地缘经济问题密切相关。" 与此同时，美元弱势也提振了大宗商品市场，投资者关注可能再次到来的政府停摆。26日盘初，美 元指数下跌0.4%，报97.11，创近四个月新低。23日日本政府表态将采取措施应对日元回落波动背后 的市场投机行为，并警告称已做好干预准备，此后投资者将持续密切关注日本股市与日元走势。巴克 莱银行认为："干预预期升温推动日 ...

Group 1: Market Performance - The domestic futures market showed a mixed performance from January 19 to January 23, with strong performance in precious metals and energy chemicals, while the black series experienced a general pullback [2] - In the energy chemical sector, fuel oil rose by 4.01% and crude oil increased by 0.79%. In contrast, the black series saw coking coal decline by 1.07% and iron ore drop by 2.21% [2] - Precious metals saw significant gains, with Shanghai gold up by 6.10% and Shanghai silver up by 8.39% [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Insights - On January 23, international silver prices surpassed $100 per ounce, marking a historical high with an annual increase of over 44%. The rise in gold and silver prices is attributed to geopolitical factors [3] - Silver's price increase is driven by both financial and industrial demand, with ongoing supply shortages exacerbated by tightening export controls and low inventory levels [3][4] - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in gold and silver are primarily influenced by geopolitical tensions and market liquidity expectations rather than solely by safe-haven demand [4][5] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Trends - On January 23, overseas platinum futures prices exceeded $2,600 per ounce, while palladium prices approached $2,000 per ounce, with platinum futures rising by 10.39% [6] - The platinum market has faced supply shortages for three consecutive years, with a projected supply gap of 69,200 ounces by 2025, leading to low inventory levels [6] - The demand for platinum is expected to be bolstered by the accelerating hydrogen energy industry, while palladium faces long-term pressure due to its reliance on internal combustion engine vehicles [7] Group 4: Regulatory Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission announced new guidelines for public fund performance benchmarks, effective March 1, 2026, aimed at enhancing the stability and seriousness of benchmark applications [8][9] - The guidelines emphasize the need for internal controls and management by fund managers, as well as external oversight by custodians and sales institutions [8][9] Group 5: Oil Market Dynamics - International oil prices rose over 3% due to escalating geopolitical tensions and increased U.S. sanctions, with Brent crude and NYMEX crude closing at $65.44 and $61.29 per barrel, respectively [11] - Analysts note that while the oil market currently faces an oversupply, geopolitical uncertainties provide a support base for prices, leading to potential short-term price spikes [11]