Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The extension of Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and the large - scale government spending cuts in the new bill have raised concerns about the expansion of the federal debt scale, leading to a weakening of the US dollar. The risk of the US dollar's credit has increased, which is a structural positive for the gold price. The Fed's latest statements maintain a cautious and wait - and - see tone, and the uncertainty of fiscal and tariff policies may delay the timing of interest rate cuts this year. In the medium - to - long - term, gold prices are still boosted by the safe - haven property and interest rate cut expectations. [2] - The tariff situation has reached a deadlock again, and the negotiations between the US, Japan, and the EU face great uncertainty. Against the background of the medium - to - long - term upward shift of the gold - silver ratio, the correlation between gold and silver price movements has declined. Recently, silver has mainly followed the upward trend of gold. In addition, silver's industrial demand remains strong, and its industrial attribute may maintain resilience. It is recommended to adopt a medium - to - long - term strategy of buying on dips. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 780.1 yuan/gram, up 1.32 yuan; the closing price of the Shanghai Silver main contract was 8301 yuan/kg, up 29 yuan. [2] - **Positions**: The main contract positions of Shanghai Gold were 224,053 lots, up 1,559 lots; the main contract positions of Shanghai Silver were 383,991 lots, up 20,934 lots. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Gold main contract were 111,487 lots, up 4,976 lots; the net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai Silver main contract were 175,940 lots, up 11,732 lots. [2] - **Warehouse Receipts**: The number of gold warehouse receipts was 17,247 kg, unchanged; the number of silver warehouse receipts was 949,197 kg, up 8,398 kg. [2] 3.2现货市场 - **Prices**: The spot price of gold on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 780.99 yuan/gram, up 7.2 yuan; the spot price of silver was 8,269 yuan/kg, up 73 yuan. [2] - **Basis**: The basis of the Shanghai Gold main contract was 0.89 yuan/gram, up 5.88 yuan; the basis of the Shanghai Silver main contract was - 32 yuan/kg, up 44 yuan. [2] 3.3 Supply and Demand Situation - **ETF Holdings**: Gold ETF holdings were 919.88 tons, down 1.72 tons; silver ETF holdings were 14,054.89 tons, unchanged. [2] - **CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions**: Gold CFTC non - commercial net positions were 161,209 contracts, down 1,288 contracts; silver CTFC non - commercial net positions were 47,754 contracts, down 1,498 contracts. [2] - **Supply and Demand Quantities**: The total supply of gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.84 tons; the total supply of silver in the year was 987.8 million troy ounces, down 21.4 million troy ounces. The total demand for gold in the quarter was 1,313.01 tons, up 54.83 tons; the global total demand for silver in the year was 1,195 million ounces, down 47.4 million ounces. [2] 3.4 Option Market - **Historical Volatility**: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold was 32.82%, down 0.68 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility of gold was 26.97%, down 0.06 percentage points. [2] - **Implied Volatility**: The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for gold was 27.46%, up 0.43 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for gold was 27.47%, up 0.45 percentage points. [2] 3.5 Industry News - A new tax bill extends Trump's tax - cut policy in his first term and cuts government spending to pay for tax cuts. The market is worried that this will lead to an expansion of the federal debt scale, and the CBO estimates that it will increase the federal deficit by $1.8 trillion from 2026 - 2035. [2] - Two Fed officials said the Fed can be patient and evaluate upcoming data before adjusting policies. [2] - The EU is expected to submit a revised trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations with the Trump administration. [2] - The Middle East situation is tense. Iran is evaluating participation in the next round of negotiations with the US, and Israel is preparing to strike Iranian nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down. [2] - According to CME's "FedWatch", the probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged in June is 94.6%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 5.4%. In July, the probability of keeping interest rates unchanged is 73.1%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 25.7%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point rate cut is 1.2%. [2] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - For the Shanghai Gold 2508 contract, focus on the range of 758 - 805 yuan/gram; for the Shanghai Silver 2508 contract, focus on the range of 8,200 - 8,390 yuan/kg. For COMEX gold futures, focus on the range of $3,240 - $3,380 per ounce; for COMEX silver futures, focus on the range of $32.9 - $34.0 per ounce. [2]

美债拍卖不及预期，黄金避险情绪升温！黄金亚盘买盘减弱，回踩是机会还是风险？立即观看超V推荐 官Jason的分析，马上进入直播间>>> 相关链接 ...

Group 1 - The U.S. financial market experienced significant turmoil on May 21, with U.S. Treasuries, equities, and the dollar all declining sharply [1][3] - The auction results for the 20-year Treasury bond revealed a yield of 5.047%, a 24 basis point increase from the previous month, marking the second highest level in history [1][3] - The downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating by Moody's from Aaa to Aa1 has put additional pressure on U.S. Treasuries, leading to a rise in long-term bond yields [3][4] Group 2 - The 10-year Treasury yield rose by 12 basis points to 4.56%, while the 30-year yield surpassed 4.7% [3] - The dollar index (DXY) fell by 0.8% to 104.2, reaching its lowest point in a month [3] - Major U.S. stock indices saw significant declines, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropping 800 points (1.91%), and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also experiencing notable losses [3] Group 3 - The U.S. federal government debt-to-GDP ratio has reached 97.8%, with projections indicating it will exceed 107.2% by 2029 [4] - Concerns regarding the sustainability of U.S. debt are growing, potentially increasing the risk premium on long-term U.S. Treasuries [4]

目前欧盘时段当前金价最低回踩到3322附近起涨，我们给出的3320-22附近多单目前已经小幅反弹，没 单回落可继续多，这种行情回落就是进多机会，但是进多不要太着急，如果进场点位不是很好一定要注 意缩小这样才能避免刚好下探扫损再上来，并且把风险控制的相对合理。欧美盘重点就是这一波反弹力 度，如果这一波能反弹上到3340上方，重点关注3350-52压制情况，未能直接上破考虑在3348-50短空一 次，下方回落3328-30可继续多。 若直接突破3350-52可能继续拉升冲击3370，跟此前3252破位多是一个 道理。 反之，若意外跌破3315，那么这一波强势格局可能暂时结束，下方考虑在3300-02接回多单。综 合来看，今日黄金短线操作思路上金晟富建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方短期重点关注3350- 3360一线阻力，下方短期重点关注3310-3320一线支撑，各位朋友一定要跟上节奏。要控制好仓位及止 损问题、严格设止损，切勿抗单操作。具体点位以盘中实时为主，欢迎前来体验，交流实时行情，进群 关注实时单。 5.22黄金操作策略参考： 换资前言： 黄金市场涨跌转换频繁，走势非常极端、市场出现剧烈洗盘走法。导致 ...

5月22日国内金价快报：国内品牌金店金价仍保持涨势，大部分价格维持在1012元/克。老凤祥黄金今日金价上涨7元/克，报 价1012元/克，也成了最高价金店。上海中国黄金大涨26元/克，报价969元/克，但还是最低价金店。今日金店黄金价差43元/ 克，价差是缩小了，整体价格反而更高了。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | | | 今日金店黄金价格一览(2025年5月22日) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 金店报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | 变动幅度 | 涨跌 | | 老庙黄金价格 | 1005 | 元/克 | 1 | 涨 | | 六福黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 4 | 涨 | | 周大福黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 4 | 洗 | | 周六福黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 4 | 洗 | | 金至尊黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 4 | 涨 | | 老凤祥黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 7 | 涨 | | 潮宏基黄金价格 | 1012 | 元/克 | 4 | 涨 | | 周生生黄金价格 | 1011 | 元/克 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：减税法案引发赤字担忧，美国股债汇三杀，金价震荡；美国三大股指全 线收跌，欧洲主要股市涨跌不一；美元指数跌0.42%报99.60，离岸人民币升值报 7.2040；美债收益率全线走高，10年期美债收益率涨11.56个基点报4.605%；COMEX 黄金期货涨0.97%报3316.60美元/盎司；中性 6、预期：今日关注国新办就科技金融政策有关情况举行新闻发布会、欧元区PMI、 欧央行会议纪要、欧央行和美联储官员讲话。减税法案引发赤字担忧，美元资产担 忧再起，但金价震荡小幅回升，反而昨日亚盘涨幅更明显。沪金溢价迅速扩大至8元 /克左右，国 ...

交易提示 交易咨询：0571-85165192，85058093 2025 年 5 月 22 日星期四 16519 新世纪期货交易提示（2025-5-22） | | | | | 铁矿：前期政策与情绪驱动的上涨动力逐步减弱，短期内回归基本面。铁 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | 矿在强现实、强基差下，在黑色中估值偏强，在板块中以多配为主。当前 | | | | | | 钢厂盈利率水平较高，中美阶段性缓和带来新的补库需求，这轮关税会导 | | | 铁矿石 | | 逢高空配 | 致铁水在 245 万吨附近维持较长时间，短期盘面受到较强支撑。铁矿港口 | | | | | | 库存水平仍相对偏高，对价格形成一定的压力。同时外需出口提前透支， | | | | | | 中美关税"休缓期"在 8 月中上旬，利好 9-1 月差的走扩。中长期来看， | | | | | | 内需疲弱，铁矿仍以偏空思路对待。 | | | | | | 煤焦：主产地煤矿基本维持正常生产，焦煤供需宽松格局不变。由于焦煤 | | | | | | 价格的下移，焦化企业利润好转，目前多数焦企盈亏平衡状态。钢厂 ...

北京时间5月22日凌晨， 美国金融市场遭遇"股债汇三杀" 。 受20年期国债拍卖需求疲软及财政赤字担忧拖累，美国三大股指创下自4月21日以来最大单日跌幅，基 准10年期美债收益率则触及近三个月高位，美元指数跌破100关口。 美股科技巨头普遍下挫；部分中概股逆势上涨，小鹏汽车、小牛电动因财报超预期分别涨超13%和 16%。 避险情绪推动金价延续反弹， 伦敦金现价格回升至3310美元/盎司上方 。 美股美债应声下跌 北京时间5月22日凌晨，美国20年期国债拍卖结果不佳，金融市场遭遇冲击。Wind数据显示，截至收 盘，道指跌1.91%，报收41860.44点；标普500指数跌1.61%，报收5844.61点；纳指跌1.41%，报收 18872.64点。与此同时，基准10年期国债收益率达到了4.607%，为2月13日以来的最高水平。 万得美国科技七巨头指数跌1.13%。特斯拉、苹果跌超2%，微软、亚马逊、英伟达跌逾1%，谷歌涨 2.87%。 | 资彩 成分 | 资讯 | 相关基金 | | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | 现价 | 涨跌幅 ◆ | | 谷歌(ALPHABET)· | 170.060 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The current rise in gold prices is driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and uncertainties surrounding U.S. fiscal policy, leading to increased demand for safe-haven assets [1][3]. Market Sentiment - Market sentiment is significantly leaning towards risk aversion, with geopolitical risks enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - The market's willingness to hedge and arbitrage has noticeably increased due to the Middle East risk premium reflected in gold price movements [3]. Technical Analysis - Gold prices are approaching a double top formation, indicating potential technical pullback risks [3]. - If geopolitical tensions ease and market risk appetite returns, gold prices may test support levels at $3,230 and potentially drop to $3,120 [3]. - Current trading patterns show gold fluctuating around $3,300, with a notable resistance at $3,320 and support at $3,285 [5]. Trading Strategy - The trading strategy suggests monitoring the $3,315 and $3,320 resistance levels for potential short positions, while keeping an eye on the $3,285 support level for possible downward movements [5]. - The analysis indicates a need for caution as the market shows signs of a quick rise followed by corrections, suggesting a shift in trading strategy may be necessary [5].

Group 1 - The core driving factors for the current rise in gold prices include heightened risk aversion due to the downgrade of the US credit rating, geopolitical uncertainties in Europe and the US, global trade tensions, and escalating tensions in the Middle East, leading to increased capital inflow into the gold market [3] - The weakening of the US dollar's credibility is evident as the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations rise, with US debt surpassing $36 trillion, prompting central banks worldwide to increase gold holdings to mitigate risks associated with dollar assets [3] - Technical buying has been triggered as gold prices surpassed $3,000, leading to algorithmic trading following suit, with gold ETF holdings nearing their peak for the year, indicating strong bullish sentiment in the market [3] Group 2 - Optimistic analysts, such as those from the China Foreign Exchange Investment Research Institute, believe that gold is likely to remain in an upward trend in the medium to long term, with prices potentially reaching $3,350 to $3,700 per ounce by 2025, while Goldman Sachs predicts extreme scenarios could see prices hit $4,500 [3] - Conversely, cautious analysts from the World Gold Council warn of a potential slowdown in growth and short-term pullback pressures, with technical indicators suggesting signals similar to the 2011 peak [3] - There is a long-term consensus that gold retains its strategic value as a hedge against inflation and a safe-haven asset, although short-term volatility risks should be monitored [3] Group 3 - For ordinary investors, it is recommended to allocate 5%-15% of their investable assets to gold to balance risk and return, suggesting that a 10% allocation in a 60/40 stock-bond portfolio can reduce overall volatility [4] - Investment options include physical gold, which is suitable for long-term value retention but incurs transaction costs (buy-sell spread of approximately 5-10 yuan per gram), and gold ETFs or accumulation gold, which offer strong liquidity and lower entry barriers, making them suitable for dollar-cost averaging or risk diversification [5] - High-risk tools such as futures and options are advised against for ordinary investors due to their extreme volatility and potential for significant losses [6] Group 4 - Timing strategies suggest that, given the current high gold prices (London gold at $3,301 per ounce), investors may consider waiting for a pullback to the $2,800-$3,000 range for phased entry [7] - For long-term strategies, monthly dollar-cost averaging or buying on dips is recommended to mitigate the impact of volatility through a "time smoothing" approach [7] Group 5 - Successful case studies include investors who began monthly investments in gold ETFs from 2019, achieving over 250% returns by 2025 [9] - Conversely, a cautionary tale involves a Shenzhen-based merchant who suffered over 100 million yuan in losses due to leveraged trading in gold futures, leading to a payment crisis [9] - Overall, gold remains strategically valuable for 2025, but ordinary investors should avoid chasing high prices, control their positions, and engage in long-term investments or phased buying during market pullbacks [9]