Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Gold and silver prices are both in a state of oscillation. The hope of the end of the US government shutdown has stabilized risk appetite, and the prices of both precious metals are expected to be slightly bearish in the medium - to - long term [4][5]. - For gold, although US consumer confidence is near a record low, the hope of the end of the government shutdown affects its price. The premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to - 0.4 yuan/gram [4]. - For silver, being included in the US critical minerals list may bring tariff concerns and provide some support. The silver premium remains at 320 yuan/gram [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US consumer confidence is near a record low, but the hope of the end of the government shutdown causes gold price oscillation. US stock indices show mixed performance, European stock indices fall, US bond yields rise (10 - year yield up 1.54 basis points to 4.097%), the US dollar index falls 0.16% to 99.55, and COMEX gold futures rise 0.42% to $4007.8 per ounce. The basis shows that the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory increases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, the main position is net long but with a reduction in long positions [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, affected by the situation in the US, silver price oscillates. It is included in the US critical minerals list, and tariff concerns may support the price. COMEX silver futures rise 0.57% to $48.225 per ounce. The basis shows the spot is at a discount to the futures, the inventory decreases, the k - line is below the 20 - day moving average, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions [5][6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - Today, pay attention to the release of the summary of the opinions of the Japanese central bank's deliberation committee members, the euro - zone investor confidence index, the preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index, and the possible release of Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders [4][17]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:50: The Japanese central bank publishes the summary of the opinions of its deliberation committee members. - 13:00: The preliminary value of Japan's September coincident index is released. - 17:30: The euro - zone November Sentix investor confidence index is announced. - Indefinite: Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders may be released [17]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The futures price is 921.26, the spot price is 918, with a basis of - 3.26 (spot at a discount to futures). The futures warehouse receipt is 89,616 kg, an increase of 1,800 kg [4]. - **Silver**: The futures price is 11,484, the spot price is 11,481, with a basis of - 3 (spot at a discount to futures). The Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipt is 623,052 kg, a daily decrease of 16,888 kg [6]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The net long position of the main players is decreasing. For example, on November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 165,261, an increase of 2,283 (1.40%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 67,608, an increase of 934 (1.40%); the net position is 97,653, an increase of 1,349 (1.40%) [33]. - **Silver**: The net long position of the main players is increasing. On November 7, 2025, the long - order volume is 354,598, an increase of 14,183 (4.17%) compared to November 6; the short - order volume is 255,979, an increase of 4,872 (1.94%); the net position is 98,619, an increase of 9,311 (10.43%) [35].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market shows a mixed picture with different commodities having various trends based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and external policies [1][3][4]. - Some commodities like焦煤,黄金, and白银 have relatively positive outlooks in the short - to - long term, while others such as沥青, rubber, and methanol are expected to be weak [1][8][9]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Metals** - **焦煤**: Domestic supply is disrupted, import supplement is limited, and the spot market is stable and slightly strong. The fundamentals are healthy, and the spot is short - term easy to rise and hard to fall, while the futures may oscillate [1]. - **螺纹钢**: In the off - season, demand is under pressure, but the cost support from winter storage and potential policy benefits may lead to a low - level wide - range oscillation [3]. - **铁矿石**: After the peak of arrivals, the supply - demand pattern may return to a tight balance. The price may oscillate and strengthen after a rapid decline [4]. - **白银**: Short - term oscillation and long - term bullish due to the changing risk sentiment and the divergence from gold [8]. **Agricultural Products** - **生猪**: Supply pressure is large, terminal demand growth is insufficient, and the price has short - term downward pressure [5]. - **棕榈油**: The production reduction expectation fails, and the supply pressure restricts the price increase. It is expected to adjust weakly in the short term [5]. - **菜粕**: Supply is rigidly short, and the price decline risk is reduced. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. **Energy and Chemicals** - **沥青**: Cost support weakens, and the off - peak demand increases the downward pressure. It is expected to oscillate weakly [8]. - **橡胶**: Demand lacks substantial benefits, and the trade barriers and inventory issues lead to a weak outlook [9]. - **甲醇**: The port inventory accumulates slightly, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly [12]. - **纯碱**: The supply is at a high level, and the demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate in the short term [13]. **Others** - **长期国债**: Economic recovery does not interfere with monetary policy, and the bond market has increasing positive factors. It is expected to oscillate slightly bullishly in the medium term [10]. - **塑料**: Supply is high, demand is off - peak, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [11].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%, indicating a release of liquidity but uncertainty about future rate cuts due to mixed economic data [1] - Current U.S. economic indicators show "moderate inflation decline and weakening employment momentum," with fluctuating prices of essential goods affecting inflation stability [1] - The ongoing budget negotiations and partial government shutdown have increased fiscal uncertainty, amplifying market volatility and leading to heightened interest in defensive assets like gold and bonds [1] Group 2 - In response to a complex external environment, multiple central banks are strengthening regional financial cooperation through tools like currency swap agreements and cross-border liquidity arrangements [2] - There is a frequent flow of funds between safe-haven and risk assets, with institutional investors adopting defensive strategies and increasing allocations to options and hedging tools to prepare for potential market volatility [2] - The current global market dynamics are driven by two main themes: central banks recalibrating policies amid inflation and employment challenges, and rising demand for safe-haven assets due to fiscal and geopolitical uncertainties [2]

Market Overview - Gold prices are trading around $3984 per ounce, having approached $4020 per ounce due to a weaker dollar and increased safe-haven demand [1][5] - U.S. crude oil is trading at approximately $59.72 per barrel, continuing a downward trend for the third consecutive month due to oversupply and weak demand [1][9] Economic Indicators - China's October trade balance in RMB is reported at 6454.7 billion, with imports and exports showing year-on-year changes of 7.5% and 8.4% respectively [3] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of deterioration, with a 183.1% increase in announced layoffs in October, marking the highest figure for that month in over 20 years [4] Commodity Market - The U.S. government has added uranium, copper, and silver to its critical minerals list, indicating a focus on domestic supply for national security and infrastructure development [7][15] - Analysts predict gold prices could reach between $4300 and $4400 per ounce by year-end due to ongoing uncertainties [7] Stock Market - U.S. stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones down 0.84%, S&P 500 down 1.12%, and Nasdaq down 1.90%, driven by high valuations and economic uncertainty [4] - Despite strong earnings reports, with 83% of S&P 500 companies exceeding expectations, concerns about the economic outlook persist [4] Oil Market - International oil prices continue to decline, with Brent crude at $63.38 and U.S. crude at $59.43, facing pressures from oversupply and weak demand [9][11] - U.S. oil inventories increased by 5.2 million barrels, contributing to downward pressure on prices [11] Currency Market - The U.S. dollar index fell by 0.42% to 99.70, influenced by weak labor market data and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [13][14]

Group 1 - Recent positive signals in US-China relations, including the US pausing sanctions on China's shipbuilding industry and initiating a public consultation process to suspend tariff increases for one year, are seen as significant progress in bilateral relations, boosting market confidence [1] - The Dow Jones futures rose approximately 0.20%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures increased by 0.25% and 0.33% respectively, following a period of market pressure due to corrections in the technology and AI sectors [1] - The latest employment data indicates signs of economic cooling, with October layoffs exceeding 153,000, marking the highest level in over 20 years, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December [1] Group 2 - The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 67% probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December, up from 60% the previous week, which has contributed to a positive sentiment in the stock market and provided solid support for gold [1] - Despite an increase in risk appetite, safe-haven sentiment has not completely dissipated due to concerns over the ongoing US government shutdown, which has lasted over five weeks, potentially impacting the economy [1] - The US Supreme Court's hearings on the legality of presidential tariff powers have heightened policy uncertainty, leading to a resurgence of safe-haven sentiment that supports gold prices [1] Group 3 - Gold (XAU/USD) stabilized above $4,000 but failed to break the overnight high, with market volatility increasing due to the divergence between the dollar's rebound and rate cut expectations [2] - Technically, if gold prices break through the resistance zone of $4,020–$4,030, they may further test the $4,045–$4,050 range and approach the $4,100 mark; conversely, a drop below the support zone of $3,975–$3,965 could see prices retreat to around $3,929 [2] - The market remains in a pattern of intertwining policy expectations and safe-haven sentiment, with gold supported by both rate cut expectations and safe-haven demand, maintaining its position above $4,000 [2]

Core Viewpoint - Japanese investors have significantly withdrawn from overseas equity and bond markets in response to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, opting to lock in profits from previous market gains [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - For the week ending November 1, Japanese investors net sold 581.1 billion yen (approximately 3.85 billion USD) in foreign stocks, marking the largest weekly sell-off since October 4 [1] - Additionally, they reduced holdings in long-term foreign bonds by 354.4 billion yen and short-term bonds by 798.7 billion yen, indicating a cautious stance towards overseas fixed-income assets [1][5] - The MSCI World Index has declined by 1.6% this week, poised for its first weekly drop in four weeks [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, emphasizing a balanced labor market and sustained inflation above the 2% target, dampened expectations for rate cuts in December [2][3] - This shift in sentiment has prompted Japanese investors to reassess the risk-reward profile of their overseas asset allocations [3] Group 3: Contrasting Trends - In contrast to the sell-off in foreign assets, foreign investors have net bought Japanese stocks for the fifth consecutive week, purchasing approximately 690.1 billion yen in local shares, reflecting ongoing confidence in the Japanese market [5] - Despite this, the Nikkei 225 index has seen a decline of about 5% this week, with significant losses in technology stocks, highlighting the global market's impact on Japan [5] - Japanese long-term bonds experienced a net inflow of approximately 280.6 billion yen after two weeks of foreign capital outflow, while foreign investors also acquired short-term debt instruments valued at 1.83 trillion yen, indicating a preference for yen-denominated assets [5]

Market Overview - The global largest gold ETF held 1,040.35 tons as of November 6, with an increase of 1.72 tons from the previous day and a net increase of 26.32 tons from the previous month [2] Economic Indicators - U.S. economic data shows a significant increase in corporate layoffs by 175.3% year-on-year in October, with a loss of 9,100 jobs reported [3] - The Chicago Fed reported an unemployment rate of approximately 4.36%, the highest in four years [3] - Retail hiring for the holiday season is expected to be the lowest since the financial crisis, although consumer spending may exceed $1 trillion [3] Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces increasing policy divergence, with a 72% probability of another rate cut in December [3] - The Bank of England has removed the term "cautious," potentially paving the way for a rate cut in December [3] Gold Market - Spot gold closed at $3,977.16 per ounce, reflecting a resurgence of risk-averse sentiment amid government shutdown concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] Currency Strategies - For EUR/USD, a bullish strategy is suggested above 1.1515, targeting 1.1560 and then 1.1580 [4] - For gold, a bearish strategy is recommended below 3,995, targeting 3,964 and then 3,948 [8] - For USD/JPY, a bearish outlook is anticipated below 153.70, targeting 152.70 and then 152.30 [11] - For GBP/USD, a bullish strategy is advised above 1.3070, targeting 1.3165 and then 1.3195 [14] - For AUD/USD, a bearish strategy is suggested below 0.6500, targeting 0.6460 and then 0.6440 [17]

周五亚洲交易时段，黄金保持坚挺，现交投于3990至4000美元区间。随着美国政府停摆进入第六周，市 场对经济放缓的忧虑升温。Challenger数据显示，10月裁员人数超过15万人，创二十年来新高，强化了 市场对美联储12月降息的押注。分析人士指出，降息预期降低了黄金的持有成本，吸引力因此增强。 Zaner Metals策略师Peter Grant表示："财政和政治不确定性升温，使避险买盘重新成为市场主导力 量。"交易员将密切关注北京时间今晚公布的密歇根大学消费者信心指数，以判断美国消费端动能是否 进一步减弱。 当前市场依旧由避险与流动性主导，若密歇根大学消费者信心数据不及预期，市场对美联储12月降息的 预期或将进一步增强，从而支撑黄金维持高位震荡。总体来看，短线仍可保持逢低布局思路，但需关注 美联储官员讲话可能引发的短期波动。 整体而言，避险情绪支撑黄金在高位运行，短线支撑关注3990美元，关键压力位仍在4000美元关口。美 元在通胀风险与降息预期的拉扯中反弹受限，原油则在供需与地缘因素交织下震荡整理。未来，市场焦 点将转向密歇根大学消费者信心数据及美联储官员威廉姆斯、杰斐逊与米兰的讲话，以寻找政策基调的 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a temporary rise due to increased risk aversion but fell back as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened rate cut expectations, closing at $3984.80 per ounce, a decrease of 0.20% [1] - In October, U.S. companies announced layoffs totaling 153074, a year-on-year increase of 175.3%, marking a seven-month high, with a month-on-month increase of 183% [1] Group 2 - Current precious metal prices lack significant drivers, with expectations of maintaining a volatile pattern in the short term, particularly around the December trading window and the Federal Reserve's meeting [2] - Long-term factors such as excessive debt and de-globalization are seen as core drivers of declining U.S. dollar credit, with gold being viewed as a preferred asset for hedging against dollar credit risk, supported by ongoing global central bank gold purchases [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. government shutdown has entered its sixth week, becoming the longest in U.S. history, raising concerns about its potential impact on Q4 economic growth [1] - The Congressional Budget Office estimates that the shutdown could lead to a GDP decline of 1% to 2%, exacerbating worries about short-term economic slowdown [1] - Despite the shutdown, U.S. economic data remains robust, with October ADP employment increasing by 42,000, surpassing the expected 25,000, and ISM services PMI rising to 52.4, the highest in eight months [1] Group 2 - Gold prices (XAU/USD) continued to rebound, breaking the $4,000 mark, driven by safe-haven inflows due to the U.S. government shutdown, geopolitical tensions, and escalating Ukraine situation [1] - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance remains a significant resistance for gold bulls, as market expectations for another rate cut in December diminish, potentially limiting gold's upside [1] - Technical analysis indicates short-term resistance for gold at $4,025 to $4,030, with potential extension targets of $4,075 to $4,100, while support is around $3,970, with a drop below that possibly leading to a retreat to the $3,910 to $3,900 range [1] Group 3 - In the forex market, investors are focused on the Bank of England's (BoE) interest rate decision, with expectations that the BoE will maintain the policy rate at 4% during the November meeting [2] - The British pound stabilized around 1.3050 after a brief rebound, while the euro/dollar pair ended a five-day decline, consolidating above 1.1500 [2] - Overall risk sentiment is showing a mild recovery, providing some support for non-U.S. currencies, while the market awaits new guidance amid the interplay of risk aversion and hawkish policy expectations [2]