投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【贵金属周报（AU、AG）】 中美贸易摩擦再升级，贵金属或延续偏强运行 国贸期货 宏观金融研究中心 2025-10-13 白素娜 从业资格证号：F3023916 投资咨询证号：Z0013700 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 周度观点摘要 | ◆ 上周黄金白银冲高回落，但周线仍大幅上涨。主要影响因素分析如下：国庆假期，因美国联 | | 黄金相关数据指标跟踪 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 单位 | 本期 | 上一期 | 周度变化 | 周度涨跌幅 | | 邦政府时隔7年再度"停摆"、法国日本政治不确定提升等大幅提升市场避险情绪，与此同时，美 | | | | | | | | | 伦敦现货黄金 | 美元/盎司 | 4017.845 | 3885.660 | 132.185 | 3.40% | | 国9月ADP数据不及预期和市场担忧美国政府停摆将增加经济走弱风险，强化美联储10月降息预期， | 沪金主力 | ...

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - The tension in China-US trade relations has heightened risk aversion in the market[1] - During the period from September 29 to October 10, the average daily trading volume increased by 82.1 billion RMB, reaching 2.3953 trillion RMB[9] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.80%, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.11%[9] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The September PMI showed a weaker-than-seasonal recovery, indicating ongoing supply-demand imbalances[9] - Real estate sales experienced a significant year-on-year decline, reflecting continued pressure in the sector[9] - Exports in September maintained resilience due to a low base, supporting investment recovery prospects[9] Group 3: Fixed Income Market - During the same period, the yield on 30-year government bonds increased, while other maturities saw slight declines[9] - The central bank's operations indicated a commitment to maintaining liquidity, with a potential increase in the probability of interest rate cuts in October[9] - The overall sentiment in the bond market is cautiously optimistic, despite uncertainties from the stock market and fund redemption regulations[9] Group 4: International Market Dynamics - US stock markets experienced declines, with the Dow Jones falling by 1.66% and the S&P 500 down by 1.37%[9] - The US government shutdown has intensified economic pressures, with an estimated daily loss of approximately 400 million USD in wages[9] - Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods starting November 1 has further escalated market risk aversion[9]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Type: Fixed Income Report - Release Date: October 13, 2025 - Analyst: Liang Weichao - SAC Registration Number: S1340523070001 - Email: liangweichao@cnpsec.com [1][2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The bond market is expected to move in a volatile manner in the fourth quarter. The 30 - 10 and 10 - 1 year Treasury yield spreads have reflected the risk preference repair, and the current bond market has allocation value. Supply pressure is expected to ease, there may be opportunities for monetary easing, and redemption pressure will persist. The bond market may alternate between repair and adjustment, with repair driven by allocation value and adjustment due to redemption pressure. If there is an opportunity for monetary easing, the emotional repair will accelerate, followed by faster unwinding and selling [3][10]. - After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The marginal easing of the capital market has intensified, and the current capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, with the central level dropping back to the policy rate. The continued decline in capital prices has promoted the warming of easing expectations and the repair of bond market sentiment [3][10]. - The short - end is in a high - allocation value range, and the long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair. The current pricing level is close to the historical average, so the long - short term spread is reasonably priced, which can control the risk of further upward movement of the long - end. The downward drive of the long - end depends on the decline of risk preference or the opportunity of monetary easing [3][12]. - Recently, the risk - aversion sentiment has increased, and bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase". The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty, the disturbance of redemption problems still exists during the market repair, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Therefore, although the bond market has recovered under the drive of risk - aversion sentiment, the yield is unlikely to return to the state of rapid decline, and chasing the rise requires caution [4][14]. Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Is it time to chase or stop the risk - aversion sentiment? - **Market Outlook**: The bond market in the fourth quarter may move in a volatile manner. The yield spreads have reflected risk preference repair, and the market has allocation value. Supply pressure may ease, there may be monetary easing opportunities, and redemption pressure will continue. The market may alternate between repair and adjustment [10]. - **Liquidity Analysis**: After the holiday, liquidity enters the seasonal easing window at the beginning of the quarter. The capital price has fallen to the lowest level in the same period of history, and the continued decline has promoted the warming of easing expectations and bond market sentiment. This is related to the calendar effect of funds and the central bank's liquidity management [10]. - **Short - end and Term Spread Analysis**: The short - end is in a high - allocation value range as the risk of capital tightening is low. The long - short term spread has fully priced in the risk preference repair, and the current pricing is close to the historical average, which can control the long - end upward risk. The long - end downward drive depends on risk preference decline or monetary easing [12]. - **Risk - aversion and Trading Advice**: The risk - aversion sentiment comes from international geopolitics with high uncertainty. The redemption problem still disturbs the market, and the yield is about to fall to the chip - intensive area. Bond market trading is "better to stop than to chase" [14][15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The prices of iron ore, gold,菜粕, palm oil,生猪,焦煤,螺纹钢,白银,中长期国债, glass, methanol, PVC,原油,沥青, and rubber are expected to show different trends, with suggestions for corresponding trading strategies provided [1][3][4]. Summary by Variety Iron Ore - Mysteel statistics show that the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports increased by 904,000 tons week-on-week, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 98,700 tons. The inventory at 45 ports increased by 242,200 tons, and the daily port clearance volume decreased by 94,000 tons. The number of ships in port increased by 5. - Supply is stable, and demand is still supported. Some steel mills have restocking plans after the holiday. However, Sino-US trade relations may impact prices. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate [1]. Gold - US Vice President Vance released some easing signals regarding Trump's latest tariff threat. - The tariff news last Friday led to a sharp drop in overseas stock markets and an upgrade in market risk aversion. Gold has limited upward momentum at present. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [1]. 菜粕 - In the 41st week of 2025, the菜籽 crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 14,000 tons, with an operating rate of 3.73%. The estimated volume for next week is the same. - As the temperature drops, the rigid demand for 菜粕 is expected to decline. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate. Future policy changes, upstream operations, and other factors should be monitored [3]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian government expects an increase in crude palm oil production in 2026 due to factors such as increased fresh fruit bunch production and improved oil extraction rates. - International trade situations are variable, and the future trends of US soybeans and soybean oil are unclear. Palm oil has strong support, and opportunities to go long on dips should be noted [3]. 生猪 - As of October 10, the average slaughter weight of 生猪 increased by 0.01 kg to 123.48 kg, the weekly slaughter operating rate increased by 0.19% to 31.14%, and the prices of piglets and the profits of different breeding methods decreased. - The supply pressure on the breeding side remains high, and the demand increase is limited. Prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is recommended to wait and see [4]. 焦煤 - The capacity utilization rate of independent coke enterprises increased by 0.05% to 75.18%, and other relevant data also changed. - Supply decreased during the holiday, and demand slowed down. Spot coal prices were weakly stable. After the holiday, production will recover, but the upside will be limited. Prices are expected to fluctuate [5]. 螺纹钢 - The blast furnace operating rate, ironmaking capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of 247 steel mills decreased slightly. - Policy signals are positive, but market demand during the National Day holiday was poor, and inventory accumulated rapidly. Short-term prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [6][7]. 白银 - The preliminary value of the US consumer confidence index in October decreased slightly, and the expected inflation rate was slightly lower. - The US economy is still resilient, and risk aversion has increased. Silver has limited upward momentum. It is recommended to wait and see or try short positions with strict stop-loss [7]. 中长期国债 - China's rare earth export control is not a ban, and the impact is limited. The US's tariff increase plan has been opposed by China. - Tariffs may cause market fluctuations, and risk aversion supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, the bond market may be more bullish, but trading is more difficult. A slightly bullish and oscillatory mindset should be adopted [8]. Glass - The average price of float glass increased, the operating rate remained flat, inventory increased, and the average order days of deep-processing enterprises increased. - The profits and daily melting volume of float glass enterprises are stable, but downstream demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [9]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu increased, the domestic production capacity utilization rate increased, and inventory and other data also changed. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand has recovered. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see or short on rebounds [10]. PVC - The price of PVC in East China remained flat, the production capacity utilization rate increased, inventory increased, and the operating rate of domestic PVC pipe sample enterprises increased. - PVC supply is at a high level, and demand is still weak. The 01 contract is expected to be weakly oscillatory in the short term, and it is recommended to hold short positions cautiously [11][12]. 原油 - Trump threatened to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese goods, and the US is involved in Middle East peace negotiations. - The signing of the ceasefire agreement in the Middle East reduces geopolitical risk premiums, and OPEC+ is gradually exiting production cuts. Demand is also under pressure. It is advisable to trade short at high levels [13]. 沥青 - As of October 9, the weekly production of domestic 沥青 decreased by 6.8% week-on-week but increased by 24.9% year-on-year. Factory and social inventories changed differently. - In the fourth quarter, 沥青 supply and demand will decline seasonally, and the decline in demand is more negative for the spot market. Prices are expected to continue to fall [14]. Rubber - The prices of raw materials in Thailand and Hainan are provided, and the export volume of natural rubber in Malaysia in August decreased year-on-year but increased month-on-month. China's heavy truck sales in September increased significantly. - The rubber production season in Southeast Asia is from September to October, and supply is expected to be loose. Demand growth is limited. Although the supply-demand drive is weak, rubber is supported by low inventory and production in the medium term. It is advisable to wait and see in the short term [15].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile and weakening [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Adjusting [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 50: Volatile [4] - CSI 300: Volatile [4] - CSI 500: Downward [4] - CSI 1000: Downward [4] - 2-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 5-year Treasury bonds: Volatile [4] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Upward [4] - Gold: Strongly volatile [4] - Silver: Strongly volatile [4] - Logs: Range-bound [6] - Pulp: Consolidating [6] - Offset paper: Volatile [6] - Soybean oil: Widely volatile [6] - Palm oil: Widely volatile [6] - Rapeseed oil: Widely volatile [6] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [6] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [7] - Live pigs: Volatile and bullish [7] - Rubber: Volatile [7] - PX: Wait-and-see [8] - PTA: Volatile [8] - MEG: Wait-and-see [8] - PR: Wait-and-see [8] - PF: Wait-and-see [8] Core Views - The black sector is affected by tariff expectations, and the price trends of different varieties vary. The financial market is influenced by trade policies, and the bond and precious metal markets show specific trends. The light industrial and agricultural product markets are affected by supply and demand, policies, and weather. The polyester market has complex supply and demand situations and price trends [2][4][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: Affected by Trump's tariff pressure and supply-side news, the short-term unilateral drive is not strong, and the price trend is relatively stronger than that of finished products. The key lies in steel demand after the holiday [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Tariff expectations suppress the black sector. Domestic coking coal production is expected to be lower than last year, and the demand for coke is strong. The first round of coke price increases has been implemented, and the second round has basically failed [2] - **Rebar and hot-rolled coils**: The static valuation of rebar is low, and the supply pressure is slightly high. Focus on the demand recovery in October. The high supply and continuous inventory accumulation of finished products bring pressure, and the price needs to cooperate with rapid de-stocking to stabilize [2] - **Glass**: The short-term supply and demand pattern has not improved significantly, and the inventory has increased. The real estate completion decline drags down the demand. Pay attention to the demand repair in the peak season and production capacity policies [2] - **Soda ash**: The short-term supply and demand are basically balanced. Pay attention to the marginal repair in the peak season [2] Financial Sector - **Stock index futures/options**: The stock index closed down in the previous trading day. Soft drinks and forestry sectors had capital inflows, while semiconductors and computer hardware sectors had outflows. The market risk aversion sentiment has increased, and it is recommended to reduce risk preference [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds has declined, and the market trend is upward. Hold long positions in Treasury bonds [4] - **Gold and silver**: Gold is in a strongly volatile state. Its pricing mechanism is changing, and it is affected by factors such as the US debt problem, interest rates, geopolitical risks, and physical demand. Silver also shows a similar trend [4] Light Industry and Agriculture - **Logs**: The port daily shipment volume has increased, the supply pressure is not large, and the cost support has increased. It is expected to be range-bound [6] - **Pulp**: The spot market price has mixed trends, and the cost support has increased. However, the demand improvement is uncertain, and it is expected to consolidate at the bottom [6] - **Offset paper**: The spot market price is stable, the production is relatively stable, and the demand is expected to improve. It is expected to be volatile [6] - **Oils and fats**: The global trade situation is deteriorating, and the supply of oils and fats is abundant. It is expected to continue the wide-range volatile pattern [6] - **Meal products**: The global trade relationship has deteriorated, and the supply pressure of meal products is increasing. It is expected to be volatile and bearish [6] - **Live pigs**: The average transaction weight is declining, the supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be volatile and weak in the short term [7] - **Rubber**: The supply pressure in Yunnan has decreased, and the production in Hainan is lower than expected. The demand and inventory situation are complex, and it is expected to be volatile [7] Polyester Industry - **PX**: The supply and demand are increasing, and the price follows the oil price [8] - **PTA**: The supply and demand have marginally improved, but the terminal orders are weaker than expected. The price follows the cost [8] - **MEG**: The port inventory has increased, the supply pressure has increased, and the short-term cost fluctuates greatly [8] - **PR**: The post-holiday replenishment is weak, and the market may be volatile and weak [8] - **PF**: The cost support is still weak, but the downstream start-up is stable. It is expected to be volatile and sorted [8]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has announced a 100% tariff increase on Chinese imports, leading to a surge in gold prices and a strong performance in the rare earth sector [1] Group 1: Gold Market - On October 13, gold prices on Comex futures reached a new historical high of $4060 per ounce due to the announcement of tariffs [1] - The gold ETF (518680) opened with over a 2% increase and has seen a year-to-date rise of nearly 55%, ranking first among 14 gold ETFs over the past year [1] - As of October 10, the gold ETF (518680) reached a record share of 452 million, the highest since its listing and the largest among similar ETFs [1] Group 2: Rare Earth Sector - The rare earth ETF (159713) experienced a peak increase of over 3% in early trading, closing with a rise of 2.52% [1] - Notable stocks within the index include Jiuling Technology, which rose over 14%, and AnTai Technology, which hit the daily limit, while Baogang Co. increased by over 9% [1] Group 3: Tariff Impact - President Trump announced that starting November 1, a 100% tariff will be imposed on Chinese imports, which is an additional charge on top of existing tariffs [1] - The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all critical software" on the same date, indicating a significant rise in tariff risks [1] - Recent market sentiment driven by risk aversion is expected to continue supporting the prices of gold and other resource commodities in the medium to long term [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a significant increase in gold stocks, driven by rising gold prices and geopolitical tensions [1] - As of the report, several gold stocks saw notable gains: Zijin Mining International rose by 5.44% to HKD 137.5, Datong Gold increased by 5.38% to HKD 0.49, Chifeng Jilong Gold surged by 3.87% to HKD 33.82, and others followed suit [1] - On October 13, spot gold prices exceeded USD 4060 per ounce, marking a new historical high [1] Group 2 - The article mentions that U.S. President Trump announced a 100% tariff on Chinese imports starting November 1, which adds to existing tariffs and raises significant trade risks [1] - The U.S. will also implement export controls on "all critical software" on the same date, further escalating geopolitical tensions [1] - Guosen Securities expresses a positive outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term, suggesting that the proportion of gold in individual asset allocation should be between 2-10%, while institutional allocations could be increased [1]

【编者语】 国庆长假归来，资本市场已经悄悄换了一片天。黄金闪耀、A股起舞、全球央行政策转向......这个假期，资本市场的精彩程度丝毫不输热门景区。我们 梳理了六大值得关注的市场看点，带你快速读懂假期期间发生的那些"资本大戏"。你的持仓，准备好了吗？ 【免责声明】 本文由北京明德蓝鹰投资咨询有限公司撰写，仅为行业研究与商业案例以及探讨市值管理问题之目的而分享，不构成任何投资建议。我们所采用的信 息均来自公开披露资料，但我们无法保证其完整性与准确性。文中所有对公司的提及均旨在进行技术、模式或竞争格局分析，绝非股票推荐。请您知 悉，所有投资决策均伴随风险。我们强烈建议您基于个人独立判断并寻求专业顾问的意见。请务必谨慎决策，风险自担。 朋友们，节后开盘是不是感觉错过了一个亿？这个国庆，资本市场可比景区热闹多了，从黄金冲破天际到A股节后发红包，从美联储的"鸽声嘹亮"到 原油价格的"跌跌不休"……今天咱们就来聊聊这些比你假期还"刺激"的资本大戏。 热点一：黄金破4000美元，闪闪发光 国际金价在假期期间突破每盎司4000美元大关，创下历史新高。节后A股开盘，黄金板块直接起飞，多只黄金股涨停。 点评：这金光闪闪的行情，比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of precious metals, particularly gold, is significantly influenced by the interplay of monetary policy, risk aversion, and geopolitical tensions, especially during escalations in the US-China trade conflict [2][4]. Group 1: Historical Context of Precious Metals Performance - Since 2018, several escalations in the US-China trade conflict have led to increased demand for safe-haven assets, with gold prices rising in response to heightened market volatility and geopolitical risks [3]. - Historical data indicates that when global monetary policy becomes more accommodative, particularly with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, it tends to depress the dollar and real interest rates, providing a foundation for rising gold prices [2][4]. - The combination of trade tensions and existing geopolitical risks can significantly enhance the attractiveness of gold, leading to increased capital inflows into the precious metals market [2][4]. Group 2: Current Market Analysis - Current market conditions show a notable increase in risk and uncertainty, with threats of significant tariffs on Chinese goods and ongoing government shutdowns in the US exacerbating trade tensions and economic concerns [5]. - Expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in October and December, along with a trend towards more accommodative monetary policy, are likely to enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset in the short term [6]. - Silver may face weaker performance compared to gold due to potential suppression of industrial demand amid market uncertainties, despite previous significant price increases and existing tightness in the physical silver market [6].

南方财经记者 翁榕涛 实习生 李欣彤 马雨欣 消息面上，除美联储释放的鸽派信号之外，桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧公开表示黄金"比美元更具避风港 作用"，进一步强化了市场对贵金属的配置信心。地缘政治方面，中东局势再现波折，推动避险情绪升 温。 光大期货认为，下半年金价将继续呈现"高位震荡、中枢上移"的特征，预计COMEX黄金期货价格在 3400~3700美元/盎司区间运行。 国庆节后的首周，国内大宗商品期货涨跌不一，贵金属、黑色系及基本金属板块领涨，能源化工板块及 部分农产品显著回落。 10月9日至12日期间，就国内期货市场具体来看，能源化工板块，燃油周下跌3.00%、原油下跌3.71%； 黑色系板块，铁矿石周上涨1.86%、焦煤上涨3.11%、焦炭上涨2.68%；基本金属板块，沪锌周上涨 2.04%、沪铜上涨3.37%、沪铝上涨1.45%；贵金属板块，沪金周上涨3.11%、沪银上涨1.50%；农产品板 块，鸡蛋周下跌7.64%、生猪下跌8.38%、豆粕下跌0.20%、棕榈油上涨2.28%。 交易行情热点 热点一：国际金价突破历史新高 供需与政策共振支撑高位运行 节日期间，国际金价强势上涨。受美国联邦政府停摆问题持 ...