Report Title - The report is titled "Hualian Futures Feed Weekly Report: Pay Attention to Weather Speculation in US Soybean Main Producing Areas in July and August, Soybean Meal May Be Range-Bound with an Uptrend in the Short Term" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoint - Given the uncertainty of China-US trade policies and the potential drought in US soybean producing areas, soybean meal is expected to be range-bound with an uptrend in the short term [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Viewpoint and Strategy Fundamental Viewpoint - In the US, rainfall in the Midwest main producing areas in the next half - month is generally unfavorable for soybean growth. In South America, it is the peak season for Brazilian soybean exports, and the premium of Brazilian soybeans has slightly rebounded. In China, the arrival volume of imported soybeans will continue to increase in the next two months, and soybean meal inventory will continue to rise, but it is still at a historical low for this period, and downstream demand will pick up in the second half of the year, which is positive for domestic soybean meal prices [4] Strategy Viewpoint and Outlook - **Unilateral**: The support level of soybean meal 2509 is recommended to refer to 2850. For options, it is recommended to continue holding out - of - the - money call options on soybean meal. **Arbitrage**: Stay on the sidelines for now. **Outlook**: Monitor the weather in US soybean producing areas, the arrival of imported soybeans, domestic soybean meal demand, and China - Canada and China - US trade relations. Overall, soybean and rapeseed meal are expected to be range - bound with an uptrend in the short term [6] 2. Industrial Chain Structure - No specific content about the industrial chain structure is summarized in the text other than the title 3. Futures and Spot Markets - Last week, soybean meal futures were range - bound with an uptrend, mainly due to the indirect positive impact of the US biofuel policy on US soybeans. The June USDA report made no adjustments to soybean data and was neutral. The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated widely and is currently at a mid - level historically, so it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. The 5 - 9 spread of soybean meal was range - bound with a downtrend, and it is also recommended to stay on the sidelines [15][16][20][23] 4. Supply Side - **US Soybean Sales Data**: As of May 29, 2025, the net sales volume of US soybeans in the market year was 61,394 tons. **US Soybean Pressing Data**: As of the week of June 13, 2025, the US soybean pressing profit was $1.87 per bushel, a 25.50% increase from the previous week and a 16.52% decrease from the same period last year. **China's Soybean Import Volume**: In May 2025, China imported 1.3918 million tons of soybeans, a month - on - month increase of 783,700 tons and a year - on - year increase of 369,600 tons (36.16%). From January to May 2025, the cumulative import volume was 3.7108 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 25,600 tons (0.69%). **China's Rapeseed Import Volume**: Data charts are provided but no specific import volume information is summarized. **Domestic Soybean and Rapeseed Pressing Data**: Data charts are provided but no specific pressing volume information is summarized [30][36][39] 5. Demand Side - **Pig Prices and Breeding Profits**: Data charts of Chinese commercial pig slaughter average price, pig - grain ratio, self - breeding profit of pigs, and purchased - pig breeding profit are provided but no specific data analysis is summarized. **Chicken Breeding Profits**: Data charts of white - feather broiler breeding profit and laying hen breeding profit are provided but no specific data analysis is summarized [54][58][63] 6. Inventory - **Domestic Soybean and Soybean Meal Inventory**: As of June 13, the national port soybean inventory was 5.996 million tons, a 1.75% decrease from the previous week and an 8.59% increase from the same period last year; domestic oil mill soybean meal inventory was 410,000 tons, a 7.19% increase from the previous week and a 58.79% decrease from the same period last year. **Domestic Feed Mill Soybean Meal Physical Inventory Days**: As of June 20, 2025, the physical inventory days of domestic feed enterprises' soybean meal were 7.74 days, a 11.75% increase from June 13 and a 4.08% increase from the same period last year. **Domestic Rapeseed and Rapeseed Meal Inventory**: As of June 13, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 174,000 tons, a decrease of 28,000 tons from the previous week; rapeseed meal inventory was 15,500 tons, a decrease of 3,500 tons from the previous week; and the unexecuted contract was 55,500 tons, an increase of 4,500 tons from the previous week [71][74][76]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 豆类 | 报告 专业研究·创造价值 生猪 2025 年 6 月 19 日 豆类 美豆需求疲软 天气与政策仍存隐忧 核心观点 美国农业部 6 月报告虽维持美豆 2025/26 年度库存和价格预测不变， 但凸显了需求疲软的压力，全球大豆 2025/26 年度库存因中国压榨下调 而上调，强化供应宽松格局。同时，美豆需求坍塌表现为对华出口停滞和 南美替代固化，推动中美贸易格局质变为"供应链隔离"。全球压榨需求 收缩和美豆粕出口压力增加进一步加剧市场担忧，未来焦点转向 6 月末 种植面积报告和天气风险。 EPA 大幅提高生物燃料掺混目标并限制进口 RINs 的政策提案，是点 燃美国大豆压榨需求进一步扩张的导火索。该政策将显著提升豆油在生 柴中的占比和消费量，进而大幅增加美豆压榨需求。尽管美国压榨产能持 续扩张，但需求的激增将使得本已处于历史低位的 2025/26 年度美豆库 存面临更大压力，加剧美豆新作紧平衡格局。同时，北美压榨量的提升将 对四季度全球豆粕市场形成冲击，与南美压榨旺季及阿根廷关税调整叠 加，可能加剧区域豆粕过剩风险。考虑到美豆供需结构高度依赖 EPA ...

安粮期货研究报告 安粮期货商品研究报告 豆粕：大豆供应压力仍存，期价区间震荡 安粮期货研究所 2025 年 6 月 16 日 投资咨询业务资格 皖证监函【2017】203 号 研究所 农产品小组 研究员：李雨馨 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 助理研究员： 朱书颖：从业资格证号：F03120547 初审： 沈欣萌：从业资格号： F3029146 投资咨询号： Z0014147 复审： 李雨馨： 从业资格号：F3023505 投资咨询号：Z0013987 总部地址：合肥市包河区花园大道 986 号安粮中心 23-24 层 客服热线： 400—626—9988 网站地址：www.alqh.com 1 / 7 安粮期货研究报告 豆粕：短线或区间震荡 一、宏观分析 中 美 会 谈 结 束 ，就 落 实 两 国 元 首 6 月 5 日 通 话 重 要 共 识 和 巩 固 日 内 瓦 经 贸 会 谈 成 果 的 措 施 框 架 达 成 原 则 一 致 。 二、基本面分析 （ 1） 成 本 端 市 场 消 化 利 多 因 素 ， CBOT 大 豆 先 小 幅 反 弹 后 因 生 物 燃 料 政 ...

1. Report Type and Date - Report type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: June 17, 2025 [2] 2. Researchers - Nie Jiayi (Stock Index), contact: 021 - 60635735, email: niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F03124070 [3] - He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), contact: 18665641296, email: hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3008762 [3] - Huang Wenxin (Macro Treasury Bond and Container Shipping), contact: 021 - 60635739, email: huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com, futures qualification number: F3051589 [3] 3. Market Review - On June 16, the Wind All - A Index rose with reduced volume, opening and then oscillating higher, closing up 0.54%. Among index spot, the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed up 0.25%, 0.32%, 0.48%, and 0.68% respectively, with small - and medium - cap stocks performing better. In index futures, futures generally outperformed spot. The IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed up 0.35%, 0.50%, 0.47%, and 0.71% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price) [6] - Detailed data on stock index futures and spot, including closing price, daily change, daily amplitude, trading volume, trading value, open interest, and change in open interest, are provided in Table 1 [7] 4. Market Outlook - In the external market, the latest US CPI data released last week was lower than expected, strengthening the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. In the tariff war, the overall tone of Sino - US trade conflict tends to ease, but the second - round meeting results were not beyond expectations. The market trading logic is gradually shifting to the domestic economic fundamentals [8] - In China, multiple economic data were released today. In the scenario of "rush to export" and "rush to re - export", although the growth rate of May's foreign trade data slowed down, it still showed resilience. The actual effect of the easing tariff war may be reflected in June. The total retail sales of consumer goods exceeded expectations, but infrastructure and manufacturing investment slowed down, and the decline in real estate investment widened, still dragging down economic performance [8] - Overall, as Sino - US trade relations ease, the market trading logic returns to the domestic economic fundamentals. Technically, the Shanghai Composite Index is still hovering at a key resistance level, and the trading volume has not further broken through. The short - term callback pressure may increase. It is recommended to maintain a medium - to - low position for long positions [8][9] 5. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including the performance of major domestic indexes, market style performance, industry sector performance (Shenwan Primary Index), trading volume of the Wind All - A Index, trading volume of stock index spot, trading volume and open interest of stock index futures, basis trend of main contracts, and inter - delivery spread trend [11][15][18][21][23] 6. Industry News - From January to May, the national real estate development investment was 362.34 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%; among them, residential investment was 277.31 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.0% [31] - In May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 413.26 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.4%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 373.16 billion yuan, an increase of 7.0%. From January to May, the total retail sales of consumer goods were 2,031.71 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0%. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles were 1,843.24 billion yuan, an increase of 5.6% [31]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton spinning market is entering a traditional demand off-season in June, but the easing of China-US trade relations has positively impacted textile and apparel exports, leading to a recovery in market sentiment. However, the off-season effects are deepening, with a decline in downstream fabric factory operations and reduced orders for spinning enterprises, resulting in increased inventory pressure. Therefore, cotton yarn prices are expected to fluctuate downward in June [1][6][7]. Group 1: Cotton Yarn Market Performance - In May, cotton yarn prices showed a slight upward trend, but the average price still decreased compared to April. The average price of cotton yarn was approximately 20,747 yuan/ton, down 1.84% month-on-month and 8.33% year-on-year [2]. - The cotton spinning industry chain saw improved conditions in May, with cotton prices rising significantly, providing strong support for cotton yarn prices. The average inventory days for pure cotton yarn in large-scale spinning enterprises decreased by 3 days to 29 days [2][4]. Group 2: Export Trends - In April, China's textile and apparel export value was approximately 24.19 billion USD, showing a year-on-year increase of 1.5% and a month-on-month increase of 3.4%. Textile exports were about 12.58 billion USD, up 4.4% month-on-month, while apparel exports were around 11.61 billion USD, up 2.2% month-on-month [4]. - With the easing of China-US trade relations, textile and apparel export values are expected to continue to grow in May. However, as the off-season deepens in June, demand expectations are declining, and exports may face certain tariff barriers, indirectly affecting cotton yarn demand [4][6]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Outlook - In June, the supply side is expected to see an increase in inventory for spinning enterprises, leading to a relatively loose supply situation. On the demand side, the off-season effects are deepening, with a forecasted decline in fabric factory operations and a slowdown in inventory reduction by spinning enterprises [6][7]. - Despite the anticipated slight increase in cotton prices in June, which supports the cost side of cotton yarn, the overall market sentiment remains cautious due to limited downstream demand and potential inventory pressure on spinning enterprises [7].

Core Viewpoint - Boeing has resumed aircraft deliveries to Chinese airlines, marking a significant step in the recovery of its operations in China after a prolonged hiatus due to trade tensions [1] Group 1 - Boeing delivered a new 787-9 aircraft to Juneyao Airlines, indicating a restart of deliveries to Chinese carriers from its U.S. headquarters [1] - Prior to this delivery, Chinese airlines had suspended acceptance of Boeing aircraft due to the impact of the U.S.-China trade war [1]

我们拿下中国的稀土了，并且我们和中国达成了协议！ 这是特朗普在中美伦敦协商完之后，在自己的社交平台上发布的消息，并且特朗普还表示将对中国征收55%的关税！ 这是什么情况？我们这是打算要重新恢复对美稀土供应吗？其实我们对美国只有一个要求！ 中美达成协议 就在中美伦敦协商结束之后，特朗普就非常高调的宣布这一次谈判不仅拿到了中国的稀土，还将对中国征收55%的关税。 看起来美国现在非常威风，在这场谈判当中完胜了中国，但是实际上真的是这样吗？实际上就在特朗普激情开麦之后没多久，美国商务部长就站出来辟 谣了，称美国只是对中国维持30%的全面关税，所谓多出来的25%，是特定商品加征25%的关税。 特朗普的这个动作大家觉得熟悉吗？特朗普非常喜欢在社交媒体上宣布一些模糊不清的事情，给人一种美国看起来赢了的感觉，可是实际上怎么样呢？ 根据媒体的报道，此次会谈，双方已经达成了框架协议，美国考虑取消部分对华出口管制和技术限制措施，尤其是在芯片以及喷气式发动机零件等等领 域的限制。 而我们也会适当放宽对稀土出口管制的限制，可以说在此次的会谈中，中美双方都拿到了自己想要的东西。 要知道中美之间的问题是很多的，分歧也是巨大的，所以中美两国 ...

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-焦煤】Mysteel统计全国110家洗煤厂样本：开工率 57.36%较上期降3.23%；日均产量47.79万吨减3.67万吨；原煤 库存336.13万吨增8.72万吨；精煤库存251.47万吨增6.41万 吨。评：炼焦煤市场延续偏弱下行，煤焦基本面变化不大，依 然是偏弱的格局，铁水见顶回落，钢材淡季逐步到来，成材消 费会季节性走弱，后续或形成负反馈继续打压原料价格，但焦 煤绝对价格已跌至近年来最低水平，部分煤矿已陷入亏损，继 续下跌空间有限，后续下跌斜率或将放缓，继续缓慢探底。 【短评-原油】据央视新闻消息，当地时间6月12日，美国 总统特朗普表示，以色列对伊朗的袭击"很有可能发生"，但 他不会称之为"迫在眉睫的袭击"。 特朗普表示，他更倾向于 避免与伊朗发生冲突，并就其核计划达成和平解决方案；美国 驻以色列大使赫卡比12日在接受媒体采访时表示，如果没有美 国的批准，以色列不太可能攻击伊朗；伊朗高级官员:美国人员 撤离并不是(受到)威胁的信号。评：市场在等待伊朗和美国6月 15日恢复谈判。整体上，地缘政治，原油低库存及美国产量增 速下降对短期油价有支撑。长期关注OPEC+产 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Stock Index Futures Panoramic Daily Report" dated June 12, 2025 [1] Core Viewpoint - The overall sentiment of the A - share market is complex. Although Sino - US trade relations show signs of further easing, which is short - term positive for the market, domestic deflation pressure persists, and the import and export trade is weak under tariff impacts, limiting the upside space of the market. Currently in a policy vacuum period with limited incremental funds, large - cap blue - chip stocks are difficult to strengthen significantly, while technology stocks dominated by small and medium - cap stocks are undervalued and may rise in the short term. The strategy suggests temporarily observing for single - side trading and trying to go long IC/IM and short IF/IH for arbitrage [2] Data Summary Futures Contract Data - **Closing Prices and Changes**: IF (2506) closed at 3883.6 (+2.2), IH (2506) at 2682.2 (+0.6), IC (2506) at 5780.0 (+12.0), IM (2506) at 6156.8 (+4.8). The closing prices of their corresponding secondary contracts also had various changes [2] - **Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts like IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. showed changes, with some increasing and some decreasing [2] - **Quarter - to - Month Spreads**: The spreads between quarterly and monthly contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] - **Top 20 Net Positions**: The net positions of the top 20 in IF, IH, IC, and IM all decreased [2] Spot Market Data - **Index Values and Changes**: The CSI 300 was at 3892.20 (-2.4), SSE 50 at 2691.28 (-0.9), CSI 500 at 5799.93 (+7.0), and CSI 1000 at 6192.22 (+5.7) [2] - **Market Turnover and Balance**: A - share trading volume was 13,036.23 billion yuan (+169.46 billion), margin trading balance was 18,189.18 billion yuan (+19.24 billion), and northbound trading volume was 1432.08 billion yuan (-147.47 billion) [2] - **Other Market Data**: The proportion of rising stocks was 42.96% (-20.07%), Shibor was 1.367% (+0.006%), and the closing prices and implied volatilities of IO options also had corresponding changes [2] Economic Data - **CPI and PPI**: In May, China's CPI was down 0.1% year - on - year (same as the previous value) and down 0.2% month - on - month (previous value up 0.1%); PPI was down 3.3% year - on - year (previous value down 2.7%) and down 0.4% month - on - month (same as the previous value) [2] - **Import and Export**: In the first five months of 2025, China's total goods trade import and export value was 17.94 trillion yuan, up 2.5% year - on - year. In May, the total import and export value was 3.81 trillion yuan, up 2.7% year - on - year [2] Upcoming Events - On June 12 at 20:30, the US May PPI, core PPI, and the number of initial jobless claims for the week ending June 7 will be released. On June 13 at 22:00, the US June one - year inflation rate expectation and the initial value of the University of Michigan consumer confidence index will be released [3]

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 棉花(纱)产业日报 2025-06-12 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 态，盈利空间也持续不佳，直接影响了企业对原材料的采购意愿，在原料采购策略上表现得格外谨慎，仅 根据实际生产需求补充库存。中美贸易关系缓和，市场对贸易前景乐观情绪提振价格短期震荡偏强，但是 研究员: 张昕 期货从业资格号F03109641 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0018457 消费淡季，去库存速度缓慢，上方空间或受限。 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑棉主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 13520 | -20 棉纱 ...