证券研究报告 宏观经济点评 2025 年 05 月 16 日 美国 4 月 CPI 点评：通胀持续低于预期，关税影响暂未显现 Email:yangjianyi@lczq.com Email:shenxiayi@lczq.com 核心观点： 2025.05.12 美国 5 月宏观经济点评："负增"之下的 美国经济还能走多远？ 2025.05.08 4 月高频数据跟踪 4 月美国 CPI 同比 2.3%，低于预期，核心 CPI 同比 2.8%。4 月整体 CPI 同比增速 2.3%，预期 2.4%；环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%。核心 CPI 同比 2.8%，与前值和预期持平；环比 0.2%，预期 0.3%。4 月整体 CPI 同环比 均低于预期，核心 CPI 与预期持平，反映关税通胀压力暂未传导至月度价 格数据。叠加 5 月 12 日中美关税谈判结果超预期，市场对美国通胀走高 的担忧有所缓和。我们提示，尽管短期内特朗普关税政策边际放缓，通胀 平稳下行，但美国 2025 年关税整体水平仍然显著提升，远期通胀压力并 未解决，不宜低估下半年通胀上行压力。 非核心方面，能源价格同比下行、环比企稳，食品价格回落。受特朗普 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the current suspension of certain tariffs between the US and countries like China is expected to drive a new wave of imports, maintaining high resilience in US investment and consumption in Q2 [1] - Overall, the US economy is projected to remain supported in Q2, with the impact of tariffs likely to gradually manifest in the second half of the year. Early implementation of tax reduction policies could mitigate downward pressure [1] - Under the current tariff scenario, it is anticipated that the US will not experience runaway inflation due to the imposition of additional tariffs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is not expected to rush into interest rate cuts in the short term, with projections indicating that the 10-year US Treasury yield will remain above 4.0% [1]

Core Viewpoint - OCBC maintains its expectation of three rate cuts in 2023, each by 25 basis points, but delays the first cut from Q2 to Q3 due to the current economic conditions [1][4]. Inflation Trends - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.2% month-on-month in April, lower than the expected 0.3%, with the year-on-year increase in overall CPI decreasing from 2.4% to 2.3% [2]. - Housing prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, contributing to over half of the overall increase, while energy prices rose, offsetting declines in gasoline prices [2]. - Core CPI year-on-year growth remains at 2.8%, indicating persistent inflation in core services, while core goods prices have turned positive with a growth of 0.13% [2]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market shows signs of cooling, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 177,000 in April, which is above market expectations but not robust [3]. - The unemployment rate remains at a cyclical high of 4.2%, and average hourly earnings increased by only 0.2% month-on-month [3]. - The job vacancy rate fell to 4.3%, indicating a gradual easing of labor market tightness, with the job-to-unemployment ratio dropping to 1.02, suggesting potential impacts on unemployment if vacancies continue to decline [3]. Market Expectations - Market concerns about a U.S. recession have significantly eased, with the probability of recession dropping from 65% in early April to 38% currently [4]. - Interest rate futures reflect a cooling of rate cut expectations, with only 54 basis points of cuts priced in for the year, down from over 100 basis points in April [4]. - The expectation for a rate cut at the June FOMC meeting has been fully priced out, with only a 40% chance of a 25 basis point cut in July [4]. Treasury Yield Predictions - OCBC has slightly raised its forecast for U.S. Treasury yields due to the delayed rate cut expectations and improved market sentiment, but maintains a medium-term outlook of moderate decline [5]. - The report emphasizes that while the U.S. economy is not in a full recession, there are clear signs of slowing growth and persistent core inflation [5]. - Future economic data will be closely monitored, particularly regarding labor market conditions and service inflation, which could trigger policy adjustments [5].

转自：新华财经 新华财经北京5月15日电 美联储副主席菲利普·杰斐逊（Philip Jefferson)在周三的讲话中表示，尽管最新 数据显示美国正在逐步接近2%的通胀目标，然而未来通胀走势依旧充满变数。特别是，新一轮进口关 税措施可能成为推高物价的风险因素。 关于货币政策方向，杰斐逊重申了他在最近一次联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC)会议上支持保持利率不 变的观点。他认为，目前设定在4.25%-4.5%之间的"适度限制性"政策利率为应对未来的经济变化提供了 良好的基础。 此外，他还提到美国劳动力市场的稳定状态，并解释第一季度GDP轻微收缩主要是由于进口数据异常所 致，而非经济放缓的真实反映。尽管如此，他也注意到企业和家庭信心的下滑，表示会密切注意实际经 济活动中的任何疲软迹象。 杰斐逊预计美国经济增长将有所放缓，但仍将维持正增长。他回顾了特朗普政府时期加征关税的历史及 其带来的不确定性，这些都给美联储评估关税对物价、经济增长和就业的影响带来了困难。 编辑：崔凯 在其于纽约联储活动中发表的演讲中，杰斐逊指出4月份消费者价格指数涨幅低于市场预期，这标志着 一个积极的趋势。但他也警告称，如果当前宣布的关税政策得以实施 ...

Core Insights - The April CPI data released by the U.S. Labor Department shows a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, lower than the expected 0.3%, indicating a decline compared to February [1] - Year-on-year CPI growth is at 2.3%, the lowest level since February 2021, and core CPI growth is at 2.8%, matching expectations and previous values [1] - The overall inflation data is considered mild, but market expectations suggest inflation may rise due to U.S. trade policies [1] Inflation Components - Core goods prices increased by 0.1% month-on-month, with new car prices unchanged and used car prices down by 0.5% [2] - Furniture and bedding prices rose from 0.6% to 1.5%, while appliance, toy, and sports equipment prices saw increases, reflecting the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation [2] - Service inflation continues to decline, with housing inflation up by 0.3%, indicating persistent but stable housing inflation [2] Service Inflation Trends - Core service inflation excluding housing is at 3.01%, the lowest since December 2021, with healthcare and transportation services showing slight increases [3] - The labor market cooling and slowing wage growth are expected to contribute to a gradual decline in service inflation [3] - The stability of supply chains has reduced the risk of disruptions, allowing businesses to adjust and mitigate price increases [3] Consumer Behavior and Price Trends - Companies are reducing travel expenses, and consumers are cutting back on leisure spending, leading to a decrease in prices for flights and hotels [4] - OPEC+ has announced an increase in oil production, contributing to a continued decline in oil prices, which may offset inflationary pressures from tariffs [4] - The combined effects of reduced travel spending, falling oil prices, and slowing wage growth could counterbalance the inflation impact from tariffs [4]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **U.S. inflation data** for April and its implications on trade negotiations, particularly with **China**. The focus is on the impact of tariffs on inflation and the broader economic outlook. Core Insights and Arguments - **Inflation Trends**: April's CPI data indicates moderate inflation, with energy prices rising due to increases in natural gas and electricity, offsetting some declines in oil prices. Retail oil prices remain stable, but the processing and distribution sectors face significant price pressures [1][2]. - **Core Goods Performance**: The overall month-on-month growth rate for core goods in April was approximately 0.06%, indicating no significant tariff pressure. However, prices for goods closely related to exports from China, such as entertainment products, sports goods, and toys, have shown notable rebounds. Additionally, furniture and household goods have also seen expanded month-on-month growth rates, suggesting that tariffs on Chinese imports are beginning to exert supply-side pressure [1][2][4]. - **Core Services Resilience**: Rent remains resilient, contributing to the rise in core service inflation. In contrast, other service categories, including entertainment, airfare, and hotel prices, continue to decline, indicating a cooling in the service sector and labor market [1][3]. - **Tariff Impact on Inflation**: The transmission of tariffs to inflation remains unclear, but merchants are adjusting prices in response to disrupted expectations. The outcome of U.S.-China trade negotiations will be a critical variable affecting this transmission process. Current tariff levels are approaching the peak seen during the Great Depression, raising concerns about stagflation risks in the U.S. [1][3][4]. - **Trade Negotiations**: The U.S.-China trade negotiations are highlighted as a significant focus for the future, especially for consumer goods heavily reliant on Chinese imports. The imposition of higher tariffs on these goods will likely have a direct impact on consumer prices, such as CPI and PCE. The U.S. has imposed higher tariffs on Chinese goods compared to other regions, making the negotiation outcomes crucial for future economic pressure transmission [4][5]. Additional Important Content - **Federal Reserve's Stance**: The Federal Reserve remains in an observation phase, with no significant issues in hard data like non-farm payrolls or GDP. If June's non-farm data shows resilience, the likelihood of interest rate cuts in the first half of 2025 may be low, although the market anticipates potential cuts starting in September [2][3]. - **Potential Economic Impacts**: If tariffs continue to suppress consumer purchasing power, this could further affect service demand and employment growth. The balance between trade policy changes and economic performance will be critical for the Federal Reserve's future decisions [3][4].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the continued cooling of U.S. inflation data in April 2025, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing a year-on-year decrease to 2.3%, slightly below market expectations, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [1][6][7]. Group 1: Inflation Data Analysis - The CPI year-on-year decreased to 2.3%, down from 2.4% in the previous period, while the month-on-month change was +0.2%, compared to -0.1% previously [1][6][7]. - Core CPI remained stable at +2.8% year-on-year and increased by 0.2% month-on-month, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [1][10][11]. - The Cleveland Fed's Trimmed Mean CPI for April was 2.97%, slightly lower than the previous 2.99%, suggesting a continued decline in inflation breadth and stickiness [10][11]. Group 2: Structural Components of CPI - Food prices showed a month-on-month decrease of 0.1%, primarily driven by a drop in household food prices, which fell by 0.4% [2][8][11]. - Core goods and services prices increased month-on-month, with medical goods contributing significantly to this rise [2][11][12]. - The core services index rose by 0.3% month-on-month, higher than the previous 0.1%, indicating a rebound in service-related inflation [2][11]. Group 3: Impact of Tariffs on Inflation - The article explores why U.S. CPI did not rise despite high tariffs, attributing it to factors such as the time lag in tariff transmission to consumer prices and preemptive stockpiling by consumers and businesses [3][14][15]. - The significant drop in egg prices, which fell by 12.7% month-on-month, also contributed to the overall CPI stability [3][14][15]. - The article notes that despite the reduction in effective tariff rates, the overall tariff levels remain higher than before the so-called "liberation day," indicating ongoing inflationary pressures [4][16][17]. Group 4: Market Reactions and Economic Outlook - The cooling inflation data positively impacted overseas risk assets, with U.S. stock markets showing strong performance, particularly in the technology sector [5][18]. - The Nasdaq index rebounded by 1.6%, with Nvidia's stock rising approximately 6% due to anticipated sales to Saudi Arabia [5][18]. - The article suggests that the current economic environment, characterized by stable inflation and reduced recession risks, may lead to a more favorable outlook for U.S. economic fundamentals [17][18].

美国劳工统计局最新数据显示，4月CPI同比上涨2.3%，为自2021年2月以来最低水平，低于预期的 2.4%。核心CPI同比增长2.8%，为近四年来的最低增速。整体通胀形势继续降温。尽管如此，华尔街分 析师们仍然预计，特朗普关税政策所驱动的价格大幅上涨趋势将在未来几个月变得更加明显。如何看待 这份通胀数据，释放了怎样的信号？对未来几个月的通胀走势又有怎样的判断？我们来连线东方金诚研 究发展部高级副总监白雪。 关税传导效应未充分显现 白雪：4 月，美国通胀数据继续降温。一方面，2024 年同期基数较高；另一方面，4 月国际原油价格大 幅下降，受此影响，4 月通胀数据相对较低。 实际上，4 月的通胀数据中，关税传导效应已初步显现。例如，部分美国从中国进口的商品，如家电、 体育用品、床上用品等，价格环比涨幅扩大。然而，这种传导效应并不充分，这主要是由于美国企业在 关税政策实施后出现了抢进口和囤库存的现象。进口商通过消耗库存或暂时不提高价格向消费者传导， 导致关税冲击在 4 月的 CPI 数据中并未充分显现。 美通胀下行趋势仍可能逆转 白雪：从后续走势看，5 月 12 日，中美在日内瓦的经贸会谈取得进展，这有望暂时缓 ...

Macro Insights - US inflation continues to decline, with April CPI data showing a drop below expectations, indicating a weakening inflation risk due to tariff adjustments [3] - The reduction in tariffs suggests a decrease in recession risks for the US, allowing the Federal Reserve to adopt a more patient approach in observing economic changes [3] Industry Insights - MXD6, a high-performance engineering plastic, is experiencing high demand for lightweight and barrier packaging materials, indicating a broad market potential [4] - The company has been a leader in ion exchange and adsorption resin for nearly 30 years, focusing on R&D, production, and sales [5] - The company has achieved the top market share in the ADAS integrated machine market in 2024, with expectations for hardware shipments to exceed ten million units in 2025 [8] Company Performance - JD Group reported a 1Q2025 revenue of 301.08 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.8%, and a GAAP net profit of 10.89 billion yuan, up 52.7% year-on-year [9] - The company also reported a Non-GAAP net profit of 12.76 billion yuan, reflecting a 43.4% year-on-year growth [9]

2025 年 5 月 14 日 总量研究 美国通胀继续回落，关税冲击尚待显现 ——2025 年 4 月美国 CPI 数据点评 作者 分析师：高瑞东 执业证书编号：S0930520120002 010-56513108 gaoruidong@ebscn.com 分析师：刘星辰 执业证书编号：S0930522030001 021-52523880 liuxc@ebscn.com 相关研报 高关税如何影响美国通胀？——2025年3月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-04-11） 美国通胀有序降温，9 月降息 25BP 概率加 大——2024 年 7 月美国 CPI 数据点评 （2024-08-15） 美国通胀超预期回落，未来降息节奏如何？ — — 2025 年 2 月美国 CPI 数据点评 （2025-03-13） 美国通胀为何超预期上行？——2025年1月 美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-02-13） 美国核心通胀回落，降息预期升温——2024 年 12 月美国 CPI 数据点评（2025-01-16） 为什么我们认为美国通胀将低于预期？—— 2024 年 11 月 美 国 CPI 数 据 点 评 （2024 ...