【黄金期货最新行情】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月19日上海黄金现货价格报价772.90元/克，相较于期货主力价格（775.06元/克）贴水2.16 元/克。 美国通胀压力依旧顽固，但劳动力市场降温，美联储决策困难下降息预期仍有摇摆，关注本周21~23日 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上鲍威尔是否提前透露增量信息。 【机构观点】 | 8月19日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 775.06 | -0.13% | 121675 | 191435 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 广州期货：沪金跌0.13%至775.04元/克，沪银涨0.16%至9225元/千克。美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基在白宫举行会晤；特朗普表示，如果一切顺利，美俄乌将举行三边会谈；泽连斯基在发言中明确 表示，乌克兰需要"所有与安全相关的保障"，包括军队、武器、训练和情报。美国通胀预期上行，本周 关注杰克逊霍尔央行年会上美联储官员围绕货币政策部署的表态。十年期美债收益率涨1.37个基点至 4.332%，贵金属价 ...

Group 1 - The core driver of inflation risk in the U.S. is the significant increase in import tariffs, with the effective tariff rate rising to 9.1% as of June 2025, an increase of 6.9 percentage points since the beginning of the year [1][10][20] - The current inflation in core goods is primarily driven by high import dependence and low inventory levels in categories such as furniture, apparel, and leisure goods [1][10][28] - The direct impact of tariffs has been significant, with import prices rising approximately 5.4% since early March, indicating that about half of the tariff burden is passed on to consumer prices [1][10][30] Group 2 - The indirect effects of tariffs on domestic goods have shown a slowing trend, with price increases for domestic products that are similar to imported goods starting to decelerate from April onwards [1][10][35] - The correlation between tariffs and inflation increased from March to May but has not deepened further, suggesting a weakening relationship [1][10][39] - If the effective tariff rate rises to 15%, it is estimated that U.S. goods prices could increase by approximately 2.8% based on the average import dependence of 37% and a transmission coefficient of 1/2 [1][10][50] Group 3 - Service inflation has not shown a trend of significant rebound, with core service inflation being the largest contributor to nominal inflation, but expected to be dragged down by a weakening labor market [2][11][54] - The nominal Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to peak at around 3.2% in December 2025, followed by a gradual decline to approximately 2.3% by mid-2026 [2][11][70] - The overall inflation risk is expected to be lower than market expectations, indicating a potential for further monetary policy easing by the Federal Reserve [2][11][73]

Core Viewpoint - Current data indicates that the impact of tariffs on U.S. inflation remains relatively mild, with core CPI in May-June 2025 falling short of expectations, showing a month-on-month increase of only 0.1-0.2% [1] Group 1: Tariff Impact on Inflation - The limited impact of tariffs on inflation is attributed to several factors: significant inventory accumulation by companies, a temporary buffer against rising tariffs, a weighted import tariff rate lower than theoretical values, weak corporate demand, and low service inflation [1] - It is expected that tariffs will moderately increase U.S. core inflation in the third quarter, although there is market disagreement regarding the magnitude and duration of this inflation rise [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is likely to restart the interest rate cut cycle in September, despite anticipated inflation recovery in the third quarter having limited constraints on the Fed's rate cuts in 2025 [1] - Short-term inflation recovery is expected to have a limited impact on U.S. Treasury yields, although the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" Act may still exert pressure on these yields [1] Group 3: Broader Economic Considerations - Attention should be paid to potential buffers created by financial deregulation, expansion of stablecoins, and changes in U.S. Treasury issuance structure, which may influence the economic landscape [1] - The long-term outlook suggests that the U.S. dollar may face depreciation pressure [1]

Group 1: Inventory and Inflation Dynamics - U.S. companies hoarded cheap inventory early in the year, leading to a less pronounced inflation effect than expected, with core CPI rising in June and July but not as significantly as anticipated[1] - The key factor in the inflation dynamics is the U.S. bonded zone policy, which provides temporary tax relief for companies, alleviating cost pressures[1] - Approximately 10% of total U.S. imports are stored in bonded zones, allowing companies to defer tax payments until goods leave these zones[1][18] Group 2: Bonded Zone Impact on Taxation and Imports - Following significant tariff increases in April, the bonded zone system transitioned from a temporary relief mechanism to a major tax avoidance channel for companies[2] - The net inflow of goods into bonded zones showed significant volatility, dropping to -1.6% in March before surging to 2.6% by June, nearing historical highs[2][21] - The proportion of goods imported from China into bonded zones increased from -7.7% in February to 7.3% in June, marking a new high since 2010[2][28] Group 3: Future Inflation Pressures - The relationship between bonded zone net inflows and actual inventory levels is inversely correlated, indicating a strategic shift from immediate imports to bonded storage[3][43] - The anticipated peak of inflationary pressure may occur in Q4, as early inventory is depleted and goods from bonded zones enter the market, coinciding with potential interest rate cuts in September[3][50] - Risks include aggressive policies leading to stagflation or recession, unexpected tariff expansions, and geopolitical tensions causing market volatility[3][50]

Core Insights - The core viewpoint indicates that the U.S. July core CPI has ended a five-month streak of underperformance, leading to increased market bets on interest rate cuts, which in turn strengthens expectations for an economic soft landing [2] - The July PPI significantly exceeded expectations, reflecting ongoing tariff impacts, with uncertainties surrounding the duration and extent of these effects on wholesale, retail, and end-consumer prices [2][6] - The market's current pricing of 0.845 rate cuts in September and 2.187 cuts for the year is deemed overly optimistic, with potential for a downward adjustment in rate cut expectations before the September FOMC meeting [2][6] Economic Indicators - The U.S. July retail sales increased by 0.5%, slightly below the expected 0.6%, but showed resilience with two consecutive months of growth despite a decline in consumer confidence [4] - The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model predicts a Q3 2025 GDP growth of 2.5%, while the New York Fed's Nowcast model estimates it at 2.06% [5] Inflation Data - The July CPI increased by 0.2% and the core CPI by 0.32%, both meeting expectations, indicating continued moderate inflation [6] - The July PPI rose by 0.95%, significantly above the expected 0.2%, with core PPI also reaching its highest level since 2022, suggesting that tariff pressures are being transmitted to wholesalers [6] Market Reactions - Following the CPI data, the market saw a rise in equities and long-term bond yields, but subsequent PPI data and retail sales growth led to a cooling of rate cut expectations, impacting stock performance [3][4] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices rose by 0.94% and 0.81%, respectively, while the 10-year Treasury yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.316% [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - Fed officials have expressed skepticism about aggressive rate cuts, with some suggesting that a 50 basis point cut in September may not align with the current economic environment [4] - The expectation is for two rate cuts this year, potentially in September and December, with a more pessimistic scenario predicting only one cut in October [2][6]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, supported by recent inflation and employment data [1][4][5] - The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a moderate increase, with overall inflation rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, while core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month and 3.1% year-on-year [4][5] - The impact of tariffs on inflation has been unexpectedly mild, with energy prices down 1.1% and food prices stable, indicating that businesses are absorbing most of the additional costs associated with tariffs [4][5] Group 2 - The U.S. job market shows signs of weakness, with potential downward revisions to employment data, which may pressure the Federal Reserve's stance [6][8] - The dollar index has resumed its downward trend, indicating potential weakness for the dollar unless other major central banks act more quickly to ease policies [8][9] - The U.S. stock market has rebounded significantly since April, driven by strong earnings recovery, particularly in the technology sector, which has outperformed other sectors [11][12] Group 3 - The Nasdaq index is approaching the 24,000-point mark, with potential for further gains if it can maintain levels above 24,100 points [12] - The overall market rebound is concentrated among a few leading companies, with the S&P 500 index showing that only a small percentage of companies have reached new highs [11]

Core Viewpoint - Domestic precious metal futures showed a mixed performance, while international precious metals experienced gains, indicating divergent trends in the market [1][2]. Price Trends - As of August 18, domestic gold futures (沪金) were priced at 777.68 CNY per gram, with a gain of 0.32%, and silver futures (沪银) at 9240 CNY per kilogram, up 0.35% [1]. - Internationally, COMEX gold was quoted at 3396.00 CNY per ounce, reflecting a 0.42% increase, while COMEX silver was at 38.14 USD per ounce, up 0.33% [1]. Market Data - The opening, highest, and lowest prices for key precious metals on August 18 were as follows: - 沪金: Opened at 775.92 CNY, peaked at 777.80 CNY, and dipped to 774.32 CNY per gram [2]. - 沪银: Opened at 9176.00 CNY, reached a high of 9255.00 CNY, and a low of 9154.00 CNY per kilogram [2]. - COMEX Gold: Opened at 3382.40 USD, peaked at 3403.60 USD, and fell to 3368.00 USD per ounce [2]. - COMEX Silver: Opened at 38.04 USD, reached a high of 38.25 USD, and a low of 37.83 USD per ounce [2]. Economic Indicators - The U.S. July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, below the expected 2.8%, while the core CPI increased by 3.1%, exceeding the forecast of 3.0% [3]. - The July PPI, however, rose by 3.3% year-on-year, surpassing expectations and indicating potential inflationary pressures [3]. - Market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September have fluctuated, with a 84.6% probability for a 25 basis point cut [3]. Market Analysis - Recent data from the U.S. shows a mixed outlook on inflation, leading to reduced expectations for the extent of rate cuts in September, although supportive conditions for future cuts remain [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Volatile [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - London gold dropped 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The 10-year US Treasury yield was 4.32%, inflation expectation was 2.38%, and the real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, the S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, the RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed [2] - After the US officially announced no additional tariffs on gold, the price difference between London gold and New York gold quickly converged, leading to a weakening of global gold prices. The market returned to trading based on fundamental data. US inflation has room to continue rising, and the Fed is in a dilemma on monetary policy. The current data supports a 25bp interest rate cut. Attention should be paid to Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting [3] - Geopolitical factors did not bring incremental positive news, and the Trump-Putin talks did not reach an agreement but did not deteriorate either [4] - In the short term, the gold price remains in a range-bound state, with resistance formed around $3,400. Short-term gold prices need to be cautious about correction risks [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Gold High-Frequency Data Weekly Changes - The basis of the domestic market (spot - futures) was -2.71 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 1.82 yuan or -40.2%. The price difference between domestic and foreign futures (domestic - foreign) was -5.09 yuan/gram, a week-on-week change of 5.70 yuan or -52.8%. The Shanghai Futures Exchange's gold inventory was 36,345 kilograms, a week-on-week increase of 300 kilograms or 0.8%. The COMEX gold inventory was 38,636,332 ounces, a week-on-week increase of 51,345 ounces or 0.13%. The SPDR ETF's gold holding was 965.36 tons, a week-on-week increase of 5.72 tons or 0.60%. The CFTC's net long position in gold speculation was 154,226 contracts, a week-on-week decrease of 7,585 contracts or -4.7% [12] 2. Financial Market Related Data Tracking 2.1 US Financial Market - The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and the US Treasury yield was 4.32%. The S&P 500 index rose 0.94%, and the VIX index dropped to 15. The US overnight secured financing rate was 4.34%. Oil prices fell 0.1%, and US inflation expectation was 2.38% [16][19] 2.2 Global Financial Markets - Stocks, Bonds, Currencies, and Commodities - Developed country stock markets all rose, with the S&P 500 rising 0.94%. Most developing country stock markets rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 1.7%. The real interest rate rebounded to 1.93%, and the gold price fell 1.8%. The spot commodity index declined, and the US dollar index fell. US and German bonds rose, with a US - German yield spread of 1.53%. The UK Treasury yield was 4.69%, and the Japanese bond yield was 1.57%. The euro appreciated 0.52%, the pound sterling appreciated 0.75%, the yen appreciated 0.37%, and the Swiss franc appreciated 0.19%. The US dollar index fell 0.33% to 97.8, and non - US currencies showed mixed performance [24][25][29] 3. Gold Trading - Level Data Tracking - The net long position in gold speculation dropped to 154,000 contracts, and the SPDR Gold ETF's holding rebounded to 965 tons. The RMB showed a volatile trend, and the discount of Shanghai gold narrowed. Gold and silver prices corrected, and the gold - silver ratio dropped to 87.8 [34][36] 4. Weekly Economic Calendar - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US July new home starts and building permits - Wednesday: China's August LPR - Thursday: France, Germany, the Eurozone, the UK, and the US August manufacturing PMI; Fed monetary policy minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The rating for the US dollar is "oscillation" [5] Core Views of the Report - The market risk preference remains high, with most stock markets rising and most bond yields increasing. The US inflation is higher than expected, and the US dollar index is oscillating at a high level. The market will continue to play the game around economic data, and stock market volatility will increase. It is expected that the market risk preference will continue to rise, and the US dollar index will oscillate at a high level. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine situation needs to be continuously observed [9][36] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Global Market Overview This Week - The market risk preference remains high. Most stock markets rise, and most bond yields increase. The yield of US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The price of gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. The VIX index drops to 15. The spot commodity index closes down, and the price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel [9] 2. Market Trading Logic and Asset Performance 2.1 Stock Market - Global stock markets mostly rise, including both US and Chinese A-share markets. The S&P 500 index rises 0.94%, the Shanghai Composite Index rises 1.7%, the Hang Seng Index rises 1.65%, and the Nikkei 225 index rises 3.73%. The market returns to trading based on fundamental economic data and continues the game on the expectation of interest rate cuts. The US inflation has room to continue rising, putting monetary policy in a dilemma. The stock market volatility will increase. The domestic stock market reaches a new high, but the fundamental data is weak [10][11] 2.2 Bond Market - The yields of most global bond markets rise, and the yield of 10-year US Treasury bonds rises to 4.32%. The yields of most eurozone government bonds rise, and the yields of most emerging market bonds fall. The yield of 10-year Chinese government bonds rises to 1.75%. The domestic bond market remains weak [14][19][23] 2.3 Foreign Exchange Market - The US dollar index drops 0.33% to 97.8. Non-US currencies show mixed performance. The offshore RMB rises slightly by 0.01%, the euro rises 0.52%, the pound rises 0.75%, the yen rises 0.37%, the Swiss franc rises 0.19%, and the ringgit, rupee, real, and rand appreciate, while the Canadian dollar, New Zealand dollar, Australian dollar, Korean won, and peso depreciate [26][29] 2.4 Commodity Market - The price of spot gold drops 1.8% to $3,336 per ounce. Gold is in a range-bound state in the short term. The price of Brent crude oil drops 0.1% to $67.8 per barrel. The geopolitical risk gives a certain premium, but the global crude oil demand outlook is not good, and the oil price is difficult to rise continuously. The spot commodity index oscillates and closes down [30][31] 3. Hotspot Tracking - The US inflation is higher than expected. The core CPI is 3.1%, and the PPI far exceeds expectations. The impact of tariffs on prices is obvious, and the short-term expectation of interest rate cuts falls. It is expected that a substantial interest rate cut in September is basically impossible, and a moderate interest rate cut is the basic expectation. The Russia-Ukraine conflict is still difficult to end [32][35] 4. Next Week's Important Event Reminders - Monday: US NAHB Housing Market Index - Tuesday: US new housing starts and building permits in July - Wednesday: China's LPR in August - Thursday: Manufacturing PMIs of France, Germany, the eurozone, the UK, and the US in August; Federal Reserve interest rate meeting minutes - Friday: Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (August 21 - 23) [37]

Group 1: Inflation Insights - The July CPI data showed stagnation, while the PPI unexpectedly rose by 0.9% month-on-month, indicating potential inflationary pressures[2] - Trade services were the main driver of the PPI increase, suggesting that traders may be raising prices to enhance profit margins in response to tariff impacts[15] - The transmission of PPI to CPI is expected to have a time lag, with wholesale trade growth contributing more significantly than retail trade[17] Group 2: Federal Reserve Rate Decisions - The decision to lower rates in September is seen as a political issue, while the extent of the cut is viewed as an economic question[3] - Current data trends suggest a strong likelihood of a rate cut in September, with expectations leaning towards two rate cuts within the year[3] - The anticipated rate cut may not be a solution but rather the beginning of new challenges, particularly concerning persistent inflation[26] Group 3: Economic Risks - Risks include aggressive tariff policies leading to stagflation or recession, with dual pressures from debt burdens and monetary tightening[27] - The potential for tariff expansions to exceed expectations could result in a significant slowdown in global economic growth[27] - Geopolitical tensions may increase asset price volatility, exacerbating market fluctuations[27]