Market Overview - A-shares and Hong Kong stocks rose together this week, with A-shares slightly outperforming, reaching a financing balance of nearly 2 trillion, a new high for this round [2] - The average daily trading volume in the A-share market fell to 111.2 billion, indicating a significant decline in trading activity [2] - The market showed a divergence in performance, with sectors like defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery leading gains, while pharmaceuticals, computers, and retail sectors lagged [2][22] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a balanced and slightly loose funding environment, with both government and credit bonds strengthening [2][28] - The expectation for pure bond fund returns is positive, supported by a favorable monetary policy environment due to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [2][28] - The bond market is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with a focus on coupon strategies [7] Commodity Market - Gold prices rose significantly this week, with COMEX gold briefly breaking previous highs, supported by dovish comments from the Federal Reserve and a weaker dollar [2][8] - The long-term bullish logic for gold remains intact, with recommendations to accumulate on dips, although short-term risks of price weakness exist if highs are not sustained [8][33] Overseas Market - U.S. stocks showed a recovery after a decline, with the latest non-farm payroll data falling short of expectations, increasing the likelihood of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3][9] - The European stock market rose overall, influenced by geopolitical discussions between U.S. and Russian leaders [3] - The current environment suggests a focus on diversified asset allocation in overseas markets, balancing equity investments across regions and styles [9] Stock Market Performance - The stock market saw significant weekly gains, with the CSI 1000 index and other broad indices showing notable increases [11] - The trading volume in the two markets decreased compared to the previous week, with the CSI 1000 component stocks seeing an increase in trading volume share [14][15] - The volatility of major indices like the CSI 300 and CSI 500 increased, although they remain below their historical averages [19][20] Sector Performance - In the sector performance, defense, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors showed strong weekly gains of +5.93%, +5.78%, and +5.37% respectively [22][24] - Conversely, the pharmaceutical and computer sectors experienced declines, indicating a mixed performance across different industries [22][24]

Market Overview - The AI industry chain demand expectations were boosted by related order factors, but the political bureau meeting's policy statements were moderate, leading to a pullback in market risk appetite [1] - A-shares showed a high open but low close, with the market facing pressure around the 3600-point level; growth style outperformed value style, and small-cap stocks performed slightly better than large-cap stocks [1][8] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.9%, while the CSI 300 fell by 1.8%, the ChiNext Index dropped by 0.7%, and the Wind All A Index decreased by 1.1% [1] Bond Market - Bond yields fell due to the stock-bond seesaw effect, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 2 basis points to 1.71% and the 30-year yield also down by 2 basis points to 1.95% [2] - The one-year government bond yield decreased by 1 basis point to 1.37%, while the one-year AA+ credit spread fell by 1 basis point [2] International Market - The U.S. and other countries reached trade agreements, and the Federal Reserve maintained its policy, leading to a significant rebound in the dollar index and adjustments in European and U.S. stock markets [3] - The S&P 500 fell by 2.4%, the Nasdaq dropped by 2.2%, and the European STOXX 600 decreased by 2.6%; Brent crude oil rose by 2.7% while LME copper fell by 1.4% [3] A-share Sector Performance - Among the sectors, telecommunications (3.14%), pharmaceuticals (2.73%), media (1.11%), and defense (0.66%) performed the strongest, while non-ferrous metals (-4.69%), coal (-4.56%), building materials (-3.32%), and transportation (-3.28%) were relatively weak [6] - The growth and consumer sectors showed resilience, while cyclical and stable sectors were affected by various factors [6][8] Recent Important Events - The Political Bureau meeting on July 30 acknowledged the economic recovery but shifted focus from "extraordinary counter-cyclical adjustments" to "maintaining policy continuity and stability" [9] - The emphasis is now on accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, indicating a shift towards more precise and effective financial policies [9] Federal Reserve Meeting - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, with increasing internal dissent regarding potential rate cuts [10] - The possibility of a rate cut in September has risen significantly due to recent employment data revisions and trade negotiations [11] Public Fund Weekly Issuance - A total of 28 public funds were established last week, accumulating 12.8 billion units, with a continued focus on equity funds [14] - The issuance structure has shifted from being dominated by bond funds to a more balanced approach [14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the bond market is experiencing significant pressure due to a "see-saw effect" with the equity market, leading to negative returns for bond funds and increased large redemptions [1][2][3] - As of July 25, the average return of pure bond funds in July is -0.11%, with less than 35% of products achieving positive returns, indicating widespread underperformance [2] - The recent large redemptions in bond funds are attributed to crowded trading in the bond market since June and a recovery in market risk appetite, but the fundamental factors affecting the bond market are unlikely to reverse [1][4] Group 2 - The equity market's recovery is identified as a primary driver of the bond market's pressure, with rising yields impacting the net value of fixed-income funds [3] - On July 24, 12 equity funds were launched with a total issuance scale exceeding 11 billion, contrasting with the struggles faced by bond funds [3] - Institutions maintain a positive outlook on the equity market, citing strong liquidity and optimistic sentiment, while the bond market is expected to find a new equilibrium amid adjustments [4][3] Group 3 - Concerns about a sustained redemption wave in bond funds are mitigated by the fact that recent redemptions are mainly precautionary measures from asset management institutions, without triggering a negative feedback loop [4] - The current bond market situation is characterized by high duration and leverage, making it sensitive to expectations of fundamental recovery and rising commodity prices [3][4] - Short-term opportunities in the bond market may be limited, with increased volatility expected as previous low-volatility conditions are disrupted [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond fund industry is currently facing a significant redemption wave, with a notable increase in fund outflows following a sharp market correction on July 24, leading to the largest single-day redemption scale since last year's "9.24" event [1][2]. Group 1: Redemption Trends - On July 24, the bond market experienced a substantial correction, resulting in a record single-day redemption for public bond funds, with cumulative net selling of bonds exceeding 120 billion yuan over three consecutive trading days [1][2]. - Since July 21, the net subscription index for public bond funds has remained negative, reaching -29.2 on July 24, indicating a significant outflow of funds [2]. - In July, over 40 bond funds had to adjust their net asset value precision due to large redemptions, a significant increase compared to previous months [2]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds is intensifying, with funds flowing from bond markets into equity markets as stock and commodity markets show strong performance [1][4]. - The low yield environment for bond funds has diminished their attractiveness, leading to increased risk appetite among investors and subsequent outflows from bond funds [4][5]. - As of July 28, only 140 out of 4,252 bond funds had returns exceeding 2% this year, with over 72% of pure bond funds yielding less than 1% [4]. Group 3: Fund Manager Responses - Fund managers are proactively managing redemption pressures by reducing bond holdings' leverage and duration to mitigate the impact of market fluctuations on fund net values [6]. - Communication with institutional investors is emphasized to encourage staggered redemptions, thereby minimizing the overall impact [6]. - Many bond funds are utilizing dividend distributions to retain investors, with 924 pure bond funds announcing dividends since June, compared to 848 in the same period last year [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The current redemption wave is expected to be shorter and less intense compared to previous instances, with the scale of net selling and related product pullbacks remaining within manageable limits [7]. - Some institutions are beginning to buy into bond funds amid the market correction, suggesting a balanced flow of funds rather than a one-sided outflow [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific report industry investment ratings are provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market risk preference remains high. For stock index futures, it is recommended to continue holding long positions; for stock index options, it is advisable to appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term; for treasury bond futures, the bond market sentiment is relatively warm [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Views 3.1.1 Stock Index Futures - **View**: Continue to hold long positions. The basis of IF, IH, IC, and IM current - month contracts are - 8.47 points, - 1.51 points, - 38.14 points, and - 34.15 points respectively, with a month - on - month change of - 2.38 points, 0.31 points, - 7.57 points, and - 7.24 points. The spreads between current - month and next - month contracts are 13.6 points, - 1.0 point, 73.0 points, and 78.0 points, with a month - on - month change of 3.2 points, - 0.4 point, 9.4 points, and 6.2 points. The total open interest changes are 7431 lots, 2077 lots, 3443 lots, and 4114 lots. The upward trend of the market has not changed. In August, the tone is still positive due to factors such as strong capital inflow, low probability of mid - report disappointment, and the weakening US dollar index. It is recommended to continue holding IM long positions [8]. 3.1.2 Stock Index Options - **View**: Appropriately reduce the directional exposure of small - cap stocks in the short term. The underlying market showed mixed trends and was in a volatile state. The trading volume of the options market was 6 billion and 60 million yuan, a 16.85% increase from the previous day. The sentiment indicators remained similar to the previous day, with the MO skew reaching a half - year high, indicating continued defensive sentiment in the small - cap segment. Volatility increased in small - cap and ChiNext stocks. It is recommended to continue the medium - term covered call strategy and reduce the short - term directional exposure of small - cap stocks [2][9]. 3.1.3 Treasury Bond Futures - **View**: The bond market sentiment is warm. Most treasury bond futures closed higher, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year main contracts rising by 0.03%, 0.05%, and 0.05% respectively, and the 2 - year main contract remaining flat. The yields of major inter - bank interest - rate bonds generally declined. Although the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 12.25 billion yuan in the open market, the capital market remained loose. The central bank's 70 - billion - yuan 3 - month outright reverse repurchase operation is beneficial to the bond market. However, the high market risk preference and potential factors such as the increase in long - term bond supply in the third quarter and the introduction of growth - stabilizing policies may have an impact on the bond market. Different strategies are proposed for different trading purposes [3][10][11]. 3.2 Economic Calendar - The economic calendar includes data such as the US factory orders in June, the US ISM non - manufacturing PMI in July, China's trade balance in July, the UK central bank's benchmark interest rate in August, the US initial jobless claims in the week ending August 2nd, and China's M2 money supply annual rate in July [12]. 3.3 Important Information and News Tracking - **Export**: In the first seven months, ASEAN was China's largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 4.29 trillion yuan, a 9.4% increase. The EU was the second - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 3.35 trillion yuan, a 3.9% increase. The US was the third - largest trading partner, with a total trade value of 2.42 trillion yuan, an 11.1% decrease. China's total imports and exports to the Belt and Road Initiative countries increased by 5.5% [13]. - **Retail and Commerce**: The Shanghai SASAC launched a campaign for the rejuvenation of local state - owned time - honored brands, aiming to promote brand development through various measures such as open cooperation, improving market - oriented operation mechanisms, and attracting professional talents [13]. - **Power**: Shandong Province issued a reform plan for the market - based on - grid electricity price of new energy, stating that the on - grid electricity of new energy projects such as wind and solar power will enter the power market, and the on - grid electricity price will be determined through market transactions [14]. - **Education**: The state - wide policy of exempting preschool education fees for all children in the senior class of kindergartens is expected to benefit about 12 million people this autumn [14]. 3.4 Derivatives Market Monitoring - The content only lists the categories of stock index futures data, stock index options data, and treasury bond futures data, but no specific data is provided [15][19][31].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion revolves around the relationship between the equity market, specifically the 中证 500 Index, and the bond market, particularly the 10-year government bond yield. Core Insights and Arguments - There exists a "seesaw effect" between the stock market and the bond market, where the 中证 500 Index and the 10-year government bond yield are positively correlated. Specifically, for every 100-point increase in the 中证 500 Index, the 10-year bond yield rises by approximately 0.9 basis points [1][2][5]. - The Bernanke three-factor model effectively decomposes the yield of the 10-year government bond, achieving an R-squared value of 0.85 when fitted to data since 2016. This model uses the 7-day reverse repo rate as a proxy for short-term rates, current CPI for inflation expectations, and the difference between social financing and M2 to represent economic conditions [1][4][7]. - The relationship between the 中证 500 Index and the 10-year bond yield shows a leading effect, indicating that an increase in the stock index can lead to a rise in bond yields in the following month [2][11]. - The bond market has already absorbed the impact of the recent rise in the equity market, with an increase of about 4-5 basis points in the bond yield since mid-June [14]. - If the equity market rises by an additional 5%, it could exert an extra pressure of about 3 basis points on the bond market, pushing yields to a range of 1.70% to 1.75%. A further 10% increase in the equity market could raise yields by approximately 6 basis points, resulting in a range of 1.75% to 1.80% [2][14]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content - Different equity indices have varying degrees of influence on the 10-year bond yield. The 中证 1,000 and 中证 2000 indices show weaker correlation with the bond market compared to larger indices like the 上证综指 and 深证成指 [8][9]. - The structural integrity of the model is affected by the inclusion of large-cap indices, which can disrupt the original model's structure, particularly the impact of social financing minus M2 [9]. - The current market environment has led to a notable increase in the correlation between the 中证 500 Index and the 10-year bond yield, a phenomenon not seen in the past decade. This is attributed to stable fundamental and monetary conditions [15].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced adjustments due to rising bond yields influenced by "anti-involution" policies and increasing commodity prices, while the A-share market has shown signs of recovery, leading to a "see-saw" effect between stocks and bonds [1][3]. Group 1: Market Adjustments - Since July 21, bond market interest rates have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond yield increasing from 1.66% to 1.75%, and the 30-year yield surpassing 1.99% [3]. - The adjustment in the bond market is attributed to multiple factors, including the introduction of "anti-involution" policies and rising expectations for industrial commodity prices, which have led to a passive adjustment in the bond market [3][4]. - As of August 1, the 10-year government bond yield has retreated to around 1.69%, and the 30-year yield has decreased to approximately 1.95% [3]. Group 2: Fund Performance - According to Wind statistics, from July 21 to August 1, the average return of pure bond funds, including medium- and short-term bond funds and bond index funds, was -0.12%, with nearly 80% of bond funds reporting negative returns [5][6]. - Nine funds experienced a decline of over 1%, with notable losses in funds such as Debon Ruiyu Rate Bond A (-1.37%), Huatai Baoxing Zunyi Rate Bond 6-Month Holding A (-1.30%), and others [5][6]. - The year-to-date returns for several funds have turned negative, with specific funds like Huatai Fenghe Pure Bond A and Guotai Huifeng Pure Bond A showing returns of -0.93% and -0.73%, respectively [6]. Group 3: Future Outlook - As market concerns ease, several institutions view the current bond market adjustment as a potential opportunity for reallocation [7]. - According to Fangzheng Securities, the bond market outlook remains optimistic, with expectations for a stable upward trend in August following the adjustment [7]. - Longcheng Securities suggests that the bond market will return to rationality with clearer policies, and the 10-year government bond yield is expected to stabilize around 1.7% [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent turbulence in the bond market has led to significant redemptions in bond funds, with over 70% of bond funds experiencing net value declines, while the stock market has seen increased inflows and a rise in the Shanghai Composite Index above 3600 points [2][6][12]. Redemption Wave - The bond market has experienced substantial volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% by the end of July, before retreating to around 1.70% in early August [5][6]. - In late July, over 73% of bond funds reported negative performance, with 2821 out of 3872 funds showing losses [6][7]. - Notably, the Industrial Bank's convertible bond fund saw a net value decline of 2.13%, while other funds also reported significant losses [7][8]. Institutional Behavior - The majority of bond fund investors are institutions, particularly bank wealth management products, which have been significant contributors to the recent large-scale redemptions [9][10]. - Following a significant redemption event on July 24, the People's Bank of China intervened with a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan to stabilize the market, which helped to halt the negative feedback loop [10][12]. - Analysts suggest that the redemptions were primarily defensive maneuvers by banks to prevent liquidity crises, rather than a sign of widespread capital flight [10][12]. Market Dynamics - The "see-saw effect" between the stock and bond markets has been a key factor in the recent adjustments, with rising stock market valuations attracting funds away from bonds [12][13]. - The overall risk appetite in the market has increased, leading to a shift in capital from bond funds to equity funds, particularly as the stock market continues to perform well [12][13]. - The bond market's performance has been further pressured by external factors, including rising commodity prices and negative sentiment stemming from economic indicators [13][14]. Future Outlook - Despite the recent turbulence, analysts believe that the bond market is stabilizing, with institutions beginning to resume subscriptions to bond funds as redemption pressures ease [16][17]. - The introduction of a new tax policy on bond interest income starting August 8, 2025, is expected to influence public fund raising positively, as banks may increase their outsourced investments in bond funds [18][19]. - Analysts recommend a balanced approach, suggesting that investors consider "fixed income plus" strategies in the current environment, while also being mindful of the ongoing volatility in both the stock and bond markets [20][21].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent turmoil in the bond market, highlighting the significant redemption wave faced by bond funds due to market volatility and the "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets. It notes that while bond funds experienced substantial redemptions, the situation has begun to stabilize following timely interventions by the central bank [1][5][7]. Redemption Wave - In late July, over 70% of bond funds faced net value declines, with 2821 out of 3872 bond funds reporting negative returns, representing 73% of the total [5][6]. - The 10-year government bond yield rose from a low of 1.64% in early July to a peak of 1.75% by the end of July, contributing to the volatility in bond fund net values [5][6]. - A total of 47 bond funds announced large redemptions in July, with significant net value adjustments made [5][6]. Market Dynamics - The "see-saw" effect between the stock and bond markets has been a key factor in the recent bond market adjustments, with rising stock market valuations attracting funds away from bonds [10][14]. - Institutional investors, particularly bank wealth management products, have been significant players in the bond fund redemption wave, driven by defensive strategies amid market uncertainties [7][8]. Central Bank Intervention - The central bank's timely actions, including a net injection of 601.8 billion yuan into the market, helped stabilize the bond market and mitigate the negative feedback loop caused by redemptions [7][13]. - Following the central bank's interventions, the pressure on bond fund redemptions has eased, with some institutions beginning to re-invest in bond funds [13][14]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while the stock market remains attractive, the bond market is expected to stabilize within a range, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.8% [14][15]. - The introduction of a new tax policy on bond interest income is anticipated to benefit public fund raising, potentially leading to increased investment in bond funds by banks [14][16]. - The overall sentiment in the bond market is expected to remain cautious, with strategies leaning towards "solid income+" products as a response to the current "asset shortage" in the bond market [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The equity market continues to rise, with a positive attitude towards the subsequent market in August. One can continue to hold IM long - positions in stock index futures. In stock index options, it is recommended to continue holding covered positions and guard against small - cap corrections. For treasury bond futures, the market is still digesting the Politburo meeting news, and the short - end may perform better in the future, with a relatively high odds of steepening the yield curve in the medium term [1][2][3] Summary by Directory 1. Market Views Stock Index Futures - The small - cap style is strong. The basis, spreads, and total positions of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts have different changes. The market shows that small - caps are stronger than large - caps, with multiple industry themes rising. Several market signals are worthy of attention, and the short - term market trend can be more positive. It is recommended to hold IM [7] Stock Index Options - The strategy is to use covered positions while guarding against small - and medium - cap corrections. The underlying market rose across the board, and the option market liquidity is relatively stable. The sentiment indicators show that the seller has a strong expectation of an upward trend, and there is some caution towards small - and medium - caps. Volatility fluctuates, and it is recommended to continue the covered position strategy and reduce the directional exposure on the small - cap side in the short term [8] Treasury Bond Futures - The market is continuing to digest the Politburo meeting information. The treasury bond futures rose, and the long - end of the treasury bond cash bonds performed better than the short - end. The short - term bond market sentiment has recovered, but in the medium term, it is expected to continue to fluctuate weakly. Different strategies are recommended for different trading purposes [9][10] 2. Economic Calendar - The economic data of the United States, China, and Europe in the current week are presented, including indicators such as the US factory orders, ISM non - manufacturing PMI, China's trade balance, and the UK central bank benchmark interest rate [11] 3. Important Information and News Tracking - In transportation, relevant departments have issued a plan to innovate the investment and financing model for rural roads. In the non - banking financial sector, Shanghai has introduced measures to promote the high - quality development of commercial health insurance. In the industrial Internet field, Hubei has made progress in the digital transformation of industrial enterprises [12][13] 4. Derivatives Market Monitoring - Data on stock index futures, stock index options, and treasury bond futures are to be monitored, but specific data details are not fully provided in the given content [14][18][30]