上 市 公 司 汽车 2025 年 03 月 16 日 零跑汽车 (09863) ——24 年业绩&B10 预售价双超预期 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 买入（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 03 月 14 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（港币） | 48.05 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 8877.99 | | 52 周最高/最低（港币） | 50.40/18.64 | | H 股市值（亿港币） | 642.41 | | 流通 H 股（百万股） | 1,116.41 | | 汇率（人民币/港币） | 1.0834 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势： -25% 25% 75% 125% HSCEI 零跑汽车 资料来源：Bloomberg 证券分析师 戴文杰 A0230522100006 daiwj@swsresearch.com 樊夏沛 A0230523080004 fanxp@swsresearch.com 研究支持 邵翼 A0230524120001 shaoyi@swsresearch.com 联系人 邵翼 (8621)23297818× shaoyi@swsresearch ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Leap Motor (零跑汽车) [1] Core Insights - Leap Motor's total sales for 2024 reached 293,700 units, a year-on-year increase of 103.8%, with total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, up 92.0% year-on-year. The gross margin improved to 8.4%, an increase of 7.9 percentage points year-on-year, and the net loss was reduced to 2.82 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.4 billion yuan year-on-year [4][5] - The B10 model, which is Leap Motor's first intelligent vehicle, has a pre-sale price range of 109,800 to 139,800 yuan, and is expected to significantly boost sales with its competitive features [4] - The company is expected to further improve its gross margin to over 10% in 2025, driven by scale effects, product structure optimization, and cost reductions [4] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - For 2024, the company forecasts total revenue of 32.16 billion yuan, with a projected growth rate of 92%. By 2025, revenue is expected to reach 57.01 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 77% [5] - The net profit forecast for 2025 is 98 million yuan, with a significant turnaround from previous losses, and is expected to grow to 3.12 billion yuan by 2027 [5][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 0.07 yuan in 2025, turning positive for the first time [5][6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system and business team outside the province, which is expected to support good growth in the energy drink segment nationwide [2][3]. - The "Dongpeng Water" product line has shown excellent performance, with a revenue increase of 114.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 11.263 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. The projected revenue for 2025 is 21.386 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 35.0% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2.040 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6%. The forecast for 2025 is 4.475 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 34.5% [3]. - The gross margin for 2024 is projected to be 44.8%, with a gradual increase to 47.8% by 2027 [3]. - The earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 6.40 yuan, with projections of 8.61 yuan for 2025 and 10.77 yuan for 2026 [3].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, with a net profit attributable to the parent company of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [2]. - The company is focusing on deepening its market presence in Guangdong while optimizing its distribution system and business team outside the province, which is expected to support good growth in the energy drink segment nationwide [2][3]. - The "Dongpeng Water" product line has shown excellent performance, with a revenue increase of 114.2% year-on-year in Q4 2024, contributing significantly to overall revenue growth [2]. Financial Summary - Total revenue for 2023 was 11.263 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 32.4%. For 2024, the revenue is projected to be 15.839 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 40.6% [3]. - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2023 was 2.040 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41.6%. The forecast for 2024 is 3.327 billion yuan, indicating a growth of 63.1% [3]. - The gross margin for 2024 is expected to be 44.8%, up from 43.1% in 2023, while the return on equity (ROE) is projected to be 43.3% for 2024 [3]. - Earnings per share (EPS) for 2024 is estimated at 6.40 yuan, with a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 34.45 [3].

Core Insights - The primary role of product managers is to design, develop, and optimize products to solve user or market problems, ultimately creating value for both users and the company [1] - Product managers should focus on solving worthwhile problems and delivering value in the best possible way [1] Group 1: Evaluating Problems - Is the problem worth solving? This involves determining if the issue is merely a symptom of a larger problem [2] - Assess the impact of the problem on customers by considering reach, intensity, and user segment [4] - Consider the benefits of solving the problem for the company, including potential long-term impacts on trust and profitability [5][6] - Ensure the problem aligns with the company's long-term vision and strategy [6] - Evaluate opportunity costs associated with addressing the problem versus other potential projects [7] - Analyze the consequences of inaction, categorizing problems by urgency and potential future impact [8] Group 2: Identifying Key Issues - Understand the customer's Jobs-to-be-Done (JTBD) to identify their real needs beyond product usability [11] - Recognize that creating scale effects can help establish a competitive moat, particularly in social media and transaction platforms [12] - Stay vigilant against industry disruption, as innovation is crucial to avoid becoming obsolete [13] Group 3: Solution Discovery - Product managers should lead the solution discovery process, collaborating with engineers, designers, and stakeholders [16] - Determine the level of commitment to solving the problem, including resource allocation and time investment [17] - Solutions must be feasible, sustainable, and aligned with existing resources and constraints [18] - Identify the diminishing returns threshold to avoid overcomplicating solutions that may not meet customer needs [21] - Conduct "red team exercises" to critically evaluate solutions from the perspective of competitors and identify potential weaknesses [22] Group 4: Implementation Strategy - Focus on delivering the minimum viable product (MVP) to test user reactions and iterate quickly [23] - Assess whether the product manager is the best person to solve the identified problem, especially in a growing company [24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, a significant increase of 507.2% [3] - The company’s gross profit rose from 12.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the gross margin improving from 7.6% to 10.2% [5] - The integration into the Taobao and Tmall platforms is expected to broaden the customer base and leverage the advantages of integrated supply chain solutions [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 182.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.73% compared to 2023 [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 6.20 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth rate of 905.79% [11] - The company’s operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion yuan, while the cost-to-income ratio decreased from 92.4% in 2023 to 89.8% in 2024 [4] - The average revenue per external customer slightly decreased by 4.8% to 400,000 yuan [3] Customer Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers accounted for approximately 69.9% of total revenue, with external customer revenue growing by 9.6% to 127.78 billion yuan [3] - Revenue from integrated supply chain customers was 32.29 billion yuan, a growth of 2.8%, with the number of customers increasing from 74,700 to 80,700 [3] Future Profit Forecast - The forecasted net profit for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is expected to be 6.63 billion yuan, 7.36 billion yuan, and 7.94 billion yuan respectively [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Views - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion, up 507.2% year-on-year [3] - The company’s external customer revenue remains stable at around 70%, with external customer revenue of 127.78 billion, growing by 9.6% [3] - The company’s gross profit increased from 12.7 billion in 2023 to 18.7 billion in 2024, with a gross margin rising from 7.6% to 10.2% [5] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, JD Logistics' operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion, with the cost-to-revenue ratio decreasing by 2.6 percentage points to 89.8% [4] - The company’s employee compensation rose by 11.2% to 61.5 billion, while other cost items grew at a slower pace than revenue [4] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.63 billion, 7.36 billion, and 7.94 billion respectively, indicating continued growth [5][11]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for JD Logistics [2][5] Core Insights - JD Logistics achieved a revenue of 182.84 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 9.7%, and a net profit of 7.09 billion yuan, a significant increase of 507.2% [3] - The company’s gross profit rose from 12.7 billion yuan in 2023 to 18.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the gross margin improving from 7.6% to 10.2% [4][5] - The integration into the Taobao and Tmall platforms is expected to broaden the customer base and leverage the advantages of an integrated supply chain [5] Financial Performance Summary - Revenue for 2024 was 182.84 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 9.73% compared to 2023 [11] - The net profit for 2024 was 6.20 billion yuan, showing a remarkable growth of 905.79% from the previous year [11] - The company’s operating costs increased by 6.6% to 164.1 billion yuan, while the cost-to-income ratio improved from 92.4% in 2023 to 89.8% in 2024 [4][11] - The forecast for net profit for 2025-2027 is 6.63 billion, 7.36 billion, and 7.94 billion yuan respectively [5][11] Customer Revenue Breakdown - Revenue from external customers accounted for approximately 70% of total revenue, with external customer revenue growing by 9.6% to 127.78 billion yuan in 2024 [3] - The number of integrated supply chain customers increased from 74,700 to 80,700, although the average revenue per customer slightly decreased by 4.8% [3]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 40.63%, with a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [9][4]. - The company has made significant progress in its national expansion, with 3,193 distributors and nearly 4 million sales outlets, achieving 100% coverage in prefecture-level cities [9][4]. - The company’s gross margin and net margin for 2024 were 44.81% and 21.00%, respectively, showing improvements of 1.74 and 2.89 percentage points year-on-year [11][4]. Revenue and Profit Forecast - The company is expected to generate total revenue of 20.170 billion yuan, 24.881 billion yuan, and 29.530 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.34%, 23.36%, and 18.68% [4][18]. - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 4.406 billion yuan, 5.725 billion yuan, and 7.118 billion yuan, with growth rates of 32.43%, 29.93%, and 24.33% [4][18]. Segment Performance - In 2024, the revenue from different beverage categories was 13.304 billion yuan for functional drinks, 1.495 billion yuan for "Water La," and 1.023 billion yuan for other beverages, with respective growth rates of 28.49%, 280.37%, and 103.2% [10][4]. - The company’s revenue growth varied by region, with notable increases in North China (83.85%) and online sales (116.95%) [10][4]. Cost and Efficiency - The company has optimized its cost structure, with selling, general, and administrative expenses decreasing as a percentage of revenue, contributing to improved profitability [11][4]. - The company’s operating expenses as a percentage of revenue were 16.93% for sales, 2.69% for management, and -1.20% for financial expenses, indicating effective cost management [11][4].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" with the rating maintained [2][10]. Core Views - The report highlights that the company's performance continues to show strong growth, driven by the release of platform efficiencies and sustained high revenue growth [4][6]. - The company achieved a revenue of 15.839 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 40.63%, and a net profit of 3.327 billion yuan, up 63.09% year-on-year [6][8]. - The report anticipates continued revenue growth, projecting revenues of 20.339 billion yuan in 2025, 24.666 billion yuan in 2026, and 29.840 billion yuan in 2027, with respective growth rates of 28.41%, 21.28%, and 20.98% [4][8]. Financial Performance Summary - The company's main revenue sources include the flagship product, Dongpeng Special Drink, which generated 13.304 billion yuan in 2024, a growth of 28.49%, accounting for 84.08% of total revenue [6][8]. - The electrolyte drink segment saw significant growth, achieving 1.495 billion yuan in revenue, a remarkable increase of 280.37% [6]. - The gross profit margin for 2024 was 44.81%, an increase of 1.74% year-on-year, attributed to lower raw material costs and economies of scale [8]. Market Position and Expansion - Dongpeng Special Drink maintained its leading market share in China's energy drink market, with sales volume share increasing from 43.0% in 2023 to 47.9% in 2024 [6]. - The company has expanded its distribution channels significantly, with revenue from distributors, key accounts, and online channels growing by 37.28%, 57.59%, and 116.95% respectively [6][8]. - The number of active distributors increased to 3,193, a growth of 7.11%, with the average revenue per distributor rising to 4.26 million yuan, up 28.16% [6]. Earnings Forecast and Valuation - The report forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 6.40 yuan in 2024, 8.41 yuan in 2025, and 10.27 yuan in 2026, reflecting strong growth in profitability [4][8]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 35.79 in 2024 to 22.30 in 2026, indicating improving valuation metrics as earnings grow [4][8]. - The company plans to issue H shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which is expected to open new growth avenues [8].