Group 1 - The core narrative of the current market is that the market ROE is reaching an inflection point, driven by the consensus on the stabilization of the profit cycle and the initiation of supply-side reforms [1][3] - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to accelerate supply-side reforms, while major infrastructure projects like the Yajiang Hydropower Station are opening up demand expansion space, reinforcing expectations for economic supply-demand optimization and ROE stabilization [1][3] - The trading narrative based on the ROE inflection point can be divided into two phases: the first phase is the inflection point trading, and the second phase is the space trading, which depends on the efficiency of supply policy implementation and the coordination of demand policy [1][3] Group 2 - The current "anti-involution" market has also followed a two-step rhythm, with the first phase of inflection point trading largely completed since July 1, 2025, when the Central Financial Committee proposed "governing disorderly competition" [3][4] - The rapid completion of the inflection point trading in this round is attributed to market learning effects and the current ample liquidity, which provides a basis for quick pricing [3][4] - The transition from inflection point trading to space trading is expected to experience a period of consolidation, as the market digests short-term profit-taking and re-establishes consensus on the space logic [3][4] Group 3 - The narrative logic and funding logic of dividend assets are facing challenges, as the improvement in economic expectations is likely to drive a reversal in interest rate expectations, undermining the narrative of perpetual dividends [4][6] - The core narrative of perpetual dividends assumes that the ten-year government bond yield will continue to decline or remain low, but this assumption is at risk of reversal as economic optimism rises [6][9] - The trading logic of dividend assets is closely tied to the movements of the ten-year government bond yield, with dividend asset pricing anchored to this yield [6][9] Group 4 - The current market is expected to present characteristics of "cyclical sectors taking the stage, with growth sectors performing," as the supply-demand structure continues to improve with the deepening of the anti-involution policy and the implementation of major infrastructure projects [9][10] - Industry allocation should focus on cyclical sectors related to major infrastructure, which have clear performance elasticity in the context of economic recovery [9][10] - Long-term growth directions such as the AI industry chain, humanoid robots, military industry, and innovative pharmaceuticals remain key investment themes [9][10]

Group 1: Market Trends - The "anti-involution" policy has led to a surge in market sentiment, with pure soda futures rising for five consecutive trading days from July 21 to July 25 [1] - Major companies in the pure soda sector, such as Boyuan Chemical and Shuanghuan Technology, have seen significant stock price increases, reflecting the strong correlation between futures and stock prices [1][8] - The futures market has experienced substantial gains, with pure soda futures rising by 5.57% in a single day and a cumulative increase of 17.46% for the week [3] Group 2: Policy Impact - The "anti-involution" policies introduced in July aim to regulate low-price competition and promote product quality across various industries, including steel and petrochemicals [2] - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a draft amendment to the Price Law, focusing on government pricing and standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors [2] Group 3: Industry Dynamics - The pure soda industry has faced significant market fluctuations, with a reported average price of 1953 yuan/ton in 2024, down 29.6% year-on-year [4] - In the first half of 2025, the industry is expected to see an increase in production capacity by 2.4 million tons, leading to a total capacity of 40.78 million tons, while demand growth is anticipated to decline [4][6] - The industry is experiencing high inventory levels, with companies like Zhongyan Chemical reporting a 5.76% decline in revenue and an 88.04% drop in net profit in the first half of 2025 [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the recent price increases in pure soda futures may not be sustainable due to underlying supply-demand imbalances, with expectations of a wide price fluctuation in the near future [3][8] - The potential for further capacity expansion in the pure soda sector could exacerbate existing supply-demand issues, despite the positive impact of the recent price increases [6][8]

本文由 AI 算法生成，仅作参考，不涉投资建议，使用风险自担 【玻璃市场价格变动及走势分析】隆众统计显示，玻璃现货价格有变动，沙河大板市场价涨34元至1198 元/吨，湖北大板市场价涨40元至1110元/吨，广东大板市场价持平为1310元/吨，浙江大板市场价涨10元 至1260元/吨。 周末国内浮法玻璃市场多地价格上涨，中下游提货情绪提升，今日涨势放缓，仅局部零 星上调。近日华北受期货带动，期现商提货多，沙河及石家庄区域价格普涨20 - 40元/吨，小板部分厚 度涨幅明显，京津唐部分厂上调1 - 2元/重量箱。 华东今日价格多数维稳，周末个别厂小涨，实际成交 小上调，今日多观望。华中受期货提涨，部分中间商提货增加，浮法出货好，多数厂上调1 - 2元/重量 箱，少部分厂稳价。 华南主流价稳定，周末局部受台风影响，产销弱，提货放缓，浮法白玻供应预期 增加。西南周末部分价格上调1 - 2元/重量箱，今日暂稳。 今日玻璃延续涨势，宏观对标16年供给侧改 革，政策预期增强。供应端稳定，行业亏损难大规模冷修，湖北和沙河企业冷修意愿不强。 利润方 面，现货涨价使各生产方式利润小幅修复。库存上，中下游补库意愿增强，环比去库3 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the extreme volatility in the futures market, particularly referencing the "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016, and highlights the current trends in various commodities driven by policy expectations and market narratives [2][4][5]. Group 1: Historical Context and Market Behavior - The "Double 11 Night Crash" in 2016 saw extreme fluctuations where commodities like cotton dropped from a limit-up of +7% to limit-down of -7% within minutes, showcasing the potential for rapid market shifts [2][3]. - The article emphasizes that the current market behavior reflects a similar pattern where narratives and policy expectations drive prices, often ignoring fundamental supply and demand realities [4][5][6]. Group 2: Current Market Trends - Recent trends indicate a significant increase in commodity prices, particularly in sectors like new energy and construction materials, with notable price increases such as 57% for polysilicon and 33.4% for coking coal since July [31][32]. - The article notes that the futures prices are rising faster than spot prices, leading to a narrowing basis, which could indicate a potential correction depending on downstream replenishment intentions [32][34]. Group 3: Supply Chain Dynamics - The supply chain dynamics are highlighted, particularly in the coking coal market, where the disconnect between upstream price increases and downstream demand could lead to market pressures [35][37]. - The article warns that high prices could suppress speculative demand and stimulate foreign production, creating resistance to further price increases [38]. Group 4: Policy Implications and Future Outlook - The article discusses the implications of government policies on supply-side reforms, suggesting that past experiences with supply-side reforms will influence current market expectations and behaviors [40][41]. - It raises concerns about the potential for demand-side pain in the current economic environment, contrasting it with previous supply-side reforms that had stronger demand support [44].

近期，商品期货市场掀起一轮涨停潮，多只品种价格大幅波动，引发市场高度关注。7月25日，铁合 金、碳酸锂、焦煤等盘中纷纷涨停，焦煤期货部分合约连续第五日涨停，碳酸锂连续第二日涨停。据 悉，自6月3日至7月25日，焦煤期货价格上涨幅度达73%；自7月1日至7月25日，多晶硅期货价格涨幅达 56%，玻璃期货价格涨幅达35%，碳酸锂期货价格涨幅达30%。 "7月以来，焦煤、焦炭、多晶硅、工业硅、玻璃、纯碱等工业品期货主力合约涨幅显著，工业品上涨主 要受'反内卷'政策预期以及煤炭涨价带来的下游减产预期影响。不过，农产品期货价格涨幅相对较小， 与拉尼娜气候及农产品主产国的出口政策有关。"西安交大客座教授景川在接受《华夏时报》记者采访 时表示。 "从基本面上，当前铁水产量处于高位，需求有韧性，焦煤区域性供给略偏紧，拉动了现货市场情绪， 贸易商相继进场拿货，锁住了部分现货库存。此外，下游也出现补库迹象，在多方需求叠加的基础上， 煤矿库存进一步去化。受此影响，现货价格也大幅上涨，现货价格的上涨进一步助推期货价格上行，在 买涨不买跌的市场情绪下，期货和现货价格相互共振上行。"周涛称。 随着焦煤期货价格上涨，焦煤现货价格也出现明显 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core View of the Report Since July, the "anti - involution" market has been the main macro - logical line in the market. With the approaching of the Political Bureau meeting, investors need to be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market. Although there are expectations of a new round of supply - side reform, market differences are more prominent due to concerns about the global economic slowdown and the difficulty of strong demand - boosting policies during the economic transformation period. Additionally, the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may affect the capital market [1][9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Event - Since July, the "anti - involution" market has dominated the market. The A - share market has approached 3600 points, and commodities show a pattern of strong domestic and weak overseas, with hot spots constantly spreading. However, recent market fluctuations have been intense, and some varieties have seen excessive increases [1]. Market Analysis - The current commodity market started at the end of June and early July, based on low - valued absolute prices and driven by the "anti - involution" concept, potentially evolving into a new round of supply - side reform market. The start of the Yarlung Zangbo River downstream hydropower project and the upcoming release of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's ten - industry stable - growth plan have strengthened the market's policy expectations [2]. - There are three main investment opportunity lines from supply shocks in the second half of the year: "anti - involution" supply - side reform, supply disruptions caused by Middle East geopolitical conflicts, and abnormal weather. But due to weak global demand, the upward trend will be a pulsed, phased, and structural market [2]. Market Characteristics - New energy varieties lead the way, with polysilicon and lithium carbonate taking turns to drive the market [2]. - The black building materials sector acts as the rear guard. Core varieties such as coking coal and glass have seen excessive increases and rapid growth rates. For example, from June 2025 to the present, coking coal has increased by 68.58%, and glass by 35.27% [2][5]. - The hot - spot varieties rotate and spread rapidly, from new - energy non - ferrous metals to black building materials, and then to lithium carbonate, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon. The leading varieties, coking coal and glass, have significantly higher increases and growth rates than historical markets [6]. Risks and Suggestions - Multiple exchanges have issued risk alerts due to the sharp fluctuations in the commodity market and excessive increases in some varieties. As the important meeting approaches, policy games will face real - world tests. The repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations in early August may also impact the capital market. Investors should be vigilant about the adjustment risks of the "anti - involution" market [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent focus on "anti-involution" in various industries, emphasizing the need to eliminate homogeneous or low-end production capacities and restore a reasonable pricing system to optimize the competitive environment and enhance innovation capabilities in foundational industries [1][3]. Group 1: Background and Current Situation - The main goal of the current "anti-involution" initiative is to address severe homogenization in competition, which has led to a collapse of the overall pricing system due to excess supply and stagnant demand growth [3][4]. - Industries affected include renewable energy, particularly solar power, automotive sectors, and traditional industries like steel, cement, and electrolytic aluminum, all of which have experienced downward trends in the past two years [4][5]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is characterized by price wars driven by market share competition, resulting in deteriorating profitability for many companies, particularly in the solar and renewable energy sectors [4][10]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Demand for traditional industries like steel and cement is closely tied to macroeconomic factors, especially real estate, which has seen a decline affecting related sectors [5][6]. - The solar industry experienced rapid growth of 40%-50% from 2021, but demand may fluctuate in the coming months due to policy changes [6]. - The supply side of these industries shows a commonality in underlying technologies and business models, leading to homogenization, although some segments are witnessing continuous technological innovation and product differentiation [6][7]. Group 3: Historical Context and Comparisons - The current "anti-involution" measures are compared to previous supply-side reforms in 1998 and 2016, highlighting the evolution of reform strategies as the economic landscape changes [7]. - The 1998 reforms focused on state-owned enterprises, while the 2016 reforms involved both state and private enterprises, with the current adjustments primarily affecting emerging industries dominated by private players [7]. Group 4: Mechanisms of Involution and Future Outlook - The rapid expansion of homogeneous production capacities is driven by factors such as talent mobility, innovation, and capital flow, leading to significant fluctuations in profitability [9][10]. - Future competition may shift from price to product differentiation and performance, depending on the market's focus on cost versus innovation [11][12]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - Investment opportunities are anticipated in sectors like steel and solar energy, where certain companies are demonstrating resilience and competitive advantages despite the overall market challenges [16][17]. - The lithium battery supply chain is highlighted, with a distinction between the midstream battery segment, which is experiencing a bifurcation in profitability, and the upstream materials segment facing oversupply issues [16][17].

Report Title - "How Long Can the Current 'Anti-Involution' Market Last? - Analysis of the Rising Logic and Future Trends of Black Series Commodities" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Since the Central Financial and Economic Commission meeting arranged "anti-involution" at the beginning of July, black series commodities have risen significantly. The rise has both general and special characteristics, and the price increase is mainly due to speculating on expectations in advance, which is fundamentally different from the price increase in 2016 [65]. - Whether downstream demand can cooperate after August this year is an important variable to test the "anti-involution" market. Currently, steel and hot metal production remain high, but the terminal apparent demand in the spot market is average, and there is a risk of demand falling short of expectations during the peak season [65]. - From past patterns, in August - October, which is the consumption peak season, if demand is less than expected or the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is weaker than expected, futures prices may experience a deep adjustment [65]. - The current market for some commodities has deviated from fundamental and supply - demand factors and become a situation of capital gaming. There may be a short - term peak, but if "anti-involution" policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term [65]. - The screw - ore ratio is at a low level, and the strategy of going long on the screw - ore ratio has a high win - rate and odds, which is worth attention [65] Summary According to the Directory 1. General and Special Characteristics of the Rise of Black Series Commodities General Characteristics - The seasonality of rebar shows "not weak in the off - season and not strong in the peak season". May, August, and September have a high probability of decline, while December, January, and July have a high probability of rise. The seasonal pattern in 2025 is expected to be similar to that in 2014, with a limited rebound from June - July, greater downward pressure from August - October, and a certain rebound at the end of the year [8]. - The overall market maintains a weak oscillation, and there is no obvious long - term trend. It is more appropriate to adopt a medium - term band trading strategy. In July, go long on dips; from August - November, go short on rallies; after November, wait for opportunities to go long on dips in the medium term. In terms of arbitrage, going long on the screw - ore ratio or coil - ore ratio has an advantage in win - rate and odds [10]. Special Characteristics - In June, the market was overly bearish, and prices had fully reflected the consensus expectation, creating the possibility of a rise. The Central Financial and Economic Commission's Sixth Meeting on July 1st ignited the price increase, combined with subsequent central city work meetings and optimistic expectations for the Politburo meeting [14]. - Top - level attention to "anti - involution" has led various ministries to introduce relevant policies, covering industries such as photovoltaic, new energy vehicles, platform enterprises, and ten industries with over - capacity like steel, coal, chemical, building materials, and non - ferrous metals [15][17]. - Compared with the 2015 supply - side reform, the current "anti - involution" is still in the policy - introduction stage, with obvious speculation on expectations but no obvious supply contraction. Due to trade wars and the downturn in the domestic real estate market, it is difficult to see demand expansion in the long term. Whether it can reverse the bearish situation of black and chemical commodities depends on the improvement of terminal demand [19]. 2. Recent Data Interpretation of Steel Price and Basis - The rebar's spot and futures prices have rebounded, and the basis has converged from about 200 at the peak to about 86 [20][23]. - The hot - rolled coil basis has turned negative, with the basis of the 01 and 05 contracts falling from about 140 at the peak to negative values [24][29]. Production - The decline in production is mainly due to low prices and poor expectations in June. If "anti - involution" is not fully implemented and steel mills' profitability improves and the market enters the peak season, production may increase [32]. - According to the Steel Association, pig iron production has rebounded, and crude steel production has decreased slightly year - on - year. Building material production has decreased significantly, while plate production has increased slightly, and the total production has decreased slightly. Independent electric arc furnace production has decreased but is likely to rebound in the future [33][36][39]. Demand - The apparent demand for building materials is poor, while that for plates is good, and the overall demand is similar to the same period last year. Exports have increased overall, but the growth rate has slowed down, mainly driven by the rapid growth of billet exports. However, with the implementation of US tariffs, the export growth rate of billets and steel is likely to decline [42][45][47]. Profit - Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have rebounded rapidly, and iron ore prices have also risen, while the increase in finished product prices is relatively small, resulting in a decline in steel mills' gross profit. The larger increase in furnace charge varieties indicates that measures such as production restrictions and "anti - involution" have little impact on the steel production process for now [49]. Iron Ore and Iron Water - Iron ore inventory decline has slowed down, and the proportion of trade ore is relatively high. The 05 contract's screw - ore ratio is near historical extremes, with limited room for further decline. Due to the impact of "anti - involution" on coking coal and coke prices and the relatively stable supply of iron ore, the screw - ore ratio has a large potential for increase [55][59][62]. - Iron water production remains at a high level. The peak production this year was close to 2.5 million tons, setting a record for the same period. Although the proportion of profitable steel mills is not high, it has been rising steadily, which is an important reason for the high - level iron water production. Generally, iron water production experiences a seasonal decline from July - August, and it is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation recently [50][52]. 3. Market Outlook - The current "anti - involution" market is a game between weak reality and strong expectations. Whether it can continue depends on the improvement of downstream demand. There is a risk of a short - term peak, but if policies continue to advance, the market is expected to maintain a moderately strong oscillating trend in the medium term. The screw - ore ratio strategy is worth attention [65]

Core Viewpoint - The recent rebound in coking coal prices, following a significant drop earlier in the year, raises questions about the potential for a bull market, drawing parallels to historical trends in the past 20 years [1]. Group 1: Historical Bull Markets - The coking coal market has experienced four notable bull markets since the launch of coking coal futures in 2013 [1]. - The first bull market occurred in 2016, driven by supply-side reforms that reduced excess capacity, leading to a price increase from 515 points to 1676 points within the year [4][5]. - The second bull market spanned from August 2020 to March 2022, where prices surged from 1027.5 points to a peak of 3878.5 points, influenced by post-COVID recovery and supply chain disruptions [10][11]. - The third bull market, from November 2021 to May 2022, saw prices rise from 1783 points to 3297.5 points, driven by international supply chain issues and domestic production constraints [14][15]. Group 2: Recent Market Dynamics - In 2023, coking coal prices rebounded from a low of 1195 points to 2179 points, attributed to low inventory levels and supportive policies in the real estate sector [20][21]. - The market is currently experiencing strong sentiment, with expectations of continued price strength due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances [25]. - However, the medium-term outlook remains cautious, as fundamental supply-demand dynamics will ultimately dictate market conditions, necessitating close monitoring of production recovery and import levels [26].

Industry Overview - The term "anti-involution" has become a high-frequency keyword in the photovoltaic industry, reflecting strong market expectations for policy enforcement [1] - The photovoltaic industry chain has seen varying degrees of price increases, with polysilicon futures prices rising over 60% recently, and spot prices rebounding from a low of 30,000 yuan/ton [1] - As of July 25, the CSI Photovoltaic Index has increased by over 17% since its low in June, indicating a potential industry bottoming out [2] Policy and Market Dynamics - The urgency to address price wars in the photovoltaic industry has intensified, with government meetings emphasizing the need to combat involution and promote capacity exit [3] - Recent regulations require sales prices to not fall below cost, leading to significant increases in silicon material prices [4] - Multiple broker reports suggest that the photovoltaic sector is at a bottom in terms of prices and profitability, with expectations for a rebound driven by supply-side policy reforms [6] Company Spotlight: Duliang Energy - Duliang Energy has established a strong competitive edge in the clean energy sector, focusing on energy-saving and clean energy technologies [7] - The company has developed a complete photovoltaic industry chain, including polysilicon core equipment and solar cell components, and is actively involved in hydrogen energy technology [7] - Duliang Energy's recent contract for a 450 million yuan green hydrogen system has garnered significant attention, showcasing its competitive advantage in the hydrogen sector [8] Growth Potential - Duliang Energy's strategic foresight in hydrogen energy has positioned it well for future growth, with a focus on high-performance alkaline electrolyzers [8] - The company has secured several international project orders, indicating strong market recognition and trust in its hydrogen technology [8] - The photovoltaic sector is expected to see a valuation recovery, with Duliang Energy benefiting from both operational stability and favorable policies [10][11] Financial Outlook - Duliang Energy anticipates a 2.96% increase in silicon wafer shipments and a 210.48% increase in component shipments in 2024, despite facing negative gross margins [13] - The company's gross margin is projected to improve to 4.52% in Q1 2025, reflecting a 13.8% quarter-on-quarter increase as the industry stabilizes [13] - The demand for electrolytic water hydrogen production equipment is expected to exceed 2.37 GW in 2024, providing long-term growth opportunities for Duliang Energy [13]