Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various commodities including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and industrial and agricultural products, providing market trends, influencing factors, and investment strategies for each [5][8][10]. - Overall, the market is affected by factors such as tariffs, economic policies, and supply - demand relationships, with different commodities showing different trends and investment opportunities [6][8][22]. Summary by Commodity Bonds - Last trading day, most bond futures closed higher. The central bank conducted 159.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 91 billion yuan. The government plans to implement more active fiscal and monetary policies [5]. - Although external environment is favorable for bond futures, current bond yields are relatively low. China's economy shows a stable recovery trend, so it is recommended to be cautious [6]. - It is expected that the fluctuation range will increase, and caution should be maintained [7]. Stocks - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although tariffs disrupt the domestic economic recovery rhythm and global recession risk increases, domestic asset valuations are low and policies have hedging space [8]. - It is still optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and suggests waiting for long - entry opportunities [9]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures prices declined. The US consumer confidence index and inflation expectations have certain impacts [10]. - The complex global trade and financial environment, potential monetary policy easing, and tariff environment are expected to drive up the price of gold. It is still optimistic about the long - term value of gold, and it is recommended to take profit on previous long positions and wait for new long - entry opportunities [10][11]. Industrial Metals - **Steel Products (including rebar, hot - rolled coil)**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. The real - estate industry's downturn suppresses demand, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. Valuations are low, and there are signs of technical support. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [12]. - **Iron Ore**: Last trading day, prices slightly adjusted. The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support prices. Valuations are relatively high. It is recommended to look for long - entry opportunities at low levels [14]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Last trading day, prices slightly declined. Coking coal supply is loose, while coke demand has improved to some extent. There are signs of a technical bottom. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [16]. - **Ferroalloys**: Last trading day, prices declined. Manganese ore supply may be disrupted, and the supply - demand situation of ferroalloys is gradually improving. It is recommended to consider call options on manganese silicon and short - covering opportunities on silicon iron [18][19]. - **Copper**: Last trading day, prices rose. The cooling of tariff disputes and the possibility of a Fed rate cut in June support prices. It is expected that prices will be strong, and long - entry operations are recommended [48][49]. - **Tin**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, price fluctuations have intensified. The supply side has both positive and negative factors, and demand is good. It is expected that prices will fluctuate, and risk control is needed [50][51]. - **Nickel**: Last trading day, prices declined. Affected by tariffs, the market sentiment is pessimistic. The supply side has cost support, but demand may weaken in the off - season. It is recommended to control risks and wait and see [52]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon**: Last trading day, prices declined. The supply - demand imbalance persists, and costs are expected to decrease. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds [53][55]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated upward. The increase in net long positions of speculators and the increase in the number of oil and gas rigs are noteworthy. The Sino - US negotiation and OPEC's production policy are uncertain. It is recommended to wait and see [20][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: Last trading day, prices followed crude oil and fluctuated higher. The high - sulfur fuel oil market may enter the peak demand season, and the low - sulfur fuel oil market is stable. Due to the sanctions on Russia, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to be tight. It is recommended to wait and see [24][25]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply pressure persists, demand improvement is limited, and costs are stable. It is expected that prices will fluctuate [26][28]. - **Natural Rubber**: Last trading day, prices showed mixed performance. The supply is expected to increase, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile [29][30]. - **PVC**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply pressure eases, demand recovers weakly, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [31][33]. - **Urea**: Last trading day, prices declined. Agricultural demand will weaken seasonally, and new production capacity will be released. It is expected that prices will be weakly volatile in the short term [34][35]. - **PX**: Last trading day, prices rose. PX device maintenance reduces supply, and downstream demand improves. Affected by crude oil prices, it is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [36][37]. - **PTA**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply increases, demand improvement is less than expected, and costs provide support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [38]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, inventory removal is difficult, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that prices will fluctuate at the bottom [39][40]. - **Short - Fiber**: Last trading day, prices rose. Supply is at a relatively high level, demand is weak, and costs provide limited support. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [41]. - **Bottle Chips**: Last trading day, prices rose. Raw material prices recover, supply increases slightly, and demand improves. It is expected that prices will fluctuate with the cost side [42]. - **Soda Ash**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply remains high, demand is weak, and inventory removal is slow. It is expected that the market will remain weak in the short term [43]. - **Glass**: Last trading day, prices declined. Production lines are at a low level, inventory changes little, and demand is affected by tariffs. It is expected that the market sentiment will be weak [44]. - **Caustic Soda**: Last trading day, prices declined. Some large - scale devices are under maintenance, demand from the alumina industry is limited, and the market turns weak again [45]. - **Pulp**: Last trading day, prices declined slightly. Inventory accumulates, downstream start - up rates vary, and the market is weak and volatile [46]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: Last trading day, soybean meal prices declined, and soybean oil prices rose. Argentine weather is favorable for soybean harvesting, and domestic soybean supply is expected to be loose. It is recommended to wait and see for soybean meal and consider call options on soybean oil at the bottom [56][57]. - **Palm Oil**: Malaysian palm oil prices rose. Domestic imports increase, and inventory accumulates. It is recommended to wait and see [58][60]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed prices rose. China has imposed tariffs on Canadian rapeseed products. Inventory shows different trends. It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean and rapeseed products [61][62]. - **Cotton**: Last trading day, prices fluctuated. The spring sowing of Xinjiang cotton is almost completed, and weather is a key factor. Textile exports are affected by tariffs. It is recommended to short - sell at high levels on rebounds in the long - term [63][68]. - **Sugar**: Last trading day, domestic sugar prices rose slightly, and international sugar prices rose significantly. Indian sugar production is lower than expected, and domestic supply pressure is not large. It is recommended to wait and see [70][72]. - **Apple**: Last trading day, prices rose significantly. Inventory is low, consumption is good, and spot prices are strong. It is recommended to go long at low levels after corrections [74][75]. - **Pig**: Last trading day, prices declined. Supply increases, consumption is in the off - season, and prices are expected to decline in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on previous short positions [76][78]. - **Egg**: Last trading day, prices were stable. Egg supply is expected to increase, and consumption is in the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to reverse spread opportunities [79][80]. - **Corn and Corn Starch**: Last trading day, prices rose. Corn supply is still under pressure in the short term, but the bottom is supported. Corn starch follows the corn market. It is recommended to wait and see [81][83]. - **Log**: Last trading day, prices rose. Log prices decline, inventory is relatively neutral, and the real - estate market is in the destocking cycle. The spot market provides weak support for the futures market [84][85].

Core Viewpoint - Dongguan Bank reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for the first time in five years, indicating challenges in its financial performance amid efforts to support economic recovery [1][3]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Dongguan Bank achieved operating income of 10.197 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.69% [1][3]. - The net profit for the year was 3.733 billion yuan, down 8.20% compared to the previous year [1][3]. - The bank's total assets reached 672.73 billion yuan, an increase of 6.97% year-on-year [1][5]. - The loan balance stood at 365.55 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.54% increase from the previous year [1][5]. Asset Quality - As of the end of 2024, the non-performing loan ratio was 1.01%, a slight increase of 0.08 percentage points from the previous year [1]. - The provision coverage ratio was 212.01%, down 40.85 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Revenue Breakdown - Interest income decreased to 20.059 billion yuan, a decline of 1.66% year-on-year, while interest expenses rose to 12.941 billion yuan, an increase of 7.26% [3]. - Net interest income fell to 7.119 billion yuan, down 14.57% year-on-year [3]. - Non-interest income from fees and commissions was 894 million yuan, a decrease of 10.01% [4]. Business Structure Adjustment - The bank's loan structure is shifting, with corporate loans at 228.795 billion yuan and personal loans at 109.857 billion yuan, representing 62.59% and 30.05% of total loans, respectively [6]. - The bank aims to enhance support for key sectors such as small and micro enterprises, technology innovation, and consumer promotion [6]. Shareholder Changes - On January 20, 2025, Dongguan Bank's fourth-largest shareholder transferred approximately 105 million shares, increasing the state-owned shareholding from 37.52% to 42% [2]. Future Outlook - Dongguan Bank plans to maintain a reasonable return on equity and steady asset growth, focusing on cost reduction and differentiated competition strategies [7].

股市潜在风险提示： 截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极 ...

截至2025年4月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为45.53，较上月47.51略有下降，市场情绪出现一定波动，整体风险 评分仍处于中等偏低风险区间。 沪深300估值较上月有所下降（本月38.93，上月45.01），显示出市场整体估值水平有所回落。从行业分布 来看，部分前期估值较高的行业如电子、计算机等，估值有所调整，而部分防御性板块或低估值板块的估 值相对稳定。 行业间估值分化有所减小。 目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、国防军工、计算机 的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、纺织服装、公共事业、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10% 分位数。 市场整体估值的调整，有超预期的关税冲击的影响，也反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利 预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所下降（本月48.00，上月56.00）。分析师认为，政策层面持续发力，财政政策和 货币政策协同配合，为经济复苏提供了有力支持。财政方面，当月地方基建支出有所改善，土地市场的恢 复虽不均衡，但政府债发行提速，继续支撑政府性基金支出。预计二季度财政仍将保持积极。但全球经济 复苏的 ...

印度央行：国内经济活动正处于复苏阶段，预计将保持韧性。 ...

为什么历经风雨也不一定做好？因为老手总是回头看过去，总是拿着过去的经验与现在做对比，却忘了金融市场唯一不变的就是变。一般性的工作，可以 靠经验去线性外推，但投资是人与人之间心理的博弈，它的思维方式不是线性的，而是逆人性的。 ——笔记哥《应对》 【笔记20250417— 股市8连阳，债市金钟罩（-股市小幅上涨-服务业发布会预告-收储传闻+资金面均衡宽松=中上)】 今日股市小幅上涨，下周一将召开服务业相关发布会，叠加收储传闻，利率震荡上行。 隔夜鲍威尔表态偏鹰派，海外风险资产大跌。早盘债市情绪平稳，10Y国债利率小幅低开在1.635%后震荡。国新办将于下周一举行发布会介绍服务业扩大 开放有关情况，叠加传中国启动规模超万亿的地产收储专项基金，股市小幅上涨，10Y国债利率震荡上至1.65%。 -------------------------- 不知真假的段子称，美联储鲍师傅被川大爷戏称为"pussy(猫咪)"，鲍师傅直接回怼："Go fuck yourself"。 不过昨晚鲍师傅真实叹息：这通胀心魔难除，经济经脉又需调理，如何是好？ 咱YM笑答：还是缺乏修炼，且看本宫同时运转经济复苏大法、汇率凌波微步、净息差太极拳 ...

4月16日，国家统计局发布的数据显示，经初步核算，一季度国内生产总值(GDP)318758亿元，按不变 价格计算，同比增长5.4%。国家统计局副局长盛来运在国新办新闻发布会上表示，这一增速在全球主 要经济体中名列前茅，经济开局良好。相关指标显示，一季度经济运行不仅实现了量的增长，也实现了 质的提升。受访专家认为，内需和创新协同驱动，经济呈现较强复苏态势。 从主要经济指标看，一季度生产需求指标加快回升。全部工业增加值同比增长6.3%，比去年全年回升 0.6个百分点；服务业增加值增长5.3%，回升0.3个百分点；固定资产投资增长4.2%，比去年全年回升1 个百分点；社会消费品零售总额增长4.6%，回升1.1个百分点。中信证券首席经济学家明明对证券时报 记者表示，一季度GDP增速超预期，且在高基数背景下，比上年四季度增长1.2%，这意味着，在一系 列政策前置发力下，内需和创新协同驱动，经济呈现较强复苏态势。 质的方面，一季度，装备制造业增加值同比增长10.9%，比上年全年加快3.2个百分点；高技术制造业增 加值增长9.7%，加快0.8个百分点。新能源汽车、3D打印设备、工业机器人产品产量同比分别增长 45.4%、4 ...

Core Views - The recent collective rise of the A-share market indices is attributed to the temporary suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration, which has improved global market sentiment [2][8] - The market has recovered above 3200 points, indicating a potential end to the recent downward trend driven by emotional short-term selling [2][9] - Despite the positive sentiment, concerns remain regarding the substantial impact of tariffs and the overall market fundamentals, as corporate earnings have not yet fully improved [2][9] Market Overview - On Thursday, the A-share market indices continued to rebound, supported by several favorable factors including state intervention, a wave of stock buybacks by listed companies, and expectations of interest rate cuts [4][5] - The trading volume reached 16,095 billion, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,223.64 points, up 1.16%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising 2.25% [5] - The precious metals sector saw significant activity, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid global tariff tensions [6] Sector Performance - The precious metals and consumer sectors, including dairy, food and beverage, and retail, showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards domestic consumption as a key driver for economic recovery in 2025 [7][8] - The recent announcement by the State Taxation Administration to promote "immediate refund" services for overseas travelers has boosted the performance of duty-free and tax refund concept stocks [6][7] Future Market Outlook - Continued attention is required on trade negotiations, as successful outcomes could lead to a rebound in industries with strong export recovery expectations [9] - The report anticipates increased fiscal and monetary policy support in response to the economic goals set during the Two Sessions, which is expected to bolster market sentiment in the medium term [3][9]

Core Viewpoint - Despite significant fluctuations in the A-share market this week, the stock prices of liquor companies remained stable, with beer stocks showing stronger rebound momentum compared to liquor stocks [1] Industry Summary - During the Spring Sugar Conference, feedback from liquor companies and distributors indicated an optimistic expectation for the liquor industry to emerge from its bottom this year, with nearly two-thirds of liquor companies experiencing stock price rebounds [1][2] - The three major yellow wine companies, Kuaijishan, Jinfeng Wine Industry, and Guyue Longshan, saw significant stock price increases of 15.42%, 5.31%, and 4.01% respectively, ranking among the top five in the brewing industry for weekly gains [1][2] - The beer sector also performed well, with Yanjing Beer, Qingdao Beer, and Huichuan Beer all seeing weekly gains exceeding 3%, indicating a strong start in April [1][2] - However, the liquor sector's performance was relatively weak, with only Shanxi Fenjiu showing an increase among first-tier liquor brands, while Wuliangye and Kweichow Moutai experienced stock price declines [1] Company Summary - Water井坊's stock performance was weak this week, despite a projected net profit growth of approximately 6% for 2024, indicating potential development concerns due to its mid-range strategy [3][4] - The low market scale of the mid-range liquor segment, estimated at 147.5 billion yuan in 2023, has negatively impacted Water井坊's gross margin performance, which decreased to 82.94% in the first three quarters of 2024 compared to previous years [4] - Water井坊 has announced a strategic shift by launching a high-end product line "Diyifang" during the Spring Sugar Conference, aiming to enhance brand positioning and market operations [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - A - share major indices closed down collectively this week, with all but the Shanghai Composite Index falling more than 1%. The four stock - index futures also closed down collectively, with IF having the largest decline. The market was affected by overseas tariff policy disturbances, and risk appetite declined overall. Market trading activity further shrank compared to last week, and the trading volume once fell below the trillion - yuan level on April 2nd. - Overseas, the US announced a 10% benchmark tariff on all trading partners effective April 5th, and higher reciprocal tariffs on certain trading partners effective April 9th. Domestically, in March, the three major domestic PMI indices continued to rise, indicating that domestic economic activities maintained expansion and the economic recovery trend remained unchanged. - Overall, with the support of stable - growth policies, the economic fundamentals showed a recovery trend. However, due to overseas disturbances and the annual report disclosure period of listed companies, market risk appetite declined, and A - shares consolidated with shrinking volume. In the case of insufficient trading volume, stock indices may still be revised downward, and small - and medium - cap stocks are expected to be more affected due to their weaker risk - resistance ability. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies with a light position [6][88]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1行情回顾 - Futures: IF2506 fell 1.21% for the week, IH2506 fell 0.73%, IC2506 fell 0.95%, and IM2506 fell 0.77%. - Spot: The CSI 300 fell 1.37%, the SSE 50 fell 0.65%, the CSI 500 fell 1.19%, and the CSI 1000 fell 1.04% [10]. 3.2消息面概览 - The March PMI data showed that the manufacturing PMI was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month; the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.8%, up 0.4 percentage points; and the composite PMI output index was 51.4%, up 0.3 percentage points, which was a neutral impact. - Four major banks announced that the Ministry of Finance would subscribe for new shares in cash, with a total investment of 500 billion yuan, indicating that the issuance of special treasury bonds to replenish the capital of large - scale banks was imminent, which was a neutral - to - positive impact. - The US President signed executive orders on "reciprocal tariffs", setting a 10% "minimum benchmark tariff" on trading partners and imposing higher tariffs on some, and also announced a 25% tariff on imported cars effective April 3rd, which was a negative impact [13]. 3.3周度市场数据 - **Domestic Main Indices**: The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.28%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 2.28%, the STAR 50 fell 1.11%, the SME 100 fell 2.93%, and the ChiNext Index fell 2.95% [16]. - **External Main Indices (as of Thursday)**: The S&P 500 rose 1.61%, the UK FTSE 100 fell 0.58%, the Hang Seng Index fell 2.46%, and the Nikkei 225 fell 6.42% [17]. - **Industry Sector Performance**: Most industry sectors fell. The automobile, power equipment, and household appliance sectors fell significantly, while the public utilities sector rose against the trend. All industry sectors had net outflows of main funds, with a large net outflow from the electronics sector. SHIBOR interest rates declined, indicating relatively loose liquidity. This week, major shareholders had a net reduction of 1.958 billion yuan in the secondary market, the market value of restricted - share unlockings was 22.683 billion yuan, and northbound funds had a total trading volume of 467.228 billion yuan. The basis of the IF main contract strengthened slightly, the basis of the IH main contract weakened oscillatingly, the basis of the IC main contract strengthened, and the basis of the IM main contract strengthened oscillatingly [21][25][29][30]. 3.4行情展望与策略 - The economic fundamentals are in a recovery trend under the support of stable - growth policies. However, due to overseas disturbances and the annual report disclosure period, market risk appetite has declined, and A - shares are consolidating with shrinking volume. In the case of insufficient trading volume, stock indices may still be revised downward, and small - and medium - cap stocks are expected to be more affected. The strategy suggests short - selling on rallies with a light position [88].