1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the main contract price of Shanghai lead futures rebounded steadily. The market's dovish bets on the interest - rate cut path increased, the US dollar was weak, and non - ferrous metals such as copper and tin strengthened, driving up the lead price. The supply - demand tension of lead ore is difficult to reverse in the short term, and the cost side supports the lead price. Although the production of some refineries recovered in November, there were more refinery overhauls in December, and the production of primary and recycled lead is expected to decline month - on - month. The terminal consumption is divided, with the consumption of electric bicycle batteries weakening, but the consumption of automobile starting batteries improving, and large - and medium - sized battery enterprises starting year - end stockpiling. Overall, the macro - environment is warm, the fundamentals are marginally improved, and social inventories have dropped to a new low for the year, supporting the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will remain oscillating strongly in the short term, but the rebound space is restricted by the import expectation of lead ingots, and attention should be paid to the resistance around 17,500 yuan/ton [3][6][7]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | 11/28 | 12/5 | Change | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Lead | 17,090 | 17,290 | 200 | yuan/ton | | LME Lead | 1,981 | 2,009 | 28 | US dollars/ton | | Shanghai - London Ratio | 8.63 | 8.61 | - 0.02 | | | SHFE Inventory | 37,799 | 34,735 | - 3,064 | tons | | LME Inventory | 263,175 | 243,550 | - 19,625 | tons | | Social Inventory | 3.07 | 2.36 | - 0.71 | 10,000 tons | | Spot Premium | - 65 | - 65 | 0 | yuan/ton | [4] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, the price of the main Shanghai lead PB2601 contract rebounded steadily, breaking through the moving - average pressure and finally closing at 17,290 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.17%. The LME lead price also rebounded slightly, closing at 2,009 US dollars/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.41%. In the spot market, the supply of lead in the Jiangsu, Zhejiang, and Shanghai markets was limited, and most of the lead ingots were from refineries. The supply of lead in the East China region was tight, and the mainstream origin quoted a premium of 0 - 50 yuan/ton over the SMM1 lead average price. The recycled lead refineries were more willing to sell, and the downstream enterprises mainly purchased through long - term contracts [5]. - As of December 5, the LME weekly inventory was 243,550 tons, a weekly decrease of 19,625 tons. The SHFE inventory was 34,735 tons, a decrease of 3,064 tons from the previous week. As of December 4, the SMM five - region social inventory was 23,600 tons, a decrease of 7,100 tons from Monday and 11,400 tons from Thursday of the previous week. As the delivery of the current - month contract approaches, some goods holders may transfer their inventory for delivery, and the social inventory is expected to stabilize [6]. 3.3 Industry News - As of the week of December 5, the domestic lead concentrate processing fee was 300 yuan/metal ton, and the imported ore processing fee was - 135 US dollars/dry ton, with the average values remaining flat month - on - month [8]. - In November, the electrolytic lead production was 327,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 323,400 tons in December. The recycled refined lead production in November was 296,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.5% and a year - on - year increase of 10.2%. It is expected to slightly decrease to 290,300 tons in December [8]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts, including SHFE and LME lead prices, Shanghai - London ratio, SHFE and LME inventories, 1 lead premium and discount, LME lead premium and discount, the price difference between primary and recycled lead, recycled lead enterprise profits, lead ore processing fees, electrolytic lead and recycled refined lead production, lead ingot social inventory, and refined lead import profit and loss [9][11][13][15].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Investment Outlook**: The overall market is expected to see an influx of capital due to adjustments in risk factors for major index constituents and new regulations for public funds, potentially leading to an increase of over 100 billion yuan in investment funds [1][2][3] - **Foreign Investment**: Initial foreign interest in Chinese assets was low at the beginning of the year, but is expected to gradually return in the second half, supported by a favorable exchange rate for the yuan [1][2][3] Key Points on Specific Industries Power Industry - **Electricity Pricing**: The national electricity price is anticipated to face downward pressure in 2026 due to supply easing and rapid construction of peak-shaving facilities. However, the role of thermal power is shifting towards auxiliary services, which will enhance profitability stability [4] - **High Dividend Stocks**: Companies like Huaneng and Huadian are highlighted as attractive due to their high dividend yields amidst limited downward space for profitability [4] Natural Gas Sector - **LNG Prices**: The price of imported LNG is expected to decline due to falling global prices and a decrease in oil prices, benefiting end-users [5] - **Investment Opportunities**: Companies such as Kunlun Energy and China Resources Gas are recommended for their high dividend yields and potential for valuation recovery [5] Copper Market - **Price Trends**: Copper prices have recently reached new highs, driven by structural inventory tightness and expectations of supply cuts. The price is currently around 91,600 yuan/ton domestically and 11,600 USD/ton internationally [6][8] - **Future Outlook**: The copper market is expected to remain strong due to ongoing supply-demand imbalances and potential tariff impacts on copper imports in the U.S. [7][8] - **Recommended Stocks**: Companies like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum are recommended based on their favorable market positions [6][8] Gold Sector - **Market Performance**: The gold sector is viewed positively, with expectations of price increases supported by anticipated interest rate cuts and ongoing central bank purchases [9] - **Valuation**: Current valuations for gold stocks are considered low, with potential for significant upside if prices rise to 5,000 USD/oz [9] Chemical Industry - **Basic Chemicals**: The basic chemical sector is entering a favorable investment window due to supply-demand stabilization and policy support for production efficiency [11][12] - **Key Players**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical and Xinjiang Tianye are highlighted for their strong competitive positions and governance [12] Petrochemical Sector - **Oil Price Stability**: Oil prices are expected to remain stable around 63 USD, with a projected range of 55 to 70 USD in 2026 due to balanced supply and demand dynamics [10] - **Investment Recommendations**: Downstream polyester companies are favored for their stronger performance outlook, with specific recommendations for Tongkun and New Fengming [10] Construction Materials - **Market Trends**: The construction materials sector is expected to see steady demand growth, particularly in fiberglass and consumer building materials, with companies like China Jushi and Sanke Tree recommended for their growth potential [20][21] Coal Industry - **Future Trends**: The coal market is expected to tighten due to increased global demand and supply constraints, particularly in East Asia [22][23] - **Investment Opportunities**: High dividend stocks such as China Shenhua and Shanxi Coal are recommended, along with companies involved in new energy initiatives [24] Additional Insights - **Sector-Specific Opportunities**: Various sectors such as fluorochemicals, titanium dioxide, and organic silicon are identified as having potential investment opportunities due to market dynamics and supply constraints [15][16][17] - **Overall Market Sentiment**: The sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, with expectations of gradual recovery and capital inflow across multiple sectors, driven by policy support and macroeconomic factors [1][2][3]

基本面总结： 1．澳大利亚经济内热外冷加剧，市场加息预期显著升温。 上周发布的澳大利亚关键经济数据显示出其经济格局的显著分化，导致市场对澳大利亚储备银行未来的利率路径预期发生重大转变，从讨论降息转为博弈 加息。推动这一变化的核心因素是内需的意外爆发与持续的通胀压力：10月份家庭支出环比跃增1.3%，创近两年最大增幅，与此同时通胀率连续第四个 月加速至3.8%，核心通胀率持续高于央行目标区间。这种"消费过热"与"通胀粘性"的组合引发市场对经济过热的担忧，三年期国债收益率随之飙升至年初 以来高点，利率期货市场显示投资者预计央行明年5月加息的可能性已升至约50%。 私营经济呈现结构性但并不均衡的改善。服务业持续引领复苏，11月采购经理人指数（PMI）升至52.8，连续22个月处于扩张区间；而制造业活动虽收缩 幅度收窄，指数仍处于负值区间，表明其复苏基础尚不牢固。两大行业共同面临劳动力短缺和成本上升的压力。与经济内热形成对照的是部分领域的明显 降温。房地产市场区域分化加剧，全国房价上涨动力主要来自珀斯等较小首府城市，悉尼和墨尔本两大市场显著放缓，且更具前瞻性的10月营建许可数据 环比骤降6.41%，预示未来住宅供应可 ...

来源：环球市场播报 欲览更多环球财经资讯，请移步7×24小时实时财经新闻 上周市场回顾 韩国预计今年全年出口额将首次超过7000亿美元 公司 马斯克否认"SpaceX 拟通过股份出售寻求8000亿美元估值"的传闻 苹果接连遭遇高管离职 自研芯片战略关键人物可能成为下一位离任者 奈飞是如何拿下华纳兄弟探索的？ 波音公司称特朗普的股权计划不适用于美国大型国防企业 消息人士：三星电子拟于第四季度重夺全球DRAM市场榜首 12月6日收盘：美股收高道指涨100点 三大指数本周均录得涨幅 12月6日美股成交额前20：英伟达称大模型厂商多是其间接客户 12月6日热门中概股普涨 百度涨5.85%，腾讯音乐跌0.72% 原油期货周四上涨，降息预期与乌克兰和谈停滞支撑油价 白银价格创新高 欧洲股市连续第二周上涨 市场看好美联储12月降息 宏观 特朗普下令调查食品行业潜在价格操纵行为 贝森特称美国今年GDP增速将达3%，认为假日季表现"非常强劲" 美国财政部长贝森特称已出售其大豆农场 马克龙呼吁重新审视欧洲央行货币政策思路 佩斯科夫：美国家安全战略不再将俄称为"直接威胁"是积极举措 乌总统与美特使通话 讨论乌克兰和平进程 法国、德 ...

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 相关研究 - 证券分析师 郭中伟 A0230524120004 guozw@swsresearch.com 马焰明 A0230523090003 maym@swsresearch.com 陈松涛 A0230523090002 chenst@swsresearch.com 马昕晔 A0230511090002 maxy@swsresearch.com 研究支持 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 联系人 郭中耀 A0230124070003 guozy@swsresearch.com 2025 年 12 月 07 日 供应格局趋紧，工业金属价格大幅 上行 看好 ——金属&新材料行业周报 20251201-20251205 本期投资提示： 行 业 点 评 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 证 有色金属 、 ⚫ 一周行情回顾：据 ifind，环比上周 1）上证指数上涨 0.37% ...

'()*+,|-./0+ 2025-12-07 !"#$%&'()!"*+,'- !"#$ !"#$ 徐闻宇 * xuwenyu@htfc.com 从业资格号：F0299877 投资咨询号：Z0011454 蔡劭立 ( 0755-23887993 * caishaoli@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3056198 投资咨询号：Z0015616 高聪 ( 021-60828524 * gaocong@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3063338 投资咨询号：Z0016648 %&'()*&+, -./01201121289 3 !"#$ 近期美债长端利率延续抬升，10年期收益率升至4.14%，曲线陡化特征明显。当前对降 息预期修正仍是影响美债价格的主要因素。短端受宽松预期支撑具下行趋势，但长端 在供给压力、经济韧性与资金面扰动下不确定性突出。需继续关注数据驱动的节奏波 动与长端风险溢价变化。 %&'( ■ !"#$ | 核心观点 1 | | | --- | --- | | 重点解读 3 | | | !"#$ | 4 | | !"%& | 5 | | '()%& | 5 | | *+, | 6 | | !- ...

宏观点评报告 陷入"决策僵局"中的美联储 证券研究报告 2025 年 12 月 07 日 核心结论 从降息预期的节奏来看，市场除了定价了 2025 年 12 月降息之外，2026 年 仍需降息 2 次左右。数据显示，2025 年 12 月降息 25 个 bp 的概率高达 87%， 2026 年 4 月和 7 月各降息 25 个 bp 的概率分别为 41%和 32.4%。 从近期来看，非农和通胀数据的缺失，使得基本面处于难以准确估量。首先， 就业的不同数据打架，劳动力市场真实情况被掩盖。根据 ADP 公布的数据， 11 月私营部门就业人数减少 3.2 万，低于经济学家预估中值的增加 1 万，证 明裁员力度加大。但是截至 11 月 28 日当周，初请失业金人数减少 2.7 万， 至 19.1 万人。另外，11 月 21 日当周持续领取失业金人数也有所降低至 193.9 万人。首申数据的回落表明，在经历政府停摆与政策不确定性后，企业更倾 向于通过"冻结招聘"而非直接裁员来控制成本。与此同时，续请人数持续 盘踞高位，印证了市场吸纳能力的疲软，失业者再就业周期被拉长。其次， 从价格来看，出口商、进口商与消费者围绕关税成 ...

Group 1 - The core of the recent stock market rally is driven by "data meeting expectations, policy anticipation, and industry consolidation" [4] - Netflix's acquisition of Warner Bros. assets for $72 billion aims to strengthen its position in the competitive streaming industry, but regulatory scrutiny may pose risks [3][4] - The market's expectation for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has surged to 87%, influenced by mixed economic data, including stagnant consumer spending and improved inflation expectations [3][4] Group 2 - The technology sector is expected to continue its consolidation trend, with leading companies pursuing mergers to enhance competitiveness, while investors should be cautious of high policy risks and unstable cash flows [4] - Following a potential interest rate cut, sectors sensitive to rates, such as finance and real estate, may experience a recovery, but investors should wait for clearer policy signals before making moves [4] - Despite signs of easing inflation, persistent inflationary pressures remain, making consumer staples and defensive sectors viable options for long-term investment [4] Group 3 - For long-term investment strategies, it is advised to avoid heavy bets on a single sector, particularly technology, and to diversify with defensive sectors to mitigate risks [4] - Investors should monitor regulatory developments and integration progress for acquisition targets like Netflix before making investment decisions [4] - Key upcoming events, such as the Federal Reserve meeting on December 10 and subsequent employment reports, will significantly influence market direction, providing opportunities for strategic positioning [4]

本周全球市场的主要变量并不来自数据本身，而是"没有数据"。关键经济指标的连续缺席，使交易情绪 在美联储 12 月会议前快速升温：就业端疲软信号在周初不断累积，市场围绕"数据不足是否会干扰决策 时间"的讨论迅速扩散，政策端的想象空间被不断放大。盘面层面，黄金多次在支撑位附近稳住，美元 则在短线消息推动下呈现区间反复，风险资产整体偏谨慎，但并未显现明显降温。 关键指标的空窗期，为市场留下了相当大的解读余地。周初就业数据持续偏弱，令部分交易员重新调整 政策逻辑；随后"会议可能因信息不足而延后"的声音在盘面上不断被放大，进一步提升了市场对美联储 路径的敏感度。尽管官员整体保持谨慎基调，但并未正面压制降息押注。同时，哈塞特被视为热门接任 者的消息，使市场更倾向于将未来环境理解为"偏宽松"，本周形成了典型的"数据缺位 → 预期填补 → 情绪被放大"的链条。 美元本周节奏呈现明显的消息驱动特征。短线避险需求与官员讲话使得美元数次企稳，但整体涨幅偏 弱；降息预期与会议推迟讨论又不断削弱美元的延续性，使其难以脱离震荡区间。由于缺乏硬数据验 证，交易员更多依赖情绪与流动性变化来寻找方向。周中一度受政策讨论升温影响而获得支撑，但同 ...

Group 1 - The copper market is experiencing a strong performance, with the current spot price for 1 copper reaching 91,260 CNY, and the LME copper price slightly increasing to 11,496 USD/ton, up by 9 USD from the previous day [1] - The futures market for copper is also showing an upward trend, with the 2601 contract price rising to 91,100 CNY/ton, an increase of 2,130 CNY, and the 2602 contract at 91,150 CNY/ton, up by 2,170 CNY [1] - Various regions in China are reporting increases in scrap copper prices, with notable rises in Hunan, Guangdong, Sichuan, Hebei, and Yunnan markets, indicating a broad upward trend across the country [1] Group 2 - The price of gold is experiencing a decline, dropping below the critical level of 4,180 USD/ounce, contrasting with the rising prices of industrial metals like copper due to supply concerns [2] - The copper prices have reached historical highs, with Shanghai copper hitting 91,450 CNY/ton and London copper at 11,540 USD/ton, driven by supply worries [2]