Report Information - Report Title: "破七之后：强势已现，空间几何" - Report Date: December 26, 2025 - Research Institute: Huatai Futures Research Institute - Analysts: Cai Shaoli, Zhu Simou [1] Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The logic of RMB's oscillatory strength remains unchanged. The RMB has broken through the 7.00 integer mark, but the appreciation this round is more driven by external factors and trade rhythm. The internal fundamentals have not formed a trend resonance. It is expected to operate in the range of 6.95–7.05 with a slight upward bias in the short term, and the appreciation pace will slow down after breaking 7 [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Quantity - Price and Policy Signals Quantity - Price Observation - The implied volatility curve of the 3 - month USD/CNY option shows an appreciation trend of the RMB, with the volatility on the Put side higher than that on the Call side, and the overall implied volatility shows an upward trend [4]. Policy Observation - The counter - cyclical factor remains in the negative range but has not been activated. There is a fluctuation in the three - month CNH HIBOR - SHIBOR spread [7]. Fundamentals and Views Macro - Economy - **Interest Rate Cut and Liquidity**: There is a divergence in the pricing of interest rate cuts between the US and Europe. The TGA account balance was 861.4 billion on December 17 (previous value: 805.8 billion), and the reserve balance of depository institutions in October was 2.94 trillion (- 123.4 billion). The pace of interest rate cuts by non - US central banks has generally slowed down, and some have shifted to expectations of interest rate hikes [14]. - **Fed Chair Candidates**: The core competition is between Waller, Hassett, and Warsh. Market probabilities show Hassett leading, but Trump highly trusts Bessent. If Waller wins, it may trigger a reversal trade of "the Fed losing its independence", which is positive for overall US dollar assets and negative for gold, and the market may reduce expectations for interest rate cuts next year. If Hassett wins, it may trigger the market's "muscle memory" of "the Fed losing its independence", which is negative for overall US dollar assets and positive for gold, and the market may raise expectations for interest rate cuts next year [17]. - **US Economic Data**: The US economic data has generally exceeded expectations, but the pace of interest rate cuts remains unchanged. Non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, the CPI increase in November was lower than expected, which supports subsequent interest rate cuts. The PMI has declined slightly, and real estate sales in November increased slightly [19]. - **Inflation**: The US CPI in November was lower than expected. The contributions of food and core commodities decreased, the contribution of crude oil increased, and the contribution of core services decreased. There is a divergence between CPI and PMI [20]. - **Non - farm Payrolls in November**: Compared with September, the non - farm payrolls in November continued to weaken, with only the construction industry showing improvement. In the unemployment rate, re - employment and temporary unemployment had negative contributions, indicating a change in the employment environment [22]. - **Chinese Economy**: There is a situation of strong expectation but weak reality in the Chinese economy. In November, imports and exports showed resilience, but there is still great pressure on fixed - asset investment, and consumption has slowed down. Against the background of increasing marginal pressure, the government's policy window has loosened, and the gap between fundamentals and sentiment has widened [24]. Settlement and Sale of Foreign Exchange - The supply and demand of foreign exchange are generally balanced. The surplus of bank settlement and sale of foreign exchange has fallen to 15.65 billion US dollars, and although the surplus continues, it is gradually weakening at the margin. The scale of settlement and sale of foreign exchange has not significantly increased or decreased, and the marginal guidance of single - month data on the exchange rate has declined. Enterprises' spot - end operations tend to be rational, with the settlement rate of foreign exchange receipts falling to 51.99% and the purchase rate of foreign exchange payments falling to 60.30%. Enterprises maintain a balanced payment and receipt management, and there is no concentrated settlement or sale of foreign exchange. On the forward end, the management is mainly about existing risks. The demand for new forward hedging has cooled down, and the performance shows a divergence of "decrease in settlement and increase in purchase". The net forward settlement of foreign exchange that has not expired continues to rise, and the hedging structure is stable without showing directional bets [31]. Foreign - related Receipts and Payments - The overall surplus has significantly narrowed, but the structure is stable. The surplus of domestic banks' agency foreign - related receipts and payments has declined. Both the current account and the capital and financial account have weakened simultaneously, reflecting a rhythm adjustment rather than a directional change. The surplus foundation of the current account is still solid. The current account surplus has decreased from 74.66 billion to 55.24 billion US dollars, mainly due to the stable export rhythm and the marginal repair of imports. The goods trade surplus is still as high as 72.67 billion US dollars, indicating the resilience of the foreign trade fundamentals. The service trade deficit has expanded to - 6.42 billion US dollars, weakening the support for the surplus. The capital and financial account has a structural outflow, but the pressure has eased. The capital account deficit has expanded to - 38.61 billion US dollars, among which the securities investment deficit has significantly narrowed, and the direct investment deficit has slightly improved. There is no concentrated outflow in a single channel, and cross - border capital flows remain controllable [36]. Overall Viewpoint - The current situation shows that the difference in economic expectations is favorable for the RMB. The US employment and business activities have cooled down simultaneously, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% and the wage growth rate falling to 3.5%. In the same period, China's economic growth - stabilizing policies have continued to take effect, and exports and the current account surplus are robust. The Sino - US interest rate difference is neutral. Under the Fed's interest rate - cut cycle, the real return advantage of the US dollar has converged, while China's monetary policy maintains a stable orientation and the interest rate system is stable. The uncertainty of trade policy is neutral. The US trade and industrial policies towards China still have uncertainties, but the adjustment rhythm has slowed down. China's export market continues to diversify, the trade surplus has reached a record high, and the external demand structure is stable [40]. 2026 Scenario Deduction - There are multiple important events and turning points throughout 2026, including the Fed chair candidate situation at the end of 2025, OPEC and FOMC meetings in January, the government work report in February, the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference in March, the expiration of Powell's term in May, the FOMC meeting on June 18, the El Nino situation in June, the Politburo meeting in July, the FOMC meeting on September 29, the US mid - term elections on November 3, and the postponement of the expiration of Sino - US tariffs on November 10. These events are related to policy expectations, inventory cycles, and economic re - balancing, which will have an impact on the economic situation [43].

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The Governor of the Bank of Japan, Kazuo Ueda, signaled a likely interest rate hike next year, indicating increased confidence in achieving sustainable price targets [1][5][6] - Ueda mentioned that the prospects for achieving the 2% price stability target are steadily approaching, supported by rising wages and changes in corporate behavior regarding wage and price setting [1][5] - A Bloomberg survey indicated that most observers expect the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates every six months from now [1][5] Group 2: Fiscal Policy and Budget - Prime Minister Fumio Kishida's cabinet plans to announce a record initial budget for the fiscal year starting April 2024, totaling approximately 122.3 trillion yen (about 786 billion USD), which is a 6.3% increase from the current fiscal year's budget [1][6] - The government plans to raise about 29.6 trillion yen through new government bonds to fund the budget, with the reliance on bond issuance expected to decrease from 24.9% to 24.2% [1][6] - Kishida stated that the budget aims to balance economic strengthening and fiscal sustainability [1][6]

金瑞期货表示，此前公布的非农以及CPI数据偏弱，市场降息预期小幅回升，叠加议息会议偏鸽，使得 金银获得一定支撑。白银继续受到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上 涨；铂钯则在外盘休市和国内市场情绪和资金带动下走出独立行情。而中长期来说，宏观上包括主权国 家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，金银价格的长期核心驱动因素仍 保持稳健。 新湖期货表示，市场投资热情高涨，叠加国内库存在10月底接近干涸，虽然本月以来有所回升，但仍处 于较低水平，使得国内沪银溢价大幅飙升，创下历史新高。国际方面，全球白银ETF持续流入，全球最 大的白银ETF——SLV（美国）22日单日流入533吨，是历史上第四大单日流入量。同时COMEX白银通 知交割单量持续增加，目前仍未看到交割压力缓解迹象。预计白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上涨空 间，但追高风险较大，建议投资者谨慎考虑。中长期来看，央行购金具有持续性，叠加全球货币的泛滥 和去美元化趋势不可逆甚至加速，将继续支撑贵金属中枢上行，后续贵金属可能仍偏强。 金瑞期货：宏观与低库存共振，银价保持强势 新湖期货：白银在12月底交割前可能仍有一定上 ...

Core Viewpoint - The analysis provides insights into the price trends and key drivers for various precious metals, including gold, silver, platinum, and palladium, up to December 24, 2025, highlighting potential volatility and risks at high price levels [2]. Group 1: Short-term, Medium-term, and Long-term Outlook - **Gold**: Expected to experience high-level fluctuations with support between 4100–4200, followed by a potential upward movement. The medium-term outlook suggests a strong average price, supported by monetary attributes, while the long-term trend remains within a high price range [2]. - **Silver**: Anticipated to show significant volatility with support at 62–64, driven by industrial demand and financial attributes. The long-term outlook remains positive due to a balanced supply-demand scenario [2]. - **Platinum**: After an overbought condition, a pullback is expected with support at 1900–1950, followed by a potential rebound. The long-term outlook is strong, supported by a persistent supply gap and increasing demand from hydrogen and fuel cell applications [2]. - **Palladium**: Expected to experience a pullback after a corrective rise, with support at 1650–1700. The long-term outlook is weak due to declining gasoline vehicle demand and increased substitution, leading to reduced returns and stability [2]. Group 2: Key Conclusions and Recommendations - For **gold and silver**, the short-term outlook indicates high-level fluctuations, while the medium-term trend remains unchanged, suggesting a phased investment approach with risk management [2]. - For **platinum**, a strong medium-term trend is expected, with recommendations to wait for a pullback before entering positions [2]. - For **palladium**, the risk of a pullback is high after a corrective rise, with advice to reduce positions at high levels and adopt a wait-and-see approach [2]. Group 3: Trigger Signals and Operational Suggestions - Key reversal signals include the Federal Reserve pausing interest rate cuts or restarting hikes, a sustained strengthening of the US dollar index, significant easing of geopolitical risks, and a rapid narrowing of the spot market gap for platinum group metals [3]. - Operational advice includes setting stop-loss levels (gold at 4000, silver at 60, platinum at 1800, palladium at 1550), building positions gradually, and avoiding chasing high prices, with a long-term focus on gold and silver and swing trading for platinum and palladium [3].

A股三大指数下跌，截至午间收盘，沪指跌0.19%报3952.09点，深证成指涨0.17%，创业板指跌0.15%， 北证50涨0.08%。全市场成交额14648亿元，较上日成交额放量2529亿元，超3900股下跌。盘面上，海 南自贸港封关首周进口"零关税"享惠货物超4亿元，海南板块全线上涨；地缘局势叠加降息预期助推金 银创新高，黄金及其他有色金属板块走强；电池、锂矿、光伏设备板块涨幅居前。造纸、CPO、白酒板 块走低。 ...

期货市场交易指引 2025 年 12 月 26 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 中长期看好，逢低做多 | | ◆国债： | 震荡运行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆焦煤： | 短线交易 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 区间交易 | | ◆玻璃： | 止盈观望 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议加强观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 区间交易 | | ◆白银： | 多单持有，新开单谨慎 | | ◆碳酸锂： | 偏强震荡 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： | 区间交易 | | ◆烧碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆纯碱： | 暂时观望 | | ◆苯乙烯： | 区间交易 | | ◆橡胶： | 区间交易 | | ◆尿素： | 区间交易 | | ◆甲醇： | 区间交易 | | ◆聚烯烃： | 偏弱震荡 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡偏强 | | ◆苹果： | 震荡运行 | | ◆红枣： | 震荡运行 | | | 农业畜牧 | | ◆生猪： | 震荡筑底 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report On December 23, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai silver futures reached a new historical high, which was the result of the resonance of macro - easing expectations, the explosion of industrial demand, geopolitical risk - aversion sentiment, and the market short - squeeze logic. In the short term, Shanghai silver is likely to continue its strong and volatile pattern [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Contract Market**: On December 23, 2025, the main 2602 contract of Shanghai silver futures continued its strong upward trend, reaching a maximum of 16,573 yuan/kg during the session and closing at 16,441 yuan/kg, with a daily increase of 4.30%. The market was bullish [2]. - **Variety Market**: The trading volume of the main 2602 contract of Shanghai silver futures on that day was 1,230,157 lots, a decrease of about 27.8% compared with the previous trading day, indicating that funds were more cautious due to high - level fluctuations. The open interest remained relatively high at 340,510 lots, slightly decreasing from the previous day, showing that the long - position structure was still stable. The market showed the characteristic of "decreasing volume and rising price", reflecting intensified high - level gaming among funds and a dominant bullish sentiment [5]. - **Spot Market Data**: On December 23, 2025, domestic silver spot prices also reached new records. The prices of national standard No. 1, No. 2, and No. 3 silver were 16,340 yuan/kg, 16,325 yuan/kg, and 16,310 yuan/kg respectively, all rising by 320 yuan/kg compared with the previous day. The narrowing of the discount reflected the tight supply of spot silver and an increased expectation of physical delivery [6]. 3.2 Influencing Factors - **Macro - aspect**: The strengthening of interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risk - aversion led to a concentrated release of precious - metal buying. The US dollar index continued to weaken, and the RMB against the US dollar broke through 7.02. Tensions in the Middle East and the escalation of Ukraine's attacks on Russia's "shadow fleet" drove global risk - averse funds to flow into precious - metal assets [8]. - **Technical - aspect**: The daily MACD indicator of the Shanghai silver 2602 contract continued to run above the zero - axis, with the fast and slow lines in a long - position arrangement, indicating a stable upward trend. The daily KDJ indicator continued to give a bullish signal, and the RSI indicator rose but did not enter the overbought range, suggesting sufficient short - term upward momentum [8].

铜价新高，持续性如何展望 20251224 摘要 交易所价差驱动库存向美国转移，加剧非美地区现货紧张，叠加国内下 游补库需求，共同推动铜价上涨。关注库存转移对全球铜供应格局的影 响。 非农数据和失业率数据强化降息预期，美元指数下跌，美联储官员言论 进一步巩固市场对未来降息的预期，为金融市场提供利好。关注降息预 期对铜价的支撑作用。 预计 2026 年全球主要矿企新增铜产量仅 30-40 万吨，远低于 3%的需 求增速，供需缺口扩大。美国可能推迟进口关税，继续囤积铜，加剧全 球供应短缺。关注供需缺口变化。 美联储 2026 年预计两次降息，对金融市场形成支撑。美国增加铜作为 战略金属储备的需求，进一步收紧全球供应。关注战略金属储备政策。 多家海外冶炼厂因原料紧张和加工费低而减产或停产，预计 2026 年冶 炼端供应紧张加剧。关注冶炼厂减产停产对铜供应的影响。 2024 年前三季度全球主要矿企新增铜产量远低于预期，智利等地存量 矿下降、开采难度增加及地缘政治风险加剧供应不确定性。关注地缘政 治风险对铜矿供应的影响。 电力电网投资、新基建、AI 产业发展、国内稳内需政策、欧美老旧电网 改造以及新兴经济体基建投资均将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The US dollar index (DXY) has reached a two-month low, with a year-to-date decline exceeding 9%, potentially marking the largest annual drop since 2017, driven by Federal Reserve policy divergence, rising rate cut expectations, and concerns over the US economy [1][2] Group 1: Dollar Performance - As of December 25, the dollar index was at 97.95, having fallen below the 98.50 support level for three consecutive days, confirming its weak trend [1] - The dollar's weakness is attributed to a combination of factors including the Federal Reserve's recent rate cut to 3.5%-3.75% and internal divisions among officials regarding future policy direction [1][2] - The market anticipates only a 21% probability of a rate cut in January 2026, indicating significant policy uncertainty that is suppressing the dollar's potential for recovery [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The US GDP annualized growth rate for Q3 was 4.3%, which did not bolster the dollar, as investors are more focused on cooling inflation and slowing employment, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6% in November [1] - Concerns over US debt and deficits are shaking investor confidence in the dollar, with expectations of two additional rate cuts in 2026 [1] Group 3: Non-USD Currencies - Non-US currencies have collectively strengthened, with the euro appreciating approximately 14% this year, supported by European Central Bank rate hike expectations [2] - The Swiss franc and Swedish krona have risen by 14.5% and 19% respectively, while the Japanese yen and offshore Chinese yuan have also gained strength, further diminishing the dollar's attractiveness [2] Group 4: Technical Analysis and Future Outlook - Technical indicators suggest a bearish outlook for the dollar, with a daily chart showing a downward trend and the RSI near 40, indicating it has not yet reached oversold conditions [2] - Analysts predict that if the dollar cannot regain the 98.50 level, it may test the 97.00 mark [2] - The ongoing policy uncertainty is expected to continue to suppress the dollar, with potential for a rebound if economic conditions or inflation improve [2]

Group 1 - The market is increasingly betting on a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve, with the probability rising to 89.2% according to CME data [2] - Major investment banks like Goldman Sachs and Bank of America have adjusted their expectations, citing a weak labor market as a driving factor for this "preemptive rate cut" [2] - Recent data shows that cryptocurrency investment products attracted $1.07 billion in inflows, reversing four consecutive weeks of outflows, with Bitcoin and Ethereum products being the main focus [2] Group 2 - The rate cut is expected to lower returns on cash and fixed-income assets, prompting a search for higher-yield investments, with cryptocurrency emerging as a key alternative [3] - Following the rate cut, institutional clients have increased their cryptocurrency allocations by 12%, with Bitcoin ETF inflows exceeding $5 billion [3] - The easing of monetary policy has boosted market risk appetite, with the dollar index declining and enhancing Bitcoin's appeal as "digital gold" [5] Group 3 - DeFi lending rates have dropped below 3%, leading to a 25% monthly increase in leveraged trading volume, and the total value locked in the crypto ecosystem is recovering from $86 billion [5] - Coinup.io offers various tools for investors, including a fund flow monitoring tool to track large capital movements in the crypto market [5] - The platform provides customized investment strategies for different risk profiles, including conservative and aggressive options [6] Group 4 - Coinup.io has established a multi-layered risk control system, including real-time risk alerts and strict asset custody measures to ensure fund security [6] - The platform also offers a specialized course on "cryptocurrency strategies during the rate cut cycle," providing comprehensive guidance for investors [6] - New users can receive a "newbie benefits package," which includes transaction fee reductions and staking yield enhancements [6] Group 5 - While the rate cut injects optimism into the crypto market, investors are advised to remain rational and avoid blindly chasing high prices [7] - A suggested investment strategy is to follow a logical sequence of "first the market, then the ecosystem, and finally the segments" [7] - Professional tools should be utilized to track capital movements and manage risks effectively in a market characterized by both opportunities and risks [8]