Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Macro-finance**: Index futures are bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips; Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [1][5]. - **Black building materials**: Coking coal is suitable for short - term trading; rebar is for range trading; glass is recommended to sell on rallies [1][7]. - **Non - ferrous metals**: Copper is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations; aluminum suggests enhanced observation; nickel suggests observation or selling on rallies; tin is for range trading; gold is for range trading; silver is expected to be relatively strong; lithium carbonate is expected to trade in a range [1][10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: PVC is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy; caustic soda and soda ash suggest temporary observation; styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are for range trading; polyolefins are expected to be weakly volatile [1][18]. - **Cotton - spinning industry chain**: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to adjust sideways; apples are expected to be slightly strong sideways; jujubes are expected to rebound from the bottom [1][26]. - **Agriculture and animal husbandry**: Pigs are recommended to sell on rallies in the near - term contracts and be cautiously bullish in the far - term contracts; eggs suggest waiting to sell on rallies for hedging; corn suggests being cautious about chasing highs in the short term and selling on rallies for hedging; soymeal is recommended to be bullish on dips in the near - term contracts and bearish on rallies in the far - term contracts; oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [1][29]. Core Views The report provides trading suggestions for various futures products based on their market fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic factors. It analyzes the influencing factors of each product and gives corresponding investment strategies, including buying on dips, selling on rallies, range trading, and temporary observation [1]. Summaries by Categories Macro - finance - **Index futures**: Influenced by factors such as Fed officials' statements, employment data, and China's monetary policy, the market sentiment has cooled, and index futures are expected to trade sideways. It is bullish in the medium to long term, suggesting buying on dips [5]. - **Treasury bonds**: After the central bank's interest rate cut of structural monetary policy tools, the bond market showed a deep "V" trend. Treasury bonds are expected to trade sideways [5]. Black building materials - **Coking coal**: With a slowdown in replenishment and cautious purchasing, and an accumulation of port inventories, the market is in a state of short - term balance between bulls and bears. It is suitable for short - term trading [7]. - **Rebar**: The futures price is in the range between valley - electricity cost and flat - electricity cost of the electric furnace. In the short term, it is in a policy vacuum period, and the export is expected to weaken. It is expected to trade sideways, and attention can be paid to the positive cash - futures arbitrage opportunities [7]. - **Glass**: Although there are short - term factors such as production line shutdowns and inventory reduction, the fundamental pattern has not changed. The inventory problem will still be prominent, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [7][8]. Non - ferrous metals - **Copper**: In the short term, the upward momentum is exhausted, but the long - term shortage expectation still exists. It is expected to trade in a high - level range with a possible downward shift in the range. It is advised to hold long positions cautiously at low levels and conduct rolling operations [10][11]. - **Aluminum**: The over - supply of alumina is a reality, and the policy is uncertain. The upward pressure on aluminum prices is large in January. It is recommended to enhance observation [12]. - **Nickel**: Although there is a reduction in nickel ore quotas, the long - term oversupply is expected to continue. It is recommended to observe or sell on rallies [13][14]. - **Tin**: With tight supply and recovering downstream consumption, it is expected to trade strongly sideways. It is recommended to build positions on dips [14]. - **Silver and gold**: Affected by factors such as the US employment data and interest rate cuts, the medium - term price centers are expected to move up. Silver is recommended to hold long positions, and gold is for range trading [16]. - **Lithium carbonate**: With supply uncertainties and strong downstream demand, it is expected to trade in a range [17][18]. Energy and chemicals - **PVC**: Although the current supply - demand situation is weak, it has a low valuation. It is recommended to adopt a low - buying strategy, and attention can be paid to policies and cost - end disturbances [18]. - **Caustic soda**: With large supply pressure and weak demand, it is recommended to temporarily observe [20]. - **Styrene**: After a previous rebound, the valuation is high. It is for range trading, and attention should be paid to cost and supply - demand changes [20]. - **Rubber**: In a state of long - short balance, it is for range trading. Attention should be paid to inventory and downstream demand [21]. - **Urea**: With an increase in supply and stable demand, it is expected to trade in a range. Attention should be paid to factors such as compound fertilizer production and export policies [22]. - **Methanol**: With a recovery in supply and a weak traditional demand, the price is expected to be weak in the inland market and strong in some areas. It is for range trading [24]. - **Polyolefins**: With a loose supply and a weakening demand in the traditional off - season, the price is expected to be weakly volatile [24][25]. - **Soda ash**: With an over - supply situation and rising costs, it is recommended to temporarily observe [26]. Cotton - spinning industry chain - **Cotton and cotton yarn**: According to the USDA report, the global cotton supply - demand situation has changed, and the price has adjusted after a previous rise. It is recommended to be cautious in the short term and optimistic in the long term [26][27]. - **Apples**: The market is relatively stable, with different trading situations in different regions. It is expected to be slightly strong sideways [27]. - **Jujubes**: The acquisition in Xinjiang has ended, and the market is showing signs of a bottom - rebound [28]. Agriculture and animal husbandry - **Pigs**: In the short term, the supply pressure is large, and the price is expected to be under pressure. In the long term, the capacity reduction is slow, and it is recommended to be cautiously bullish. It is suitable to sell on rallies for hedging [29][30]. - **Eggs**: The short - term price is expected to be strong seasonally, but the supply is sufficient. In the long term, the capacity reduction takes time. It is recommended to wait to sell on rallies for hedging [32][33]. - **Corn**: In the short term, the price increase is limited, and it is recommended to be cautious about chasing highs and sell on rallies for hedging. In the long term, the demand is gradually released, but the supply - demand situation is relatively loose [34][35][36]. - **Soymeal**: The short - term near - term contract is recommended to be bullish on dips, and the far - term contract is recommended to be bearish on rallies [37][38]. - **Oils**: The three major oils are expected to trade sideways, with rapeseed oil being stronger than soybean and palm oils in the short term [38][43].

Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai retreated to 103,000 yuan per ton, while London copper fluctuated around 13,155 USD [4][17] - The U.S. initial jobless claims fell to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a slowdown in the job market, but the Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a cooling market sentiment [5][17] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange by 13,000 tons to 163,000 tons, while LME copper inventories decreased by 500 tons to 141,100 tons [5][17] - The State Grid expects investments during the 14th Five-Year Plan to reach 4 trillion yuan, a 40% increase compared to the previous plan [5][17] - Overall, macro sentiment adjustments and the postponement of key overseas mineral tariff investigations may exert pressure on recent prices, but pre-holiday stocking demand and raw material tightness may limit the downside for copper prices [5][17] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - Indonesia's Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced an adjustment of nickel ore RKAB quotas to 250-260 million tons by 2026, which is expected to provide short-term support for nickel prices [6][18] - The nickel market lacks further supply-demand contradictions, and the tightening quota expectations have already been priced in [6][18] - The current strategy for nickel and stainless steel is to remain on the sidelines, with Shanghai nickel futures expected to trade between 140,000 and 160,000 yuan per ton [6][19] Group 3: Aluminum Market - The price of alumina has slightly declined, maintaining a downward trend in spot prices, with the 05 contract showing increased short positions [20] - The overall supply of alumina is excessive, with production slightly rebounding to around 96 million tons [20] - The market anticipates a continued decline in spot prices due to lower production costs and reduced concerns about large-scale production cuts in the alumina industry [20] - The 05 contract for alumina is expected to trade between 2,500 and 2,800 yuan per ton, with a recommendation to hold short positions [20][21] Group 4: Zinc Market - Zinc prices showed a slight upward trend, with the U.S. initial jobless claims decreasing and the New York manufacturing index returning to expansion territory [23] - Domestic TC prices are stabilizing at low levels, while overseas prices are also declining, leading to a slight recovery in the import supply [23] - The strategy for zinc is to remain observant, with the main contract expected to trade between 24,500 and 25,500 yuan per ton [23] Group 5: Lead Market - Lead prices showed a slight upward trend, with supply-side pressures easing due to adjustments in primary smelter maintenance plans [24] - The recycling of waste batteries is expected to decline, but the willingness of recyclers to maintain prices is increasing [24] - The strategy for lead is to operate within a range, with the main contract expected to trade between 17,000 and 18,000 yuan per ton [24] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals experienced slight fluctuations, with gold, silver, and palladium showing minor pullbacks, while platinum saw slight gains [26] - The U.S. has temporarily refrained from imposing tariffs on key minerals, which has led to some profit-taking pressure in the market [26] - The overall market remains uncertain, with ongoing geopolitical tensions supporting safe-haven demand for precious metals [26]

Group 1 - International precious metals futures closed mixed, with COMEX gold futures down 0.33% at $4620.50 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 0.90% at $92.21 per ounce [1] - Analysts believe that hawkish signals from Federal Reserve officials and better-than-expected U.S. economic data have increased rate hike expectations, putting pressure on gold prices [1] - On January 15, Asian gold and silver prices fell as investors took profits after both metals reached historical highs in the previous trading session [1] Group 2 - Spot silver prices touched a historical high of $93.57 per ounce before dropping 3.4% to $89.63 per ounce, following signals of easing geopolitical tensions [1] - Investors engaged in profit-taking after three consecutive days of significant price increases, leading to a decline in gold prices [5] - The market is awaiting U.S. weekly initial jobless claims data to gain further insights into the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction, with traders expecting two rate cuts this year [5] Group 3 - As of January 14, the Huaan Gold ETF's circulation scale reached 100.762 billion yuan, becoming the first gold ETF in China to surpass 100 billion yuan and maintaining its position as the largest gold ETF in Asia [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable surge in silver prices, which have increased significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic policies, and industrial demand, positioning silver as a key investment opportunity in the current market [2][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a structural shortage, with a projected supply gap of 3,700 tons by 2025, marking a ten-year high. This shortage is exacerbated by the fact that approximately 70-72% of silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to increase silver production in the short term [10][11]. - Major silver-producing countries are experiencing production declines due to various factors, including political instability in Peru and sanctions affecting Russia, while new mining projects in Australia are insufficient to offset declines from older mines [10][11]. Industrial Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - Industrial demand for silver has exploded, with over 60% of silver consumption now coming from industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to demand 0.61 million tons by 2025 [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has created a favorable backdrop for silver investments, driving down the holding costs of non-yielding assets like silver [15]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The market has seen a significant influx of investment, with net physical investment in silver projected to reach approximately 6,400 tons by 2025. This surge in interest has led to a dramatic increase in silver prices, with a notable 3.56% rise in a single day [17]. - There is a stark divide among institutional forecasts regarding silver prices, with optimistic projections suggesting a target of $100 per ounce in the near term, while more conservative views highlight potential volatility and profit-taking among investors [18]. Conclusion - The current silver market is characterized by a combination of strong fundamental support from supply-demand dynamics and industrial growth, alongside speculative investment behavior. Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, considering both the potential for high returns and the inherent volatility associated with silver investments [19].

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责 任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任 何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用 、删节和修改。 贵金属期货日报 2026/1/15 免责声明 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪金主力合约收盘价（日，元/克） | 1035.200 | -5.4↓ 沪银主力合约收盘价（日，元/千克） | 22665 | -98.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪金(日,手) | 93,276.00 | -7403.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:沪银(日,手) | 1,470.00 | +32.00↑ | | | 主力合约成交量:沪金 | 190,086.00 | -11001.00↓ ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a "slight to moderate" improvement in the U.S. economy by late 2025 to early 2026, reinforcing market confidence in a "soft landing" and reducing the urgency for significant monetary policy easing in the short term [1] Economic Activity - Economic activity has shown a moderate recovery across most U.S. regions since mid-November, with no signs of recession. Eight out of twelve Federal Reserve districts reported stable employment conditions, and wage growth is returning to historical norms, indicating a balanced labor market [2] Inflation Trends - The Beige Book reveals that while most regions continue to see moderate price increases, some businesses are beginning to pass on cost pressures to consumers as inventory built for tariffs is depleted. This suggests that while overall inflation is trending downward, complete alleviation of price pressures will take time [3] Market Expectations - Recent macroeconomic data, including non-farm payrolls, CPI, and retail sales, have led to a reassessment of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut expectations for 2026. Market pricing for rate cuts has been adjusted from three to two, with the first cut now expected in June instead of March [4] Policy Stance - Federal Reserve officials maintain a cautious tone, emphasizing data dependency in policy adjustments. The Minneapolis Fed President noted that current interest rates may be near a neutral level, while the Philadelphia Fed President expressed cautious optimism regarding inflation trends [5] Political Environment - The Federal Reserve's policy environment is influenced by political factors, with President Trump indicating no plans to dismiss Fed Chair Powell despite ongoing investigations. This has reignited discussions about the Fed's independence and added uncertainty to long-term policy stability [6] Summary - Overall, the Beige Book reinforces the narrative of a "moderate recovery and soft landing" for the U.S. economy. Employment and consumer spending show resilience, while inflation remains above target levels, limiting the urgency for rate cuts. The interplay of improving economic data and political independence issues is leading to a more conservative outlook on rate cuts for 2026 [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - Multiple factors including interest - rate cut expectations, Fed independence disturbances, and geopolitical risks have strengthened the safe - haven theme of precious metals. Gold maintains high - level oscillations with a dominant allocation attribute, and silver breaks through the $90 mark due to the return of financial attributes and tight liquidity [3]. - Gold is supported at a high level by the decline in real interest rates and credit disturbances, while silver's elasticity is fully released due to the return of financial attributes and structural tightening. Both gold and silver are expected to maintain an overall oscillating and strengthening trend, but silver may face higher volatility [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Key Information - Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae is considering dissolving the House of Representatives next week and holding a general election on February 8 [4]. - Trump threatens to impose a 25% tariff on countries trading with Iran [4]. - The US December CPI annual rate remained flat at 2.7%, the core CPI annual rate at 2.6%, the monthly CPI rose 0.31%, and the monthly core CPI rose 0.24%, lower than the market expectation of 0.30% [4]. 3.2 Price Logic Gold - The decline in real interest rates and credit disturbances support its high - level operation. Weak US inflation data strengthens market expectations of further interest - rate cuts, and political disturbances to the Fed's independence and repeated geopolitical situations increase the demand for safe - haven allocation. Gold's high - level oscillations are mainly for trading, and the trend remains intact [5]. Silver - It benefits from both interest - rate cut and safe - haven logics. The potential US tariff policy boosts hoarding demand, leading to a temporary contraction in the globally available supply and pushing the silver price above $90. It has higher elasticity than gold at present but may face higher volatility risks [5]. 3.3 Outlook - The temporary disturbances from the adjustment of the Bloomberg Commodity Index weight have been digested. Gold and silver are expected to maintain an oscillating and strengthening trend due to the long - term expectation of loose liquidity, pro - cyclical trading, and concerns about resource security. The center of gold price may continue to rise, while silver may remain highly volatile, with the risk of temporary pullbacks [5]. 3.4 Index Information Special Index - The Commodity Index is 2425.27, down 0.30%; the Commodity 20 Index is 2779.12, down 0.28%; the Industrial Products Index is 2348.14, down 0.52% [48]. Sector Index - The Precious Metals Index on January 13, 2026, is 4222.51, with a daily increase of 0.15%, a 5 - day increase of 4.75%, a 1 - month increase of 15.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 10.41% [50].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices reached historical highs on January 14, with spot gold peaking at $4,634 per ounce before closing at $4,586, while silver rose by 2.1% to $86.92, hitting a high of $89.11 during the day [1][5]. Fundamental News - The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for December showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7%, which was lower than analyst expectations. Core CPI rose by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, also below expectations [2][6]. - Despite the lower-than-expected inflation data supporting the case for interest rate cuts, it also indicated signs of economic cooling. St. Louis Fed President Musalem stated that there is no reason for further rate cuts in the near term as inflation remains above the 2% target [2][7]. - Geopolitical tensions are rising, with Israel's Foreign Minister announcing the country's withdrawal from several UN agencies, citing "anti-Israel bias." Additionally, the U.S. government is seeking to seize oil tankers linked to Venezuela, further escalating tensions in the region [2][7]. Technical Analysis - The daily chart for gold indicates that while there has been a recent upward trend, the market is showing signs of reduced bullish sentiment, as evidenced by a surprising bearish close following the CPI data release. This suggests a potential risk of price correction if the market fails to maintain support levels [3][8]. - The hourly chart shows that after reaching $4,635, gold prices fell back to around $4,570, indicating significant emotional trading risks. The market is currently in a high-level consolidation phase, which will need to withstand both time and fundamental pressures [3][8]. Trading Recommendations - For the day, gold is expected to trade within a wide range between $4,630 and $4,570, with recommendations to consider low buys and high sells within this range. Traders are advised to maintain strict stop-loss levels of around 10 points due to the emotional nature of current market movements [4][9].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views - Geopolitical risks are driving up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus and the lack of confirmed conflicts. Precious metals remain bullish, and various commodities and financial products show different trends affected by factors such as supply - demand, policies, and geopolitical situations. [2][3] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: US December CPI data boosts market expectations for a rate cut in April. API shows a significant weekly inventory build. Geopolitical tensions in Iran drive up oil prices, but short - term upside is limited due to supply surplus in Q1 2026. [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Fuel oil follows crude oil price movements. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand as a substitute for asphalt if Venezuelan heavy - oil supply is disrupted. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is expected to increase, with a weakening fundamental outlook. [22] - **Asphalt**: Iranian geopolitical tensions lead to a rebound in crude oil prices, but asphalt's price increase is limited. Attention should be paid to the arrival of Venezuelan crude oil. [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: US December CPI data and Iranian tensions make precious metals bullish. [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: LME copper shows signs that support domestic refined copper exports. Chile raises its copper production target. [4] - **Aluminum**:沪铝 tests historical highs, but the break - through is unconfirmed. High profits prompt aluminum plants to consider selling - hedging. [5] - **Zinc**: Zinc prices rise, but high prices may have a negative impact on downstream consumption. [8] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**:沪镍 falls, while stainless - steel market activity is high. Inventory changes show different trends for pure nickel, nickel - iron, and stainless steel. [10] - **Tin**:沪锡 trading is driven by increased funds. Indonesian tin exports are significant, and option trading amplifies price fluctuations. [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The market is active. Upstream sales strategies change, and demand remains strong. Inventory changes vary among different sectors. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: It has a weak supply - demand situation. Reduced production in the north is not enough to offset weak demand from downstream industries. [13] - **Polysilicon**: Prices continue to decline. The market trading logic has changed, and caution is advised. [14] Steel - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively abundant, and the demand is weak. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a bullish - oscillating trend. Carbon element supply is abundant, and downstream iron - water production may bottom - out and rebound. [17][18] - **Silicon Manganese & Silicon Ferrosilicon**: Both suggest a strategy of buying on dips. They are affected by factors such as raw material prices, inventory, and demand from the iron - making industry. [19][20] - **Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil**: Steel prices are in a range - bound pattern. Demand is weak, and supply is gradually recovering. [15] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is in a stalemate. Production increases, and downstream demand shows mixed trends. Short - term prices may decline slightly, but the downward space is limited. [24] - **Methanol**: Geopolitical factors cause significant price fluctuations. Overseas supply is low, but domestic demand is weakening, and the driving force for price increases is weakening. [25] - **Pure Benzene**: Cost - driven short - term price increases, but the fundamental situation is weak, and long - term de - stocking is difficult. [26] - **Styrene**: Cost - support is strengthened, and the supply - demand is in a tight balance. [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Rising oil prices are beneficial to the market. Supply and demand show different trends for each product. [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may strengthen in the long - term with potential de - capacity. Caustic soda is in a weak state, and the profit of chlor - alkali integration may be compressed. [29] - **PX & PTA**: Geopolitical risks drive up prices, but downstream demand is weakening. [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is expected to increase domestically and decrease overseas. Short - term attention should be paid to oil price fluctuations, and the long - term outlook is still under pressure. [31] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Demand for both is weakening in the short - term. Cost is the main driving factor, and long - term over - capacity is a pressure. [32] Agricultural Products - **Soybean & Soybean Meal**: The USDA report is bearish. South American weather and US soybean exports are important factors to watch. [36] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: The market is affected by bio - diesel expectations and supply - side factors. It is expected to be range - bound. [37] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The US Department of Agriculture report indicates a loose supply - demand situation. The market is affected by Sino - Canadian relations and inventory levels. [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: Domestic soybean prices are回调. Supply is tight at the grassroots level, but demand is cautious. [39] - **Corn**: The US corn harvest is large, and the domestic market is affected by supply and demand factors. It is expected to fluctuate widely. [40] - **Livestock & Poultry Products** - **Pig**: The futures market is oscillating. Short - term supply pressure is high, and long - term prices may form a double - bottom pattern. [41] - **Egg**: Egg prices are expected to strengthen in the first half of 2026 due to reduced supply and increased demand. [42] - **Cotton**: The US cotton report is bullish, but the domestic market is in the off - season. Demand is stable, and the planting area policy in Xinjiang is uncertain. [43] - **Sugar**: International sugar production shows different trends in different countries. Domestic sugar production in Guangxi is expected to increase, and the rebound of Zhengzhou sugar is limited. [44] - **Apple**: Apple futures prices rise. The market focus shifts to demand, and the high - quality fruit supply is tight. [45] - **Wood & Pulp** - **Wood**: Wood prices are at a low level. Supply is expected to decrease, and demand is in the off - season. Low inventory provides some support. [46] - **Pulp**: Pulp prices are stable. Downstream demand is weak, and inventory is increasing. [47] Financial Products - **Stock Index**: A - share markets are expected to be range - bound and strong. Geopolitical situations need to be closely monitored. [48] - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures show a bullish - flattening trend. The strategy of flattening the yield curve is recommended. [49] Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Route)**: Maersk's price cuts indicate a weakening market. The 04 - contract valuation lacks a clear anchor, and far - month contracts are under pressure due to the expected resumption of Red Sea shipping. [21]

美国劳工部发布的2025年12月消费者价格指数（CPI）数据意外"爆冷"，核心CPI环比增速低于市场普遍预期，打破了此前对通胀反弹的 担忧，直接推动市场对美联储的降息预期升温。尽管整体通胀同比增速与前一月持平，但核心通胀的温和表现让市场重新评估美联储的 政策路径，叠加美联储内部本就存在的政策分歧，全球金融市场随之出现短期波动，后续降息节奏的不确定性仍未消散。 数据公布后，金融市场迅速做出反应，降息预期升温的信号显著。美股三大指数盘前直线拉升，但随后涨幅回落，最终道琼斯工业平均 指数下跌0.8%，纳斯达克综指微跌0.1%，标普500指数下跌0.19%。债券市场方面，美债收益率短期下行后趋于平稳，2年期美债收益率 小幅回落2个基点至3.53%，10年期美债收益率短暂下行后持平于4.17%。贵金属市场延续强势，现货白银首次站上88美元/盎司，年内累 计涨幅超23%；美元指数则收复前一日跌幅，推动美元兑日元汇率突破159。 市场对降息预期的定价明显调整，据CME"美联储观察"工具数据，交易员对4月降息的概率预期从数据公布前的38%升至42%，尽管6月 仍被视为最可能的首次降息时间，但降息节奏前移的预期已显现。当前市场 ...