Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical index and oil index experienced a comprehensive increase last week, with the chemical raw materials index rising by 1.50%, the chemical machinery index by 3.96%, the chemical pharmaceuticals index by 2.46%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index by 1.29% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included Vitamin B1, which increased by 12.82%, Vitamin D3 by 7.14%, and toluene diisocyanate by 4.47%, while the top five declining products included liquid chlorine, which fell by 48.51%, and hydrochloric acid by 8.29% [1] Group 2: Oil Sector Performance - International crude oil prices continued a strong trend, with WTI settling at $68.45 per barrel, up 2.16% from July 3, and Brent at $70.36 per barrel, up 3.02% from July 4 [1] - The oil processing index rose by 0.52%, the oil extraction index by 0.88%, and the oil trading index by 0.63% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five rising listed chemical companies in the capital market included Shangwei New Materials, which surged by 72.88%, and Hongbo New Materials, which rose by 24.726% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies included Ruilian New Materials, which fell by 15.98%, and Xingye Co., which dropped by 9.08% [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for YouRan Agriculture Company Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest dairy cattle farming enterprise globally, controlled by Yili Group, covering the entire cycle of breeding, farming, and feed raw material production. Over 90% of its raw milk products are sold to Yili [2][5][10]. Industry Insights - Domestic beef prices are expected to reach historical highs within the next two to three years, while milk prices are rebounding after hitting a low. The industry has already reduced about 10% of its capacity, with further reductions anticipated in the second half of the year [2][3]. - The domestic beef cattle farming industry has experienced significant losses, with a reduction of nearly 30% in breeding and technical cows. A decrease in domestic beef supply is expected by the second half of 2025, indicating a clear price turning point [4][11]. - Globally, beef cattle production has decreased by about 5%, with beef prices starting to recover since 2024, having risen nearly 40% cumulatively [4][12]. Financial Performance - In 2024, YouRan Agriculture's revenue is projected to reach 20.1 billion yuan, but it is expected to incur a net loss of nearly 700 million yuan due to falling raw milk prices and biological asset impairments. Profitability is anticipated to improve starting in 2025 as costs decline and beef prices recover [2][6]. - YouRan's revenue composition includes 75% from goat milk with a gross margin of 30%-40%, and 25% from ancillary businesses like feed, which has a gross margin of 17% [2][7][8]. Capital Expenditure and Cash Flow - Capital expenditures have significantly increased since 2020, but no large-scale capacity expansion is planned in the short to medium term. A reduction in capital expenditures is expected starting in 2025 [9]. - The cash cost of producing raw milk is approximately 3.9 yuan per kilogram, with a sales average of 4.1 yuan per kilogram in 2023, indicating a premium of about 30% over industry costs [9]. Future Profitability and Market Dynamics - The company expects to sell approximately 100,000 culled cows annually, with prices currently at historical lows of 7,000 yuan per head, potentially rising to 14,000-15,000 yuan per head by 2026, contributing significantly to profits [15][16]. - The raw milk business is projected to significantly enhance profitability, with expected sales volumes reaching 4.1 million tons by 2025 and 4.3 million tons by 2026. An increase in raw milk prices could add approximately 2 billion yuan to profits by 2027 [17]. Valuation and Market Position - YouRan Agriculture's current price-to-book (PB) ratio is around 1.1, at historical lows, with potential for significant recovery. The price-to-earnings (PE) ratio is also expected to double as market conditions improve [18]. Conclusion - The overall outlook for YouRan Agriculture is positive, driven by anticipated price recoveries in both beef and raw milk markets, alongside strategic operational adjustments and a strong market position as a leading enterprise in the dairy sector [18].

6月份各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体继续收窄 ——国家统计局城市司首席统计师王中华解读2025年6月份商品住宅销售价格变动情况统计数据 2025年6月份，70个大中城市中，各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降，同比降幅整体继续收窄。 一、各线城市商品住宅销售价格环比下降 6月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.3%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点。其中，上海上涨 0.4%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.3%、0.5%和0.6%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比分别 下降0.2%和0.3%，降幅均与上月相同。 6月份，一线城市二手住宅销售价格环比下降0.7%，降幅与上月相同。其中，北京、上海、广州和深圳 分别下降1.0%、0.7%、0.7%和0.5%。二、三线城市二手住宅销售价格环比均下降0.6%，降幅均扩大0.1 个百分点。 二、各线城市商品住宅销售价格同比降幅整体继续收窄 6月份，一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比下降1.4%，降幅比上月收窄0.3个百分点。其中，上海上涨 6.0%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降4.1%、5.1%和2.5%。二、三线城市新建商品住宅销售价格同比分别 下降3.0%和4.6% ...

国家统计局：上海6月新建商品住宅价格环比+0.4%（前值+0.7%），同比+6.0%（前值+5.9%）。 ...

文 | 《次世代车研所》栏目 张俊 在2025中国汽车论坛上，奇瑞汽车董事长尹同跃犹如一个"脱口秀演员"，在演讲中以自曝"家丑"的形式 赢得喝彩。他直言奇瑞"胆子比较小，总是跟着别人干好事，也是跟着别人干坏事"。 奇瑞究竟干了哪些坏事？ 《次世代车研所》栏目梳理发现，今年以来，奇瑞汽车确实在智驾宣传、价格战、内卷等方面做了不少 尹同跃口中的"坏事"。比如在工信部管控智驾宣传时，尹同跃却在智界发布会上高调声称"智界就是智 驾第一"；在中汽协和工信部倡导反内卷和无序价格战时，奇瑞高管却一边表态反内卷，一边加入价格 战；还有奇瑞高管直接公开诋毁竞争对手，称对方产品是"烂车"。 由此来看，尹同跃所谓的"跟着别人干坏事"的说法，似乎很难让外界信服。 "坏事1"：宣传智驾，顶风作案 在谈到智界的智驾时，他表示，"很多人说自己是智驾第一梯队，我们有信心说我们就是第一，没有梯 队的说法。" 值得注意的是，当时正值工信部管控智驾宣传，尹同跃可谓是"顶风作案"。工信部装备工业一司当时组 织了关于智能网联汽车的会议，其中明确强调："汽车生产企业要深刻领会《通知》要求，充分开展组 合驾驶辅助测试验证，明确系统功能边界和安全响应措施， ...

截至8点30分，国内黄金（99.95%）最新报价为778.04元/克，下跌0.05%。 国际黄金价格报3357.0美元/盎司，下跌0.06%。 走势展望 黄金价格受多种因素交织影响，短期波动或加剧。关税政策和地缘政治紧张带来的避险需求为金价提供 支撑，但美联储政策的不确定性又限制其上涨空间。技术面上，黄金呈现震荡偏强格局，有向上突破可 能。长期来看，各国央行持续购金为金价奠定坚实基础，高盛等机构仍看好黄金后市表现，不过需关注 关税政策后续发展、美联储货币政策走向以及经济数据变化。 来源：金融界 2. 央行购金：今年1 - 5月，各国央行和其他机构平均每月购买77吨黄金，中国是5月最大买家。高盛预 计到2025年底金价达3700美元/盎司，2026年年中升至4000美元/盎司，各国央行持续购金为金价提供结 构性支撑。 3. 美联储政策：美联储内部对降不降息存在分歧，部分官员偏鹰言论限制金价上行。同时，市场关注美 国CPI数据，若通胀数据高于预期，市场对美联储9月降息预期减弱，美元走强，黄金承压；反之则为 黄金提供支撑。 以下是今日对黄金价格走势影响较大的3个主要资讯： 1. 关税政策：特朗普宣布对多国加征关税， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The report analyzes the market conditions of various non - ferrous metals including copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, nickel, lithium carbonate, alumina, stainless steel, and casting aluminum alloy, and gives corresponding price trend forecasts and operation suggestions [2][4]. Summary by Metal Category Copper - **Price Movement**: The LME copper price fell 0.2% to $9643 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 78020 yuan per ton. The US copper tariff will take effect on August 1, and if strictly enforced, the price difference between US copper and LME and SHFE copper is expected to widen, and the prices of LME and SHFE copper will be under pressure [2]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory increased by 900 tons to 109625 tons, and the domestic social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons (SMM caliber). The SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 1100 to 34000 tons [2]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The copper raw material shortage situation remains, but the marginal impact is weakening. After the US copper tariff is implemented, the supply outside the US is expected to increase. It is expected that the copper price will fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the SHFE copper main contract is 77500 - 78600 yuan per ton, and the LME copper 3M is 9500 - 9720 dollars per ton [2]. Aluminum - **Price Movement**: The LME aluminum price fell 0.21% to $2596 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 20405 yuan per ton [4]. - **Inventory**: The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 35000 tons to 501000 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory increased by 5000 tons to 406000 tons [4]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The aluminum ingot inventory remains low, but the supply is expected to increase. Considering the off - season and reduced exports, the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 20200 - 20550 yuan per ton, and the LME aluminum 3M is 2560 - 2620 dollars per ton [4]. Lead - **Price Movement**: The SHFE lead index rose 0.03% to 17096 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell by $10.5 to $2017 per ton [5]. - **Inventory**: The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 55100 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 249400 tons [5]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply of lead ingots is relatively loose, and the downstream demand is gradually improving. The LME lead price is strong, but the increase of SHFE lead is expected to be limited [5]. Zinc - **Price Movement**: The SHFE zinc index fell 0.55% to 22231 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell by $38 to $2739 per ton [7]. - **Inventory**: The domestic social inventory increased slightly to 93100 tons [7]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and the zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, the zinc price is bearish. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate. The SHFE zinc main contract is expected to move between 22231 yuan per ton [7]. Tin - **Price Movement**: The tin price fluctuated. The supply is at a low level, and the demand is weak. The short - term supply and demand are balanced [9][10]. - **Inventory**: The national main market tin ingot social inventory decreased by 110 tons to 9644 tons as of July 11, 2025 [10]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: Due to the strengthened expectation of Myanmar's resumption of production, the tin price is expected to fluctuate weakly. The domestic tin price is expected to operate between 250000 - 280000 yuan per ton, and the LME tin price between 31000 - 35000 dollars per ton [10]. Nickel - **Price Movement**: The nickel price fell under pressure. The contradiction in the nickel market is concentrated in the ferro - nickel production line [11]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [11]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The ferro - nickel price is expected to continue to fall, and the nickel price has a certain short - selling value. The operating range of the SHFE nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan per ton, and the LME nickel 3M is 14500 - 16000 dollars per ton [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price Movement**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 1.11%, and the LC2509 contract rose 3.42% [13]. - **Inventory**: No significant inventory - related information for analysis is provided in the text [13]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply is expected to remain high, and the short - term price is affected by news and demand expectations. The operating range of the LC2509 contract is 65200 - 67700 yuan per ton [13]. Alumina - **Price Movement**: The alumina index rose 0.77% to 3124 yuan per ton [15]. - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts increased by 4800 tons to 23400 tons [16]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The alumina capacity is in excess. The price is expected to be driven up in the short - term but will be anchored by the cost in the long - term. It is recommended to short at high prices. The operating range of the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2850 - 3300 yuan per ton [16]. Stainless Steel - **Price Movement**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 12715 yuan per ton, up 0.04% [18]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased to 1167500 tons, a 0.93% increase [18]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The supply exceeds demand in the short - term, and the spot market is expected to remain weak [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Movement**: The AD2511 contract fell 0.63% to 19805 yuan per ton [20]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi increased by 1400 tons to 27000 tons [20]. - **Supply - Demand and Price Forecast**: The downstream is in the off - season, and the price is expected to face resistance [20].

Core Insights - Wuhan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.4% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, surpassing the national average and ranking third among 19 sub-provincial cities, leading among central provincial capitals [1][2] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 0.9%, indicating a recovery in consumer demand, particularly for services and durable goods [2][3] - The "National Subsidy" policy has significantly stimulated the purchase of home appliances and 3C digital products, contributing to a rise in prices for certain durable goods [4] CPI Trends - In the first half of 2025, Wuhan's CPI growth was 0.5 percentage points higher than the national average, which saw a decline of 0.1% [2] - Monthly CPI trends showed a "V" shape, with a peak increase of 0.7% in January, followed by a decline in February, and a return to positive growth in March through June [2] Service and Durable Goods Consumption - Service prices increased by 1.0%, outpacing the 0.6% rise in non-food prices, reflecting a robust growth in service consumption [4] - The prices of communication tools rose by 3.0%, while entertainment durable goods saw a 2.7% increase, driven by consumer confidence and demand for product upgrades [4] Emerging Consumption Trends - New consumption formats and experiences, such as immersive cultural tourism and sports activities, are gaining popularity, with related service prices increasing by 1.7% [5] - The demand for personalized and participatory sports consumption is on the rise, indicating a shift in consumer preferences [5] Food and Energy Prices - Food prices in Wuhan decreased by 0.7%, primarily due to a 4.4% drop in fresh vegetable prices, influenced by favorable climate conditions [5] - Energy prices also saw a decline, with gasoline and diesel prices dropping by 7.2% and 7.7%, respectively, contributing to a 3.7% decrease in overall energy prices [5]

Somar Meteorologia数据显示，巴西第一大阿拉比卡咖啡豆产区一周降雨量为零——低于正常水平（历 史均值为1.4毫米）。 周一（7月14日）纽约尾盘，ICE原糖期货跌1.57%，ICE白糖期货跌1.96%。 ICE咖啡"C"期货涨5.43%。罗布斯塔咖啡期货涨8.71%。 纽约可可期货涨1.22%，报8277美元/吨，日线图上，5月20日涨至10677美元以来，持续震荡下行。伦敦 可可期货涨0.73%。 ICE棉花期货涨1.02%。 ...

英国央行行长贝利在致G20财长和央行行长的信中表示，自四月以来，市场状况有所改善，资产价格已 回升。 ...