陕西巨丰投资资讯有限责任公司投资顾问总监郭一鸣也告诉《证券日报》记者，整体看，月初市场流动 性维持在相对宽松水平，5月份资金面预计整体平稳。 5月6日，中国人民银行（以下简称"央行"）以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了4050亿元7天期逆回购操 作，操作利率为1.50%。鉴于当日有10870亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日实现净回笼6820亿元。 数据显示，本周（5月6日至5月9日），逆回购到期规模为16178亿元，其中5月6日逆回购到期10870亿 元，5月7日逆回购到期5308亿元，5月8日至5月9日均无逆回购到期。回顾"五一"节前资金面，央行 在"五一"节前连续多个工作日开展大规模逆回购操作，在节前最后一个工作日（4月30日）操作量由此 前两日的2000亿元、3000亿元加量至5308亿元，当日净投放量也高达4228亿元。 对于"五一"节后资金面，东方金诚首席宏观分析师王青在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示，节后资金 面向宽，央行利用大额逆回购到期实施资金净回笼，保持市场利率基本稳定，这是历年的季节性规律。 王青也认为，总体上看，与前期相比，未来一段时间市场流动性会处于相对宽松状态。主要原因是4月 初外部环境急 ...

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is maintaining liquidity in the banking system through various monetary policy tools, including a significant reverse repurchase operation in April, indicating a potential shift towards more accommodative monetary policy in the coming months [1][4]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In April, the PBOC conducted a reverse repurchase operation totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, with 700 billion yuan for 3-month terms and 500 billion yuan for 6-month terms [1][3]. - The net withdrawal from the 3-month reverse repo in April was 500 billion yuan, concluding a period of sustained liquidity release since October of the previous year [1][4]. - The reduction in the scale of reverse repo operations does not imply a tightening of market liquidity, as historical trends show a substitutive relationship between reserve requirement ratio cuts and medium-term lending facility (MLF) operations [1][4]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Significant reverse repo maturities are expected in May and June, with 900 billion yuan maturing in May and 5 trillion yuan and 1.4 trillion yuan maturing in June [4]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in reverse repo operations may signal a forthcoming reserve requirement ratio cut, aimed at injecting long-term liquidity into the market to support bank lending and economic growth [4][5]. - The issuance of special government bonds is set to accelerate in the second and third quarters, which may influence the timing of monetary policy easing [4][5]. Group 3: Government Bonds and Monetary Policy - Government bonds are anticipated to continue increasing in volume in the second quarter, supported by a more diversified liquidity supply through various monetary policy tools [5]. - The PBOC may resume government bond purchases and expand reverse repo operations or implement reserve requirement ratio cuts to ensure adequate liquidity for upcoming bond issuances [5].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted a buyout reverse repurchase operation of 1.2 trillion yuan in April to maintain ample liquidity in the banking system [1][3]. Group 1: Reverse Repo Operations - In April, the PBOC executed a buyout reverse repo operation totaling 1.2 trillion yuan, consisting of 700 billion yuan for 3-month (91 days) and 500 billion yuan for 6-month (182 days) [1][2]. - The net withdrawal from the 3-month buyout reverse repo in April was 500 billion yuan, following the maturity of 1.2 trillion yuan in 3-month and 500 billion yuan in 6-month buyout reverse repos [3]. Group 2: Future Expectations - Significant buyout reverse repos are set to mature in May and June, with 900 billion yuan for 3-month in late May and 5 billion yuan for 3-month and 1.4 trillion yuan for 6-month in late June [4]. - Analysts suggest that the reduction in April's buyout reverse repo may indicate a potential reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut to inject long-term liquidity into the market, thereby supporting bank lending capabilities and economic growth [4]. Group 3: Coordination with Fiscal Policy - The issuance of special government bonds is underway, with a focus on the second and third quarters, which may influence the timing of monetary policy easing [4]. - The PBOC's monetary policy is expected to work in tandem with fiscal measures, with the pace of bond issuance being a critical factor in assessing the window for monetary easing [4].

日报 | 2025-04-29 流动性日报 市场流动性概况 2025-04-28，股指板块成交3955.72亿元，较上一交易日变动-17.28%；持仓金额9128.70亿元，较上一交易日变动 -2.45%；成交持仓比为43.09%。 国债板块成交3075.44亿元，较上一交易日变动-23.38%；持仓金额9236.65亿元，较上一交易日变动+0.93%；成交 持仓比为33.86%。 基本金属板块成交2403.29亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.62%；持仓金额3558.17亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.51%；成 交持仓比为79.14%。 贵金属板块成交8325.41亿元，较上一交易日变动-10.38%；持仓金额4470.98亿元，较上一交易日变动-3.12%；成交 持仓比为148.96%。 能源化工板块成交4671.39亿元，较上一交易日变动+1.85%；持仓金额3320.36亿元，较上一交易日变动-1.07%；成 交持仓比为113.12%。 农产品板块成交3861.56亿元，较上一交易日变动-9.26%；持仓金额5269.41亿元，较上一交易日变动-2.90%；成交 持仓比为67.50%。 黑色建材板块成交29 ...

Group 1 - International gold prices experienced significant volatility this week, with fluctuations of nearly $100 during trading sessions, driven by heightened risk aversion amid trade tensions, pushing prices above $3500 at one point [1] - As of Friday, April 25, gold closed at $3318.62 per ounce, reflecting a decline of 0.93% [1] - The U.S. dollar faced pressure, dropping to a new low of 97.92, following criticism from Trump towards Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, but later rebounded above 99, struggling to break the 100 mark [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve indicated that commercial real estate prices, a concern post-COVID-19, are showing signs of stabilization despite low liquidity in the stock and bond markets in early April [2] - The U.S. banking system remains robust and resilient, with strong capital adequacy ratios across institutions, although there is an increase in credit commitments to less-regulated non-bank entities [2] - The Federal Reserve warned that hedge fund leverage, particularly among large institutions, has reached or is near historical highs, but noted a decrease in leverage as funds began to unwind positions in early April [2]

Core Insights - The latest Federal Reserve survey indicates that liquidity in the U.S. Treasury and stock markets is very low, and it has further deteriorated in April, although market operations remain orderly [1] Group 1 - The liquidity situation in the U.S. Treasury market is reported to be low, which may impact trading and investment strategies [1] - The stock market is also experiencing low liquidity, suggesting potential challenges for investors looking to enter or exit positions [1] - Despite the low liquidity levels, the overall market operations are described as remaining orderly, indicating some resilience in the market structure [1]

今日A股市场延续反弹态势，三大指数全线上涨，沪深两市成交额突破万亿大关，达10414亿元，较上 周五显著放量1267亿。其中，创业板指表现最为亮眼，涨幅达1.59%，深证成指紧随其后上涨1.27%， 沪指温和上涨0.45%，收报3291.43点。市场做多氛围明显回暖，赚钱效应显著提升。 货币政策宽松预期升温，市场流动性有望改善 银河证券认为，内外兼顾下，中国货币政策将在二季度从宽松的序曲渐进走向实质性宽松，配合财政政 策协同发力。4月中央政治局会议前后或将迎来降准，5月或6月有望实施降息。政策重心将转向促进经 济增长和充分就业，这将为A股市场注入新的流动性支持。货币政策工具的结构性调整，有望为市场带 来更多增量资金，提振投资者信心。 黄金板块领涨，避险需求持续升温 中信证券研报指出，特朗普关税政策出台引发的流动性危机是此前黄金价格大幅下行的原因。地缘政治 扰动催化全球央行及市场的黄金需求。特朗普政府后续的举动仍有极大不确定性，黄金价格仍可能波动 较大，但特朗普政府对美元体系的信用损伤是不可逆的，这将使得黄金的货币属性加强，价格中枢上 行。中性假设条件下预期2025年年中金价有望达到3337美元/盎司，在乐观和 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry but discusses expectations for the Treasury curve and market conditions, indicating a cautious outlook given rising recession risks and market volatility [3][6][24]. Core Insights - The report highlights a breakdown in the typical relationship between Treasury yields and risk assets during risk-off periods, with Treasuries exhibiting relative weakness despite broader risk-off sentiment [2][5]. - A significant factor contributing to the current market dynamics is the recalibration of fiscal risks, particularly in light of potential recession scenarios and legislative developments [10][23]. - The report emphasizes the fragility of the rates market, with deteriorating market depth and price impact measures, suggesting a need for close monitoring of funding conditions and Treasury auction performances [5][24][22]. Summary by Sections Market Dynamics - Recent volatility in the Treasury market is attributed to a mix of cyclical risks and shifts in the perceived supply/demand balance for Treasuries, exacerbated by positioning and thinner market liquidity [5][7]. - The current Treasury convenience yield has decreased sharply, indicating a relative cheapening of Treasuries compared to other forms of duration [10][14]. Economic Outlook - The report forecasts a steepening of the 2s10s Treasury curve towards 70 basis points by year-end, with historical precedents suggesting potential steepening above 100-150 basis points during prior recessions [3][6]. - The intersection of growth downside and inflation upside risks poses challenges for Treasuries' hedge value in portfolio settings, complicating the investment landscape [23][24]. Foreign Selling Concerns - While there are concerns about potential foreign selling of dollar assets, the report suggests that recent market movements do not clearly indicate this dynamic, with more focus on broader demand weakness [18][22]. - The report notes that shifts in the mix of reserve assets could pose medium-term risks for supply absorption, warranting attention to Treasury auction outcomes [22][24]. Portfolio Implications - The evolving role of Treasuries in investment portfolios is highlighted, with competing forces between growth and inflation impacting their value as a hedge [23][24]. - The report suggests that a sharp deterioration in market function could increase the likelihood of a Federal Reserve response to support market stability [24][26].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents the liquidity situation of various market sectors on March 31, 2025, including transaction volume, holding amount, and transaction - holding ratio, as well as their changes compared to the previous trading day [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Plate Liquidity - The report provides figures on the transaction - holding ratio, transaction amount change rate, holding volume, holding amount, trading volume, and transaction amount of each plate [7]. II. Stock Index Plate - On March 31, 2025, the stock index plate had a transaction volume of 6732.48 billion yuan, a 21.17% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 11321.33 billion yuan, a 6.60% increase; the transaction - holding ratio was 58.88% [1]. - There are figures showing the price change rate, transaction - holding ratio, precipitation capital change, precipitation capital trend, transaction amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the stock index plate [4][5]. III. Treasury Bond Plate - The treasury bond plate had a transaction volume of 3737.39 billion yuan, a 1.92% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 7535.77 billion yuan, a 1.21% increase; the transaction - holding ratio was 50.84% [1]. - There are figures showing the price change rate, transaction - holding ratio, precipitation capital change, precipitation capital trend, transaction amount change, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the treasury bond plate [4][6]. IV. Base Metals and Precious Metals (Metal Plate) - The base metals plate had a transaction volume of 3781.09 billion yuan, a 6.17% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4033.02 billion yuan, a 1.65% decrease; the transaction - holding ratio was 98.75%. The precious metals plate had a transaction volume of 5912.59 billion yuan, a 4.53% decrease; the holding amount was 3983.83 billion yuan, a 0.03% increase; the transaction - holding ratio was 138.89% [1]. - There are figures showing the price change rate, transaction - holding ratio, precipitation capital change amount, precipitation capital trend, transaction amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the metal plate [4][7]. V. Energy and Chemical Plate - The energy and chemical plate had a transaction volume of 4254.59 billion yuan, a 2.01% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 4179.09 billion yuan, a 1.73% decrease; the transaction - holding ratio was 78.67% [1]. - There are figures showing the price change rate, transaction - holding ratio, precipitation capital change amount, precipitation capital trend, transaction amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the energy and chemical plate [4][8]. VI. Agricultural Products Plate - The agricultural products plate had a transaction volume of 3926.01 billion yuan, an 8.70% decrease from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 5832.35 billion yuan, a 0.55% decrease; the transaction - holding ratio was 58.55% [1]. - There are figures showing the price change rate, transaction - holding ratio, precipitation capital change amount, precipitation capital trend, transaction amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of the main varieties in the agricultural products plate [4][9]. VII. Black Building Materials Plate - The black building materials plate had a transaction volume of 2337.29 billion yuan, a 13.12% increase from the previous trading day; the holding amount was 3619.53 billion yuan, a 0.26% decrease; the transaction - holding ratio was 69.09% [2]. - There are figures showing the price change rate, transaction - holding ratio, precipitation capital change amount, precipitation capital trend, transaction amount change rate, and the top 20 net holding ratio trend of each variety in the black building materials plate [4][10].

截至2 0 2 5年1月底，纽约证券交易所和纳斯达克的上市公司总市值超3 0万亿美元，远超全球其他 交易所。亚洲市场中上交所、日本证券交易所和印度国家证券交易所市值虽超5万亿美元，但仍 远低于美国交易所。从流动性来看，美股及深交所日均成交额均突破千亿美元，而东南亚部分市 场日均成交额不足1 0亿美元，反映出部分亚洲新兴市场的流动性仍较有限。回顾过去五年全球市 场规模和流动性表现，全球上市公司数量保持稳定，发达市场增长放缓，而中国和印度等新兴市 场成为推动增长的主要力量。美股市场仍然主导全球股票市值和流动性，纳斯达克和纽约证券交 易所的市值持续上升，受益于科技股上涨和流动性回暖。与此同时，中国大陆和印度市场的市值 与交易活跃度稳步提升，特别是深圳证券交易所成交量在2 0 2 4年底大幅攀升，显示出市场活跃度 的增强。相比之下，日本、中国香港、新加坡等成熟市场虽保持稳定，但整体增长动能有限。未 来，全球资本市场格局可能进一步调整，投资者对新兴市场的关注度或将持续上升。 文 ｜ 杨宇泽 顾晟曦 车宇璇 赵文荣 刘方 本报告聚焦全球股票市场的运行特征与结构变化，提供定量跟踪与横向比较，供投资者参考。基于 最新数据，报 ...