Group 1: Core Logic Supporting Gold Prices - The increasing fiscal situation in the U.S. is a fundamental factor supporting gold prices, with the potential addition of $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade due to the "Build Back Better" plan, and a debt ceiling increase of $5 trillion, exacerbating the current $36.2 trillion debt level [3][6] - The dual accumulation of fiscal and political risks has triggered a global capital reallocation, influenced by the rising political atmosphere following Musk's announcement of forming the "American Party" [3][6] Group 2: Trade Frictions and Policy Volatility - Trump's trade policies, including a recent 50% tariff on copper imports, have stirred market sentiment and raised concerns about global economic slowdown, leading to increased inflows of safe-haven funds into the gold market [7][9] - The uncertainty in trade policies is impacting consumer confidence and business investment, prompting a reallocation of global capital away from U.S. assets towards gold as an alternative safe-haven [9] Group 3: Federal Reserve Policies and Interest Rate Dynamics - The traditional inverse relationship between interest rates and gold prices is being restructured, as gold prices have risen despite actual U.S. interest rates exceeding 2% [10][13] - Market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's potential shift in policy, including possible interest rate cuts due to inflation concerns, are contributing to the current dynamics where both gold and interest rates may rise simultaneously [10][13] Group 4: Central Bank Gold Purchases and Market Structure - Continuous gold purchases by central banks, particularly in emerging markets, are becoming a significant support for gold prices, driven by motives such as diversification of foreign exchange reserves and hedging against geopolitical risks [13] - The shift in demand from private investors to official institutions marks a structural change in the gold market, reflecting a trend of "de-dollarization" in response to U.S. fiscal deficits [13] Group 5: Short-term Volatility and Long-term Trends - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are influenced by technical and sentiment factors, with current prices nearing key resistance levels around $3,335 per ounce [14] - Long-term drivers for gold remain rooted in structural uncertainties in the global economy and politics, including ongoing U.S. fiscal deficits and fluctuating trade policies, reinforcing gold's role as a "backup safe-haven asset" [17]

在全球金融市场聚焦于美国与其贸易伙伴之间不断升温的谈判局势之际，黄金价格在周三表现出罕见的 韧性。尽管美元指数持续高企，给贵金属市场带来抑制作用，但黄金仍小幅走高，现货金交投于每盎司 3318美元附近，反映出避险资金仍在悄然流入。这种表现不禁引发一个疑问：美元强势的背景下，黄金 缘何没有进一步下挫？ DLSMARKETS从当前局势看，黄金之所以没有被美元的压力完全压制，背后是多重情绪交织的结果。 一方面，美国总统特朗普再度向七个主要贸易伙伴发出关税信函，强化"8月1日关税生效"这一时间表， 使得全球贸易紧张氛围再度升温。尽管市场已部分"习惯"其反复横跳的谈判策略，但多国表态强硬，尤 其是巴西明确提出将依据本国法律对美关税行为进行报复，贸易摩擦的反复和加剧始终为避险情绪提供 支撑。此时，即便美元走强，黄金作为对冲工具的吸引力也并未完全丧失。 另一方面，美联储会议纪要虽未明确释放降息信号，但从措辞来看，仍保留了政策灵活性的空间。特别 是在关税政策或对中长期通胀构成扰动的背景下，部分官员已提出预期内的风险情景，这使得市场对未 来政策路径的分歧再度扩大。不少资金因此更愿意通过增配黄金来防范政策误判或滞后所带来的资产波 ...

Group 1 - The company's stock closed at 26.71 yuan, up 2.85%, with a rolling PE ratio of 130.33, marking a new low in 12 days, and a total market value of 9.425 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the software development industry is 117.72, with a median of 85.00, placing the company at 153rd in the industry ranking [1] - As of June 30, 2025, the company had 24,754 shareholders, an increase of 2,044 from the previous count, with an average holding value of 352,800 yuan and an average holding of 27,600 shares per shareholder [1] Group 2 - In the first quarter of 2025, the company reported revenue of 86.5372 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.20%, and a net loss of approximately 45.735 million yuan, a year-on-year decline of 235.94%, with a gross profit margin of 47.22% [2] - The company holds 4 invention patents and 23 software copyright registrations, and has obtained various certifications, maintaining a technological lead in the industry [1] - The company participated in the 2024 National Smart Medical Insurance Competition, winning third place for its application based on blockchain and privacy computing for medical insurance data security, and received an excellence award for its blockchain application case for national medical insurance electronic invoices [1]

本报告来源于"慧博投研",请勿外传! 宏观经济|专题报告 "大美丽法案"市场冲击或有限 海外机记 20250707 研究结论 风险提示 经济基本面不确定性。政策不确定性。地缘政治形势走向的不确定性。 | | Alley John A | | --- | --- | | 20250707 | 王仲尧 | | 证券分析师 | | | --- | --- | | 王仲尧 | 021-63325888*3267 | | | wangzhongvao1@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号: S0860518050001 | | | 香港证监会跑昭:BQJ932 | | 吴泽青 | wuzeging@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号:S0860524100001 | | 孙舍霞 | 021-63325888*7590 | | | sunjinxia@orientsec.com.cn | | | 执业证书编号: S0860515070001 | | 曹靖俯 | 021-63325888*3046 | | | caojingnan@orientsec.com.cn | | | ...

Core Insights - Johannesburg is set to host the G20 summit in November 2025, marking the first time an African nation will lead this event, enhancing its global city status [1] - The 2024/25 Integrated Development Plan (IDP) outlines 11 strategic priorities aimed at transforming Johannesburg into a world-class African city by 2040 [1][3] Strategic Priorities - **Fiscal Sustainability**: Ensuring long-term financial stability to provide essential services and fund key initiatives [3][5] - **Sustainable Energy Structure**: Diversifying energy sources and investing in renewable energy and energy efficiency technologies [6] - **Infrastructure Development and Renewal**: Addressing spatial imbalances and enhancing urban planning to improve living conditions [7] - **Sustainable Service Provision**: Aiming for high-quality services for all residents while addressing challenges in infrastructure and resource management [8] - **Good Governance**: Fostering effective administration, accountability, and citizen participation in governance [9] - **Job Creation**: Establishing urban development zones and public works programs to combat unemployment [11] - **Safety in the City**: Enhancing security measures to protect citizens from crime and natural disasters [12] - **Active Citizenship**: Encouraging citizen involvement in urban planning and decision-making processes [13] - **Economic Growth**: Focusing on targeted interventions to address unemployment, poverty, and inequality [14] - **Green Economy**: Implementing environmental policies to balance development needs with ecological preservation [15] - **Smart City Initiatives**: Utilizing technology to improve urban services, governance, and overall city resilience [16][17] Recommendations for Chinese Cities - Strengthening stakeholder participation in urban planning processes to enhance collaborative efforts [18] - Developing international relations planning to boost regional and global leadership roles [19] - Increasing cooperation with global southern cities in development planning to foster sustainable urban growth [21][22]

M&G Investments政府债券和宏观固定收益投资经理Robert Burrows表示，市场再度沉浸在"希望"之中。 尽管劳动力市场依旧强劲，通胀持续黏性，经济也未见明显疲软，但市场对降息的押注却卷土重来。美 联储可能仍在强调"高利率维持更久"，但投资者却似乎不以为然。 为什么在数据指向不同方向时，市场仍如此确信降息即将到来？Burrows表示，从基础数据来看，美国 经济仍在"反重力"运行： 尽管关税已大幅下调，但净有效关税已从约2%增至12%，其影响尚未完全显现。 然而，期货市场仍在推测到2026年底可能降息150个基点。有的投资者可能会因此认为衰退迫在眉睫， 但数据根本不支持这一点。目前没有明确且紧迫的危险需要立即放松货币政策。似乎市场中正在出现一 种不对称现象。 需要指出的是，关税这一巨大变化的影响将同时作用于未来的通胀和经济增长，使情况更加复杂，也让 美联储的工作更具挑战性。 上，一些有希望的候选人已经在"擦亮"他们的简历，并呼吁降息，尽管数据并不支持，这无疑提 升了他们在特朗普眼中的地位。 尽管美联储在理论上保持独立，但经济现实正将其逼入困境。当通胀是"罪魁祸首"时，加息在政治上是 可行的，但 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/07/10 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/07/03 110 1459 81550 24103 -1000.59 26.46 30.0 49.0 87.61 94325 31900 2025/07/04 105 1223 84589 22307 -974.44 138.45 30.0 52.0 95.35 95275 33950 2025/07/07 100 1001 84589 21682 -1002.36 174.64 29.0 63.0 79.80 97400 36875 2025/07/08 80 1048 84589 19109 -844.96 44.77 29.0 63.0 51.31 102500 37100 2025/07/09 60 502 84589 21336 -437.33 412.81 40.0 65.0 22.37 107125 38250 变化 -20 -546 0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The World Gold Council analysts believe that gold prices will benefit from the soaring U.S. deficit and increasing fiscal instability, even in the absence of short-term crises [2] Group 1: Economic and Fiscal Factors - The passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill is expected to add $3.4 trillion in debt over the next decade unless the Trump administration meets its growth forecasts, raising the debt ceiling by $5 trillion [2] - Political tensions, particularly Elon Musk's threat to form the "American Party," are contributing to accumulating fiscal and political risks [2] - Global capital is being reallocated due to these uncertainties, with a weakening dollar driving up gold prices and U.S. Treasury yields [2][5] Group 2: Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics - Investors are increasingly turning to gold as a safe haven due to rising fiscal concerns, despite the traditional view that rising interest rates hinder gold prices [2][7] - Since 2022, other factors have rebalanced the inverse correlation between interest rates and gold prices, with gold prices rising even when real interest rates exceed 2% [2] - Central bank purchases, particularly from emerging market central banks, have become a significant factor in the strengthening of gold prices [2] Group 3: Long-term Implications - The long-standing fiscal issues have been a crucial support for the gold market, especially as the gap between U.S. Treasury yields and fixed-rate swaps widens, indicating increased market sensitivity to U.S. fiscal problems [5] - Although the World Gold Council does not foresee a full-blown fiscal crisis in the U.S., a series of smaller crises could arise due to debt ceiling issues or defaults, increasing market instability and demand for gold as a safe haven [5][6] - Analysts warn that if leaders appear to weaken their commitment to long-term fiscal discipline, the bond market's reaction could be swift and severe [6]

Group 1: Legislative Overview - The "Great Beauty Act" was passed by the U.S. House of Representatives with a narrow margin of 218 votes in favor and 214 against, and was signed into law by Trump on July 4, 2025[6] - The act is expected to increase the deficit by approximately $4.1 trillion over the next ten years, with tax cuts of about $4.5 trillion and spending cuts of around $1.4 trillion[12][13] Group 2: Market Impact - The market impact of the "Great Beauty Act" is expected to be limited in the short term, as the bond market has already priced in the information over the past two months[6] - The upcoming debt issuance is likely to be managed through short-term bonds, which will not significantly affect long-term bond supply and demand[6][18] Group 3: Economic Projections - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB) predict that the deficit rate will rise to between 6.4% and 7.1% over the next five fiscal years due to the act[29][28] - Neutral institutions expect the act to contribute an additional economic growth of between -0.1% and 1.1% over the next ten years, indicating a very mild upward impact on the economy[22][23] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The act is likely to force the market to reassess the "new normal" of the U.S. fiscal cycle, leading to a higher central pricing for long-term U.S. Treasury yields[27] - The current 10-year Treasury yield is estimated to be around 4.1%, which is above its fair value, suggesting that the yield may continue to rise in the short term[38][41]

光大期货金融期货日报（2025 年 07 月 10 日） 光大期货金融期货日报 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 昨日，A 股市场震荡收跌，Wind 全 A 下跌 0.18%，成交额 1.53 万亿元。中 | | | | 证 1000 指数下跌 0.27%，中证 500 指数下跌 0.41%，沪深 300 指数下跌 | | | | 0.18%，上证 50 指数下跌 0.26%。传媒板块领涨，有色金属回调，板块轮动 | | | | 继续。近期中央财经委召开第六次会议，强调："纵深推进全国统一大市场建 | | | | 设，基本要求是"五统一、一开放"。市场对于反内卷背景下企业盈利回升和 | | | | 通胀企稳的预期颇高，但与 2016 年供给侧改个不同的是，本轮"反内卷"政 | | | | 2016 策并未配套类似于 年的增量财政政策，未来对相关题材的影响还需参 | | | 股指 | 考中央财政增量政策的转导方式和规模。海外方面，"非农"强劲背景下美联 | 震荡 | | | 储降息预期稍缓，国内小盘指数受到的提振明显减弱，未来需继续关注美国 | | ...