格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 10 日星期二 Morning session notice 早盘提示 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 属市场暴跌。交易员将沃什视为最终候选人中最坚定的通胀抗击者，这提高了对美 元构成支撑、削弱以美元计价黄金的货币政策预期。我们认为美国总统提名美联储 前理事沃什担任美联储主席仅仅是导火索，重要的是市场之前的连续大涨积累了大 量的获利盘，市场变得十分拥挤，而导火索则引发了获利回吐，并发生连锁反应， 引起了市场的踩踏。美国 12 月 JOLTs 职位空缺录得 654.2 万人，为 2020 年 9 月以 来新低。密歇根大学消费者信心调查：美国 1 年期通胀预期从 4%降至 13 个月低点 3.5%。美国的最新就业和通胀预期数据有利于推动降息。2 月 9 日美元指数收跌 0.78%，报 96.85。伊朗地缘风险持续发酵。2 月 9 日 COMEX 黄金在 5000 美元/盎司 上方窄幅波动、小幅上涨，COMEX 白银涨幅较大收盘站上 83 美元/盎司。金银暂时 未形成新的趋势方向。作为春节假期安排，上期所宣布自 2026 年 2 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Treasury futures prices generally rose, and the 10-year treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.795%. The central bank's open market reverse repurchase had a net injection of 38 billion yuan, and the short - end Shibor varieties mostly rose, but the overnight interest rate was below 1.3%. The central bank continued to expand the scale of open - market treasury bond trading operations, and the capital market remained loose before the Spring Festival. - After three consecutive 25 - basis - point interest rate cuts, the Fed paused. The market expects the new - nominated Fed chairman's monetary policy to be a unique combination of "interest rate cuts and balance - sheet reduction". The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3, the highest in six months, and US Treasury yields rebounded. - In January, the three major manufacturing PMIs showed a seasonal decline. In December, the profits of industrial enterprises above a designated size increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and the annual fixed - asset investment decreased by 3.8% year - on - year, mainly dragged down by the decline in real estate development investment. The real estate market is still in adjustment. - The Ministry of Finance said that in 2026, the fiscal deficit and total expenditure will remain at a necessary level. The central bank pointed out that in 2026, it will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, and there is still some room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The market capital is loose, and treasury futures prices continue to stabilize. It is recommended to operate cautiously before the festival [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: The prices of treasury futures generally rose. For example, the T2603 contract rose 0.06%. The trading volume and open interest of different contracts changed. For instance, the open interest of TS2603 decreased by 3,008, while that of TS2606 increased by 4,514 [2]. - **Arbitrage**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main treasury futures contracts was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate rose 7bp, DR007 interest rate rose 4.61bp, and GC007 interest rate rose 3.7bp [2]. - **China's Key - term Treasury Yields**: The yields of key - term treasury bonds generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 0.46bp to 1.81%, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 34.38bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Yields**: The US 10Y Treasury yield remained unchanged, the German 10Y Treasury yield rose 3bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury yield rose 5.3bp. The internal - external yield spreads also changed accordingly [2]. Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: On February 9, the central bank carried out 113 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 38 billion yuan [3]. - **Policy Adjustments**: The Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock exchanges optimized a package of refinancing measures, focusing on high - quality listed companies and the science and technology innovation field. The Ministry of Finance and other three departments extended the tax - preferential policy for returned cross - border e - commerce export goods for two years until the end of 2027 [3]. - **Economic Data and Expectations**: The preliminary reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in February reached 57.3. The US employment growth data is expected to slow down, and the market expects about 70,000 new jobs in the January non - farm payroll report [3].

近期全球金融市场呈现明显分化态势，道琼斯工业平均指数创下历史新高，黄金、白银等贵金属价格则 出现跳水波动，与此同时，美联储多位官员接连发声，就货币政策、劳动力市场及美元走势等核心议题 表态，引发全球投资者广泛关注。 在此背景下，美联储多位官员接连重磅发声，释放出关键货币政策信号。当地时间2月6日，旧金山联储 主席玛丽·戴利表示，为应对美国劳动力市场的疲软状况，美联储今年可能还需要进行1次或2次降息操 作。她指出，当前美国劳动者面临物价上涨侵蚀工资、新增就业机会稀缺的困境，若劳动力市场持续疲 软，实施进一步货币宽松政策将是合理选择，同时警告企业若需求不及预期，可能出现更多裁员现象。 美东时间2月9日，美联储多位官员进一步补充表态。美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰表示，特朗普政府的关税 政策对美国经济影响相当有限，且关税收入有助于改善政府财政长期前景，反驳了"关税由美国民众承 担"的普遍观点。针对当日美元指数大跌0.84%、跌破97关口的走势，米兰称，当前美元下跌幅度尚未 对货币政策产生实质性影响，对消费者通胀的影响也较为温和。同日，亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克则表 示，他已开始看到人们对美元的信心产生质疑，而就业数据的波动不 ...

Core Viewpoint - The financial data for January is expected to show a significant increase in new RMB loans and social financing compared to the previous month, with experts predicting a stable outlook for credit and social financing growth in the near term [1][3]. Group 1: Predictions for January Financial Data - Experts anticipate that new RMB loans in January could reach approximately 5 trillion yuan, representing a month-on-month increase of about 4 trillion yuan, although this would be a decrease of around 1 billion yuan compared to the same month last year [1][3]. - The new social financing is projected to be around 7 trillion yuan, with some analysts estimating it could be as high as 7.5 trillion yuan, indicating a year-on-year increase [2][4]. - The bond financing is expected to play a significant role in supporting the new social financing figures, with a notable year-on-year increase anticipated [2][4]. Group 2: Trends in Monetary Policy - The growth rates for various loans, social financing, and M2 (broad money) are expected to slightly decline but will remain significantly above the nominal GDP growth rate, reflecting a continued supportive stance in monetary policy [2][4]. - Future monetary policy adjustments may include a reduction in reserve requirements by 25 to 50 basis points and a potential interest rate cut of 10 basis points, with a focus on structural monetary policy tools to support sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [2][4].

美联储理事米兰表示，美元需要出现比目前更大幅度的下跌，才会成为影响消费者通胀的首要因素。 "必须要有非常大幅的波动，才会真正成为影响美国消费者通胀的首要问题，"米兰周一表示，"因此， 美元走势对消费者通胀的影响并没有那么大。" 在谈及美元走弱时，米兰称，到目前为止，他并不认为 这会对货币政策产生实质性影响。 美元指数在过去52周内下跌了7.7%。 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 美联储理事米兰：货币政策应与商业周期相匹配。 ...

Group 1 - The financial data for January is expected to show a significant increase in new RMB loans and social financing compared to December, with estimates suggesting new loans could reach 5 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 4 trillion yuan month-on-month, but a decrease of about 100 billion yuan year-on-year [1] - Analysts predict that the new social financing in January will be around 7 trillion yuan, with bond financing expected to be a major support factor, indicating a stable overall performance in credit and social financing [2] - The growth rates of various loan balances, social financing, and M2 (broad money) are anticipated to slightly decline, yet remain significantly above the nominal GDP growth rate, reflecting a continued supportive monetary policy stance [2] Group 2 - The chief economist at Zheshang Securities forecasts a potential reduction in reserve requirement ratios by 25 to 50 basis points and a 10 basis point interest rate cut in 2026, alongside ongoing structural monetary policy tools aimed at supporting sectors like technology innovation and small to medium enterprises [2]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is showing signs of stabilization and recovery after experiencing significant volatility, with gold maintaining strong support around the $5,000 mark despite recent profit-taking and reduced safe-haven demand [1][2]. Market Performance - Spot gold reached a high of $5,046.79 per ounce, reflecting a rise of approximately 0.7%, indicating a reassessment of the value of metal assets by market participants after short-term panic subsides [1][2]. - Silver rebounded from a low near $60 per ounce, showing an active performance with a gain of 3.3%, priced at $80.5330 per ounce, while platinum experienced a decline of 2.3% to $2,068.45 per ounce, highlighting differences in liquidity demand among various metal types [2][3]. Economic Indicators - The focus of the global market has shifted to the upcoming non-farm payroll data and CPI inflation indicators, which will directly influence the Federal Reserve's future interest rate path, especially given the complexities introduced by the nomination of Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair [3]. - The potential policy stance of Warsh briefly boosted the dollar and triggered profit-taking in the precious metals market, but such expectation-driven volatility may provide more cost-effective entry points for long-term holders [3]. Year-to-Date Trends - Year-to-date, gold and silver have recorded gains of 15% and 5% respectively, although there has been a pullback from February's historical highs, the overall upward trend remains intact [4]. - Precious metals continue to hold a solid position as core tools for inflation hedging and asset preservation amid intertwined policy uncertainties and macroeconomic fluctuations, with investors advised to be cautious of the dollar's short-term price pressures [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pressure on cross - Spring Festival funds is controllable. The overall liquidity in February is expected to remain stable, with the risk of significant fluctuations being under control, although attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [4][71]. - In January, the central bank actively adjusted monetary policy tools. It cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools, and there is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year. The central bank also increased the scale of bond purchases to maintain liquidity [3][52]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 1 - Month Review of the Capital Market and Liquidity 3.1.1 Capital Market Review - In January 2026, the overnight capital fluctuated in a slightly wider range compared to the previous month, showing an oscillatory upward trend with a fluctuation range of 0.18%. The 7D capital fluctuated in a narrower range and basically remained stable around 1.5%. There was no inversion between overnight and 7D funds [10]. - At the beginning of the month, the central bank significantly withdrew cross - year funds, and the capital operation was generally stable and loose. In the middle of the month, due to the maturity of the 6M reverse repurchase and the freezing of funds for new stock subscriptions on the Beijing Stock Exchange, there was a brief friction in the capital market. Later, with the net injection of funds, the liquidity gradually stabilized. Towards the end of the month, the pressure on capital increase was relatively controllable [2][11]. - The capital stratification pressure in January was at a seasonally low level. The spread between R007 and DR007 decreased, and the spread between GC007 and DR007 also compressed, both at seasonally low levels [16]. - The volatility of overnight and 7D funds was at a seasonally low level, and the daily average trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase increased slightly compared to the previous month [23][24]. - Banks' net lending scale remained relatively high, and the net lending scale of money market funds first increased and then decreased [30]. 3.1.2 Liquidity Review - **Liquidity Aggregate**: In January, the base money increased by 1.6 billion yuan. The government deposit consumed about 1.1 trillion yuan of the base money, the central bank's net injection was 1.19 trillion yuan, and the foreign exchange funds continued to be slightly withdrawn by 7 billion yuan. After considering factors such as reserve freezing, cash withdrawal, and changes in non - financial institution deposits, the excess reserve at the end of the month decreased by about 692 billion yuan, and the excess reserve ratio was about 1.3%, which was seasonally high. The narrow - sense excess reserve level after deducting reverse repurchases was about 0.7%, close to the seasonal level [33]. - **Open - Market Operations**: In January, the central bank slightly withdrew short - term reverse repurchases in the open market, with a net injection of - 3.22 billion yuan. The MLF was injected with 90 billion yuan and 20 billion yuan matured, with a balance of 6.95 trillion yuan. The 3M and 6M outright reverse repurchases had a net injection of 30 billion yuan in total. The central bank also increased its net purchase of national debt by 10 billion yuan and carried out operations such as treasury time deposits and PSL [39][44]. 3.2 1 - Month Monetary Policy Tracking - In January 2026, the central bank cut the interest rates of various structural monetary policy tools by 25bp. There is still room for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, as the exchange rate and net interest margin constraints have eased [3][52]. - The central bank continued its liquidity - caring approach, injecting 1 trillion yuan of medium - term liquidity through MLF and outright reverse repurchases. In January, the central bank increased its bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan [3][52]. - The central bank may further create tools to provide liquidity support for non - bank institutions, and may refer to the SRF and some phased tools. It also promotes the interconnection of financial markets and supports the construction of the offshore RMB market [55]. 3.3 2 - Month Gap Prediction 3.3.1 Rigid Gap - In February, as it is a month with relatively less deposit growth, the increase in general deposits will consume about 3.45 billion yuan of excess reserves. The MLF maturity is 30 billion yuan, and the outright reverse repurchase maturity is 1.2 trillion yuan (70 billion yuan for 3M and 50 billion yuan for 6M), with 80 billion yuan of the 3M outright reverse repurchase being renewed [58]. 3.3.2 Exogenous Shocks - Due to the late Spring Festival this year, cash withdrawal and non - financial institution deposits will slightly consume excess reserves in February. The "currency issuance" item may consume about 1.2 trillion yuan of excess reserves, and non - financial institution deposits may consume about 9.65 billion yuan [62]. 3.3.3 Fiscal Factors - The government deposit may consume about 44.34 billion yuan of liquidity in February. Considering factors such as bond payment, tax revenue, and fiscal expenditure, the government bond issuance is relatively large this month [67]. 3.3.4 Comprehensive Judgment - The overall capital gap pressure in February is similar to that in January, mainly coming from the pressure of cash withdrawal before the Spring Festival and government bond payment. However, considering the current liquidity status of the banking system and the central bank's operation idea of maintaining sufficient liquidity, the cross - year funds are expected to remain stable, and the risk of significant fluctuations is controllable [70][71]. - Since January, the central bank has actively operated monetary policy tools, with an incremental injection of 1 trillion yuan through MLF and 6M outright reverse repurchases, and an increase in the bond - buying scale to 10 billion yuan. The 14D reverse repurchase was launched earlier before the Spring Festival, and the cross - Spring Festival pressure is controllable. However, the progress of cross - Spring Festival funds in the inter - bank market is relatively slow, and attention should be paid to the capital arrangements of institutions in the last week before the festival and potential capital disturbances [5][73].

流动性跟踪与地方债策略专题 供给高峰平稳落地，关注超长地方债品种利差压缩机会 glmszqdatemark 货币政策与流动性观点：春节将至，央行已经提供较多中期流动性呵护资金面， 供给冲击下资金面非常宽松，本周资金面扰动因素较上周较多，一方面政府债净 缴款上升至 6437 亿元、考虑调休后同业存单到期规模上升至 9719 亿元，另一 方面春节取现需求可能集中释放。得益于央行前期的买断式、MLF、国债买卖操 作，年初以来累计净投放 1.2 万亿元中长期资金，银行体系资金融出状况也不错， 预计资金面能够平稳过节。上周存单有再融资优势，因此利率继续低位运行，本 周开始关注提价情况。 地方债观点：受春节影响，2 月政府债供给节奏前置明显，春节前地方债总发行 9018 亿元，超过 1 月实际发行规模。预计截至 2 月 15 日，地方债累计发行 17652 亿元，其中超长地方债发行 9421 亿元，占比为 53%；置换债发行 5899 亿元 （2025 年同期 3781 亿元），对 7Y、10Y 置换债供给大幅增加。目前发行计划调 整后 2-3 月计划分别为 8149 亿元和 9609 亿元，预计 2 月实际供给在 1 ...