★倒计时最后2天｜见闻11.11活动，全场会员产品全年最低价！点击链接详情>> 数据真空状态直接影响政策清晰度。KPMG首席经济学家Diane Swonk表示，数据不确定性是美联储对调整货币政策"感到有些紧张"的众多原因之一。 对于市场高度关注的数据发布时间表，摩根士丹利的首席经济学家Michael Gapen预测，10月和11月的就业报告或能在12月8日发布，正好赶在美联储会前。 他同时提醒，本次停摆时长是2013年的两倍多，历史经验的参考价值有限。 这场自10月1日开始的史上最长政府停摆，已严重影响了多个月份的经济数据发布。 数据"迷雾"笼罩决策，联储或更趋谨慎 即便美国政府停摆僵局有望本周结束，但其造成的经济数据"黑洞"短期内难以填补，或将导致美联储在缺乏关键指引的情况下，步入12月的议息会议。 当前，市场普遍预期，一旦政府重新开门，积压的9月份经济报告将很快发布，但更关键的10月和11月数据正面临严重延误。 据经济学家预计，政府恢复运作后，被推迟的9月就业报告可能在三天内发布。EY-Parthenon的首席经济学家Gregory Daco指出，该报告在停摆前已"基本就 绪"。 然而，由于停摆阻碍了10 ...

We have some news in Washington that we may be getting close to the end of the shutdown, which would release data. But just in case that doesn't happen. Based on what you know now, what do you think about the economy.Mike, good morning. Great to be here. I see an economy that is has been pretty resilient, where growth has been roughly around potential around 1.8% for four this year in spite of a lot of uncertainty. I see a labor market that has been around full employment is around, full employment with has ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, breaking through $4,070 per ounce, is driven by a combination of macroeconomic expectations, global risks, and long-term institutional buying, rather than mere speculative trading [1][2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. economy is showing signs of weakness, leading investors to anticipate a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve early next year, which benefits gold in a low-interest-rate environment [2][4]. - Inflation in the U.S. is declining, and economic slowdown is prompting a shift in investor sentiment towards gold as a safe haven asset [4][7]. Group 2: Global Risks - Ongoing geopolitical tensions and increased volatility in European and American markets are causing capital to flow out of high-risk assets and into safer investments like gold [5][7]. - The rise in gold prices reflects growing global market concerns about economic stagnation, weak consumer confidence, and pressured corporate earnings [7][12]. Group 3: Institutional Buying - Central banks and institutional investors are significantly increasing their gold holdings, with the World Gold Council reporting record net purchases by official sectors this year [6][10]. - The trend indicates a structural return to gold as a long-term investment, moving beyond short-term speculation [7][10]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - The weakening U.S. dollar enhances gold's appeal, making it cheaper for investors using other currencies, thus contributing to rising demand [7][12]. - The breakout above the $4,000 resistance level suggests a new pricing phase for gold, indicating a shift in market dynamics [7]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - High gold prices are increasing jewelry prices but are also stimulating demand in certain regions, such as China, where initiatives like "old-for-new" and investment in gold bars are gaining popularity [11]. Group 6: Macro Implications - The sustained rise in gold prices signals heightened global risk concerns and reflects a shift in the global economic landscape, indicating a potential preparation for a new economic cycle [12].

Economic Overview - The economy has shown resilience with growth around 1.8% this year despite uncertainties [2] - The labor market is near full employment but has shown signs of cooling, with demand and supply also cooling [2][5] - Inflation is closer to 3% rather than the 2% target, indicating ongoing price pressures [2][21] Consumer Behavior - Consumption remains resilient, particularly among higher-income households benefiting from stock market wealth effects [6][7] - Lower-income households are increasing their debt levels, particularly credit card debt, to maintain consumption [7][8] - Consumer balance sheets are generally stable, but there are concerns about subprime loan defaults and credit card defaults stabilizing after a previous increase [8][9] Business Sentiment - Companies report that uncertainty has plateaued, allowing them to adapt to a higher level of uncertainty [11] - Some companies are experiencing higher costs related to various factors, including insurance and raw materials, which they are attempting to pass on to consumers [11][20] - There is a concern among companies about the potential need to raise prices or cut employees if interest rates do not decrease [10][20] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market has cooled in an orderly manner, with recent layoff announcements not necessarily indicating a deterioration phase [13][14] - Weekly claims for unemployment have remained stable, suggesting that the labor market is not in immediate distress [14][15] - There is a need to monitor the balance between labor market conditions and inflationary pressures when considering monetary policy [19][24] Monetary Policy Considerations - The real federal funds rate has declined by 250 basis points over the past year, with a focus on supporting the labor market and managing inflation expectations [18][19] - Companies are more concerned about non-interest costs rather than interest costs impacting their pricing strategies [20] - The current monetary policy stance is viewed as modestly restrictive to neutral, with a focus on bringing inflation back towards the 2% target [25][26] Financial Stability - Financial conditions are described as accommodative, with asset valuations, including house and stock prices, appearing elevated relative to historical standards [28][29] - The Federal Reserve's financial stability report indicates notable asset valuations, which could pose risks if not managed carefully [28][29]

戴利当天早些时候在一篇博客文章中也阐述了对未来货币政策方向的看法。她表示，美联储今年已累计 降息50个基点，但是否需要进一步降息仍需保持"开放心态"，并仔细权衡双方证据。她未明确表示12月 会议的政策倾向。 由于美国政府关门导致统计数据发布中断，美联储官员目前对经济运行的判断受限。即便数据发布恢 复，12月10日的政策会议也将面对信息不足的局面。 在这种背景下，戴利分析称，工资增速降温反映出需求正在降温，属于"负向需求冲击"；而通胀虽然仍 高于目标，但总体受控，并未因进口关税而广泛上升。 她还将当前形势与历史进行比较，指出1970年代的特点是通胀根深蒂固，而1990年代则得益于生产率提 升和美联储的平衡策略。"我们不能忽视1970年代或疫情后的通胀上行，但也不能忽略历史上其他阶 段，"她说，"我们不能为了避免重蹈70年代的覆辙，而牺牲90年代那种增长与就业并存的可能，这只是 用一种错误换另一种错误。" 智通财经APP获悉，美国旧金山联储主席戴利表示，美国经济可能正经历需求下滑，而关税相关的通胀 压力目前仍受控。她警告称，美联储若长时间维持过高利率，可能会对经济造成伤害。 戴利周一在接受采访时表示："如果仔细分 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View of the Report The current freight rate market is greatly influenced by news, and the futures price is expected to fluctuate more intensely. It is recommended that investors be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and timely track geopolitical, shipping capacity, and cargo volume data [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1778.200, down 33.3; EC secondary main contract closing price: 1604.9, up 17.70 [1] - EC2512 - EC2602 spread: 173.30, down 46.70; EC2512 - EC2604 spread: 612.10, down 35.30 [1] - SCFIS (European Line) (weekly): 1504.80, up 296.09; SCFIS (US West Line) (weekly): 1327.91, up 62.56 [1] - SCFI (Comprehensive Index) (weekly): 1058.17, up 36.78; CCFI (European Line) (weekly): 1366.85, up 43.04 [1] - Baltic Dry Bulk Index (daily): 2104.00, down 41.00; Panama - type Freight Index (daily): 1833.00, down 16.00 [1] - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 17564.00, unchanged; Average charter price (Cape - size ship): 28850.00, up 2368.00 [1] Industry News - China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs announced to suspend the implementation of multiple export control measures from November 10, 2025, to November 10, 2026, covering super - hard materials, some rare - earth equipment and raw materials, lithium batteries, etc. Also, since November 10, the soybean export qualification of 3 US enterprises to China has been restored, and the import of US logs has resumed [1] - US Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer proposed a new plan to end the government shutdown, but the Republicans rejected it, though the exchange of proposals is seen as a sign of a possible loosening of the negotiation deadlock [1] - Fed Vice - Chair Jefferson said the Fed should be more cautious in future policy actions. New York Fed President Williams said the Fed may need to expand its balance sheet by buying bonds, and St. Louis Fed President Musalem expects 50 - 75 basis points of policy adjustment space [1] Market Analysis - On Monday, the prices of the container shipping index (European Line) futures showed differentiation. The main contract EC2512 fell 1.81%, and the far - month contracts had varying declines [1] - The latest SCFIS European Line settlement freight rate index rose 24.5% week - on - week, which is expected to support the recovery of freight rates. However, China's manufacturing PMI in October dropped seasonally, and the new export order index declined significantly, indicating a weak foundation for the recovery of terminal transport demand [1] - Mainstream shipping companies issued price - increase notices in November, but the price increase in late November has basically failed, and the consistency of shipping companies' price - increase efforts has differentiated [1] - The Middle East situation, especially the Israel - Palestine conflict, is in a delicate and unstable stage, delaying the expectation of Red Sea resumption of navigation. Germany's new government's proposed fiscal expansion policy may boost investors' confidence in the medium - term growth of the eurozone if more details are released [1]

Group 1: US Economic Overview - The US federal government shutdown has lasted 36 days as of November 5, marking the longest shutdown in US history, potentially reducing Q4 GDP growth by up to 2 percentage points[2][3] - The October ISM Manufacturing PMI is at 48.7, indicating contraction for the eighth consecutive month, while the ISM Services PMI rose to 52.4, the highest in eight months[3][4] - The ADP employment report for October shows an increase of 42,000 jobs, significantly exceeding the expected 30,000[3][4] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December has increased from 63% to 66.9%[4] Group 2: Global Economic Trends - Eurozone's October Manufacturing PMI is at 50, while Services PMI is at 53, indicating stable economic conditions[5][8] - Japan's nominal wages increased by 1.9% year-on-year in September, supporting the Bank of Japan's tightening policy[6][8] - Global stock markets have collectively declined, with US indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq dropping by 1.6% and 3.0% respectively[10][12] - Commodity prices, including oil and gold, have decreased, reflecting suppressed global risk appetite[10][17] Group 3: Risks and Predictions - Risks include potential unexpected impacts from Trump's policies, higher-than-expected stagflation in the US, and increased volatility in global financial markets[22] - The GDPNow model predicts a 4.0% annualized growth rate for Q3 2023 in the US[3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the economic impact of Trump's tariff policies, highlighting that American consumers are bearing the brunt of the costs, contrary to Trump's initial claims that foreign entities would pay these tariffs [1][3][7]. Economic Impact - Trump's tariffs are projected to result in a loss of $1.2 trillion for American businesses, with the majority of the financial burden ultimately falling on consumers [7]. - Since April, American consumers have absorbed approximately 50% to 70% of the tariff costs, indicating that foreign producers are paying less than 30% [3]. Inflation and Economic Conditions - The tariffs have contributed to rising inflation in the U.S., complicating the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, which struggles to stimulate the economy through interest rate adjustments [7][17]. - Current economic indicators suggest that the U.S. is experiencing stagflation, characterized by stagnant economic growth and rising prices [14][17]. Employment Data - In October, U.S. employers announced a record 153,074 layoffs, a 183% increase compared to previous years, signaling a significant downturn in the job market [16]. - Adjustments to employment data show a downward revision of job growth, with October reflecting a loss of 9,100 jobs, marking one of the worst months of the year [16]. Federal Debt and Fiscal Policy - The U.S. national debt has surged to $38 trillion, necessitating $1.4 trillion in interest payments, which consumes nearly 30% of projected federal revenue for FY2024 [8][9]. - Trump's administration is focused on increasing revenue through tariffs to avoid a debt crisis, despite the negative implications for consumers and the economy [8][9]. Federal Reserve's Response - The Federal Reserve is reconsidering its monetary policy approach, with officials expressing concerns that previous rate cuts may have exacerbated inflation rather than alleviating it [17]. - The Fed's current strategy indicates a reluctance to lower interest rates further, as this could lead to increased inflation and further job losses in the private sector [17].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, supported by risk - aversion sentiment, loose capital, and policy expectations, Treasury bond futures are expected to remain strong. However, attention should be paid to the subsequent progress of Sino - US games and the possible fluctuations caused by the release of important domestic economic data [9]. - In the medium - to - long - term, the lack of effective demand is the main challenge for China's economic development. With the new normal of the marginal decline in the economic pulling effect of land finance and debt - driven models, and the potential impact of trade frictions in the Trump 2.0 era, total demand is unlikely to fundamentally recover in the short term, and deflation is likely to continue. Therefore, the fundamentals are favorable for bond futures, and the logic of a bond bull market is expected to continue under the support of a loose monetary cycle [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Main Views - **Weekly Market Review**: Early in the week, market sentiment was relatively stable, with the main contracts of Treasury bond futures showing mixed gains and losses and small fluctuations. On Thursday and Friday, the market was weaker, and contracts of all maturities generally closed down. In general, long - term contracts (such as 30 - year and 10 - year) performed slightly weaker than short - term contracts [4]. - **Incremental Information**: In October 2025, the central bank resumed open - market operations of buying and selling Treasury bonds, achieving a net investment of 20 billion yuan, which increased market demand and smoothed market fluctuations. To address the liquidity gap of about 2 trillion yuan in November, the central bank conducted equivalent roll - overs of 70 billion yuan in 3 - month repurchase agreements and may increase the roll - over of 6 - month repurchase agreements. In October 2025, in US dollar terms, exports were $305.353 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7%; imports were $215.279 billion, a year - on - year increase of 1.0% with a growth slowdown of 6.4 percentage points compared to September and a month - on - month decrease of 9.5%; the trade surplus was $90.07 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.9%, and the surplus was lower than market expectations [4]. Part Two: Liquidity Tracking The content mainly presents various charts related to liquidity, including open - market operations (volume and price), medium - term lending facilities (volume and price), reverse repurchase rates, capital prices (deposit - type pledged repurchase, SHIBOR, etc.), R007&DR007 trading volume and spreads, inter - bank certificate of deposit issuance rates, excess reserve ratios, LPR, deposit reserve ratios, Treasury bond yields, Treasury bond term spreads, US Treasury bond yields, and US Treasury bond term spreads, but no specific text analysis is provided [10][11][13]. Part Three: Treasury Bond Futures Arbitrage Indicator Tracking The content shows various charts of Treasury bond futures arbitrage indicators, including basis, net basis, internal rate of return (IRR), and implied interest rates for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bond futures, but no specific text analysis is provided [42][45][54].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Report's Core View - The bond market has shown a volatile downward trend recently due to a mix of bullish and bearish factors. The central bank's restart of open - market Treasury bond trading and the marginal weakening of macro - data have strengthened the expectation of policy easing, providing core support for the bond market. However, the strengthening of the equity market and the approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" have caused short - term disturbances to market sentiment. Despite short - term disturbances, the core logic supporting the bond market's improvement at the end of the year remains solid. As the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes, bond market sentiment is expected to continue to recover, and short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities [2][87][88]. - The central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading in October was relatively restrained. It is a regular operation to enrich the liquidity - injection toolbox, bringing longer - term and cheaper funds to the market, which is expected to maintain overall market liquidity and ease the fund - stratification phenomenon. The weakening of October's economic data may lead to a marginal increase in the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts, which could boost the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. The independent strength of the A - share market has temporarily boosted risk appetite and suppressed the bond market, but this suppression may be only temporary at the end of the year. The approaching implementation of the "Sales New Rules" has recently increased short - term market disturbances, but there is a possibility of a "sell - the - rumor, buy - the - news" market trend after the policy is officially implemented. Market forces are undergoing structural changes, with the active trading forces retreating, while rural commercial banks, which were previously conservative, have started to replenish their positions significantly, which is important for warming market sentiment and restoring confidence [2][88]. - If there is no increase in the expectation of interest - rate cuts to catalyze the bond - market rally, the market may show a narrow - range downward oscillation from November to December. Considering the weakening economic data, the market's expectation of reserve - requirement ratio cuts and interest - rate cuts may increase marginally, boosting the year - end "long" sentiment in the bond market. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range. For allocation, it is advisable to select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, adopting the "coupon + carry - trade" income approach, and exploring the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [2][89]. Summary by Relevant Catalog 1. Important Matters - In October, the central bank's open - market Treasury bond trading net - injected 20 billion yuan of liquidity. Through various central - bank loans, a total of 174.8 billion yuan of liquidity was injected, and through various open - market operations, a total of - 205.3 billion yuan of liquidity was injected. Among them, the net - injection scale of open - market Treasury bond trading reached 20 billion yuan [5]. - In November, the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase was carried out at the same volume. On November 5, 2025, the central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan buy - back repurchase operation with a 3 - month (91 - day) term, and the maturity scale of the 3 - month term buy - back repurchase in November was also 700 billion yuan [6]. - From January to October 2025, China's total import and export value was 37.31 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%. In October, China's export value in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, and the import value increased by 1.0% year - on - year [8]. 2. Money Market 2.1 Open - Market Operations and Fund - Rate Trends - From November 3 to November 7, 2025, the central bank injected 495.8 billion yuan through 7 - day reverse - repurchase operations, with 2068 billion yuan maturing, resulting in a net - injection of - 1572.2 billion yuan. From November 10 to November 14, 2025, it is expected that 495.8 billion yuan of base money will be matured and withdrawn. The policy rate of the 7 - day open - market reverse - repurchase was 1.40% from November 3 to November 7. As of November 7, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.392%, 1.468%, 1.332%, and 1.413% respectively, with changes of - 1.53BP, - 2.46BP, 1.37BP, and - 4.21BP compared to October 31. The interest - rate centers also changed to some extent [11][12][15]. 2.2 Certificate of Deposit (CD) Rate Trends and Repurchase Transaction Situations - In the primary market of CDs, last week, the total CD issuance scale was 527.86 billion yuan, a decrease of 206.66 billion yuan from the previous week. The maturity scale was 376.87 billion yuan, a decrease of 187.44 billion yuan from the previous week, and the net - financing scale was 150.99 billion yuan, a decrease of 19.22 billion yuan from the previous week. As of the 45th week of 2025, the cumulative annual CD issuance scale had reached 29.04 trillion yuan. The institution with the largest CD issuance scale last week was city commercial banks, with a net - financing scale of 182.16 billion yuan. The CD issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 118.15 billion yuan, 127.78 billion yuan, 237.78 billion yuan, and 48.69 billion yuan respectively, accounting for 22.2%, 24.0%, 44.7%, and 9.1% of the total issuance. The CD issuance rates of various types of banks decreased to some extent compared to the previous week [18][21][24]. - In the secondary market of CDs, the yields of CDs of all maturities increased overall. The yields of AAA - rated 1 - month, 3 - month, 6 - month, 9 - month, and 1 - year CDs increased by 6.05BP, 1.13BP, 0.73BP, 0.37BP, and 0.50BP respectively, and the 1Y - 3M spread was at the 54.41% quantile level [28]. 3. Bond Market - In the primary market, last week, the supply of discounted Treasury bonds and short - term Treasury bonds increased. A total of 54 interest - rate bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 513.997 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 318.843 billion yuan. From January to November, the net - financing pace of local government bonds was generally faster than that of Treasury bonds. As of November 7, 2025, the cumulative net - financing scale of various Treasury bonds was about 5.85 trillion yuan, and that of various local bonds was about 6.44 trillion yuan, with a more obvious increase in the supply scale of central - government finances compared to the 2021 - 2024 average [31]. - In the secondary market, the bullish market of the restarted Treasury bond trading has temporarily ended. As the implementation of the "Sales New Rules" approaches, interest rates have generally shown a volatile upward trend. The yields of 1 - year, 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds and the corresponding yields of China Development Bank bonds have all changed to some extent. The implied tax rate of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds increased slightly. The liquidity premium of active bonds has generally increased. The average spread between the active and sub - active bonds of 10 - year China Development Bank bonds was about - 6BP [31][45]. - The supply of Treasury bonds increased significantly last week. Among them, 5 Treasury bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 295.89 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 225.8 billion yuan; 32 local government bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 91.607 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of - 5.457 billion yuan; 17 policy - financial bonds were issued, with an actual issuance amount of 126.5 billion yuan and a net - financing amount of 98.5 billion yuan. As of last week, the issuance scale of special refinancing bonds had reached 2.06 trillion yuan, mainly with long - and ultra - long - term maturities, and the issuance scale of bonds with maturities of 10 years and above was about 1.81 trillion yuan, accounting for about 88.02%. Regions with relatively large issuance scales include Jiangsu, Sichuan, Shandong, Guizhou, and Henan, accounting for about 35.67% of the total issuance scale [40][42]. 4. Institutional Behavior Tracking - Last week, the scale of leveraged trading fluctuated around a high - level center, with an average of about 7.97 trillion yuan. In the cash - bond market, the buying power of state - owned banks weakened, and they continued to prefer to increase their holdings of Treasury bonds with maturities of less than 5 years, but the buying scale decreased compared to the previous week. Rural commercial banks changed from selling to buying, with a total weekly increase in holdings of less than 5 billion yuan, which was a significant improvement compared to the previous week's net - selling of over 124 billion yuan. The承接 power of funds weakened, and securities companies sold about 31 billion yuan net. In contrast, the insurance industry's willingness to increase its holdings increased marginally, and it increased its holdings of policy - financial bonds with maturities of over 5 years [61][71]. - In September 2025, the overall inter - bank market institutional leverage ratio was about 118.68%, an increase of about 0.06 percentage points from August. The leverage ratios of commercial banks, securities companies, and other institutions in the inter - bank market in September were about 109.85%, 192.23%, and 133.25% respectively [61]. - The 20 - day moving average of the daily trading volume of inter - bank pledged repurchase last week was 7.37 trillion yuan, a change of about 430 billion yuan from the previous week. The average scale of leveraged trading last week was about 7.97 trillion yuan, and the daily leveraged - trading scales from November 3 to November 7 were 7.69 trillion yuan, 7.93 trillion yuan, 8.09 trillion yuan, 8.42 trillion yuan, and 7.72 trillion yuan respectively [67]. - Based on the net - buying data of institutional investors in the past 20 trading days, the recent average cost of adding positions in 10 - year Treasury bonds for major trading players such as rural commercial banks, securities companies, funds, and other products is around 1.830%. Rural commercial banks' behavior of adding positions at high prices was obvious last week, while the position - adding actions of securities companies and funds cooled down [74]. - According to the calculation methods in relevant reports, since the current spread between local government bonds and Treasury bonds is relatively high, both commercial banks and insurance companies can obtain relatively higher returns by investing in local government bonds [81]. 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking - In terms of high - frequency data, last week, the settlement price of rebar futures decreased by 3.42% week - on - week, the settlement price of wire rod futures remained unchanged at 0.00%, the settlement price of cathode - copper futures decreased by 1.54%, the cement - price index increased by 0.06%, and the Nanhua Glass Index increased by 0.74%. The CCFI index increased by 3.60% and the BDI index increased by 7.02% week - on - week. In terms of food prices, the wholesale price of pork increased by 2.42% and the wholesale price of vegetables increased by 1.58% week - on - week. The settlement prices of Brent crude - oil futures and WTI crude - oil futures decreased by 2.60% and 2.54% respectively week - on - week. The central parity rate of the US dollar against the RMB last week was 7.08 [84]. 6. Market Outlook - The bond market is expected to continue to recover as the suppression from the equity market eases and market forces undergo structural changes. Short - term fluctuations may present good allocation opportunities. It is conservatively estimated that the lower limits of the yields of 30 - year and 10 - year Treasury bonds (old bonds) may be around 1.9% and 1.7% respectively. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to set the portfolio duration in the medium - to - long range, select high - quality coupon - bearing assets as the bottom - position, and explore the allocation opportunities of 2 - year AA -/AA - rated credit bonds and 10 - year local government bonds. For trading, it is recommended to pay attention to the trading opportunities of medium - duration varieties such as secondary perpetual bonds that have experienced significant declines [87][88][89].