Core Viewpoint - The bond market has experienced a pullback recently, leading to a divergence in product net values, with "equity-linked" fixed income products outperforming others [2][3]. Summary by Sections Fixed Income Product Yield Review - In the past month, the performance of fixed income products has varied significantly, with equity-linked bond funds yielding 0.84%, high-grade interbank certificates of deposit at 0.14%, cash management at 0.10%, short-term bond funds at 0.03%, and medium to long-term bond funds at -0.25% [3][9]. Bond Market Review - The bond market has faced increased negative disturbances, with expectations of fundamental recovery rising. Key developments include the launch of infrastructure projects and the implementation of various policies [12][35]. - The yield curve has steepened, with short-term rates stable and medium to long-term rates rising. For instance, the 1-year government bond yield increased by 1 basis point to 1.37%, while the 10-year yield rose by 8 basis points to 1.75% [16][22]. Market Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate stable interbank certificate rates, while medium-term views suggest limited upward movement in interest rates. The 10-year government bond yield is expected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.9% [34][42]. - The credit bond market is anticipated to underperform compared to interest rate bonds in the short term, with credit spreads widening slightly [36][38]. Investment Strategy and Recommendations - For investors focused on liquidity management, maintaining current cash product allocations is advised, with a gradual increase in stable low-volatility investments [44]. - Conservative investors should be cautious with long-duration products, while those with higher risk tolerance may consider medium to long-term bond funds when yields exceed 1.8% [45]. - For advanced conservative investors, a focus on fixed income plus strategies that include convertible bonds and equity assets is recommended [47].

【黄金期货最新行情】 【基本面消息】 数据显示，8月19日上海黄金现货价格报价772.90元/克，相较于期货主力价格（775.06元/克）贴水2.16 元/克。 美国通胀压力依旧顽固，但劳动力市场降温，美联储决策困难下降息预期仍有摇摆，关注本周21~23日 杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会上鲍威尔是否提前透露增量信息。 【机构观点】 | 8月19日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 775.06 | -0.13% | 121675 | 191435 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 广州期货：沪金跌0.13%至775.04元/克，沪银涨0.16%至9225元/千克。美国总统特朗普与乌克兰总统泽 连斯基在白宫举行会晤；特朗普表示，如果一切顺利，美俄乌将举行三边会谈；泽连斯基在发言中明确 表示，乌克兰需要"所有与安全相关的保障"，包括军队、武器、训练和情报。美国通胀预期上行，本周 关注杰克逊霍尔央行年会上美联储官员围绕货币政策部署的表态。十年期美债收益率涨1.37个基点至 4.332%，贵金属价 ...

Group 1 - The US dollar index rebounded, closing at 98.12, up 0.31% [1] - The 10-year US Treasury yield closed at 4.340%, while the 2-year yield was at 3.771% [1] - Gold prices initially rose but ended up falling, closing at $3332.67 per ounce, down 0.09% [1] Group 2 - Geopolitical risks have temporarily eased, negatively impacting gold prices [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium, which could significantly influence gold and silver prices [1] - The gold market shows a bearish trend, with expectations of further declines, particularly testing the $3300 support level [3] Group 3 - Oil prices have shown weakness, with WTI crude oil futures closing at $62.56 per barrel, up 0.47% after dipping to a low of $61.44 [3] - The market remains cautious due to geopolitical tensions and potential sanctions against Russia, although there are signs of easing concerns [3] - Oil prices are expected to continue fluctuating, with a focus on the $60 support level [5]

Monetary Policy Actions - In Q2 2025, the central bank lowered the re-lending rate by 0.25 percentage points and increased the re-lending quota for agriculture and small enterprises by CNY 300 billion each[2] - The central bank also reduced the policy interest rate by 0.1 percentage points and the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points for most financial institutions[2] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was set at 3.0%, and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, both down by 10 basis points[2] Economic Outlook - The report indicates a cautious stance on the external economic environment, highlighting weakened global growth and increased trade barriers[2] - Domestic economic conditions are described as stable, with strengths in market size, industrial systems, and talent resources, emphasizing the need for strategic focus[2] - The policy goals include maintaining stability in employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, aligning with the "14th Five-Year Plan" objectives[2] Future Policy Directions - The emphasis on "implementing and refining" the moderately loose monetary policy suggests a shift towards more precise and effective policy measures[3] - Structural monetary policy tools are expected to be enhanced to support technology innovation, consumption, and small enterprises[2] - The report anticipates that the monetary policy will remain moderately loose in the second half of 2025, influenced by domestic fiscal policies and the stability of financial institutions[2] Risk Factors - Potential risks include a resurgence of overseas inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and increasing complexity in international relations[2]

证券研究报告 | 固定收益研究*周报 2025 年 08 月 19 日 固定收益研究 债市周观察（8.11-8.17）——如何看待当前的股债状态 上周十年期国债收益率自 8 月 11 日开盘的 1.69%持续攀升至周尾的 1.75%，股市强势上涨（沪指突破 3700 点创阶段新高）持续压制债市情 绪，悲观氛围蔓延。本周一，债市继续受制于权益行情，一路最高上行至 1.789%，只是在盘尾略有回落至 1.77%。总体来说随着权益的缓慢上 涨，十年期国债已经比前期市场认为的 1.70%的中枢上升了近 7 个 BP， 虽不是大跌，但也有一定回调幅度（回调幅度距一季度的 1.90%左右还有 距离）。 那么如何看待当前这种"股慢牛，债不连续大跌"的股债状态？自去年 924 大幅的总量货币政策下，股市先走出一波快牛后，迅速回落，随之而 来的就是债市利率的快速下行，年末在市场对适度宽松的货币政策误解 下，十年期国债利率与 OMO 利率一度只差 10BP，而 30 年国债利率与十 年期国债利率利差也快压缩接近 10BP，这显然不是货币当局和政府希望 看到的，于是今年以来，货币当局通过一季度的收紧流动性（当时确实也 有这个条件） ...

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - In July, new social financing (社融) amounted to 1.16 trillion yuan, an increase of 389.3 billion yuan year-on-year, but a decrease of 3.04 trillion yuan compared to June, falling short of the expected 1.41 trillion yuan[2] - The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock in July was 9.0%, slightly below the expected 9.08%[2] - New RMB loans in July were -426.3 billion yuan, a decrease of 345.5 billion yuan year-on-year and a drop of 2.79 trillion yuan from June[2] Group 2: Financing Structure and Trends - Government bond financing and direct financing supported new social financing, with notable increases in government bonds, corporate bonds, stock financing, and trust loans compared to the previous year[2] - The proportion of government bonds in the financing structure increased by 0.24 percentage points from June, while RMB loans decreased by 0.25 percentage points[2] - M2 money supply grew by 8.8% year-on-year in July, while M1 and M0 grew by 5.6% and 11.8%, respectively[2] Group 3: Deposit and Loan Dynamics - In July, new deposits totaled 500 billion yuan, with significant increases in non-bank deposits (2.14 trillion yuan) and fiscal deposits (770 billion yuan), while corporate and resident deposits decreased by 1.46 trillion yuan and 1.11 trillion yuan, respectively[2] - New loans were weak, with a total decrease of 500 billion yuan, primarily driven by declines in medium and long-term loans and residential loans[2] - The decline in residential medium and long-term loans indicates weakening demand in the real estate market, with a year-on-year decrease of 1.2 billion yuan[2] Group 4: Policy Implications and Economic Outlook - The importance of boosting domestic demand has increased, with government policies focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, and market expectations[2] - The report suggests that internal demand will be a key driver for economic growth in the medium to long term, alongside potential fiscal and monetary policy adjustments[2] - Risks include a potential rise in global inflation, rapid economic downturns in Europe and the U.S., and complex international situations[2]

吉伦为央行的货币政策辩护，称其有效性可通过信贷和汇率市场观察到。他同时指出，2025年以来外汇 市场走势并无异常，雷亚尔兑美元表现与全球趋势一致。 （文章来源：新华财经） 目前，巴西基准利率维持在15%，这一水平自6月确立并在7月底上一次货币政策会议上保持不变。 新华财经圣保罗8月19日电 巴西央行经济政策局局长迪奥戈·吉伦（Diogo Guillen）18日表示，目前考虑 在货币政策委员会（Copom）会议上下调基准利率（Selic）仍为时过早。 吉伦在巴西沃伦投资公司（Warren Investimentos）举办的"沃伦日"活动上指出，央行仍在寻找最适合实 现通胀目标的利率水平，并强调一旦确定，将维持在这一区间较长时间。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The second - round China - US trade talks extended the tariff exemption clause, and the Politburo meeting's policy tone was consistent with the previous one. The TMT sector rose strongly, and the stock index increased with heavy trading volume. However, the improvement in corporate earnings needs to be verified by the upcoming mid - year report data [2]. - Multiple negative factors such as the central bank's mention of "preventing idle funds from circulating" in the second - quarter monetary policy report, the strong performance of the stock market, and the tightening of funds during the tax payment period led to a significant decline in bond futures. The bond market sentiment remains weak [2]. - The meeting of US, Ukrainian, and European leaders brought hope for easing the Russia - Ukraine conflict, which increased risk appetite and caused precious metals to rise and then fall. Gold and silver prices are in a range - bound state [2]. - The container shipping index (European line) is in a weak and volatile state, and the short position of the October contract should be continued to hold [2]. - Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. Iron ore follows the price fluctuations of steel, while some coal prices are showing signs of weakness [2]. - The prices of non - ferrous metals such as copper, aluminum, and zinc are in a narrow - range or weak - range fluctuation, and different trading strategies are recommended for each metal [2]. - The energy and chemical sectors show different trends. Some products are in a range - bound state, while others are facing supply - demand pressures and are recommended for short - selling or other strategies [2]. - In the agricultural products sector, different products have different trends, such as the upward trend of palm oil and the weakening trend of corn [2]. - Special commodities like glass are in a weak state, and new energy products such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate need to pay attention to policy and supply - related factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index**: The stock index rose with heavy volume, but the improvement in earnings needs mid - year report data verification. It is recommended to sell put options on MO2509 with an exercise price around 6600 at high prices and have a moderately bullish view [2]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Multiple negative factors led to a decline in bond futures. The bond market is in an unfavorable situation, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold is recommended to build a bullish spread strategy through call options at the low - price stage after price corrections. Silver is recommended to maintain a low - buying strategy or build a bullish spread strategy with options [2]. Black - **Steel**: Steel prices are supported due to limited inventory accumulation in steel mills and upcoming production restrictions. The 10 - month contracts of hot - rolled coils and rebar should pay attention to the support levels of 3400 yuan and 3200 yuan respectively [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The shipping volume increased, and the port inventory and port clearance improved. It follows the price fluctuations of steel, and it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coking Coal**: After the exchange's intervention, the futures price peaked and declined, and some coal prices weakened. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Coke**: The sixth - round price increase of mainstream coking plants has been implemented, and the seventh - round price increase is in progress. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. Non - ferrous - **Copper**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 78000 - 79500 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum Oxide**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 3000 - 3300 yuan [2]. - **Aluminum**: The price fluctuated downward due to the additional tariff on aluminum. The main contract should pay attention to the pressure level of 21000 yuan and fluctuates within the range of 20000 - 21000 yuan [2]. - **Zinc**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 22000 - 23000 yuan [2]. - **Tin**: It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [2]. - **Nickel**: The main contract fluctuates within the range of 118000 - 126000 yuan [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: The main contract fluctuates in a narrow range, with cost support but demand drag, and fluctuates within the range of 12800 - 13500 yuan [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term geopolitical risk is the main factor. It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and expand the spread between the October - November/December contracts. The support levels for WTI, Brent, and SC are given [2]. - **Urea**: The Indian tender news has a certain boost to the market. If there are no more positive factors after the price rebound, it is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **PX**: The supply - demand pressure is not significant, and the demand is expected to improve. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 6600 - 6900 range and expand the PX - SC spread at a low level [2]. - **PTA**: The processing fee is low, and the cost support is limited. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the 4600 - 4800 range and conduct a reverse spread operation on TA1 - 5 at high prices [2]. - **Short - fiber**: The supply - demand situation is expected to improve, but there is no obvious short - term driver. It is recommended to try to go long at the lower end of the 6300 - 6500 range [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The production reduction effect is obvious, and the inventory is slowly decreasing. It is recommended to go long on the processing fee at a low price [2]. - **Ethanol**: The supply of MEG is gradually returning, and it is expected to follow the fluctuations of commodities. It is in the range of 4300 - 4500 yuan [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The main downstream buyers are purchasing well, and the spot price is stable. It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - **PVC**: The supply - demand pressure is still high, and it is recommended to take a short - selling approach [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand expectation has improved, but the driving force is limited due to high inventory. It follows the fluctuations of oil prices and styrene [2]. - **Styrene**: The supply - demand situation has marginally improved, but the cost support is limited. It is recommended to short on rebounds within the 7200 - 7400 range [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The cost is in a range - bound state, and the supply - demand is loose. It is recommended to hold the seller position of the short - term put option BR2509 - P - 11400 [2]. - **LLDPE**: The basis remains stable, and the trading volume is acceptable. It is in a short - term volatile state [2]. - **PP**: The spot price has little change, and the trading volume has weakened. It is recommended to take profit on the short position in the 7200 - 7300 range [2]. - **Methanol**: The inventory is continuously tightening, and the price is weakening. It is recommended to conduct range - bound operations within 2350 - 2550 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Related Products**: The cost support is strong, and a long - term bullish expectation remains. It is recommended to arrange long positions for the January contract [2]. - **Pigs**: The spot price is in a low - level volatile state, and attention should be paid to the rhythm of production release [2]. - **Corn**: The supply pressure is emerging, and the futures price is in a weak state. It is recommended to short at high prices [2]. - **Palm Oil**: The Malaysian palm oil price is rising, and the domestic palm oil price is following the upward trend. It is expected to reach the 10000 - yuan mark in the short term [2]. - **Sugar**: The overseas supply outlook is loose. It is recommended to reduce the short position established at the previous high price [2]. - **Cotton**: The downstream market is weak. It is recommended to reduce the short position [2]. - **Eggs**: The spot price is weak. It is bearish in the long - term [2]. - **Apples**: The sales are slow. Attention should be paid to the price trend of early - maturing apples. The main contract is around 8250 [2]. - **Jujubes**: The price is stable. It is recommended to be cautious when chasing high prices and focus on short - term trading [2]. - **Soda Ash**: The supply is at a high level, and the fundamentals are weakening. It is recommended to try short - selling at high prices [2]. Special Commodities - **Glass**: The industry is in a negative feedback cycle, and the futures price is weak. It is recommended to hold the short position [2]. - **Rubber**: Attention should be paid to the raw material price increase during the peak production period [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in production capacity [2]. New Energy - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the change in policy expectations [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The supply is subject to continuous disturbances, and the fundamentals are marginally improving. It is recommended to be cautious and try to go long with a light position at a low price [2].

来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 同日，人民币对美元中间价7.1359，较上一交易日下调37个基点。 国泰海通宏观团队表示，2025年二季度货币政策报告对人民币汇率的表述较一季度货币政策执行报告明 显缓和，表明汇率在合理均衡水平上基本稳定，货币政策的执行节奏将"以我为主"。 美元指数在98关口上方震荡，截至9时30分，报98.2848。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 黄冰玉 陈佳怡）8月19日，Wind数据显示，在岸人民币对美元开盘跌68 点，报7.1860，上一交易日16时30分收盘报7.1792。截至9时30分，离岸人民币对美元报7.18872。 ...

Core Points - The Central Bank of Mauritania (BCM) has significantly reduced its inflation forecast, noting a decline in domestic inflation from 3.0% in July 2024 to 1.3% in July 2025, indicating a clear downward trend in inflation [1] - The BCM's monetary policy committee decided to maintain the main interest rates, with the benchmark rate at 6%, the lending facility rate at 6.5%, and the deposit facility rate at 2% [2] - This decision aims to consolidate economic stability, further support price stability, and allow room for future monetary policy adjustments [2]