Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) emphasizes a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on both short-term and long-term goals while supporting economic growth and managing risks [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The PBOC will adhere to a stable yet progressive work guideline, fully implementing the new development philosophy [1] - There is a commitment to deepen financial reform and enhance high-level opening-up, aiming to build a strong financial nation [1] - The central bank aims to improve the monetary policy system and establish a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [1] Group 2: Economic Management - The PBOC seeks to balance various economic factors, including growth versus risk prevention and internal versus external equilibrium [1] - There is a focus on reinforcing the consistency of macro policies and effectively managing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments [1] - The goal is to enhance macroeconomic governance efficiency while ensuring stable growth, employment, and expectations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a balanced approach to monetary policy, focusing on steady progress while adhering to the new development philosophy and advancing financial reform and openness [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy Strategy - The central bank will maintain a stable and progressive work guideline, fully implementing the new development concept [1] - There is a commitment to deepen financial reform and enhance high-level openness in the financial sector [1] - The goal is to construct a robust monetary policy system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework [1] Group 2: Economic Balance - The central bank aims to balance short-term and long-term goals, growth support and risk prevention, as well as internal and external equilibrium [1] - There is a focus on reinforcing the consistency of macro policy orientation [1] - The central bank will enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to improve macroeconomic governance effectiveness [1] Group 3: Economic Stability - The objectives include sustaining growth, stabilizing employment, and maintaining expectations [1]

11月11日，央行发布2025年第三季度中国货币政策执行报告。报告提出，下阶段，中国人民银行将保持 金融总量合理增长。实施好适度宽松的货币政策，保持社会融资条件相对宽松。根据经济金融形势的变 化，做好逆周期和跨周期调节，持续营造适宜的货币金融环境。密切关注海外主要央行货币政策变化， 持续加强对银行体系流动性供求和金融市场变化的分析监测。综合运用多种货币政策工具，保持流动性 充裕。引导银行稳固信贷支持力度，保持金融总量合理增长，使社会融资规模、货币供应量增长同经济 增长和价格总水平预期目标相匹配。 ...

Group 1 - The issuance of new special bonds in China has reached approximately 40,097.92 billion yuan as of November 7, exceeding the 40 trillion yuan mark, with an overall progress of over 91% against the planned 44 trillion yuan for the year [1] - The issuance of new special bonds has shown a quarterly increase, with total issuance in the first three quarters amounting to 36,772.24 billion yuan, indicating a reasonable pace and rhythm in the overall issuance [1] - The remaining issuance will ensure the completion of the annual target, providing strong financial support for stabilizing growth and investment, while matching the project construction cycle to improve fund utilization efficiency [1] Group 2 - The use of special bond funds has shifted significantly this year, with increased support for real estate and government investment funds, enhancing the flexibility and adaptability of bond investments [2] - Four major highlights of this year's special bond issuance include stable issuance rhythm and balanced scale, more pronounced counter-cyclical adjustment effects, strong government investment driving force, and increased funding directed towards land reserves and government investment funds [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the acceleration of new growth momentum in China's economy through enhanced fiscal policies, support for innovation, and investment in key industries, while ensuring the stability of employment and market expectations [1][3]. Group 1: Fiscal Policy and Economic Growth - The fiscal policy is increasingly proactive, focusing on stabilizing employment, businesses, and market expectations, while promoting economic recovery [3][4]. - A total of 300 billion yuan in special bonds is allocated to support the replacement of consumer goods, which is expected to stimulate significant retail sales [4][15]. - The central government plans to increase its technology funding to 398.12 billion yuan in 2025, a 10% increase from the previous year, focusing on core technology and strategic industries [5][21]. Group 2: Investment and Consumption - The government aims to enhance domestic demand by boosting consumption and effective investment, with a focus on key sectors and weak links [13][16]. - The issuance of special bonds has accelerated, with 5.55 billion yuan issued in the first half of the year, completing 42.7% of the annual target [16]. - The manufacturing sector is expected to see a 10.3% increase in industrial investment, driven by government support for technological upgrades [17]. Group 3: Employment and Social Welfare - The central government allocated 667.4 billion yuan for employment support, with 6.95 million new urban jobs created in the first half of the year [27][28]. - Education spending increased by 5.9% to 2.15 trillion yuan, with a focus on improving quality and access to education [29][30]. - Basic public health service funding reached 804.35 billion yuan, enhancing health management and disease prevention efforts [32][33]. Group 4: Risk Management and Financial Stability - The government is implementing measures to mitigate financial risks, including the management of local government debt and the promotion of real estate market stability [7][9]. - A comprehensive approach to fiscal management is being adopted, including reforms in tax systems and budget execution to ensure effective use of resources [7][12]. Group 5: Innovation and Technology - The report highlights the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial development, with a focus on enhancing research capabilities and supporting key technology projects [20][21]. - Funding for basic research is set to increase by 12.1%, emphasizing the need for original innovation and support for research institutions [21][22]. Group 6: Environmental and Social Development - The government is committed to ecological protection and sustainable development, with significant funding allocated for pollution control and ecosystem restoration [38][39]. - Social welfare programs are being expanded, with increased support for vulnerable populations and efforts to improve living standards [34][35].

Core Insights - The company has acquired approximately 220 billion yuan of non-performing asset packages from small and medium-sized banks since 2022, successfully winning multiple cross-regional asset packages and large individual assets [1] - In 2024, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders surged to 9.618 billion yuan, marking its best performance in six years, with a net profit of 6.168 billion yuan in the first half of the year and an annualized return on equity (ROE) of 21.1% [1] - The company has optimized its asset structure and quality, with nearly 90% of its non-performing asset management division's assets and 98.3% of its revenue coming from its core business, showing a nearly 40% increase since early 2022 [1] Business Development - The company has created a unique risk management model leveraging the comprehensive advantages of CITIC Group, addressing real estate risks through 93 relief projects totaling 55.9 billion yuan, ensuring the delivery of 75,900 residential units [2] - The company has invested 2.6 billion yuan to support the construction of pumped storage power stations and has participated in the capital increase of State Grid New Source, focusing on green finance and energy transition [2] - Over the past three years, the company has invested more than 25 billion yuan in strategic emerging industries and ecological environmental protection, utilizing various financial tools such as market-oriented debt-to-equity swaps and mergers and acquisitions [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that China's service trade has shown steady growth in the first three quarters, with a significant increase in travel service exports, which rose by over 54% [1] Group 2 - In the first three quarters, the total service trade import and export volume reached 59,362.2 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.6% [1] - Service exports amounted to 26,015 billion yuan, growing by 14.4%, while imports were 33,347.2 billion yuan, increasing by 2.8% [1] - Travel service imports and exports reached 16,372.5 billion yuan, with an overall growth of 8.8%, and exports specifically surged by 54.4% while imports grew by 2.7% [1] Group 3 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) plans to introduce more robust opening-up measures to enhance risk prevention and regulatory capabilities [2] - Key initiatives include improving cross-border investment and financing convenience, deepening cooperation between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, and strengthening regulatory capacity in an open environment [2]

二十届四中全会开完以后，人民币汇率升值，股市突破长期震 荡区间，股债跷跷板利空债市。但是央行公告称，为保持银行体系 流动性充裕，10 月 27 日将以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标 方式开展 9000 亿元 MLF 操作，期限为 1 年期。由于 10 月有 7000 亿元 MLF 到期，本月央行 MLF 净投放将达到 2000 亿元，为央行连 续第 8 个月对 MLF 加量续做。流动性和股债跷跷板共同作用，使得 债市操作难度加大。央行行长潘功胜在《国务院关于金融工作情况 的报告》中表示，下一步将落实落细适度宽松的货币政策，执行好 各项已出台货币政策措施，持续释放政策效能，研究储备新的政策 举措。巩固资本市场向好势头，健全稳市机制。 2025 金融街论坛年会开幕，央行行长潘功胜、金融监管总局局 长李云泽、证监会主席吴清重磅发声。潘功胜表示，央行将继续坚 持支持性的货币政策立场，恢复公开市场国债买卖操作。公开市场 买卖国债，有利于控制远端债市利率，进一步减弱股债跷跷板对债 市的影响，有效控制住利率和资金成本，从而有效进行对实体经济 赋能，增加逆周期调节力度。 逆周期调节或增加，震荡略偏多 摘 要： 宁证期货期货 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The document does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2) Core View of the Report The report analyzes the October 2025 PMI data, indicating that the manufacturing industry is under pressure and the economy still needs policy support. The manufacturing PMI has declined, with structural pressures intensifying, while the service industry has a mild uptick and the construction industry remains sluggish. Future economic improvement requires the implementation of policies such as anti - involution and expanding domestic demand [1][6]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Manufacturing Industry - **Overall Situation**: In October, the manufacturing PMI was 49.0%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for seven consecutive months, showing a weakening overall manufacturing industry due to factors like reduced working days, trade frictions, and high inventory [1]. - **Structural Pressures**: All four major sub - indicators of the manufacturing PMI declined. The production index dropped to 49.7%, the new order index to 48.8%, the raw material inventory to 47.3%, and the employment index to 48.3%, indicating weakness in production, demand, and employment [2]. - **Enterprise Scale**: The PMIs of large, medium, and small enterprises were 49.9%, 48.7%, and 47.1% respectively, all in the contraction range. Large enterprises entered the contraction range for the first time in the second half of the year, and small and medium - sized enterprises have been below the boom - bust line for many months [2]. - **Demand Side**: External demand contracted significantly, with the new export order index dropping 1.9 percentage points to 45.9% and the import index falling 1.3 percentage points to 46.8%. Domestic demand was relatively stable, and the domestic market's support for demand increased [3]. - **Industry Categories**: New - energy - related industries had better prosperity, while basic raw material industries were weak. The production index of equipment manufacturing, high - tech manufacturing, and consumer goods manufacturing decreased but remained in the expansion range, while the production index of basic raw material industries dropped below 48% [3]. - **PMI Quantity - Price Sub - Index**: The PMI quantity - price (ex - factory price index) sub - index weakened, reflecting the pressure of demand contraction and poor cost transmission. It may continue the contraction trend in the short term [5]. Service Industry - The service industry PMI was 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, hovering around the boom - bust line for many months. Consumer service industries recovered significantly, while production - related service industries fell into the contraction range [5]. Construction Industry - The construction industry PMI was 49.1%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous value, remaining in the contraction range for three consecutive months. The decline of the real estate market and the slowdown of infrastructure investment were the main reasons for the industry's downturn, but infrastructure - related construction activities showed signs of acceleration [5]. Future Outlook - Economic recovery requires policy support. The implementation of anti - involution and domestic - demand - expansion policies in the fourth quarter will help improve the economy. The injection of new policy - based financial tools, the early use of part of the 2026 fiscal budget, and the "15th Five - Year Plan" will provide impetus for the manufacturing industry [6].

Key Points of the Research Report Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report provides short - term evaluations of various commodities including metals, energy, agricultural products, and financial products, with expectations of price trends such as oscillation, weakening, or strengthening based on their respective fundamentals and market conditions [1][3][4] Summary by Commodity Metals - **螺纹钢 (Rebar)**: Fundamentals continue to improve, but inventory is still relatively high year - on - year. With the approaching end of the peak season, demand expectations are cautious. After a short - term macro sentiment cools, the futures price is expected to be under pressure. However, there is cost support and potential policy benefits, so there is a rebound drive after a weak adjustment [1] - **黄金 (Gold)**: There are differences in the Fed's decision on another interest rate cut, increasing market volatility. Although the US government shutdown has reduced the risk - aversion sentiment, the buying power of gold remains strong. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may oscillate at a high level in the medium term [1] - **焦煤 (Coking Coal)**: Supply is affected by frequent inspections, mine production cuts, and other factors, with limited increase. Demand remains stable, and the upstream coal mines have reduced their inventories to a low level in recent years. The coking coal spot market is stable and slightly strong, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [3] - **铁矿石 (Iron Ore)**: Supply has short - term disturbances, and demand has decreased significantly due to environmental protection and profit factors. The fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not obvious. After the macro factors are realized, the market may turn to fundamental trading, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [4] - **白银 (Silver)**: Positive information from China - US talks and the better - than - expected economic recovery in the Eurozone have increased risk appetite and boosted silver. It is expected to oscillate upwards with limited downside space [7] Agricultural Products - **生猪 (Live Pigs)**: In early November, the market supply of pigs is becoming more abundant, and the enthusiasm for second - fattening has weakened. Terminal consumption has not been significantly boosted. The price of live pigs is expected to decline slowly, and the main contract LH2601 is under short - term downward pressure [5] - **菜粕 (Rapeseed Meal)**: Supply is rigidly short, and coastal oil mills have low inventories, reducing the risk of price decline. The domestic rapeseed crushing has basically stagnated, and the oil mill operating rate is low. It is recommended to buy at low prices [6] - **棕榈油 (Palm Oil)**: Affected by rapeseed oil, the futures price has broken through the previous low. Although domestic spot demand has been released, terminal consumption has not improved, and future arrivals are expected to be large. The price is expected to continue to oscillate weakly in the short term [6][7] Energy - **原油 (Crude Oil)**: OPEC + will continue to increase production in December, and the market will be under pressure for the rest of the year. The oversupply pressure will be slightly relieved in the first quarter of next year. It should be treated with a weak - oscillation view [11] - **沥青 (Bitumen)**: The capacity utilization rate has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the peak - season demand is not strong, increasing the downward pressure. The overall trend is weak - oscillation [12] Financial Products - **长期国债 (Long - term Treasury Bonds)**: The PMI data shows increased economic downward pressure, and counter - cyclical adjustment needs to be intensified. The open - market trading of treasury bonds is likely to lower interest rates, which is a positive factor for the bond market. Due to liquidity easing and the stock - bond seesaw effect, the bond market is expected to oscillate slightly upwards in the medium term [7] Chemicals - **甲醇 (Methanol)**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is stable, and port inventories fluctuate slightly. The inland market is weak, and the port basis is weak. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with resistance at 2210 [8] - **纯碱 (Soda Ash)**: The float glass industry is stable with decreasing inventory. The domestic soda ash market is stable, with high - level supply and low - level demand. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 1240 [9] - **聚丙烯 (Polypropylene)**: Supply pressure has been slightly relieved due to concentrated equipment maintenance, and commercial inventories have decreased. Demand has slightly increased, but the market trading atmosphere has slowed down. The cost support is strong. The PP 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 6620 [10] Rubber - **橡胶 (Rubber)**: In November, the overall shipment pressure remains high, and some enterprises have plans to reduce production or conduct maintenance, which will limit the increase in capacity utilization. However, China's rubber inventories have continued to decline, providing medium - term support. The downward space of rubber prices may be limited [13]