Market Overview - International gold prices saw a significant increase on January 12, opening at $4,518.58 per ounce, reaching a high of $4,627.49, a low of $4,513.08, and closing at $4,621.30 [1] Economic Outlook - New York Fed President Williams projected a healthy U.S. economy in 2026, indicating no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term. He stated that current monetary policy is well-positioned to support labor market stability and help inflation return to the 2% target [2] - Williams expects GDP growth this year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and then declining in subsequent years. He anticipates inflation pressures peaking between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [2] Federal Reserve Investigation - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin expressed dissatisfaction regarding the investigation into Fed Chair Powell, suggesting it could negatively impact financial markets. He indicated that Powell's position is now more secure than before [4] - Former Fed Chair Yellen criticized the investigation as undermining the Fed's independence, expressing surprise at the market's lack of concern. She firmly stated that Powell would not commit perjury [5] - UBS Chief Economist Donovan noted that the investigation could ultimately strengthen the Fed's independence, as market concerns about political interference in rate management are rising [5] Geopolitical Developments - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from countries conducting business with Iran, which is intended to increase pressure on the Iranian government. This move may temporarily reduce the likelihood of U.S. military intervention in Iran [6] - The White House emphasized that diplomacy remains the preferred approach, although military options are still on the table if necessary [6] Protests in Iran - Protests against rising prices and currency devaluation have occurred in Iran, leading to unrest and casualties. However, reports indicate that the situation in Tehran has stabilized, with improved public order [7] Gold ETF Holdings - The SPDR Gold Trust, the largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 6.24 tons, bringing the total to 1,070.8 tons [7] Market Sentiment - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed in January is at 5%, while the probability of maintaining the current rate is at 95%. By March, the cumulative probability of a 25 basis point cut rises to 26% [7]

Group 1 - The U.S. Labor Department is set to release the Consumer Price Index (CPI) report for December, with expectations of a slight increase in inflation, remaining above the Federal Reserve's 2% target due to data collection disruptions from a government shutdown [2][3] - Analysts predict a 0.3% month-on-month increase in overall inflation for December, with a year-on-year increase of 2.7%. Core inflation, excluding volatile food and energy prices, is expected to rise by 0.26% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year, both higher than November's actual readings [3][4] - The impact of tariffs is expected to continue pushing up prices, particularly in food, clothing, and automotive sectors, despite some tariffs being lifted at the end of last year [3][4] Group 2 - The market's expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have diminished, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in the upcoming meetings dropping significantly, particularly from 79% to 40% for the April meeting [2][5] - The December non-farm payroll report indicated a slower job growth rate, which has led to a more stable labor market, but concerns about the job market have increased among households, raising short-term inflation expectations [5][6] - The potential political interference from the Trump administration regarding Federal Reserve Chairman Powell may deter the Fed from cutting rates, as officials aim to avoid perceptions of yielding to political pressure [6]

Core Viewpoint - John Williams, President of the New York Federal Reserve, expects a healthy U.S. economy by 2026 and sees no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Williams stated that the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has moved its moderately restrictive monetary policy stance closer to neutral [1][3]. - He believes that monetary policy is currently positioned to support labor market stability and bring inflation back to the FOMC's long-term target of 2% [1][3]. - Williams expressed an optimistic economic outlook, projecting GDP growth for the year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing and then declining in subsequent years [2][5]. Group 2: Inflation and Employment - He noted that inflation pressures are expected to peak between 2.75% and 3% in the first half of the year, before declining to 2.5% for the remainder of the year [2][5]. - Williams emphasized the importance of returning inflation to the 2% target without causing excessive risks to the labor market, highlighting increased downside risks to employment as the labor market cools [1][4]. - The recent reduction in short-term borrowing costs was driven by policymakers attempting to balance a weak labor market with inflation still above the 2% target [4].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market saw a slight increase, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones indices reaching historical highs, driven by strong performances in technology stocks and Walmart, despite concerns over a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [1][2]. Market Dynamics - The Dow Jones increased by 86.13 points (0.17%) to close at 49,590.20 points, the Nasdaq rose by 62.56 points (0.26%) to 23,733.90 points, and the S&P 500 gained 10.99 points (0.16%) to finish at 6,977.27 points [5]. - Among the 11 sectors of the S&P 500, the information technology sector rose by 0.35%, industrials by 0.75%, and materials by 0.73%, while energy and financial sectors fell by 0.66% and 0.8%, respectively [5]. - Consumer discretionary ETFs rose by 1.17%, while financial sector ETFs fell by 0.79% [5]. Company Performances - Walmart's stock surged by 3%, contributing to the support of the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices, and is set to be included in the Nasdaq 100 index on January 20, which is expected to attract billions in passive index fund investments [3][4]. - Major tech stocks mostly rose, with Google A increasing by 1% and surpassing a market capitalization of $4 trillion, while Tesla rose by 0.89% and Apple by 0.34%. However, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta saw declines [6]. - Planet Labs, a space concept stock, surged over 12% after announcing a multi-year agreement with the Swedish Armed Forces [7]. Chinese Stocks - The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose by 4.26%, with Alibaba increasing by over 10%, marking its largest gain since August 29. Other Chinese stocks like Bilibili, Xpeng Motors, and Baidu also saw significant increases [8].

Core Viewpoint - The prices of gold and silver continue to surge, reaching new historical highs, driven by multiple factors including geopolitical tensions, U.S. fiscal risks, and strong demand for safe-haven assets [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Price Movements - On January 12, the main silver contract in Shanghai opened significantly higher at 20,881 CNY/kg, with a peak of 20,950 CNY/kg, marking a 14.07% increase [1] - COMEX silver rose over 6%, reaching 84.52 USD/oz, while London spot silver hit a high of 84.589 USD/oz, with an increase of over 5% [1] - COMEX gold reached 4,612.7 USD/oz, and the Shanghai gold main contract saw a 3.07% rise, both setting new historical highs [1] Group 2: Factors Driving Price Increases - Geopolitical risks are high, enhancing market demand for safe-haven assets like gold and silver [3] - U.S. fiscal risks are increasing due to the Trump administration's economic policies, raising concerns about the sustainability of U.S. debt and diminishing the attractiveness of dollar assets [3][4] - Central banks globally are showing a strong willingness to increase gold reserves due to economic uncertainties [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - In 2025, gold and silver saw substantial inflows, with over 5.5 billion shares of gold ETFs net purchased, and the largest gold ETF in China, Huaan Gold ETF, growing from under 30 billion CNY to over 90 billion CNY [5][6] - As of December 2025, China's central bank held 7.415 million ounces of gold, continuing a 14-month streak of increasing gold reserves [6] - In the first seven trading days of 2026, gold ETFs saw net purchases exceeding 400 million shares, with Huaan Gold ETF approaching 100 billion CNY [6] Group 4: Long-term Outlook - Analysts predict that gold and gold stocks will have significant potential in 2026, driven by ongoing monetary easing and geopolitical factors [7] - The investment logic surrounding gold has shifted from short-term economic indicators to a focus on long-term structural risk hedging [7] - Gold is increasingly viewed as a strategic long-term hedge, enhancing portfolio resilience amid policy uncertainties and fiscal vulnerabilities [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the New York Federal Reserve, Williams, anticipates a healthy U.S. economy by 2026 and suggests there is no reason for interest rate cuts in the short term [1] Group 1: Monetary Policy - The FOMC has shifted monetary policy from a moderately restrictive stance to a level close to neutral, which is conducive to supporting labor market stability and pushing inflation back to the 2% target [1] - It is crucial for the Federal Reserve to bring inflation back to the 2% target while avoiding unnecessary risks to the labor market [1] Group 2: Economic Forecast - Williams projects GDP growth for this year to be between 2.5% and 2.75%, with the unemployment rate stabilizing this year and declining in subsequent years [1] - In terms of inflation, he expects price pressures to peak in the first half of this year between 2.75% and 3%, averaging 2.5% for the year, and returning to 2% by 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - US stock market indices, including the Dow Jones and S&P 500, reached historical highs despite a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell by the US Department of Justice. President Trump has called for a cap on credit card interest rates at 10% [1][7]. Market Performance - The Dow Jones increased by 86.13 points (0.17%) to 49,590.20, the Nasdaq rose by 62.56 points (0.26%) to 23,733.90, and the S&P 500 gained 10.99 points (0.16%) to 6,977.27. During the session, the Dow reached a peak of 49,633.35 and the S&P 500 hit 6,986.33, both marking intraday historical highs [3][9]. - The market opened lower but rebounded, driven by gains in Walmart and certain tech stocks, recovering from a drop of nearly 500 points in the Dow [3][9]. Sector Movements - Bank stocks generally declined, with Citigroup down 3%, JPMorgan and Bank of America each down about 2%, and Capital One falling 6%. This was influenced by Trump's statement that financial institutions failing to comply with the proposed credit card interest rate cap could face legal consequences [10]. - Walmart's stock rose by 2% due to optimism about its inclusion in the popular Invesco QQQ Trust ETF, which tracks the Nasdaq 100 index. This retail giant led gains in the consumer sector, which may benefit from Trump's push to lower credit card rates and rising oil prices [12]. Economic Indicators - Market focus is shifting towards the upcoming Consumer Price Index (CPI) data, with expectations that it may come in below 3%. Analysts suggest that the overall economic growth is strong, contributing to positive market sentiment [5][11]. - There is a general expectation that the Federal Reserve will pause further interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting to assess inflation trends and economic developments [11]. Analyst Insights - Rob Williams, Chief Investment Strategist at Sage, downplayed the significance of the investigation into Powell, suggesting it is merely noise and that the focus should remain on economic data [10]. - Jim Lebenthal, Chief Market Strategist at Cerity Partners, indicated that the investigation's impact on interest rates and inflation is likely to be long-term rather than immediate. He noted that favorable market conditions and anticipated strong earnings reports are supporting market growth [11]. Stock Ratings - Palantir's stock rose by 1% following an upgrade from Citigroup, contributing to a positive trend in some tech stocks, including AMD and Oracle [13].

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market continued to decline, with the Dow Jones dropping 187.51 points, or 0.38%, to 49,316.56 points, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also experienced slight declines [1] - Bank stocks, particularly those involved in credit card operations like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase, and Bank of America, fell sharply following President Trump's demand to set a credit card interest rate cap at 10% for one year [1] - Concerns have been raised that Trump's plan to lower credit card interest rates may backfire, potentially limiting bank lending and harming both consumer interests and bank profitability [1] Group 2 - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) rose, indicating increased market fear as traders added hedging positions in response to the investigation of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell [2] - Powell confirmed that federal prosecutors are investigating his testimony regarding the Fed's office renovation project, framing it as another attempt by Trump to influence monetary policy [2] - Market reactions suggest that the independence of the Federal Reserve is a significant concern, with traders instinctively selling off assets in response to news that could undermine this independence [2] Group 3 - It is widely expected that the Federal Reserve will pause further interest rate cuts in its upcoming meeting, as it assesses inflation and economic trends for the new year [3] - Gold prices surged by 2% as investors sought to hedge against the risks associated with a politically influenced Federal Reserve [3] - The ongoing struggle over central bank independence coincides with the stock market reaching historical highs, with the S&P 500 and Dow Jones both setting record highs recently [3]

Core Viewpoint - The ICE US Dollar Index has entered a downward trend, breaking key support levels and ending a previous streak of gains, indicating short-term pressure on the dollar [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Monetary Policy - The recent Federal Reserve meeting saw a significant number of dissenting votes, highlighting deep internal divisions among committee members regarding interest rate policy [1] - There are two opposing factions within the dissenting group: one advocating for maintaining rates to prevent sticky inflation, while the other supports larger rate cuts to address weak employment [1] - The divergence in opinions among committee members has led to decreased predictability in policy, undermining market confidence in the dollar [1] Group 2: Global Central Bank Policies - Central bank policies among major economies are increasingly diverging, exerting continuous pressure on the dollar [1] - The Federal Reserve has initiated a rate-cutting cycle, but the pace of future cuts remains uncertain; the European Central Bank has paused cuts, while the Bank of Japan is gradually increasing rates [1] - This lack of coordinated policy among central banks disrupts the previous supportive environment for the dollar, making it difficult for the currency to rely on a single easing cycle for sustained support [1] Group 3: Economic Indicators and Market Reactions - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "growth and employment temperature gap," with GDP growth expectations being raised while non-farm employment data remains weak [1] - The Federal Reserve is adopting a "wait-and-see" approach, planning to pause rate cuts in the short term, which further amplifies market volatility due to policy uncertainty [1] - Following the dollar's decline, non-U.S. currencies have strengthened, gold prices have surged, and U.S. Treasury yields have slightly decreased, indicating a shift towards safe-haven assets [2] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - In the short term, the dollar index needs to be monitored closely for key moving average support levels, with potential for further declines if these are breached [2] - The long-term outlook for the dollar index will hinge on the pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts and the policy direction of the new chairperson, with predictions suggesting a "steady then weak" trend for the year [2] - There are three major risk variables to watch: potential inflation resurgence, geopolitical conflicts, and financial market turbulence, which could alter the rate-cutting path and lead to significant adjustments in the dollar index and global market volatility [2]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the ongoing turmoil in Iran, particularly focusing on the impact of recent protests and internet shutdowns on the local population and foreign nationals, including Chinese citizens. It emphasizes the challenges faced by ordinary Iranians due to economic instability and the effects of international sanctions. Group 1: Protests and Communication Disruptions - Protests initiated by Tehran merchants due to the devaluation of the Iranian rial have spread to over 17 provinces, marking the largest nationwide demonstrations since 2022 [2] - The Iranian government has implemented severe internet restrictions to control the protests, leading to significant communication disruptions for both locals and foreigners [8] - Despite the communication challenges, some individuals have managed to contact their families through limited internal networks, alleviating concerns about their safety [9] Group 2: Economic Conditions - The Iranian rial has depreciated by 95% over the past decade, with the exchange rate plummeting from approximately 1:4000 to 1:6022 against the Chinese yuan [11] - Official inflation in Iran stands at 42.2%, with food prices soaring by 72%, while wages have stagnated, making daily life increasingly difficult for the populace [11] - Many Iranians are living in dire conditions, with reports of individuals sharing cramped living spaces and earning as little as 600 yuan per month, which is insufficient to cover basic living expenses [14] Group 3: Impact on Businesses - The hotel business, which primarily serves Chinese nationals, has seen over 20 booking cancellations due to the unrest, with clients facing significant financial losses from missed participation in trade exhibitions [10] - The economic disparity is evident, as wealthier areas of Tehran contrast sharply with impoverished neighborhoods, where many residents struggle to meet basic needs [13]