欧元兑美元在日线图上逼近1.1750附近的趋势线阻力，此处可能吸引空头入场，目标看向1.1575支撑 位。若成功突破，则可能开启新一轮上涨。在4小时图上，上行动能有所减弱，价格或在1.1600支撑位 与趋势线之间盘整。 周二（8月26日）亚盘早盘，欧元兑美元上涨，目前交投于1.16附近，截止北京时间10:45分，欧元兑美 元报价1.1632，涨幅0.15%，上一交易日欧元兑美元收盘为1.1615。欧元区7月CPI数据与初值一致，整 体通胀率同比维持在2.0%，符合预期。 核心通胀环比下降0.2%，同比涨幅为2.3%，显示通胀粘性并未出现明显加速迹象。这一数据在一定程 度上缓解了市场对通胀再度抬头的担忧，也使得投资者对欧洲央行短期内进一步采取紧缩政策的预期维 持在相对温和的水平。欧洲央行行长拉加德稍早在日内瓦发表讲话，她指出，尽管近期达成的多项经贸 协议有助于稳定外部环境，但并未完全消除全球经济面临的不确定性。与此同时，她对今年第四季度的 经济增长预期作出了更为谨慎的判断，暗示欧元区可能面临一定的下行压力。不过，拉加德也同时肯 定，今年以来欧元区经济在面对多重冲击时表现出一定的韧性。总体来看，拉加德的发言姿态中 ...

长期逻辑：若9月降息最终落地，黄金中长期吸引力将增强；若通胀反弹或就业意外强劲，美联储可能维持利率不变，黄金短期将承压。 2、关键经济数据：PCE与非农成"试金石" 黄金周一（8月25日）早盘开盘后开始震荡下跌，在跌至3359附近后止跌开始震荡上涨。欧盘在3371-3362区间内反复震荡。美盘上涨3376附近后转跌，尾盘 保持慢跌走势，日线收出一根小阴线。 一、基本面 1、美联储政策：降息预期成关键变量 鲍威尔表态影响：上周五杰克逊霍尔研讨会上，美联储主席鲍威尔指出美国就业市场风险上升、通胀压力仍存，但未敲定具体政策，言论被解读为"鸽派"， 推动芝加哥商品交易所FedWatch工具显示的9月降息概率飙升至84%（一个月前为61.9%），曾支撑金价上涨；但市场后续担忧"数据若不及预期可能导致降 息推迟"，又引发谨慎回调。 周五PCE数据：作为美联储偏好的通胀指标，市场预计核心通胀率将升至2023年底以来最高点2.9%。若数据高于预期，将质疑降息紧迫性，打压金价；若低 于预期，将强化宽松预期，推动金价反弹。 后续非农数据：一周后的8月非农就业报告将进一步影响政策路径，当前美国就业市场已现走弱迹象，7月新建独栋住宅 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank annual meeting indicates the start of a new round of interest - rate cut cycles by the Fed, setting the tone for a rate cut in the September interest - rate meeting [2] - Given the current weak employment data in the US and the limited increase in the consumer price index, there is a possibility of an unexpected 75 - basis - point interest - rate cut by the Fed this year [3] - In the context of the Fed's loose monetary policy expectations, the increase in silver prices will be significantly greater than that of gold, and the gold - silver ratio will be further downwardly adjusted. It is recommended to go long on silver on dips, with the reference operating range for the Shanghai Gold main contract being 770 - 794 yuan/gram and that for the Shanghai Silver main contract being 9135 - 10000 yuan/kilogram [3] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Market Price and Index Data - Shanghai gold rose 0.13% to 779.92 yuan/gram, Shanghai silver rose 0.04% to 9348.00 yuan/kilogram; COMEX gold fell 0.25% to 3409.00 dollars/ounce, COMEX silver fell 0.41% to 38.55 dollars/ounce; the US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.28%, and the US dollar index was 98.44 [2] - Various precious - metal related prices, yields, and index data, such as the prices of Au(T + D), London gold, etc., and changes in bond yields, stock indices, and currency exchange rates are presented in detail in the table [4] 2. Key Data of Gold and Silver - A detailed summary of key gold and silver data, including closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, and their daily changes and historical quantiles for COMEX, LBMA, SHFE, and other markets, is provided [7] 3. Charts and Their Analysis - Multiple charts show the relationships between precious - metal prices and other factors, such as the relationship between COMEX gold prices and the US dollar index, real interest rates, trading volumes, and open interests, as well as the near - far - month structure and internal - external price differences of gold and silver [9][12][17][23][42][54]

Core Viewpoint - Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting signals a potential interest rate cut next month, but upcoming employment and CPI data will be crucial in determining the actual decision [1][3][4] Group 1: Interest Rate Outlook - Powell emphasized the increasing risks from high borrowing costs that could harm the labor market, indicating a possible rate cut as early as September [4] - The futures market currently prices in a 75%-80% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September [3][5] - Despite Powell's strong signals, several Federal Reserve officials caution that the upcoming employment and CPI data will be key in deciding the September rate cut [3][5] Group 2: Market Reactions - Following Powell's remarks, U.S. Treasury and stock markets surged, with the yield spread between 2-year and 30-year Treasury bonds widening to its highest level in nearly four years [3][7] - Investors are favoring short-term U.S. Treasuries in anticipation of a return to accommodative monetary policy, as they are seen to have more certain upside potential compared to long-term bonds [8] Group 3: Inflation Concerns - Concerns about inflation are limiting the gains in long-term bonds, as the market remains cautious about the Fed's ability to manage inflation risks [6][8] - The current inflation rate is closer to 3%, which is above the Fed's target of 2%, raising doubts about the timing of any rate cuts [3][5]

黄金行情分析： 黄金消息面解析：这波强势反弹的关键推手，正是美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克森霍尔央行年会上的重磅讲话。鲍威尔这次表态堪称"及时雨"，不仅有效缓解了 市场对通胀的担忧，更点燃了投资者对9月降息的强烈预期。业内普遍认为，这次鸽派讲话已成为黄金市场的关键转折点，不仅推动金价反弹，还带动美元 走弱和债市调整，为贵金属创造了绝佳的宏观环境。短期我们仍需保持警惕，经济数据波动和地缘政治风险。但不可否认的是，随着降息预期的持续强化， 黄金的投资价值正在显著提升。本周市场将迎来多项重要数据：包括纽约联储主席威廉姆斯在内的多位美联储官员将发表讲话，美国7月耐用品订单、8月消 费者信心指数、二季度GDP修正值、当周初请失业金人数以及7月PCE数据都值得重点关注。 从技术面来看，上周尾盘在鲍威尔讲话的刺激下，黄金走出突破性上涨，日线大阳收高，目前稳稳站在布林中轨之上。按照常规走势，这波多头有望冲击布 林上轨高点3400，上方空间仍然可观。不过，当前金价已从高位小幅回落，并未形成绝对的强势单边行情。因此，即使本周方向明确看涨，也不宜盲目追 高，需警惕可能出现的有力回撤，甚至再次陷入震荡格局。操作上，本周需坚持多头趋势看涨的原 ...

Group 1 - The bond market continues to adjust while the A-share market shows strong performance, indicating an increase in market risk appetite [1][3] - Despite the rising risk appetite, bond funds are frequently resuming large-scale subscriptions, suggesting a potential response to the current market's risk-off sentiment [2][3] - On August 25, the A-share market saw a strong performance with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3883.56 points, up 1.51%, and a total market turnover of 3.18 trillion yuan [4] Group 2 - Pure bond funds performed poorly last week, with average weekly returns for medium to long-term bond funds at -0.13% and short-term bond funds at -0.04% [5] - The overall liquidity in the market has shifted from tight to loose, with a net injection of 12,652 billion yuan by the central bank over the week [5][6] - Analysts suggest that the bond market is likely to remain weak in the short term, influenced by the positive performance of the equity market [6][7] Group 3 - The average weekly returns for various bond funds indicate a significant disparity, with some long-term bond funds achieving returns as high as 45.491% while short-term funds remain much lower [8][9]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing a comprehensive upward trend driven by ample liquidity, with the Shanghai Composite Index approaching 3900 points and a rise of 1.51%, while the ChiNext Index leads with a 3.00% increase. The total trading volume of both markets has unprecedentedly surpassed 30 trillion yuan [1]. Key Sectors - The market leadership has shifted from the previous focus on AI and semiconductor sectors to four core sectors advancing together: 1. AI export chain led by Nvidia showing strong performance 2. AI autonomous chain driven by DeepSeek gaining attention 3. Small metals, precious metals, and non-ferrous metals benefiting from inflation performing well 4. Real estate, consumption, and anti-involution sectors positively impacted by policy support [1]. Performance Analysis - Among the four sectors, the AI export chain and inflation metals chain have shown particularly outstanding performance, with frequent instances of stocks hitting the daily limit. In contrast, the AI autonomous chain and policy chain have underperformed, with the AI autonomous chain even showing signs of retreat, as evidenced by increased stock price volatility for companies like SMIC and Cambricon [1]. Market Sentiment and Fundamentals - The weaker performance of the AI autonomous chain and policy chain is attributed to their less robust internal logic, relying more on market expectations and emotional drivers, making sustained upward momentum challenging. For instance, the AI autonomous chain saw a surge due to DeepSeek's official news, but this emotional rise is unlikely to last due to the lack of substantial breakthroughs in the domestic chip sector and the absence of significant earnings releases [1]. Company-Specific Insights - Discussions around Cambricon are intense, with rumors suggesting potential large-scale procurement from ByteDance, which could lead to significant revenue and profit growth. However, these unverified claims raise skepticism [2]. - The policy chain faces similar challenges, as the new real estate policies in Shanghai have attracted capital attention, but the extent and sustainability of these benefits for the real estate sector and related industries remain uncertain. Without a substantial turnaround in performance, long-term confidence from investors is difficult to establish [3]. Performance Drivers - In contrast, the inflation sector and AI export chain are favored by investors due to continuous earnings growth. Despite significant stock price increases and relatively high valuations, investor confidence in these two sectors remains strong. Earnings are the core driver of the stock market, even in a liquidity-driven bull market. When other sectors are stimulated by favorable news, funds may temporarily flow in, but once the positive news fades, they are likely to return to sectors with strong earnings [3]. Sector Comparisons - For example, leading companies in the AI export chain, such as Shijia Photon, NewEase, and Zhongji Xuchuang, have seen their stock prices soar alongside substantial net profit growth. The overall performance of the optical module industry surpasses that of the PCB industry, primarily due to its higher technical barriers and profit margins [3].

Market Overview - As of August 25, US stock indices showed mixed performance, with the Dow Jones down by 0.41% to 45443.24, the S&P 500 down by 0.15% to 6456.91, and the Nasdaq up by 0.1% to 21518.47 [1][2] - The Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index increased by 1.22% to 8016.96, indicating a positive trend in Chinese tech stocks [2][3] Major Tech Companies - Among the major tech companies, Google (Alphabet) rose by 1.25% to 209.310, Nvidia increased by 0.81% to 179.432, and Apple saw a 0.58% rise to 229.080 [3] - However, Facebook (Meta) experienced a decline of 0.21% to 753.185, indicating mixed performance among the tech giants [3] Chinese Stocks Performance - Notable Chinese stocks such as NetEase and Alibaba saw significant gains, with NetEase up by 6.04% to 217.600 and Alibaba up by 1.86% to 125.230 [5][7] - Pinduoduo's stock showed volatility, initially surging over 10% before stabilizing with a 0.82% increase [7][9] Economic Indicators - Pinduoduo's Q2 revenue growth slowed to 7% year-on-year, totaling 104 billion yuan, while net profit fell by 4% to 30.75 billion yuan, marking a trend of declining growth [9] - The US economy faces inflation challenges, with the core CPI rising consistently from January to July, indicating persistent inflationary pressures [19] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of interest rate cuts in the coming months, despite ongoing inflation risks [16][17] - Powell emphasized the need for action due to a softening job market, suggesting that the Fed may not rely solely on data for future policy decisions [17][18] Retail Sector Concerns - Major retailers like Walmart and Target are beginning to feel the impact of tariff costs, with Walmart considering price increases and Target lowering its revenue forecast [21] - The Las Vegas tourism sector has seen a decline in visitor numbers, reflecting broader economic concerns [21] Technology Sector Trends - The performance of the "Big Seven" tech companies shows signs of fatigue, with stock price changes indicating investor caution [22] - The upcoming US non-farm payroll report is anticipated to be a critical indicator for market sentiment and potential Fed actions [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a cautious investment stance on the consumer sector, particularly highlighting concerns over low-income consumer behavior and the impact of tariffs on essential goods [4]. Core Insights - The consumer confidence index has declined, with the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 58.6 in August from 61.7 in July, marking a 5% decrease and falling below market expectations [7]. - Retail sales data remains resilient, with July retail sales reaching $726.28 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [7]. - Inflation remains moderate, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising 0.2% month-on-month and 2.7% year-on-year in July, slightly below expectations [9]. - Employment data shows a significant downward revision, with only 73,000 non-farm jobs added in July, far below the expected 110,000 [14]. Macroeconomic Overview - Consumer confidence has weakened, with inflation concerns rising. The short-term inflation expectation increased from 4.5% to 4.9% [7]. - Retail sales growth is dependent on policy incentives and promotional activities, while consumer concerns about prices and unemployment persist [7]. - The CPI is influenced by declining energy prices and initial tariff effects, with core CPI reaching 3.1%, the highest this year [9]. Essential Consumption Insights - Beverage sales show marginal weakness, while tobacco data has rebounded. Alcohol and dairy sectors continue to exhibit weakness [27]. - Alcohol retail sales in June were $5.95 billion, down 3.3% year-on-year, indicating limited resilience in sales [27]. - Dairy product shipments totaled $13.61 billion in June, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, reflecting a relatively flat performance [31]. - Tobacco shipments reached $6.05 billion in June, up 7.3% year-on-year, with a CPI increase of 6.5% [33]. Discretionary Consumption Insights - Restaurant and department store sales show marginal weakness, while clothing sales have improved [35]. - Restaurant retail sales in July were $98.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.6%, but a month-on-month decline of 0.4% [35]. - Department store sales reached $77.39 billion in July, up 2.3% year-on-year, but still below overall retail sales growth [38]. - Clothing retail sales in July were $26.63 billion, up 5.0% year-on-year, with expectations of price increases due to tariffs [40]. Market Performance and Valuation - The discretionary consumption sector performed well, with an 8.2% increase, while the essential consumption sector declined by 1.7% [4]. - The essential consumption ETF saw a net inflow of $120 million, while the non-essential consumption ETF experienced a net outflow of $650 million [4]. - The median valuation for leading food and beverage companies in the U.S. stock market was 24x at the end of July, indicating a relatively high valuation level [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, the bond market rebounded, the main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, most convertible bond issues rose, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined, and yields of 10-year government bonds of major European economies generally increased [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs I. Bond Market News - **Domestic News** - The State Administration of Foreign Exchange launched a pilot program for green foreign debt business in 16 provinces and municipalities, aiming to expand the cross - border financing scale of enterprises investing in green development or low - carbon transformation projects and improve the facilitation of green foreign debt business [3]. - The Ministry of Finance answered questions on regulating the construction and operation of government - social capital cooperation (PPP) stock projects, focusing on ensuring the completion of ongoing projects [3]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority announced that the Ministry of Finance will issue RMB government bonds in Hong Kong, with a total value of RMB 125 billion [4]. - **International News** - The preliminary value of the US Markit Manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, reaching a three - year high, while the preliminary value of the Services PMI was 55.4, a two - month low. The preliminary value of the Composite PMI was 55.4, a nine - month high. The price index reached a three - year high [5]. - The US labor market cooled significantly, with the number of initial jobless claims unexpectedly increasing by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June 20 [6]. - Two Fed officials suggested that there may be no interest rate cut in September [7]. - **Commodities** - On August 21, international crude oil futures prices rose, with WTI October crude futures up 1.29% to $63.52 per barrel and Brent October crude futures up 1.24% to $67.67 per barrel. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.2% to $3381.6 per ounce, and NYMEX natural gas prices rose 1.59% to $2.807 per ounce [8]. II. Liquidity Situation - **Open Market Operations** - On August 21, the central bank conducted 7 - day reverse repurchase operations worth 253 billion yuan at a fixed interest rate of 1.40%. With 128.7 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, the net capital injection was 124.3 billion yuan [10]. - **Funding Rates** - On August 21, the liquidity situation eased, and major repurchase rates declined. DR001 fell 0.99bp to 1.464%, and DR007 fell 5.40bp to 1.514% [11]. III. Bond Market Dynamics - **Interest - Bearing Bonds** - **Spot Bond Yield Trends** - On August 21, the bond market rebounded. As of 20:00, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond active issue 250011 fell 1.90bp to 1.7610%, and the yield of the 10 - year China Development Bank bond active issue 250210 fell 3.45bp to 1.8530% [14]. - **Bond Tendering** - Various bonds were tendered on August 21, with different issuance scales, winning yields, and multiples [16]. - **Credit Bonds** - **Secondary Market Transaction Anomalies** - On August 21, the transaction prices of 6 industrial bonds deviated by more than 10%. "H1 Bidi 03" fell more than 33%, while "21 Shanghai Shimao MTN002" rose more than 17% [17]. - **Credit Bond Events** - Multiple companies announced events such as being listed as被执行人, failing to repay loans, and delaying the disclosure of semi - annual reports [19]. - **Convertible Bonds** - **Equity and Convertible Bond Indices** - On August 21, the A - share market fluctuated, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index falling 0.06% and 0.46% respectively. The main indices of the convertible bond market closed higher, with the CSI Convertible Bond Index, Shanghai Convertible Bond Index, and Shenzhen Convertible Bond Index rising 0.42%, 0.31%, and 0.58% respectively [19]. - **Convertible Bond Tracking** - Some convertible bonds announced events such as approaching the conditions for downward revision of conversion prices and early redemption [25]. - **Overseas Bond Markets** - **US Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of US Treasuries across maturities generally declined. The 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 3.74%, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 1bp to 4.29% [23]. - **European Bond Market** - On August 21, yields of 10 - year government bonds of major European economies generally increased. The yield of the 10 - year German government bond rose 3bp to 2.75%, and yields of 10 - year government bonds of France, Italy, Spain, and the UK rose 5bp, 6bp, 4bp, and 6bp respectively [27].