Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of establishing a scientific investment system, strict discipline, and risk control to significantly reduce the probability of losses and achieve long-term stable returns Group 1: Investment Philosophy - Acknowledgment of market unpredictability is crucial for investors [1] - Investment should be distinguished from speculation, focusing on the intrinsic value of companies [1] - Understanding the essence of risk is vital, where the real risk lies in permanent loss of capital rather than market volatility [1] Group 2: Building a Robust Investment System - Asset allocation should avoid putting all eggs in one basket [2] - Stock selection should focus on "three good" companies, emphasizing quality [2] - Trading discipline is essential, prioritizing buying at a good price over merely buying good stocks [2] Group 3: Strategies for Ordinary Investors - Index fund dollar-cost averaging can help smooth out market volatility over time [3] - High dividend strategies provide a safety net during market fluctuations [3] Group 4: Risk Control Principles - Implementing stop-loss measures is critical to cut losses and let profits run [4] - Position management should ensure that there is always available capital for opportunities [4] - Avoiding common investment mistakes, such as using leverage or chasing hot stocks, is essential for long-term success [4] Group 5: Trading Behavior and Performance - Retail investors in A-shares trade significantly more than institutional investors, leading to higher transaction costs and lower returns [5] - Long-term holding strategies improve success rates, with a notable increase in winning probabilities for investments held over three years [5] Group 6: Conclusion and Long-term Perspective - The article concludes that true success in the stock market comes from controlling drawdowns and compounding returns over time [5] - Emphasizing the importance of capital preservation over short-term gains is crucial for sustained investment success [5]

Group 1 - The central bank's reduction of the LPR rate and major banks lowering deposit rates have made high-dividend assets more valuable, leading investors to pay higher prices for them [1][2] - The decrease in deposit rates compresses the yield space for traditional savings, prompting investors to reassess their asset allocation and seek more attractive investment channels [1][2] - High-dividend assets are appealing due to their relatively high dividend returns, which become particularly valuable when other low-risk investment products fail to compete [1][2] Group 2 - The increase in high-dividend asset value results in higher comparative returns for shareholders, enhancing both capital appreciation and stable cash flow from dividends [2] - Investment in high-dividend assets supports quality enterprises in the real economy, promoting optimal resource allocation and healthy economic development [2] - Investors are advised to conduct thorough research on target companies' fundamentals, industry outlook, and dividend policies to select those with long-term investment value [2][3] Group 3 - Investors lacking financial analysis skills may consider buying related ETFs, such as the CSI 300 ETF or the SSE 50 ETF, as alternatives to directly purchasing high-dividend assets [3] - The reduction in deposit rates presents new opportunities for high-dividend assets, highlighting their value in the current financial environment [3]

LPR年内首次下行 据中国人民银行授权全国银行间同业拆借中心公布，2025年5月20日贷款市场报价利率（LPR）为 ：1年期LPR为3.0%，5年期以上LPR为3.5%。均较上期下 行10个基点。 回顾过去上一次LPR下调是在2024年10月，彼时1年期LPR和5年期以上LPR均下调25个基点。此后，央行连续六个月按兵不动。而本轮LPR下行也是年内首 次。但市场对此似乎早有预期，今年以来，央行已多次表态要择机"降准降息" 。 1年期与5年期LPR走势统计 数据来源：Wind 数据区间：2022.1.20-2025.05.20 六大行迅速行动，1年期定存利率下破1% 就在LPR下调的消息公布不就，包括中国工商银行、农业银行、建设银行、中国银行、交通银行、招商银行在内的六大行，均下调了活期存款、整存整取、 零存整取等多种人民币存款利率。 其中，三年和五年定存最大降幅为25个基点（bp），活期存款下调幅度最小，从0.1%下调至0.05%，降幅5bp；整存整取中，三个月至两年期降幅为15个 bp，三年和五年降幅为25bp；零存整取中，一年、三年和五年降幅均为15个bp。至此六大行一年期定期存款利率下破1%。 数据来源 ...

如何寻找不确定时代中的确定性 袁航以"不变"应"万变"的投资之道 不追热点，风格不漂移 在近年极致分化的市场环境中，袁航始终保持风格不漂移，避免追逐短期热点。 鹏华策略优选这只产品就是一个典型的例子——换手率很低，一般仅个股发生基本面异常时才会换仓。 以招商银行为例，不仅早在2015年接管以来就进行了布局，至今已在基金组合里重仓持有了19个季度， 并且自2021年起连续多个季度位列前三大重仓股，期间股价累计涨幅超40%。从2024年四季报来看，前 十大重仓股中有9只都持有超过了2年，平均每只个股持有15.7个季度。这种低换手率的长期持有，不仅 降低了交易成本，更通过企业内在价值的提升实现复利增长。即便在2024年基金短期表现承压时，袁航 仍坚持布局消费品和制造业，未因市场情绪动摇策略。 持仓受益于当前市场风格，低估值、高股息策略追求筑造安全垫 2025年全球市场面临贸易摩擦升级、流动性收紧等挑战，A股防御属性凸显。鹏华策略优选的配置方向 与当前环境高度契合：高股息资产（如银行、消费）提供稳定现金流；内需驱动型产业（如食品饮料、 家电）受益于国内消费复苏政策；低估值标的在避险情绪中更具吸引力。 在全球经济复苏放 ...

近日，作为平安人寿资金受托方，平安资管通过竞价交易方式先后买入邮储银行（601658）H股和农业 银行H股，分别达到两家银行H股股本的10%，触发举牌。记者统计发现，2025年以来，险资机构已经 发布15次举牌公告。相比往年，今年险资举牌节奏更加频繁。部分险资机构并未止步于最低5%的举牌 线，而是在首次举牌后选择继续增持，甚至突破10%的举牌线。市场人士认为，险资频频举牌，主要是 基于会计处理考虑，通过将举牌标的纳入FVOCI(以公允价值计量且其变动计入其他综合收益)资产计 量，减少对利润波动影响；此外，利率下行导致净投资收益率承压，也倒逼险资机构增加高股息权益资 产配置。(上海证券报) ...

汇报年报一季报后港股红利股票池更新汇报 20250519 摘要 • 嘉里太古股份等公司财务稳健，负债率低，持续分红。基泰建设在新项目 运营后提升股息支付率。乡林建设受益于金林华庭项目销售超预期，现金 流改善，增强派息确定性。太古地产虽受写字楼市场影响，但盈利能力和 现金流仍有保障，低杠杆支持派息。 • 国企央企物管公司如华润万象、优胜服务等财务状况良好，多为净现金状 态，派息率高。华润万象去年常规加特别派息达 100%，优胜服务派息率 约 50%。保利物业、中海物业资质优良，具有性价比，成本管控优化提升 利润率。 • 粤海投资剥离地产开发业务转型为纯公共事业公司，保持 65%派息率，股 息收益率约 6.5%。香港供水业务贡献稳定现金流和利润，公司稳定性与 持续性得到认可，但需关注 2030 年供水业务续约。 • 深圳国际通过物流园土地置换获得住宅项目，土地增值收益可观，采取派 息策略回馈股东。2024 年实现首个地块土地增值并如期派息，全年收益 超 10%，未来 3-4 年持续收益可期。 Q&A 香港本地股在红利股票市场的表现如何？ 香港本地股在红利股票市场表现良好，特别是嘉里建设和泰富地产。尽管宏观 经济环 ...

丁二烯、苯乙烯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向 告 分析师：张伟保 S1050523110001 zhangwb@cfsc.com.cn 联系人：高铭谦 S1050124080006 gaomq@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 2025 年 05 月 19 日 表现 1M 3M 12M 基础化工(申万) 6.2 2.4 -1.6 沪深 300 3.1 -1.3 5.7 市场表现 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 (%) 基础化工 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《基础化工行业周报：天然气、 二甲苯等涨幅居前，建议关注进口 替代、纯内需、高股息等方向》 2025-05-13 2、《基础化工行业周报：硫酸、天 然气等涨幅居前，建议关注进口替 代、纯内需、高股息等方向》2025- 05-06 3、《基础化工行业周报：三氯乙 烯、燃料油等涨幅居前，建议关注 进口替代、纯内需、高股息等方 向》2025-04-28 推荐(维持) 投资要点 ▌ 丁二烯、苯乙烯等涨幅居前，液氯、对硝基氯化苯等跌幅 较大 本周涨幅较大的产品：丁二烯（上海石化，21.98%），苯乙 烯 ...

2025 年 5 月 19 日 后市或仍有震荡，避免盲目追涨杀跌 分析师：惠祥凤 执业证书编号：S0990513100001 电话：0755-83007028 邮箱：huixf@ydzq.sgcc.com.cn 英大证券研究所证券研究报告 每 周 投 资 早 参 其次，外部环境仍有不确定性。虽然中美经贸声明虽远超预期，但并不意味 着关税影响就此终结。事实上，后续关税谈判仍需持续推进，可能还存在诸多变 数。 再次，技术面的压力。3400 点作为前期密集成交区，积累了不少套牢盘，与 此同时，上周三大金融拉升下市场成交额并未明显放大，反映出投资者追涨意愿 不足。 最后，当前市场的核心影响因素在于国内基本面。4 月公布的制造业数据重 回荣枯线下方，而 4 月人民币贷款不及预期，说明国内经济修复不强。尽管关税 有所下调，但目前关税比例依然较高，对经济仍存在一定影响。若后续经济数据 表现平稳，市场有望得到更好提振；但倘若经济数据平淡，市场压力可能依旧存 在。 因此，在"对等关税"利空下跌以及政策干预下的修复性行情之后，市场将 进入传统的业绩"真空期"，缺乏盈利数据指引叠加基本面修复不强，获利盘了结 与观望情绪可能主导短期 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that coal companies are expected to report strong earnings growth for 2021, with profit growth rates of 514%, -125% (turning profitable), 475%, and 62% for various companies, indicating a significant improvement in profitability despite a drop in coal prices due to regulatory measures [1] - The coal price has rebounded significantly, with Qinhuangdao Q5500 thermal coal prices exceeding 1000 yuan/ton, reflecting a 30% increase from the bottom, driven by export restrictions from Indonesia and mandatory inventory replenishment by power plants [1] - The overall economic growth is expected to stabilize, enhancing demand support, which will benefit coal as a primary energy source, alongside a recovery in the coal-coke-steel industry chain [1] Group 2 - High dividends are anticipated to continue, leading to a long-term increase in coal sector valuations, as companies are expected to disclose new shareholder return plans after March 2022 [2] - The capital expenditure in the coal industry has peaked, and with the trend towards "carbon neutrality," capital spending is expected to decline, optimizing the relationship between capital expenditure, cash flow, financials, profits, and dividends [2] - The coal sector is currently at a valuation bottom, with undervalued stocks, and companies with high dividends and those transitioning to green energy are expected to see valuation increases [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is experiencing a valuation recovery supported by multiple favorable factors, leading to improved market sentiment and risk appetite [1][2] - Public fund performance has improved significantly, with average returns for ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds at 3.87% and 4.14% year-to-date as of May 13, respectively, and over 7% for the past year [1] - Key sectors leading the market include aviation, military, and telecommunications, with several funds achieving returns exceeding 10% [1] Group 2 - Fund managers attribute the market's upward momentum to steady economic recovery, improved liquidity expectations, and supportive policies [2][3] - The recent monetary policy adjustments, including reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, have stimulated financing demand, positively impacting the market [3] - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors with relatively low valuations, such as banking, non-bank financials, construction, and home appliances, as well as themes like domestic production, supply clearing, technological advancement, and consumption stimulation [3][4] Group 3 - Recent financial policies are expected to stabilize the market and improve expectations, with a focus on sectors like AI, Hong Kong internet, new consumption, and domestic demand-driven industries [4]