投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 1 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 下跌 | 短线看弱 | 地缘冲突缓和，金价技术压力较 大 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：下跌 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：短线看弱 核心逻辑：昨日金价触底回升，短期市场对短期伊朗和以色列停战的计价较为充分，行 ...

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜早报- 大越期货投资咨询部 : 祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日观点 铜: 1、基本面：冶炼企业有减产动作，废铜政策有所放开，6月份，制造业采购经理指数（PMI）为49.5%， 与上月持平，制造业景气度基本稳定；中性。 2、基差：现货79935，基差65，升水期货；中性。 3、库存：6月30日铜库存减650至90625吨，上期所铜库存较上周减19264吨至81550吨；中性。 4、盘面：收盘价收于20均线上，20均线向上运行；偏多。 5、主力持仓：主力净持仓空，空增；偏空。 6、预期：美联储降息放缓，库存高位去库，美国贸易关税不确定性，地缘扰动仍存，铜价震荡运行为 主. 近期利多利空分析 利多： 利空： 逻辑： 国内政策宽松 和 贸易战升级 风险： 自然灾害 1、俄乌,伊以地缘政治扰动。 2 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 宝城期货原油早报-2025-07-01 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 偏弱运行 | 多空分歧出现，原油震荡偏弱 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：偏弱运行 核心逻辑：由于美国总统特朗普发表评论预示伊朗和以色列冲突将结束，市场交易地缘逻辑弱化。 随后消息传出伊朗和以色列宣布正式停火。这引发投资者大幅调整预期，认为中东地缘因素对于油 价的影响不会进一步激化 ...

能源化工日报 2025-07-01 原油 能源化工组 2025/7/1 原油早评 行情方面：WTI 主力原油期货收跌 0.10 美元，跌幅 0.15%，报 64.97 美元；布伦特主力原油期 货收涨 0.32 美元，涨幅 0.48%，报 67.63 美元；INE 主力原油期货收跌 2.40 元，跌幅 0.48%， 报 498.3 元。 数据方面：中国原油周度数据出炉，原油到港库存去库 0.65 百万桶至 208.07 百万桶，环比 去库 0.31%；汽油商业库存累库 0.68 百万桶至 85.97 百万桶，环比累库 0.79%；柴油商业库 存累库 0.10 百万桶至 98.68 百万桶，环比累库 0.10%；总成品油商业库存累库 0.78 百万桶 至 184.65 百万桶，环比累库 0.42%。 刘洁文 甲醇、尿素分析师 从业资格号：F03097315 交易咨询号：Z0020397 0755-23375134 liujw@wkqh.cn 我们认为当前地缘风险已经逐步释放，油价已经极度偏离宏观与基本面指引。伊朗已展现出缓 解状态，但油价单日跌幅过大，我们认为当前油价已经来到合理区间，空单仍可持有但已不宜 追空。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ukraine's mineral resources, particularly lithium, are central to geopolitical tensions, with the U.S. attempting to secure these resources through controversial agreements, which ultimately failed due to misjudgments of the geopolitical landscape [1][5][10]. Group 1: Geopolitical Context - The U.S. President Trump's attempt to acquire Ukraine's mineral wealth through a contentious mineral agreement in 2025 was a significant miscalculation, as it underestimated the ongoing geopolitical dynamics [1][5]. - Russia's military actions have drastically altered the landscape of Ukraine's mineral resources, with the Russian military successfully taking control of the Shevchenko lithium mine, one of the largest in Europe, thereby undermining U.S. interests [3][9]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The loss of the Shevchenko lithium mine represents a critical blow to Ukraine's economy, potentially leading to its collapse, as these resources are vital for both military and economic stability [9][10]. - The ongoing conflict and the inability of Ukraine to effectively manage its mineral resources under war conditions highlight the futility of the U.S.-Ukraine mineral agreement, which was never realistically achievable [5][12]. Group 3: Strategic Resource Control - Russia's control over the Shevchenko lithium mine is not just a military victory but also a strategic acquisition of essential resources, which will bolster its economy post-conflict [9][13]. - The strategic importance of lithium and other minerals in the context of the global electric vehicle industry elevates their value, making the U.S. attempts to exploit these resources appear as opportunistic and ultimately unsuccessful [7][12].

Global Economic Research 26 June 2025 J P M O R G A N Katherine Marney (1-212) 834-2285 katherine.v.marney@jpmorgan.com J.P. Morgan Securities LLC EM capital flows monitor Dollar, where's my mojo? It's been a rollercoaster ride for the global economy and markets since President Trump took office. We are collectively trying to pick up the pieces and put together an uncertain picture of future US trade and fiscal policies, Fed moves and rising geopolitical risks. Our global team's probability of a US recessio ...

摩根士丹利：随着市场供应充足，以及以色列与伊朗紧张局势缓和后地缘政治风险的减弱，布伦特原油 可能会在明年初回落至每桶60美元左右。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Citigroup expects gold prices to stabilize between $3100 and $3500 per ounce in the third quarter due to easing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and improved global economic growth prospects [1] Group 2 - The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has shown signs of improvement, which is influencing market expectations for gold [1] - Global economic growth outlook is becoming more favorable, contributing to the anticipated price range for gold [1]

受美元走软提振，6月30日国际金价探底回升，尾盘重上3300美元／盎司关口。 当天纽约商品交易所黄金期货市场交投最活跃的2025年8月黄金期价收盘上涨28.9美元，收于每盎司 3315美元，涨幅为0.88%。 早盘电子交易时段，金价一度触及3250.5美元的逾一个月低点。 盘面上看，尽管近期地缘和贸易局势缓和削弱了黄金的避险需求，但从6月整体表现来看，纽约金价仍 较5月末收盘价上涨了0.06%，为连续第六个月收涨，尽管涨幅显著收窄。 在部分分析机构看来，央行购金需求、地缘政治不确定性和货币政策宽松，决定了金价的上行态势仍将 延续。但短期内，市场仍在关注本周美国非农就业数据对美联储降息的指引。 消息面上，美国总统特朗普再度对美联储"发难"。当地时间6月30日，美国总统特朗普在社交媒体发文 表示，"'太迟先生'美联储主席鲍威尔和整个委员会都应该为没有降息感到羞耻。"特朗普先前因美联储 未按自己要求降息而频繁经由社交媒体炮轰鲍威尔，一度威胁要解除其职务。 当天纽约市场成交最活跃的9月白银期货上涨16.5美分，报每盎司36.330美元，涨幅为0.46%。 （文章来源：新华财经） 分析认为，尽管当天美股三大股指集体走高 ...

Group 1 - Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) has announced the acquisition of at least 51% stake in Colombo Dockyard PLC (CDPLC) for approximately $53 million, becoming the largest shareholder [1][2] - The acquisition is seen as strategically significant, allowing MDL to establish a foothold in the Indian Ocean and counter China's growing influence in Sri Lanka [1][2] - The transaction is expected to be completed within four to six months and will involve purchasing shares from CDPLC's major shareholder, Japan's Onomichi Dockyard, and subscribing to new shares [2] Group 2 - MDL is a major manufacturer of submarines and warships for the Indian Navy and views this acquisition as a key step in its internationalization strategy [2] - The strategic location of CDPLC in Colombo Port and its established capabilities are expected to enhance MDL's position as a significant player in South Asia and lay the foundation for becoming a global shipbuilder [2] - Indian media has characterized this acquisition as a proactive measure in the geopolitical competition in the Indo-Pacific region, particularly in response to China's expanding presence in the Indian Ocean [2]