【冠通期货研究报告】 玻璃日报：短期震荡偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 30 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货市场：玻璃主力低开高走，日内走强。120 分钟布林带走开口喇叭， 震荡偏强信号，短线关注 30 均线附近压力。成交量较昨日增 38.9 万手，持仓量 较昨日减 7280 手；日内最高 1090，最低 1046，收盘 1087，（较昨日结算价） 涨 34 元/吨，涨幅 3.23%。 2，现货市场：河北市场出货尚可，企业多存优惠，下游采购仍偏理性，交 投一般；华东市场窄幅整理，近日浙江两条产线放水，对当地价格有支撑，下游 多数散单为主，维持刚需采购；西北市场变化不大，现货成交氛围偏弱；西南市 场多数持稳，个别上调。 3，基差：华北现货价格 1000，基差-87 元/吨。 二、基本面数据 供应方面，截止 12 月 25 日，全国浮法玻璃日均产量为 15.45 万吨，比 18 日-0.39%。全国浮法玻璃产量 108.4 万吨，环比-0.17%，同比-3.06%。行业平均 开工率 73.89%，环比-0.1%；平均产能利用率 77.42%，环比-0.14%。上周广东一 条产线冷修，昨日一条玻璃产线（长兴 ...

Group 1 - The main futures contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) showed weak fluctuations, closing at 21,475 yuan, down 105 yuan, with a decline of 0.49% and an increase in trading volume to 9,685 lots [1] - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 23,700 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan, while other grades like A380, ADC12, ZL102, and ZLD104 also experienced price declines [1] - The macroeconomic environment has seen a significant release of optimistic sentiment in precious metals and non-ferrous sectors, leading to substantial price reductions, while the rebound of the US dollar index and a broad decline in global stock markets further dampened market risk appetite [1] Group 2 - The current price of ADC12 remains firm, providing some support against price declines, while high scrap aluminum prices and tight supply continue to affect the recycled aluminum industry [2] - Alloy plant operating rates have decreased, and with the 2026 subsidy policy phase-out and seasonal demand fluctuations in the automotive sector, alloy demand is expected to weaken [2] - Overall market transactions are primarily driven by essential needs, with limited incremental demand despite some pre-holiday replenishment activities [2]

研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0022803 免责声明 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | 项目类别 | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 22,565.00 | -5.00↓ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 2,751.00 | 0.00 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 主力-连二合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | -105.00 | +5.00↑ 主力-连二合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | -125.00 | -3.00↓ | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 267,707.00 | -21548.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 404,205.00 | +7530.00↑ | | | | LME铝注销仓单(日,吨) | 71,425.00 | 0.00 库存:氧化铝:合计(周,万吨) | 196,972.00 | -594.00↓ | LME电解铝三个月报价（日，美元 ...

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年12月30日 (原油) 周一原油有所反弹，因周末美乌会晤关键问题未解决。乌克兰28日深夜至29日凌晨袭击俄总统普京 位于俄西北部诺夫哥罗德州的官邸,俄方称将予以还击。市场预期短期难以停火,冲突持续将制约 俄原油生产与出口能力。沙特在也门的空袭让供应受干扰的消息持续发酵。她缘冲突消息不断，为 油价带来阶段性地缘溢价。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属大幅回落。近期美联储宽松前景以及地缘风险支撑责金属强势，但资金推动下涨幅过大 风险不断积累，国内外交易所陆续调整保证金和交易限制，短期市场波动率高，谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜伦铜减仓跌至9.6万，整体持仓仍高。跨年时段单边交易以加速度兑现2026年尤其一季度铜精 矿供应紧俏等利多因素。国内沪粤现货贴水幅度扩至330、235元/吨，SMM社库增至21.48万吨。持 有执行价10.4万卖看涨与9.8万买看跌期权组合。 (铝) 原生铅交割品牌炼厂检修延续，SMM铝社库不足2万吨，支撑盘面上行，但电池企业年底盘库，暂停 现货采购3-7天，沪铝于1.75万元/吨附近感受到明显压力。铝价内强外弱，现货进口利润48 ...

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 29, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.68%. The open interest decreased by 3,677 lots to 221,000 lots. The reference price of Baichuan's industrial silicon spot was 9,603 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. The price of the lowest deliverable 421 remained stable at 8,850 yuan/ton, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 135 yuan/ton [2]. - Polysilicon also fluctuated weakly. The main contract 2605 closed at 56,500 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 4.84%. The open interest decreased by 23,500 lots to 95,600 lots. The price of Baichuan's N-type recycled polysilicon material was raised to 52,400 yuan/ton, and the price of the lowest deliverable silicon material was also raised to 52,400 yuan/ton. The spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 4,100 yuan/ton [2]. - Industrial silicon plants in the southwest region cut production again, while those in the northwest had both increases and decreases, with expectations of environmental protection - related production cuts in the future. Due to high - level hedging, the overall inventory pressure of silicon plants was limited. In the short term, industrial silicon continued to follow the logic of cost and production - cut - driven price increases [2]. - Battery cell production was cut and prices were raised again due to the sharp rise in silver prices, and silicon wafer manufacturers significantly raised their quotes. However, the price increase effect at the crystalline silicon end was not good, and several polysilicon material plants reported production cuts in January. Due to the weakening market feedback on state reserves, the re - discussion of the industrial chain profit distribution and downstream production - cut pressure, and the emergence of new warehouse receipt registrations to relieve pressure, the polysilicon futures price gradually corrected downward. There were still risks of capital - side disturbances in the futures market, and investors were advised to be vigilant against short - chasing and focus on the implementation of production cuts by polysilicon material plants [2]. Group 3: Summary of Each Section According to the Table of Contents 1. Research Viewpoints - The research viewpoints section mainly analyzes the price trends of industrial silicon and polysilicon on December 29, 2025, including the changes in futures prices, open interest, and spot prices. It also analyzes the production - cut situation of silicon plants and the reasons for the price fluctuations in the polysilicon market, and provides investment suggestions [2]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 8,880 yuan/ton to 8,715 yuan/ton and the near - month contract dropping from 8,790 yuan/ton to 8,625 yuan/ton. Most of the spot prices of different grades and in different regions remained stable, and the spot changed from a discount to a premium of 135 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The inventory of industrial silicon increased, with the daily warehouse receipt increasing by 480 tons to 9,907 tons, and the social inventory increasing by 6,000 tons to 462,150 tons [3]. - **Polysilicon**: The futures settlement prices of the main and near - month contracts decreased, with the main contract dropping from 58,955 yuan/ton to 56,500 yuan/ton and the near - month contract dropping from 59,500 yuan/ton to 57,750 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different types of polysilicon remained stable, and the spot discount to the main contract narrowed to 4,100 yuan/ton. The inventory of polysilicon increased, with the daily warehouse receipt increasing by 30 tons to 4,000 tons, and the social inventory increasing by 0.2 million tons to 30.8 million tons [3]. - **Organic Silicon**: The prices of most organic silicon products remained stable, except that the price of dimethyl silicone oil increased by 1,000 yuan/ton to 15,200 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Chart Analysis 3.1 Industrial Silicon and Cost - Side Prices - The section may include charts showing the prices of different grades of industrial silicon, grade spreads, regional spreads, electricity prices, silica prices, and refined coal prices, which help to analyze the price trends and cost - side factors of industrial silicon [5][8][10]. 3.2 Downstream Product Prices - It includes charts of the prices of downstream products such as DMC, organic silicon products, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, which help to understand the price trends of the downstream industrial chain of industrial silicon [13][15][17]. 3.3 Inventory - The section presents charts of the futures inventory, weekly industry inventory, and weekly inventory changes of industrial silicon and polysilicon, as well as the weekly inventory of DMC, which helps to monitor the inventory situation of the industrial chain [20][21][23]. 3.4 Cost - Profit - It includes charts of the average cost level, average profit level, weekly cost - profit of industrial silicon, processing industry profit of polysilicon, cost - profit of DMC, and cost - profit of aluminum alloy, which helps to analyze the cost - profit situation of different industries in the industrial chain [25][27][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The price of industrial silicon is expected to maintain a range-bound oscillation, with the upside potential depending on the recovery of downstream demand and inventory depletion progress, and the downside limited by cost support and production cut expectations [3]. - The price of polysilicon is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton, awaiting further clarity on fundamentals. Short - term attention should be paid to new silicon wafer quotes and January production plans; long - term attention should be on the implementation of the purchase and storage policy and inventory depletion progress [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price was weak. The main contract 2605 opened at 8,850 yuan/ton and closed at 8,715 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan/ton (-0.68%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2605 at the close was 221,065 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on December 28, 2025, was 9,907 lots, an increase of 480 lots from the previous day [1]. - The spot price of industrial silicon was basically stable. The price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,200 - 9,300 yuan/ton; 421 silicon was 9,500 - 9,800 yuan/ton. The price of Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 - silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. Silicon prices in various regions were flat, and the price of 97 - silicon was stable [1]. - As of December 25, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 555,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous week [1]. Consumption End - The quoted price of silicone DMC was 13,500 - 13,700 yuan/ton. The weekly production of polysilicon was basically stable, with the planned production in December around 114,000 tons, slightly decreasing from November, and the demand for industrial silicon changed little. The weekly production schedule of organic silicon fluctuated slightly compared to the previous week, with a possible reduction in industrial silicon consumption of about 5,000 tons in December. The operating rate of aluminum - silicon alloy enterprises remained stable, and the regenerative aluminum enterprises in Chongqing that cut production due to air pollution last week maintained the production - cut state. The downstream demand for aluminum alloy showed marginal weakness, and the subsequent operating rate was expected to be stable with a weakening trend [2]. Strategy - Spot prices are basically stable. After production cuts in the southwest, the supply - demand pattern may improve, but the inventory accumulation pattern remains. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [3]. Polysilicon Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2605 of polysilicon futures oscillated downward, opening at 59,000 yuan/ton and closing at 56,500 yuan/ton, a change of - 4.84% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract was 95,631 lots (119,162 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 69,428 lots [3]. - The spot price of polysilicon weakened slightly. The price of N - type material was 49.80 - 55.00 yuan/kg, and n - type granular silicon was 49.00 - 51.00 yuan/kg. Polysilicon manufacturers' inventory and silicon wafer inventory increased. The latest polysilicon inventory was 303,000 tons, a 3.40% increase; silicon wafer inventory was 21.69 GW, a 0.88% increase. The weekly polysilicon production was 25,300 tons, a 1.20% increase; silicon wafer production was 10.33 GW, a 3.19% decrease [3]. Silicon Wafer, Battery Cell, and Component Prices - Silicon wafer: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafer was 1.25 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.55 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafer was 1.35 yuan/piece [4]. - Battery cell: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery cell was 0.27 yuan/W; PERC210 battery cell was about 0.28 yuan/W; TopconM10 battery cell was about 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon G12 battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; Topcon210RN battery cell was 0.37 yuan/W; HJT210 half - cell battery was 0.37 yuan/W [4][5]. - Component: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.66 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W [5]. Strategy - The polysilicon price is expected to oscillate between 54,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. Short - term range - bound operation is recommended for single - side trading, and there are no recommendations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

化工日报 | 2025-12-30 供应预期增加，PX/PTA减仓回撤 市场要闻与数据 无 市场分析 成本端，俄乌谈判中的细节内容有进一步共识达成，油价再度回撤，地缘消息反复。明年Q1需求淡季，油价的下 行压力依然较大。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN377美元/吨(环比变动+16.00美元/吨）。国内外PX装置平稳运行，依靠目前宽松的MX 供应环境，即使部分工厂重整开工波动，PX负荷依旧能得到有效维持。近期PXN大幅上涨至季节性高位，效益提 升下海外重启计划增多，另外内外盘套利会带来更多进口，供应端存增加预期。明年二季度PX检修计划较多，远 端预期仍较好，同时聚酯开工坚挺下PXN有支撑，但调油无明显起色，当前供应增加和聚酯需求下滑风险逐步显 现，PTA工厂开始卖PX，关注资金动向以及下游聚酯负荷变动。 TA方面，TA主力合约现货基差 -63元/吨 元/吨(环比变动+2元/吨），PTA现货加工费346元/吨（环比变动+32元/吨）， 主力合约盘面加工费336元/吨（环比变动+13元/吨），近端PTA检修较多，聚酯负荷下降但整体减产不如预期,PTA12 月平衡表去库, 1月累库压力尚可，但近期加工费好转下关注装置 ...

纯苯苯乙烯日报 | 2025-12-30 纯苯港口库存进一步加快累积 纯苯与苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯主力基差-109元/吨（+56）。纯苯港口库存30.00万吨（+2.70万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费133美元/ 吨（+5美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加工费127美元/吨（+6美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差179.9美元/吨（-2.0美元/吨）。华东 纯苯现货-M2价差-150元/吨（-5元/吨）。 市场分析 纯苯方面。海外成品油裂差仍偏弱，调油逻辑对芳烃支撑有限，纯苯美韩价差或逐步见顶。国内纯苯到港有所回 升，下游提货淡季进一步走弱，港口库存继续加快累积至高位。苯乙烯、苯胺开工底部略有回升，CPL开工仍维持 同期低位，苯酚、己二酸开工尚可。而纯苯加工费维持低位背景下，国内纯苯开工仍低。 苯乙烯方面，周初苯乙烯港口库存仍变化不大，原累库周期继续往后延，一方面是渤化短期检修，另一方面是前 期苯乙烯出口签单提振。下游提货淡季仍一般，下游开工小幅反弹，淡季EPS开工有所小幅反弹，PS库存下降后的 开工再度回升，ABS库存压力持续而开工延续低位。 策略 单边：无 基差及跨期：BZ2603-BZ2605逢高 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Views of the Report - The price of soda ash is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The new production capacity of soda ash will be concentrated at the end of the year, which will put pressure on next year. Although the demand side is weak, with the shift of positions, the price is expected to stabilize. [16] - The price of glass is also expected to be volatile and slightly stronger next week. The fundamentals of glass are still weak, but the downward price space is limited after the shift of positions. The supply - side contraction before the Spring Festival will determine the winter storage intensity. [23] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Soda Ash 3.1.1 Supply - This week, the soda ash output was 721,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 14,000 tons (-1.9%). The daily output was about 101,000 - 104,000 tons. The supply decreased due to the production reduction of some plants and increased slightly in Sichuan Hebang. The overall start - up rate decreased. [8] - The theoretical profit of the soda ash joint - alkali method in China was -41 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 16.33%. The theoretical profit of the ammonia - alkali method was -66.70 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.33%. [8] 3.1.2 Demand - This week, the apparent demand for soda ash was 716,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.3%. The apparent demand for heavy soda was 409,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 2.2%), and that for light soda was 307,000 tons (a week - on - week decrease of 15%). [11] - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and that of photovoltaic glass was 88,700 tons, both remaining stable week - on - week. The futures price continued to fall this week, and the mid - stream shipments decreased significantly. [11] 3.1.3 Inventory - The upstream soda ash factory inventory increased to 1.499 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5,000 tons. Among them, the heavy soda inventory decreased by 19,000 tons, and the light soda inventory increased by 24,000 tons. [15] - The mid - stream inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 10.8% to 450,000 tons. The downstream float glass enterprise soda ash inventory increased slightly. [13][15] 3.1.4 Price Forecast - It is expected that the price of soda ash will be stable after the shift of positions and show a volatile and slightly stronger trend next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [16] 3.2 Glass 3.2.1 Supply - The daily output of float glass was 155,000 tons, and there were currently 218 operating production lines. The weekly average profit of float glass with different fuels varied. There are still cold - repair production lines to be implemented this month, and it is expected that the daily melting volume of glass will drop to about 150,000 tons to achieve supply - demand balance. [19] 3.2.2 Demand - The demand side is still weak. The orders of sample processing enterprises decreased week - on - week. The enthusiasm for purchasing goods was still limited due to factors such as tight funds. The industry inventory increased slightly. [22] - As of December 15, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.7 days, a week - on - week decrease of 4.2% and a year - on - year decrease of 22.6%. [22] 3.2.3 Price Forecast - This week, the glass shifted positions to the 05 contract, and the futures price stopped falling and stabilized. After the shift of positions, considering future expectations and supply reduction, the downward price space is limited. It is expected that the price will be volatile and slightly stronger next week. For unilateral trading, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger; for arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see. [23] 3.3 Other Related Data 3.3.1 Soda Ash and Glass Price Data - The spot and futures prices of soda ash and glass, as well as the basis and price spreads, are provided in detail, showing the price changes in different periods. [27][129] 3.3.2 Production and Consumption Structure Data - The production and consumption structures of soda ash and glass in different years are presented, including production capacity, output, and consumption distribution. [62][123][139][171] 3.3.3 Related Industry Data - Data on the production, import and export, and demand of related industries such as photovoltaic glass, light - alkali demand industries (carbonate lithium, etc.), and some beverage industries are provided. [217][225][237][244]