【冠通期货研究报告】 软商品日报：商品普涨，注意压力 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 29 日 棉花：市场有下游纺织厂节前补库支撑，现货走货较为顺畅，但是纺织厂补 库已渐近尾声，后续的需求支撑力度还需考量。从震荡重心上移的表现看，产业 较为看好后续走势，对节后消费提振存在预期。1 月 28 日，配额内（关税 1%） 中等质量进口棉完税成本 12502 元/吨，比国产标准级棉花价格低 3451 元/吨, 较上周扩大 146 元/吨；滑准税进口棉完税成本 13671 元/吨，比国产棉价格低 2282 元/吨，较上周扩大 147 元/吨。国内棉价上涨，内外价差有所扩大。关注 上方一万五关口压力，短期仍然高位调整看待。 白糖：巴西中南部近期气候干旱或影响 2026/27 榨季甘蔗产量预估，受此提 振，ICE 原糖期价盘中短暂向上突破 15 美分/磅整数关口，而在北半球主产国恢 复性增产背景影响下，期价随后小幅回落。 经测算，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算成本 3983 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完 税估算成本为 5059 元/吨；与日照白糖现货价比，配额内巴西糖加工完税估算利 润为 1417 元/吨，配额外巴西糖加工完税估算 ...

Group 1: Report Summary - The main contract LC2605.GFE closed at 164,820 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan/ton from the previous day, showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The spot price of lithium carbonate was 167,880 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from the previous day, also showing an upward trend in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The current basis was 1,380 points, a positive basis (spot premium), weakening 240 points from the previous day, and the basis has weakened overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The registered warehouse receipt volume of lithium carbonate was 30,211 lots, an increase of 245 lots (+0.82%) from the previous day, and the warehouse receipts have increased overall in the past 10 trading days [4]. - The overall industry inventory remained at a relatively low level [4]. Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The main contract closing price of futures was 164,820 yuan/ton, down 1,460 yuan/ton from the previous day and 3,960 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The main contract settlement price was 166,500 yuan/ton, down 3,840 yuan/ton from the previous day and 2,660 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The prices of lithium spodumene concentrates from different regions (Australia, Brazil, Zimbabwe, etc.) showed various changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6]. - The price of domestic 99.5% electric-grade lithium carbonate was 167,880 yuan/ton, down 4,080 yuan/ton from the previous day but up 3,320 yuan/ton from the previous week [6]. - The prices of domestic lithium hydroxide products also had different changes compared to the previous day and the previous week [6]. - The prices of downstream products such as ternary precursors, electrolytes, and lithium hexafluorophosphate also showed various trends [6]. Group 3: Related Charts - Multiple charts showed the price changes of ore, lithium, cathode materials, ternary materials, and other related products, as well as the changes in trading volume, open interest, and registered warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate futures [8][10][16]

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调控趋严、多空博弈，碳酸锂震荡走低 市场分析 新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-01-29 2026-01-28，碳酸锂主力合约2605开于182000元/吨，收于166280元/吨，当日收盘价较昨日结算价变化-3.90%。当 日成交量为473223手，持仓量为410985手，前一交易日持仓量422433手，根据SMM现货报价，目前基差为5960元/ 吨（电碳均价-期货）。当日碳酸锂仓单29966手，较上个交易日变化800手。 碳酸锂现货：根据SMM数据，电池级碳酸锂报价167000-177000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-500元/吨，工业级碳酸 锂报价164000-173000元/吨，较前一交易日变化-500元/吨。6%锂精矿价格2270美元/吨，较前一日变化-15美元/吨。 碳酸锂昨日高开低走，一方面是高点回调，另一方面交易所为维护市场公平秩序，对碳酸锂品种各类违规行为保 持高压态势，一定程度上抑制了行情的急涨急跌。现货方面，由于下游库存水平较低，前期价格持续走高情况下， 现货成交情况较为清淡，但节前存在补库需求，对价格起到一定的支撑作用。 根据SMM最新统计数据，现货库存为108896吨，环比-783 ...

农产品日报 | 2026-01-29 基本面边际缓慢变动，后续需观察备货进程 生猪观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘生猪 2603合约11270元/吨，较前交易日变动-15.00元/吨，幅度-0.13%。现货方面，河南地区 外三元生猪价格12.86元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.26元/公斤，现货基差 LH03+1590，较前交易日变动-245；江苏 地区外三元生猪价格 13.14元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.08元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1870，较前交易日变动-65；四 川地区外三元生猪价格12.58元/公斤，较前交易日变动-0.21元/公斤，现货基差LH03+1310，较前交易日变动-195。 风险 疫病情况 鸡蛋观点 市场要闻与重要数据 据农业农村部监测，1月28日"农产品批发价格200指数"为130.51，比昨天上升0.12个点，"菜篮子"产品批发价格指 数为133.49，比昨天上升0.16个点。全国农产品批发市场猪肉平均价格为18.72元/公斤，比昨天上升0.3%；牛肉66.16 元/公斤，比昨天上升0.2%；羊肉64.12元/公斤，比昨天上升0.8%；鸡蛋8.56元/公斤，比昨天上升0 ...

FICC日报 | 2026-01-29 PA联盟价格逐步修正，主力合约短期走势预计震荡 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基 上海 - 鹿特丹 WEEK6 报价 1295/2070 ， WEEK7 报价 1210/1920 ， WEEK8 报价 1200/1900 ， WEEK9 报价 1200/1900；HPL 2月上半月船期报价1235/2035，2月下半月船期报价1235/2035 MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 2月上半月价格1400/2340，2月下半月船期价格1400/2340；ONE 2月上半月船期报 价1420/2235，2月下半月船期报价1420/2235；HMM上海-鹿特丹2月上半月船期报价1433/2436，2月下半月船期 1433/2436. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹2月份上半月船期价格1459/2493，2月下半月船期报价1459/2493；EMC2月上 半月船期报价1615/2430；OOCL 2月上半月船期价格1455/2430，2月下半月船期报价1480/2430. FICC日报 | 2026-01- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The news that the US informed Israel of its preparations for actions against Iran led to a rise in crude oil prices, driving cost - based increases in pure benzene and styrene [3]. - The pure benzene port inventory rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week. Although the arrival pressure eased, downstream提货 declined. The overall downstream start - up was okay, with non - styrene pure benzene downstream start - up rising, especially aniline start - up which increased significantly due to MDI restart. Domestic pure benzene start - up decreased further, and there are concerns about potential changes in overseas supply [3]. - For styrene, the lowest point of domestic start - up may have passed, with some plants having restart expectations. The port inventory increased for the first time this week. The downstream start - up was still okay, with inventory pressure further relieved [3]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs I. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - period Spread - Figures related to pure benzene basis and inter - period spread include pure benzene main contract basis, pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, and pure benzene consecutive first - contract to consecutive third - contract spread [8][15]. - Figures related to styrene basis and inter - period spread include styrene main contract basis and styrene consecutive first - contract to consecutive third - contract spread [16][19]. II. Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads of Pure Benzene and Styrene - Production profit - related figures include naphtha processing fee, pure benzene FOB Korea - naphtha CFR Japan, styrene non - integrated device production profit [22][24]. - Domestic - foreign spread - related figures include pure benzene FOB US Gulf - FOB Korea, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, pure benzene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, styrene FOB US Gulf - CFR China, styrene FOB Rotterdam - CFR China, pure benzene import profit, and styrene import profit [24][28][34]. III. Inventory and Operating Rates of Pure Benzene and Styrene - For pure benzene, figures show East China port inventory and operating rate [40]. - For styrene, figures cover East China port inventory, operating rate, East China commercial inventory, and factory inventory [43][45]. IV. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Styrene Downstream - Figures include EPS operating rate and production profit, PS operating rate and production profit, ABS operating rate and production profit [53][55][57]. V. Operating Rates and Production Profits of Pure Benzene Downstream - Figures include caprolactam operating rate and production profit, phenol - ketone operating rate and production profit, aniline operating rate and production profit, adipic acid operating rate and production profit, as well as production profits of PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [63][67][75]. 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously buy on dips and hedge for EB2603 and BZ2603 [4]. - Basis and inter - period: No strategy provided [4]. - Cross - variety: No strategy provided [4].

氯碱日报 | 2026-01-29 山东烧碱库存累库速度放缓 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4913元/吨（+2）；华东基差-213元/吨（-2）;华南基差-193元/吨（-2）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4700元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4720元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2855元/吨（+0）；电石利润-23元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-800元/吨（-137）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-49元/吨（+89）；PVC出口利润-5.8美元/吨（-0.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.8万吨（-0.3）；PVC社会库存57.6万吨（+1.5）；PVC电石法开工率80.14%（-0.52%）； PVC乙烯法开工率73.04%（-2.44%）；PVC开工率77.98%（-1.10%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量88.4万吨（-4.2）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1969元/吨（+18）；山东32%液碱基差-97元/吨（-31）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价599元/吨（-4）；山东50%液碱报价10 ...

丙烯日报 | 2026-01-29 供应偏紧存支撑，关注下游需求跟进情况 市场要闻与重要数据 丙烯方面：丙烯主力合约收盘价6281元/吨（+33），丙烯华东现货价6550元/吨（+75），丙烯华北现货价6400元/吨 （-5），丙烯华东基差269元/吨（+42），丙烯山东基差119元/吨（-38）。丙烯开工率71%（-4%），中国丙烯CFR-日 本石脑油CFR257美元/吨（+5），丙烯CFR-1.2丙烷CFR88美元/吨（+5），进口利润-382元/吨（+44），厂内库存38980 吨（-7290）。 丙烯下游方面：PP粉开工率31%（-0.84%），生产利润-220元/吨（+85）；环氧丙烷开工率73%（+1%），生产利润-288 元/吨（-4）；正丁醇开工率87%（+0%），生产利润1040元/吨（+173）；辛醇开工率96%（+2%），生产利润1120元/ 吨（+204）；丙烯酸开工率82%（-1%），生产利润150元/吨（-53）；丙烯腈开工率75%（-3%），生产利润-1025元/ 吨（+106）；酚酮开工率86%（-4%），生产利润-918元/吨（-90）。 市场分析 供应端，PDH装置停车消息 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][3] Core Viewpoints - For cotton, short - term pre - holiday stocking supports cotton prices, but the domestic market faces downstream transmission and internal - external price difference pressures, with prices expected to fluctuate widely. Medium - to - long - term trends depend on the implementation of target price and area - reduction policies [2] - For sugar, short - to - medium - term sugar prices are expected to oscillate and bottom out, with attention on macro - sentiment and capital disturbances [2] - For pulp, despite overseas supply disruptions and rising foreign quotes, the domestic fundamentals improve insufficiently, and pulp prices are expected to continue to oscillate at low levels in the short term [3] Summary by Industry Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 14,940 yuan/ton, up 375 yuan/ton (+2.57%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,618 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,933 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan/ton [1] - Brazilian planting: As of January 24, the 2025/26 cotton planting in Brazil was 60.6% complete, up 24.3 percentage points month - on - month and 14.3 percentage points year - on - year [1] Market Analysis - International: In January, USDA lowered global cotton production and ending stocks, but the global supply - demand pattern is still loose, and US cotton export signing progress is slow. In the long - term, US cotton is in a low - valuation range [1] - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, domestic cotton production increased significantly, and commercial inventories rose seasonally. Before the Spring Festival, there was active stocking, but downstream new orders decreased, and finished - product inventories were high. The annual supply - demand is expected to be balanced, with a possibility of tight inventory at the end of the year [1] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5187 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.37%) from the previous day [2] - Spot: The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5270 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5155 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - Indian quota: India announced a February 2026 domestic sugar sales quota of 2.25 million tons, up 50,000 tons from January [2] Market Analysis - Raw sugar: Brazilian sugar inventory is decreasing, and the first - quarter trade flow is in tight balance, supporting raw sugar prices. In the second quarter, supply will increase. In the long - term, the market expects a decline in the Brazilian sugar - making ratio and a reduction in Thai planting area [2] - Zhengzhou sugar: Guangxi sugar mills are in the peak - pressing period, and the fourth - quarter import supply pressure remains. The annual syrup import volume has decreased. The domestic sugar market is in the inventory - accumulation phase, with limited downward space [2] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5374 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (+0.60%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5400 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4965 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - Market: The import wood pulp spot market price was mainly stable, with only individual price drops [3] Market Analysis - Supply: There were many overseas pulp mill shutdown and maintenance news at the end of 2025, and foreign quotes increased, driving pulp prices to rebound. However, the global wood pulp inventory is still accumulating [3] - Demand: In November, the European port wood pulp inventory decreased month - on - month, but in China, despite a large number of finished - paper production capacity put into operation, the terminal demand was insufficient, and port inventories were at a historical high [3]