1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Various futures products in the energy - chemical industry show different trends, including high - level oscillations, weakening trends, and short - term support. The market is affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - events [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs a. PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term may have a callback due to a sharp decline in overnight oil prices, but the medium - term trend is strong. Aromatic blending oil demand on the cost side supports the valuation, and the domestic device start - up rate reaches a new high [9]. - PTA: It is in a high - level oscillation market. Process fees should be shorted on rallies. Polyester load starts to rebound beyond expectations, but the future inventory accumulation pattern is clear, and the upward space for positive spreads is limited [9]. - MEG: Supply pressure is still large, and the unilateral price is weak. The port inventory will continue to accumulate, and the current price needs to test the cost line of coal - based devices [10]. b. Rubber - It is in an oscillatory operation. The cost support strengthens due to slow raw material supply caused by weather interference in production areas, but the cost side is weak, and the price increase is difficult [12][13]. c. Synthetic Rubber - In the short term, it forms an oscillatory and supported pattern due to a decline in inventory and improved spot trading. In the medium term, the weak operation of butadiene drives the downward movement of synthetic rubber prices [18]. d. Asphalt - The spot market is sluggish, and it is in a weakly oscillatory state. The weekly output decreases slightly, the factory inventory rate increases, and the social inventory rate decreases [19][30]. e. LLDPE - The profit of the monomer link is compressed, and attention should be paid to import pressure. The raw material oil price oscillates, the downstream demand has rigid support, but the mid - and downstream willingness to hold goods weakens after the price decline last week [31][32]. f. PP - The trend is weak. Trade wars, oil prices, high supply, and low profits of downstream processed products jointly form a downward pressure on prices [36]. g. Caustic Soda - The trend is weak. The high - production and high - inventory pattern continues, and the market continues to short the chlor - alkali profit. The demand side is affected by the alumina industry, and the supply pressure increases [41]. h. Pulp - It is in an oscillatory operation. The spot price remains high, and the futures price oscillates at a high level. The market is mainly driven by funds and supply - side expectations, but the downstream demand is weak [44][46]. i. Glass - The original sheet price is stable. The futures price oscillates downward, the spot market price is weakly sorted, and the downstream purchases at low prices [48]. j. Methanol - It is in a short - term oscillatory operation. The fundamental drive is downward due to high domestic supply and pressure on the MTO industry. The cost - side pricing logic weight increases slightly [52][53]. k. Urea - It operates within the valuation range. The domestic fundamental pressure is large, but the downward drive is weakened by policy regulation. The 01 contract has a strong pressure level at 1700 - 1720 yuan/ton and a support level at 1550 - 1560 yuan/ton [55][56]. l. Styrene - It is in a short - term oscillatory state. The contradiction is not significant, and the absolute valuation of pure benzene is low. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [57][58]. m. Soda Ash - The spot market changes little. The comprehensive supply decreases slightly, and the downstream demand is average. It is expected to oscillate steadily in the short term [59]. n. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Demand improvement is limited, and the disk valuation is high. - Propylene: Supply and demand narrow, and there is short - term support [62]. o. PVC - The trend still has pressure. The "alkali - supplementing chlorine" pattern in the profit chain is difficult to sustain, the demand of downstream products related to real estate is weak, and the inventory is high [71]. p. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: It has a sharp decline and is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: It has a short - term retracement, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market remains high [73]. q. Short Fibers and Bottle Chips - Short Fibers: The peak - season demand continues, and it is in a short - term oscillatory market. - Bottle Chips: Supported by upstream products, it is in an oscillatory market [75][76]. r. Offset Printing Paper - It is in a low - level oscillation. The mainstream transaction prices in Shandong and Guangdong markets are stable, the paper mills maintain normal production, and the downstream purchases on a rigid basis [78][81]. s. Pure Benzene - Overseas blending oil starts, and it is mainly in a short - term oscillatory state. The port inventory decreases, and the spot price changes [83][84].

Report Overview - Report Title: Polyolefin Daily Report - Date: November 13, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of polyolefins are expected to remain under pressure. There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the capacity expansion pressure and intensifying the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak, with the seasonal peak of agricultural film production passing, the demand for pipes increasing first and then decreasing, and the downstream's willingness to stock up being low due to fear of price drops [6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market Performance**: The L2601 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated during the session, and closed down at 6,788 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton (-0.09%), with a trading volume of 186,000 lots and an increase in positions by 2,586 lots to 586,919 lots. The PP2601 contract of polypropylene closed at 6,460 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan (-0.11%), with a decrease in positions by 4,959 lots to 636,600 lots. The futures market opened low and fluctuated, the market trading atmosphere changed little, traders mostly offered discounts, and downstream buyers mainly made small - order purchases [5][6] - **Supply and Demand Situation**: There are no new production plans in November, but some maintenance devices will restart, increasing the device operating load and the pressure of new capacity expansion, which intensifies the imbalance between supply and demand. The downstream demand is weak. The agricultural film production has reached a seasonal peak and is declining, the demand for pipes increases first and then decreases, the plastic weaving of PP is boosted by packaging demand, and BOPP enterprises mainly digest inventory. The downstream's low willingness to stock up due to fear of price drops further drags down the transaction price [6] 3.2 Industry News - **Inventory**: On November 12, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 690,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (-2.82%) from the previous working day, compared with 680,000 tons in the same period last year [7] - **PE Market Price**: The prices of LLDPE in some areas decreased. The price range in North China was 6,760 - 7,000 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,900 - 7,400 yuan/ton, and in South China was 7,050 - 7,450 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong market was 5,750 - 5,780 yuan/ton, remaining unchanged from the previous working day. The market was in a supply - demand game, downstream factories mostly waited and watched for rigid demand, producers had a certain intention to stabilize the market, and individual offers had narrow discounts. The overall trading atmosphere was average [7] - **PP Market Price**: Most prices in the PP market fluctuated slightly, and some prices weakened. The mainstream price of North China wire drawing was 6,230 - 6,450 yuan/ton, in East China was 6,320 - 6,600 yuan/ton, and in South China was 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [7] 3.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including L basis, PP basis, L - PP price difference, crude oil futures main contract settlement price, two - oil inventory, and two - oil inventory year - on - year increase/decrease rate, but specific data values are not described in detail in the text [9][13][17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Methanol**: The current situation remains poor. Iranian plant shutdowns are slower than expected, and November is likely to see high imports. The contradiction in the 01 contract is difficult to resolve. The issue of port sanctions is expected to be resolved before the end of gas restrictions, but inventory reduction is difficult. Methanol has limited upside potential, and the downside space depends on the situation in the inland region. Recently, coal prices have strengthened, but it does not affect profits [1]. - **Polyethylene**: The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and coal - chemical industries are reducing inventory, while social inventory remains flat. Downstream inventory of raw materials and finished products is neutral. Overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is around - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for now. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, and other price differentials are fluctuating, with LD weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to LL - HD conversion and US quotations. New device pressure is high in 2025, and the commissioning of new devices should be monitored [6]. - **PP**: The upstream (Sinopec and PetroChina) and mid - stream of polypropylene are reducing inventory. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, non - standard price differentials are neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. Exports have been good this year. Non - standard price differentials are neutral. European and American markets are stable. PDH profit is around - 400, propylene prices are fluctuating, and powder production starts are stable. The proportion of drawing production is neutral. Future supply is expected to increase slightly. Downstream orders are average currently, and raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the 01 contract is expected to face moderately excessive pressure. If exports continue to increase or there are many PDH device overhauls, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [6]. - **PVC**: The basis of the 01 contract is maintained at - 270, and the ex - factory basis is - 480. Downstream operating rates are seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold inventory at low prices is strong. Mid - and upstream inventories are continuously accumulating. In summer, Northwest plants have seasonal overhauls, and the load center is between the spring overhaul and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new plants and the sustainability of exports. Recent export orders have declined slightly. Coal sentiment is positive, and the cost of semi - coke is stable. The profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC overhauls. The FOB counter - offer for caustic soda exports is 380. PVC comprehensive profit is - 100. Currently, the contradiction of static inventory is accumulating slowly, costs are stable, downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and operating rates [6]. 3. Summary by Commodity Methanol - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of thermal coal futures remained at 801. The prices of Jiangsu and South China spot, and other regional converted prices had certain fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price increased from 2088 on November 6th to 2082 on November 12th. The import profit and other indicators also changed slightly [1]. - **View**: The current situation is poor, with high imports expected in November. Inventory reduction is difficult, and the upside of methanol is limited. The downside depends on the inland region, and coal price strengthening does not affect profits [1]. Polyethylene - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 740. The prices of North China LL, East China LL, etc. had certain changes. For example, the East China LL price increased from 6975 on November 6th to 7000 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory decreased from 69 on November 6th to 67 on November 7th and then continued to change [6]. - **View**: The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis varies in different regions. The import profit is around - 200 with no further increase. Non - standard HD injection molding price is stable, and LD is weakening. Domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to various factors such as new device commissioning [6]. PP - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Shandong propylene and Northeast Asian propylene had certain fluctuations. The prices of East China PP, North China PP, etc. also changed. For example, the East China PP price increased from 6320 on November 6th to 6365 on November 12th. The two - oil inventory and other indicators also had corresponding changes [6]. - **View**: The upstream and mid - stream are reducing inventory. The basis, non - standard price differentials, and import profit are in a certain state. Exports are good. Future supply is expected to increase slightly, and attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning and PDH device overhauls [6]. PVC - **Price Data**: From November 6th to 12th, the price of Northwest calcium carbide remained at 2400. The prices of calcium carbide - based PVC in different regions and other indicators had certain changes. For example, the calcium carbide - based PVC price in Northwest decreased from 4320 on November 6th to 4250 on November 11th [6]. - **View**: The basis is at a certain level. Downstream operating rates are weakening, and mid - and upstream inventories are accumulating. Attention should be paid to factors such as new device commissioning, exports, and cost changes [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC shows a weak and volatile trend. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity, while demand is weak with low procurement sentiment. Export orders are declining, and inventory is high, putting pressure on prices. However, future policies need to be monitored [3]. - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight decline. Supply is increasing as maintenance decreases, and demand varies by region and industry. There are inventory differences between Shandong and Jiangsu, and future price support depends on new alumina plant procurement [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 4581 yuan/ton (+9), with an East China basis of -51 yuan/ton (-9) and a South China basis of -11 yuan/ton (-29) [1]. - **Spot Price**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4530 yuan/ton (+0), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 4570 yuan/ton (-20) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The price of semi - coke is 800 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of calcium carbide is 2830 yuan/ton (+0). The calcium carbide profit is - 100 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide - based PVC production gross profit is - 769 yuan/ton (-6), the ethylene - based PVC production gross profit is - 465 yuan/ton (+79), and the PVC export profit is 9.3 dollars/ton (+1.0) [1]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: PVC factory inventory is 33.5 tons (-0.3), social inventory is 54.6 tons (+0.1). The calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate is 80.17% (+3.70%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate is 77.23% (-1.27%), and the overall PVC operating rate is 79.28% (+2.19%) [1]. - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 74.2 tons (-3.2) [1]. Caustic Soda - **Futures Price and Basis**: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2344 yuan/ton (-13), and the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 125 yuan/ton (+13) [1]. - **Spot Price**: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 790 yuan/ton (+0), and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1250 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - **Upstream Production Profit**: The single - variety profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1478 yuan/ton (+0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 854.5 yuan/ton (+0.0), the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is - 17.47 yuan/ton (-10.00), and the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 721.53 yuan/ton (-90.30) [2]. - **Inventory and Operating Rate**: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory is 41.48 tons (-2.78), flake caustic soda factory inventory is 2.90 tons (+0.17), and the caustic soda operating rate is 84.80% (+0.50%) [2]. - **Downstream Operating Rate**: The alumina operating rate is 85.25% (-0.61%), the printing and dyeing operating rate in East China is 68.06% (+0.00%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate is 89.60% (-0.06%) [2]. Market Analysis PVC - Supply: Two new units were under maintenance this week, but new production capacity is gradually being put into production, resulting in an abundant supply [3]. - Demand: Downstream operating rates have decreased, and low - price procurement has improved, but overall procurement sentiment is average [3]. - Export: Exports are based on price - for - volume, and export orders are declining. India's anti - dumping tax is expected to be implemented in November, and an anti - dumping investigation on PVC wallpapers has been launched [3]. - Inventory: Social inventory has slightly increased, and the absolute inventory value is high. PVC futures warehouse receipts are still at a high level, suppressing futures prices [3]. Caustic Soda - Supply: Maintenance of units has decreased, and the operating rate has increased. Attention should be paid to the 100,000 - ton production capacity of Tangshan Sanyou [3]. - Demand: Alumina orders in Shandong are stable, but the alumina operating rate in Hebei has slightly decreased. Non - aluminum demand is mainly for rigid procurement and will weaken in the off - season [3]. - Inventory: There are differences in inventory between Shandong and Jiangsu. Shandong has an overall inventory increase, while Jiangsu has a decrease [3]. - Price: The procurement price of new alumina plants may support prices, and cost support exists due to the increase in Shandong's electricity price in November and the relatively weak liquid chlorine price [3]. Strategy PVC - Single - side: Range - bound and weak, with opportunities for positive cash - and - carry arbitrage [4]. - Inter - period: Wait - and - see [4]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [4]. Caustic Soda - Single - side: Range - bound [5]. - Inter - period: Positive arbitrage for SH12 - 01 at low prices [5]. - Inter - variety: No strategy [5].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The EG market has high supply, with the domestic ethylene glycol load operating at a high level and overseas device changes being limited. The arrival plan around mid - November is still moderately high, and port inventories are expected to gradually rise. Although the polyester downstream has moderately improved with the cooling, the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. - In terms of strategies, for the single - side operation, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell on rallies for hedging. For the inter - period operation, an inverse spread between EG2601 and EG2605 is recommended. There is no cross - variety strategy [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The closing price of the EG main contract was 3891 yuan/ton (up 16 yuan/ton, +0.41% from the previous trading day), the EG spot price in the East China market was 3953 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan/ton, - 0.65% from the previous trading day), and the EG East China spot basis was 62 yuan/ton (down 6 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. Production Profit and Operating Rate - According to Longzhong data, the production profit of ethylene - based EG was - 61 US dollars/ton (down 4 US dollars/ton month - on - month), and the production profit of coal - based syngas EG was - 949 yuan/ton (down 38 yuan/ton month - on - month) [1]. International Spread No relevant content is provided in the given text. Downstream Sales, Production, and Operating Rate - With the recent cooling, the polyester downstream has moderately improved, but the increase in polyester load is limited [1]. Inventory Data - According to CCF data released every Monday, the MEG inventory at the main ports in East China was 66.1 tons (up 9.9 tons month - on - month); according to Longzhong data released every Thursday, it was 56.4 tons (up 6.5 tons month - on - month). The planned arrivals at the main ports in East China this week are 18.1 tons, and at the secondary ports are 4.7 tons, indicating a high planned arrival volume and expected inventory accumulation [1].

Group 1: Apple Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral to bullish [4] Core View - The price of high - quality apples is expected to remain stable and firm, and attention should be paid to the total amount and structure of apple storage this week. The commodity rate of apples this year is low, and the storage volume is lower than the same period last year [3][4] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of Apple 2601 contract yesterday was 9,207 yuan/ton, a change of - 22 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.24%. The price of Shandong Qixia 80 first - and second - grade late Fuji was 3.75 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day. The price of Shaanxi Luochuan 70 semi - commodity late Fuji was 4.15 yuan/jin, with no change from the previous day [1] - **Recent Market Information**: The ground trading of late Fuji in the producing areas is coming to an end, and the western producing areas are gradually shifting to in - warehouse trading. The出库 price of the same quality is firmer than that during the purchase period. It is expected that the price of high - quality goods will remain stable and firm in the short term, and the price of general goods will remain stable. The peak of storage this week may occur [2] - **Market Analysis**: The apple futures price fell slightly yesterday. As the storage enters the later stage, the price of high - quality goods is expected to remain stable and firm. The trading atmosphere in the sales areas is still light, and the demand side is under pressure. The overall出库 price of farmers' goods is about 0.3 yuan higher than that on the ground [3] - **Strategy**: Neutral to bullish. The supply of late Fuji has increased, but the commodity rate this year is low. The storage volume is lower than the same period last year [4] Group 2: Red Dates Report Industry Investment Rating - Neutral [8] Core View - The recent decline of red date futures is obvious, and the market game has increased. The market expectation is relatively pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase price, jujube quality and peak - season consumption [7][8] Summary by Directory - **Market News and Important Data**: The closing price of Red Dates 2601 contract yesterday was 9,365 yuan/ton, a change of - 130 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 1.37%. The spot price of first - grade grey jujubes in Hebei was 9.00 yuan/kg, with no change from the previous day [5] - **Recent Market Information**: The purchase progress in Aksu and Alar regions has accelerated, and the price has slightly loosened. The purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The new - season finished products in Hebei and Guangdong markets have been listed, with a small price adjustment. The purchase enthusiasm of downstream merchants is general [6] - **Market Analysis**: The red date futures price continued to decline yesterday. The raw material purchase in the producing areas is based on quality, and the purchase enthusiasm of enterprises is average. The inventory pressure is large, and the supply - demand contradiction has not been substantially alleviated. The quality of jujubes is better than that of the same period last year. The actual consumption situation in the consumption end will become another focus [7] - **Strategy**: Neutral. The red date futures have declined significantly recently, and the market expectation is pessimistic. Attention should be paid to the changes in purchase price, jujube quality and peak - season consumption [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the pig and egg industries is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Viewpoints - The pig market remains in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and this pattern is difficult to change. The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October are expected to be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there may be a risk of early slaughter if prices decline. The future supply of pigs is still in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will further increase supply pressure [2] - The egg market is currently in a situation where supply exceeds demand, and this pattern is difficult to change in the short - term. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the overall demand remains weak. After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2601 contract yesterday was 11,795 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton or 0.34% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 11.86 yuan/kg, down 0.09 yuan/kg from the previous trading day; in Jiangsu, it was 12.04 yuan/kg, down 0.19 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 11.38 yuan/kg, down 0.05 yuan/kg [1] - Wholesale market: On November 12, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 125.55, down 0.02 points from the previous day. The average wholesale price of pork was 17.89 yuan/kg, down 1.2%; beef was 66.61 yuan/kg, down 0.3%; mutton was 62.46 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; and white - striped chickens were 17.71 yuan/kg, down 0.3% [1] Market Analysis - The secondary fattening pigs entering the market in October may be slaughtered around the Winter Solstice, and there is a risk of early slaughter if prices fall. The future supply of pigs is in an oversupply state, and the subsequent slaughter of secondary fattening pigs will increase supply pressure, making the pattern of strong supply and weak demand difficult to change [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2512 contract yesterday was 3063 yuan/500 kg, down 89 yuan or 2.82% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 2.80 yuan/jin; in Shandong, it was 3.05 yuan/jin; in Hebei, it was 2.76 yuan/jin. The spot basis changed +89 in all three regions [3] - Inventory: On November 12, 2025, the national production - link inventory was 1.08 days, unchanged from the previous day. The circulation - link inventory was 1.37 days, up 0.08 days or 6.20% [3] Market Analysis - After the "Double Eleven" boost, the current consumption demand has returned to the off - season normal level. Although the egg production capacity is slowly being reduced, the short - term pattern of supply exceeding demand remains unchanged [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is characterized by an overall pattern of oscillation and consolidation. The PE market maintains an oscillation and consolidation pattern, while the PP market shows an oscillation and weakening trend in the short - term. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the upward movement is still restricted by supply - demand factors [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,788 yuan/ton (+28), and that of the PP main contract is 6,460 yuan/ton (+31). The spot prices of LL in North China and East China are 6,800 yuan/ton (+0) and 6,850 yuan/ton (+0) respectively. The spot price of PP in East China is 6,480 yuan/ton (-20). The basis of LL in North China and East China is 12 yuan/ton (-28) and 62 yuan/ton (-28) respectively, and the basis of PP in East China is 20 yuan/ton (-51) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 82.6% (+1.7%), and the PP operating rate is 77.8% (+0.7%) [2] - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is 101.2 yuan/ton (-82.1), the PP oil - based production profit is - 488.8 yuan/ton (-82.1), and the PDH - based PP production profit is - 105.8 yuan/ton (+1.9) [2] - **Imports and Exports**: The LL import profit is - 72.5 yuan/ton (+2.5), the PP import profit is - 165.6 yuan/ton (+2.4), and the PP export profit is - 5.7 US dollars/ton (-0.3) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: The operating rate of PE downstream agricultural film is 50.0% (+0.4%), the operating rate of PE downstream packaging film is 50.8% (-0.5%), the operating rate of PP downstream plastic weaving is 44.5% (+0.3%), and the operating rate of PP downstream BOPP film is 62.5% (+0.9%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The pattern of strong supply and weak demand persists. The supply pressure is large due to high operating rates, new capacity releases, and some device restarts. The downstream demand is limited, with the agricultural film's demand expected to shrink and the packaging film's operating rate declining. The cost support from oil prices is weak, and PE is expected to maintain an oscillation and consolidation pattern in the short - term [3] - **PP**: There are still supply - demand contradictions. The cost support has strengthened slightly, but the supply surplus pattern remains. The downstream demand has a slow recovery, and the demand support is limited. PP is expected to continue an oscillation and weakening pattern in the short - term, but the downward drive is also limited [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach; the market may maintain a bottom - oscillation pattern in the short - term [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread**: Consider reverse arbitrage when the L01 - 05 and PP01 - 05 spreads are high [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread**: No relevant strategy provided [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - In the context of a weak supply - demand pattern, the log futures market is expected to continue its weak and volatile operation. The supply of logs is expected to increase this week, and the spot price is declining, putting pressure on the market. However, the current futures price is relatively low, and the significant inversion between domestic and foreign prices provides some support from import costs, limiting the downside space of the futures price [2][3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures Prices**: On November 12, 2025, the prices of log futures contracts showed minor fluctuations. For example, the price of log 2601 was 778.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 2 yuan/cubic meter from the previous day, with a daily increase of 0.26%. The price of log 2603 was 792.5 yuan/cubic meter, up 1 yuan/cubic meter, with a daily increase of 0.13%. The price of log 2605 was 812 yuan/cubic meter, up 1.5 yuan/cubic meter, with a daily increase of 0.19%. The price of log 2511 remained unchanged at 740 yuan/cubic meter [1] - **Spot Prices**: The spot prices of various types of logs in ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained stable on November 12, 2025, with no price changes compared to the previous day. For instance, the price of 3.9A small - sized radiata pine in Rizhao Port was 700 yuan/cubic meter, and the price of 4A small - sized radiata pine in Taicang Port was 710 yuan/cubic meter [1] - **Foreign Quotes**: As of November 14 and November 7, the CFR prices of radiata pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter remained unchanged at 116 US dollars/JAS cubic meter and 126 euros/JAS cubic meter respectively [1] - **Cost Calculation**: On November 12, 2025, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.121 yuan, down 0.003 from the previous day, with a decrease of 0%. The import theoretical cost was 811.82 yuan, down 0.34 yuan from the previous day, with a decrease of 0% [1] 3.2 Supply - **Monthly Supply**: In October 2025, the port throughput was 201.3 million cubic meters, an increase of 24.7 million cubic meters from September, with a growth rate of 13.99%. The number of ships arriving at the port from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased from 46 to 54, with a growth rate of 17.39% [1] - **Weekly Forecast**: From November 10 - 16, 2025, the number of pre - arriving New Zealand log ships at 13 Chinese ports was 12, a decrease of 4 from the previous week, with a week - on - week decrease of 25%. The total arrival volume was about 39.5 million cubic meters, a decrease of 13.6 million cubic meters from the previous week, with a week - on - week decrease of 26% [2] 3.3 Inventory - **Weekly Inventory**: As of November 7, 2025, the total inventory of logs in major Chinese ports was 293 million cubic meters, an increase of 5 million cubic meters from October 31, with a growth rate of 1.74%. In Shandong, the inventory was 191.5 million cubic meters, an increase of 3.2 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 1.70%. In Jiangsu, the inventory was 82.45 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.2 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 0.24% [1][2] 3.4 Demand - **Weekly Demand**: As of November 7, 2025, the daily average log出库 volume in China was 6.63 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.35 million cubic meters from October 31, with a growth rate of 6%. In Shandong, it was 3.79 million cubic meters, an increase of 0.6 million cubic meters, with a growth rate of 19%. In Jiangsu, it was 2.28 million cubic meters, a decrease of 0.15 million cubic meters, with a decrease rate of - 6% [2]

【基本面跟踪】 工业硅、多晶硅基本面数据 多晶硅：关注今日开会信息 张 航 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018008 zhanghang2@gtht.com | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | Si2601收盘价（元/吨） Si2601成交量（手） | 9,195 | 15 | 175 | 390 | | | | Si2601持仓量（手） | 260,536 | -66,238 | -15,660 | 18,983 | | | | | 262,136 | -8,823 | 29,287 | 96,414 | | 工业硅、多晶硅期货市场 | | PS2601收盘价（元/吨） | 53,460 | 1,530 | 105 | - | | | | PS2601成交量（手） | 413,154 | 88,556 | 237,918 | - | | | | PS2601持仓量（手） | 140,617 | 2,149 | 15,555 | - | | | | 工业硅：近月合约对连一价差（元 ...