从"小非农"就业数据爆冷，到华尔街投行集体调整预期，再到香港保险市场突然火爆，这场牵动全球的"利率地震"似乎离普通人越来越 近。 作为普通投资者，我们该如何理解这场风暴？又该如何守护自己的财富？ 美联储降息从来不是孤立事件。历史经验表明，当美国进入降息周期，全球资本会像潮水般寻找出口。 2024年美联储降息后，黄金价格一度突破3050美元/盎司，港股科技股单日涨幅超3%，甚至东南亚国家的房产也成了资金新宠。背后的 逻辑很简单：利率下降时，资金会流向收益更高的地方。 美债与黄金的"跷跷板" 降息预期下，短期美债收益率可能快速下跌，资金会涌入黄金等避险资产。但若降息触发经济衰退担忧，黄金的避险属性又会进一步凸 显——2025年一季度，黄金ETF的全球资金流入量同比激增40%。 股市的分化游戏 科技股因融资成本降低可能受益，但传统周期股却可能因经济预期转弱而承压。更微妙的是，如果降息是因经济恶化而非政策主动调 整，市场可能先涨后跌。 新兴市场的"双刃剑" 港股、A股等市场可能因美元走弱吸引外资流入，但这也取决于国内政策能否同步宽松。 例如，2024年美联储降息后，A股消费电子板块因外资加仓上涨12%，但同期人民币汇 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the context of trade protection, the global economic downward pressure persists. The supply of zinc ore and zinc ingots tends to be loose, while the demand faces insufficient momentum in traditional consumption sectors and a slowdown in the growth rate of emerging consumption sectors. The degree of supply - demand surplus expands. It is expected that the zinc price center will gradually decline under pressure in the second half of the year, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher. If the macro - economy deteriorates significantly, the zinc price may seek support from the mine cost [4][94][96]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Zinc Market Review - In the first half of the year, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc showed a downward trend in the oscillation center. In the first quarter, due to concerns about tariff increases and the strong US dollar, combined with the Spring Festival holiday in China, the zinc price was weak. In March, the price stabilized and rebounded and oscillated around 24,000 yuan/ton. In the second quarter, due to unexpected US tariffs, the zinc price hit a new low in the first half of the year, then stabilized and rebounded. By June 30, the main contract price of Shanghai zinc closed at 22,495 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.96% from the beginning of the year. The London zinc price also showed a downward trend in the oscillation range, closing at 2,741 US dollars/ton on June 30, a decrease of 6.26% from the beginning of the year [8]. 2. Macroeconomic Analysis 2.1 US Situation - In the first half of 2025, the US economy showed signs of a slowdown, with inflation potentially rising in the future. The Fed was cautious about interest rate cuts. In the second half of the year, the continuous impact of Trump's tariff policy will further suppress economic growth. The "Big Beautiful Act" may ease the economic decline to some extent but may also lead to secondary inflation. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates 2 - 3 times to relieve the economic slowdown pressure, and the US dollar index is in a downward channel in the medium - to - long term [11][12]. 2.2 Eurozone Situation - In the first half of 2025, the Eurozone economy showed a mild recovery. The European Central Bank's continuous interest rate cuts stimulated investment and real - estate demand, and net exports increased. Inflation continued to decline. In the second half of the year, the Eurozone economy faces both opportunities and challenges. Although there is still room for interest rate cuts, the threat of tariffs may limit economic growth, and inflation may rebound [13][14]. 2.3 China's Situation - In the first half of 2025, China's economy showed resilience, with stable GDP growth. Policies focused on implementing existing measures. In the second half of the year, the economic growth rate may slow down, with exports, consumption, and manufacturing investment facing challenges. However, infrastructure investment will remain stable, and the annual GDP growth target is still expected to be achieved [16][17]. 3. Zinc Fundamental Analysis 3.1 Zinc Ore Supply - **Global Zinc Concentrate Supply Turns from Tight to Loose**: In 2025, the global zinc concentrate supply increased. Overseas, new projects climbed production smoothly, and some mines resumed production and increased production. In China, although the cumulative output from January to May decreased year - on - year, it is expected to increase in the second half of the year. The annual global increment is expected to be 55 - 600,000 tons [30]. - **Zinc Concentrate Processing Fees Rise Significantly, and Zinc Ore Imports Remain High**: Since the fourth quarter of 2024, processing fees have rebounded. By June 2025, the average monthly domestic and foreign processing fees increased significantly. In the second half of the year, there is still room for growth, but the growth rate may slow down. From January to May 2025, the cumulative zinc concentrate imports increased by 52.5% year - on - year, and it is expected to maintain a high level in the second half of the year [35][36]. 3.2 Refined Zinc Supply - **Overseas Smelters Have a Mixture of Production Cuts and Expansions, and Supply Disruption Risks Remain**: From January to April 2025, the global refined zinc production decreased year - on - year. Overseas smelters had a mixture of production cuts and restarts. Due to high costs, there is a risk of production cuts in overseas smelters [41]. - **Refined Zinc Supply Recovers Strongly from January to June, and the Zinc Ingot Import Window Closes Again**: From January to June 2025, China's refined zinc production increased year - on - year. It is expected to maintain a high level of 550,000 - 600,000 tons per month in the second half of the year. The annual output is expected to reach 6.6 million tons, an increase of 6.84% year - on - year. The import of zinc ingots decreased year - on - year, and it is expected to remain weak in the second half of the year [47][48]. 3.3 Refined Zinc Demand - **Overseas Terminal Consumption Shows a Mixed Picture, and the Medium - to - Long - Term Outlook Is Uncertain**: In the first half of 2025, the global refined zinc demand decreased slightly year - on - year. In the US, the real - estate market was weak, and the auto market may slow down in the second half of the year. In the Eurozone, the real - estate market showed signs of improvement, and the auto market had a mixed performance [57][58][59]. - **Initial - Stage Enterprises' Operating Rates Are Expected to Decline, and Galvanized Steel Exports Remain Strong**: The operating rates of initial - stage enterprises followed the seasonal pattern. In the second half of the year, the operating rates are expected to decline in the third quarter and rebound in the fourth quarter. Galvanized steel exports were strong in the first half of the year but are expected to decline in the third quarter and stabilize in the fourth quarter [72][73]. - **Policy Support Increases, and Terminal Consumption Is Differentiated**: In the traditional consumption sector, infrastructure investment is expected to recover in the second half of the year, the real - estate market will continue to bottom out, the auto market will maintain good momentum, and the home - appliance market will face internal sales slowdown pressure. In the emerging consumption sector, the photovoltaic market may slow down, while the wind - power market is expected to maintain high growth [74][77][83]. 3.4 Inventory - **Overseas Inventory Continues to Decline from a High Level, and Domestic Inventory First Increases and Then Decreases**: In the first half of the year, the LME inventory continued to decline from a high level. In the second half of the year, it is expected to remain at a high level with a narrowing decline. The domestic inventory was at a relatively low level. In the second half of the year, there is still pressure to increase inventory in the third quarter, and it is expected to decline in the fourth quarter [92]. 4. Summary and Outlook - In the second half of the year, the global zinc concentrate supply may accelerate, and the annual increment will exceed 500,000 tons. The supply of refined zinc is expected to remain high, while the demand faces downward risks. Overall, the supply - demand surplus will expand, and the zinc price is expected to decline gradually, ranging from 21,000 to 23,000 yuan/ton, with a pattern of being lower first and then higher [94][96].

Group 1 - Economist Nouriel Roubini predicts that the U.S. core inflation rate will rise to 3.5% by the end of 2025, indicating a slowdown in economic growth and potential recession in the second half of this year [1] - Roubini warns that inflation remains too high, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to shift its policy, as the core personal consumption expenditure index remains stubbornly above target levels [1] - He anticipates a "mild stagflation shock" and expects global trade negotiations to cool down, potentially leading to many countries facing tariffs of around 15% [1] Group 2 - Roubini is the fund manager of the Atlas U.S. Fund (USAF), which aims to protect investors from inflation, economic shocks, and climate instability, currently managing assets of $17 million [2] - Since its launch in November, USAF has risen over 5%, although it has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 index [2] - The fund focuses on stable returns rather than high returns, appealing to investors expecting slow, long-term instability rather than sudden collapse [2] Group 3 - USAF has recently increased its exposure to cybersecurity and defense technology while buying short-term inflation-protected bonds and reducing real estate holdings [3] - Roubini believes that the global economy is gradually moving away from the dollar, with investors preparing for this shift [3] - The fund's portfolio includes gold, short-term U.S. government bonds, and agricultural products, which have shown mixed performance [2][3] Group 4 - Roubini's outlook includes rising inflation, slowing growth, geopolitical uncertainty, and tightening global financial conditions [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite uncertainties in the U.S. economy due to President Trump's tariff policies, the job market remains robust with significant job growth in June [2][4][14] - The U.S. added 147,000 jobs in June, surpassing expectations of 117,500, with the unemployment rate decreasing from 4.2% to 4.1% [2][4] - Job growth was primarily driven by healthcare (+58,600 jobs), leisure and hospitality (+20,000 jobs), and state and local government (+80,000 jobs), while private sector job growth was only 74,000, the lowest since October 2024 [4][5] Group 2 - The labor force participation rate has declined, and the unemployment rate for Black workers rose by 0.8 percentage points to 6.8%, the highest level since January 2022 [5][9] - Average hourly earnings increased by $0.08 (0.2%) to $36.30, with the year-over-year growth rate dropping from 3.9% to 3.7% [5][12] - The report indicates a potential slowdown in labor demand due to rising tariffs and restrictive monetary policies, which may hinder hiring activities [4][11] Group 3 - The job market has shown low turnover rates, with hiring activity at a near ten-year low, suggesting employers are retaining their workers amid economic uncertainty [8][9] - Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased slightly, indicating that layoffs have not accelerated, but finding new jobs remains challenging for many [9][11] - The Federal Reserve is closely monitoring economic data, with expectations of maintaining high interest rates due to concerns over inflation and the impact of tariffs [11][12][14] Group 4 - Wall Street reacted positively to the employment report, with major indices rising, reflecting investor optimism about the resilience of the U.S. economy despite trade policy uncertainties [14] - The strong job report has led to a surge in U.S. Treasury yields and reduced expectations for an imminent rate cut by the Federal Reserve [14]

美联储的困境在于，它必须耐心等待，如果在关税引发的价格压力显现时已经降息，那么它不得不重新 采取激进的加息政策。但是，如果未来通胀并未出现而将利率持续维持在高位，则可能会对美国经济产 生冲击，并损害其劳动力市场。迄今为止，美国物价保持温和状态，价格上涨尚未出现，这让白宫更有 底气要求降息。 随着美国"大而美"税收与支出法案审议的推进，美国白宫在最近几周加大了对美联储及其主席鲍威尔的 抨击。美国总统特朗普要求立即降息，并威胁提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。这让本就受所 谓"对等关税"影响的美联储降息决策进一步政治化，给全球经济带来不确定性。 鲍威尔拒绝白宫提出的降息建议，主要是担心关税导致通胀重新抬头。鲍威尔是特朗普总统在第一任期 内任命的美联储主席，但是，2022年美联储错误判断了通胀形势，没有对物价上涨做出及时的加息决 定。现在，鲍威尔不想重蹈覆辙。这是因为，美国政府加征的关税反映到美国消费价格上可能会有传导 滞后效应，预计会体现在6月、7月和8月的数据之中。 特朗普表示将在未来几个月内提前宣布美联储主席鲍威尔的继任人选。而这可能会被国际投资者解读为 央行失去独立性，美元的信用被大幅削弱。今年以来，美元 ...

施罗德投资表示，虽然有关关税的消息仍然反复不定，但相对于"解放日"，目前的贸易发展局势与其基 本预期一致，即对中国征收30%关税、对其他地区征收10%，使实际关税水平维持在约12%。经济不确 定性持续存在，需密切观察企业将如何应对，但部分经济下行风险已较早前受控。因此，施罗德认为 2025年经济衰退的风险已有所减低。对股市维持正面看法，尤其聚焦美国及欧洲的金融业板块。 施罗德投资整体对各地政府债券维持中性立场。虽然收益率已上升且估值有所改善，但由于美国债务水 平上升及持续的通胀风险，中期而言担忧仍然存在。虽然市场预期与其展望更趋一致，但仍预期美联储 的货币政策放宽幅度、将低于目前市场所反映的水平。美国以外地区的通胀压力相对温和，相比美国国 债，继续看好德国国债的表现。 继续看好黄金作为分散投资组合的作用，并对美元持偏淡立场，主要反映于看好欧元及新兴市场本地货 币债券的表现。 由于现届美国政府政策走向难以预测，市场愈趋重视分散资产配置。投资者普遍持有较多美国资产，在 这情况下，预期风险意识将会提升，促使资金被重新分配，并流出美国市场。 而全球原油供应持续增加，将令市场出现供应过剩，并对2025年油价构成压力，因 ...

Group 1 - The recent weak labor market data has strengthened the case for the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts in the upcoming July policy meeting [1] - The ADP employment report indicated a decrease of 33,000 private sector jobs in June, contrasting sharply with the market expectation of an increase of 98,000 jobs, marking the first wave of layoffs in two years [1] - Analysts are awaiting the non-farm payroll report, which is expected to show an addition of approximately 110,000 jobs, but a significantly lower figure could heighten concerns about economic slowdown and increase the likelihood of Fed action [2] Group 2 - The potential for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is rising due to ongoing signs of weakness in the labor market and increasing global economic uncertainty [2] - The Fed is advised to take proactive measures to mitigate potential economic downturn risks [2]

订阅美国非农动态 +订阅 策略师前瞻非农：坏消息只能是坏消息了 金十数据7月3日讯，新加坡盛宝集团首席投资策略师Charu Chanana：ADP数据无疑提高了今天非农就 业报告的风险。之前可能被解读为"坏消息就是好消息"（数据疲软推动美联储降息），现在可能被单纯 视为坏消息，尤其是如果经济衰退的担忧占据上风的话。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pressure on soft economic data in the U.S. has reached levels that historically prompted the Federal Reserve to consider interest rate cuts, which could benefit the stock market if the timing and scale of policy easing are sufficient to prevent a recession [2][4][7]. Group 1: Economic Data Analysis - Soft data has shown significant downward pressure, with over half of the soft data inputs now classified as "under pressure," while hard data remains stable [4][6][11]. - Historically, soft data pressure has led to Federal Reserve responses, with nearly every instance since the mid-1980s resulting in rate cuts or pauses in rate hikes [7][10]. - The interaction between soft and hard data can create a negative feedback loop, where prolonged weakness in soft data leads to declines in hard data, often culminating in a recession [4][11]. Group 2: Potential Economic Weakness - Two potential weak points in the economy are highlighted: the employment market, where layoffs are increasing, and the real estate sector, which is experiencing a decline in new home sales and building permits [13]. - The stock market's current optimism hinges on the assumption of a "non-recession" scenario, and any shift towards recession could lead to significant declines from current levels [13][16]. - The market anticipates a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, with a 20% probability of a cut in July, although this is considered low given the stability of hard data [13].

Group 1 - The S&P 500 index closed the first half of the year at a historic high, raising concerns among some Wall Street professionals about potential market overheating [2] - Barclays strategist Stefano Pascale warned of "bubble" risks, citing the Barclays stock frenzy indicator, which has returned to early-year peak levels, reminiscent of the meme stock craze and the dot-com bubble [2][3] - The resurgence of SPAC IPOs has been notable, with issuance in 2023 already matching the total for the 2023/24 period [2] - The ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) has seen a significant rebound, surging over 44% in the past three months, second only to the post-COVID spike [2] Group 2 - Benson Durham from Piper Sandler noted that overvaluation is not limited to individual stocks favored by retail investors, but is present across all sectors of the S&P 500 [2] - Despite the current market rally being driven more by liquidity than fundamentals, predicting market bubbles remains challenging, as they often last longer than expected [3] - Economic indicators suggest a potential cooling, with slowing job growth and weakening housing demand, yet the market continues to rise [3] - Stephanie Roth from Wolf Research highlighted that investors may be underestimating economic downturn risks, with the model predicting a less than 5% chance of recession, significantly lower than the historical average of 16% [3]