Core Viewpoint - The book "Sanctions and Economic Warfare" emphasizes the increasing relevance of studying economic sanctions and warfare in the context of globalization and geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the United States [2][3]. Group 1: Globalization and Economic Warfare - The 21st century is characterized as a golden age for the study and practice of economic sanctions and warfare, driven by deepening globalization and complex interdependencies between nations [2]. - The current downward trend in globalization has led to rising international conflicts, yet the degree of interdependence among countries remains high, making sanctions a significant tool in geopolitical strategies [2]. - The ongoing struggle between sanctions and counter-sanctions is expected to disrupt international interdependence and division of labor, potentially limiting the applicability of sanctions in the future [2]. Group 2: China's Strategic Response - The urgency and strategic importance of researching sanctions and economic warfare are particularly pronounced for China, given the escalating political and economic competition with the U.S. [2][3]. - China recognizes the need to defend its political, economic, and strategic interests in the global system, necessitating the development of appropriate foreign policy tools, primarily relying on economic means rather than military or propaganda strategies [2]. Group 3: Theoretical Framework - The authors propose establishing a "Chinese paradigm" for sanctions and economic warfare theory, addressing deficiencies in existing Western frameworks, particularly those from U.S. academia [4][5]. - The critique of U.S. approaches highlights a misunderstanding of the effectiveness of economic sanctions, which often overlook the political motivations behind such policies [5]. - The book aims to build a theoretical system based on China's practical experiences and historical context, emphasizing the unique institutional advantages and strategic culture of China [6]. Group 4: Historical Context and Case Studies - The book includes extensive case studies from various historical contexts, such as ancient Chinese strategies against northern tribes, the Continental System during the Napoleonic Wars, and modern sanctions against Russia amid the Ukraine conflict [5][6]. - These historical examples serve to validate the theoretical propositions and provide insights into the dynamics of sanctions and economic warfare [5].

Group 1 - The 21st century is characterized as a golden age for the study and practice of sanctions and economic warfare [1] - Globalization has led to a complex and asymmetric interdependence among countries, creating favorable conditions for the use of sanctions and economic warfare [2][3] - The effectiveness of sanctions relies on the significant and asymmetric economic interdependence between the sanctioning and target countries [2] Group 2 - The current global environment is marked by a downturn in globalization, characterized by decoupling, protectionism, and rising nationalism [4] - The weaponization of economic interdependence is a significant feature of the post-globalization era, impacting how countries respond to sanctions [4] - The study of how smaller countries can navigate sanctions and avoid becoming collateral damage in great power conflicts is increasingly important [4] Group 3 - For China, the urgency and strategic importance of researching sanctions and economic warfare are evident due to increasing pressures from the U.S. and its allies [5] - China's response to sanctions is a pressing issue in its foreign economic policy, especially as localized sanctions may escalate into broader economic warfare [5] - The need for China to develop appropriate foreign policy tools is highlighted, with a focus on economic means rather than military or propaganda approaches [5] Group 4 - The trade and technology wars initiated by the U.S. during Trump's administration have heightened awareness in China regarding the importance of studying sanctions and economic warfare [6] - The concept of "empire" and the need for China to learn from the U.S. in terms of governance and strategy in economic warfare is emphasized [6] - The establishment of a Chinese paradigm for sanctions and economic warfare theory is deemed feasible due to existing deficiencies in the U.S. academic framework [6][7] Group 5 - The misunderstanding of the "effectiveness" of economic sanctions in U.S. academia is noted, with a call for a broader evaluation that includes both implemented and threatened sanctions [7] - The political motivations behind sanctions are highlighted, suggesting that political power is the ultimate goal rather than mere economic welfare [8] - The interdisciplinary nature of sanctions and economic warfare is acknowledged, requiring an understanding of political, economic, and strategic principles [9] Group 6 - Historical and contemporary case studies of sanctions and economic warfare are presented, covering various significant events and their implications [10] - The impact of the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, on the study of sanctions and economic warfare is discussed [12] - The potential for China to learn from the sanctions strategies employed by the U.S. and Europe against Russia is emphasized, as well as the importance of understanding its own economic vulnerabilities [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings There is no information about the report industry investment ratings in the provided content. Core Views - The report is cautious about the trend of Treasury bond futures but optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and recommends considering going long on stock index futures. It also believes that the long - term bull trend of precious metals may continue and suggests going long on gold futures. For other commodities, it provides specific market analyses and corresponding investment strategies [6][9][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Treasury Bonds - The previous trading day, Treasury bond futures closed down across the board. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 0.36%, 0.12%, 0.08%, and 0.02% respectively. The central bank conducted 128.7 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 32 billion yuan. Given the current macro - economic situation, it is expected that Treasury bond futures will have no trend - based market, and caution is advised [5][6]. Stock Index - The previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. Although the domestic macro - economic recovery momentum is weak, the low valuation of domestic assets and China's economic resilience, along with the warming market sentiment, make the report optimistic about the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets and recommend considering going long on stock index futures [7][9]. Precious Metals - The previous trading day, the gold main contract rose 0.13%, and the silver main contract fell 0.15%. Due to the complex global trade and financial environment, the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends, central bank gold - buying, and the possible Fed rate cut, the long - term bull trend of precious metals may continue, and going long on gold futures is recommended [11]. Steel Products (Thread, Hot - Rolled Coil) - The previous trading day, steel product futures fell significantly. Policy currently dominates the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium - term, the price of finished products will return to the supply - demand logic. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity suppress the price of steel products. The possible steel industry stability - promoting policy is a potential positive factor. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [13]. Iron Ore - The previous trading day, iron ore futures had a significant correction. Policy dominates the market, and the price follows coking coal. The high daily output of molten iron supports the price, but the supply has increased since April. The short - term supply - demand pattern is strong but may weaken in the medium - term. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - The previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures fell sharply due to the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange. Fundamentally, the policy on coal production inspection has reduced the supply. Technically, the short - term adjustment may continue, and investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and manage positions [17]. Ferroalloys - The previous trading day, manganese silicon and silicon iron main contracts fell. The supply of manganese ore has changed, and the cost of ferroalloys has increased. The demand has slightly recovered, but the supply is still high, and the high inventory pressures the market. In the short - term, the supply may be in surplus, and investors can consider long positions at low levels when the spot market falls into losses [19][20]. Crude Oil - The previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward. The CFTC data showed a reduction in net long positions, the Baker Hughes report showed a decrease in the number of oil and gas rigs, and the IEA monthly report raised the supply forecast and lowered the demand forecast. The market focus is on the US - Russia talks, and the short - term outlook is bearish. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [21][22]. Fuel Oil - The previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The Asian fuel oil market had multiple sales transactions. The spread of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil turned to a discount, and the expected large - scale inflow of arbitrage fuel oil and the increase in ARA region inventory are bearish factors. It is recommended to shrink the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [23][24]. Synthetic Rubber - The previous trading day, the synthetic rubber main contract fell. The loss has increased, and the supply has decreased. The macro - sentiment is positive, and the market has stabilized. Investors can pay attention to the opportunity of a rebound after stabilization [25]. Natural Rubber - The previous trading day, the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract fell. The macro - market sentiment has improved, the supply is disturbed by heavy rain, and the cost support has strengthened. The demand has slightly recovered, and the inventory has decreased. It is recommended to consider long positions after a pullback [27]. PVC - The previous trading day, the PVC main contract fell. The supply - demand situation remains oversupplied, but the downward space is limited, and it is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The supply has increased, the demand has decreased, and the profit has improved. The social inventory has increased [29]. Urea - The previous trading day, the urea main contract fell. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the market oscillates. In the medium - term, a bullish view is maintained. The supply is at a high level, and the demand from compound fertilizer production is increasing. The enterprise inventory is lower than expected, and the port inventory is higher than expected [30][31]. PX - The previous trading day, the PX main contract fell. The PXN and PX - MX spreads have adjusted. The supply has slightly increased, and the import has changed. The short - term supply - demand has weakened, the cost and demand support are insufficient, and it is expected to oscillate and adjust. Interval operations are recommended [32]. PTA - The previous trading day, the PTA main contract fell. The supply has slightly increased, the demand has slightly improved but with limited space, the cost support from crude oil is weak, and the processing fee has recovered. It is expected to adjust and correct in the short - term, and interval participation is recommended [33][34]. Ethylene Glycol - The previous trading day, the ethylene glycol main contract fell. The overall supply has increased, the port inventory has accumulated, but the overseas supply may decrease. The short - term supply increase may suppress the market, and interval participation is recommended, paying attention to inventory and import changes [35]. Short - Fiber - The previous trading day, the short - fiber main contract fell. The supply remains at a high level, the demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant. It is expected to oscillate with the cost, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [36][37]. Bottle Chip - The previous trading day, the bottle chip main contract fell. The supply has decreased due to more device overhauls, the demand from the downstream soft - drink industry has increased, and the export has maintained high growth. The market is supported by inventory stability, but the main logic lies in the cost, and it is expected to oscillate with the cost [38]. Soda Ash - The previous trading day, the soda ash main contract fell. The production has increased, the inventory has increased slightly, the supply has shown an upward trend, and the downstream demand is stable. It is expected to oscillate lightly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to cost support and position control [39]. Glass - The previous trading day, the glass main contract fell. The production line is stable, the inventory has increased slightly, the de - stocking speed has slowed down, and the downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to go short in the short - term and pay attention to inventory and trade conditions [40]. Caustic Soda - The previous trading day, the caustic soda main contract rose. The production has increased slightly, the inventory has decreased, and the profit has improved. The use of imported ore may suppress the consumption and price. The market is expected to return to the spot price stability logic [41][42]. Pulp - The previous trading day, the pulp main contract rose. The supply contraction expectation dominates, but the demand improvement is uncertain. The port inventory is at a high level, which pressures the market. The cost support has increased, but the price rebound space is limited [43][44]. Lithium Carbonate - The previous trading day, the lithium carbonate main contract rose. The shutdown of a mining area has raised concerns about mining rights and costs, but the supply - demand surplus pattern remains. The short - term supply impact is limited, and the demand has increased due to the approaching peak season. The trading logic has shifted, and it is recommended to operate with a light position and avoid short - selling against the trend [46]. Copper - The previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The shortage of copper concentrate, the Fed rate - cut expectation, and the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations support the copper price. It is recommended to pay attention to long - position opportunities for the Shanghai copper main contract [48][49][50]. Tin - The previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply is still tight, the market has expectations for the resumption of tin mining in the fourth quarter, the consumption is weak, and the inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the tin price will oscillate [51]. Nickel - The previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply has increased, the demand is weak, the inventory is at a relatively high level, and the market is in an oversupply pattern. It is expected that the nickel price will oscillate [52]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - The previous trading day, soybean meal rose, and soybean oil fell. The USDA report adjusted the soybean planting area, the domestic soybean supply is abundant, the cost has increased, the demand for soybean meal is expected to grow moderately, and the demand for soybean oil is weak. For soybean meal, consider exiting long positions at high levels and then entering long positions at support levels; for soybean oil, consider exiting long positions at high levels [53][54][55]. Palm Oil - The Malaysian palm oil fell. The factors include profit - taking, the possible delay of the B50 policy, the decrease in Indian imports, and the increase in Malaysian inventory. The domestic inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to reduce long positions [56][58]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed fell slightly. The supply of rapeseed in China may be tight due to the anti - dumping investigation on Canadian rapeseed. The inventory of rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil is at different levels. It is recommended to reduce long positions [59][60]. Cotton - The previous trading day, domestic and foreign cotton oscillated. The USDA report showed a decrease in US and global cotton production and inventory. The domestic cotton inventory has decreased, but the textile export is under pressure. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, but the short - term report is positive, and the price is expected to be strong [61][62]. Sugar - The previous trading day, domestic sugar rebounded slightly, and foreign sugar fell. The sugar production in India and Brazil is expected to increase, and the domestic inventory is low but the import is high before October. It is recommended to wait and see [64][65]. Apple - The previous trading day, the apple futures fell slightly. The expected apple production has increased, the inventory has decreased, and the acquisition price of early - maturing apples has dropped. It is recommended to wait and see [67][68][69]. Live Pigs - The previous trading day, the live - pig price was stable with a slight increase. The supply is high, the demand is weak, the inventory of frozen products has increased, and the cost is low. It is recommended to consider an inverse spread strategy [70][72]. Eggs - The previous trading day, the egg price was stable. The egg - laying hen inventory is increasing, the supply is expected to increase in August, the consumption is weak, and the profit is low. It is recommended to gradually take profit on the 9 - 10 inverse spread [73][74]. Corn and Corn Starch - The previous trading day, the corn main contract rose, and the corn starch main contract fell. The corn inventory has decreased, the demand is growing slightly, the supply - demand is approaching balance in the short - term, and the price is supported at a low level. The import may increase, and the new - season corn is expected to be abundant. For corn, consider virtual call options for old - season contracts; for corn starch, it follows the corn market [75][76]. Logs - The previous trading day, the log main contract fell. The expected arrival of logs has decreased significantly, the inventory is at a low level, the demand has increased, and the price has risen. The short - term bullish sentiment is supported [77][79].

中加基金配置周报|国内出口维持韧性，OpenAI发布新一代大模型 重要信息点评 1、据海关统计，7月份，我国货物贸易进出口总值3.91万亿元，同比增长6.7%，增速比6月加快1.5个百 分点，创年内新高。其中，出口2.31万亿元，增长8%；进口1.6万亿元，增长4.8%，连续两个月增长。 前7个月，我国货物贸易进出口总值25.7万亿元，同比增长3.5%。 2、国家统计局发布数据显示，7月CPI环比由上月下降0.1%转为上涨0.4%，同比持平，扣除食品和能源 价格的核心CPI同比上涨0.8%，涨幅连续3个月扩大。7月PPI环比下降0.2%，环比降幅比上月收窄0.2个 百分点，同比下降3.6%，降幅与上月相同。国家统计局解读称，CPI环比涨幅略高于季节性，核心CPI 同比持续回升；CPI同比持平，主要受食品价格较低影响。PPI环比降幅收窄，一是季节性因素叠加国际 贸易环境不确定性影响部分行业价格下降，二是国内市场竞争秩序持续优化带动相关行业价格降幅收 窄。PPI同比降幅与上月相同，一是产业转型升级带动相关行业价格同比回升，二是内需潜力持续释放 拉动部分行业价格同比上涨。 4、国务院办公厅印发《关于逐步推行免费学前 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. - For steel products such as rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. - For iron ore, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. - For coking coal and coke, investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. - For ferroalloys, after a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. - For crude oil, the main contract should be put on hold for the time being [26]. - For fuel oil, the main contract should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. - For synthetic rubber, investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. - For natural rubber, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. - Short - fiber is expected to fluctuate with costs in the short term, and attention should be paid to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [44]. - Bottle chips are expected to fluctuate with costs, and risk control is necessary [45]. - Soda ash is expected to have high - level adjustments in supply, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [46]. - Glass is recommended for short - selling in the short term, and attention should be paid to controlling positions [47]. - Caustic soda is expected to have a stable and narrow - range adjustment in price, and the market will gradually return to the logic of stable spot prices [48][49]. - Pulp is expected to maintain a weak and fluctuating pattern in the short term [51][52]. - Lithium carbonate trading is complex, and it is recommended that non - participants operate with a light position and control risks [53]. - For copper, investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities [55][57]. - Tin is expected to fluctuate [58]. - Nickel is expected to fluctuate [59]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, investors should consider exiting long positions at high levels and then look for long - position opportunities at support levels [60][61]. - For palm oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [62][64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, long - position holders should consider reducing positions [65][66]. - Cotton is expected to be strong in price [67][69]. - Sugar is recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [70][71]. - Apples are recommended for on - the - sidelines observation [73][75]. - For live pigs, an inverse spread strategy is recommended [76][77]. - For eggs, a 9 - 10 inverse spread strategy is recommended [78][79]. - For corn and starch, the near - month contract of corn has support at low levels, and starch follows the corn market [80][81]. - Logs are expected to have some support for bullish sentiment in the short term [82][84]. Summaries by Related Catalogs 1. Treasury Bonds - On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 118.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 20 billion yuan on the day. China's macro - economic data in July showed that M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and M0 increased by 11.8%. The increase in RMB loans in the first seven months was 12.87 trillion yuan, and the increase in RMB deposits was 18.44 trillion yuan. The cumulative increase in social financing scale in the first seven months was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. - The macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the bond market is expected to have no trend - based market, so a cautious attitude is recommended [6][7]. 2. Stock Index - On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed performance. The main contract of CSI 300 Index Futures (IF) rose 1.02%, the main contract of SSE 50 Index Futures (IH) rose 0.35%, the main contract of CSI 500 Index Futures (IC) rose 1.78%, and the main contract of CSI 1000 Index Futures (IM) rose 1.77% [8]. - The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. 3. Precious Metals - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the gold main contract was 777.72, up 0.22%, and the night - session closing price was 777.1; the closing price of the silver main contract was 9,300, up 1.23%, and the night - session closing price was 9318. The US Treasury Secretary speculated that the Fed might cut interest rates, and the global trade and financial environment is complex, which is beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing a new driving force for gold [11]. - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is recommended to consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. 4. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell slightly. The latest price of Tangshan common carbon billet was 3080 yuan/ton, the spot price of Shanghai rebar was 3240 - 3370 yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3490 - 3500 yuan/ton. Policy changes are the main factor affecting the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. In the medium term, the price of finished products is expected to return to the logic of industrial supply and demand. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The steel industry's stable - growth policy may be a positive factor [13][14]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [14][15]. 5. Iron Ore - On the previous trading day, iron ore futures fluctuated and consolidated. The spot price of PB fines at the port was 788 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Super Special fines was 660 yuan/ton. Policy is the main factor affecting the market, and the iron ore price follows the coking coal price. The daily output of hot metal remains above 2.4 million tons, supporting the iron ore price. Although the import volume of iron ore has increased significantly since April, the import volume and domestic output in the first half of the year decreased year - on - year, and the port inventory is lower than last year. The supply - demand pattern is strong in the short term but may weaken in the medium term [16]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [16][17]. 6. Coking Coal and Coke - On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures回调 significantly. On Wednesday night, affected by the position - limit measures of the Dalian Commodity Exchange, the prices of coking coal and coke futures fell sharply. The policy of coal production verification has affected the supply, and some coal mines have stopped production, resulting in a month - on - month decrease in coking coal supply [18][19]. - Investors can pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips and manage positions carefully [19][20]. 7. Ferroalloys - On the previous trading day, the main contract of manganese silicon closed down 0.65% to 6074 yuan/ton, and the main contract of silicon iron closed down 1.02% to 5794 yuan/ton. The spot price of manganese silicon in Tianjin was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of silicon iron in Inner Mongolia was 5450 yuan/ton, unchanged. The shipping volume of manganese ore from Gabon decreased, and the supply of Australian ore increased, with the port manganese ore inventory rising slightly to 4.49 million tons. The output of rebar by sample building material steel mills increased slightly, and the output of ferroalloys continued to rise, but the demand recovery was weak, and the supply was still high. The high inventory of warrants exerts pressure on the spot and futures markets [21]. - After a decline, investors can consider long - position opportunities at low levels when the spot market falls into a loss - making range again [22][23]. 8. Crude Oil - On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated downward, hitting a new low in recent days. The CFTC data showed that speculators reduced their net long positions in US crude oil futures and options. The Baker Hughes report showed that the total number of US oil and gas rigs decreased by 1. The IEA monthly report raised the global oil supply growth forecast and lowered the global oil demand growth forecast, and it is expected that there will be a record - high oil supply surplus next year [24]. - The market focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, and geopolitical risks have eased. The IEA monthly report is negative for crude oil prices. The main contract of crude oil should be put on hold for the time being [25][26]. 9. Fuel Oil - On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, and its trend remained weak. The downstream demand in the Asian fuel oil market continued to be weak, and the expected increase in Western arbitrage inflows pressured the low - sulfur fuel oil market. The supply of high - sulfur fuel oil in Asia was sufficient, and the power plant demand decreased. In the Singapore spot market, the trading was difficult to conclude due to the large gap between buyers' and sellers' quotes [27]. - The main contract of fuel oil should be used to narrow the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oils [28]. 10. Synthetic Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of synthetic rubber closed down 0.13%. The mainstream price in Shandong remained stable at 11850 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The supply decreased due to increased losses, the macro - sentiment was positive, and the market stabilized. The price of butadiene oscillated, and the processing of synthetic rubber was in a loss. The weekly capacity utilization rate of China's high - cis butadiene rubber industry fell to around 68%. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The manufacturer's inventory decreased month - on - month, and the trader's inventory increased month - on - month [29]. - Investors should wait for it to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][30]. 11. Natural Rubber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of natural rubber rose 0.13%, and the main contract of 20 - grade rubber fell 0.08%. The Shanghai spot price remained stable at around 14400 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The macro - market sentiment improved, and there were continued disturbances on the supply side, with the market stabilizing and rising. Heavy rainfall in domestic and foreign production areas affected rubber tapping, and the raw material purchase price continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. The production of some unexpectedly shut - down enterprises resumed, driving a slight increase in the overall capacity utilization rate. The natural rubber inventory in China decreased this week, with both dark and light rubber inventories falling. It is estimated that Thailand's rubber production will increase by 2% to 4.89 million tons in 2025 [31][32]. - Investors should pay attention to long - position opportunities after a correction [32][33]. 12. PVC - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PVC closed down 0.38%, the spot price decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. The oversupply situation of PVC continued, but the room for further decline was limited, and it continued to fluctuate at the bottom. The number of domestic PVC enterprises under maintenance decreased week - on - week, and the supply increased. The operating rates of the main downstream pipe and profile industries continued to decline, and the operating rates of other products were relatively stable. The cost and profit were mainly affected by raw materials. Currently, the raw material price fell, while the PVC price rose slightly, and the PVC profit improved. The social inventory of PVC increased by 7.49% week - on - week to 7.763 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.52% [34][35]. - PVC is expected to fluctuate at the bottom [34][36]. 13. Urea - On the previous trading day, the main contract of urea closed flat. The price in Linyi, Shandong remained stable at 1720 yuan/ton, and the basis was stable. In the short term, the fundamentals changed little, and the market oscillated. In the medium term, a bullish view was maintained. The supply side saw a slight decline in the overall industry operating rate, but the supply remained at a high level. The main downstream compound fertilizer for autumn was in the production season, and the operating rate increased steadily. The operating rate of melamine decreased slightly. The total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 887,600 tons, lower than expected last week, and the inventory of urea ports was 483,000 tons, higher than expected last week [37][38]. - Urea is expected to fluctuate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [37][38]. 14. PX - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PX2509 fell 0.35%. The PXN spread was adjusted to 260 US dollars/ton, and the PX - MX spread was 120 US dollars/ton. The PX operating rate rose slightly to 82%, a month - on - month increase of 0.9%. Some refineries increased their loads or restarted. In June, the total import volume of PX in the Chinese mainland was about 765,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of about 1% and a year - on - year increase of about 34.4%. The international oil price oscillated weakly [39]. - PX is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [39]. 15. PTA - On the previous trading day, the main contract of PTA2509 fell 0.55%. The spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton, and the basis rate was 0.06%. Some PTA plants restarted or reduced their loads, with the PTA operating rate at 76.2%. The operating rate of polyester increased to 88.8%. The profit of PTA processing improved slightly to around 200 yuan/ton [40]. - PTA is expected to have some support below in the short term, and interval trading is recommended [40][42]. 16. Ethylene Glycol - On the previous trading day, the main contract of ethylene glycol fell 0.47%. The overall operating rate of ethylene glycol was 68.40%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6%. The operating rate of ethylene glycol produced by the oxalic acid catalytic hydrogenation method increased by 0.14%. The inventory at the main ports in East China was about 553,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons. The planned arrival volume at the main ports from August 11 to August 17 was about 141,000 tons. The downstream polyester operating rate was adjusted to 88.8%, and the operating rate of terminal looms was adjusted locally [43]. - Ethylene glycol is recommended for interval trading in the short term, and attention should be paid to port inventory and import changes [43]. 17. Short - Fiber - On the previous trading day, the main contract of short - fiber 2510 fell 0.22%. The operating rate of short - fiber plants rose to around 90.6%. The sales of polyester yarn improved, and the operating rates of downstream drawing, weaving, and dyeing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were 70%, 59%, and 65% respectively. The raw material inventory of terminal factories in Jiangsu and

Core Viewpoint - The geopolitical landscape is undergoing significant changes, marked by the breakdown of the US-India alliance and the thawing of US-Russia relations, indicating a potential shift in global power dynamics [1][9]. Group 1: US-India Relations - Trump signed an executive order imposing a 25% tariff on Indian imports, signaling a deterioration in US-India relations [1]. - Modi's visit to China, after seven years, is seen as an attempt to pressure the US regarding tariff negotiations, highlighting the unraveling of the US-led Indo-Pacific strategy [3]. - The initial optimism for a trade agreement between the US and India has dissipated due to harsh tariff conditions imposed by the US, leading to a breakdown in negotiations [3]. Group 2: US-Europe Relations - The US has sidelined Europe in the ongoing Russia-Ukraine ceasefire negotiations, with the US and Russia planning a bilateral meeting without European involvement [5]. - Trump's administration has expressed dissatisfaction with European military spending and trade deficits, viewing European contributions as inadequate [7]. - The EU's trade surplus with the US amounted to €198.2 billion last year, which contradicts Trump's "America First" policy [7]. Group 3: Global Geopolitical Shifts - The rise of populism and extreme right-wing movements in Western societies, along with increasing unilateralism, is contributing to a fragmented international order [9]. - Trump's tariffs and withdrawal from international agreements are exacerbating global tensions and signaling a potential shift towards a multipolar world [9][11]. - The outcome of these geopolitical changes presents both challenges and opportunities for China, as the US may seek to consolidate its alliances against China while also facing potential discontent from its allies [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's H1 2025 revenue was 2.922 billion RMB, a year-over-year decrease of 11.17%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 43.9931 million RMB, an increase of 160.82% year-over-year [1][5] - The company faced operational disruptions due to policy impacts but is expected to see a recovery in H2 2025, particularly in magnetic material exports [1][3] - The report highlights the strategic position of the rare earth magnetic material industry under the backdrop of "de-globalization" [1] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company's revenue was 2.922 billion RMB, with a net profit of 43.9931 million RMB and a non-recurring net profit of 31.594 million RMB [1][5] - Q2 2025 revenue was 1.461 billion RMB, showing a year-over-year decline of 10.75% but a quarter-over-quarter increase of 0.04% [1] Policy Impact - The company experienced a decline in overseas revenue due to export controls on heavy rare earth materials, with domestic revenue increasing by 5.62% and international revenue decreasing by 28.85% [2] - The overall revenue for magnetic materials in H1 2025 decreased by 14.93% year-over-year, with a gross margin of 9.39% [2] Market Outlook - The report anticipates a recovery in magnetic material exports in H2 2025, supported by the issuance of export licenses to several companies, including the report's subject [3] - Global demand for praseodymium and neodymium oxide is expected to grow, with projections of 119,700 tons and 129,000 tons for 2025 and 2026, respectively [3] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025-2027 has been revised downwards by 14.81%, 16.67%, and 19.01%, respectively, with expected profits of 198.4 million RMB, 333 million RMB, and 478 million RMB [4] - The target price is adjusted to 15.32 RMB, corresponding to a price-to-book ratio of 2.81 for 2025 [4]

Core Insights - The article highlights significant changes in the fund management industry, with over 1,630 funds experiencing manager changes this year, indicating a dynamic environment rather than a negative trend [1][3] - Su Wenjie, a former manager at Jiashi Fund, has made a notable transition to Guangfa Fund, where he has achieved impressive returns in a short period [4][6] Fund Management Changes - As of August 13, the total number of fund managers in the market reached 4,065, with an increase of 111 since the beginning of the year [3] - The article notes that over 920 fund managers have left their positions, while more than 610 new managers have been hired [1] Su Wenjie's Performance - Su Wenjie joined Guangfa Fund in April 2024 and took over management of several funds, achieving a total management scale of 5.835 billion yuan [4] - His long-term managed funds, such as Guangfa Advantage Growth and Guangfa Jufeng A, have shown returns of 20.97% and 17.09%, respectively [4] - Recently taken over funds, Guangfa Resource Selection A and Guangfa Growth Power Three-Year Holding A, have also performed well with returns of 7.35% and 8.10% [4] Investment Strategy - Su Wenjie’s investment strategy focuses on cyclical thinking, with top holdings in resource and chemical industry leaders [7] - His second-quarter operations included a reduction in positions due to trade war impacts, but he plans to restore positions to 80%-90% focusing on sectors like non-ferrous metals, military, chemicals, and new energy [7] Market Outlook - Su Wenjie anticipates that the ongoing trend of de-globalization will continue to drive up upstream commodity prices, with expectations for coordinated fiscal and monetary policies during China's economic recovery in 2025 [9] - His successful first year at Guangfa Fund reflects a broader industry trend where experienced fund managers with proven methodologies are becoming key focal points for capital flows [9]

Group 1: ETF Market Development - The "Zhaocai Cup" ETF live competition series aims to enhance investors' asset allocation and risk management skills, promoting the healthy development of the ETF market [1] - The event is organized by China Merchants Securities in collaboration with ten major fund companies and Panoramic Network [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold has shown strong performance over the past two years, exceeding initial expectations with a price increase of over 20% [2] - As of April 22, gold prices reached nearly $3,500, with trading volume on that day hitting 989 billion yuan, marking a fivefold increase compared to the past three years [2][3] - The current gold price is at historical highs, comparable to the peak in January 1980, indicating a stable support level above $3,100 [3][11] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors Impacting Gold - Geopolitical tensions, including the US-China trade policies and conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, contribute to gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4][6] - The ongoing trend of de-globalization and weakening dollar credibility are expected to sustain gold's long-term value [3][4] Group 4: Central Bank Actions - Central banks, including China's, have been increasing their gold reserves, with China purchasing 44 tons last year and continuing to add to its holdings [3][12] - The trend of central banks accumulating gold reflects a consensus on the asset's value amid declining trust in the dollar [3][12] Group 5: Investment Strategies and Instruments - Gold ETFs are highlighted as a convenient investment vehicle, with low entry barriers and good tracking performance, making them attractive to investors [19][20] - The introduction of new players, such as insurance asset management firms allowed to invest in gold, is expected to further support gold prices [18] Group 6: Economic Indicators and Future Outlook - The potential for US interest rate cuts could positively impact gold prices, although the likelihood of such cuts occurring within the year is considered low [15][17] - The relationship between gold and real interest rates remains significant, with historical data showing a strong negative correlation [16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities, providing insights into their market trends and investment strategies. It suggests different approaches for each market based on current economic conditions, policy changes, and supply - demand dynamics [5][9][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down. The 30 - year, 10 - year, and 2 - year main contracts declined by 0.31%, 0.04%, and 0.02% respectively, while the 5 - year main contract remained flat [5]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The central bank conducted 114.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on August 12, with a net withdrawal of 46.1 billion yuan. The Sino - US trade agreement made substantial progress, and the market risk appetite increased significantly [5]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trending bond futures market, and investors should remain cautious [6][7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM rose by 0.51%, 0.61%, 0.52%, and 0.31% respectively [8][9]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Three departments jointly issued a personal consumer loan fiscal subsidy policy. Although the domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, asset valuations are low, and the Chinese economy has sufficient resilience. Market sentiment has recently increased significantly [9]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and investors may consider going long on stock index futures [9][10]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 776.04, with a decline of 0.44%, and the night - session closed at 776.28. The main silver contract closed at 9,187, with a decline of 0.25%, and the night - session closed at 9205 [11]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" trends are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The Fed is expected to cut interest rates, providing new upward momentum for gold [11]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and investors may consider going long on gold futures [11][12]. Steel Products (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose slightly. The spot price of Tangshan billet was 3120 yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was 3260 - 3380 yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3470 - 3480 yuan/ton [13]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Policy changes have become the dominant factor in the market, and the price of finished products follows the price of coking coal. The downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still the core factors suppressing rebar prices. The expected steel industry stability policy may be a positive factor [13]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot price of PB powder was 788 yuan/ton, and the price of Super Special powder was 662 yuan/ton [15]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Policy has become the dominant factor, and iron ore prices follow coking coal prices. The high demand for molten iron supports iron ore prices, but the supply has increased, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern may weaken [15]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rose significantly [17]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The national energy administration's coal production verification policy has affected supply, causing some mines to shut down and driving up prices [17]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks and continue to hold previous long positions, while managing their positions carefully [17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract closed at 6110 yuan/ton, up 0.16%, and the main silicon - iron contract closed at 5820 yuan/ton, up 0.21% [19]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply of manganese ore has increased slightly, and the inventory has risen. The production of ferroalloys has continued to increase, but demand recovery is weak, and there is still oversupply in the short term [19]. - **Investment Strategy**: After a decline, investors can consider long positions when the spot market falls into a loss - making range [19][20]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil oscillated upward but was blocked by the moving average group [21]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the focus has shifted to the US - Russia talks, with geopolitical risks easing, leading to a decline in crude oil prices [22]. - **Investment Strategy**: Temporarily observe the main crude oil contract [23]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward, showing a weak trend [24]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The spread of ultra - low - sulfur fuel oil has become negative, indicating an oversupply. The expected increase in Singapore's arbitrage fuel oil and the increase in ARA inventory are negative for prices [25]. - **Investment Strategy**: Shorten the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil in the main fuel oil contract [26]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 0.72%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 12100 yuan/ton [27]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Raw material prices have rebounded, but production is still slightly loss - making. The market has declined with overall sentiment, waiting for the market to stabilize [27]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [27][28]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 0.89%, and the 20 - grade rubber contract rose 0.72%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to around 14700 yuan/ton [29]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The macro - market sentiment has cooled, and supply disruptions have temporarily eased. The supply is affected by heavy rainfall, and the cost support has strengthened [29]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to long - position opportunities after a decline [29][31]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.88%, and the spot price was raised by 30 yuan/ton [32]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The oversupply situation continues, but the downward space is limited, and it will continue to oscillate at the bottom [32]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market will oscillate at the bottom [32][35]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract rose 0.52%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was lowered to 1720 yuan/ton [36]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The short - term fundamentals have not changed much, and the market will oscillate. In the medium term, the outlook is bullish [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market will oscillate in the short term and be treated bullishly in the medium term [36][37]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 0.92%, with a PXN spread of 260 dollars/ton and a PX - MX spread of 120 dollars/ton [38]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The PX load has slightly increased, but the supply - demand situation has weakened in the short term, and the cost and demand support are insufficient [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider range - bound operations and pay attention to changes in crude oil costs and macro - policies [38]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 0.38%, and the spot price in East China was 4695 yuan/ton [39]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply has not changed much, demand is expected to weaken, and the cost support from crude oil has decreased. However, the processing fee is under pressure, and large producers are increasing production cuts [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to risk control [39]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 0.64% [40]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The overall operating load has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has increased slightly. However, overseas plant maintenance has increased, and imports may decrease [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider range - bound participation and pay attention to changes in port inventory and imports [40]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2510 main contract rose 0.25% [41]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply remains at a relatively high level, demand has improved, and the supply - demand contradiction is not significant [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may oscillate with costs, and investors should pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [41]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle chips 2510 main contract rose 0.44% [42]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: There have been more plant overhauls, and inventory has remained stable. The market is supported, but the main logic lies in the cost side [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate with the cost side, and investors should pay attention to risk control [43]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2601 contract closed at 1409 yuan/ton, up 5.31% [44]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Supply is expected to increase as previous overhauls are restored, and downstream demand is weak. The market is under pressure, but there is cost support from coking coal [44]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to position management due to price fluctuations caused by capital games [44]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 1073 yuan/ton, up 0.47% [45]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Production lines are stable, inventory is increasing, and downstream demand is weak. The market is expected to be weak in the short term [45]. - **Investment Strategy**: Go short in the short term, but be aware of capital - related disturbances before contract roll - over [45]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 2502 yuan/ton, up 0.85% [46]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Supply has increased as previous overhauls are restored, and inventory is stable. The market is gradually returning to the logic of stable spot prices [46][47]. - **Investment Strategy**: No specific strategy is provided in the text. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract closed at 5264 yuan/ton, up 0.73% [48]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Supply has decreased slightly, and port inventory is decreasing but still at a high level year - on - year. Downstream demand is weak [49]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [49][50]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract rose 2% to 82520 yuan/ton [51]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The suspension of mining at Ningde Times' mine has raised concerns about mining rights and costs, but the supply - demand surplus pattern has not changed. Demand has increased as the consumption season approaches [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is difficult to operate unilaterally. Non - participants should operate with a light position and control risks [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated upward, breaking through the moving average group. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 79160 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [53]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: There is a shortage of copper concentrates, and the expectation of a Fed interest - rate cut supports copper prices [54]. - **Investment Strategy**: Go long on the main Shanghai copper contract on pullbacks [54][55]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated, closing at 270690 yuan/ton, up 0.1% [56]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The supply of tin ore is tight, but there are expectations of复产 in the fourth quarter. Consumption is weak, and inventory is decreasing [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [56]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel rose 0.2% to 122870 yuan/ton [57]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The price of nickel ore has weakened, and the supply of nickel iron is in surplus. Stainless steel is strong on the futures market but weak in the spot market, and consumption is weak [57]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to oscillate [57]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract rose 0.72% to 3091 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.90% to 8476 yuan/ton [58]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The USDA report has reduced the US soybean planting area and production. The supply of soybeans is expected to be loose, and the cost has increased. The demand for soybean meal is expected to increase slightly, while the demand for soybean oil may be suppressed [58][59]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long positions on soybean meal after a pullback and take profit on long positions of soybean oil at high levels [59]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil has risen for three consecutive days [60]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Malaysian palm oil inventory has increased, but exports have also increased. Indonesia plans to implement a B50 biodiesel policy in 2026. Domestic palm oil inventory is high [60][61]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider taking profit on long palm oil positions [61]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed prices have fallen, but futures prices have rebounded from the low. The prices of domestic rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil have changed [62]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: China has implemented anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed, and the supply of rapeseed may be tightened. Global rapeseed production and inventory are expected to change [62]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider taking profit on long positions of rapeseed products [62][63]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton oscillated, and overnight, overseas cotton rose 2.4% [64]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The USDA report has reduced US and global cotton production and inventory estimates. Chinese cotton production is expected to increase, and textile exports are under pressure [64][65]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is expected to be strong in the short term [64][65][66]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou sugar oscillated, and overnight, overseas raw sugar rose 2.5% for three consecutive days [67]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: Brazil's sugar production has increased, and India and Thailand are expected to have good harvests. China's sugar inventory is low, but imports will be high before October [67][68]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is recommended to observe the market [67][68]. Apples - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures oscillated at a high level [70]. - **Policy and Economic Conditions**: The expectation of a production reduction has been disproven, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. The price of early - maturing apples has declined [70][71]. - **Investment Strategy**: Observe the market [70][72]. Pigs -