Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) came out with quarterly earnings of $1.14 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $1.02 per share. This compares to earnings of $1.07 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items. This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of +11.76%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this bank holding company would post earnings of $0.93 per share when it actually produced earnings of $0.98, delivering a surprise of +5.38%. Over the last four qu ...

瑞银：预计2026年6月欧元对美元将升至1.23 金十数据7月16日讯，瑞银策略师表示，对于寻求分散美元持仓的全球投资者而言，欧元将成为核心替 代货币。因此，他们上调了对欧元汇率的预期。瑞银预计，到2026年6月，欧元对美元汇率将升至 1.23，高于2025年底1.21的预期水平；而此前对这两个时间点的预期分别为1.20和1.16。他们称："对于 寻求分散美元持仓的全球投资者来说，欧元是突出的'默认'替代选择。" ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The steel market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [3]. - The iron ore fundamentals are weakening, and the price may face pressure [7]. - The coke market sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [10]. - The coking coal sentiment has slightly decreased, and it is expected to operate within a range [14]. - The ferroalloy supply - demand contradiction is limited, and it is expected to operate within a range [18]. Group 3: Summaries by Variety Steel (including rebar and hot - rolled coil) - **Rebar**: The urban work conference was bearish as it didn't release stimulus signals and confirmed the end of the real - estate incremental era. Production and apparent demand decreased month - on - month, with total inventory slightly down, showing obvious off - season characteristics. The transaction logic has shifted from industrial to macro - sentiment and policy - expectation logic, and it will operate within the range of [3090, 3130] [1][4][5]. - **Hot - rolled coil**: Production and apparent demand decreased slightly month - on - month, and inventory changed little. The supply - demand is relatively balanced with limited fundamental contradictions. After the urban work conference, market sentiment declined, but later political bureau meetings may provide stimulus. It will operate within the range of [3230, 3270] [1][5]. Iron Ore - The demand side shows a decline in hot - metal production, which is expected to continue to decline slowly. The supply side has an increase in both arrivals and shipments, with more shipments to come. The overall supply - demand structure is neutral - weak. The urban meeting was below expectations, and the short - term market may return to fundamental trading. Short - term observation is recommended, and short positions can be arranged in the medium term. The price range is [750, 780] [1][8][9]. Coke - The first round of spot price increase occurred, and coking profit slightly improved. The fundamentals changed little. Independent coking enterprise production declined recently, but steel - mill coking production remained high. High hot - metal production guaranteed raw - material demand. Total inventory decreased month - on - month but remained at a high level. Market sentiment cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [1490, 1520] [1][12][13]. Coking Coal - Domestic coking coal production recently decreased, and the absolute level is close to that of last year. Some shut - down mines will resume production in July, increasing supply later. Upstream inventory decreased month - on - month, and spot trading improved. Market sentiment improved overall. Short - term macro - expectations cooled slightly, and it will operate within the range of [890, 920] [1][16][17]. Ferroalloys (including ferromanganese and ferrosilicon) - **Ferromanganese**: The fundamentals show increasing supply and decreasing demand, and inventory pressure is not significantly relieved. Manganese ore currently supports the price, but electricity costs in many production areas have decreased, and some mines' far - month quotes have slightly dropped, so there is an expectation of cost loosening. Although hot - metal production is at a high level, actual demand may decline in the off - season. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, and attention should be paid to the 6000 yuan/ton mark. The price range is [5690, 5880] [1][20][21]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The fundamentals show a decline in both supply and demand. After the reduction of power prices in production areas, the cost line has further decreased. Factory inventory is relatively high, and some factories plan to resume production, while the downstream off - season has arrived, increasing the difficulty of inventory reduction. Short - term trading is sentiment - driven, with limited supply - demand contradictions, and it is expected to operate within the range of [5400, 5590] [1][20][21].

| 7月16日 | 收盘价（元/克） | 当日涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 持仓量（手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪金主力 | 776.66 | -0.20% | 259450 | 200708 | 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 【黄金期货最新行情】 美国银行：26%的人认为美国财长贝森特最有可能成为下一任美联储主席，17%的人认为是美联储前理 事沃什，14%的人认为是美联储理事沃勒，7%的人认为是白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特。 美联储哈玛克：目前尚无迫切降息的必要。 7月15日，英伟达官宣将恢复H20在中国的销售，为中国推出新的完全合规的GPU。英伟达称，美国政 府已经向英伟达保证授予许可，公司希望尽快开始交付。 【机构观点】 金瑞期货：上一个交易日贵金属价格多数下跌，COMEX黄金期货跌0.85%报3330.50美元/盎司， COMEX白银期货跌1.95%报37.99美元/盎司。当前美国经济数据偏强，6月联储会议纪要指向联储大部 分官员仍不急于降息。关税方面，美国政府公布了对一系列国家以及产品的税收方案，超过了市场预 期，但由于美国把时间宽限到8月1日， ...

本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议， 出处为瑞 达研究瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 铝类产业日报 2025/7/16 助理研究员: 陈思嘉 期货从业资格号F03118799 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 20,475.00 | +45.00↑ 氧化铝期货主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 3,111.00 | -54.00↓ | | | 本月-下月合约价差:沪铝(日,元/吨) | 75.00 | +40.00↑ 本月-下月合约价差:氧化铝(日,元/吨) | 10.00 | -88.00↓ | | | 主力合约持仓量:沪铝(日,手) | 194,458.00 | -10736.00↓ 主力合约持仓量:氧化铝(日,手) | 239,364.00 | +6732.00↑ | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, along with the increasing operating rate of domestic refined tin production capacity, but the decrease in refined tin inventories both at home and abroad compared to last week, may lead to an adjustment in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and resistance levels [3]. - The positive basis and negative monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the negative (0 - 3) and positive (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin, are within reasonable ranges. Due to various factors, it is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [6][11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - On July 11, Wa State, Myanmar, decided that the first batch of 40 - 50 mines would resume production after paying fees (with an initial incremental output of no more than 10,000 metal tons and a transmission period of 2 - 3 months, totaling 108 mines). Alphamin Resources announced the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in North Kivu Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo, on April 9 (with production volumes of 17,300 and 20,000 tons in 2024 and 2025 respectively). These factors may cause the domestic tin ore production (import) volume in July to decrease (increase) month - on - month. Coupled with the decline in domestic tin concentrate processing fees, it may indicate a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [3][22]. - China's recycled tin production in July may increase month - on - month [23][25]. - The operating rates of refined tin production capacity in Jiangxi and China (Yunnan) increased (remained flat) compared to last week; China's refined tin production (inventory) volume in July increased (decreased) month - on - month [3][29]. - Indonesia's Ministry of Finance's mining license approval is affected by a corruption investigation and may reduce long - term export quotas, causing the export volume in July to decrease month - on - month. China's refined tin import (export) volume in July may increase (decrease) month - on - month [3][33]. Demand Side - The operating rate (inventory) of China's tin solder production capacity in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][36]. - China's solder strip import (export) volume in July may increase (increase) month - on - month [3][38][40]. - China's tinplate production (import, export) volume in July may increase (decrease, decrease) month - on - month [3][44]. Inventory - The social inventory of China's refined tin decreased compared to last week. The inventories of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, Chinese tin ingot social inventory, and LME refined tin also decreased compared to last week [12][14]. Price and Spread - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and within a reasonable range, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The (0 - 3) contract spread of LME tin is negative and within a reasonable range, while the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive and within a reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years [6][11]. Investment Strategy - It is recommended that investors hold their previous short positions cautiously and pay attention to the support level around 248,000 - 260,000 and the resistance level around 274,000 - 280,000 for Shanghai tin, and the support level around 30,000 - 32,000 and the resistance level around 34,000 - 36,000 for London tin [3]. - It is suggested to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities regarding the basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin, as well as the (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads of LME tin [6][11].

贵金属早报—— 2025年7月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 项唯一 从业资格证号： F3051846 投资咨询证号： Z0015764 联系方式：0575-85226759 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 黄金 1、基本面：温和CPI数据一度提振美国股债齐涨，金价回落；美国三大股指收盘涨 跌不一，欧洲三大股指收盘全线下跌；美债收益率集体上涨，10年期美债收益率涨 4.80个基点报4.481%；美元指数涨0.53%报98.63，离岸人民币对美元贬值报 7.1846；COMEX黄金期货跌0.85%报3330.50美元/盎司；中性 2、基差：黄金期货780.4，现货775.8，基差-4.6，现货贴水期货；偏空 3、库存：黄金期货仓单28872千克，增加15千克；偏空 4、盘面：20日均线向下，k线在20日均线上方；中性 ...

伦铜小幅走低，沪铜窄幅震荡，中国经济数据表现向好，提振需求预期，机构表示沪铜企稳等待新驱 动，预计短期市场将.....点击阅读。 相关链接 期货热点追踪 ...

基本面： 周三（7月16日）亚盘时段，现货黄金徘徊于隔夜回吐区间低位震荡，目前交投于3327美元附近。周二金价下跌0.5%，收报3324.68美元/盎司，因美国6月 CPI增幅为 1 月份以来最大，帮助美元指数创下近三周新高，美债收益率升至6周高位，打压金价走势。美元指数在过去四个交易日连续上涨，周二最高触 及98.70，创6月23日以来新高。美元的强势使得以美元计价的黄金对持有其他货币的投资者变得更加昂贵，从而对金价构成压力。 美债收益率的持续上涨在周二也打压金价的走势。周二美国10年期公债收益率上涨至4.487%，创6月11日以来最高，30年期公债收益率触及5.022%的六周峰 值。收益率的上升反映了市场对通胀预期的调整以及对美联储政策的重新评估。损益平衡通胀率的全面上升进一步表明，市场预计未来通胀压力将持续存 在。五年期和十年期损益平衡通胀率分别达到2.501%和2.411%，为近期高点。债券收益率的攀升通常对黄金不利，因为黄金作为无息资产在高收益率环境 中吸引力下降。然而，当前收益率上升的背景是通胀预期的温和回升，而非经济过热，这为黄金提供了一定的支撑。 日线级别，金价昨日录得阴线收盘回吐此前涨势，令 ...

巴克莱将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.5%；瑞银将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4%上调至4.7%；澳新银行将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.2%上调至5.1%；摩根士丹利将中国2025年GDP增速预期从4.5%上调至4.8%。 ...