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特朗普口风变了,欧洲老朋友提醒中国:切莫相信,美国还没被打疼
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 06:03
让人意外的是,特朗普紧接着又改口了,当地时间4月25号,他在空军一号飞机上表示,除非中国做出 实质性让步,否则不会取消对华加税。远的不说,就说近一个周以来,特朗普先是承认对华加税过高, 表示下步将大幅降税,并喊话中国与美方达成协议,眼下又食言而肥,称"不会取消对华加税",这种自 相矛盾的说法,明显不是正常人所为,让人对特朗普政府对外政策的不确定性产生了深深担忧。从美股 的行情来看,特朗普每一次对华改口都有迹可循。本月中旬,特朗普对华加税145%后,美股、美元指 数大跌,特斯拉等股票损失数百亿美元,于是特朗普紧急降温,对75国"暂缓加税",并对美国进口电子 产品进行关税豁免。 4月21号美股开盘大跌,其中道琼斯指数跌超700点,纳斯达克指数跌2.6%,标普跌超2%,美元指数跌 到98。特朗普随即改口称对华税率太高,计划降税,市场松口气后,美股连续4天上扬。眼下特朗普的 态度变化,是趁着美股的涨势,对华卷土重来。对此中国的老朋友希腊给出了建议,希腊前财长亚斯尼 ·瓦鲁法基斯支持中国继续在关税问题上对抗美国,理由是特朗普的关税政策不是简单的中美博弈,而 是美国统治阶级为了维护自身权益的"主动策略",如果加税的代价由 ...
大摩:中美关税缓和路径预判、以及亚洲国家如何站队
2025-04-29 02:39
大摩:中美关税缓和路径预判、以及亚洲国家如何站队 摘要 Q&A 如何预测中美关税缓和的路径及其对美国经济的影响? 当前中美关税水平难以持续,美国经济受关税冲击严重,导致交易停滞、出口 受损。美国从中国进口商品价值约 4,500 亿美元,这些商品在美国销售额至少 在 8,000 亿到 1 万亿美元之间,但目前贸易往来已完全停滞。此外,美国对中 国 1,500 亿美元的出口也陷入停滞,对美国经济产生重大影响。因此,我们预 测今年 6 月底美对中关税将从 145%降至 60%,三季度降至 45%,年底至 34%,甚 至可能更快降至 34%。即便关税降至 60%,交易也难以恢复,因为中国企业不会 购买美国商品,而中国的反制关税也会持续存在。 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多一手海外资讯和海外投行报告加V:shuinu9870 更多资料加入知识星球:水木调研纪要 ...
野村中国首席经济学家陆挺对话腾讯财经《经济大家说》
野村集团· 2025-04-28 03:50
谈及房地产行业,陆挺认为尽管当前房地产行业仍处于调整期,但在人口向大城市集聚、老旧住房 更新需求释放等趋势下,房地产市场仍有很大发展空间。他建议,剩余城市的限购限售可以进一步 取消,全面释放市场活力。同步加快行业债务出清进程,强化保交房政策执行力度,通过"保交付、 稳预期"重构购房者信心。 本文节选自腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对野村中国首席经济学家陆挺博士视频专访的专篇报道,请点击"阅读原 文"查看原报道。 2025年一季度中国经济以5.4%的增速超预期开局,彰显了中国经济在复杂环境下的韧性。然而,持 续的中美关税战仍为接下来的经济走势增添了不确定性。 面对内外挑战,野村中国首席经济学家陆挺在与腾讯财经《经济大家说》栏目对话时指出,中美贸易冲 突升级可能导致中国出口增速下降,叠加房地产行业萎缩,二季度起GDP增速或放缓。对此,他认为接 下来提振经济,需要进一步刺激消费,并稳住房地产。 在经历了两轮"以旧换新"政策后,耐用品刺激政策边际效应逐步递减,促消费政策可转向耐用品消 费之外,陆挺认为"推动养老体系改革和保障水平提升,才是最具效能的促消费工具。"他进一步给 出具体建议:提升农民养老金,通过增强中低收入群体 ...
多空交织,豆粕冲高回落
Da Yue Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 03:01
交易咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】1091号 多空交织,豆粕冲高回落 (豆粕周报4.21-4.25) 大越期货投资咨询部:王明伟 从业资格证号:F0283029 投资咨询资格证号:Z0010442 联系方式:0575-85226759 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场有风险,投资需谨慎。 4 基本面数据 5 持仓数据 基本面影响因素概览 | 项目 | 概况 | 驱动 | 下周预期 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 天气 | 阿根廷大豆产区天气短期 | 偏空 | 南美大豆产区天气短期正 | | | 改善 | | 常。中性或偏空 | | 进口成本 | 美豆震荡回升,中美关税 | 中性 | 进口成本预计震荡偏强,中 | | | 战落地 | | 性或偏多 | | 油厂压榨 | 豆粕需求短期改善,油厂 | 偏多 | 需求短期回暖,油厂开机预 | | | 压榨量低位回升 | | 计维持继续回升,偏空 | | 成交 | 下游远期备货积极性回升 | 偏多 | 市场五 ...
山金期货原油日报-20250428
Shan Jin Qi Huo· 2025-04-28 02:48
更新时间:2025年04月28日08时11分 | 原油 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 指标 较上日 较上周 | | 单位 | 4月25日 | | | | | | 绝对值 百分比 绝对值 百分比 | | | | | | | | | Sc 2.70 原油期货 | | 元/桶 | 496.10 | | 0.55% | 5.40 | 1.10% | | 0.40 | WTI | 美元/桶 | 63.17 | | 0.64% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.41 | Brent | 美元/桶 | 66.91 | | 0.62% | #N/A | #N/A | | 0.01 | Sc-WTI | 美元/桶 | 5.67 | | 0.09% | #N/A | #N/A | | 内外价差 | Sc-Brent | 美元/桶 | 1.93 | -0.00 | -0.26% | #N/A | #N/A | | 1.81 | Brent-WTI | 美元/桶 | 3.74 | | 93.32% | #N/A ...
美国没料到,北京迎来稀客,中国的一块心病去了,中方走了一步妙棋
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-28 02:35
Group 1 - The Swiss Foreign Minister Cassis's visit to China is significant amid the complex international situation, particularly in the context of the US-China trade war [1][5] - The US initiated a tariff war against China, leading to retaliatory measures from China, with tariffs on some US goods reaching 125% and US tariffs on Chinese goods reaching as high as 245% [1][3] - The US's attempts to rally allies against China have largely failed, as countries like the EU and Canada are seeking closer ties with China instead [3][5] Group 2 - Japan's recent diplomatic engagement with China, including a visit from the leader of the Komeito party, reflects a desire to strengthen bilateral relations amid the US's aggressive tariff policies [5][7] - Cassis emphasized that trade wars do not bring prosperity but rather instability and conflict, advocating for multilateralism and free trade [5][7] - Switzerland is accelerating negotiations for a free trade agreement with China, indicating a growing economic partnership that could counterbalance US isolationist policies [7]
A股延续反弹,黄金冲高回落 | 周度量化观察
22002255年年44月月2211日日--22002255年年44月月2255日日基基金金投投顾顾观观点点 本周中美关税战有缓和迹象推动风险偏好回升,A股延续反弹,黄金冲高回落,债市平稳运 行,全球股市普遍上涨。具体来看,本周市场有以下几个重要方面: 01 本周市场延续反弹,上半周上涨,下半周在指数点位接近修复4月7日跳空缺口时,市场有所 犹豫、走势震荡。基本面方面,A股上市公司一季报披露进入高峰期,对市场整体未形成显 著影响。流动性方面,沪深两市日均成交额近1.12万亿元,相比上周有明显提升。成交金额 的放大代表了流动性的恢复,对流动性反应敏感的小盘表现好于大盘,本周表现从高到低依 次为国证2000、中证1000、中证500、沪深300。从行业表现看,汽车、美容护理、基础 护工表现较好。今日中共中央政治局会议提出了系列宏观政策,要加紧实施更加积极有为的 宏观政策、适时降准降息等。 02 AA股股延延续续反反弹弹,,黄黄金金冲冲高高回回落落 债市方面,本周资金面均衡偏松,债券市场整体震荡为主。本周市场影响因素包括消息面、 债券供给和资金面。消息面较多,小作文传政治局会议地产政策以及美国表态降低对华关税 等, ...
石油化工行业周报:PDH装置存在降负预期,丙烯盈利存在较好支撑-20250427
Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the petrochemical industry, particularly regarding propylene profitability and the expected tightening of supply-demand dynamics [4][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights the anticipated reduction in operating rates for PDH units due to high costs associated with U.S. propane imports, which could lead to a significant drop in propylene supply [4][5]. - It emphasizes the potential for increased imports from Japan and South Korea, although these may not fully compensate for the domestic supply gap [4][5]. - The report suggests that the overall profitability of PDH units remains low, and future tariffs could delay or cancel planned new capacity [4][5]. Summary by Sections Upstream Sector - Brent crude oil prices closed at $66.87 per barrel, a decrease of 1.60% from the previous week, while WTI prices fell by 2.57% to $63.02 per barrel [4][22]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 244,000 barrels, while gasoline inventories decreased by 4.476 million barrels [25][22]. - The report notes a stable day rate for self-elevating drilling rigs, indicating a recovery trend in the oil service sector [4][22]. Refining Sector - The report indicates an increase in overseas refined oil crack spreads, with Singapore's refining margin rising to $10.75 per barrel [4][22]. - The profitability of domestic refining products is expected to improve gradually as economic recovery progresses [4][22]. Polyester Sector - PTA profitability has increased, while polyester filament profitability has decreased, indicating mixed performance within the polyester supply chain [4][22]. - The report suggests that the polyester industry may see improvements in the medium to long term as new capacity comes online [4][22]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading refining companies such as Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, and Dongfang Shenghong due to favorable competitive dynamics [4][17]. - It also highlights the potential for valuation recovery in companies like Satellite Chemical and Tongkun Co., given the expected improvements in the industry [4][17].
农林牧渔行业周报:2025Q1农业板块公募重仓持股占比下降,中宠股份获逆势增持
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-04-27 12:23
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture sector is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The agriculture sector's public fund heavy holdings have decreased in Q1 2025, but there is an expectation for a rebound in Q2 2025 due to enhanced investment logic driven by the US-China tariff escalation [4][13] - The livestock sector shows low valuation recovery potential, while the pet sector's domestic brand growth logic continues to strengthen [6][22][24] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - In Q1 2025, the public fund heavy holdings in the agriculture sector decreased, with total market value dropping to 12,367 billion yuan, a 0.40% decrease quarter-on-quarter, and accounting for 1.69% of the A-share market [4][13] - The heavy holdings in the agriculture sector represented 0.40% of the total public fund stock investment, down from 0.44% in Q4 2023 [4][13] Weekly Insights - The low valuation of the pig sector presents a buying opportunity, supported by a recovery in consumption and macro policies [22] - The feed sector benefits from the post-cycle of poultry and livestock, with strong overseas demand supporting prices [22] Market Performance (April 21-25) - The agriculture index underperformed the market by 0.72 percentage points, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56% while the agriculture index fell by 0.16% [25][29] - The pet food sector led the gains, with individual stocks like Zhongchong Co. and Guibao Pet rising significantly [25][31] Price Tracking (April 21-25) - The average price of live pigs was 14.95 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg from the previous week, while the average price of white strip meat increased by 0.05 yuan/kg to 19.31 yuan/kg [36] - The average price of beef rose to 68.52 yuan/kg, reflecting a 0.84% increase [36][43] Key News (April 21-25) - The number of breeding sows at the end of Q1 2025 was 40.39 million, a 1.0% decrease quarter-on-quarter but a 1.2% increase year-on-year, indicating stable production capacity [33]
中方拒绝与美会晤,特朗普电话被怼,大规模砍单反制美国关税
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-04-27 08:26
G20财长会议上,中方代表团明确拒绝美国财长会面请求,而与九国展开对话,此举被视为对特朗普145%超高关税的强硬回应。 面对中方冷处理,特朗普急称"接到北京来电"却被直接驳斥,同时中国正大规模取消美国订单,从农产品到能源全面反制。 中美关税交锋背后有何战略考量?对话被拒绝的真正原因是什么? 作者-凯 冷眼相待,拒绝搭台 华盛顿会议厅内,美国财长贝森特的表情像是吃了苦瓜一般难看。他手边那张空荡荡的会谈安排表,仿佛在无声地嘲笑着他的自信。 原本预期的中美高层对话,变成了一场单相思的尴尬。中国财政部长蓝佛安虽然确实到达华盛顿参加G20财长会议,但他的日程表上,唯独美国这一栏画了 个大大的叉。 前言 更让贝森特心塞的是,中方代表团在这两天竟与九个国家和国际组织安排了一对一会晤,唯独将美国排除在外。这种明显的"选择性沟通",用行动传递出一 个再清晰不过的信号:中国无意在此时与美国坐下来谈。 会议期间,蓝佛安发言直指关税战对全球经济的破坏性影响,强调中方将坚定维护以世贸组织为基础的多边贸易体系。台下的各国代表纷纷点头,而美方代 表则神情尴尬。 贝森特此前还通过媒体放出风来,说要与中方进行"面对面交流",殊不知中方对这种带 ...